The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent
Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?
After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.
So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.
So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.
Capitals Activate Burakovsky From LTIR
Andre Burakovsky, sidelined since February 9th with a hand injury, has been activated from LTIR by the Washington Capitals and is expected to be in the lineup tonight as the team travels to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning, reports Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post.
The 22-year-old winger was injured blocking a shot by Brendan Smith during a game against Detroit and has missed the last 15 contests as a result. On the season, Burakovsky has tallied 11 goals with 18 assists in 52 games while posting a +15 plus/minus rating. In 184 career regular season contests, the Capitals 2013 first-round pick has netted 37 goals and 89 points.
Burakovsky’s return was expected following the team’s reassignment of rookie forward Jakub Vrana to Hershey of the AHL. That transaction left the Capitals with just 11 healthy forwards and suggested that Burakovsky was on the verge of a return.
Vrana has appeared in 21 contests for Washington during his freshman campaign and has tallied three goals and three helpers. The 21-year-old winger was chosen in the first round of the 2014 entry draft by Washington and is considered to be one of the team’s top prospects. For now he heads to Hershey, where he will provide the Bears with an offensive jolt. In 36 AHL games this season, Vrana has 14 goals and 26 points and should help Hershey in their quest to lock up a playoff spot.
Lightning Recall Joel Vermin From Syracuse
Update (11:00am CST): Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times relays word from Lightning bench boss Jon Cooper that Palat is indeed ready to go and will be in the lineup tonight. Subsequently, Vermin has been returned to Syracuse, according to this tweet from the Elite Prospects Twitter account. It would seem then that Vermin was up as a potential emergency recall as it’s unlikely he would have been reassigned to the AHL immediately upon word Palat was healthy enough to play had the team exercised one of its four recalls.
8:45am CST: The Tampa Bay Lightning have announced the call-up of winger Joel Vermin from their AHL affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch. Bryan Burns, who covers the club for the team’s official website, added via Twitter the recall was necessary due to Ondrej Palat being banged up and questionable for tonight’s tilt against the Washington Capitals. Again according to Burns, Palat’s status should be made more clear following the team’s morning skate.
Vermin is one of several players the Lightning have had to shuttle back-and-forth between the big club and the Crunch in a season mired by injuries. In 11 appearances on the year, the 25-year-old winger has registered three points, all assists, to go with two penalty minutes while averaging 11;20 of ice time per game. The Swiss-born Vermin was originally a seventh-round draft selection by Tampa Bay in 2013 and has turned in a solid campaign for Syracuse with 12 goals and 28 points in 43 games for the Crunch.
The Lightning, despite selling assets at the trade deadline, have managed to sneak back into the playoff race and are currently just one point behind the Toronto Maple Leafs for the final Eastern Conference wild card slot. Already without centers Cedric Paquette and Tyler Johnson, both out of action since March 9th, the Tampa may also have to make do without the versatile Palat, who has 14 goals and 36 points on the season.
All told, 2016-17 has been a disappointing year for the Lightning, who were expected to be among the league’s elite teams and a Stanley Cup contender. Injuries to key players, including a significant knee injury which sidelined team captain Steven Stamkos back in November, have been a major factor in the club’s struggles but a surprising run which has seen the team accumulate 27 standings points over the last 18 contests has provided hope the Lightning will overcome and make the postseason. Should they do so, the Lightning would be a team no one wants to face, particularly with Stamkos eyeing a return to the lineup.
Morning Notes: Vrana, Burakovsky, Josephs
The Hershey Bears are in a dog fight for a playoff position in the AHL, and they’re going to get some help. The Washington Capitals have sent Jakub Vrana back to Hershey where he will be a welcome addition for this weekend when they will play back-to-back-to-back games Friday through Sunday. With three teams tied at 77 points in the Atlantic Division, this weekend will mostly likely decide the Bears fate.
Vrana has spent this season split between the two clubs, scoring 26 goals in 36 games at the minor league level. The former 13th-overall pick has excellent scoring ability and has proven it since coming over from the Swedish leagues in 2015. Last spring, he contributed 14 points in 21 playoff games as the Bears went all the way to the Calder Cup finals.
- Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press thinks that Vrana’s demotion means good things for Andre Burakovsky in regards to Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Burakovsky has missed almost six weeks with a hand injury but is scheduled to rejoin practice fully today. The team will welcome him back, as they’ve lost five of their last six games and just barely hold their grip on the Metropolitan Division.
- The Penguins have signed another college prospect, but this time to an AHL contract. Troy Josephs of Clarkson University has inked a minor league deal for the 2017-18 season, and will join the WBS Penguins on an amateur deal for the rest of this year. Josephs was a seventh-round pick of the Penguins back in 2013, but decided to head to Clarkson for the full four years. Now that he’s graduated, he’ll join the pro ranks and try to continue his scoring dominance. This year saw him score 20 goals and 33 points in just 37 games, playing often with Sam Vigneault, the newest Columbus Blue Jacket.
- Carolina will send Lucas Wallmark back to the AHL after just three games. The 21-year old forward made his NHL debut this week, and even scored his first point. With 39 points in 59 games in his rookie year at the AHL level, the ‘Canes look like they’ve found a gem in the fourth round. The 97th overall pick in 2014, he’s one of only two players from that round to register a point in the NHL—the other, Viktor Arvidsson, has 67, including 51 this season.
Snapshots: USA Hockey, Vecchione, DeMelo
After several members of the US Women’s National Team extended a message to USA Hockey about their boycotting the upcoming World Championships, the national program released its own statement on the subject. Understanding the frustration of the women who are reportedly given just $6000 each for their Olympic training and participation, USA Hockey stated that they have long supported their female athletes.
The support USA Hockey is implementing in order to prepare the Women’s National Team for the 2018 Winter Olympic Games includes a six-month training camp, additional support stipends and incentives for medals that could result in each player receiving nearly $85,000 in cash over the Olympic training and performance period. The sum is in addition to a housing allowance, travel allowances, meal expenses, medical and disability insurance and the infrastructure that includes elite-level support staff to train and prepare the players.
The statement goes on to explain that the organization was “disappointed” in the player’s demands and will continue to keep dialogue open in hopes they’ll play in April. The players shot back at the release, with captain Meghan Duggan telling Bob McKenzie of TSN it was “incredibly dishonest and misleading”. As McKenzie notes, the two sides seem ready for a battle over their compensation leading up to next year’s Olympics.
- After the Pittsburgh Penguins added Zach Aston-Reese yesterday, the Philadelphia Flyers are hoping for some help from the college ranks of their own. Sam Carchidi of The Inquirer opines that the team may have interest in both Spencer Foo and Mike Vecchione of Union College. The team is familiar with the school from the years Shayne Gostisbehere spent there, including one season with Vecchione in 2013-14. The pair of undrafted forwards are among the highest scoring in the NCAA, with 59 and 62 points respectively. If the Flyers want to keep pace with what has been a busy Metropolitan Division—the Capitals also inked a couple of forwards earlier this month—they would do well with Vecchione. The 24-year old senior is considered by some even better than Aston-Reese, and ready to step into the NHL right away. Anyone will have to wait for Union’s season to be over though, as they’re still alive in the ECAC playoffs.
- Kevin Kurz of CSN reports that David Schlemko rejoined his teammates in practice today for the first time in nearly two weeks. The defenseman is getting close to a return, but Dylan DeMelo has used the opportunity to show that he’s ready for an NHL role. DeMelo tells Kurz that getting back into the lineup is “definitely a lot better playing than sitting out for seven weeks. I’m just happy to be back in the lineup and [helping] the team win.” DeMelo had surgery to repair a broken wrist in January and only returned to the lineup on March 5th.
Injury Notes: Scandella, Tkachuk, Leighton
The Minnesota Wild came limping out of their matchup with the Washington Capitals last night in more ways than one. Michael Russo of the Star Tribune reports that Marco Scandella was absent from the team’s practice today after being seen favoring one leg after the game. If the Wild defenseman can’t go, Russo points to Mike Reilly as the potential replacement.
Reilly has been playing in Iowa for the past month after suiting up for 17 games with the Wild this season. The 23-year old has had a nice season in the AHL this year, recording 23 points in 41 games. The Wild are back at it tomorrow against the Carolina Hurricanes as they continue to battle for first place in the Western Conference.
- Matthew Tkachuk will be a game time decision at tonight’s Calgary Flames game, as he is battling a lower-body injury and was held out of practice according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet. The rookie winger has 44 points in 65 games this season and most other years would be a runaway winner of the Calder Trophy. Tkachuk was the #6 draft pick this past June, and has already made an impact for the playoff-bound Flames.
- Michael Stone is progressing according to Steinberg, who reports that he’ll go through a full practice tomorrow and be re-evaluated on Friday. The big defender was acquired at the deadline to help lengthen out the Flames blue line, but was injured in last week’s game against the Montreal Canadiens.
- Former NHL goaltender Michael Leighton requires surgery and will be out for at least four to six weeks. Though it would have been a big blow for the Charlotte Checkers, the team acquired Tom McCollum at the deadline for just this situation. The AHL squad will now go after a playoff spot—which is very much in doubt as they lag behind Reilly and the Iowa Wild—with their newest addition instead of the veteran Leighton.
Pittsburgh Penguins Recall Josh Archibald From AHL
The Pittsburgh Penguins may have another young winger ready to make an impact for them down the stretch. Today they called up Josh Archibald from the AHL prior to their game against the Calgary Flames tonight. The Penguins are on a five game winning streak and just a point behind the Metropolitan-leading Washington Capitals for first place in the entire NHL.
Archibald is a 24-year old winger who was selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. After completing—and dominating in—three seasons at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, Archibald has steadily climbed through the ranks of the Penguins’ minor league system. Earlier this year he played two games for Pittsburgh, scoring two goals in a February 11th overtime loss against Arizona. Amazingly, he has scored on each of the only two shots he’s taken during his three game NHL career.
As Pittsburgh has shown over the years with the emergence of Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary, the team isn’t afraid to put young players into key roles during a playoff stretch. After seasoning them at the AHL level, they can find ways to let them impact the game without exposing their inexperience. While Archibald isn’t guaranteed to play that role for the Penguins this season, his ability to penalty kill and play a solid defensive game may lend itself to some fourth-line minutes down the stretch and into the postseason.
Kevin Shattenkirk Suspended Two Games
2:15 pm: Shattenkirk has been suspended for two games, the NHL Department of Player Safety announced (video link). He will miss the games against the Ducks and Wild and will be eligible to return to the lineup on Thursday. Shattenkirk will forfeit a little over $47K in salary as a result of the suspension.
11:59 am: Following last night’s Capitals-Kings contest, NHL Player Safety announced that Washington defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk would have a disciplinary hearing over the phone with league officials following his charge against Los Angeles defender Kevin Gravel. With the Capitals in California on a west coast trip and scheduled to play the Anaheim Ducks tonight, the league acted quickly to schedule the hearing and is expected to make a swift decision prior to puck drop. This is Shattenkirk’s first career disciplinary review and the first for any Capitals player this season.
In the game, a 4-2 Kings win, Shattenkirk was called for a charge late in the third period after a check on Gravel and was given a minor two-minute penalty. Shattenkirk swung around the L.A. net as Gravel played the puck and, after the pass had been made, followed through on his hit, seemingly launching himself shoulder-first at the head area of Gravel. Gravel hit the boards and then fell to the ice, before exiting the ice and heading to the locker room for the short remainder of the game. There has been no word on whether or not Gravel suffered a head injury or other impairment as a result of the impact.
Shattenkirk, the prize of the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline, has played well since he was acquired on February 27th, recording four assists and over 20 minutes of ice time a night in six games. However, the Capitals have not been so lucky in that time. The NHL points-leaders are just .500 with Shattenkirk in the fold, having won their first three games after he was acquired, but then losing their last three. This recent stretch is the first time all season that the team has lost three games in a row in regulation time, and face a significant threat of dropping their fourth straight tonight in Anaheim, especially if Shattenkirk is out of the lineup. The Capitals may wrap up this tough west coast road trip tonight, but that doesn’t necessarily mean things will get right back on track, as they host the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators upon their return to D.C.. The team would again greatly benefit from having Shattenkirk, a player with knowledge of Central Division competition, in the lineup for those contests. A suspension seems likely based on the visuals of the hit, but anything longer than a game or two may be a stretch. However, we won’t know for sure until the hearing later on today. Stay tuned.
Fifteen Teams Interested In Zach Aston-Reese
The season of college free agents is upon us, as we’ve seen several names already go to teams around the league. When the Washington Capitals signed Kristofers Bindulis and Hampus Gustafsson, the frenzy was on. Today, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News reports that as many as 15 teams have shown interest in Northeastern’s Zach Aston-Reese. 
The juggernaut of a winger has been dominating the college scene all year, scoring 30 goals and 62 points through 36 games in his senior season. Already 22, Aston-Reese uses his physicality and strength to create room for himself and teammates, scoring goals mostly from the front of the net on rebounds and tips. His game is almost pro-ready as he likely won’t ever move past a team’s bottom-six at the next level.
Like with any other college free agent, he does come with his share of weaknesses. His foot speed has long been an issue, and may be exposed at the professional level against other players who are just as strong as him. He lacks the high-level creativity that scouts look for, but makes up for it with work ethic and body positioning. In a stationary battle he’s as good as anyone in the college ranks right now, but that won’t be true when he suddenly has to take on fully-grown men.
There is upside however, as with an NHL skating coach he could get that extra jump to help him keep up and his shot release is already fairly quick. Likely he’ll be looked at to add immediate depth to an AHL squad and NHL bottom-six, with the opportunity at some point to see some powerplay time if his net-front play continues.
He does play with several prospects from around the league, even skating full-time with Blues’ prospect Nolan Stevens (when he has been healthy). Adam Gaudette and Dylan Sikura—of Vancouver and Chicago respectively—also spend time with Aston-Reese, and are each better than point-per-game players for Northeastern. It will be interesting to see if one of these teams brings on the big winger, as they would be very familiar with him.
Washington Capitals Sign Kristofers Bindulis, Hampus Gustafsson
The Washington Capitals have snapped up two interesting college free agents today, signing Kristofers Bindulis and Hampus Gustafsson to entry-level contracts. The two have signed for three and two years respectively, beginning with the 2017-18 season. Bindulis was rumored recently to be on the radar of several teams around the league. Both players will report to the Hershey Bears of the AHL on tryout agreements for the remainder of the season.
Bindulis was at the Capitals’ development camp last summer, of which he told Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post “I really enjoyed my time over there.” The 6’3″ defenseman has started to fill out into his big frame and should get a chance to play with the Bears as they try to make it into the post-season. In this his freshman year at Lake Superior State, Bindulis registered 12 points in 28 games.
It’s Gustafsson that may be even more interesting than Bindulis however, as the 23-year old forward is a finalist for the Hobey Baker award and has been a consistent scoring threat during his four years at Merrimack College. Gustafsson uses his huge frame (6’4″, 200-lbs) to fight for every inch of the ice, and can be a dominant net-front presence on the powerplay. While there are questions about the games of both players—like there are with any unproven young talent—both have some upside and a shot at making the NHL one day. First though they’ll test themselves in their first taste of professional hockey in the AHL.