Archives for October 2023

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Shane Pinto situation in Ottawa, how Patrick Kane could return to the Rangers, Mike Sullivan’s future in Pittsburgh, and much more.

Black Ace57: When do the Senators finally solve this Pinto contract issue? How much further into the season is it reasonable to drag this out?

Well, this certainly took an unexpected turn after this question was posted, didn’t it?  With Pinto now out for the first 41 games of the season due to his suspension, he’s not eligible to return until January 21st and it appears as if the usual December 1st signing deadline won’t apply here.  With Ottawa not wanting to carry dead cap money by having a suspended player on its roster, it stands to reason now that they won’t want to register the contract until as close to January 21st as possible.  At that point, it could very well be a minimum-salary deal as they’re no longer required to pay the value of his $874K qualifying offer; that requirement ended when the offer lapsed in July.

Honestly, I’m bewildered by this whole situation.  The suspension was out of nowhere but I’m also quite surprised that things got to this point with him being unsigned.  GM Pierre Dorion knew the cap bind he was putting himself in when he signed Vladimir Tarasenko; how was there not a plan to deal with that?  In the end, he’s going to get bailed out since Pinto’s midseason deal will be low enough that the cap implications should be minimal as it shouldn’t cost more (or much more) than the player whose spot he’d be taking on the roster.  But this was not well handled on their end.

For me, the big takeaway here is that the strategy of ‘deal with the cap later’ when trying to add a player, one that is seemingly popular with the fans, has gotten a whole lot more difficult to execute.  Accordingly, teams will need to keep that in the back of their mind next summer, even with the expected increase to the salary cap.

Bradley B: Based on the first few games, do you see any teams making an early trade?

I’d love to say Edmonton based on how poorly they’ve started but their cap situation makes that next to impossible.  They could swap out a minimum-salaried player for another one but that’s not going to move the needle very much.  But there are a few others that I think could be looking to do something.

Calgary has underwhelmed thus far.  Yes, they were a non-playoff team last season but expectations were that they’d be better after the offseason coaching change.  They’re also capped out but with some higher-salaried expiring deals, especially on the back end, they might have the chips to make a player-for-player swap to shake things up.  Daniel Vladar has been a speculative trade candidate but he hasn’t started the year well which can’t help his value.

Washington is another one to keep an eye on.  They’re in LTIR and Max Pacioretty and Joel Edmundson should be back at some point next month.  At that point, their cap situation will force their hand, barring further injury.  Anthony Mantha, on a big expiring deal himself, seems to be the speculative option to move and frankly, he’s someone that could benefit from a change of scenery.

Seattle is a wild card.  They’ve had some bad luck on the offensive end with a pretty low shooting percentage that is bound to improve but they’re now without Andre Burakovsky for a while.  They have a bit of money to play with (not a ton, mind you) so I could see them trying to add a piece and could use Chris Driedger’s expiring contract as an offset.

There’s a reason I’ve been talking about teams that should be looking to make a move sooner than later which isn’t exactly what you asked.  But because so many teams are capped out, I don’t see there being a whole lot of trade action in the near future.  That’s not a fun answer though so these are the teams I think would like to do something that I’ll be keeping an eye on.

gowings2008: This hasn’t been talked about much, but do you think it’s possible that Kyle Connor gets traded to Detroit? He’s from there (also lives there over the summer) and has multiple friends and former teammates on the team. Plus, there’s definitely a hole next to his buddies Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher on the second line. Seems like this makes too much sense not to happen at some point.

It makes a lot of sense for the Red Wings.  I’m not sold on the why for Winnipeg, however.

This is a team that just paid big bucks on long-term extensions for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.  They have an owner who told TSN’s Darren Dreger just this week that a rebuild is something he wants no part of.  With that in mind, why would they then turn around and move their top winger?  They’d have to get a significant long-term core piece in return that can also help them now and frankly, there isn’t a fit that makes a lot of sense.  Futures aren’t the currency the Jets will want to deal in at the moment.

Connor has two years left on his contract after this one.  If, in the final season of the deal (2025-26), Winnipeg finds themselves out of the mix near the trade deadline, then things might be a bit different.  If Connor was to express a willingness to sign an early extension if he was traded to Detroit, then that’s a scenario where this idea could be plausible and at that time, perhaps a futures-based return is more viable.  But even with that, Connor to Detroit is nowhere near the point of making too much sense not to happen eventually.  Very few players (if any) are in that type of situation where a move to a specific team is a lock at some point.

jchancel: “If” the New York Rangers were interested in re-signing Patrick Kane, who would they move out in order for that to happen?

There are two different scenarios for any hypothetical return for Kane with the Rangers (and I think the interest is legitimate).  The first is that he decides to ring-chase and decides to sign a team-friendly one-year deal around the $1MM range pro-rated.  That gives him the most options as most contending teams can fit that contract in.  In that scenario, they can basically just waive one of Jimmy Vesey or Tyler Pitlick and call it a day.  Kane, meanwhile, has a bounce-back year and turns that into a multi-year agreement next summer.  That’s the best-case scenario.

The other, obviously, is that Kane has enough of a market to command a multi-year deal at market rate.  I’m skeptical that the Rangers could free up enough money in that situation.  Barclay Goodrow and his $3.671MM cap hit is the obvious pick but with four years left, is there a viable market for him?  Even the teams that are open to taking on a contract might balk at the term.  Anything below that doesn’t move the needle in terms of making the money work and anyone making more almost certainly isn’t getting moved.

If the Rangers have any chance of bringing Kane back, they need him to be more focused on maximizing his 2024 offseason earning potential than his 2023 season possible money.  If that’s the case, I think they’ll have a real chance at re-signing him.

One More JAGR: When is Sullivan finally going to get the axe? Different season, same issues plague this Penguins team. Window is closing every year, now it’s cracked almost closed IMO. Most of the players who have played under his watch and since been released have done better on other teams. That tells me it’s a coaching issue. I realize there’s not many coaches available right now, but two years ago when they should’ve pulled the trigger there were. He’s lost the locker room, his system is ineffective. Midseason or end of season, does he get axed?

You don’t need me to tell you how highly Mike Sullivan is viewed at the ownership level.  There is certainly some symmetry between how he sees things and how ownership does.  That buys him a long leash to work with.

That said, if you’re looking for something to hang your hat on, Kyle Dubas just got handed the keys to the castle, so to speak.  A seven-year commitment for a GM is practically unheard of; that’s how much confidence and trust they have in him.  If Dubas goes to FSG and says that he wants to make a change, would they really say no to the executive who has six-plus seasons left on his contract?  That’d make for a tough situation for all parties involved.

I’m always leery of openly discussing the possibility of someone losing their job.  It’s part of the business but it’s not the most fun to speculate about.  But there is no long-term connection between Dubas and Sullivan.  If Dubas decides that Sullivan isn’t the right fit for this team, midseason or offseason, I think he will have the green light to pull the trigger.  It’s too early to predict if Pittsburgh’s season will be a struggle to the point where this move could be considered so I can’t sit here and state with any sort of confidence if I think it’ll actually happen.

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