The Penguins are trending toward being a toss-up at the trade deadline at best after a 3-5-2 skid in their last 10 games. Despite boasting a +11 goal differential, the third-best in the Metropolitan Division, they have four teams to leapfrog to work their way into a Wild Card berth in the Eastern Conference without a significant number of games in hand.
General manager Kyle Dubas said Wednesday that this year’s deadline won’t be so much about buying or selling as it is about getting younger. How that approach influences their decision on trading pending UFA winger Jake Guentzel, who will be out for at least a week past the deadline with an upper-body injury, remains to be seen, Dubas said:
We have to take stock of where we are and be realistic about the fact that one of the issues we have is that we need to get younger. We have a lot of guys in their 30s signed – some of them are the best players in the history of the franchise… It’s tough with Jake [Guentzel] because he is an excellent player playing at an elite level… We need to find a way to have some of those veteran guys while continuing to get younger at the same time.
The iron is still hot surrounding Guentzel’s trade talk, and it doesn’t appear that his injury will impact Pittsburgh’s ability to field offers for him. Dubas confirmed that he has not asked any Penguin to waive his no-move or no-trade clause – Guentzel has a modified NTC that allows him to submit a 12-team no-trade list.
Youth being Dubas’ primary objective is no surprise. After taking over the reins of Pittsburgh’s front office last summer, he inherited an already-aging roster. The team’s most prominent offseason additions – reigning Norris winner Erik Karlsson and 2023 Stanley Cup champion Reilly Smith, pushed the average age further. More than half of their 18 skaters projected to dress in tonight’s game against the Canadiens are over 30.
Guentzel isn’t far behind at 29 – he’ll turn 30 right as the 2024-25 campaign begins. It’s understandable that while the Pens’ core (namely Sidney Crosby) would love to keep him around, there will be some internal hesitancy about signing him to a long-term extension with Karlsson, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang, Ryan Graves, and Tristan Jarry already locked up for three years or more.
Herein lies the Penguins’ true problem. If Pittsburgh doesn’t plan to leverage high-end draft picks to acquire younger win-now talent, as Dubas claims, none of their veterans besides Guentzel can fetch the type of youngster they’re looking for. Rust’s, Rakell’s, and Smith’s contracts are all either too pricey or too long to carry much trade value. The same goes for other aging depth players like 2023 free agent signing Noel Acciari, who’s disappointed in the first year of a three-year, $6MM deal.
Very little of their roster can be turned over in free agency this summer, either. Guentzel, Jeff Carter and Jansen Harkins are the only pending UFA forwards on the active roster, and depth defender Chad Ruhwedel is the only pending UFA on the blue line. Backup netminder Alex Nedeljkovic is destined for free agency, too, but it’s feasible they’ll attempt to re-sign him given his bounce-back campaign (.915 SV%, 2.67 GAA, 9-4-4). Getting out of Carter’s $3.125MM cap hit should offer some flexibility, but not enough for the more aggressive level of a retool that Pittsburgh is looking for.
As an aside on the Guentzel front, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet pointed out Wednesday night that if Pittsburgh makes Guentzel available to discuss extensions with trade suitors in the coming weeks, that takes the Oilers out of the running for his services. Edmonton doesn’t have the long-term cap space to offer Guentzel a long-term deal upwards of the $8MM per season he’ll receive, leaving them to pursue cheaper targets to find an upgrade on the wing for their Leon Draisaitl-anchored second line.
With only one season after this remaining on his $5MM AAV deal, Smith is the second-most likely candidate to be moved out behind Guentzel. He’s underwhelmed with 10 goals and 23 points in 47 games this year despite primarily playing alongside Evgeni Malkin. However, the Penguins would likely need to retain some salary to ship him to any contender looking to bolster their third line, where he probably fits in on a championship-bound team. They’re already using one of their three retention spots on Jeff Petry, which helped facilitate last summer’s Karlsson mega-deal.
Dubas’ press conference was babble, and not even well organized babble.
Dubas wants to get the Pens younger and yet he had to have Karlsson last summer, The Pens are clearly sellers at the deadline, And let the long rebuild begin.
What a mistake it was trading for Karlsson. Not only because of the contract but because the aging Pens core plus cap situation is screaming rebuild. Can’t believe there are Leafs fans that still believe Dubas is a genius.
Was worth a shot. They traded a bushel of bad, pay-to-move contracts for 1 big one.
Sadly he doesn’t seem to be a chemistry fit. They’ve lost so many 1-score games that a few more points from him could have been the difference in the season.
It was worth one more shot. They were facing a large rebuild either way due to Hextall’s sabotage.
Guentzel for a young NHLer, a 1st rounder+
Ned to LA or COL for a 2nd rounder
The key question is, will Sid resign here without Jake/can they find an adequate replacement (hopefully a shooter) for him to placate him?
If the answer is yes, then trading Jake is a no brainer. Love the guy, but we need to move away the cute pass offense that Jake thrives in and there is no reason to not move the top trade chip given the current situation.
Trade Jake for as much as you can and then find a team that has a top six wing that they want or need to move for cap purposes and either acquire them cheap or even get a sweetener on top of it to backfill Jake’s spot. If you can repeat that concept with anyone else, do it.
Listen on anyone who is not a HOF’er or whose number will be retired here one day.
Sid is not going anywhere. He’s their modern Lemieux. He was drafted a penguin and will retire a penguin and i sincerely doubt he wants anything else either.
Crosby has said numerous times, I’m not going anywhere.
I’m 99% sure that’s correct. Until his pen hits the paper, that 1% is too much for my taste, though.
If a bad deal for Jake is the price, well…OK. But, it would be better on almost every level to gather assets for Jake and take that opportunity to switch up the dynamics on Sid’s line.
I’ll say it again, we need a shooter. We no longer have a player on the roster who could be described as an elite shooter. It makes our offense too predictable.
“We have a lot of guys in their 30s signed – some of them are the best players in the history of the franchise… … We need to find a way to have some of those veteran guys while continuing to get younger at the same time.”
Interesting use of the word “some.” So who out of Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Rust/Rakell gets dangled?
87, 71, 58 and 65 (barring an offer out of left field for him) not going anywhere.
35 probably stays since it’s so hard to replace him.
Everyone else can be had, would be my guess.
I would make an extension offer to Nedeljkovic before trading him though. It’s a solid tandem with him and Jarry.
With their ages or years on those contracts, I don’t see how anyone would want them.
I think Marcus Pettersson is ideal trade bait. He’s still in his 20’s but under contract for one more year. He will be worth quite a bit on the market and only has an 8 team no-trade list. You normally wouldn’t want to do this but it is one of the few productive moves Dubas can make.
You trade any and all of them except 87 as long as an adequate deal is on the table. And by adequate I mean don’t retain any salary. Not only do the Pens need to get younger but they need cap space too.
Jake to St.louis for Buchnevich then Pens trade Buchnevich to Hurricanes for Javis and Carolinas 2nd in 2024..might be far out there but Pens get younger.
Jarvis isn’t going anywhere.