Assessing The Senators’ Center Situation

The Senators addressed a significant internal matter this week by securing a four-year contract extension for center Shane Pinto worth $30MM. The deal guarantees Ottawa’s center depth until at least 2030, as Tim Stützle and Dylan Cozens are already signed until then with cap hits similar to Pinto’s new deal ($8.35MM for Stützle and $7.1MM for Cozens). With the middle of the ice locked in Ottawa for the foreseeable future, it’s fair to wonder how the centers will line up moving forward.

Pinto’s $7.5MM cap hit certainly caught some attention across the league. Still, with the salary cap expected to rise significantly over the coming years, it’s clear that the NHL’s economic landscape will look very different soon. AFP Analytics had projected Pinto to earn nearly $6MM annually on a five-year extension; however, that estimate was made before Pinto started this season with seven goals in six games – although he has just two in 13 contests since. Ottawa’s current line combinations have Pinto centering the third line, although it’s given almost identical ice time to Cozens’ second line.

With Pinto’s increase in usage, it’s fair to wonder how Cozens would respond to being moved down the lineup. When he is playing well, Cozens is a terrific transition player who does a lot of damage off the rush and can tuck away garbage goals. However, when he is off his game, he doesn’t do enough away from the puck to justify a top-six job, and his defensive work is subpar. The same can’t be said for Pinto, who, granted, doesn’t have the same offensive track record as Cozens, but plays a better two-way game and can still get to the dirty areas of the ice to clean up rebounds.

The dynamic down the middle for Ottawa will be fascinating to watch in the coming year or two, particularly if Pinto can maintain his current offensive pace. Pinto’s career high in points is 37 from last year, while Cozens’ career high came in 2022-23 when he had 31 goals and 37 assists for 68 in 81 games. Since that season, Cozens has regressed offensively, tallying just 47 points in each of the last two seasons. However, since being acquired in the trade from the Sabres last March, Cozens has registered 12 goals and 18 assists in 39 games, which translates to a 63-point pace over an 82-game season. If Cozens can maintain his offensive production going forward, it would likely solidify him as the Senators’ second-line center, unless Pinto takes a massive step offensively.

Pinto’s overall game is probably the best suited for third-line duties out of all the Senators’ pivots. Pinto has been in the role for a few years now and has excelled with his terrific two-way play. He takes on tough matchups, kills penalties, and takes the bulk of the defensive zone starts. Examining this raises the question of whether Ottawa would be best served by maintaining the status quo in the future, as it best suits the players’ skill sets.

Then, there’s the morale factor. It’s tough to say what was promised behind closed doors, but a safe bet is that Pinto knows his role with Ottawa for the foreseeable future, and clearly, whatever that role is, it suits him just fine. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have signed for another four seasons. Hypothetically, even if signing in Ottawa wasn’t Pinto’s first choice, he did give up two UFA seasons to do so, which suggests he probably doesn’t dislike the current setup or his assigned role. There’s also the possibility that Ottawa had to overpay Pinto to keep him in a lesser role. Pinto is aware of the situation; he can see the depth at the center position and likely understands that not everyone gets to make flashy plays or be on the top power play and in the top six. Pinto knows his role and signed up for it, which makes it easier to keep him in the 3C position.

The same can’t be said for Cozens, who didn’t sign up for a demotion with the Senators, nor did he sign with the Senators at all. Cozens agreed to a seven-year deal in Buffalo before he was traded to Ottawa, meaning he didn’t choose the team or the role he’d play there and was thrown into both. Now, Cozens probably isn’t too upset about being moved from a perennial losing team to one that is finding its identity and developing as a group. But, from an outsider’s perspective, the chance of him being demoralized with a third-line role is much higher than with Pinto, who has already been in that role and signed up for another four years of it.