Five Key Stories: 5/22/23 – 5/28/23
As May comes closer to an end, off-ice activity should start to pick up around the league in the coming days. While it was a relatively quiet week, there was still some news of note which is highlighted in our key stories.
Two For Benn: Facing elimination after losing the first three games of the Western Conference Final, the Stars found themselves without captain Jamie Benn as he received a two-game suspension from the Department of Player Safety. The ban came as a result of a cross-check on Vegas winger Mark Stone early in the third game of the series, earning him a five-minute major and a game misconduct at the time. Dallas was able to rebound without their captain, winning two elimination games to stay alive in the series. Benn will be eligible to return for another must-win game contest on Monday.
Conroy Promoted: Throughout Calgary’s search for a new general manager, long-time assistant Craig Conroy was viewed as the speculative favorite. In the end, the former Flame was promoted to the job, becoming the eighth GM in franchise history. Following a season that saw the team just come up short of a playoff spot, Conroy will be tasked with changing up the core while needing to free up cap space in the process. Additionally, he needs to find a new head coach following the dismissal of Darryl Sutter while Don Maloney was serving as interim GM. It’s quite possible that the hire will be an internal promotion as well with assistants Kirk Muller and Ryan Huska plus two-time AHL Coach of the Year winner Mitch Love all in the organization already.
Staying With The Sabres: Kyle Okposo took some time to determine his plan for his playing future and it involved staying with Buffalo as the captain signed a one-year extension, avoiding unrestricted free agency this summer. He’ll be taking a sizable pay cut to do so, going from a $6MM AAV on his last deal to a $2.5MM salary plus a potential $500K bonus if the Sabres win the Stanley Cup. The 35-year-old saw his production dip this season, going from 45 points to 28 while seeing his playing time shaved by more than two minutes a night as some of Buffalo’s younger players have grabbed a hold of a regular spot in the lineup. However, he can still fill a spot in their bottom six while players and management have lauded his off-ice contributions, ones that will continue now for another year.
Flyers Open To Changing Goalies: In an interview over the weekend, Flyers GM Daniel Briere indicated that while he believes Carter Hart is their goalie of the future, he isn’t in a position to turn down anything and would listen to offers for the 24-year-old. Hart made an immediate impact when he debuted in 2018-19 but hasn’t been able to duplicate his level of performance in his first two seasons in the following three campaigns. Hart is signed for one more season at a $3.979MM cap hit and is eligible to sign a contract extension as early as July 1st. He’s under team control through restricted free agency through the 2024-25 season.
Kravtsov Back To Russia: It wasn’t that long ago that winger Vitali Kravtsov was viewed as a piece of the future for the Rangers. After a tough showing with New York this season, he was moved to Vancouver as part of the series of moves needed to afford Patrick Kane. Things didn’t go much better there and rather than battle for a roster spot with the Canucks next season, the 23-year-old has decided to go home once again, inking a two-year deal with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL. Kravtsov had just four goals and four assists in 48 games this season between the two teams, not the type of numbers expected from the 2018 ninth-overall selection. Kravtsov is under team control through 2027 so Vancouver is still likely to issue him a qualifying offer this summer to retain his NHL rights.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Red Wings, Oilers, Predators, Addison, Hellebuyck, Senators, Draft, Injuries
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible targets for Detroit this summer, what’s next for Ottawa, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.
gowings2008: Could Ryan O’Reilly be a realistic top 6C option for Detroit on a short 2-3-year deal?
This is a scenario I briefly talked about in a mailbag last month. It makes a lot of sense on a few fronts. First, the UFA market isn’t great, especially if the Boston veterans either re-sign with the Bruins or retire; it’d be stunning to see either of them go elsewhere. With them out of the picture, O’Reilly is one of the top middlemen available on the open market.
Second, he fits the type of veteran that GM Steve Yzerman seems to like – players that I call bridge veterans. These are short-term additions that provide a short-term improvement to the roster while allowing prospects more time in the minors to develop. Throughout his tenure in Detroit, these have largely been the types of players that Yzerman has targeted.
The question is whether O’Reilly will accept a short-term agreement or if he uses the market to his advantage and can secure a longer-term pact. At 32, it’s not unthinkable that he could get a five-year contract and if the bidding drives the deal to that length, Detroit would be wise to stay away. O’Reilly fits for Detroit as long as it’s a short-term contract. Otherwise, he shouldn’t get much consideration.
tigers22 2: Which players will be available for trade during the offseason that the Red Wings could look to acquire to put some more pucks in the net?
It’s a pretty long list, probably longer than I can get into here. With a lot teams likely looking to get out of a contract or two, there could be some pretty good forwards made available at a discount. That’s the market I’d be looking in which again ties in nicely with their bridge veteran approach. Here are a few names to keep an eye on out of that group.
Brock Boeser (Vancouver) – While Boeser has made it known that he wants to stay, his contract is one that the Canucks would likely want to get out of. He has two years left at $6.65MM and has four seasons of 20-plus goals under his belt while just coming up short of that this season. Vancouver simply has to move someone out to free up money and if Detroit is willing to absorb that contract (and they certainly have the cap space to do so), then he’d be a nice buy-low add that would immediately bolster their winger depth.
Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary) – It’s unclear if new GM Craig Conroy will want to move Mangiapane but he has just one 20-goal year, a 35-tally effort in 2021-22. Aside from that, he’s typically in the high teens. That’s still a useful player but at $5.8MM, he’s an expensive one. The Flames also need to clear out money and if they feel he’s more of an 18-goal player moving forward and not a 35-goal one, it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to move him.
Taylor Hall (Boston) – Hall’s in his early 30s now and isn’t the top liner he was in his prime. However, he’s still a capable secondary scorer and had a strong showing in Boston’s first-round loss to Florida. The Bruins need to create some cap flexibility and while Hall might not be their first choice to move, the two years at $6MM per season remaining on it means it’s something they might have to consider.
Anthony Mantha (Washington) – Why not? Mantha showed some strong flashes with Detroit but hasn’t been able to bring that to the Capitals with any sort of consistency. If they want to be active in free agency (perhaps trying to bring back Dmitry Orlov), they’re going to need some cap room. Mantha’s on an expiring deal at $5.7MM and if could get back to his 20-goal form with the Red Wings, he’d be a worthwhile acquisition.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Edmonton – what do they do this offseason?
I don’t expect them to do a ton this summer. They made a big swing at the deadline to bring in Mattias Ekholm and that was their big core move. Now, this summer should be about some tweaks around the edges while trimming payroll to get cap-compliant.
On the back end, while they’d like to keep both Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci, I’m not sure they can afford to do so. The two combine for a $6MM cap hit which is fine when you have cap flexibility but not so much when you need space. With Evan Bouchard proving he’s ready for a top-four role, there’s room for one of those players but not so much both of them. Philip Broberg is also in the mix for a full-time spot which could push one of Ceci or Kulak out.
Speaking of Bouchard, while they’d probably want to sign him to a long-term deal, that’s just not practical based on their current roster. They’ll bridge him for two years and hope the anticipated increase to the salary cap will allow them to afford to sign him to a long-term contract at that time.
Up front, I could see them moving on from Kailer Yamamoto. He’s someone I’m going to cover in more detail in a separate piece in the next week or so I won’t go into much detail here but that’s a salary slot they can’t really afford, especially if they want to re-sign pending UFA Nick Bjugstad who fit in nicely after being acquired. Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod will get short-term contracts to keep the AAV down.
If they can move out a contract or two by July 1st, it could give them a chance to go after a bottom-six forward or two that they like. If not, they might be forced to do their shopping closer to training camp when players are looking for a soft landing spot with the hopes of bolstering their value for another crack at the market a year from now. Edmonton would be very appealing for those players which could yield some good value additions if they’re patient.
Bradley B: Since the Predators became sellers at the deadline, and with a GM change coming, do you see them aiming for a rebuild/retool? Are they likely to try and move some more of their players this summer?
Rumors surround MIN defense prospect Calen Addison. Are there any similar prospects (hopefully centers) out there who need a change of scenery and seem like a close value swap?
Where will Connor Hellebuyck be playing next season?
Full disclosure, my track record of making accurate predictions with Nashville hasn’t been great so keep that in mind reading this answer. With the state of their roster, I think they should take a step back for a year or two and continue moving out some veterans. In terms of shooting for longer-term success and not just being a bubble team, that’s their best chance to do it. But is rebuilding really in their DNA? Barry Trotz was a win-now coach; is he really going to start his tenure as GM by diving head-first into a rebuild? With the cap room they have, they can flip the switch and add a few quality veterans. Add that to their core and they could very well be back in the playoffs next year. They don’t typically walk away from that chance with regularity so I’m skeptical they’re going to start now.
I know the speculation is out there with Addison but that might be a move that they regret. His value isn’t the greatest right now so I don’t think there are many promising young middlemen that they’d be able to get in return for him. Maybe Joe Veleno if Detroit thinks he maxes out in his current role? A move like that would yield a replacement for Filip Hronek at least. I could see Carolina moving Jack Drury this summer and a swap of younger players would make sense for them so that could be another possibility. If Wild GM Bill Guerin thinks highly of Liam Foudy, that could be another option but I think they’d be better off keeping Addison between those two. Frankly, I think they’d be better off keeping him period. The best is yet to come from him and Minnesota shouldn’t be rushing to move him as a result.
In yesterday’s mailbag, I talked about the possibility of Winnipeg giving this core one more partial year and seeing if they get a different outcome. If that happens, then it’s possible that Hellebuyck stays. But I’ll go a bit off the board and say Carolina. Pyotr Kochetkov is their goalie of the future but that future isn’t 2023-24. They’ve been doing fine with mid-tier goalies but those players don’t win too many games on their own. Hellebuyck can and in the playoffs, we’ve seen the difference that a strong goalie can make. This is a win-now core and Hellebuyck is definitely a win-now goalie.
jawman74: Where do you see the Senators going from here? Obviously, it seems as if their goal was to try and compete for the playoffs this season but they fell short. Do you think they run it back with this current team, try and retool, or something else? How do guys like DeBrincat or Chychrun fit into the mix? Who’s in net on opening night, is it Forsberg or Sogaard, or someone else? When is their contending window?
A lot of what happens next will be determined by new ownership. If they maintain GM Pierre Dorion (and by extension, D.J. Smith), they’re going to try to keep building with this group or at least most of it. If a change is made, then all bets are off. That scenario is too hard to predict so let’s assume it’s the status quo moving forward.
I think Dorion’s extension is to run it back with this group. Let’s not forget that with the exception of Claude Giroux, their core forwards are all 25 or younger. That’s a group that has room to improve organically which should provide reason for optimism to stay the course. Now, Alex DeBrincat can change that course to an extent. If he doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal, Dorion might turn around and trade him and they’re probably not getting an equivalent scorer in return while there isn’t one like him available in free agency. Losing him would hurt, no doubt, but even in that scenario, I still see them pushing for a playoff spot and trying to build this roster up.
Defensively, the addition of Jakob Chychrun gives them two top-pairing players and rounds out their top four nicely so I see him sticking around for sure. They have decisions to make on some of their younger guys (Erik Brannstrom is arbitration-eligible while Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are waiver-eligible) and I could see one of them being moved with a veteran like Travis Hamonic sticking around. Most of the heavy lifting there is done, for now at least.
Ottawa needs a viable starting goalie. Anton Forsberg isn’t a 1A and Mads Sogaard needs time in the minors. That said, I don’t think they’re going to pursue one and instead, will look for another Cam Talbot-like acquisition. Semyon Varlamov makes sense on paper; he’d get a chance to play a bit more while being on a team that should be on the rise. Their opening night starter should be someone not currently in the organization, I’ll say that much.
As for their contending window, it might be now. Chychrun has two years left on his below-market deal and with a higher cap at that time, he could cost what Thomas Chabot costs now ($8MM). Can they afford another deal in that range on their books? Giroux is up two years from now as well so that’s the soft closing point. The good news is that their young core is good enough to keep them in it for a while but having moved out some good draft picks and prospects lately, they may not have the pieces to trade for another player like Chychrun down the road. But if they can land an impact free agent in 2025 or 2026, that window could swing back open.
Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets
The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Winnipeg.
It was a rocky season for the Jets. At one point, they were atop the Central Division and rolling under new head coach Rick Bowness. By the end, they barely squeaked into the playoffs and went out quickly in the first round, earning a public rebuke from Bowness along the way. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has four prominent players on his roster that are or could be UFA-eligible in 2024. Not surprisingly, the bulk of their checklist revolves around those four players.
Goaltending Decisions
Let’s get one of those players out of the way first. Connor Hellebuyck has been Winnipeg’s MVP for several seasons now, often providing high-end goaltending to get or keep them in the playoff picture. He has done so on a team-friendly deal as well; while his $6.17MM is above the NHL average, he’s a goalie that has been well above league average. Next summer, he’ll become one of the top-paid netminders in the league. Will Winnipeg be the team to give it to him? At a minimum, Cheveldayoff needs to make a serious extension offer and then see what happens from there. If the 30-year-old balks at signing, then they’ll have to investigate moving him as well.
On top of that, the Jets also need a backup goalie for next season. As they’ve done in recent years, Winnipeg went for a lower-cost option this year in David Rittich who had a nice bounce-back campaign, posting a 2.68 GAA with a .901 SV% in 21 games. He’s earned a small raise so Winnipeg will either have to allocate more to their backup position or look for a new second-stringer. Also worth considering is that if they trade Hellebuyck, they’ll likely have to change gears and look for a more prominent backup. That could lend a pressure point to the Hellebuyck talks even though he isn’t eligible to sign until July 1st.
There’s also a longer-term element to consider. There is no high-end starter of the future in their system (although Domenic DiVincentiis had a strong year in the OHL) which is another pressure point on the Hellebuyck situation. If they don’t keep him, they don’t have anyone in the system close to being ready to step in. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them target a signed prospect goalie this summer and if they do move their star netminder, it’s quite likely that they’ll be showing interest in a strong prospect goaltender as part of the return package.
Decide On Dubois
Last summer, RFA center Pierre-Luc Dubois was the predominant storyline in Winnipeg among their players. He had indicated that his intention was not to sign a long-term deal with the team and there has been no shortage of speculation that Montreal would be where he would like to end up. Interestingly, he didn’t file for arbitration last summer, a move that likely cost him some money as he wound up accepting his $6MM qualifying offer. That means they get to go through this all over again this summer.
Dubois is once again arbitration-eligible but filing would lock in a contract date near the end of July once the hearing has concluded and the award has been issued, should it get that far. If his intention is to try to force a trade, he might opt to repeat what he did last summer, eschewing arbitration and waiting it out in the hopes that a move is made and he can potentially negotiate a long-term deal with the acquiring team.
But the Jets aren’t under any obligation to move him to his desired destination(s). They can opt to treat him like a typical rental player and even if teams believe Dubois will test the open market in 2024, Winnipeg should still get a good return if they opt to move him this summer, especially with a thin crop of available players this year. But that’s still an if. It’s possible that Cheveldayoff still hopes he can change Dubois’ mind and convince him that it’s worth staying in Winnipeg. It’s also quite possible that he opts to keep Dubois to start the season in the hopes of helping the Jets stay in the playoff picture and then pivots to a trade closer to the deadline if they’re not in the race. Again, in that scenario, he’d likely be the top middleman available and could bring back a strong return.
At the moment, it seems like the probable outcome with Dubois is that he gets moved. But when that happens is the decision that needs to be made. It could be dictated by what happens with their other 2024 UFAs which could ultimately make this a big summer of change in Winnipeg or more of the same.
Clear The Defensive Logjam
The Jets boast strong depth on the back end, one that has served well when injuries have arisen but also created some frustration with their younger players with both Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola making it known to management that if they’re not going to play with the Jets, that they wouldn’t mind being moved elsewhere. On top of that, they lost Johnathan Kovacevic to Montreal in training camp on waivers with the 25-year-old going on to play 77 games with the Canadiens this season. They also lost Leon Gawanke who opted to sign in Germany for next season (and well beyond) after his frustration at not getting a chance with the big club.
Nothing is set to change as things stand for next season as there are no pending unrestricted free agents on their back end while Stanley and Dylan Samberg need new deals as restricted free agents. Heinola is presently ninth on the depth chart with Declan Chisholm tenth and a pretty strong candidate to be claimed on waivers if he doesn’t crack the team out of training camp in the fall. Depth can be great to have but there can be too much of it, especially in the preseason when waivers really come into play. It appears that Winnipeg is going to be in that situation.
There are three defenders that are set to enter the final year of their respective deals. Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo will be unrestricted in 2024 while Kyle Capobianco will be a restricted free agent. One (or two) of those three being out of the picture would open up opportunities for their younger blueliners to step up and try to claim a full-time spot at a much cheaper price point compared to Dillon ($3.9MM) and DeMelo ($3MM). Winnipeg might also want to move Nate Schmidt but with two years left at just under $6MM, getting value for him would be difficult.
There should be a decent market for Dillon and/or DeMelo. Both are capable of logging nearly 20 minutes a night and killing penalties and in terms of market value, are on reasonable contracts. If another team is looking for one of those pieces but doesn’t want a long-term commitment that a free agent this summer would want, they’ll certainly be calling up Winnipeg. It might be in Cheveldayoff’s best interest to make a move on that front in the coming weeks.
Decisions On Other 2024 UFAs
We still haven’t covered all the 2024 UFAs of note that decisions will need to be made on. Top center Mark Scheifele is in that situation as well, as is former captain Blake Wheeler.
Scheifele posted a career-high 42 goals this season while reaching the 60-point mark for the eighth straight season. Quietly, he has the 14th-most points league-wide over that eight-year stretch. Fortunately for Winnipeg, he has produced most of that on what has been a very team-friendly deal, one that has carried a $6.125MM AAV for the last seven seasons with one more to go. For a top center, that’s well below market value. That will change next summer when he should have a chance to push for around $9.5MM (or more, depending on the cap increase) in free agency.
It’s likely that Winnipeg will try to re-sign him, even if some feel that they need to shake up their core somewhat. Simply put, letting a top middleman go isn’t a great way to try to win. But is Scheifele willing to extend right now? After the playoffs, he said it was too soon to think about his nearing free agency. The Jets will be pushing for a decision soon enough.
As for Wheeler, he’s at a different stage of his career; there isn’t a big next contract coming his way. He has been a fixture with this franchise for more than a decade and has been quite productive; in the last eight years, he’s 15th league-wide in scoring, one point behind Scheifele. The 36-year-old still had a reasonable 2022-23 campaign, notching 55 points.
However, it feels like his time with the team could be coming to an end. It was a bit surprising to see him stay after losing the captaincy although his $8.25MM AAV might have had something to do with that. But with one year remaining, it’s an easier contract to move while a buyout would free up $5.5MM on the cap for 2023-24 (while adding $2.75MM in dead space the following season). Cheveldayoff needs to decide if a fresh start for both sides is best and after teams do their summer spending, that contract will become quite difficult to move. Accordingly, this is a choice that will need to be made in the next few weeks.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: World Championship, Grzelcyk, Ceci
The medal games have been set at the IIHF World Hockey Championship. After Latvia and Germany were able to pull off significant upsets to get to the semi-finals, one of them was able to do so again as the Germans scored late in the third to tie it at three send their game against Team USA to overtime, paving the way for former Pittsburgh prospect Frederik Tiffels to score the winner late in the extra session. Meanwhile, in the first semi-final, the presumptive second-overall pick next month, Adam Fantilli, picked up the winner in the third period as Canada doubled up the Latvians 4-2. Latvia and the US will face off for Bronze while Germany and Canada will battle for Gold with both games slated for Sunday.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic examines (subscription link) some potential trade options for the Bruins this summer, including defenseman Matt Grzelcyk. The 29-year-old has been a capable secondary producer offensively for the past several seasons, including notching a career-high 26 points in 75 games in 2022-23. However, his $3.6875MM AAV is a bit on the high side relative to his ice time which is that of a player on the third pairing and with the team facing quite a cap crunch this summer, Grzelcyk is a luxury they might not be able to afford. He, along with fellow left-shot defenders Derek Forbort and Mike Reilly, are all a year away from unrestricted free agency and there’s a good chance one of them, if not more, will be on the move in the coming months.
- While the Oilers will need to free up some cap space to re-sign Evan Bouchard and round out their roster this summer, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal argues that one of those money-saving moves shouldn’t involve moving defenseman Cody Ceci. The 29-year-old still has two years left on a contract that carries a $3.25MM price tag and saw his output dip from 28 to 15 points this season while seeing his playing time go down slightly as well. However, the fact that he can still handle second-pairing minutes remains valuable on a team that has some unproven defenders and others that are best served with limited ice time so if they can find a way to cut costs elsewhere, that might be a better way for them to go.
PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Jets, Bruins, Draft, Flyers, Officiating
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include discussion on Buffalo’s goaltending situation, Philadelphia’s new front office, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from this weekend; there will also be one that runs tomorrow where your question might be answered.
sabres3277: As the Sabres approach the NHL Draft do you think they will address the goaltending position via a trade/free agent to ensure that D. Levi has a veteran partner and mentor? I believe the Sabres need to acquire a solid veteran defenseman to bolster the young defense. Thoughts?
When it comes to the goaltending, I’m a little on the fence. I think they’d like to do something but there’s a fine needle to thread here. John Gibson might be available but he has four years left. I don’t think Buffalo wants to do that. Connor Hellebuyck is on an expiring deal next season but I don’t believe the Sabres would want to pay the freight of a long-term contract. Maybe Nashville moves Juuse Saros if they’re going to head into a rebuild but that’s hardly a guarantee. I don’t see another trade option that makes enough of a difference to matter.
In free agency, Tristan Jarry is out there but he’s not taking a short-term contract in all likelihood unless his market completely tanks. (And if it does, a pillow deal in Buffalo would actually be pretty intriguing.) It thins out pretty quickly after that. Maybe Semyon Varlamov would be of interest with the idea of being a platoon goalie instead of a strict backup and he wouldn’t need a long-term commitment. He might make the most sense to me to partner with either Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (it wouldn’t shock me if Levi got some run in Rochester where he could start the bulk of the games over Eric Comrie) and he could be an upgrade on what Craig Anderson brought to the table this season.
As for the defenseman, I certainly agree with you. I had that as one of the items on their Offseason Checklist last weekend. They have a decent top four that should continue to improve but getting one extra second-pairing-caliber blueliner would be a big hedge against injuries and inconsistency from their youngsters while also letting them balance out the ice time a little bit. That could pay dividends down the stretch next season.
joebad34: Sabres question: It is obvious V. Olofsson will be on the trading block. His upside is 25-30 potential goals. His downside is business decisions heading into corners; that being said, can he be moved for a right-shot d-man or just a draft pick or two? What would the value be?
Frankly, I don’t think Victor Olofsson’s trade value is going to be all that high. Here’s a player in the prime of his career with a strong offensive game…that is seeing his ice time dip each year to the point of being a healthy scratch at times. This is called not moving Olofsson at his high point in value, especially when he carries a $4.75MM cap charge.
Quality right-shot defenders are in short supply in high demand. Wingers with a decent scoring touch but some warts in their all-around game are in much greater supply and much lower demand. If Buffalo was to get a quality right-shot defender in a trade here, it’d be surprising unless Olofsson is merely salary ballast with the Sabres sending out a strong pick and/or prospect in the deal as well. As for moving him for draft picks? I don’t see that happening; a team with $4.75MM in cap space is likely to decide that they’d be better off spending that on a free agent than trading assets for Olofsson unless it was a later-round selection which wouldn’t be a great return for him by any stretch.
If the Sabres decide that they need to move on from Olofsson, I think the likeliest scenario is a swap of ‘change of scenery’ players. They’d get someone else on an expiring contract at a similar price tag with the hope that the other player will fit in better than Buffalo and Olofsson will do better with the other team. I don’t think he has much more value than that in this cap-strapped marketplace.
rdiddy75: Do the Jets get rid of trio of Dubois, Scheifele, and Wheeler and retool the team?
It certainly feels like they need to do something, doesn’t it? The way they went out in the playoffs followed by Rick Bowness’ pointed comments would seem to suggest they can’t just run it back. But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made it known that he believes in this core group and seemingly indicated in his press conference that as long as they get to the playoffs, they’ve accomplished something. (At least, that was one of my takeaways from his comments.)
With that in mind, I don’t think the Jets are going to choose to blow up the core just yet. I suspect they’re willing to move on from Blake Wheeler but how much of a trade market is there going to be for him at $8.25MM? As a small market team, I’m not sure paying him $5.5MM over two years not to play for them is a move they’re going to want to make. Maybe there’s a swap with them retaining up to half of his contract available but the return still won’t be great.
As for Pierre-Luc Dubois, I think they might hold onto him. If you’re a team interested in acquiring him, how much are you willing to pay up if you believe there’s a strong chance he tests free agency? Probably a first-rounder, a decent prospect, and either another pick or salary ballast. But they can do that deal at the trade deadline where Winnipeg can retain half the contract, allowing the acquiring team to be able to afford another player they’d have had to clear out if they acquiring Dubois now. Again, it comes back to my belief that Cheveldayoff thinks this core is good enough to be in the mix. If he can get the same types of offers in February than he can now, why not run it back and hope for a hot start that convinces some pending free agents (even if it’s not Dubois) to re-sign?
Mark Scheifele is an interesting case. The run-it-back logic for Dubois applies here somewhat although with Scheifele, is he willing to sign a long-term extension this summer with Winnipeg or elsewhere? If so, that changes the picture. With the UFA market not being strong, if Scheifele is willing to sign a new deal now, he becomes the top middleman available and Winnipeg should be able to get a significant return, one that would justify moving him now. But if Cheveldayoff thinks that a strong first half could persuade Scheifele to stay in Winnipeg, it wouldn’t shock me if he holds on to him as well.
Long story short, yes, I think there’s a shakeup coming in Winnipeg and it wouldn’t shock me if none of those players are around a year from now. I’m just not convinced it’s happening this summer but rather closer to the trade deadline unless they can get a king’s ransom for their two centers in the next six weeks or so.
SkidRowe: 1) If you were the Bruins’ GM, how would you approach the future?
2) The Bruins’ long-term core (three or more years remaining) is Pastrnak, Zacha, Coyle, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo. Is that good enough to rebuild around?
1) What’s the saying, all good things must come to an end? That’s where things are for Boston. They don’t have many draft picks, nor do they have a particularly strong prospect pool. Frankly, that’s to be expected from a team that has tried to contend for this long. So in the short term, I’d be looking at trying to recover some of those futures.
Matt Grzelcyk and Derek Forbort are on expiring contracts and should have some value. I talked about in a recent mailbag the hypothetical trade value of Jeremy Swayman but if you’re going to take a short-term step back, maybe it’s Linus Ullmark that they should look to sell high on. As noted earlier, there isn’t a great free agent market for goaltenders nor are there a lot of viable starters that could be traded for. Coming off a likely Vezina-winning year, he’d bring back some quality futures as well. Up front, I’d explore moving Taylor Hall who doesn’t really fit their long-term core plans. If Jake DeBrusk isn’t part of those long-term plans, he’d be on the sell list too. Making some of those moves would help free up some cap flexibility to round out the rest of their roster while stockpiling some much-needed futures.
If they had a bit more cap space and a first-round pick in the next couple of years, I could make a case to justify trying to trade for someone like Scheifele and extending him even though it runs counter to everything I just wrote as a key center is something they really need. If they could get that, do it and figure out the rest later. However, I don’t think they have the trade assets to do that right now. But make some of these seller moves and maybe they’ll have a shot at a move like that a year from now.
2) It depends on what you mean by good enough. Is that the future core of another perennial contender? Probably not. For me, the true core would be David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Hampus Lindholm with Swayman (under team control for three more years) part of it if he’s still around next season. That’s a foundation that should be good enough to hang around the Wild Card mix but they need a true impact center if they want a shot at returning to contender status.
Unclemike1526: With the talent in this year’s draft, I don’t see the possibility of the Hawks trading up far from 19. Maybe a couple of spaces even with four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. How far do you think they can realistically move up? Obviously, they’re not trading Bedard, But I’m sure they would love to move up from 19. Barring that, who are some guys they could use those picks to trade for players already in the NHL, that they might like?
It has gotten awfully difficult to trade up lately, especially last year where the only pick swap in the first round was 11 for 27, 34, and 45 with San Jose deciding that they were better off with adding some extra picks to a prospect pool that isn’t the deepest. That was in a weak draft. In a strong one, I could see teams being more protective of those early selections. If Chicago wanted to move up a few spots, I think there’s a way to do it that would get them to somewhere between 14-18 but it would be dependent on one of those teams losing out on the player that they were hoping to get. Every year, we hear GMs talk about how they were trying to trade up (or back into the late first round) and just couldn’t find anyone willing to do so. That could very well happen here.
Honestly, I’m not sure that their best asset to try to move up is their extra picks. Instead, I think their cap space could be. For example, Pittsburgh (at 14) is a team that could benefit from creating some cap room. If the Blackhawks were willing to take on Mikael Granlund’s remaining two years, for example, would that be good enough for the Penguins to slide down to 19; is the extra cap space worth dropping down? I suppose Calgary at 16 could be an option as well as they’re quite capped out although there isn’t an obvious contract to fit into a framework like this. Vancouver at 11 could be a possibility as well although Chicago would probably have to take a sizable deal back for the Canucks to slide eight spots.
As for flipping those second-rounders for players, there are too many players to list. With so many teams being tight to the cap, they could get some good players if they wanted to flip those picks. I just don’t think they’re intending to do that. Getting the top pick isn’t going to flip the switch and end the rebuild. They’re not a player or two away from being a playoff contender so why deviate from the course now? Get those prospects in the system and then when they are ready to start adding to their roster again, they can deal from their picks or their prospect pool for those players. I could see Chicago trading out from 55 outright to get a 2024 second-rounder, giving them a possible chip to move for a player at that time if they think they’re ready to flip that switch next offseason.
Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Hurricanes, Rogers
In the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes that Lightning assistant GM Mathieu Darche remains in the mix for the vacant Penguins GM position. Darche received consideration for the opening in Montreal last season that later went to Kent Hughes. He has been with Tampa Bay for the last four seasons but this is only his first one with the AGM title. Friedman adds that former Toronto GM Kyle Dubas is their desired candidate and they’re prepared to wait a little bit to give him some time to decide if he wants the job but if he doesn’t, it could be Darche getting his first opportunity at running a team.
More from the Metropolitan:
- Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer examines a trio of Hurricanes forwards that he thinks could be on the move this summer. Teuvo Teravainen has one year left on his contract at a $5.4MM AAV but will be seeking more for 2024-25. If Carolina doesn’t think they can extend him or they don’t want to pay his asking price, it’s possible he could move. DeCock also wonders if the team might opt to sell high on RFA center Martin Necas who’s coming off a career year or Jack Drury who has done well in the minors but hasn’t put it together yet in the NHL; at 23, he’s still young enough that a rebuilding team might have some interest.
- The Capitals have invited forward Jack Rogers to their development camp this summer, reports Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal (Twitter link). The 20-year-old played his freshman year at St. Cloud State this season, picking up three goals and five assists in 34 games. Rogers is a year removed from a 30-goal campaign with Steinbach of the MJHL. Washington almost certainly won’t be signing Rogers but they’ll get some information on him should they decide to pursue him later in his college career.
Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames
The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.
2022-23 was not the season that the Flames were hoping for. A roster that underwent some significant changes this summer still bolstered a strong lineup on paper but too many players struggled, resulting in them just missing out on the postseason. There have already been changes as Brad Treliving opted not to return as GM while Don Maloney, while acting as interim GM, dismissed head coach Darryl Sutter. Now, they’re on their third GM in six weeks with Craig Conroy taking over this week and he’ll have plenty of work to do this offseason.
Hire A Head Coach
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. With Sutter gone, the Flames are once again in need of a new bench boss. It’s a common theme for Calgary as the last coach to be behind the bench for 200 straight games was Bob Hartley and he was let go back in 2016. (If you’re curious who the last Calgary coach to coach for 300 straight games in a single stint, you have to go all the way back to the late Bob Johnson in the 1980s.)
Conroy, who has been with the Flames’ front office for 13 years, is familiar with the internal options, of which there are a few. Associate coach Kirk Muller has experience running an NHL bench back with Carolina while Ryan Huska has been an assistant for the past five seasons and was believed to be a finalist for the job in Detroit last season. Meanwhile, Mitch Love, their coach at AHL Calgary, has won the Louis AR Pieri Memorial Award as Coach of the Year for the past two seasons, his only two seasons behind the bench.
Externally, the usual candidates are fairly well-known at this point, ranging from veterans like Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette to coaches looking for a second opportunity such as Andrew Brunette and Travis Green, plus first-time hopefuls like Spencer Carbery, Alex Tanguay, and Jay Leach. Getting back to their offensive underperformance this season, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking for a head coach that’s offensive-minded to help get the most out of their core group and turn that weakness around.
Extension Discussions
During his introductory press conference, Conroy indicated that it “doesn’t make sense” to enter next season with as many potential unrestricted free agents as there currently are. It’s not as if there are one or two to deal with either; there are seven of some significance.
The most prominent one that Conroy will have to deal with is Elias Lindholm. The 28-year-old is only one season removed from a 42-goal campaign, plays big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill, and consistently wins faceoffs at an above-average rate. Lindholm isn’t thought of by all as a number one center but he’d fit that role on quite a few teams. He has been on a team-friendly $4.85MM for the last five years with one more season to go. It’s safe to say he’ll be getting several million more on this next contract, one that has a good chance to be a max-term agreement as well. There are plenty of teams that would love to add Lindholm this summer in a weak UFA market so if Lindholm expresses a desire either to test free agency in 2024 or indicates that he’s likely to move on, Conroy might opt to move him quickly.
Two other forwards that need to be looked at are long-time center Mikael Backlund and winger Tyler Toffoli. Both players are coming off career years offensively which will certainly complicate things. Backlund will hit the market next year at the age of 35 and there will be questions as to how much longer he can play a top-six role which will go a long way toward determining his next salary. He’s currently on a $5.35MM deal and if Backlund thinks he has another strong year or two offensively in him, he could be looking for a small raise. As for Toffoli, he has fit in quite well since being acquired last season and has reached 20 goals seven times in the last nine years, averaging 27 over the last three. His AAV is $4.25MM on a deal that looked to be a bargain from the day he signed it and he could push to land closer to $6MM on a new multi-year agreement.
On the back end, no fewer than four regulars can test the market in 2024, headlined by Noah Hanifin. Aside from 2021-22, his offense has never really stood out but even so, he can log heavy minutes and will be in the prime of his career that year at 27. He’s at $4.85MM now and a long-term extension should see him net more than teammate Mackenzie Weegar ($6.5MM) to once again become their top-paid defender. If he’s not willing to re-sign and he’s put on the trade block, Conroy will have no shortage of interest.
The other three rearguards aren’t as significant of a concern. Chris Tanev is an effective shutdown defender but his market might not be as strong next year with teams starting to shy away from those stay-at-home players which could move his cost below his current $4.5MM price tag. Nikita Zadorov has been year-to-year for the most part for several seasons (2023-24 being the lone exception) so there isn’t a ton of risk having him in a walk year while Oliver Kylington will be returning after a year off; he’ll need time to show if his 2021-22 performance was an outlier or a sign of things to come.
Suffice it to say, with this many notable players eligible for extensions as of July 1st, expect Conroy to be reaching out to the agents of those players soon if he hasn’t already done so.
Add Top-Six Forward
This was a stated goal by Conroy in his press conference and with the team finishing in the bottom half of the league in goals scored, it makes sense. While there is legitimate room for optimism that there should be some bounce-back performances under a new head coach (I don’t think anyone expects another 55-point effort from Jonathan Huberdeau after being over a point per game for four seasons in a row), simply running it back with this exact core would also be risky.
To that end, Conroy also indicated that he was likely to move a core piece out. This also makes some sense considering his comments about the 2024 UFA class as there’s a good chance that not all of those players will want to re-sign this summer; if Conroy wants to avoid the risk of another Johnny Gaudreau situation, it could be those unwilling to extend now that move. Speculatively, Andrew Mangiapane – signed for two more years at a $5.8MM cap charge – could be someone they look to move in a player-for-player swap.
Create Cap Space
It’s one thing for Conroy to want to add a top-six piece but it’s another to be able to afford to do it. Frankly, they can’t afford one with over $82MM on the books already, per CapFriendly, with a few roster spots to fill. With the Upper Limit projected to be at or close to $83.5MM next season, that’s not exactly a workable scenario. That’s why it makes sense for their top-six addition up front to come at the expense of one of their 2024 UFA class as frankly, they can’t afford one otherwise.
That possible move notwithstanding, Conroy will need to free up a few million more in cap space. One way to chip away at that would be to move backup goaltender Daniel Vladar who will begin his new two-year deal next season at a $2.2MM price tag. Going to a cheaper second-stringer or promoting prospect Dustin Wolf would free up a little over $1MM, enough to fill at least one of those remaining roster spots.
Another spot could be to chip away at the back end which, with Kylington’s return, will cost them over $27.25MM, putting them near the top of the league in spending at that position. Trying to move out someone like Zadorov for a cheaper option or for a future asset would certainly help free up some wiggle room. Accordingly, as much as Conroy will be looking to add this summer, he almost certainly is going to need to subtract from it as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: Schenn, Red Wings, Senators Sale
Maple Leafs defenseman Luke Schenn noted in an appearance on TSN 1050 (audio link) that there had been some discussions about a possible contract extension but that those are now on hold with their search for a new GM. The 33-year-old was brought in from Vancouver prior to the trade deadline and he fit in well in his second stint with Toronto, averaging four hits per game in 15 regular season contests, a number that jumped to nearly five per night in the playoffs. At this point in his career, Schenn is a third-pairing option that can kill penalties but he should still be positioned to earn a nice bump on his $850K AAV from the past two years. However, if he wants to remain with the cap-strapped Maple Leafs, he’ll almost certainly have to leave at least a bit of money on the table to do so.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Red Wings assistant GM Shawn Horcoff acknowledged to Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News (subscription link) that he will be looking to add some more veterans to their AHL team for next season. Grand Rapids is likely to feature several of Detroit’s top prospects in 2023-24 but rather than put all of them in top roles right away, they’re going to hedge their bets with some older players that can play an impact role at the beginning. It’s already going to be a busy summer for the Griffins who will have a new coaching staff next season and if Horcoff has his way, they’ll now be picking up some key veterans as well.
- Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch suggests that the winner of the sale process for the Senators is now likely to be revealed next week since it wasn’t determined prior to the start of the Memorial Day long weekend. At the moment, none of the four groups have been told that they’re out although the Neko Sparks-led group is still trying to secure financing, a sign that their bid is on the lower end. When the bids were submitted earlier this month, Steve Apostolopoulos is believed to have offered the most money at $1BB.
Sabres Sign Ryan Johnson To Entry-Level Deal
There had been some question as to whether Ryan Johnson would sign with Buffalo or test free agency later this summer. In the end, he opted to stay with the team that drafted him as the team announced that they’ve signed the defenseman to a two-year, entry-level contract that begins next season. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The 21-year-old was a first-round pick by Buffalo back in 2019 (31st overall) out of Sioux Falls of the USHL. Johnson then went to college at the University of Minnesota but didn’t exactly light it up, scoring just twice in his first two seasons. However, he showed considerable improvement in his junior year and carried that over to 2022-23 where he picked up 18 points in 40 games for the Golden Gophers.
Had Buffalo not signed Johnson or if he decided that he wanted to test free agency, the Sabres would have received a compensatory second-round selection. Instead, they’ll get an opportunity to add another young defender to their system, joining Nikita Novikov and Vsevolod Komarov who both signed recently as well.
While Johnson hasn’t played since the end of his college campaign, he has been assigned to AHL Rochester with the Americans still playing in the playoffs. Given how long he has been out, it would be surprising to see him suit up right away but if the Amerks move on to the Calder Cup Final, Johnson might get a chance to make his pro debut this season.
Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks
Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We begin our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Anaheim Ducks.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Trevor Zegras – After finishing as the runner-up in Calder Trophy voting last season, Zegras took a small step forward this season, setting new benchmarks in assists (42) and points (65) while matching his goal total from 2021-22. That allowed him to lead the team in scoring this season. As a center, the 22-year-old is well-positioned to land a significant long-term deal if that’s the way he chooses to go. A max-term agreement could very well push the AAV past the $8MM mark. However, with still five years of team control remaining (he didn’t play enough in 2020-21 to accrue a season of service time for UFA purposes), it’s possible that one or both sides look to a shorter-term bridge deal. That would lower the AAV to somewhere in the $6MM range for now but potentially set Zegras up to push for much more down the road in a more favorable cap environment. Whichever route they take, a big payday is coming his way.
F Troy Terry – In 2021-22, Terry narrowly edged out Zegras for the team lead in points. This season, the tables were flipped but the 25-year-old still put up his second straight 60-point campaign after having just 48 career points over his first 129 NHL appearances. One of the goals for Terry this year would have been to show that his breakout year wasn’t a fluke. Mission accomplished on that front and he is set to reap the benefits. Two years away from UFA eligibility, Terry will have arbitration eligibility this summer and it’s likely that GM Pat Verbeek will be looking to do a long-term agreement and avoid the potential for a hearing. After playing on an AAV of $1.45MM the last three seasons, Terry’s next deal could more than quadruple that cap charge.
D Jamie Drysdale – At a time when the Ducks have all three top CHL defensemen, it could be suggested that Drysdale has fallen off the radar. The 21-year-old suffered a torn labrum in the eighth game of the season and that was it for his year. At that to the fact that he only suited up 24 times in his first year and Drysdale has just 113 total NHL appearances under his belt and the Ducks are working with a small sample size here. Drysdale, a 2020 first-round pick (sixth overall), is still a significant part of Anaheim’s future but with such a limited sample size to work with and coming off a year that was more or less a write-off, a bridge contract is the likely outcome. That could push his price tag closer to the $2MM range on a two-year deal and a bit closer to $2.5MM on a three-year term.
F Max Comtois – Two years ago, it looked like Comtois was coming into his own and was on his way to becoming at least a capable second-line power forward. Players like those have a lot of value but then GM Bob Murray wanted to see if his performance was repeatable first. That proved to be a wise move as Comtois simply hasn’t been able to play at the same level, failing to reach 20 points for the second straight season. He’s owed a $2.445MM qualifying offer this summer which is a bit on the high side for someone struggling to produce. On the other hand, losing him for free would sting with how important of a piece it looked like he was going to be not long ago. Verbeek will need to decide if he’ll give Comtois one more chance under a new head coach or if it’s time to move on.
Other RFAs: D Axel Andersson, D Simon Benoit, G Lukas Dostal, G Olle Eriksson Ek, F Benoit-Olivier Groulx, F Bryce Kindopp, F Josiah Slavin
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Kevin Shattenkirk – While the stigma of having his four-year, $26.6MM deal bought out by the Rangers back in 2019 still exists, Shattenkirk has settled in nicely in a lesser role first with Tampa Bay and the last three seasons with Anaheim. The 34-year-old has been a capable secondary producer throughout his career while becoming more of a willing shot-blocker recently. His days of playing on the top pairing are gone but as a fourth defender capable of logging around 20 minutes a night, there should be some interest in Shattenkirk once some of the big names come off the board. He had a $3.9MM AAV on his deal with Anaheim and the veteran should be able to come somewhat close to that on his next contract.
G Anthony Stolarz – This season was one to forget for Stolarz (the same can basically be said for many of Anaheim’s veterans) but prior to that, he has shown some promise in limited duty, including a .917 SV% in 23 starts back in 2021-22. The 29-year-old isn’t going to be near the top of the market for goaltenders but budget-conscious teams looking for a cheap second-stringer with a bit of upside should be looking his way. That mindset will likely describe a few teams which should give Stolarz a decent market and a shot at surpassing the $1MM mark for the first time in his career.
F Derek Grant – It wasn’t a great platform year for the veteran who had multiple stints on injured reserve, limiting him to just 46 games. However, he still managed to pick up 18 points in those contests, a year after collecting 15 goals and 29 points, both career highs. The 33-year-old also won more than 55% of his faceoffs while logging plenty of ice time shorthanded. Now with over 400 games under his belt, Grant is well-known at this point as a defensively capable middleman that can chip in a bit offensively. Those players don’t get big contracts in free agency but he should have several offers that come in around the $1.5MM he has made in each of the last three seasons.
Other UFAs: D Nathan Beaulieu, D Michael Del Zotto, D Scott Harrington, F Justin Kirkland, F Jayson Megna, D John Moore, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Priskie, F Dylan Sikura, D Andrej Sustr
Projected Cap Space
Cap space won’t be an issue for Anaheim this offseason as they currently have more than $39MM in cap space based on the projected $83.5MM Upper Limit for next season. New deals for Zegras and Terry will take a sizable chunk out of that but the Ducks still project to be well under the cap for 2023-24, one that is expected to be another rebuilding effort. If there is budget room for them to take on a bad contract or two while being compensated for it with prospects and/or draft picks, they could be a team to watch for in the coming weeks.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.