With the All-Star break in the rearview, the trade deadline looms large and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
When new Penguins GM Kyle Dubas traded for Erik Karlsson over the summer, it looked as if Pittsburgh was aiming to take another crack at a long playoff run. However, things haven’t gone according to plan as they find themselves outside the playoff picture at the moment although they do have enough games in hand to get right back into the mix. Accordingly, they’re a team whose decision on buying or selling could come right down to the last minute.
Record
26-21-8, 6th in the Metropolitan
Deadline Status
Light Buyer or Reluctant Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$4.5MM of LTIR space on deadline day, 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2024: PIT 2nd, PIT 4th, PIT 6th, NYR 7th, PIT 7th
2025: PIT 1st*, PIT 3rd, PIT 4th, PIT 5th, PIT 6th, PIT 7th
*-If Pittsburgh’s first-round pick this season lands in the top ten, the Penguins have the option to keep it and send San Jose an unprotected 2025 first-round selection as part of the Karlsson trade.
Trade Chips
If the Penguins become sellers, the top chip they have to play is winger Jake Guentzel who could very well be the top forward that moves in the next week and a half. What doesn’t help their cause, however, is that he’s currently on LTIR with an upper-body injury although he’s at least expected back soon after the minimum required absence of 10 games and 24 days. Guentzel sits second on the team in scoring with 52 points in 50 games so far and is the type of top-line addition that doesn’t become available too often at the deadline. On an expiring $6MM contract, the 29-year-old will be eyeing a significant raise on a long-term (or even max-term) agreement; wherever he is after the deadline passes will be the only team that can give him an eighth year directly without needing a sign-and-trade. Worth noting, it’s his LTIR placement that covers all of their current cap space at the moment; Pittsburgh will be quite tight to the Upper Limit when he’s activated.
[Related: Poll: Which Team Will Trade For Jake Guentzel?]
Whether they buy or sell, goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic could attract some interest. The 28-year-old has had a nice bounce-back year after spending a lot of last season in the minors and a 2.67 GAA and a .915 SV% along with a $1.5MM price tag could be appealing for teams looking to upgrade their second-string netminder. If the Penguins are comfortable with veteran Magnus Hellberg as their backup, that would give them a bit of extra spending room ($615K pro-rated).
Buyers are always looking for depth down the middle and while Pittsburgh doesn’t have any viable rental options (Jeff Carter likely isn’t moving with a full no-move clause and a $3.125MM price tag), Lars Eller and Noel Acciari are non-rental veterans who would attract some interest. Both moved at last year’s deadline and had some success with their new teams so they’ve demonstrated they can come in late and still contribute. Eller has one year left after this at $2.45MM while Acciari has two more at $2MM per, price tags that shouldn’t be overly prohibitive for some buyers.
If they wind up being light buyers, prospect Samuel Poulin is someone who stands out as a prospect teams might inquire about. The 23-year-old is wrapping up his entry-level deal this season and is having a good year although he’s currently out with an injury. Waiver-eligible next year, there should be some teams that want to take a look at him at the NHL level that might move someone who could help Pittsburgh’s playoff push.
Other Potential Trade Chips: F Joona Koppanen, D Chad Ruhwedel, D Dmitri Samorukov, D Ty Smith
Team Needs
1) Youth – This one comes directly from Dubas who noted earlier this week that he’d like to see this team get younger. Considering they have the oldest average age in the NHL at 31.3, he’s not wrong about that. With a core group that’s considerably older than the average, getting younger won’t be an easy task or a short-term one but they can start it here by moving out a couple of veterans if they sell and either give the likes of Poulin a chance or acquire a youngster in a trade and get them on the NHL roster. It won’t move the needle much but they need to start somewhere if they’re going to sell.
2) Secondary Scoring – Let’s flip the strategy and look at them as a buyer now in case they go on a bit of a run in the next few games and decide to try to add to their core. Going into today’s action, the Penguins ranked 27th in the league in goals scored. That has largely negated the value of being one of the stingiest defenses in the NHL; even with their scoring struggles, they have the third-best goal differential in the division. Getting Guentzel back would help but if they could find a way to add a top-six winger (or, failing that, a good third-line piece), that might be worth an extra win or two which might be the difference between making and missing the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What can you get for an aging dumpster fire?
You selling your collection of posts?
That’s priceless
Wake up little Susie! The Penguins are done and done!
There is a very narrow path to do two things at once here for the Pens, gather assets for the future while retooling instead of rebuilding.
Trade Jake, Pettersson, Smith, Eller and any of the depth pieces. IF a great offer comes in for Jarry (unlikely, but maybe LA) move him, too. If not, trade Ned. Gather assets.
Backfill their roster spots for the rest of this season by taking on bad EXPIRING contracts from teams that need to move money to fit in their deadline trades. Gather assets.
Then, keep all of those assets to start drafting the next wave while using their then ample cap space and free agency to fill out a competitive roster for Sid and Co. next year.
This is a great plan. I’m not sure if it was hextall or ownership who made such bad decisions the previous year’s, but I don’t understand how they thought an older, slower team, was going to win in the NHL? Especially after watching team speed factor in to all those first round losses.
They need to face facts that outside of Crosby, the older players aren’t producing the results they need to compete. They’ve hung on too long to some of these guys.
The pens and caps are in a really tough situation. They have a very old roster and the logical thing would be to tear down their roster and get a rebuild started. However, you can’t trade Sid/Malkin/Ove so the GMs have to still make a solid roster until their contracts are gone
The Penguins have 4 goals this season scored by players under 25 years old. That is nuts.
Also relatively predictable.
Looking at the Bruins current roster I could find 5 goals by guys under 25. Doesn’t seem to necessarily be a bad sign.
Check your math, they have 15.
Boston also has 31 goals by players who are exactly 25, (Pitt has 9) a 27 year old superstar with 38, (Pitt doesn’t have one of those) while Pittsburgh has 61 goals scored by players over the age of 35. (Boston has 30).
Boston has been able to do what Pittsburgh has failed miserably at over the past 10 years, identify, draft, and develop players that can step in and help the roster.
Start with Jake to Vegas:
Vegas just gives Roy, a 1st, and a prospect (Ivan Morozov), for Jake (1/2 retained salary)
If I’m Dubas I’d call Rutherford and offer Rust for Garland and their 2025 first.
Garland has been in and out of favor in VAN for a while and he’s on the 3rd line right now. Jimmy and Tocchet know what Rust can do in the playoffs and he’s a clear upgrade over Garland. Toss in Ruhwedel if they want a known commodity as a depth D man.
The Pens can give Garland a clean slate and a chance to rebuild value playing in the top 6 and a future trade chip while pocketing a first for next year. Garland is also off the books sooner than Rust.
The cap hits are nearly the same. Seems like a deal that could make sense for both sides.
Ned needs a very strong defense in front of him.
Honestly, they’re just screwed. They needed to start the rebuild two years ago. They certainly needed not to hand out so many buyout-proof NMCs to aging players, and they REALLY needed not to trade for Karlsson. Now their only useful draft capital is a player they really need to hang onto, the pick cupboard is threadbare, and they’d be in the hunt for a lottery pick if Sid was anything less than ageless and the goalies weren’t playing lights out. Sabres 2.0, this is where they’re headed.