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Looking Ahead To Andrew Copp’s Free Agency

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The New York Rangers were active players at this year’s trade deadline, picking up several pieces, most notable among them, forward Andrew Copp, who the Rangers acquired from the Winnipeg Jets. The 27-year-old Copp is enjoying a fantastic breakout season, on the cusp of hitting unrestricted free agency this July, and will obviously look to capitalize on his excellent timing.

Copp has made work of continuously getting better throughout his career, culminating in what was a, to-date, career-best 39 points in 55 games in the shortened 56-game 2020-21 season. This season, Copp was on nearly the same trajectory, with 35 points in 56 games prior to the trade. However, since being traded to the Rangers, Copp has reached another level, putting up 18 points in 15 games, eight of those points from goals, and capped off by a hat-trick against the New York Islanders this past Thursday.

At 28 years of age on July 13th, the first day of NHL free agency, Copp will still be in the prime of his career, and any contract within range of expectation should see him still as an effective player through its entirety. Some factors to consider, when looking at what the gritty forward can sign for would be his production relative to offense around the NHL (i.e., increased offense league-wide), as well as his general role as a middle-six grinder who can provide offense and how he might age in that role.

Financially, Copp is making $3.64MM this season, the result of an agreement ahead of, and in lieu of, an arbitration hearing. One would certainly expect that he will command a fairly significant raise over that figure. After giving up significant assets to acquire Copp, and with his performance thus far, the Rangers would be expected to take a run at re-signing Copp, but with significant raises for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox taking effect next season, the expiration of Kaapo Kakko’s ELC, and Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Tyler Motte, and Justin Braun all hitting unrestricted free agency too, the organization will need to be careful and will have to make some tough decisions.

Now, we turn to a few comparable players with contracts in the vicinity of what Copp could push for in free agency this summer. These include a very similar player in a very similar situation, Jean-Gabriel Pageau of the New York Islanders, and a bit of a “high-hopes” contract on a player who is arguably a slightly better version of Copp: T.J. Oshie of the Washington Capitals.

T.J. Oshie: Eight-Years, $46MM, $5.75MM AAV

As mentioned, the Oshie contract is most likely going to be a real reach for Copp, however, a contract similar to this, at least in terms of AAV, may not be too far-fetched. This season, Copp has 53 points in 71 games following up a strong 39 in 55 last season. Due to COVID shortening Copp’s 2019-20 and 2020-21, and uncertainty surrounding a lower-body injury that is currently sidelining him, we’ll compare the players on a point-per-game basis.

This season, Copp’s production works out to 0.75 points-per-game, a marginal improvement over his 0.71 mark last year. Oshie signed his contract with Washington after the 2016-17 season, which saw him coming off a strong 56 points in 68 games, preceded by 51 points in 80 games in 2015-16. For a fair comparison, Oshie’s 2015-16 came in at 0.64 points-per-game, improving to 0.82 points-per-game the next season going into free agency.

Besides a higher jump in point-per-game going into free agency, what Oshie had that Copp does not, is a similar track record. Before the 2015-16 season, Oshie had already hit 54, 55, and 60 points in three of the previous four seasons, as well as 20 points in 30 games in 2012-13. In the three seasons prior to 2020-21, Copp averaged just 26.3 points. Though track record sets Oshie ahead of Copp, this contract is nearly five years old, and while the NHL is currently in a flat-cap state, the value of players has risen, meaning that Copp could push the $5.75MM AAV Oshie received. Eight years could be where Copp struggles more, considering the difference in the two players’ styles, one could argue that Oshie would be expected to age better as a smooth-skating, top-six, two-way point-producer over Copp’s middle-six grinder with offensive upside.

It should be noted also, that teams and players could look to trade term in exchange for AAV, much the same as the Rangers did when they signed Barclay Goodrow to a six-year, $21.85MM contract or when the Islanders signed Casey Cizikas to a six-year, $15MM contract, both coming just this past offseason.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Six-Years, $30MM, $5MM AAV

There may not be a better comparable player for Copp than Pageau. Both are similar players, both enjoyed breakout seasons heading into free agency, and both were dealt for a high price at the trade deadline to be impact players on teams that had their eyes set on a Stanley Cup. Pageau was dealt by the Ottawa Senators to the New York Islanders at the trade deadline in February of 2020, but unlike Copp, he would immediately ink an extension with his new club.

Like Copp, Pageau had truly broken out ahead of his new contract, with 24 goals and 16 assists in 60 games prior to signing, an average of 0.67 points per game. Pageau was injured the season prior, posting 12 points in 39 games, just a 0.31 points-per-game average, far short of his 2019-20 and his career best 43 points in 2015-16.

You wouldn’t be blamed for thinking Pageau has been better than Copp over their careers. While Copp has played in the postseason, Pageau has had a flair for the dramatic in a lengthy postseason career. But, it appears, Copp might be in a better position than Pageau was when he signed (keep in mind, two of Pageau’s deep postseason runs had not yet happened at that point). That said, if Copp is at least comparable and in the same position Pageau is heading towards his own contract, if not better, then six-years at $5MM per season would not only be attainable for Copp, but perhaps a jumping off point in negotiations.

Of course, it remains to be seen what exactly Copp will be able to sign for when his contract expires this summer, and right now his and his team’s focus is to get him healthy in time for the playoffs, and to chase a Stanley Cup. But, as it seems, Copp might look to sign somewhere between Pageau and Oshie–an excellent payday for a player well-regarded for his grit, but far from a superstar.

Torey Krug Out With Upper-Body Injury

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The St. Louis Blues announced that defenseman Torey Krug will miss tonight’s game with an upper-body injury. Krug played in the Blues’ last game on Tuesday against the Boston Bruins, playing 17:53 in an overtime loss. It’s unclear how much time Krug will miss after tonight, if any, but for now the Blues will be without the veteran defenseman as they take on the Sharks in San Jose.

This is not Krug’s first battle with injury this season, as he has missed 15 games thus far. While the Blues have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently battling with the Minnesota Wild for second place in the Central Division, essentially battling for home-ice advantage in a first round series. Going without Krug, a reliable defender who has 40 points in 62 games this season, will not do St. Louis any favors in their battle in the standings, but it’s certainly better to have him out now rather than come playoffs.

Replacing him in the lineup tonight is defenseman Calle Rosen. The 28-year-old Rosen has played in just 14 games at the NHL level this year, however he’s been effective when he’s in the lineup, tallying two goals and five assists from the blueline. Rosen has played more regularly for the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL this season though, having four goals and 24 assists in 40 games at that level.

Snapshots: Forsberg, NHLPA, PWHPA

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This evening on Hockey Night in Canada’s 32 Thoughts segment, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman discussed an update on Filip Forsberg’s contract extension talks, noting that Forsberg’s agent, J.P. Barry and Nashville Predators’ GM David Poille recently met face-to-face for the first time in a while. Friedman says that while it is difficult to gauge any progress on the talks, as nothing was made public from these discussions, the development is significant and represents the two sides continuing to talk.

Forsberg is an impending UFA, who the Predators chose not to trade at this year’s trade deadline, despite not having an extension in place with the forward. Part of the reason to hang onto Forsberg would be for Nashville to use him themselves in another playoff run, but also perhaps their confidence that they could get a deal done with Forsberg before he hits free agency. One advantage Nashville will have over other teams, besides an extended negotiating period and familiarity, is the ability to give Forsberg an eight-year contract as opposed to seven, something he will almost assuredly get.

  • Also from Friedman is that a succession plan for NHLPA Director Donald Fehr could be in place by this summer, though Friedman adds he is not entirely sure what that will look like. Fehr has served in this role since 2010, after a storied career with the MLBPA, however his position has come under fire recently, especially with the release of the results of an independent investigation into the NHLPA and Fehr’s handling of the accusations against the Chicago Blackhawks and Brad Aldrich. The 73-year-old Fehr had already been rumored to be nearing retirement, so to see a succession plan being rumored now is not surprising, even with the investigation news.
  • With the PWHPA planning to go their own way in forming a league without the PHF, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek shares some details of what the new league will look like. First and foremost, Marek says that the league will have a new name, though what that will be is not yet known. The league’s first season will take place from January through April of 2023 and consists of 32 games per team, including six teams spread between the US and Canada. Each team is expected to have 23 players, with the minimum salary being $35K and the average salary being $55K, as well as benefits for all players. Without too many more pertinent details, it’s hard to forecast what this league and season will truly look like and what fans can expect, however having these basic plans in place is a promising step forward after talks between the PWHPA and PHF have not progressed to anything of note thus far.

Ottawa Senators Place Colin White In COVID-19 Protocol

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The Ottawa Senators announced that forward Colin White was placed in the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol ahead of tonight’s game at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Defenseman Victor Mete will take his place in the lineup for tonight. It’s not immediately clear whether White tested positive or if he is in protocol for other related reasons.

The NHL has seen a vastly decreased number of players in COVID protocol in the past couple of months due to several factors, however White’s absence is a reminder that these protocols are still in place and can still creep up on teams when they don’t necessarily expect it. As of right now, White appears to be the only player affected for Ottawa, with no further announcements on other players or staff thus far.

White has been somewhat of a disappointment this year for Ottawa, with just 10 points in 24 games. The forward spent the majority of the season on IR, making his season debut on February 26th. Though his numbers are not too far off from his career averages, White signed a lucrative six-year, $28.5MM contract, carrying an AAV of $4.75MM, prior to the 2019-20 season. Despite the contract, White is still waiting for the true breakout season that Ottawa has seen from the likes of Joshua Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson.

Snapshots: Nash, Predators, Deslauriers

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The oft-overlooked IIHF Men’s World Championship is drawing near, and Hockey Canada has added another former player and budding management star to the fold. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the organization has added Rick Nash as an assistant general manager, supplementing Shane Doan. Nash has three seasons of managerial experience now, all in his former stomping grounds in Columbus. After serving two seasons (2019-20 and 2020-21) as a special assistant to the general manager, he was named director of player development this season in addition to having his number retired by the organization. The tournament begins on May 13th.

Elsewhere from the NHL tonight:

  • Injury trouble continues for the Nashville Predators as they try to solidify a Wild Card spot. Defenseman Mark Borowiecki is again marred by injury, with an upper-body ailment holding him out tonight, as well as Matt Luff, who sits with a non-COVID illness. Both have been used sparingly when in the lineup this season, but Borowiecki is still a valuable role player who’s still managed to get into 47 games this year despite injury. Luff, after tearing up the AHL with 31 points in 30 games, has six points in 21 games with the Predators.
  • Instant fan-favorite Nicolas Deslauriers returns to the Minnesota Wild tonight after missing the team’s last two games. Deslauriers is averaging a penalty minute per game during his 10-game tenure in Minnesota, and he’s contributed two goals as well. The 31-year-old has looked like a natural fit in the team’s bottom-six forward group, adding a physical edge to an already gritty group of forwards.

Pittsburgh Penguins To Officially Meet Boston In 2023 Winter Classic

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Official now after being reported earlier today by ESPN’s Kevin Weekes, the 2023 Winter Classic, previously announced to feature the Boston Bruins at Fenway Park, will feature the Bruins and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Of note, this will be the third Winter Classic not played on New Year’s Day, due to January 1st falling on a Sunday. The game will be played on Monday, January 2nd.

This is Pittsburgh’s third Winter Classic and Boston’s fourth. The Penguins have a 1-1 Winter Classic record, while the Bruins have gone 2-1. It’s also the first time the NHL has re-used a venue for the Winter Classic, replicating the 2010 edition in which Boston defeated the Philadelphia Flyers by a score of 2-1 in overtime.

While it’s sure to be a good hockey game due to the quality of the teams, the selection is drawing ire from many NHL fans due to its repetitiveness. Only 14 of the league’s 32 teams have competed in a Winter Classic, with nine teams (Chicago, Boston, NY Rangers, Washington, St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Philadelphia) appearing more than once. That’s all despite the 2023 game already being the 14th edition of the outdoor game.

Evgeni Malkin Suspended Four Games

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As many were expecting, the NHL Department of Player Safety has announced a suspension of Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evgeni Malkin, this time for four games, for his cross-check of Nashville Predators’ defenseman Mark Borowiecki on Sunday. As the accompanying video explains:

“It is important to note that this is not a case where Malkin raises his stick defensively or reflexively to protect himself. We find Malkin’s cross-check to be retaliatory and aggressive. While we heard Malkin’s assertion that Borowiecki initiated the scrum by restraining him and confronting him, neither action merited Malkin’s response. Players are not excused from violating league rules because of the actions of their opponents. There is simply no justification for a player to forcefully and intentionally cross-check another player in this manner.”

Malkin’s suspension could seem excessive to some, but this is not his first suspension, having been suspended once before, and fined three other times in his career. It is also worth noting that Malkin was assessed a four minute double-minor on the play. In terms of salary-forfeited, the suspension will cost Malkin approximately $190K.

Losing Malkin for four games now is a tough loss for Pittsburgh, who is in no threat of losing a playoff position, but is fighting for seeding, which can have enormous ramifications in their own right. The Penguins currently sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 94 points, four ahead of the Washington Capitals who hold the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference (the Boston Bruins have the first Wild Card with 95 points). The star forward is still producing at a high-level at 35 years of age, despite dealing with injury this season, recording 17 goals and 20 assists in 37 games this year.

 

Latest On San Jose Sharks GM Search

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After long-time General Manager Doug Wilson stepped aside from his position for health reasons, the San Jose Sharks will head into rare territory for their organization: searching for a General Manager. The team has had just two GM’s in the last 30 years, between Dean Lombardi and since 2003, Wilson.

On tonight’s 32 Thoughts segment of Hockey Night In Canada, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek provided some insight and speculation on what the Sharks’ GM search could look like, and who could be in consideration for the position. In terms of the type of candidate they might want, Friedman believes that the organization would like a GM who is willing to be visible, who will talk to the media and fans, and who can help to expand their market.

Friedman also notes that the team might be interested in a candidate who has no history with the organization, or who might even be somewhat off the radar, as far as expected candidates go. Lastly, Friedman adds that the Sharks may want to not only hire a GM, but expand their front office altogether, increasing the amount of thoughts and ideas within the organization from what they previously had.

While it is curious to potentially change the dynamic of a front office after an incredibly long and successful run by one GM, the Sharks have struggled amid what appears to be a rebuild these past few seasons, and a refreshed change of thought and opinion could help the organization transition to a new group on the ice. As mentioned by Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast earlier, the Sharks organization is not one to be keen on a true rebuild, so any new front office with refreshed perspective would still have to see eye to eye with ownership on the short and long-term plans for the team.

With the talk of perhaps bringing in someone a bit unknown, Jeff Marek gave a name for a possible suitor: Arizona Coyotes’ Assistant General Manager John Ferguson. Ferguson is a well-known name around the NHL and with the Sharks, having interviewed for their GM role already in 2003, when the job was given to Wilson. Since then, Ferguson has bounced around and was notably a scout for the Sharks under Wilson, who was pivotal in drafting a cornerstone player in Tomas Hertl, says Marek. Most recently, Ferguson interviewed for the open Anaheim Ducks GM position after previous Ducks GM Bob Murray resigned. However, that job went to Pat Verbeek.

Time will certainly tell how the Sharks navigate their search, and as Friedman also added, the team is comfortable taking their time in evaluating their options and making a decision. A change of pace from the front office they have had in place for nearly two decades could be what is needed to turn the team back into the perennial Stanley Cup contenders they were just a few years ago. However, moving on from a front office, and a General Manager, who have brought the team so much success will be a difficult task, and replacing a figure like Doug Wilson will be that much harder.

Injury Notes: Girard, Coyotes, Oilers, Walman

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According to The Athletic’s Peter Baugh, the Colorado Avalanche will have defenseman Samuel Girard back in the lineup tonight, the first time since March 8th (link). Girard’s return comes at a good time for Colorado, who were already missing Ryan Murray on the left side before seeing Devon Toews go down last night after blocking a shot against the Winnipeg Jets. Though Toews is expected to be okay after the shot block, it’s unclear if he will have to miss any time.

Getting the 23-year-old Girard back in the lineup also helps to lengthen an already stellar Avalanche defense group as the team looks to get into a groove heading into the playoffs. Colorado is currently first in the entire NHL with 108 points, two ahead of the Florida Panthers, and 13 points ahead of the Calgary Flames for the top spot in the west. After a career year in 2020-21 with 32 points in 48 games, Girard has taken a small step back, having 27 points in 56 games this season, but has been a steady and reliable presence on the back-end for a dominant Avalanche team.

  • There is positive injury news out in the desert, as Arizona Coyotes head coach Andre Tourigny announced that defenseman Janis Moser is on the Coyotes’ road trip and is now considered day-to-day for the team (link). It’s unclear when exactly Moser, who has not played since March 15th, will return, but having the young defenseman return to finish out the season would be much-welcomed for Arizona. The Coyotes also expect prospect Jack McBain to make his NHL debut soon, says Tourigny. McBain, who the Coyotes acquired from the Minnesota Wild on March 21st, and signed on March 23rd, has been unable to play due to injury. Tourigny points to Arizona’s games at Vancouver and Calgary next week, or the following week at home as possible dates of McBain to debut. The 22-year-old spent this season and three prior as a standout for Boston College in the NCAA.
  • Edmonton Oilers’ prospect Philip Broberg is expected to return from injury within the next two weeks for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL, says Daniel Nugent-Bowman of the Athletic (link). Broberg, who has split time between Bakersfield and Edmonton, has been out since March 18. Another Oilers prospect, Dylan Holloway, did not play last night and is expected to be out at least through this weekend, says Nugent-Bowman. A return timetable is not yet clear for Holloway, however Nugent-Bowman does believe that Holloway will make his NHL debut before the end of the season (link). The 14th overall pick of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft by Edmonton, Holloway has eight goals and thirteen assists in 32 games this season for Bakersfield.
  • From Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press, defenseman Jake Walman is out of the lineup tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets with an upper-body injury (link). Walman has been a reliable defenseman for both the Red Wings and the St. Louis Blues this season, coming to Detroit from St. Louis in the Nick Leddy trade back in March. No timetable for Walman’s return has been made available yet.

Snapshots: Michigan, Meyers, Penguins, McCarron

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7:14 pm: Denver University forward, and Edmonton Oilers draft choice, Carter Savoie, came up big, scoring the overtime winner for Denver to defeat Michigan and send Denver to the men’s college hockey championship on Saturday, with Minnesota State and the University of Minnesota playing tonight for the other spot in the final. With the conclusion of Michigan’s season, attention will now turn to Michigan’s core of future NHL talent to see if and when they sign their first professional contracts.

6:55 pm: According to ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, seven or eight Michigan University players are expected to turn pro after their NCAA season comes to an end (link). Most notable among them are Sabres’ number one overall draft choice in 2021, Owen Power; the second overall selection in 2021 and the first draft pick in Seattle Kraken history, Matty Beniers; and the fifth overall choice in 2021 by the Columbus Blue Jackets, Kent Johnson. Another premier name on the highly-talented Michigan team, Luke Hughes, who was selected fourth overall in 2021 by the New Jersey Devils, is not expected to turn pro and will return to Michigan next year. The NCAA men’s hockey championship game is scheduled for Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.

  • Another player expected to turn pro is forward Ben Meyers, says Kaplan. The 23-year-old Meyers, who went undrafted, has been a standout for Minnesota, scoring 39 goals to go with 56 assists in 101 games with Minnesota over three seasons. Prior to Minnesota, Meyers spent parts of three seasons with the Fargo Force of the USHL.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are dealing with an array of non-COVID illnesses and will miss several pieces tonight, including captain Sidney Crosby, in their game against the New York Rangers. The Penguins announced they will be missing Crosby, John Marino, and Radim Zohorna for the game. The team has not confirmed if any of the players are expected to be out beyond tonight’s game. The Penguins next play Saturday afternoon at home against the Washington Capitals.
  • Michael McCarron will be out of the lineup for at least a couple of weeks, as the Nashville Predators announced the forward is week-to-week with an upper-body injury. The 27-year-old has split time between the NHL and AHL this season for Nashville, providing seven goals and seven assists in 46 games at the NHL level, using his 6’6″ frame to provide a physical presence for Nashville. There is no firm time-table yet for McCarron’s return, but the Predators will hope to get him back in time for the playoffs, if the Predators qualify, where his play style will be quite helpful in winning tough playoff-style games.

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