Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Nashville.
The Predators came into the season hoping to continue their streak of eight straight playoff appearances (including the Qualifying Round in the bubble) but changed direction at the deadline, becoming one of the major sellers. However, the unexpected happened and Nashville went on a run down the stretch, nearly pulling off the improbable comeback. While David Poile did some heavy lifting at the deadline to set his successor up, incoming GM Barry Trotz (who officially takes over July 1st) will still have some work to do this summer.
Decide Hynes’ Future
After the season, Trotz indicated that he’d take some time to evaluate John Hynes and then decide on the future of his head coach. That was more than a month ago and there hasn’t been any sort of confirmation one way or the other. Hynes does have one year left on his contract but teams are often hesitant to have their coach behind the bench in a ‘lame duck’ situation. It’s possible that they work out another short-term extension (not unlike the two-year deal he’s currently on) to avoid that situation.
Technically, Trotz can take his time here deciding but the first dominoes are expected to fall soon on the NHL coaching market. If there are candidates out there that he wants, they need to be prepared to strike before that target goes elsewhere.
At this point, the long wait without a decision might actually work in Hynes’ favor but his staying on would be a tepid vote of confidence at best. His name will undoubtedly be on the hot seat if he remains with the team, especially if there’s no extension in place. But for now, simply deciding on if Hynes will be back behind the bench is all the team needs to decide now.
Pick A Direction
The term rebuild doesn’t come up very often when it comes to Nashville as they’ve been one of the models of consistency over the better part of the past decade. But their playoff appearances in recent years yielded quick exits and had they snuck in this season, there’s a good chance that they would have suffered the same fate.
With all due respect to Nashville’s current roster, if they were to try to load back up this summer, they’re probably still in that middle territory and not necessarily a true contender. However, as we’ve seen, some lower seeds have done some damage in the playoffs this season and with Juuse Saros, they have the level of goaltending that can win some games on their own. Accordingly, there’s a case to be made for a quick retool to try to get back into the playoffs in 2024.
On the other hand, there’s also a case to be made that they should be continuing in the direction that Poile took them leading up to the deadline. Move out some more veterans, build up the prospect pool, and try to get into a better position to be more of a real contender in a couple of years. Is that a better approach than hoping to make the playoffs and seeing what happens from there? Trotz will need to decide which is the better way to go and structure his offseason activity based on that choice.
Re-Sign Glass
Cody Glass had a tough first season with Nashville in 2021-22, suiting up in just eight games for the Predators and spending the rest of the year in the minors. Accordingly, the decision for him to take his qualifying offer made sense and the Preds certainly weren’t going to want to work out a long-term deal with someone they weren’t sure would even make their team.
One year later, the narrative is much different. The 24-year-old played the full season in the NHL, picking up 35 points in 72 games along the way. His playing time jumped up to a new career-high while he held his own at the faceoff dot as well, checking in at just under 50%. On the power play, he proved to be quite effective, scoring six times, good for the second-most on the team behind Roman Josi. A year ago, it was hardly a guarantee that Glass was going to be in Nashville much longer. Now, on a team that doesn’t have a lot of younger options down the middle, he looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle.
Glass has three years of club control remaining, all of which will have him arbitration-eligible. Trotz has two ways he can go here, do another short-term ‘prove-it’ type of contract that gives both sides more time to see if his level of production was repeatable, if there’s more in the tank, or if this might have been as good as it gets. Such an approach would certainly be defensible from Nashville’s perspective.
On the other hand, if they believe that Glass is going to become a core player, then perhaps the time is right to try to strike a longer-term agreement. That would push the AAV likely past the $4MM range, a price tag that might be high now but if he pans out, it would become a team-friendly one before too long. From Glass’ perspective, locking in guaranteed long-term money might be desirable a year after being a regular with AHL Milwaukee. There aren’t many key free agent decisions coming for the Preds but this is an intriguing one.
Look Into Barrie Trade
When Nashville traded Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton at the trade deadline, they had to take back Tyson Barrie’s contract as salary ballast as part of the return. Now, the veteran, who turns 32 this summer, will head into the final year of his agreement next season. With a short-term agreement and a right-shot defense market that isn’t all that deep, the Predators are well-positioned to net a quality return should they decide to make him available this summer.
Barrie is the type of player who could be shopped around even if Nashville decides to flip the switch again and try to add. While he’s certainly a capable point producer, he’s not someone that they should be looking to lock up long-term while if they opt to rebuild, he’s a logical piece to shop as a rental.
This isn’t a situation where they have to move him in the coming weeks. As a known commodity, Barrie would have some value closer to the trade deadline where there’s less left on his contract and the Preds might be more willing to retain salary to help facilitate a trade. But once players like Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba come off the board, teams looking for help now on the right side of the back end will have to turn somewhere. Barrie should be a fallback option for those teams, potentially creating a strong enough market to move him sooner than later. Accordingly, expect Trotz to do his homework on that front to be ready to strike if the opportunity presents itself in late June or early July.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Eyssimont, Talvitie, Pajuniemi
Team USA will be without the services of forward Michael Eyssimont for Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup against Czechia as the IIHF announced that he has received a one-game suspension for a kneeing incident in Tuesday’s game against Sweden. The 26-year-old was a late addition to the team after the Lightning were eliminated in the first round but had suited up all seven games so far. Eyssimont had two assists in those contests along with 11 shots and 29 penalty minutes in just over 12 minutes per game. Team USA has one extra forward on their roster, Montreal prospect Luke Tuch who will likely suit up as the extra forward in Eyssimont’s absence.
Elsewhere in the East:
- Devils prospect Aarne Talvitie has decided to go back overseas as TPS of the Finnish SM-liiga announced that they’ve signed the forward to a two-year contract. The 24-year-old showed some promise at Penn State after being drafted and was quite effective at the World Juniors in 2020. However, that didn’t translate to much success in the pros as he followed up a 12-goal, 24-point rookie campaign with a three-goal, 14-point sophomore season in 2022-23, resulting in him looking to head back home. New Jersey can still retain Talvitie’s RFA rights with a qualifying offer in June and he isn’t UFA-eligible until 2026, they might still do so.
- Pending Rangers RFA Lauri Pajuniemi has decided to try his hand in the SHL as he has joined Malmo on a one-year contract, per a team announcement. The 23-year-old winger had a good sophomore year with AHL Hartford, notching 19 goals (fourth-most on the team) and 38 points (sixth-most) in 68 games while chipping in with six points in nine playoff appearances. However, Pajuniemi didn’t receive a recall at any point during the regular season. New York can retain his rights through 2027 by still tendering him a qualifying offer next month.
Five Key Stories: 5/15/23 – 5/21/23
It was an eventful week on the ice in the NHL including one of the longest games in league history and it was even more eventful away from the rink. We recap that news in our key stories.
Four Bidders For Senators: While there were seven strong expressions of interest in the Senators, in the end, only four of those groups issued a binding bid for the team. Canadiens minority owner Michael Andlauer heads up one of them, another is a bid from the Kimel brothers (Jeffrey and Michael) who also used to be a minority owner of the Penguins. The other two bids are from Steve Apostolopoulos, who was a contender in the bidding for the NFL’s Washington Commanders (he lost to Devils owner Josh Harris) and a coalition group led by producer Neko Sparks. The bids will now be reviewed by Galatioto Sports Partners which is handling the sale of the team with there likely to be some behind-the-scenes negotiating to try to drive the purchase price up more; Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports (Twitter link) that those discussions are currently ongoing.
Holland To Stick Around: Soon after there was speculation that Edmonton might be proactive in terms of trying to keep teams from talking to Steve Staios, a special assistant to GM Ken Holland, Holland confirmed that he wouldn’t be stepping aside as GM of the Oilers next season. The 67-year-old has one more year remaining on his contract but indicated he’s not sure how much longer he’d like to stay in the top role, citing that he has some unfinished business. That business might be trying to get Edmonton to the Stanley Cup after the team fell in the second round to Vegas, one year after being swept in the Western Conference Final by Colorado. (Meanwhile, it appears their long-time rival will be announcing their new GM soon.)
Dubas Out: The Maple Leafs are shaking up their front office as it was announced that the team will not be renewing the contract of GM Kyle Dubas. The 37-year-old was in the top job for the last five seasons with the team enjoying plenty of regular season success but only one playoff series victory to show for it. Team president Brendan Shanahan admitted that there had been discussions about a contract extension for Dubas this past week but on Monday, Dubas acknowledged that he was unsure about staying on. While he confirmed to Shanahan on Thursday that he was ready to continue on with his agent submitting a counter-offer in discussions, Shanahan instead decided to move on. With Auston Matthews and William Nylander eligible for extensions in July, whoever takes over for Dubas will have two key files to work on quickly.
Back To The Drawing Board: It looked like the Coyotes had found their eventual new home in Tempe that was going to open up in a few years. However, the public referendum saw voters vote no to all three propositions, tanking that idea and sending the team back to the drawing board. They’ve since reached out to the City of Mesa to discuss the feasibility on building on the site of a mall that will soon be demolished. In the meantime, the team confirmed it will remain at Mullett Arena for the 2023-24 season but that won’t do much to quell relocation speculation, especially if they aren’t able to generate much momentum on this site in Mesa in the coming months.
Staying In School: The Coyotes will have to wait a little longer to get their top prospect under contract as Logan Cooley revealed that he will return to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore year. The 19-year-old was the third-overall pick last year and had a dominant freshman year, finishing second in NCAA scoring with 22 goals and 38 assists in 39 games. Without much left to prove at that level, the logical expectation was that he’d turn pro now but speaking with reporters including Randy Johnson of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, he indicated that he wanted to take another crack at a title while admitting that Arizona’s uncertain arena situation played into his decision. Having said that, Cooley could still turn pro late in the 2023-24 campaign and get into a handful of games with the Coyotes down the stretch.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Vladar, Rangers, Brodzinski
Back in October, the Flames signed goaltender Daniel Vladar to a two-year contract extension, suggesting their intention for him to be part of the plans in goal for a little while longer. However, Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson wonders if the 25-year-old might be better off being a trade option for Calgary this summer. With AHL MVP Dustin Wolf waiting in the wings while being on a contract that’s nearly $1.4MM cheaper, it’s possible that the Flames could be better served by moving Vladar and getting some much-needed cap space; they currently are pegged to have just $1.25MM in cap room this summer, per CapFriendly, with several roster spots needing to be filled. Vladar posted a 2.87 GAA with a .894 SV% in 27 appearances this season and if he was to be made available, Calgary could have a few teams inquiring about his services.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Mollie Walker of the New York Post examines some low-cost goaltending options for the Rangers this summer, including a possible reunion with Jaroslav Halak. The 38-year-old posted a 2.72 GAA with a .903 SV% in 25 games this season and Walker suggests that there’s mutual interest in a return. However, with cap space being at a premium next season, Halak would almost certainly have to take a pay cut from the $1.5MM in guaranteed money he had in 2022-23.
- Flyers prospect Bryce Brodzinski will return for his fifth and final NCAA season with Minnesota, the Golden Gophers announced. The 22-year-old forward was a seventh-round pick by Philadelphia back in 2019 (196th overall) and had 19 goals and 12 assists in 40 games this season. Had he not opted to stay in school, the Flyers would have lost his rights if he was unsigned by August 15th. Instead, they’ll hold his rights one season longer.
Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.
2022-23 certainly didn’t go as planned for the Penguins. Even with a veteran-laden roster that was added to at the trade deadline, they ultimately came up short of the postseason for the first time since 2005-06. As a result, some have wondered if the time is right for them to try to rebuild. However, there have been no indications that this is the direction they intend to pursue so accordingly, their checklist will revolve around their expected goal of trying to get back to the postseason.
Round Out Front Office
The Penguins wasted little time shaking up their front office once the regular season came to an end as they dismissed both GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke. In the interim, it appears as if managerial decisions for Pittsburgh are being done on a by-committee basis including head coach Mike Sullivan. They can get away with that for now with the heavy lifting of the summer still a few weeks away but that will have to change soon.
Pittsburgh is believed to be well into the process of filling at least one of those vacancies as they’re believed to be into the second round of interviews for the GM role, a process that started with roughly a dozen candidates. It’s unknown if some of those being considered for that position could also be options for the President spot as well or if the Penguins will look towards someone more on the business side. One way or the other, they’ll need to have their new management team in place shortly.
Re-Sign Or Replace Jarry
There aren’t a lot of starting goaltenders that will be hitting the open market this summer but the Penguins have one of them in Tristan Jarry. When he is on his game and healthy, the 28-year-old is a strong number one. However, his on-ice performance has been hit or miss at times the last few seasons while staying in the lineup has proven to be a bit of a challenge as well. Accordingly, his future with the organization appears to be in question.
Jarry is coming off of what has been a team-friendly deal relative to his role with a $3.5MM cap charge. His hope in signing what amounted to a second bridge contract back in 2020 is that by now, he’d be established as a true starter, allowing him to push for close to double that AAV on the open market. It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened but with there being few options in free agency, he’s still likely to add a couple million and a couple more years when he eventually puts pen to paper on a new deal.
Should the Penguins be the team to give him that agreement? Casey DeSmith has one more year left on his contract and showed some good flashes while playing in 38 games, a new benchmark for him. Internally, there isn’t anyone in their prospect pool that’s close to being NHL-ready so if they opt to make a change, they’re going to need to look at external options.
Who would those options be? On the trade market, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have been in trade speculation and whoever takes over as GM will likely inquire about those two. Among unrestricted free agents, Semyon Varlamov has been a starter before and could be a short-term stopgap. Joonas Korpisalo had a nice bounce-back year but there would be some risk associated with signing him with a track record that has had its fair share of ups and downs. In terms of free agent netminders, Martin Jones is the only one that played more than Jarry did this season, a sign that there are mostly platoon options available on the open market.
Are any of those options more desirable than sticking with the goalie they know, even with his long history of injuries? With Jarry being eligible to test free agency in six weeks, that’s a question that they’ll need to figure out an answer to fairly quickly.
Create Cap Flexibility
On the surface, the Penguins would appear to have plenty of salary cap room for next season. With roughly $63.3MM on the books for next season per CapFriendly, that leaves them about $20MM to work with. But it’s the spots they have to fill that will ultimately create a cap crunch. As noted earlier, they need a starting goalie. They need to re-sign or replace Jason Zucker, a veteran who had a strong bounce-back year, potting the second-most goals of his career with 27. Brian Dumoulin, who has been a top-four defender for several years, also is set to hit the open market. Filling those three spots will cost the bulk of that cap room, to say nothing of the three bottom-six forwards that will also reach unrestricted free agency as well.
Sure, there’s enough money for them to fill those spots and ice a full-sized roster on opening night. But what does that accomplish? This is a team that wasn’t able to make the playoffs so having a roster that largely mirrors what they had down the stretch shouldn’t be the goal. If they want to make the postseason in 2023-24, they need to find a way to improve their roster. Within their current cap structure, that could be challenging.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see whoever takes over as GM looks to see if he can find a taker for the final two years at $5MM per season on Mikael Granlund’s contract. Alternatively, Bryan Rust, signed at a $5.125MM AAV through 2027-28 could be someone they test the market on. Defensively, Jeff Petry (two years, $6.25MM) and Marcus Pettersson (two years, $4.025MM) could be in that category as well. All of them are certainly still capable NHL players but if they’re going to try to shake up the core and bring some different impact players in, that will have to involve moving some core pieces out as well.
Guentzel Extension Talks
One player that could potentially be added to the list above is Jake Guentzel. He is signed at a team-friendly $6MM AAV through the end of next season which makes him eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st. Considering that the 28-year-old has averaged better than a point per game over the past five seasons (333 points in 331 games) and surpassed the 35-goal mark in three of those, it’s fair to suggest that their preference this summer will be to try to sign him to a new deal. If those discussions don’t go well, then it’s possible (though not probable) that he could become part of that core shakeup.
What might an extension cost? His camp will likely look to the eight-year, $68MM deal ($8.5MM AAV) that Filip Forsberg signed in Nashville to avoid free agency as the starting point of negotiations. With Forsberg only having one season with more production than Guentzel in recent years, it’s safe to say they’ll be aiming higher; it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp push for a cap hit starting with a nine on a max-term agreement. Pittsburgh might try to argue that his cap charge shouldn’t surpass Sidney Crosby’s $8.7MM but with the captain being signed only one year longer than Guentzel’s current contract, that argument isn’t likely to hold water.
Guentzel has been a key part of Pittsburgh’s top line for several seasons now but he’s about to get a lot more expensive. If they can get that deal done now, they can avoid any possible trade speculation during the season while also gaining some clarity on what their longer-term cap picture could look like. Accordingly, whoever the next GM will be, Guentzel’s file should be quite high on their to-do list.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Examining Some Remaining CHL Free Agent Options
College free agency has come and gone and the focus has since shifted to CHL free agency. Across the three Canadian leagues, there are quite a few players looking to turn a strong season into a professional contract that are no longer eligible to be drafted. Some have already signed but here is a look at some that are still looking to land deals that could garner some interest in the weeks ahead.
G Brett Brochu, London (OHL): He’s the only player on this list with AHL experience as the 20-year-old got into a game on a tryout with Pittsburgh’s AHL team in 2020-21. Brochu has been a three-year starter with the Knights, typically one of the strongest major junior programs while he made Canada’s World Junior roster for the summer tournament last year. Teams looking to add pro-ready depth could look his way.
D Aidan De La Gorgendiere, Saskatoon (WHL): Across his first three major junior seasons, the 21-year-old wasn’t much of an offensive producer, collecting 45 points total. He matched that total in 2021-22 and then this season, found another gear entirely, notching 65 points in as many games, good for a tie for seventh league-wide amongst defensemen which should get him on the radar.
D Logan Dowhaniuk, Moose Jaw (WHL): Mobility matters in the pros and while skating is an issue for some of the players on this list, it isn’t for Dowhaniuk. The 20-year-old doesn’t have high-end offensive stats but is a steady two-way defender and fared relatively well in the playoffs for the second straight year which should boost his profile.
F James Hardie, Mississauga (OHL): The 21-year-old has played in three seasons, averaging more than a point per game in each of them and had an impressive showing in the playoffs this year. He has a strong offensive skill set but he’s a bit on the smaller side at 5’11. It’s possible that he gets an entry-level deal but teams will also be offering up AHL contracts to Hardie as well. He signed a tryout agreement in the ECHL with Buffalo’s affiliate but remains a free agent.
F Ivan Ivan (Cape Breton, QMJHL): Ivan didn’t have a great start to his year with an underwhelming summer World Junior performance but the 20-year-old took a big step forward offensively this season, finishing tenth in the league in scoring. A capable defensive forward, the offensive improvement should help him generate some NHL interest.
F Connor McClennon, Winnipeg (WHL): A former Flyers prospect, the 20-year-old had his second straight 40-plus-goal season in the Western league, an impressive accomplishment. It was also his fourth straight season of over a point per game while he plays with a bit of an edge. The catch? He stands 5’8 which will scare some teams off but it’s hard to argue with that type of consistent production.
F Owen Pederson, Winnipeg (WHL): Last year, Pederson had a standout playoff performance and he was able to carry that over into a strong overage season that saw him reach the 30-goal mark for the first time. At 6’3, he has pro size and has shown an ability to score around the net. That type of profile tends to draw interest from teams and that should be the case here as well.
D Ben Zloty, Winnipeg (WHL): Last season, Zloty was tied for fifth in scoring among WHL blueliners, averaging just over a point per game. This year, the 21-year-old found new gears, eventually leading all rearguards in scoring with 81 points in 64 contests. He’s a bit on the smaller side for a defender at 6’0 but that type of production from the back end should have some teams inquiring about an AHL deal at a minimum.
There will also be more players entering free agency on June 1st as CHL-drafted players from 2021 that don’t sign with the team that picked them and are too old to re-enter the draft will also hit the open market at that time. We’ll find out in less than two weeks who those players will be.
East Notes: Ostlund, Rangers, Blue Jackets
It appears that Sabres prospect Noah Ostlund has determined where he’ll play next season. Johan Svensson of SportExpressen reports that the center will play with Vaxjo of the SHL in 2023-24 with a formal announcement expected in the next few days. Ostlund was a first-round pick by Buffalo last year (16th overall) and spent the season with Djurgardens of the second-tier Allsvenskan, collecting 26 points in 37 games. Ostlund is currently with AHL Rochester but isn’t expected to play during the rest of their Calder Cup run. He has already signed his entry-level contract but if he plays next season in Sweden, his contract will slide a year and still have three years remaining after 2023-24.
Elsewhere in the East:
- Arthur Staple of The Athletic provides (subscription link) an update on the Rangers’ coaching search, noting that veterans Peter Laviolette and Mike Babcock both had their interviews this week. Staple suggests that Kraken assistant Jay Leach could also be on their radar but was unable to confirm if New York has reached out to get permission to interview him. There are presently six teams looking for a new bench boss around the NHL so once one of the preferred candidates comes off the board, other teams might be looking to finalize their hires soon after.
- Finding a head coach isn’t the only thing that the Blue Jackets have to do with their staff as the goaltending coach position is also open. Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch puts forth a trio of names that could be in the mix for that role, including Michael Lawrence who is a goalie coach in Switzerland and worked with Elvis Merzlikins for two seasons. Merzlikins struggled considerably this season but with four years left on his contract, getting him back on track is of paramount importance if Columbus is going to find a way to get back into the playoff picture.
PHR Mailbag: Devils, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Wild, Wright, Robertson, Thunderbirds, Top Pick
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Jason Robertson’s quiet start to the playoffs, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back later on as due to the volume of questions submitted, we’ll be running two more mailbags between now and next weekend.
SpeakOfTheDevils: What do the Devils do at the goalie position this summer? Obviously, Bernier retires, Blackwood isn’t qualified, do we run a Vanecek/Schmid platoon or trade Vanecek for someone like Saros or Hellebuyck?
First, I’ll agree with you on the first two. Jonathan Bernier has been out for over a year and a half so he clearly isn’t returning. I still think Mackenzie Blackwood can be a good NHL goalie but after being relegated to third-string status for the playoffs plus his $3.36MM qualifying offer, he’s not coming back either.
I’ll start my answer to your question with another question. Do the Devils think they can re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier? Neither are goaltenders obviously but they’re going to have an impact on what does – or doesn’t – happen between the pipes.
There’s only so much cap space to go around and a lot of what they have is going to have to go to those two, probably somewhere around $18MM, give or take. If those two sign and they have big contracts on the books already in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton, can they afford another big one? Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck aren’t on contracts at that level yet but will be soon enough and I’m not sure it’s justifiable to make a move for one of them without being prepared to pay up for their next, much more expensive, deal.
Right now, I think New Jersey’s intention is to re-sign both wingers and that will more or less force their hand into going cheap between the pipes with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid so that’s what I’ll go with as an answer. But if talks with one of them fall through and they wind up getting moved, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were to take a run at a goaltending upgrade.
PyramidHeadcrab: What’s the long-term plan for the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets?
Arizona has become a dumping ground for bad contracts, and they trade away every quality asset they develop. They’re playing in an OHL-sized arena and icing a team that has no chance of competing. Are they built to serve other teams? I don’t see the goal here.
Columbus has flirted with the playoffs and hosted some genuine star talent at points, but they seem to be cursed with injuries and mediocre depth/prospects. Does Columbus ever pull it all together and reliably compete, or do they simply continue to exist in perpetual suffering?
This is certainly a topical question with the arena proposal for the Coyotes getting voted down earlier this week (and it was particularly timely as it came before the news broke). Franchise-wise, I do think the team is going to take a serious look at trying to find a Plan B that works in the desert over the next eight-to-ten months. If nothing presents itself, then relocation could very well be on the table with a new owner in place.
But as you noted in your follow-up comment, you were looking at more of the on-ice element for both teams. For Arizona, they’ve made it clear that they haven’t had much desire to win for the last several years and based on GM Bill Armstrong’s comments earlier about where they are in that process, probably a few more. I don’t think they’re concerned about not having an overly competitive team; their goal is competing a few years from now with a bunch of promising prospects growing together into a sustainable contender. Taking on injured players allows them to keep net payroll costs down (they’re paying considerably less than the AAV after insurance) which is particularly important playing in the arena they’re currently in. There’s an end game for this, it just won’t be seen for a little while longer.
As for Columbus, I’m not particularly bullish on their future. I get that landing Johnny Gaudreau resulted in them trying to expedite things but clearly, it didn’t work. They’re going to get a high-end talent with the third pick next month at least and they have some quality youngsters headlined by David Jiricek and Kent Johnson. With them, Gaudreau, and Patrik Laine, there’s a good foundation. But unless their new head coach can elevate their play to another level, this feels like a franchise whose peak might be a second-round exit or two. That’s not terrible but while I wouldn’t necessarily say they’ll be perpetually suffering, I don’t see them getting over the proverbial hump anytime soon.
Zakis: What youngsters make the Wild opening day roster next year and what kind of impact do you think they can make? To piggyback on a comment, what is the role of a POHO? More focused on the on-ice product or business side? Thanks as always.
Let’s start with Brock Faber. He didn’t look out of place in the playoffs and with Mathew Dumba and John Klingberg heading for unrestricted free agency in July, there should be a spot in the lineup for him. Next season, I don’t think he’s going to make a huge impact right away but I could see his ATOI getting into the 16-18-minute range which would be a solid rookie year.
Up front, I think Marco Rossi breaks camp at least with Minnesota. Now with basically two full AHL seasons under his belt, they need to get a feel for where he is development-wise. If he winds up back on the fourth line eventually, then they can send him back down but I suspect he’ll get a look. His impact might wind up being negligible, however.
I see the Wild being a team that could be active in free agency in September. There are always free agent bargains to be had at that point and they might bring in a veteran or two that could push someone like Samuel Walker or Adam Beckman back to Iowa to start. If you want a dark horse forward to break camp, I’ll throw out Caedan Bankier. If they go young on the fourth line, his defensive game is good enough to stick while providing some offensive upside. A good camp could have him in the mix.
As for the role of a President of Hockey Operations (or POHO), it varies from team to team. Some are really involved in the day-to-day operations to the point where they could have the final say on strategy and personnel moves with the GM then going out and executing them. Some teams don’t have a President of Hockey Operations, they just have a President (Minnesota is one of those with Matt Majka). Some have a POHO on paper but in reality, they’re not overly involved with on-ice elements. In those instances, they’re heavily involved in business strategy, marketing, and revenue growth.
aka.nda: Been wondering about Shane Wright’s next few seasons. Would a trade scenario be unconscionable? If not, what is his value like? Who would be a good fit and why?
It would be a bit of a shock to see a fourth-overall pick traded one year later but I suppose it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. For it to happen, Seattle would need to be convinced that he’s not going to pan out as they hoped a year ago which frankly, would be a particularly aggressive conclusion to draw for someone who has less than 30 games of professional experience under his belt. GM Ron Francis is patient and this would be the opposite of that. The other element required here would be another team would need to feel the other way, that he is still a high-quality center prospect. That one is easier to see happening as I’m sure plenty of teams would want to get their hands on him.
From a trade value perspective, I’d peg it somewhere around what the tenth pick would fetch in a trade. Last year wasn’t the deepest of drafts and his post-draft year wasn’t great (though it wasn’t bad either, by any stretch) so I think his value would be down slightly relative to a year ago. From the fit side of things, anyone who needs a young center would be a fit on paper. That’s a lot of teams.
I’m trying to think of a scenario that could make Francis pull the trigger and this is the best I could come up with. A team makes a promising young center that’s 21 or 22 and either already in the NHL (or should be next season) available. That player doesn’t fit the trading team’s timeline as they’re in a rebuild but Wright does. I’m not sure there’s a team in a rebuild right now with someone that age with that much control and upside that could be made available in this scenario. But that’s my guess on what it would take for them to move Wright that quickly.
jacl: What the hell is going on with Jason Robertson? This is two years in a row he has disappeared in the playoffs.
As much as Robertson has struggled to score, he still sat second on the Stars in points heading into the start of their series against Vegas at just under a point per game. That’s not terrible. I’d suggest that he has been better this year than 2022, his first taste of postseason action so that’s a step in the right direction, if nothing else.
It’s a simple answer but sometimes, it takes players a while to adapt to the different way that playoff hockey is played. In particular, smaller offensive players can deal with some challenges with the tighter checking and greater physicality; look no further than Dallas’ first-round opponent in Minnesota who didn’t get a lot from Kirill Kaprizov that series. Robertson enters this series with 19 playoff games under his belt which isn’t a whole lot. There’s still a lot of time for him to figure out the nuances of playoff hockey, not just this year but beyond. But it looks like it’s going to take him a bit longer to play at his regular season level in the postseason.
Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Senators, Caufield
While Maple Leafs winger William Nylander was expected to play for Sweden at the World Championship, Dagens Nyheter’s Malin Fransson reports that this is no longer the case. Instead, the Swedish Federation has opted to lock in its roster as is. The team has registered 21 skaters for the tournament, one below the maximum of 22. That slot will now be held free for a possible injury replacement over trying to bring Nylander in during round-robin play, a move that would have given them a big boost. The tourney will come to an end next Sunday.
More from the Atlantic:
- A pair of former NHLers have gotten in on the bidding for the Senators. In an interview with Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, former Canadian sprinter Donovan Bailey indicated that he along with Anson Carter and Grant Fuhr are all part of the bid led by Neko Sparks. A total of four groups put forth a bid for the franchise with Garrioch suggesting that bids led by Canadiens minority owner Michael Andlauer and the Kimels, who once were partners in the Penguins, might be the ones that the NHL has at the top of their preferred list.
- Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette wonders if Canadiens winger Cole Caufield might prefer to sign a bridge deal this summer and then try to cash in on a richer long-term agreement a couple of years down the road. The 22-year-old tied for the Montreal lead in goals this season with 26 despite missing 36 games due to shoulder surgery. Caufield will be a restricted free agent this summer but only has 123 career regular season appearances under his belt so if he thinks he can get a 40-goal campaign under his belt in the next couple of years, taking a bridge agreement might be better off financially for him in the long run.
Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres
The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Buffalo.
It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo. Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end. Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks. The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.
Look At Adding A Veteran Starter
Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long. While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined. If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.
Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options. Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender. That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.
If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental. He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.
In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry. However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).
Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move. If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well. But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.
Extension Talks
The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st. Both players are in vastly different situations.
Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons. There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well. However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.
Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner. He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement. His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.
Then there’s Owen Power. Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season. However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal. Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now? That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career. Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.
Determine Olofsson’s Future
Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons. However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team. He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.
Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.
With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision. It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t. With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.
Is what he can do worth keeping around? If so, then they can start to work on an extension. If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters. With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.
Add An Impact Defenseman
Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end. In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.
Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well. Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.
Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba. Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years. Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.
There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06). Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.