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PHR Panel: Coaching Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential coaching candidates.

Q: Which current unemployed coach will generate the most interest in the offseason?

Brian La Rose:

Gerard Gallant’s firing in Florida back in 2016-17 was rather stunning.  So was his firing this season with Vegas holding down a playoff spot and the fact there were discussions on an extension not long before it happened. He’s known as a good communicator which is becoming more and more important now which certainly helps.

What will also help is that both of his recent teams had a first-place finish under his short tenure which will catch the eye of owners and general managers looking for a quick turnaround.  The fact that he has had success with teams in a (re)building stage will be of interest to those types of teams as well.  In other words, just about every club with a vacancy (current or future) should have Gallant at least on their shortlist.  The underlying numbers and analytics may give a couple of teams some pause but if Gallant wants to be a head coach next season, he’ll have multiple teams to choose from.

One other coach that will likely get some consideration is Bruce Boudreau.  While his playoff track record isn’t the best, he has shown an ability to get a lot out of his teams in the regular season.  At 65, he’s not going to be looking at a long-term situation but rather one where he can go for another quick fix.  There will be teams looking for a speedy turnaround which will have him on the radar.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

Due to several coaching changes during the course of the 2019-20 season, there are many high-quality coaches that are available, including Peter Laviolette, Boudreau, Randy Carlyle, but probably most importantly, Gallant.

All will likely draw plenty of interest for teams looking to make changes at the coaching position, but Gallant is the likely prize of the bunch. The head coach did everything imaginable to lead a group of misfits to the Stanley Cup in his first year as head coach of an expansion franchise and continued to show his success in year two. That year ended early due to a bad call by the officials, but the veteran coach proved that he is good enough to coach any team and will be hired quickly.

Gallant does have a few detractors, who point to things such as sticking with his favorite players too long and his unwillingness to play forwards who lack quality defensive play, but for most teams, that’s a positive. Not entirely sure what team might be interested in his services, but he has proven an ability to work with all types of teams and should be a big success wherever he ends up.

Zach Leach:

Even if you feel Mike Babcock and Jim Montgomery are still off-limits due to past behavior and even if you think that Boudreau is played out, Laviolette and Gallant alone make this an elite free agent class of head coaches.

Laviolette has proven to consistently be among the best coaches in the NHL, making the playoffs in 11 of his 15 complete seasons. He has also done so with four different teams, showing an ability to quickly adapt to new rosters and personnel. Laviolette won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has made an appearance in the Cup Final two other times with two other teams, including 2017 with the Nashville Predators. For a 55-year-old, Laviolette is extraordinarily accomplished and still has plenty of gas in the tank.

Gallant, 56, also has far more to give and is likely raring to go after a surprise firing this season. This is the second time that Gallant has been dismissed seemingly out of nowhere, the other coming in 2016-17 after leading the Florida Panthers to a division title the year prior. The 2018 Jack Adams winner deserves another chance after leading the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, an unheard of accomplishment in sports, and taking them to the playoffs again last season.

Both of these coaches are elite and there will draw plenty of interest, with a number of potential openings and a new expansion team lurking. However, if I had to give the nod to one, I would go with Laviolette based on greater experience and a longer history of winning. It’s also worth noting that his Cup title with Carolina is the closest thing in terms of shock and awe to Gallant’s run with Vegas in recent memory, while his most recent Final appearance came just one year prior to Gallant’s. In my opinion, Laviolette is still one of the game’s best.

Gavin Lee:

It’s hard to argue against coaches like Gallant and Laviolette, but I think it would be foolish to overlook the aura that has always surrounded Babcock just because of the stories that followed him out of Toronto. There is a reason why Babcock pushed against the ceiling for coaches in terms of salary when he signed with the Maple Leafs in 2015, earning a whopping eight-year deal worth $50MM. He has been extremely well-respected around the hockey world for a long time and even though things certainly went south extremely quickly in Toronto, there will be teams that want him to come in and establish a winning culture.

No, I’m not by any means saying that Babcock would be my choice if I was looking to hire a coach this offseason. Even looking beyond the questionable motivation tactics he used during his time in Toronto and the stories of player frustration that have followed him around for a long time, there is reason to doubt Babcock’s actual results over the last decade. Since his last Stanley Cup Final appearance with the Detroit Red Wings in 2009, teams under Babcock have gone just 32-46 in the playoffs. In Toronto he was never able to make it out of the first round, though he did usher them to the playoffs in three out of four full seasons.

Still, a Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals will keep your resume at the top of the pile for a long time and if he wants to, the 56-year old Babcock will certainly have a chance to coach again in the NHL—a league that has a long history of hiring “hated” coaches after a short time out of the spotlight. Darren Dreger was even on TSN radio recently discussing Babcock’s future, and counted himself in the camp that believes there will be another opportunity for the veteran coach in the future.

Calgary Notes: Event Shutdown, Sveningsson, Peters

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Just like Toronto earlier this week, the city of Calgary has announced a shutdown of all public events until June 30. Unlike Toronto however, who said its ban would not affect the Maple Leafs, Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi explicitly said that the Flames will not be allowed to “hold gatherings” during that time, according to Danny Austin of Postmedia.

While the NHL already seemed more likely to be holding whatever remaining 2019-20 games they play in July and August (if at all), this guarantees no action will be held in Calgary for the next three months. The Flames currently sit third in the Pacific Division but would drop to the second wildcard position if the league decided to use points percentage to determine seeding. Either way, it seems like they would be included in this year’s playoffs, meaning this ruling and others like it only complicate things moving forward.

  • One Flames prospect that won’t be taking part in any Calgary games for a while is Filip Sveningsson, who has signed with MODO of the Swedish Allsvenskan (second league) for next season. A seventh-round pick from 2017, Sveningsson played most of his season in the SHL this year but will move back down a level and try to help MODO get back up to the top league. The Flames hold his exclusive draft rights until June 1, 2021.
  • Bill Peters, the former head coach of the Flames who resigned from his position following the investigation of past events brought up by Akim Aliu, is potentially heading overseas for his next job. Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal tweets that Peters’ name has come up in Russia as a possible candidate for a coaching job with Yekaterinburg in the KHL. Pavel Datsyuk, who played under Peters when he was an assistant with the Detroit Red Wings, spent this season with Yekaterinburg.

Byfuglien Saga Reaching Conclusion

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In times like these it is easy to forget about those NHL transactional situations that were ongoing when the league decided to pause their season, but even though no games are being played there is work being done to conclude them. One such situation revolved around the Winnipeg Jets and Dustin Byfuglien, which included all the markings of a good drama—a lack of communication, heaps of frustration and the withholding of large sums of money.

Byfuglien, 35, seemed like he was leaning towards retirement at one point last offseason, but when he didn’t go that route and instead simply failed to report to Jets’ training camp he was eventually suspended by the team without pay. The veteran defenseman opted for ankle surgery in October without the team’s involvement, only complicating things.

For months now there has been reporting suggesting that the two sides were getting closer to a settlement on the dispute over his remaining salary, but nothing has been officially announced from either side. Last night on TSN’s Insider Trading, Darren Dreger explained that it all may be coming to a head soon:

It is nearing an end, but obviously given current events it’s not top priority for all involved. What I know is that the National Hockey League is scheduled to discuss the situation with the Winnipeg Jets in the very near future. Now, the Players’ Association, the league, the player and the Winnipeg Jets are all aligned in the termination agreement, but it hasn’t been executed yet and because of that the Winnipeg Jets aren’t in a position to announce. The detail work between the league and Winnipeg Jets is expected to ironed out in the near future.

While it’s unclear what kind of an agreement will be executed in terms of payment, it will mark the end of Byfuglien’s tenure in Winnipeg. Whether he plays NHL hockey again in the future will be up to him, but you can bet that there will at least be some lukewarm interest should he hit unrestricted free agency. To be clear, Byfuglien would not be eligible for the 2019-20 playoffs with a new team regardless of when they happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Montreal Canadiens Extend Laurent Dauphin

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The Montreal Canadiens will be bringing back another one of their minor league forwards, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract extension with Laurent Dauphin. The deal will carry a salary of $700K in the NHL, $175K in the AHL and a $200K guarantee. Dauphin was scheduled to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent at the end of the season after playing in just 35 NHL games through his first several professional seasons.

Dauphin, 25, was originally selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, but never did really become the offensive weapon in the pros that he was at the junior level. After a number of years in the Arizona Coyotes minor league system, peppered with 35 NHL games across four different seasons and a trade to the Chicago Blackhawks that lasted just six months before he was returned, Dauphin found himself on the move last February to the Nashville Predators organization.

Even with his new home, there wasn’t much of an NHL opportunity, so Dauphin found himself on the move again a few months ago. He arrived in his native Quebec and ended up suiting up for 25 games with the Laval Rocket, scoring 15 points. He apparently has done enough to prove he deserves another shot next season, though it’s still unlikely he ever becomes an impact player in the NHL.

Jordan Kawaguchi Receiving NHL Interest From A Handful Of Teams

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Of the three players that were named as a Hobey Baker Hat Trick Finalist earlier today, only one of them is an undrafted player in center Jordan Kawaguchi.  The 22-year-old recently told Postmedia’s Steve Ewen that he has had interest from a “handful” of NHL teams but that he is still considering returning to North Dakota for his senior year as well.

Kawaguchi’s third season was certainly his best as he easily surpassed his career highs across the board with 15 goals and 30 assists in 33 games.  His 45 points made him the second-leading scorer in the NCAA behind only Jack Dugan, a fifth-round pick of Vegas back in 2017.

So with that type of production, why aren’t more teams going after him?  He’s listed at just 5’9 which will scare some teams away while his skating isn’t at that top level for a smaller player.  Kawaguchi’s playmaking will be his calling card at the next level but evidently, not every team is sold on that just yet.

That could be part of the reason that Kawaguchi is considering staying at North Dakota for his final season.  A repeat or improved performance with a chance to work a bit more on his skating could certainly help garner more interest than he has now.  Of course, it could also backfire as it’s hard to top a season that made him a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award.

If he does decide to go the professional route, Kawaguchi would be forced to either sign a two-year, entry-level deal that begins next season or hold out hope that the NHL resumes play and allows him to burn the first year right away.  Alternatively, he could agree to terms on both types of deals as a handful of players have done in recent days but with only a small group of teams showing interest, does he have the leverage to command that?  It probably won’t be too much longer before we find out.

Stretch Run Storylines: Florida Panthers

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Florida.

Optimism was high for the Panthers heading into this season.  Bolstered with a high-priced new starting goalie and a well-respected head coach (not to mention some other smaller upgrades), they were hoping to be in contention this season.  Instead, they’re presently on the outside looking in at the playoffs but are close enough to get in if regular season play resumes.  Their positioning in the standings is just one of the elements to watch for down the stretch.

Who Stays, Who Goes?

With a little over $60MM in commitments for next season, the Panthers have some wiggle room to work with this offseason although with only 13 players counting towards that total, they have a lot of spots before they can fill out their roster.  Heading into the season, it was looking like Florida would only be able to retain one of their two notable pending unrestricted free agents on the wing in Evgenii Dadonov and Mike Hoffman.  Trading Vincent Trocheck was supposed to help their chances but the potential for a flattened or lower salary cap now largely offsets that.  Accordingly, they may not be able to keep both of them after all even with Trocheck off the books.

After putting up 70 points apiece last season, Hoffman was producing at a nearly identical rate this year while Dadonov’s numbers dipped a little bit as he was on pace for less than 60 points, a mark he reached in both of his seasons with the Panthers.

Hoffman is about seven months younger than Dadonov and both will be expected to command a reasonably long-term deal this summer.  Even in a potentially deflated market, a five-year or six-year term may be doable.  As things stand, both should be looking at raises on their current price tags ($5.1875MM for Hoffman, $4MM for Dadonov).  If they can only afford to keep one of them, how they fare down the stretch and potentially in the postseason could go a long way towards determining which one stays with Florida.

Bobrovsky’s Struggles

In recent years, one of the themes around Florida was ‘if they only had even average goaltending’.  That position had been their Achilles’ heel but Sergei Bobrovsky was supposed to change that.  The Panthers demonstrated how confident they were with him being the long-term solution when they signed him to a seven-year, $70MM contract.

Let’s just say that they haven’t been rewarded on that investment yet.  The veteran has a .900 SV% on the season, his lowest since his sophomore campaign in Philadelphia when he posted a .899 mark in 28 games.  His GAA of 3.23 is the worst of his career by nearly a quarter of a goal per game.  These are numbers that are expected of a journeyman backup, not the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history.  Instead, they’re getting basically the same results as last year, just at a higher price tag.

But some cause for optimism here isn’t unfounded.  Bobrovsky has gone on hot stretches in the past and carried a team on his shoulders and with the firepower Florida has, they don’t even need him to do that.  If he plays even close to a level of an average goaltender, that could very well be enough to get them over the hump.  He will certainly be one to keep an eye on if games resume.

Standings Watch

There are a handful of teams that will be unhappy if the NHL jumps immediately to the playoffs without expanding the format and Florida is certainly among those.  Earlier this week, captain Aleksander Barkov told George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required) that he doesn’t “think it would be right if we’re left out”.

That point of view is understandable as the Panthers are within striking distance of both a Wild Card spot and the third seed in the Atlantic Division; they’re within three points of each.  On top of that, they have a game in hand on Columbus and Toronto, the teams they’re chasing for those two positions.  They also have a game against the Maple Leafs that could very well make or break their fortunes.  Florida controls their own destiny if they get the opportunity to play out the rest of the regular season or at least part of it.  They’re likely to be the team that’s right in it until the end, assuming the end hasn’t hit already.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ryan Shea Not Expected To Sign With Blackhawks

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Soon after a report surfaced that Luke Martin was unlikely to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes, news that another top collegiate defenseman will test free agency has popped up. According to Rinkside Rhode Islander reporter Mark Divver, Ryan Shea will not sign with the Chicago Blackhawks and instead will become an unrestricted free agent later this summer. Shea recently completed his senior season at Northeastern University, where he served as captain.

Unlike Martin, whose game almost entirely revolves around his defensive play, Shea has blossomed offensively over the years at Northeastern and recorded 31 points in 34 games this season. The left-handed defenseman was a fourth-round pick of the Blackhawks back in 2015 but played a year in the USHL before heading to college. He can become an unrestricted free agent after August 15th—though that date may change depending on how the league ends up scheduling the coronavirus-delayed offseason.

Chicago announced four signings earlier today, including Evan Barratt, one of their more highly-touted college prospects, but Shea shouldn’t be completely overlooked. The 23-year old has improved his skating and defensive play every year and was relied on in all situations by the Huskies.

Earlier this year, Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke to Shea and asked him if he felt any loyalty to the Blackhawks organization. At that point, the young defenseman told Powers that his relationship with Blackhawks director of player development Mark Eaton was “very strong” and that Chicago felt like the right spot by “all indications.” Obviously, things haven’t gone exactly according to that plan.

Luke Martin Not Expected To Sign With Hurricanes

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Every summer, some of the college players that were drafted several years ago end up becoming unrestricted free agents. They have spent four years in their NCAA program and only have to wait a few months to earn the right to sign with whichever team they want. While the day that draft rights expire is usually in the middle of August, it’s not clear how that will work this year thanks to the current pause.

Still, news is bound to start coming out about which prospects intend to test free agency. Luke Martin appears to be one of those players, as Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest reports that the University of Michigan defenseman is not expected to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Martin, 21, was the 52nd overall pick in 2017—slightly higher than his ranking on several lists before the draft. He ended up ranked 61st among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, but the Hurricanes clearly liked what they had seen in his first year of college hockey. Martin had previously been a member of the national team development program and had registered seven points in 35 games as a freshman with the Wolverines.

The 6’2″ defenseman never really has taken a step forward offensively. His junior season resulted in just nine points in 36 games, but he has logged big minutes against top opponents since his freshman season and could be an interesting depth addition for an NHL organization later this year.

New York Rangers Sign Justin Richards

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The New York Rangers have added another undrafted college free agent, this time agreeing to terms Justin Richards to an entry-level contract that will begin next season. Richards recently completed his junior season at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, where he served as an alternate captain.

Richards, 22, scored 25 points in 34 games this season for the Bulldogs, but it wasn’t just his offensive talent that earned him a contract with the Rangers. A two-time NCHC Best Defensive Forward recipient, Richards is known most for his exquisite two-way play. His defensive capabilities are a big reason why UMD captured two national titles—in fact, as a freshman he didn’t even score a single goal in his 44 appearances.

That’s likely the role the Rangers have him penciled in for if he’s to make the NHL at some point down the line. The undrafted Richards will have to make an impact on both sides of the puck, but his defense will always be his calling card.

Chicago Blackhawks Sign Four Players

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The Chicago Blackhawks have had a busy morning, signing new contracts with four different players. The team has announced two-year contract extensions for both Matthew Highmore and Kevin Lankinen, while also inking Evan Barratt and Andrei Altybarmakyan to entry-level deals.

Highmore’s contract will carry an average annual value of $725K and is a two-way deal in 2020-21 and a one-way deal in 2021-22. Lankinen meanwhile gets an $800K average annual value, though it is also a two-way deal in 2020-21 and a one-way contract in 2021-22. Due to their ages, Barratt has signed a three-year entry-level deal, while Altybarmakyan’s contract is only for two years.

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the team would extend Highmore, after the 24-year old proved he could be a full-time member of the NHL squad. The undrafted forward had six points in 36 games with the Blackhawks this season, mostly playing an energy role on the fourth line. His near-minimum cap hit will help the Chicago front office navigate an offseason in which they have several tough negotiations. Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome are both scheduled for restricted free agency, but the team won’t have much room if the salary cap is adversely affected by the stoppage as expected.

Lankinen meanwhile lands a new deal as a depth goaltender, one that may be very important to the organization depending on what happens with Corey Crawford. The veteran goaltender is scheduled for unrestricted free agency, leaving the Blackhawks without a clear starter for next year.

It is Barratt who is perhaps the most interesting player signed today, after finishing another excellent season at Penn State. The 21-year old forward was originally a third-round selection in 2017, but has turned in three strong years at the collegiate level and was even selected for Team USA at the 2019 World Juniors. Barratt will turn pro and try to work his way up a Blackhawks organization that will be looking for young, cheap talent in the coming years.

Altybarmakyan is another third-round pick from 2017, selected out of Russia 20 spots higher than Barratt. The 21-year old winger has played the last two seasons for Sochi in the KHL, scoring six goals and 17 points this year. Despite arriving in the Blackhawks organization at the same time, Altybarmakyan could have actually been picked a year earlier—he went undrafted in his first year of eligibility. Since his birthday is nearly six months earlier than Barratt, his entry-level deal will expire a year sooner.

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