Lightning Rumors

The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.

The Lightning have been consistently strong for more than a decade now and this season was no exception with a solid third-place finish in the Eastern Conference.  However, they were ousted in the first round of the playoffs for the third straight year.  GM Julien BriseBois now has some work to do to reshape his roster but with very limited salary cap flexibility, their checklist is focused more on the back half of the roster.

Clear Sheary’s Contract

Finding cap space has long been an issue for the Lightning and today’s six-year, $14MM extension given to Yanni Gourde only further cements that although it also took the biggest to-do item off the original version of this list.  Now, the team has less than $3.5MM in flexibility, per PuckPedia, the lowest amount of cap space of any team in the league.  With multiple roster spots to fill and a likely desire to keep at least a little bit of flexibility for in-season roster movement or injury insurance, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to work with.

One thing that BriseBois could try to do to create a bit of spending space revolves around Conor Sheary.  Signed to a three-year, $6MM contract two years ago, that deal simply hasn’t worked out as planned.  After scoring just four goals in 57 games in his first season with the Lightning, the 32-year-old cleared waivers and spent all but five games this year with AHL Syracuse.  While he was better than a point per game player there, that’s not a great return on a $2MM AAV overall.

Sheary has one year left on his contract at that price tag and at this point, he feels like a speculative candidate to be sent back to the Crunch if he’s still on the roster come training camp.  Doing that would clear $1.15MM off their books.  When you consider that $775K of that (at a minimum) would need to be spent on a replacement player on the roster, that wouldn’t save them much.  Meanwhile, a buyout would cost $1MM this season and $500K in 2026-27.  Again, by the time you factor in a replacement player, the savings are minimal at best.  Trading with retention doesn’t open up a lot of room either.

However, if they could find a way to clear the contract outright, that would free up much more money, even accounting for a minimum-salaried replacement player.  Doing that would give the Lightning an extra $1.225MM in space.  They’d still have the lowest cap space in the league but at least a little more flexibility.  Of course, that would require parting with an asset on a team that’s not exactly flush with draft picks and prospects to get a team to take on that final year but with them being this limited cap-wise, it’s a move they’d be wise to make.

Find A Howard Trade

What a difference a few months can make sometimes.  In the case of prospect Isaac Howard, the difference was quite substantial.  A 2022 first-round pick, he didn’t get off to the best start to his college career but after transferring to Michigan State, things started looking up.  And then he found an entirely new gear offensively this season, notching 26 goals and 26 assists in just 37 games, good for fifth overall in Division I scoring, earning him the Hobey Baker Award along the way.  All season long, the expectation was that he’d wrap up his college career early and sign with the Lightning to play down the stretch and potentially in the playoffs.

However, as his college season came to an end, there was no contract in place for Howard.  Part of that was Tampa Bay’s cap situation as their deadline activity left it to the point where they’d only be able to sign him with a couple of days left in the season.  Before it got to that point, he indicated he’d be returning for his senior year, a move that few saw coming.  By the end of the playoffs, BriseBois all but confirmed that they won’t be able to sign Howard.

As a result, he instantly becomes Tampa Bay’s most prominent trade chip this offseason.  They don’t necessarily have to move him as in theory, he could have a change of heart over the next year although that doesn’t seem likely at this point.  They could also opt not to move him and accept the compensatory pick for not signing him, which would be the 31st pick of the second round in 2027 (63rd overall).  But that doesn’t seem like a fair return for one of the top players in the NCAA, making the possibility of a trade more likely.

Assuming that the acquiring team wants to get him to reverse his commitment to return for his senior year, that means that finding a trade this offseason makes the most sense.  The Lightning could go in any direction with a move – look for a piece that helps them now, a prospect closer to being NHL-ready that has plenty of team control, or even draft picks and unsigned prospects to keep or use as trade chips down the road.  Whichever one they pick, it feels like that move should be coming relatively soon.

Add Defensive Depth

Considering the dearth of right-shot defense options available in free agency this summer, it feels like close to a foregone conclusion that Nick Perbix is going to price himself out of what Tampa Bay can afford to pay him unless he takes less than market value or BriseBois is able to open up some flexibility somewhere.  That means at least one spot on the roster is up for grabs.

Internally, there are a couple of options for the Lightning.  Maxwell Crozier has seen a bit of NHL action the last couple of years and had a strong showing with Syracuse this season and could be in line for a more permanent promotion.  Alternatively, offseason signing Charle-Edouard D’Astous has had two strong years offensively overseas so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 27-year-old get at least a look in training camp.

But that’s not a lot of depth to work with.  At a minimum, they’ll want to bring in a couple of veterans for the Crunch with some NHL experience in case injuries arise.  As things stand, both Derrick Pouliot and Steven Santini are set to become unrestricted free agents next month so they’ll need to be re-signed or replaced.  But finding a blueliner or two willing to sign for the league minimum with a shot at battling for a seventh spot on the roster would be their best option.

Upgrade Bottom Six Depth

One thing the Lightning have had to do in recent years is sign several veteran forwards on minimum-salary contracts.  It was borne out of necessity with their top-heavy spending and they did the best they could out of the players willing to take early deals at a $775K (or close) price tag.  Zemgus Girgensons, Luke Glendening, and Cam Atkinson are recent examples of those.  It’s likely they’ll try to get pending RFA Gage Goncalves signed in around that range as well.

While those players were all serviceable to varying degrees, there was a reason that Tampa Bay was often a two-line team with a third line that could chip in from time to time; the fourth line was largely there to try to play to a scoreless draw when they were on the ice.  It’s an easier said than done idea but upgrading on that level of talent on the open market would certainly help the cause.  In particular, finding some extra grit in one or two of those signings would probably be worthwhile.

BriseBois has tried to work early in free agency with these types of pickups.  While it would be riskier, waiting until closer to training camp when the asking prices of some unsigned players might come down might be able to net them a better caliber of signing.  It’s picking at the margins here but with most of the heavy lifting done already, working on the margins might be all that’s realistically left for Tampa Bay in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of Nick King/Lansing State Journal.