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Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars

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Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Stars.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Thomas Harley – Harley broke out in a big way last season, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the 22-year-old as he could be in line for a big payday this summer. Harley had played just 40 NHL games before last season, but dressed in 79 games last year averaging over 21 minutes a game and posting 15 goals and 32 assists. The Syracuse, New York native is mobile for his size and keeps things simple with the puck but does have an offensive pulse. He has played mostly even-strength minutes in Dallas, and likely has more to offer on special teams should he be given an opportunity. Harley could be in line for a long-term extension with an AAV in the range of $5.5MM to $6MM, however, given the Stars’ cap crunch, he might need to settle for a bridge deal.

D Nils Lundkvist – Lundkvist is another two-way defenseman on the Stars’ backend and like many of the others he is mobile and plays a simple offensive game. Lundkvist won’t light up the scoresheet but his a good in the offensive zone keeping plays alive and getting pucks to the net. He is also a solid passer and plays a relatively safe style, taking care of his duties with and without the puck. Depending on the status of Tanev, Lundkvist could see a promotion next season and will likely receive a bridge deal this summer given the Stars’ cap crunch.

F Sam Steel – Steel was expected to be an offensive player in the NHL when he was drafted in the first round back in 2016. However, he’s never been able to find much scoring success, topping out at 28 points in 65 games last season. He’s bounced around to three organizations in the past few seasons but is still just 26 years old and has carved out an NHL role as a bottom-six forward who can provide energy and plays a fast game. Steel signed last summer for one year and $850K, however, this summer he should be able to find a multi-year deal and double his salary.

Other RFAs:  F Oskar Back, G Matt Murray

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Matt Duchene – Duchene bounced back to form in 2023-24 and delivered everything that Dallas was hoping for when they signed him to a one-year $3MM deal last summer. Duchene can still skate, and remains a threat on the power play, off the rush and in tight areas. He posted 25 goals and 40 assists in 80 games last year and has expressed an interest in returning to the Stars. The interest is mutual according to reports and it seems very likely that both sides can reach a multi-year deal in the range of $4MM – $5MM per season.

D Jani Hakanpää – Hakanpää had the unfortunate luck of having a career-worst season as he approached unrestricted free agency. The 32-year-old Finnish defenseman has been a solid contributor on the Stars’ blueline since the 2021-22 season but dressed in just 64 games in the regular season and wasn’t available in the playoffs due to injury. When he was healthy, he remained a solid third-pair defenseman and an excellent penalty killer as his big body can disrupt passing and block shots. Hakanpää isn’t a great skater and isn’t particularly good with the puck, but for a team looking for a safe, stay-at-home defenseman, he could be a good option.

D Chris Tanev – Tanev fit in seamlessly with the Stars after he came over to the team on February 28. He played predominantly at even strength and on the penalty kill and remained one of the best shot blockers in the NHL. Tanev can still skate and remains a good option to take on the other team’s best players, he leads by example and isn’t afraid to get physical. Any team that signs Tanev to a multi-year deal may have to contend with the backend of his contract becoming an albatross as players that play the same style as Tanev typically don’t age that well. That being said, Tanev will still fetch a few years on his next deal, likely north of $3MM per season.

Other UFAs: D Gavin Bayreuther, F Nicholas Caamano, C Fredrik Karlstrom, RW Joe Pavelski, D Alex Petrovic, D Derrick Pouliot, C Scott Reedy, D Jerad Rosburg, RW Craig Smith, G Scott Wedgewood

Projected Cap Space

Dallas has been a great team for a long time, but this summer might be the one in which they take a step back. The Stars have just over $16MM available under the salary cap and will have multiple holes to fill. If they are to sign a few of their pending free agents, that will leave them with very little space to plug holes in the lineup. However, the Stars are fortunate to have players like Mavrik Bourque in the AHL who are ready to step into an NHL lineup. This summer will be crucial for Stars general manager Jim Nill to maximize the window in which Dallas can continue to be a Stanley Cup contender.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Morning Notes: Golden Knights, Red Wings, Drouin

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The Vegas Golden Knights have reportedly been in talks with the Boston Bruins about acquiring goaltender Linus Ullmark (as per Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia). The news is a bit surprising given the Golden Knights’ depth at the position, however, Vegas has received interest in their own goaltenders and might see Ullmark as a way to improve their netminding in the short term.

Boston has reportedly been looking at a center in exchange for Ullmark, and Vegas could potentially make that happen although it would create a hole in their forward group. The Golden Knights currently have Adin Hill and Logan Thompson under contract for next season, however, neither goalie was able to grab the net last season and both men posted save percentages below .910. It’s always interesting to see Vegas pop up in trade negotiations as they have a recent history of getting the players that they target, and Ullmark would certainly solidify the position for the team for the next couple of seasons.

In other morning notes:

  • Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia is reporting that the Detroit Red Wings have had talks with the Boston Bruins regarding goaltender Linus Ullmark. Garrioch didn’t specify when the trade talks took place, but it is possible they happened before Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman said that he wasn’t interested in a veteran goalie who wouldn’t be with Detroit in 2-3 years (as per Sean Shapiro). Yzerman also told the media he wasn’t opposed to improving Detroit’s goaltending if something made sense, and Ullmark would be a dramatic improvement over any of the other netminders in Detroit’s depth chart. Detroit gave up 274 goals last season, finishing 24 out of 32 teams.
  • Colorado Avalanche writer Adrian Dater tweeted that he believes the Avalanche will re-sign forward Jonathan Drouin. Dater called his speculation “an educated guess” but added that there are still conversations between the team and the 29-year-old pending unrestricted free agent. Drouin came over to the Avalanche last summer as a free agent, signing a bargain one-year contract for $825K. That deal was an absolute steal for Colorado as Drouin regained his offensive form and tallied 19 goals and 37 assists. Any long-term deal with Drouin will carry a certain degree of risk given his play in previous years, however, he should be able to fetch a short-term commitment this summer with a healthy AAV.

Senators Notes: Hamonic, Brannstrom, Bernard-Docker

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Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia is reporting that the Ottawa Senators are likely to buy out veteran defenseman Travis Hamonic when the buyout window opens after the Stanley Cup is awarded. The 33-year-old was brought back last summer by former Senators general manager Pierre Dorion and was largely a disaster registering just six points in 48 games.

On top of his poor offensive output, Hamonic was a liability on the ice, posting dreadful possession numbers with a CF% of 43.2% and an xGF% of 41.5%. The Senators don’t have many effective right-shot defensemen but can ill-afford to roll Hamonic back out next season for nearly 15 minutes per game. Hamonic is owed $1.1MM next year meaning a buyout would cost Ottawa $366,667 in each of the next two seasons. Ottawa would save $733,333 next year which would certainly help as they look to address their goaltending.

In other Ottawa Senators notes:

  • Garrioch also reported that Ottawa is trying to move Erik Brannstrom prior to the deadline for issuing a qualifying offer. The 24-year-old was a central piece of the Mark Stone trade and has never lived up to the billing of being a 15th overall pick. Brannstrom is owed a $2MM qualifying offer if the Senators want to retain his rights, otherwise, he will become an unrestricted free agent. The Eksjö, Sweden native posted three goals and 17 assists in 76 games last year, which were all career-highs, however, despite the improved numbers it’s hard to imagine that teams are lining up to give up an asset to take on that cap hit.
  • The Senators are also reportedly trying to trade right-shot defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker (as per Bruce Garrioch).  The Canmore, Alberta native is also a former first-round pick who has failed to live up to expectations. The 23-year-old is no analytics darling as he struggled to an even strength CF% of 47.5% last season but did find career highs in goals with four and assists with 10 as he played in 72 NHL games. Bernard-Docker will carry a cap hit of $805K next season and could be moved for a late-round pick or a lower-end prospect.

East Notes: Senators, Flyers, Capitals

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Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia wrote today that the Ottawa Senators have been linked to Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson. He didn’t go into much detail about the link, but it’s not the first time there has been mention of a link between Gibson and the Senators. Ottawa has been pushing hard to improve their netminding and has held talks on Boston Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark since before the NHL trade deadline.

The Senators are desperate to improve their goaltending which has been a disaster since Craig Anderson left town in 2020. The 30-year-old Gibson hasn’t been a strong netminder for years but has been paid like one and still has three years left on his deal at an AAV of $6.4MM. It seems unlikely Ottawa will pursue Gibson at his current price point; however, they could entertain him if they can’t make a deal with the Bruins for Ullmark or if Anaheim is willing to retain some of Gibson’s cap hit.

In other Eastern Conference notes:

  • Anthony Di Marco of The Fourth Period tweeted that he believes that forward Matvei Michkov’s arrival to the Philadelphia Flyers will give the team a bit of leverage in their contract negotiations with right winger Travis Konecny. The Flyers have a difficult decision looming with Konecny, as the 27-year-old is just a year out from unrestricted free agency and there have been rumblings that he is seeking $10MM annually on his next deal. With Michkov likely on his way to Philadelphia, the Flyers could see him as a Konecny replacement, and possibly pivot to an exploration of the trade market for Konecny.
  • The Washington Capitals recently swapped goaltender Darcy Kuemper for forward Pierre-Luc Dubois but are apparently not close to done re-shaping their roster (per Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts). The Capitals have some in-house free agents to take care of but will be able to bring everyone back if they want to. The team badly needs to address their offense, and while Dubois should help in that regard, he can’t be the only piece they add if they hope to improve upfront. Washington scored just 220 goals last season, good enough for 28 out of 32 teams and can no longer rely on their power play to carry them.

East Notes: Lightning, DeBrusk, Ullmark

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Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times expects the Tampa Bay Lightning to make a trade in the near future to cut costs as they try to find room to sign pending free agent captain Steven Stamkos to a contract extension. The Lightning are up against the cap with just $5.335MM in cap space and have just 18 active roster players signed for next season.

Encina looks at the contracts of Tanner Jeannot and Erik Cernak as possibilities to move on from. Jeannot has struggled since coming over from Nashville for five draft picks and Callan Foote and is slated to make $2.665MM next year, while Cernak is owed $5.2MM. Jeannot seems like the likelier of the two to be moved as he has just a year left on his contract at half the cost and has already been linked to multiple teams.

In other Eastern Conference notes:

  • Nick Kypreos speculates in the Toronto Star that the Toronto Maple Leafs have interest in pending free agent forward Jake DeBrusk. The 27-year-old has haunted the Maple Leafs in the playoffs could slide into the team’s top six if they don’t bring back Max Domi or Tyler Bertuzzi. DeBrusk is coming off a disappointing season with the Boston Bruins, tallying just 19 goals and 21 assists in 80 games. However, the Edmonton, Alberta native is just a year removed from a 27-goal season and has surpassed 25 goals on three separate occasions.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on 32 Thoughts that he believes that a big holdup on the Linus Ullmark trade is a potential contract extension being worked out. Friedman points out that a lot of teams aren’t interested in paying the Bruins high asking price for a goaltender that would only be a rental and would like an extension in place before making the deal. Friedman also notes that in the case of a team like the Ottawa Senators, he would have to waive his no-trade clause and likely work out an extension with the team to make the trade happen. Boston has held firm on their asking price in recent weeks but might have to adjust it as some teams that were in on Ullmark have already addressed their goaltending situation, and there are other potential available options on the market.

Morning Notes: Toffoli, McGroarty, Buyouts

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Elliotte Friedman (32 Thoughts) believes that the Vancouver Canucks could target Tyler Toffoli if they are unable to land pending free agent Jake Guentzel. The Canucks have been linked to Guentzel on several occasions and will likely face stiff competition to acquire the former Stanley Cup Champion. Toffoli is familiar with the Canucks organization as the 32-year-old was traded to the team in February 2020 and dressed in ten regular season games, notching ten points.

Friedman also linked Toffoli to the New York Rangers, saying that he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers in the mix for Toffoli. New York recently moved Barclay Goodrow’s contract off the books and has almost $13MM in cap space heading into the offseason. Although they have some pending restricted free agents who will eat up a lot of that cap room and the pending Igor Shesterkin extension to deal with.

In other morning notes:

  • Friedman noted on the 32 Thoughts podcast that teams have inquired about former Winnipeg Jets first-round pick Rutger McGroarty (14th overall), and the Jets have engaged in trade talks about him. Friedman doesn’t get too far into the details but says that he’s heard that McGroarty is being talked about in trade discussions. The Jets hold the 20-year-old’s rights for two more years, and McGroarty decided in April to return to Michigan for another season in the NCAA. With Winnipeg in win-now mode, it would make sense for the team to look at moving him for a player that they can insert into their roster right away, particularly if they are concerned about losing his rights in two years.
  • Jeff Marek reported on the 32 Thoughts podcast that there will be buyouts in the coming days as the first buyout window will open 48 hours after the completion of the Stanley Cup final and will stay open until 5 p.m. Eastern Time on June 30th. Jeff Skinner of the Buffalo Sabres has been a name that’s been mentioned often when it comes to a buyout, as have Jack Campbell of the Edmonton Oilers and a pair of Philadelphia Flyers in Cam Atkinson and Cal Petersen. With the salary cap rising, teams have become creative when it comes to dumping salary, as evidenced by Barclay Goodrow being placed on waivers and the Washington Capitals and Los Angeles Kings swapping Pierre-Luc Dubois for Darcy Kuemper. Buyouts have long-term salary cap ramifications and teams have become more strategic about using them.

Stars Notes: Dellandrea, Tanev, Carrier

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Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek spoke about the Dallas Stars on the 32 Thoughts podcast today saying that the belief is that the Stars traded Ty Dellandrea to the San Jose Sharks to open up room on their roster for other moves. Dellandrea was dealt to the Sharks for a 2025 fourth-round pick and the speculation is that the Stars feel that Mavrik Bourque is ready to step into a full-time role and that ice-time could come from Dellandrea.

Bourque is a former first-round pick in 2020 (30th overall) and has played just one NHL game to this point in his short career. However, the 22-year-old has good offensive instincts and excellent hockey IQ and has excelled in the AHL posting 26 goals and 51 assists in 71 games last season for the Texas Stars. Given his progression, it seems likely that the Plessisville, Quebec native is ready for an NHL role.

In other Dallas Stars notes:

  • Jeff Marek also noted on the 32 Thoughts podcast that the Stars have taken a run this week at re-signing Chris Tanev before he goes to unrestricted free agency. This was also mentioned earlier in the week by Darren Dreger on TSN 1200. Tanev and the Stars have an interest in extending their working relationship as they believe Tanev is an excellent fit on the team’s backend. At 34 years old, Tanev is looking at his last opportunity to secure a lucrative multi-year deal, and the Stars will likely need to up their offer to keep the Toronto, Ontario native in Dallas.
  • Friedman notes on 32 Thoughts that he’s heard rumblings that the Stars have an interest in Vegas Golden Knights forward William Carrier. The 29-year-old Carrier will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st and has played for Stars head coach Pete DeBoer before as a member of the Golden Knights. Carrier doesn’t score much, posting just six goals and two assists in 39 games this season, and has also struggled to remain in the lineup over the years, never playing more than 71 games in a season.

West Notes: Goodrow, Mantha, Pettersen

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The San Jose Sharks were reportedly on Barclay Goodrow’s no-trade list (as per Elliotte Friedman on The Jeff Marek Show) with the New York Rangers. Goodrow was claimed off waivers yesterday by the Sharks and will be returning to the place where his NHL career started back in 2014-15.

Friedman hadn’t spoken to Goodrow directly but noted that the 31-year-old wasn’t happy with the situation as the Rangers hadn’t told Goodrow he would be placed on waivers until the last second. Goodrow had a 15-team no-trade clause and could have worked with the Rangers to find a suitable trade, but ultimately the Rangers elected to take the easier path with Goodrow and let him go for no return through waivers.

In other Western Conference notes:

  • Catherine Savoie of RDS is reporting that the Vegas Golden Knights have told pending unrestricted free agent Anthony Mantha that they will not be re-signing him before July 1st. The trade deadline acquisition was acquired from the Washington Capitals for a second-round pick in this year’s draft and a 2026 fourth-rounder. The 29-year-old tallied 23 goals and 21 assists in 74 games with Washington and Vegas and is unlikely to match the four-year, $22.8MM contract he signed with the Detroit Red Wings back in 2020. Vegas has just $6.2MM in available cap space going into the summer and still needs to sign a couple of players.
  • The Dallas Stars have signed depth forward Emilio Pettersen to a one-year, two-way contract extension (as per PuckPedia) that will cover the 2024-25 season. The new deal will see the 24-year-old collect $775K at the NHL level, while he will pocket $120K in the AHL. Dallas acquired Pettersen back in March from the Calgary Flames in exchange for forward Riley Damiani. He then joined the Stars AHL affiliate and posted four goals and four assists in 12 games. The former sixth-round pick has yet to make his NHL debut and will likely provide AHL depth for the team this season.

Metro Notes: Shesterkin, Necas, Mercer

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Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic speculated about how much goaltender Igor Shesterkin will be paid on his next contract with the New York Rangers. The 28-year-old is eligible to sign an extension on July 1st and given his play the last few seasons and his importance to the Rangers, it will likely be a record-breaking deal for a goaltender.

Shesterkin is reportedly looking for an AAV of $12MM, while most of the models Luszczyszyn uses to show his value are in the range of $9MM – $12MM annually. Given the volatility of the goaltending position, it’s fair to believe that Shesterkin could live up to a $12MM salary in some seasons of the deal, however, as he enters his 30s, it’s possible his play could fall off as it often does with goaltenders on the back half of their career.

In other Metropolitan Division notes:

  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted that a few teams around the NHL are wondering if an offer sheet is a possibility for Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Necas. Carolina’s ask for the 25-year-old remains quite high, and the team has reportedly talked to almost every team around the league. Necas is a two-time 20-goal scorer who posted 24 goals and 29 assists in 77 games last season. The former first-round pick is a restricted free agent after making $3.5MM last season and will likely sign a lucrative long-term deal whether it’s an offer sheet or otherwise.
  • Dawson Mercer was reportedly never part of the New Jersey Devils trade for goaltender Jacob Markstrom (as per Elliotte Friedman on The Jeff Marek Show). There was speculation that the 22-year-old was offered at one point, but Friedman poured cold water on that rumor saying that he had multiple sources tell him that the former first-round pick was never in the trade. Mercer took a step back last season but is just a year removed from posting 27 goals and 29 assists in 82 games.

Sabres Unlikely To Move Goalie, Won’t Extend Young Players This Summer

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The Buffalo Sabres used a trio of netminders last season as they searched for stability in the crease. Now, it appears that two-thirds of that group will be back next season as the Sabres are planning to roll into the 2024-25 season with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi as their netminders (as per Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News). The news isn’t all that surprising given where the Sabres are at, however, they were recently linked to a pair of netminders in Linus Ullmark and Filip Gustavsson(as per The Fourth Period).

The Sabres have good reason to be optimistic about Luukkonen’s development as the 25-year-old took a massive step forward last season, dressing in a career-high 54 games and posting a 27-22-4 record. The Espoo, Finland registered an above-average .910 save percentage and a 2.57 goals-against average to go along with 9.4 goals saved above expected (per Money Puck). Levi also had good underlying numbers with 10.7 goals saved above expected in just 23 games. He did spend significant time in the AHL but appears poised to spend all of next season in the NHL. Luukkonen is an RFA, while Levi has one more year left on his entry-level contract.

Lysowski also tweeted that Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams has talked with the agents for Bowen Byram, JJ Peterka, and Jack Quinn to discuss getting new contracts done as they are eligible for extensions on July 1st. However, Adams doesn’t believe that those contract extensions will get done this summer, and there isn’t a lot of urgency as all three players will be restricted free agents on July 1st, 2025.

Peterka is the likeliest of the three to get a long-term extension done as the 22-year-old posted 28 goals and 22 assists in 82 games last season. The Sabres might look at a bridge deal for Quinn as he has dealt with injury issues and hasn’t been able to establish himself as a regular NHLer.

Byram could get a longer-term deal depending on how this upcoming season goes. The 23-year-old struggled before his trade to Buffalo but was very good offensively for the Sabres after his trade from Colorado. The Cranbrook, British Columbia native posted three goals and six assists in 18 games with Buffalo while he averaged almost 22 minutes of ice time per game.

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