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Archives for September 2020

Hurricanes Not Expecting Justin Williams To Return

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Last year, it took quite a while for Justin Williams to determine his NHL future.  Instead of signing with Carolina, he took a step back to ponder his future in September before ultimately rejoining the Hurricanes in January.  It appears as if things could be heading down a similar path this offseason as GM Don Waddell told Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer that they aren’t expecting the veteran to return although they haven’t ruled it out entirely yet either.

The 38-year-old picked up eight goals over his 20 regular season games with Carolina this past season despite playing just 13:37 per night which is strong production for someone that just joined the team midseason after not playing.  Before that, he had four straight years between 48 and 52 points so it’s clear that Williams can still play at the top level.  Instead, the question remains whether or not he wants to.

His agent, Thane Campbell, indicated that a decision won’t be coming before the start of free agency on October 9th and that he expects that it will once again take a while for Williams to figure out what he wants to do.  Considering he was willing to sign a contract for the league minimum (plus $1.3MM in incentives, $500K of which was earned), this is a decision that can be dragged out for a while.  At this point, it seems likely that he’d only rejoin the Hurricanes so as long as they leave themselves a bit of wiggle room in the coming months, they’ll be able to bring Williams back if he wants to return but for now, they’ll plan as if his time with the team has come to an end.

Craig Smith To Test Free Agency

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Craig Smith has spent the past nine seasons in Nashville but it appears as if he’ll be changing teams next month.   His agent Kevin Magnuson told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that the winger will be testing free agency when the market opens up on October 9th and that Smith is seeking a three-year deal.

The 31-year-old has been a part of the Predators organization since they selected him in the fourth round (98th overall) back in 2009.  They’ve certainly had an excellent return on their investment as he has played in 661 games for them which is good for fourth in franchise history while his 330 points are good enough for sixth all-time.

However, his production has tapered off a little bit as of late.  While he managed to get 51 points in 2017-18, it’s the only time in the past five seasons that he has reached 40.  This season, he played in 69 games, tallying 18 goals and 13 assists but perhaps more tellingly, his playing time dropped to just 13:25 per night, the lowest in his career.  His usage dipped a bit further in the playoffs as he logged only 12:49 per game in their four playoff contests while being held off the scoresheet.

Smith had a $4.25MM AAV on his deal for the last five seasons and while his recent production seemingly wouldn’t justify that price tag again in what should be a weakened free agent market, Magnuson seems to think that his client will be able to once again be in that range.

I think the number, because there are eight to 10 teams that have decent cap space, I think we won’t be too far off at the end of the day. He’s not going to be signing any blockbuster deals, but at the same time, he’s going to be in the market or a little bit above it, I think.

Nashville has just over $8MM in cap room at the moment but they have multiple roster spots both up front and on the back end to fill with that money.  If some of those players sign for close to the minimum, they should have enough cap space to re-sign Smith or add another veteran but for the time being at least, they’re not prepared to bring Smith back although Magnuson wouldn’t rule out a reunion once the veteran sees what his other options will be next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  While St. Louis doesn’t have much to do up front, there is certainly some work that needs to be done on their back end.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Vince Dunn – The 23-year-old was a popular pick to take another step forward offensively this season after putting up 35 points in 78 games in his sophomore year.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, while Dunn was their only blueliner to play in all 71 of their regular season games, his production dipped to just nine goals and 14 assists.  Those numbers are still pretty good for a defenseman but it’s also telling that his playing time was also cut to just 16:16 per night which was fifth on the team.

On the surface, a short-term deal would seem like the likely way to go.  They don’t have a lot of cap room and there is a more prominent defenseman that they want to keep around.  However, if that doesn’t happen, Dunn should be in line for a bigger role on the power play and with that, a boost in points would almost certainly follow which would inevitably drive up the price tag down the road when he’ll have arbitration eligibility.  With that in mind, the time may be right to pursue a long-term deal although that would have to wait until free agency starts and more is known about the fate of their captain.

D Derrick Pouliot – While he spent most of this season in the minors, the 26-year-old had been a full-time NHL blueliner for the two previous years in Vancouver.  Pouliot was one of the higher-scoring defensemen in the AHL this year with 39 points in just 58 games and the limited NHL action this season negates his arbitration eligibility.  After being non-tendered in two straight years, it’s certainly possible that Pouliot is brought back as insurance.

Other RFAs: D Jake Dotchin, F Austin Poganski, D Mitch Reinke, F Nolan Stevens, D Jake Walman

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Alex Pietrangelo – It’s very rare that a defenseman of his caliber hits the open market but as things stand, it appears that where Pietrangelo is headed after word leaked that he had been advised to test free agency by the team when contract talks weren’t producing any progress.  The 30-year-old is a number one defenseman and has played in all situations for St. Louis for the last decade.  It’s not a matter of the Blues not wanting him back either but rather a reality of their cap situation; they just can’t afford to pay him top dollar at this time.

While the flattened salary cap will certainly have a substantial impact on the free agent marketplace, that shouldn’t extend to Pietrangelo.  Top players are still going to get paid top dollar and he’s certainly a top player.  He has had at least 48 points in each of the last four seasons while logging at least 24 minutes a night.  There should be many teams salivating at the chance to have that on their back end, even if they can’t afford it on their salary cap right away.  Pietrangelo should have a chance at commanding top-five money for players at his position which would put him at an AAV of $8.25MM at a minimum (it should check in a bit higher than that).  The only way he could get an eighth year on his deal is if he signs before the market opens up, either by re-signing or doing a sign-and-trade.  Accordingly, there should be more news on his fate before too long.

F Troy Brouwer – The Blues signed him in late November to provide them with some veteran depth but while he was up with them for most of the time after that, he didn’t get much playing time as he played in just 13 regular season games.  However, he got into four postseason contests and scored on his only shot.  At this point, his upside is as a 13th or 14th forward that can be trusted to play eight minutes a night so his market should be limited until closer to training camp where he may have to settle for a PTO.

Other UFAs: D Andreas Borgman, F Nick Lappin, D/F Joey LaLeggia, F Jordan Nolan, F Mike Vecchione

Projected Cap Space

While they already have 22 players under contract, St. Louis also has over $76MM in commitments for next season, per CapFriendly.  With the Upper Limit of the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM, that’s enough to re-sign Dunn but nowhere near enough to keep (or replace) Pietrangelo.  Accordingly, GM Doug Armstrong will be among the many teams that will be looking to free up some cap room in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Boston Bruins

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The offseason has arrived for most squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round and official first round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the second round.  Next up is a look at Boston.

Things didn’t go according to plan for the Bruins this season.  While they were the team to beat for most of the year before the pandemic hit, they never really found their stride after that.  They scuffled through the seeding games and while they were able to beat an upstart Carolina team in the first round, they were eliminated somewhat quickly by Tampa Bay in the second.  To be fair, they were without Tuukka Rask as he left the bubble early so GM Don Sweeney shouldn’t be looking at any big shakeups but there are a few things he should be looking to accomplish in the coming weeks and months.

Shore Up The Left Side

There have been two fixtures at the top of the pecking order on the left side of Boston’s back end for the past several years.  Torey Krug has been in that role for seven years while Zdeno Chara has spent the last 14 years in a Bruins sweater.  That consistency is about to change, however.  At this point, Krug is likely to test free agency where he’ll be the top left-shot blueliner available and will garner plenty of interest with his offensive consistency.  Meanwhile, a return for Chara certainly isn’t ruled out but he’s 43 years old and his days of being a full-time player in the top four are over.  There’s still a role that he can play in an NHL lineup but he’s probably best utilized on the third pairing.

There aren’t really any internal candidates that they should feel comfortable about when it comes to filling a high-minute role.  Matt Grzelcyk is serviceable and may be able to take on a slightly bigger workload but he’s not going from 18 minutes a night to a top-pairing spot.  John Moore still has three years left on his contract but he hasn’t been able to lock down a regular spot in the lineup since joining them two summers ago.  Urho Vaakanainen and Jakub Zboril were first-round picks but neither of them has been able to crack the NHL roster on a full-time basis so asking them to step into a big role isn’t ideal either.

This is an area that will need to be addressed but free agent options are limited.  There are only six left-shot defenders that averaged over 20 minutes a night this season that will become unrestricted free agents and of those, Chara and Krug rank first and third on that list respectively in terms of ATOI.  Of the other four, two are role players in Ron Hainsey and Dmitry Kulikov.  Erik Gustafsson has shown some offensive prowess over the last two seasons but his output dipped sharply relatively to his 2018-19 campaign.  T.J. Brodie is the other one in that group and while he’ll undoubtedly garner interest from Boston (and plenty of other teams), he has spent a lot of time lately on the right side of the back end.  Washington’s Brenden Dillon just missed out on that minutes cutoff but he’ll get consideration as well.  Beyond those players though, pickings are slim.  As a result, Sweeney may have to turn to the trade market to fill at least one of these two potential spots.

New Deal For DeBrusk

Winger Jake DeBrusk is Boston’s most notable restricted free agent and also happens to be one of the more intriguing ones out of this class.  Statistically, his point total has dropped with each season from 43 points to 42 to 35 this year where his point-per-game average was the lowest of his three NHL seasons.  That’s one way of looking at it.  The other is that he stepped into an NHL lineup at 20 and has scored at least 16 goals every year despite not seeing time on the front line.  There’s a case to be made that the best is yet to come given his age and consistency; give him better linemates and the production should improve.  On the other hand, 200-plus games of statistically similar production is a notable sample size.  Management could certainly argue that he’s shown that he’s a capable secondary scorer but at this point, he’s not worth getting paid more than that.

DeBrusk’s agent has made it known that his client has no interest in taking any sort of hometown discount but this isn’t really a situation where Boston is likely to look for one.  If they have eyes on making a big addition (or finding a way to get something done with Krug), they’ll have to push for a short-term deal.  DeBrusk doesn’t have arbitration rights so that’s one piece of leverage that the team has.  On the other hand, if they think that he’s a part of their long-term future, a small overpayment based on his current numbers to get him to buy out some UFA years could be justified if they think he can get to another level.

There is one other option, of course.  A 23-year-old with his offensive track record should catch the eyes of some teams looking to add to their depth up front.  With Boston’s veteran core unlikely to be changed beyond their situation on defense, it’s plausible to think that DeBrusk could wind up being one of their best trade chips (if not their biggest one) if Sweeney opts to go in that direction.  Over the next few weeks, the GM will have to figure out what he wants to do with his young winger.

Improve Secondary Scoring

This one has been pretty much an annual fixture on their to-do list but it isn’t for a lack of trying.  In recent years, they’ve brought in Charlie Coyle, Nick Ritchie, and Ondrej Kase who all remain on the roster.  Before landing more controllable players, they tried Rick Nash, Marcus Johansson, and Drew Stafford as rental players near the trade deadline.  All have had varying degrees of success but the need persists.

Three forwards had at least 20 goals this season.  Those same three were the only ones to have more than 50 points.  They’ve been first through third in team scoring in each of the last three years.  Yes, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron have been quite good for quite a while but they were responsible for over 47% of Boston’s goals this past season.  That’s certainly an impressive performance on their part but it underscores the lack of secondary scoring.

Kase and Ritchie didn’t exactly light it up upon being acquired but given that they were transitioning to a new team and had a lengthy stoppage in between, it wouldn’t be fair to infer that they won’t be able to produce once they’ve had a full training camp under their belts.  But at the same time, they can’t be counted on to fill that void either.  The good news is that there are more of those types of forwards available than there are impact defensemen so this is something that Sweeney will have more options to address.  Getting a blueliner has to take top priority but adding more scoring depth up front is something else he should be trying to do before the puck drops on 2020-21.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Entry Draft, Daccord, Koivu

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The NHL Entry Draft is just around the corner and the Ottawa Senators will be almost living at the (virtual) podium. Ottawa owns seven picks in the first two rounds including the third and fifth overall selections. Jeff Marek gave his thoughts on that fifth pick in today’s 31 Thoughts podcast for Sportsnet, including some interesting names that may be in play.

Five’s gonna be interesting. I’m told there are three different beliefs in that organization.

There is the “let’s take a defenseman here.” There is a belief that that would be Jake Sanderson, Geoff Sanderson’s kid. There is another belief within the organization that they are thin on the right side as it comes to prospects after players like Drake Batherson. That Jack Quinn, who was a 50-goal scorer two-way player with the Ottawa 67’s, the local boy, might be the right fit for Ottawa…and then the wildcard in all of it is the goaltender.

Yaroslav Askarov, that goaltender Marek mentions, is one of the more interesting prospects to follow in the draft given the wide-ranging opinions on where netminders should be taken in the draft. In the same podcast, Elliotte Friedman suggests that even the New Jersey Devils would consider Askarov at seven, despite having Mackenzie Blackwood in the organization already.

  • The Arizona Coyotes have named Brian Daccord special assistant to the general manager and director of goaltending operations. Daccord comes to Arizona by way of Toronto after spending the last several seasons with the Maple Leafs. Father of Ottawa Senators goalie prospect Joey Daccord, Brian comes with plenty of experience in professional hockey including seven years as the goaltending coach for Adler Mannheim in the DEL.
  • Mikko Koivu’s time in Minnesota may be over, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his playing career is done. Koivu told reporters including Michael Russo of The Athletic that he is returning to Finland to start training as if he is playing in 2020-21, though he hasn’t made a decision on his future just yet. Koivu, 37, scored just four goals in 55 games for the Wild this season and has played in nearly 1,100 games over a long career.

Justin Barron Out Indefinitely Following Medical Procedure

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One of the top prospects available for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft will not start his junior season on time. Justin Barron is out indefinitely following a medical procedure. A further timeline will be given after a follow-up examination. Barron missed several months last season with a blood clot, though the press release does not clarify whether this is the same issue or even related.

The QMJHL season is set to start next week, with the Halifax Mooseheads playing their first game on October 2. Barron is ranked 16th among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting and was expected to be taken in the first round.

The 18-year-old is among the most polished defenders available in the draft and scored 41 points in 68 games during the 2018-19 season. While those numbers fell as he dealt with the blood clot issue this year, Barron was still considered a strong prospect that would be snatched up quickly in the draft.

Montreal Canadiens Extend Jeff Petry

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The Montreal Canadiens have made a huge move just a few weeks before free agency opens, extending Jeff Petry for another four years. Petry was still under contract for the 2020-21 season but will now be locked up through 2024-25. The new deal is worth a total of $25MM, giving him a $6.25MM cap hit starting in 2021-22. It also includes a 15-team no-trade clause and a no-movement clause, meaning he will require automatic protection in the upcoming expansion draft. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet tweets the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $5.0MM salary
  • 2022-23: $3.0MM signing bonus + $4.5MM salary
  • 2023-24: $3.0MM signing bonus + $4.5MM salary
  • 2024-25: $2.0MM signing bonus + $3.0MM salary

Though he still doesn’t get quite the recognition of one, Petry has developed into one of the best two-way defensemen in the league over the last few years. In fact, his 128 points over the last three seasons put him 17th among all NHL defenders, while his 36 goals sit 11th over the same time period. Though he’ll never get the same type of press that teammate Shea Weber receives, Petry is almost equally important to the Canadiens and showed it this postseason.

The 32-year-old defenseman averaged more than 25 minutes a night as Montreal shocked the hockey world by defeating the Pittsburgh Penguins in the qualification round and took the Philadelphia Flyers to six games. For a team that wasn’t even expecting to be included in the playoffs, their performance was admirable and as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets, could have had a real impact on the uber-competitive Petry’s decision to remain.

There’s no doubt that Petry earned an extension with his play, but it’s not like this deal comes without a fair bit of risk for the team. Petry will turn 33 in December (likely before the 2020-21 campaign even begins), meaning this deal takes him deep into his thirties at an expensive cap hit. While his current play is deserving of a raise on the $5.5MM cap hit he currently carries, it’s hard to expect him to continue at that level for the duration of his new contract.

Combine that with the fact that Weber still has six years left on his current contract, which keeps him at a $7.86MM cap hit through 2025-26 and the Canadiens will have quite a bit of space eaten up by two aging defensemen. Of course, there are ways around that, including a revamped cap recapture system should Weber decide to retire before his contract expires. But with a Montreal team that is still looking for an identity upfront, committing so much money to aging defensemen could end up backfiring.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Montreal Canadiens Agree To Terms With Joseph Blandisi

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The Montreal Canadiens have come to an agreement with Joseph Blandisi on a new contract, a one-year two-way pact that will carry a $700K salary at the NHL level and a $325K salary in the AHL. Blandisi was scheduled to become a restricted free agent next month.

Blandisi, 26, was actually a sixth-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche back in 2012, but never did sign a contract with them. Instead, he re-entered the 2014 draft and was completely passed over, becoming an undrafted free agent that had to return to junior. Perhaps motivated by the snub, Blandisi scored 52 goals and 112 points in the 2014-15 season, earning himself an entry-level contract with the New Jersey Devils in the process.

Beating the odds once again, Blandisi was up with the NHL squad the following season, playing in 41 games for the Devils and scoring 17 points as a rookie. Unfortunately, those would be his career-highs to this point. Blandisi has just 101 games played and 31 points in the NHL, but can serve as a depth option for the Canadiens next season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Paul MacLean

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have added another familiar name to their coaching staff, hiring Paul MacLean as an assistant today. MacLean most recently served as an assistant on the Columbus Blue Jackets bench, but is coming back to Ontario where he was head coach of the Ottawa Senators for four seasons.

Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe released a statement on his new staff member:

Over nearly two decades as an NHL coach, Paul has filled every role on a coaching staff, winning a Stanley Cup and Jack Adams trophy along the way. Adding someone of Paul’s expertise and character to advise and assist our staff is something that we felt was very important as we seek to make tangible steps next season.

Ironically enough, MacLean actually served for several years in Detroit and Anaheim under former Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, who Keefe replaced last season. He has also worked with Bruce Boudreau in Anaheim, another name that was rumored to be in the mix for the Toronto staff. Instead, he’ll be the one joining Keefe, incumbent assistant Dave Hakstol and newcomer Manny Malhotra in Toronto.

MacLean is expected to be the “eye-in-the-sky” for the Maple Leafs according to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic, the role that Malhotra held for the Vancouver Canucks before coming to Toronto. In his only time as a head coach, MacLean actually took the Senators to the playoffs twice, posting a 114-90-35 record with the team. He took home the Jack Adams Award as Coach of the Year in 2013. He was also a star player in his day, recording 324 goals and 673 points in 719 career NHL games.

If you are wondering what kind of relationship MacLean and Keefe will have given the former’s experience as an NHL head coach, remember that Keefe’s long-time minor league and junior assistant A.J. MacLean is Paul’s son.

Philadelphia Flyers Sign Alex Lyon

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The Philadelphia Flyers will bring back some of their goaltending depth for another season, signing Alex Lyon to a new one-year contract. The deal is worth $700K and will allow Lyon to avoid unrestricted free agency next month.

There’s no doubt that Carter Hart will be the Flyers starter and workhorse next season, but as we discussed yesterday goaltending depth could have even bigger importance due to the condensed schedule. Lyon, while not exactly pushing for a full-time roster spot in the NHL, does provide solid performance as an organization’s third goaltender. In 145 AHL appearances, the undrafted free agent signing has recorded a .913 save percentage and 2.73 goals-against average.

One thing to always remember with Lyon is that he is no longer waiver-exempt, meaning that in order to be stashed in the minor leagues he’ll have to pass through unclaimed. While he’s done it before, an injury at the wrong time to the wrong team could mean a desperate grab for an available netminder like Lyon.

There is also still some uncertainty over who will serve as backup for Hart in the NHL next season. Brian Elliott is scheduled for unrestricted free agency and is now 35, while the team’s other young prospects are likely not yet ready for duty in the big leagues. If they don’t sign another goalie over the next few months, Lyon could potentially have a pathway to that spot.

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