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Archives for November 2021

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Calgary Flames

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Calgary Flames.

What are the Flames most thankful for?

A healthy start.

Injuries are a part of sports, and they’re going to happen for every team in the NHL at some point. But so far, the Flames have escaped relatively unscathed. Fifteen different players have suited up in at least 19 of the team’s 20 games, including basically every important member of the group.

In fact, since they started the year, Calgary has completed just two recalls from the minor leagues. Jacob Markstrom and Daniel Vladar have been the two dressed goaltenders in all 20 matches, meaning not only have they had a consistent effort, but also a consistent group in the locker room.

Who are the Flames most thankful for?

Darryl Sutter.

It’s hard to believe that a coach can make such a huge difference, but the Stanley Cup-winning bench boss appears to have secured a complete buy-in from his squad and a commitment to playing his low-event checking style. The Flames have allowed just 38 goals through 20 games and have the best goal differential in the league.

Not everything is because of Sutter, as there have been some very strong performances–perhaps even unexpected–from the defensive unit, but the veteran coach has the entire group moving in the right direction.

What would the Flames be even more thankful for?

Sean Monahan’s re-emergence.

The one concern some have when discussing the Flames, a team that has dominated the league so far, is the disappearance of Monahan’s offense. Through the first seven seasons of Monahan’s career, he had 194 goals, good for more than 29 per 82 games. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, he has 12 (just seven since Sutter took over).

His minutes have dropped to the lowest of his career and he has generated just 25 shots on goal through 20 games this season. For a player carrying a cap hit of $6.375MM, that’s simply not acceptable even if the overall Flames group is still churning through opponents. The idea of Monahan returning to some semblance of the 30-goal scorer he once was, without disrupting the defensive structure the Flames currently have would make them all the more imposing.

What should be on the Flames’ Holiday Wish List?

A Matthew Tkachuk extension.

Johnny Gaudreau has been outstanding this season, leading the team in scoring with 23 points in 20 games. He’s also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, so his future should be front and center when discussing any contract negotiations in Calgary. But it’s Tkachuk, who has been a lynchpin of Sutter’s structure and once again seems like the obvious choice as the team’s future captain that will really decide how much they could spend on Gaudreau.

Already the team’s highest-paid player, Tkachuk is about to hit restricted free agency for the last time, a year away from the open market. He won’t even turn 24 until next month, but is already in the midst of his sixth season in the league, meaning any extension would buy out almost exclusively UFA seasons. It will be a massive contract if Tkachuk does agree to something long-term with the Flames, a number that would limit them elsewhere or cause other cost-cutting measures (perhaps like a bottom-six center that makes more than $6MM next season).

There’s nothing that would be more important for the Flames this winter, so they can also go into the trade deadline with some sort of cap certainty moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Doug Wilson Taking Temporary Medical Leave

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The San Jose Sharks have announced that general manager Doug Wilson is taking a temporary medical leave from his day-to-day duties with the club. In the interim, assistant general manager Joe Will will be handling the daily operations.

Wilson, 64, was recently inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame for his outstanding contributions to the game as both a player and executive. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic tweets that Wilson has been dealing with a persistent cough since September, but this absence is not believed to be COVID-related.

Across the hockey landscape, fans, media, and players are extending their support for the Sharks GM. The staff at PHR is no different, and hope to see him back to work soon.

Jonathan Marchessault, Brett Howden Exit COVID Protocol

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Now it is clear why the Vegas Golden Knights sent three young forwards back to the AHL this morning. Jonathan Marchessault and Brett Howden, who had been in the league’s COVID protocol, have joined the regular group at practice today according to David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Marchessault spent ten days in the protocol, meaning he hasn’t played since November 13. That was a huge blow to the Golden Knights attack, given the veteran forward was off to a great start with nine goals and 13 points in 15 games. When combined with some of the other injuries the team was dealing with, it was nearly the entire top two lines out at once.

Howden meanwhile never did test positive but had been held out as a close contact the last few days. The 23-year-old last played on November 20 against Columbus. He’s obviously a much less important player for Vegas, averaging just 9:45 of ice time.

Incredibly, even with massive absences, the Golden Knights have fought their way back to a Pacific Division playoff spot with a 7-3 run in their last ten. They’re not just five points behind the Calgary Flames for first place and are getting closer to full health. With William Karlsson, Alec Martinez, Nolan Patrick, and Jack Eichel still out, they’re not there yet, but Marchessault’s return will certainly be a welcome one.

Adam Gaudette Placed On Waivers

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The Chicago Blackhawks have placed Adam Gaudette on waivers today, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

Gaudette, 25, hasn’t played in a few weeks, last suiting up for the Blackhawks on November 9. He played just over five minutes in that game and then has been made a healthy scratch several times by interim head coach Derek King.

Now, with Tyler Johnson nearing a return to action, the team needed to clear a roster spot and it’s Gaudette that will be risked to the rest of the league. It’s an interesting decision for the Blackhawks, who have several waiver-exempt players they could have sent down instead–namely Reese Johnson and Mike Hardman–but they’ve obviously decided that Gaudette is the one that should go.

There’s certainly a chance he could be claimed, though a cap hit just barely under $1MM should make some cap-strapped teams hesitate. Gaudette hasn’t been anywhere near the player he was during the 2019-20 season, when he recorded 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games. Since then, he has just 13 points in 48 games, split between the Vancouver Canucks and Blackhawks.

A Hobey Baker winner, there’s obvious offensive upside in Gaudette, but his overall play hasn’t been good enough to secure a regular spot in Chicago’s top-six. If he clears, he will likely be sent back to the minor leagues.

Johan Larsson, Andrew Ladd Exit COVID Protocol

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The Arizona Coyotes will have two reinforcements at practice today, as Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports reports that Johan Larsson and Andrew Ladd are out of the COVID protocol. Ladd actually came out of the protocol on Wednesday, Morgan notes, but he didn’t play for the team that night.

After a short winning streak, the Coyotes were once again outclassed in that game by the Edmonton Oilers, allowing 43 shots and five goals against. There are going to be a lot of nights like those even after Larsson and Ladd get back into the lineup.

Neither one is a real impact player at the NHL level at this point, though Larsson should be an interesting trade candidate later this season after carrying such a heavy load for the Coyotes. The 29-year-old forward is on an expiring, $1.4MM contract and has averaged nearly 18 minutes of ice time through his first 15 games. He has failed to score during that time, but was never known for his offensive abilities anyway. As a depth center that can be deployed heavily in the defensive zone, the Coyotes may be able to secure another mid-round draft pick or prospect.

Ladd meanwhile is likely just happy to be back in the NHL after a long absence, playing out the rest of that seven-year, $38.5MM deal he signed in 2016. With one more year on the deal after this one, it would be a hard sale at the deadline for the Coyotes even if the veteran forward showed he can still contribute at the highest level.

Poll: Which Thanksgiving Playoff Teams Will Fall Short In 2021-22?

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American Thanksgiving arrived on Thursday and with it a shadow that looms large in the NHL. As teams return to the ice on Friday, they have the specter of an unavoidable trend to contend with. Over the past eight years, the Thanksgiving standings have been over 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting at least 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, at about the 30% mark, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

Last year, adjusting for “Thanksgiving” being a games played average given the league’s delayed start, it was even more predictive. 14 of 16 teams in a playoff position on February 21 winded up making the postseason, with only the Philadelphia Flyers and Dallas Stars missing out.

As much as teams outside the playoff picture on Thanksgiving fear missing out when the pattern has been so unrelenting, those clubs can at least be fueled by the desire to buck the trend. The greater concern is for those teams currently in postseason position – and not wanting to be one of the select few who blow their playoff spot by years end.

Below are the current league standings (by points percentage):

Eastern Conference

A1. Florida Panthers (.816)
M1. Carolina Hurricanes (.806)
M2. Washington Capitals (.725)
M3. New York Rangers (.711)
A2. Tampa Bay Lightning (.694)
A3. Toronto Maple Leafs (.690)
W1. Columbus Blue Jackets (.647)
W2. Boston Bruins (.625)
New Jersey Devils (.588)
Pittsburgh Penguins (.579)
Philadelphia Flyers (.556)
Detroit Red Wings (.500)
Buffalo Sabres (.421)
New York Islanders (.375)
Montreal Canadiens (.286)
Ottawa Senators (.265)

Western Conference

P1. Edmonton Oilers (.737)
C1. Minnesota Wild (.658)
P2. Calgary Flames (.725)
C2. Colorado Avalanche (.656)
P3. Vegas Golden Knights (.600)
C3. St. Louis Blues (.579)
W1. Winnipeg Jets (.579)
W2. Anaheim Ducks (.575)
Nashville Predators (.553)
San Jose Sharks (.553)
Dallas Stars (.529)
Los Angeles Kings (.500)
Chicago Blackhawks (.368)
Vancouver Canucks (.350)
Seattle Kraken (.342)
Arizona Coyotes (.250)

Which playoff teams do you think will be the exception to the rule that is the NHL’s Thanksgiving trend, losing their spot over the remaining 70% of the season? Comment with which teams outside the top eight in each conference could steal a spot.

[mobile users vote here]

 

AHL Shuffle: 11/26/21

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After a day off across the league on Thursday, the NHL is back on the ice for a whopping 13 games today beginning at 2pm CT through 9:30pm CT, with games starting almost every hour. With a full day of hockey often come a full day of roster tweaks as well. Keep up with all the recalls and reassignments right here:

Atlantic Division

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have recalled Sean Day from the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, potentially affording the gifted defenseman his first NHL opportunity. At one time considered such a special prospect that he was given “exceptional player status” to join the OHL a year early, Day has somewhat underwhelmed ever since. A third-round draft pick with pedestrian numbers in the junior and minor league ranks, it seemed like the OHL missed the mark on labeling Day as an elite talent. However, with ten points in 15 games for the Crunch this season, Day is finally starting to look the part. Could the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs have a late bloomer on their hands?
  • The Buffalo Sabres have recalled Brett Murray from the AHL, moving Drake Caggiula to injured reserve to make room. Murray, a fourth-round pick from 2016, has scored six goals in nine minor league games this season.

Metropolitan Division

  • Though an inspiring story of perseverance from an under-recruited high school prospect from Cape Cod to an injury-prone NCAA graduate transfer to an ECHL contract then an AHL contract and now an NHL contract, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Max Willman belongs in the NHL just yet. The hard-working forward has been returned to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms following a fruitless first NHL recall, the Philadelphia Flyers announced. In his place, the team has recalled forward Connor Bunnaman. 

Central Division

Pacific Division

 

Canada Preparing Spengler Cup Coaching Staff

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11/26: TSN’s Darren Dreger has confirmed much of Friedman’s initial report this morning, reporting that Julien will indeed be the bench boss of the Spengler Cup team with Boudreau as his assistant and notes that this staff will in fact coach in the Olympics if the NHL pulls out. However, Dreger didn’t stop there. He reports that Julien’s second assistant will be Scott Walker and the architect of the roster as GM will be a former Canadian Olympian in Shane Doan. 

11/25: The NHL’s participation in the 2022 Beijing Olympics is still not set in stone, with a January opt-out date still upcoming. Should the league feel as though there have been too many COVID-related postponements to afford a three-week break, they could pull the plug on the whole thing and reorganize their schedule without the international competition. If that were the case, suddenly the Canadian and U.S. teams would be without a coaching staff as well, because right now it is NHL bench bosses set to lead the groups.

In Canada’s case, it’s Jon Cooper, head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning that will be in control of the men’s team, alongside assistants Bruce Cassidy (Boston Bruins), Pete DeBoer (Vegas Golden Knights), and Barry Trotz (New York Islanders). If the NHL doesn’t go, neither do they, meaning a new staff would have to be brought in.

They’re already preparing for that instance, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet tweets. Claude Julien is expected to coach the Canadian contingent at the Spengler Cup in late December, and would take over the Olympic squad if the NHL doesn’t participate. He’s expected to be joined by Bruce Boudreau as an assistant coach, though Friedman does note that this is assuming neither is hired elsewhere in the meantime.

The Spengler Cup roster would likely have a large amount of crossover with the Olympic unit if the NHL chooses not to go, though some AHL, junior or college players would also likely be involved. With coaches like Julien and Boudreau, they would also have NHL-level coaching even if the league failed to participate.

Panthers Sign Ryan Lomberg To Two-Year Extension

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11/26: The Panthers have officially announced the new deal, confirming a two-year pact with Lomberg. In the team’s release, GM Bill Zito stated his appreciation for the forward’s hard-working brand of hockey: “Ryan has brought physicality and contagious energy to our lineup. We are excited to announce that he will continue to be a part of the Panthers organization for years to come.”

11/25: Ryan Lomberg has been a capable depth player in his two seasons with the Panthers and the team clearly likes what he has provided as CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that they’ve signed the winger to a two-year contract extension.  The deal is worth $775K in 2022-23 and $825K in 2023-24 for an AAV of $800K, a small raise on his current $725K cap hit.

Lomberg signed with Florida as an unrestricted free agent back in 2020 after spending the first five years of his professional career with Calgary.  He didn’t see any NHL action in his final year in the Flames organization which allowed the 27-year-old to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent.

Since joining the Panthers, Lomberg has become more of a regular player, suiting up in 34 games last season where he tallied two goals and two assists in 34 games along with a team-high 67 penalty minutes.  This season, he has played in ten contests, picking up a goal and two assists while logging 10:38 per game, a career-high in ATOI.

With the signing, Florida now has just under $78MM in commitments for next season to just 16 players, per CapFriendly.  With the cap only expected to go up by $1MM next season to $82.5MM, Florida is going to be facing a situation where they will need to round out their roster with minimum-salary players and will likely need to move someone out to free up enough money to re-sign some of their own pending free agents.  Accordingly, getting a regular player in Lomberg locked up for just under the minimum is a nice piece of business for GM Bill Zito.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $85,575,985 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jake Oettinger (one year, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (two years, $842.5K)
F Jason Robertson (one year, $795K)

Potential Bonuses
Oettinger: $537.5K
Peterson: $82.5K
Robertson: $82.5K
Total: $702.5K

Peterson spending this much time on the roster early on in his first season in North America is a bit of a surprise but the fact he has done well is certainly encouraging for the Stars.  With it being his first year, it’s hard to project where his next deal will be but he’s well on his way to hitting some of his games played bonus money.  Robertson finished second on the Stars in scoring last season and is hovering near the point per game mark again this year.  Limited action in his rookie campaign hurts his bargaining power a little but as long as he can play at a similar level to last year, he should have enough of a case to argue for a long-term contract with an AAV that could check in close to the one Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov recently received (eight years, $7.75MM cap hit).

Oettinger is listed here more to talk about his next contract than anything else as he’s basically the third-string option this season unless they move two veteran goalies out.  He could be a regular again in 2022-23 and while he’s someone that Dallas would be wise to try to get a multi-year agreement in place with, there’s little reason for the youngster to agree to that.  A one-year agreement that gets him to arbitration eligibility in the 2023 summer would be his best course of action even if it means his salary won’t jump up too much for next season.  Meanwhile, as he has ‘A’ bonuses, it’s unlikely he’ll hit them this season unless he’s up full-time before too much longer which will help lessen their carryover penalty.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
G Braden Holtby ($2MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)

Pavelski’s first season was quiet aside from a strong playoff run which carried over into last year when he led the Stars in scoring.  He’s still producing like a top-six forward at a minimum (if not a top-liner last season) but he’s also going to be 38 when 2022-23 gets underway.  A one-year deal seems likely which opens up the potential for bonuses as well.  Even so, he’s going to be heading for at least a small dip although something in the $4MM-$5MM range is certainly possible.  Radulov is the other big-ticket deal coming off the books.  He’s coming off an injury-plagued season and is off to a particularly tough start this year.  He’ll be 36 next season and there will be questions as to whether or not he can still play in the top six of an NHL team.  As someone that has opted to take bigger money overseas once before, it’s definitely a possibility here if his AAV dips into the $3MM range.

Gurianov got this bridge coming off an improbable 20-goal season but still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a consistent top-six forward.  He’s young enough (24) to get a longer leash but his qualifying offer jumps to $2.9MM next summer.  With the start to the season he’s having, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that in theory but with arbitration eligibility, he should be able to use that to push past the $3MM mark.  Raffl has been more of a fourth liner in recent years and after going through the market this past summer, it’s safe to say his value next summer should check in fairly close to his current $1.1MM price tag.

If Dallas is going to reallocate some of Pavelski or Radulov’s money, Klingberg could very well be the beneficiary.  A report last month pegged his asking price at over $60MM over eight years, an AAV of $7.5MM or higher.  That’s a significant jump over his current price tag although he has the offensive production to try to shoot that high.  The Stars may not prefer to go eight years but if it keeps the cap hit lower, they’ll seriously have to consider it.  Sekera hasn’t been an impact blueliner for a few years now and has been more of a depth player in Dallas.  He’ll have to take a pay cut to get another NHL deal and could be a candidate for an incentive-based deal with a guarantee not far off the minimum with a few hundred thousand in games placed bonuses.

Holtby landing with Dallas was one of the more puzzling goalie moves this summer although they got him at a heavily discounted rate compared to a few years ago.  Of course, there’s a reason for that since he was bought out by Vancouver.  He’s off to a decent start this season which could help him restore some value and get closer to that higher tier of backups in the high-$3MM range.

Two Years Remaining

G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05MM, UFA)

Hintz has largely flown under the radar in Dallas with several high-priced veterans in front of him but he was a top-liner for them last season.  His output has dipped early on this year but there’s still time to turn that around.  Their cap situation in 2020 forced a bridge deal but Hintz will have the hammer in the next negotiation with arbitration rights, a $3.79MM qualifier (120% of the AAV), and being a year away from UFA eligibility.  A long-term deal in the $6MM range is certainly doable for him.  Glendening is a role player at this point but as one of the best faceoff players in the league most years, it allows him to get more of a premium compared to other fourth liners.  As long as he keeps winning draws at a clip better than most, there’s no reason to think he can’t get another deal around this price tag in 2023.  Kiviranta was at his best in the 2020 bubble but has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player yet and has been limited when he is in the lineup.  If that continues, he’ll be hard-pressed to get this on the open market, let alone more.

Hanley has been on a minimum contract for the last several seasons, serving as low-cost depth.  That’s a roster spot they’ll want to keep at that price point so he could stick around for a little while yet.

Bishop missed all of last season and all of this year so far which has him on LTIR.  However, he has been skating regularly for a while now but they can’t afford to activate him without clearing cap space first so that’s something to watch for from Dallas in the near future.  With how much time he has missed and the fact his next deal will be his age-37 season, it’s not a guarantee Bishop gets another contract and if he does, a one-year, incentive-based deal with a lower salary is all he could hope for.  Khudobin’s numbers dipped last season and have gotten considerably worse so far in 2021-22.  Like Bishop, his next contract will be his age-37 season so he’ll probably be eyeing a one-year deal at best and if his numbers continue to be this poor, it’ll be at a much lower cost than his current one.

Three Years Remaining

D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)

Hakanpaa got himself on the map last season as he played in 57 games between Anaheim and Carolina (notable in itself considering it was a 56-game campaign) while providing plenty of physicality from the back end.  That resulted in a fairly strong market for him in free agency, allowing him to get three years after only his first NHL season at the age of 29.  He’ll need to move into a top-four role to have an opportunity for a bigger deal next time around.

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