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Archives for July 2019

Snapshots: Djoos, Seattle, Hyman, Oilers

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The one-year, $1.25MM contract that Capitals defenseman Christian Djoos received from an arbitrator came in a little higher than the team hoped given their current salary cap situation.  That has led some to speculate that Washington may look to move the blueliner but NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan cautions that it’s an unlikely scenario.  The 24-year-old is coming off of a tough injury-plagued season so his trade value isn’t particularly high at the moment.  If the Caps decide to try to waive Djoos to bury most of that contract in the minors (something they might do with recently re-signed center Chandler Stephenson), any interested team may simply wait to pick him up for free over parting with a negligible asset to get him.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • With Seattle now having their GM in place in Ron Francis, the focus has shifted back towards what the team name will be. Francis told NHL.com’s Nick Cotsonika that the hope is to have that in place by early next year while also mentioning that they’ve received no shortage of interest from people looking to work for the expansion franchise.  While they don’t begin playing until the 2021-22 season and won’t be able to draft anyone until 2021, Francis has already started his scouting duties at the ongoing World Junior Summer Showcase.
  • Maple Leafs winger Zach Hyman told the Toronto Sun’s Terry Koshan that his recovery from ACL surgery is going well but stopped short of suggesting he’d be ready to go by training camp. He underwent the procedure in late April and it carries a typical six month recovery period.  Even if he winds up recovering ahead of schedule, the prudent move may be for them to still have him start the season on injured reserve to be on the safe side.
  • The Oilers are expected to invite undrafted prospect Jaxon Bellamy to their upcoming rookie camp, notes Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal. The 18-year-old spent last season with Sherbrooke of the QMJHL, recording 16 points and 48 penalty minutes in 60 games.

Free Agent Profile: Patrick Marleau

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It has been an interesting couple of years for veteran winger Patrick Marleau.  It was only a couple of summers ago where the idea of him leaving San Jose seemed rather unrealistic but after they wouldn’t offer a third year on his contract, he was on his way to Toronto.  Now, with the Maple Leafs paying Carolina a first-round pick to buy out that third year, he’s back on the open market once again.

After three straight campaigns of 25 goals or more, the 39-year-old showed some signs of slowing down last season but still managed to post a respectable 16 goals and 21 assists while extending his streak of years that he played in every game to ten straight.  While 37 points isn’t a great return on what was a $6.25MM cap hit, the fact that Marleau can now be signed for cheaper than that should help him garner a fair bit of interest on the open market.

Of course, Marleau’s case is a little different than most.  He hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to return to the West Coast and didn’t appear to give a whole lot of thought towards actually playing for Carolina, something GM Don Waddell did try to talk him into doing.  Considering they made the Conference Final last season, that would have been a relatively compelling case.  As a result, his market is a lot more restricted than it is for many of the other players that are still in need of a new contract.

Potential Suitors

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  There’s no denying that he’d like to go back to San Jose, the place he spent the first 19 years of his career.  He’d slot in nicely in a third line role with the capability to move up from time to time when injuries arise.  However, cap space could be a bit of a concern for the Sharks; while they have roughly $4.6MM in cap room per CapFriendly, they’re also still interested in retaining veteran center Joe Thornton as well.  Signing Thornton wouldn’t leave a lot of room to fit Marleau in.

The Kings had trade discussions with Toronto before the draft about taking on Marleau’s deal but nothing came of it.  Now with a chance to bring him in at a much cheaper price, they could circle back.  However, he may not be the best of potential trade assets as he’d likely be looking for trade protection.

Arizona, another team in the West, could also benefit from someone like Marleau as they look to add offense to a team that struggled to score last season.  They’re fairly tight to the cap as it is and would have to dip into offseason LTIR for Marian Hossa if they were to sign him though.

Projected Contract

If Marleau was open to signing with more than just a handful of teams, he’d be an intriguing free agent and could land a reasonable one-year deal.  However, with such a limited market, it’s safe to say he’ll be signing for closer to the league minimum than what his previous deal was.  Back in June, we projected a one-year, $900K deal plus $1MM in performance bonuses when we ranked him 31st in our Top 50 UFA list.  That’s still about the right contract for him as if he winds up with a cap-strapped team, the bonus structure would at least allow them to potentially defer the cap hit on those for next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Starting this week, we’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

On Monday we asked the PHR community to weigh in on who should have been selected first overall in 2007 and after more than 2,100 votes (and probably even before that) the decision is clear. Though he didn’t get quite the 88% that Sidney Crosby came away with for the top honor from our 2005 redraft series, Patrick Kane was still the obvious choice to retain his top spot. Kane earned more than 85% of the votes with no other player earning even 4%. That certainly makes the decision for second a mystery, one that we’ll look at today.

Back in 2007, the Philadelphia Flyers held the second overall pick and decided to take a powerhouse winger from just a couple of hours up the road. Middleton, New Jersey native James van Riemsdyk had been a top prospect for years, though he had had gone a different route than fellow American-born winger Kane. While Kane decided to take his talents to the OHL in his draft year and play for the London Knights, van Riemsdyk stayed with the USNTDP and suited up with future NHL names like Colin Wilson, Jimmy Hayes and Kevin Shattenkirk. The young forward had been committed to the University of New Hampshire for years and wouldn’t join the Flyers organization for another two seasons.

When he did, it took him no time at all to make an impression. Jumping straight to the NHL in the 2009-10 season, van Riemsdyk recorded 15 goals and 35 points in his rookie campaign but finished 11th in Calder Trophy voting—the award went to Tyler Myers, who put up 48 points as a rookie defenseman for the Buffalo Sabres, a total he has never matched. van Riemsdyk was an obvious talent and would record his first 20-goal season the following year, but after a disappointing 43-game season in 2011-12 he found himself on the way to the Toronto Maple Leafs by way of trade. The Flyers would receive 2008 fifth-overall pick Luke Schenn, who had stepped directly into the NHL and was seen as a potential star shutdown defender.

Things didn’t quite work out that way for Schenn, but van Riemsdyk quickly morphed into a top goal-scoring threat for the Maple Leafs. In six years with Toronto the winger recorded 154 goals in 413 games, topping out with 36 in 2017-18. He found his way back to Philadelphia as a free agent last summer, and put up another 27-goal effort in just 66 games. In all, van Riemsdyk ranks sixth among 2007 draftees with 228 goals in his 675-game career and looks like he still has several years of top productivity left. While he hasn’t been the superstar that Kane turned into, he certainly wasn’t a bust with the second overall pick.

That doesn’t mean he was the best available pick though.

With the second pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Philadelphia Flyers select? Cast your vote below!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

Minor Transactions: 07/31/19

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As July comes to a close and we get closer to the end of arbitration hearings and contract holdouts, teams continue to fill our their organizational depth charts. Here are some minor moves from around the league. We’ll keep updating as more come in:

  • Legendary Texas Stars forward Travis Morin has decided to retire from his playing career and take a job in the team’s front office. Morin’s #23 will be the first number retired by the team in a ceremony scheduled for October 19. The 35-year old forward played in just 13 NHL games but suited up 778 times in the AHL, scoring 625 points. 773 of those AHL games and all but one point came in a Texas uniform. In 2014 he was named regular season and playoff MVP en route to a Calder Cup with the Stars.
  • The Cleveland Monsters have signed Anton Karlsson to a one-year AHL contract. The 26-year old defenseman has played the last five seasons in the SHL, recording his best offensive output—13 points—in 2018-19. Undrafted, Karlsson will get a chance to show what he can do on North American ice and try to work his way towards an NHL contract down the road.
  • Selected 35th overall in the CHL Import Draft, Ville Ottavainen is on his way to the Kitchener Rangers. The 16-year old defenseman has signed with the OHL club and will play on their blue line next season. Ottavainen recorded 34 points in 49 games in his Finnish junior league last season and will try to bring that kind of production to North America. He is eligible for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft.

Vegas Golden Knights Sign Marcus Kallionkieli

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The Vegas Golden Knights have signed forward Marcus Kallionkieli to a three-year entry-level contract. The 18-year old was selected in the fifth round by the Golden Knights last month, and spent last season with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

Kallionkieli was one of the most dangerous players in the USHL early on last season and finished the year with 29 goals and 53 points in just 58 games. A solid rookie season in North America followed his development in Finland where he built a solid skating foundation. The 6’1″ winger is a good finisher around the net but there is still some uncertainty over where his offensive ceiling will eventually land.

Nevertheless the Golden Knights apparently saw enough to sign him right away. It’s unclear where he is going to play next season, but his contract can slide forward twice and not kick in until 2021-22 if he’s not in the NHL. He could end up in the WHL where the Brandon Wheat Kings own his rights after taking him 22nd overall in the recent CHL Import Draft. That seems to make sense as his next landing spot, given the Wheat Kings organization is owned by Vegas executive Kelly McCrimmon.

Samuel Girard Signs Seven-Year Extension

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The Colorado Avalanche have locked up one of their young defensemen before he ever gets close to restricted free agency. Samuel Girard has signed a seven-year extension which will keep him under contract through the 2026-27 season. Girard is on the final year of his entry-level contract currently. PuckPedia reports that the deal will carry a $5MM salary in each year with no signing bonuses, and includes a nine-team no-trade clause the final three seasons.

While it is easy to see how much skill Girard possesses, this contract does come with its fair share of risk for the Avalanche. The 21-year old defenseman was acquired as part of the Matt Duchene trade in 2017 and has played 150 games for Colorado so far in his young career. He has just 47 points in those games including 27 last season despite getting ample powerplay time and averaging close to 20 minutes a game. The undersized puck-mover has tremendous skating ability and offensive upside, but hasn’t quite been able to reach the lofty expectations put on him when he came over from the Nashville Predators.

Still, there’s reason to be excited for the Avalanche. He turned 21 just over two months ago and has already proven he can at worst be a capable middle-pairing defender on a playoff team. If the offense does ever click or if he continues to develop in his own end a $5MM cap hit could be a bargain down the line. The deal buys out three unrestricted free agent seasons and takes him to age-29, essentially covering his entire prime at a fixed salary. That kind of cost certainty is valuable, especially for a team like Colorado that has so much uncertainty still to come. Mikko Rantanen is still unsigned and could be looking at a huge contract, while others like Cale Makar and Tyson Jost will need new deals down the line. Even captain Gabriel Landeskog only has two years remaining on his current contract, meaning the Avalanche needed some locked in numbers to build around moving forward.

That $5MM cap hit will give Girard something to live up to however and put even more pressure on the young defenseman. With Erik Johnson and Ian Cole out with injuries to start the season there will be huge responsibility placed on Girard and fellow youngster Makar. For a team that expects to compete for the Stanley Cup this season they need Girard to take another step forward in his development.

The contract gives the Avalanche 11 players signed to one-way contracts for the 2020-21 season. They have committed more than $48MM in those deals.

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Linus Ullmark has an arbitration hearing scheduled for Friday and the figures have been submitted from both sides. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that Ullmark has filed for $2.65MM while the Buffalo Sabres only submitted an $800K salary. That’s quite the gap, though it is important to remember that the two sides can still negotiate a new contract up until the hearing (and for a short period afterwards). Unlike other sports, arbitration also does not pick one filing or the other but will determine some sort of middle ground for Ullmark’s next deal.

The 26-year old goaltender was given a chance to establish himself as the top option last season, but still wasn’t able to really take advantage of the opportunity. In 37 games for the Sabres he recorded just a .905 save percentage and 15-14-5 record. A huge part of that is the way the team played down the stretch, losing their early season momentum completely and falling further and further into the familiar territory near the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings. But there were too many nights that Ullmark just wasn’t the kind of difference-making goaltender that he has projected as for the last several years.

Originally selected by the Sabres in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, the 6’4″ Ullmark made a name for himself in Sweden before coming over to North America. In his first professional season on this side of the ocean he ended up having to play in 20 games for the Sabres when they dealt with injury. In those games he showed incredible promise, posting a .913 save percentage. He wouldn’t get that kind of NHL opportunity again until last season.

He will almost certainly not receive anything above $2MM on the arbitration decision, but even a $1.5MM salary would complicate things for the Sabres. The team has two other arbitration hearings on the books for Jake McCabe and Remi Elie but already project to have just $3.1MM in cap space. While there is room to be made in training camp by waiving some of the players who won’t play big roles in the NHL, the Sabres will be spending up to the cap this season and so far have nothing to show for it. After committing $80MM to Jack Eichel in 2017 and $72MM to Jeff Skinner just last month, the team absolutely must start competing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Ullmark could be a huge key to that if he’s given the chance to become the starter, something that Carter Hutton will certainly have something to say about.

Will Butcher Avoids Arbitration

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With the date of an arbitration hearing fast approaching the New Jersey Devils and Will Butcher have settled on a new contract. Butcher has signed a three-year deal with an average annual value of $3.73MM, making his scheduled hearing on Friday no longer necessary. The contract buys out the final three restricted free agent seasons for Butcher, leaving him an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022. The full salary breakdown is as follows:

  • 2019-20: $3.5MM
  • 2020-21: $3.6MM
  • 2021-22: $4.1MM

Butcher, 24, has had an outstanding start to his professional career since signing with the Devils in 2017. After failing to reach an agreement with the Colorado Avalanche following his four-year career at the University of Denver, Butcher instead ended up in New Jersey where there was a more obvious need for a puck-moving defenseman and powerplay specialist. The relatively undersized Butcher ended up scoring 44 points in his rookie season but found himself in an outstanding Calder Trophy class and finished ninth—Mathew Barzal would take the award nearly unanimously after his 85-point rookie performance.

Butcher’s offensive numbers dropped in year two, but his role on the Devils increased and he was given more responsibility at even-strength. Playing a little over 19 minutes a night, he continued to drive play and possession with his skating ability. Always looking for a way to get the puck out of his zone with control, the Devils generate a ton of scoring opportunities when Butcher is on the ice. There are still some questions to be answered in the defensive end, but the team obviously believes the trade off is still one that results in their favor.

For under $4MM, the Devils have locked up one of the league’s most efficient offensive defensemen in his prime. Though they likely would have rather bought out a few UFA seasons, this contract gives them a chance to sink money into other parts of the roster. Butcher for instance has registered the same amount of points over the last two years as Jacob Trouba, who just received a $56MM contract from the New York Rangers. While comparing the two players directly may be a little unfair, there’s good reason to believe that Butcher’s deal can provide quite a bit more excess value over the next three years.

Part of the equation there however is how he will be used moving forward. The Devils just acquired another potential powerplay quarterback in P.K. Subban, who may steal away some time prime minutes with the man advantage. That kind of a player may also lift up Butcher even further at even-strength however, if the team decides to pair them together at any point. In all, the Devils blue line is looking quite strong with other names like Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson logging big minutes.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Jake Gardiner

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While most of the top players in unrestricted free agency signed quickly, that has not been the case for Jake Gardiner.  While he was viewed as arguably the top defenseman available (once Erik Karlsson re-signed with San Jose in June), his market has seemingly been slow to develop.

In an appearance on his podcast for TalkNorth (audio link), Michael Russo of The Athletic provided an update on Gardiner’s situation.  Beyond his initial asking price, some teams were concerned over the fact that he opted to not have surgery to fix his back issue, instead opting for rest and rehab.  Knowing that the potential exists for him to eventually need to go under the knife is a possible red flag when you’re pondering committing a long-term deal.

Nonetheless, he reports that Gardiner may already know his next destination, suggesting that there is handshake deal in place at this time.  However, the team signing him needs to make a trade (likely a high-priced defender) in order to clear out the cap space to move him.

While he’s coming off of a down season offensively that saw him record just three goals, he’s only one year removed from recording 52 points and as we’ve seen, players that are capable of putting up that type of production are getting big contracts.  Accordingly, our projection for him before free agency opened up was a five-year, $32MM deal, a sizable raise on his previous contract worth $4.05MM.

Although it’s easy to say that all a team needs to do is clear out a sizable contract to make room for him, it’s often trickier to actually pull it off.  Quite a few teams are already over the Upper Limit (or project to be over once they fill out their roster) and there are only so many teams with the budget space and willingness to take on a big-ticket deal.  On the flip side, defensemen are often in demand so there may be more trade options compared to a team trying to move out a forward.

While Gardiner may be holding up the rest of the UFA defense market, it appears there could be a resolution in place already.  Now it’s just a matter of waiting to see if the signing team can find a way to clear out a contract.  Considering the slow-moving market when it comes to freeing up money, it may still be a little while yet before the 29-year-old puts pen to paper on his next deal.

Lightning Notes: Point, Domingue, Vasilevskiy

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While the top of the RFA market is basically at a crawl right now, Lightning GM Julien BriseBois told NHL.com’s Corey Long that he’s optimistic that he’ll be able to get center Brayden Point signed by training camp.  Today’s trade of Ryan Callahan to Ottawa certainly gives them some extra flexibility to work with if they decide to try to work out a long-term deal.  However, recent history has suggested that Tampa Bay may be inclined to pursue a bridge contract; BriseBois was quick to point out that anyone that did so received a long-term deal afterwards.  Knowing that they’ll be adding Andrei Vasilevskiy’s long-term extension to the books in 2020-21, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lightning push for a bridge pact with Point to allow them to try to keep as much of the core together as possible over the next couple of seasons.

More from Tampa Bay:

  • The addition of Mike Condon puts Louis Domingue’s future with the team even more in question. With Curtis McElhinney coming in as the new backup, Domingue was already on the outside looking in and Condon’s presence further cements that.  BriseBois indicated to Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) that he has spoken with a few teams about finding a new home for the 27-year-old and that he’s confident a trade will be worked out by training camp.  Domingue, who had a 2.88 GAA with a .908 SV% in 26 games last season, carries a $1.15MM cap hit and will be an unrestricted free agent next summer.
  • While Vasilevskiy certainly could have just gone the arbitration route next summer to get to the open market as soon as possible, his agent Dan Milstein told John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times that going that route was never considered as he wanted to get a long-term deal done as soon as possible and that he was willing to give a bit of a hometown discount to get it done. The 25-year-old signed an eight-year, $76MM deal on Monday, giving him the third-highest AAV among netminders in the league when the contract kicks in next July.

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