Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
The calendar has now flipped to March which means the trade deadline is now just days away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
For the past several years, the Lightning have been legitimate Stanley Cup contenders but all teams eventually reach the point where they can no longer get to that level. With Tampa Bay currently holding down the final Wild Card spot in the East, that point may very well have arrived. However, don’t expect that to dissuade GM Julien BriseBois as he’ll almost certainly be looking to add to his roster in the coming days.
Record
32-24-6, 5th in the Atlantic
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$7.383MM of LTIR space on deadline day, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2024: TB 3rd, TB 5th, TB 6th, CHI 7th, MIN 7th, TB 7th
2025: TB 2nd, TB 3rd, TB 4th, TB 5th, TB 6th, TB 7th
Tampa Bay previously traded their 2024 and 2025 first-round picks in the Brandon Hagel and Tanner Jeannot trades respectively. Both of those selections are top-ten protected.
Trade Chips
The Lightning aren’t in a spot where they can realistically move away any of their core players from their roster so instead, their non-draft-pick chips are going to come from their prospect pool. More specifically, players that might be on the cusp of an NHL opportunity might be their best options to deal from.
Up front, Waltteri Merela comes to mind as someone who fits that profile. He was up with the Lightning for a good chunk of time at the start of the season – getting into 19 games – but eventually was sent to the minors where he has fared relatively well since then with 20 points in 34 games. Signed last spring after some strong years in Finland, the 25-year-old fits as a potential low-cost player who could hold his own on the fourth line for a couple of years. A restricted free agent this summer, Merela should land somewhere close to the league minimum with a one-way offer. This type of profile isn’t the most exciting for trade purposes but teams may value that over one of their later-round selections.
Defensively, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg is in a similar situation. He has played 21 games with the Lightning this season after signing with them in the spring, days after Arizona opted not to sign the 23-year-old. Martinsen Lilleberg has played a sheltered role thus far but has put up positive possession numbers while logging a little under 16 minutes a night. He has another year left on his entry-level deal and would likely be viewed as near NHL-ready depth, something sellers are often interested in. Maxwell Crozier is in his first professional campaign and has suited up 11 times with the Lightning. He’s also 23 and has another year left on his deal and falls into a similar category as Martinsen Lilleberg.
Their best trade chip, if they’re willing to move him, might be goaltender Hugo Alnefelt. The 22-year-old has shown steady improvement in his first three years in North America and as things stand, he profiles as the eventual partner for Andrei Vasilevskiy who is signed through the 2027-28 season and likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Accordingly, the smarter play might be to move Alnefelt and with the year he’s having with AHL Syracuse (2.31 GAA, .910 SV% in 22 games), his value should be up. If a selling team has a near-term opening coming in the crease, someone like Alnefelt would be appealing.
Of their unsigned prospects, Isaac Howard is the headliner. The 19-year-old forward was a first-round pick in 2022 (31st overall) and after struggling in his freshman year at Minnesota-Duluth, he has been a point-a-game player at Michigan State. With their next two first-round picks being spoken for, Howard is the one piece they have in their prospect pool that carries similar value. If BriseBois is inquiring about anyone of significance, it won’t take long for the other team to ask about Howard.
Other Potential Trade Chips: F Alex Barre-Boulet, F Gage Goncalves, D Philippe Myers, F Eamon Powell
Team Needs
1) Defensive Upgrades – Injuries on the back end have been an issue for the Lightning this season, resulting in some of their youngsters getting early NHL opportunities. But while most of those players have eventually come back, that isn’t the case for Mikhail Sergachev who is believed to be out for the rest of the regular season and a good chunk of the playoffs after undergoing surgery last month to stabilize fractures to his left tibia and fibula. Their entire cap space is based on his presence on LTIR. They need a top-four player at a minimum and potentially two to take some pressure off some of the players they have toward the bottom of their depth chart.
2) Backup Goalie Upgrade – Tampa Bay needs to have a low-cost backup goaltender with how their salary cap spending is structured, resulting in long-time third-string netminder Jonas Johansson getting the nod. While he held his own early on when Vasilevskiy was injured, he has hardly played since then, playing just seven times since December. When he has got the nod in that stretch, he hasn’t fared well, posting a save percentage of just .862. While it’s quite possible that Johansson is the backup again next season, Tampa Bay could use some of their rest-of-year cap flexibility to get a more proven second-stringer on an expiring contract to give Vasilevskiy an extra night off here and there. That might be beneficial from a rest perspective as they’ll need him at his best for the postseason if they can get in.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stars Notes: Seguin, Stankoven, Tanev
While the Stars are currently without center Tyler Seguin and will be for the next several weeks, don’t expect Dallas to put him on LTIR and go on a bit of a spending spree. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that the 32-year-old is expected to return from his lower-body injury before the end of the regular season. Accordingly, they’d have to be cap-compliant before activating him from LTIR so they couldn’t go and spend several million of his $9.85MM AAV at the trade deadline. That said, they could eventually place him on LTIR to bring up an extra player or two for depth purposes after the deadline with those players returning to the minors once Seguin is able to return. Dallas has $1.17MM in cap room, per CapFriendly, thanks to Evgenii Dadonov’s LTIR placement so their options to add will be limited in the coming days.
More from Dallas:
- Speaking of returning to the minors, that’s what Logan Stankoven did today as the team announced that they’ve sent the 20-year-old back to AHL Texas. The forward has been shuttled back and forth in recent days and likely will be recalled before their game on Saturday versus San Jose. Stankoven has been productive since making his NHL debut last month, recording three goals and one assist in his first four NHL appearances.
- One player who might not be playing against the Sharks tomorrow is defenseman Chris Tanev. The veteran was acquired earlier this week from Calgary as part of a three-team trade but team reporter Mike Heika relays (Twitter link) that the veteran is dealing with visa issues and may not be available to play in that one. In that case, he’d be lined up to make his debut on Tuesday on the back end of the home-and-home set with San Jose. Tanev has 14 points and 171 blocks in 56 games so far and is expected to play a big role for Dallas down the stretch.
Red Wings Reportedly Listening To Offers On Some Defensemen
Detroit has had strong depth on the back end for the majority of the season. With a trade market that isn’t the most robust, it appears they may be looking to take advantage of that as ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reports that the Red Wings are listening to offers on some of their blueliners.
While Kaplan’s report doesn’t specify which players in particular they’re listening on, the shorter list might be who they likely wouldn’t consider moving. Moritz Seider is clearly off the table while Jake Walman is having a career year and is on a value contract and likely isn’t going to be someone GM Steve Yzerman would be willing to part with. Beyond those two, however, all bets could be off.
Shayne Gostisbehere has been strong offensively as expected, notching 36 points in 57 games to lead all Detroit rearguards in scoring. He’s on a one-year, $4.125MM contract and a playoff contender could look to try to add him. That said, the Red Wings are squarely in the playoff mix themselves and moving out a key contributor might not be the right course of action if they’re trying to end their postseason drought.
Among their other defenders, Justin Holl hasn’t had quite the season Detroit was hoping for when they gave him $3.4MM per year for three seasons. He has often been the odd man out in their defensive rotation so it stands to reason that they might want to try to get out of those final two years. A right-shot defender, Holl’s handedness could give him a potential suitor or two. The late-summer acquisition of Jeff Petry helped create the logjam on the back end. With double retention on his contract, his price tag is down to a manageable $2.343MM through next season and is someone a few more teams could fit in. However, he has a 15-team no-trade clause and might not be inclined to leave his hometown team. Detroit also cannot pay down his contract anymore as two retentions is the maximum on a player.
As for their other left-shot blueliners, Ben Chiarot’s $4.75MM price tag through 2025-26 might be difficult for a lot of teams to absorb and while he isn’t playing big minutes like he did in Montreal, he’s still a top-four option for them. Olli Maatta, meanwhile, is more affordable at $3MM through next season although he’s being used exclusively on the third pairing; that AAV for that role is a little high. With Simon Edvinsson making good progress with AHL Grand Rapids, there’s less risk in moving a left-shot option knowing that the 2021 first-round is close to being ready to step in.
With the Red Wings holding down a Wild Card spot, it would be surprising to see Yzerman sell like he did last season. Frankly, adding to his group would be more than defensible. But with the market for blueliners not being the greatest, it appears as if he’s open to selling one even though there isn’t necessarily an obvious candidate to move for top value.
Detroit is one of the few playoff teams with ample cap space so they will have the ability to get creative between now and the March 8th trade deadline; clearing out a veteran on the back end would only open up more flexibility on that front unless they opt for a player-for-player swap. Either way, it appears as if they’ll be a team to keep an eye on in the coming days.
Jamie Drysdale Out Week To Week
When Flyers defenseman Jamie Drysdale suffered an injury to his left shoulder on Sunday (the same one he injured last season), there were concerns that another long-term absence was on the horizon. However, it appears that won’t quite be the case as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the blueliner is listed as week to week with some hope that he’ll be able to return before the end of the season.
Drysdale played in just eight games last season because of his shoulder injury and injuries have limited him to just 27 appearances so far this year between Anaheim and Philadelphia. When healthy, the 2020 sixth-overall pick has been quite an effective player and when the Flyers picked him up as part of the Cutter Gauthier trade, they felt they were getting a cornerstone piece of their future.
With another absence for Drysdale, it would be fair to wonder if Philadelphia’s plans for next week’s trade deadline would be affected, particularly with the decisions they have to make on pending unrestricted blueliners Sean Walker and Nick Seeler. However, Friedman indicated in the most recent 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that this isn’t likely to be the case since GM Daniel Briere continues to take the big-picture view and that Drysdale’s injury, the severity of which wasn’t known at the time of the comments, wasn’t going to impact their plans. At this point, the asking price of the two veterans will be the difference-maker in whether they stay or go.
In the case of Drysdale, the fact he’s not a lock to be out for the season is certainly a positive sign. However, the news certainly could have been better as the 21-year-old now faces another absence of some length, further delaying his development and adaptation to his new team.
West Notes: Seguin, Ferraro, Duclair, Afanasyev
Stars center Tyler Seguin missed Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury and he’ll be out for at least a little while longer as Lia Assimakopoulos of the Dallas Morning News relays that Seguin is listed as out week to week. Head coach Peter DeBoer noted that he has been dealing with a lingering injury that hasn’t been getting better and actually got worse after his last game back on Thursday. The 32-year-old is in the middle of his best offensive season in a little while with 45 points through 58 games; his 0.78 points-per-game average is his best since 2018-19. If Dallas believes Seguin will miss at least 10 games and 24, he could be shifted to LTIR to give them some short-term salary cap flexibility.
Elsewhere in the Western Conference:
- Sharks defenseman Mario Ferraro has been a speculative trade candidate. He’s not a typical rental player who moves at this time of year as he’s signed through 2025-26 at a reasonable $3.25MM price tag which would be appealing to several teams. However, his agent Peter Wallen told San Jose Hockey Now’s Sheng Peng that GM Mike Grier informed him that Ferraro is not actively being shopped. The 25-year-old is fifth in the NHL in blocked shots so far with 151 in 52 games.
- Still with San Jose, winger Anthony Duclair told Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News (Twitter link) that there have been no discussions about a possible extension with the Sharks. Duclair, who represents himself in negotiations, is a pending unrestricted free agent and it’s reasonable to infer that if a new contract isn’t in place by the March 8th trade deadline, he’d be a likely candidate to be traded. Duclair is having a down year after putting up 31 goals with Florida last season as he has just 11 goals and eight assists in 59 games.
- The Predators announced that they’ve returned winger Egor Afanasyev to AHL Milwaukee. The 23-year-old was recalled two weeks ago but didn’t see much game action with Nashville, suiting up just twice where he was held off the scoresheet. Afanasyev has been quite productive with the Admirals, however, collecting 21 goals and 21 assists through 42 games so far this season.
Hurricanes Notes: Necas, Rees, Webber
While the Hurricanes might not be shopping forward Martin Necas, it doesn’t appear as if they’re hanging up the phone either when teams call about him. Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that the team has made it known that they’re willing to listen on the 25-year-old. Necas had a breakout year last season with 71 points in 82 games and has followed that up with 42 points in 53 games so far this season.
While that’s not the type of player that they should even be listening to offers on while they’re sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, it’s worth noting that Necas will be a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration eligibility. He’ll be owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer and could push for close to double that much; if they’ve determined they can’t afford him for next season, then they could decide that moving him now would yield the most value. Of course, if they did so, they’d also have a big hole to fill in their top six.
More from Carolina:
- The Hurricanes have re-assigned forward Jamieson Rees from AHL Springfield to Charlotte, per a team release from the Checkers. Carolina doesn’t have its own affiliate this season and Rees had been quite limited with Springfield where he had just three assists in 30 games after putting up 42 points in 65 games last season. The 23-year-old is in the final season of his entry-level contract and will be a restricted free agent without arbitration rights this summer.
- Prospect defenseman Cade Webber is in the final season of his college career and has to sign with Carolina by August 15th or become an unrestricted free agent. According to Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal (Twitter link), the 23-year-old is leaning toward the latter option of the two. The 6’7 Webber was a fourth-round pick by the Hurricanes back in 2019 (99th overall) and while his offensive game is quite limited) he has just one goal in his four seasons with Boston University, he’s leading Division I in blocks with 107 and is a true stay-at-home shutdown type of defender.
Stars Recall Derrick Pouliot, Logan Stankoven
Feb. 26: Pouliot and Stankoven were both recalled to Dallas on Monday morning, per a team announcement. With Seguin not at the Stars’ Monday morning practice, per Bally Sports Southwest’s Brian Rea, Stankoven will play his second career NHL game tonight against the Islanders. Hakanpää and Lundkvist also remain out, per Rea, so Pouliot will play as well.
Feb. 25: The Stars returned Pouliot and Stankoven to the AHL on Sunday, per a team announcement. Both players suited up in last night’s 2-1 win over the Hurricanes, with Stankoven logging a +1 rating and three shots on goal in 15:20 of ice time during his NHL debut. Pouliot played a team-low 9:56, recording one hit. One or both of Pouliot and Stankoven may find themselves back on the NHL roster ahead of Monday’s game against the Islanders, depending upon the availability of Tyler Seguin (lower body), Hakanpää, and Lundkvist.
Feb. 24: The Stars have brought up some reinforcements for their game tonight in Carolina, announcing the recalls of forward Logan Stankoven and defenseman Derrick Pouliot from AHL Texas.
It’s the second recall of the week for Stankoven although his first one only lasted a matter of hours without him getting into the lineup. That said, it’s worth noting that he was a late scratch for Texas on Friday, suggesting that the 20-year-old might get a chance to suit up this time around. Stankoven has been dominant in the minors in his first professional campaign, leading the league in scoring with 57 points in 47 games.
As for Pouliot, he returns to Dallas after spending just one day off the roster having been sent down yesterday in a move that at least temporarily delayed his waiver clock. The 30-year-old has played in just three NHL games this season but has been productive in the minors, collecting 31 points in 44 appearances so far. With the status of Nils Lundkvist (concussion) and Jani Hakanpaa (upper body) both in question for tonight’s game, Pouliot will once again serve as injury insurance.
With the two recalls, Dallas is now carrying a full 23-player roster.
Five Key Stories: 2/19/24 – 2/25/24
While the trade deadline is now less than two weeks away, activity around the NHL was quite limited over the past seven days. Nevertheless, there was still some news of note which is recapped in our key stories.
Brodzinski Gets Rewarded: One of the nice feel-good stories of the season has been Rangers center Jonny Brodzinski. The 30-year-old had ranged from being a full-time minor leaguer to a serviceable recall option in his first eight professional years and even started this season in the minors. Since being recalled in late November, however, Brodzinski has been a regular in New York’s lineup and he was rewarded for his efforts with a two-year, $1.575MM one-way extension. Only one of his contract years before this one saw him receive a one-way salary so this gives Brodzinski some much-desired job and financial security while the Rangers get a good cap hit for a bottom-six forward.
Vegas Injuries: The Golden Knights had some good and bad news on the injury front. First, they got defenseman Shea Theodore back as he was activated off LTIR after missing nearly three months with an upper-body injury. The 28-year-old has put up five assists since returning to bring him up to the point-per-game mark on the season. However, it wasn’t all good news as winger Mark Stone has landed on IR due to what has been reported as a lacerated spleen and is set to be out for a while. The captain leads Vegas in scoring with 53 points in 56 games so his loss is a significant one. It will need to be determined if he’ll be able to return before the regular season ends. If not, he can go on LTIR, freeing up $9.5MM in extra spending flexibility for the Golden Knights.
Four For Rasmussen: Red Wings center Michael Rasmussen has worked his way into becoming a capable secondary contributor and he was rewarded for his efforts as Detroit signed him to a four-year, $12.8MM contract extension. The deal comes in a little less than double what his qualifying offer would have been ($1.752MM) while giving the Red Wings two extra years of club control. The 24-year-old was the ninth overall pick back in 2017 and while he hasn’t emerged as a top contributor that his draft slot might suggest, he has become a capable two-way player who can play both center and the wing. This price point for that type of versatile middle-six option is decent value for the Red Wings. Detroit still has two prominent RFAs to re-sign this summer, winger Lucas Raymond and defenseman Moritz Seider.
Fleury Doesn’t Want To Move: The future of Wild goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been speculated about in recent weeks with Minnesota struggling until late in the standings; would he want another chance at a possible Stanley Cup run? However, the 39-year-old has indicated that his preference is to stay with the Wild and try to help them make the postseason. Fleury is on an expiring contract and could be of interest to a few contenders for a depth role but with a full no-move clause, he controls his short-term future. If Fleury ultimately chooses to stay, that will take one goaltending option off the market before the March 8th trade deadline.
Houston Looking For NHL Team: Tilman Fertitta, owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets, revealed that he is in talks with the NHL about adding a team in Houston. The market already has NBA, NFL, MLB, and MLS franchises since at least 2005 but is big enough that another prominent sports team should still work. The Toyota Center (where the Rockets play) recently underwent renovations that would make it suitable should the city get an NHL franchise. Fertitta noted that he has had talks with the NHL since 2017 but that those discussions have picked up lately. With the future of the Coyotes looking uncertain, Houston could join Salt Lake City as a possible spot for relocation if their latest arena plans fall apart.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Deadline Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins
With the All-Star break in the rearview, the trade deadline looms large and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
When new Penguins GM Kyle Dubas traded for Erik Karlsson over the summer, it looked as if Pittsburgh was aiming to take another crack at a long playoff run. However, things haven’t gone according to plan as they find themselves outside the playoff picture at the moment although they do have enough games in hand to get right back into the mix. Accordingly, they’re a team whose decision on buying or selling could come right down to the last minute.
Record
26-21-8, 6th in the Metropolitan
Deadline Status
Light Buyer or Reluctant Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$4.5MM of LTIR space on deadline day, 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2024: PIT 2nd, PIT 4th, PIT 6th, NYR 7th, PIT 7th
2025: PIT 1st*, PIT 3rd, PIT 4th, PIT 5th, PIT 6th, PIT 7th
*-If Pittsburgh’s first-round pick this season lands in the top ten, the Penguins have the option to keep it and send San Jose an unprotected 2025 first-round selection as part of the Karlsson trade.
Trade Chips
If the Penguins become sellers, the top chip they have to play is winger Jake Guentzel who could very well be the top forward that moves in the next week and a half. What doesn’t help their cause, however, is that he’s currently on LTIR with an upper-body injury although he’s at least expected back soon after the minimum required absence of 10 games and 24 days. Guentzel sits second on the team in scoring with 52 points in 50 games so far and is the type of top-line addition that doesn’t become available too often at the deadline. On an expiring $6MM contract, the 29-year-old will be eyeing a significant raise on a long-term (or even max-term) agreement; wherever he is after the deadline passes will be the only team that can give him an eighth year directly without needing a sign-and-trade. Worth noting, it’s his LTIR placement that covers all of their current cap space at the moment; Pittsburgh will be quite tight to the Upper Limit when he’s activated.
[Related: Poll: Which Team Will Trade For Jake Guentzel?]
Whether they buy or sell, goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic could attract some interest. The 28-year-old has had a nice bounce-back year after spending a lot of last season in the minors and a 2.67 GAA and a .915 SV% along with a $1.5MM price tag could be appealing for teams looking to upgrade their second-string netminder. If the Penguins are comfortable with veteran Magnus Hellberg as their backup, that would give them a bit of extra spending room ($615K pro-rated).
Buyers are always looking for depth down the middle and while Pittsburgh doesn’t have any viable rental options (Jeff Carter likely isn’t moving with a full no-move clause and a $3.125MM price tag), Lars Eller and Noel Acciari are non-rental veterans who would attract some interest. Both moved at last year’s deadline and had some success with their new teams so they’ve demonstrated they can come in late and still contribute. Eller has one year left after this at $2.45MM while Acciari has two more at $2MM per, price tags that shouldn’t be overly prohibitive for some buyers.
If they wind up being light buyers, prospect Samuel Poulin is someone who stands out as a prospect teams might inquire about. The 23-year-old is wrapping up his entry-level deal this season and is having a good year although he’s currently out with an injury. Waiver-eligible next year, there should be some teams that want to take a look at him at the NHL level that might move someone who could help Pittsburgh’s playoff push.
Other Potential Trade Chips: F Joona Koppanen, D Chad Ruhwedel, D Dmitri Samorukov, D Ty Smith
Team Needs
1) Youth – This one comes directly from Dubas who noted earlier this week that he’d like to see this team get younger. Considering they have the oldest average age in the NHL at 31.3, he’s not wrong about that. With a core group that’s considerably older than the average, getting younger won’t be an easy task or a short-term one but they can start it here by moving out a couple of veterans if they sell and either give the likes of Poulin a chance or acquire a youngster in a trade and get them on the NHL roster. It won’t move the needle much but they need to start somewhere if they’re going to sell.
2) Secondary Scoring – Let’s flip the strategy and look at them as a buyer now in case they go on a bit of a run in the next few games and decide to try to add to their core. Going into today’s action, the Penguins ranked 27th in the league in goals scored. That has largely negated the value of being one of the stingiest defenses in the NHL; even with their scoring struggles, they have the third-best goal differential in the division. Getting Guentzel back would help but if they could find a way to add a top-six winger (or, failing that, a good third-line piece), that might be worth an extra win or two which might be the difference between making and missing the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Central Division Edition
There were plenty of Central Division questions for the mailbag so we’ll give that division the focus here. The rest of the questions will be split into two more segments to run between now and next weekend.
Gmm8811: Thoughts on Doug Armstrong being a buyer or seller before the trade deadline? I don’t think he really has anything to offer that would be of interest to other teams. Scandella, Vrana, and Kapanen could probably be had for a minimal return. I’m also not opposed to Perunovich or Saad being moved. Any type of minor league assets or reserve list players would be acceptable. I don’t think the Blues will make the playoffs this year, so maybe a few tweaks to increase the depth might be useful for next year.
St. Louis is right in the think of the Wild Card race and unless they lose every game between now and the deadline, they’ll probably be right in the race on deadline day. Having said that, this is not a team that anyone is going to call a contender so going big on adding doesn’t make sense. And while they might want to sell, they don’t have much when it comes to rental players to move.
Marco Scandella might get a late-round pick with max retention. Kasperi Kapanen might as well since he can kill penalties which gives him some fourth-line utility in the playoffs. I’m not sure there’s a market for Jakub Vrana though. One rental you didn’t mention was Sammy Blais. I know he’s having a rough year but he’s a fourth liner who can hold his own at five-on-five and provide a lot of physicality. Teams will be looking to add that and at $1MM, he’s on a contract most teams can afford. Of the pending UFAs, he might have the most value. I don’t think the return for Scott Perunovich would be high enough to justify moving him so I think he stays put.
Brandon Saad might be a tough sell with two more years left at $4.5MM. He’s not on a bad contract but that’s a tough one for teams to fit in and St. Louis isn’t going to want to retain on him. Unless it’s a player-for-player move, I suspect he stays put. Pavel Buchnevich will be the big fish if Armstrong decides to sell and aim for missing the playoffs next year. At $5.8MM, he’s pricey but he’s the type of impact top-six addition that is in short supply and high demand.
Money will be tight for St. Louis once Justin Faulk comes off LTIR so they’re in a spot where if they want to add, they also need to subtract. It wouldn’t shock me if they moved Scandella with retention for a pick and then flipped that pick or one close to it elsewhere to maintain their depth so that if they do make the playoffs, they’ll have some options.
WilfPaiement: Marc-Andre Fleury was clobbered again on Tuesday night against Winnipeg and yet we keep hearing that a few likely playoff teams are showing interest. My question is who? And why? Fleury is toast and he won’t make any team better in the playoffs!!!!
I don’t think teams are necessarily showing interest in Fleury as someone they’d want to use a whole lot in the postseason. But here’s a player who has several long playoff games under his belt (with three Stanley Cups), has plenty of postseason playing experience, and is known for being good in the room. If I’m looking to add a piece that can either be an upgrade on my current backup or someone who can handle some extra games down the stretch and be an off-ice contributor as well, Fleury makes some sense.
Is that a particularly exciting profile of a player? Not really. Would Minnesota get a lot for him? Probably not. But if a team has a bit of money left or a need to try to do something between the pipes but doesn’t want to pay a high price, there’s a fit with Fleury. Colorado makes some sense if they’re just looking for a stopgap backup upgrade but some work would need to be done to make the money work.
However, would Fleury want to go somewhere to be the designated bench door opener for the postseason? There’s a lot of speculation that if that’s the role that a contender is envisioning for him, he might just opt to remain with his family in Minnesota and play out the season; it’s not as if they’re out of the playoff hunt by any stretch. Teams know they’re not getting the Fleury of a decade ago but there’s a small set of circumstances where he might be the right fit if he’s willing to accept that role. At this point, it doesn’t seem as if that will be the case.
wsendall: Any chance Arizona would listen to offers on Clayton Keller? He has a full no-trade that kicks in next year and Arizona still seems like they’re several years away and has tons of organizational uncertainty. He’s already asked some questions about the team’s direction and the possibility of having a frustrated star player in a year or two with a full no-trade wouldn’t be ideal. It would take a king’s ransom, but his value may never be higher prior to his no-trade kicking in.
I don’t think the Coyotes are at a point where they can unilaterally not listen to offers for anyone but I doubt GM Bill Armstrong has any inclination about dealing Keller away. At 25, he’s the right age to be a ‘veteran’ in this rebuild and at $7.15MM through 2027-28, he’s at a pretty good price point for someone who’s near a point per game. You’re absolutely correct that it would need to be a king’s ransom for it to even be considered but those types of deals are usually easier to make in the summer than at this point of the season.
Keller may justifiably have some questions about the state of this long-term rebuild. However, I think the worst of it is over and it might very well be this offseason where the switch flips and Armstrong gets aggressive using his draft capital to try to add some core pieces, similar to the Sean Durzi acquisition last summer. If that happens and they’re in the thick of the Wild Card race next season – not an unrealistic goal to set given where they are – then I expect some of that frustration might dissipate as he sees the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. I expect Keller sticks around for the long haul and certainly through the next two weeks.
DevilShark: What do you think Saros would cost? Both trade value and his next contract. Which teams can feasibly afford both?
Goalies are so hard to figure out on the trade value front. I’d like to think Nashville could get a first-round pick and a quality young player for Saros since he has another year left at a team-friendly $5MM. They probably would have to take back a salary or two as well which could theoretically then be flipped if need be. That’s a lot for a netminder especially relative to some of the past deals for goalies but Saros is a top-end one so the return should be high.
Extension-wise, I’d have to think he’d look at Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension as a target. Granted, he doesn’t have quite the accolades that Hellebuyck does but he’s also a little younger so there is a bit less risk when you look at it that way. I don’t think he gets quite to an $8.5MM AAV but it could check in close to that unless next season resembles this one numbers-wise. In that scenario, the next deal would start with a seven.
As for who could afford both, that’s a tough one. I think New Jersey could although they’d need to move out Vitek Vanecek to make the money work for next year. Buffalo can afford both but if they’re confident that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi can be a winning tandem down the road, they don’t necessarily have the need to make a move like this. If Detroit isn’t sold on Sebastian Cossa’s upside, they’d be an under-the-radar team that could afford to make that type of trade and they have the cap space that they could carry Ville Husso as a very expensive backup for a year.
I’d like to put Ottawa on this list as they’ve been trying everything they can to put together a quality goalie tandem short of actually acquiring a proven netminder. In my mind, Saros could be a real difference-maker for them and they certainly have the prospect capital (or even some younger roster players) to make a move. But they can’t make the money work this season unless they move out Joonas Korpisalo and with his contract and performance, that’s not likely happening. Basically, there’s a reason the Devils have been the speculative fit for Saros as they might be the only realistic team that could add him now and have the ability to extend him later.