Tampa Bay Lightning News & Rumors

With training camps now less than a month away, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.

Last summer, the Lightning made a big splash, adding Jake Guentzel while parting ways with longtime franchise icon Steven Stamkos among their series of moves.  This time around, GM Julien BriseBois has been much more tempered with his roster movement, opting to work on the fringes while keeping a key trade deadline acquisition in the fold.

Draft

2-56 – F Ethan Czata, Niagara (OHL)
4-108 – F Benjamin Rautiainen, Tappara (Liiga)
4-127 – F Aiden Foster, Prince George (WHL)
5-151 – D Everett Baldwin, St. George’s (USHS-RI)
7-193 – G Caleb Heil, Madison (USHL)
7-206 – F Roman Luttsev, Yaroslavl (MHL)
7-212 – D Grant Spada, Guelph (OHL)
7-215 – F Marco Mignosa, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

The Lightning managed a surprisingly stout draft class despite little in the way of pick value. Their class is full of interesting skill and projectable upside, housed within a shell of unrefined skills and clear areas for growth. Czata stands as the true playmaker of the bunch and earns the highest pick as a result. He’s a heads-up center who plays the low-zone well on both ends of the ice. He already has the frame and muscle to work his way to a pro build, but will need to compliment it with improved skating before he can boom at the pro level.

The Lightning reeled in a line of upside picks behind the projectable Czata. Rautiainen was in his final year of draft eligibility, but earned a selection after netting an impressive 37 points in 58 Liiga games last season. He’s an upside bet who could translate to North America soon. Foster is the bruiser of the bunch, having already racked up 260 penalty minutes in just two WHL seasons. Baldwin was seen as a true draft gem in NHL circles, with some New England scouts praising him as a second-round talent at his peak. He’s a nifty, fast-moving defender with the ability to drive play and throw big hits – though he hasn’t yet had a chance at the top level. He’ll get his first in a move to the QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs this season.

The Bolts had to save their energy for a busy seventh-round. They landed a very well-rounded bunch for their effort. It features the flashy athleticism of goaltender Heil, downhill offense of center Luttsev, heavy hitting of defender Spada, incremental, all-around improvement of Mignosa. All four players show flashes of upside as true NHL hopefuls, even despite having to wait until the final picks to hear their name called.

Trade Acquisitions

F Sam O’Reilly (trade with Edmonton)

After Isaac Howard decided that he didn’t want to sign with the Lightning, he immediately because their top trade chip.  They elected not to move him at the deadline but found a viable one-for-one prospect swap that saw him flipped for another late first-round selection.  O’Reilly isn’t NHL-ready like Howard is but he plays the more premium position as a natural center and produced over a point-per-game in both the regular season and playoffs with OHL London.  Already signed to his entry-level deal, he could be in the mix for NHL ice time as soon as 2026-27.

UFA Signings

F Nicholas Abruzzese (one year, $775K)*
F Tristan Allard (two years, $1.745MM)*
G Ryan Fanti (one year, $775K)*
F Gage Goncalves (two years, $2.4MM)^
F Yanni Gourde (six years, $14MM)^
F Pontus Holmberg (two years, $3.1MM)
F Boris Katchouk (one year, $775K)*
D Simon Lundmark (two years, $1.55MM)*
F Jakob Pelletier (three years, $2.325MM)
F Scott Sabourin (one year, $775K)*
D Steven Santini (two years, $1.55MM)*^

*-denotes two-way contract
^-denotes re-signing

BriseBois paid a high price to acquire Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand at the trade deadline so it made sense that he’d try to keep Gourde in the fold.  Few expected him to sign a six-year deal at the age of 33, however.  That’s a long contract for someone that age but the trade-off is a cap charge that is well below what he likely would have received in free agency in a market that had few centers of significance.  Gourde is coming off a pretty quiet season by his standards but he was impactful after the trade, notching 14 points in 21 games.  If he comes anywhere close to this, he’s going to be a nice bargain in the early going of this deal and really help bolster their bottom six, an area of need for a while now.

Speaking of bottom-six pickups, both Holmberg and Pelletier qualify.  Holmberg had his first full NHL season last year with Toronto, playing somewhat regularly on their fourth line during the regular season and in the playoffs.  He doesn’t bring a lot of offensive upside to the table but it’s still an improvement on what Tampa Bay’s fourth line provided last season while he could help a bit on the penalty kill as well.  Pelletier cleared waivers to start last season but wound up getting into 49 NHL games between Calgary and Philadelphia.  A 2019 first-round pick, it doesn’t appear as if he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing but he should have a chance to secure a regular spot on that fourth line and, like Holmberg, give it perhaps a bit more offensive upside as well.

Goncalves was able to establish himself as a regular for the most part with the Lightning last season but Tampa Bay wanted nothing to do with arbitration, opting to non-tender him before re-signing him in early July at a price tag higher than what his qualifying offer was.  Last season, he cleared waivers twice.  That’s probably not going to be an option this time around.  Abruzzeze has had some good offensive success in the minors with Toronto but hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity, allowing him to reach Group Six free agency.  He’ll be in tough to lock down a full-time spot with the Lightning but he could be a good candidate for a midseason recall.

RFA Re-Signings

D Maxwell Crozier (three years, $2.325MM)*
F Jack Finley (three years, $2.325MM)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Most of Tampa Bay’s contract work was done before the summer came along so there wasn’t much to do here.  Crozier and Finley signed identical contracts, deals that will carry a two-way salary this season before converting to one-way pacts for the other two (at rates that will be increased due to the changes to the minimum salary in the CBA).  Crozier could have a shot at earning a seventh defenseman role with the Lightning this season while Finley – who made his NHL debut last season – is ticketed for regular minutes with AHL Syracuse once again.

Departures

D Anthony Angello (unsigned)
F Cam Atkinson (unsigned)
D Derrick Pouliot (signed with Rangers, one year, $775K)*
F Gabriel Fortier (signed with Leksand, SHL)
F Logan Brown (signed with Los Angeles, one year, $775K)*
F Luke Glendening (unsigned)
F Isaac Howard (trade with Edmonton)
D Tobie Paquette-Bisson (signed with Laval, AHL)
D Nicklaus Perbix (signed with Nashville, two years, $5.5MM)
F Conor Sheary (contract termination, signed a PTO with Rangers)
F Simon Ryfors (RFA rights lost, signed with Davos, NL)
G Matt Tomkins (signed with Edmonton, two years, $1.55MM)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Despite a large list of names to leave the organization, the Lightning and GM Julien BriseBois did a good job of not losing anyone of significance. Perbix, 27, is coming off of a nice season to earn a solid two-year deal with the Predators. In 74 games, Perbix put up 19 points while averaging 14:41 of ice time per night. Perhap the biggest departure came in the form of Howard, who never actually suited up in Tampa Bay. Following the trade, the Oilers announced Howard has signed a three-year, entry-level contract beginning in 2025-26.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Lightning are projected to have a little under $1.2MM in cap space for next season, per PuckPedia, and that’s with a 23-player roster.  That’s a luxury they haven’t been able to afford too often in recent years and if they elect not to operate with that to start the season, they could wind up opening up nearly $2MM below the cap ceiling.  That’s a much cleaner spot to be in compared to where they’ve been at times over the last few seasons.

Key Questions

Can Geekie Lock Down A Key Role? One of the wild cards for Tampa Bay this season is forward Conor Geekie.  A key piece of the return in the trade that saw defenseman Mikhail Sergachev go to Utah at the draft last year, the 2022 11th overall pick broke camp with the Lightning last year but played a relatively minor role overall, only playing more than 15 minutes in four of his 52 games while only collecting 14 points.  In February, the decision was made to let him go to Syracuse and he was much more successful with the Crunch, notching 11 goals and 20 points in 24 games, earning a late-season recall and some playoff time.  If Geekie can truly lock down a full-time spot on the third line, a step forward from him coupled with their bottom-six additions could really help shore up what was one of their biggest weaknesses last season.

Will The Lightning Do Any Early Extensions? Over the years, BriseBois has often elected to sign his pending free agents a year early and avoid any potential distractions of having a player in his walk year.  (Stamkos, their former captain, was a rare notable exception.)  There is a trio of veterans who could be candidates to sign new deals.  Bjorkstrand has reached at least 20 goals in six of the last seven seasons, making him a reliably consistent secondary scoring option that should land more than his current $5.4MM price tag on the open market so working to sign him now makes some sense.  Meanwhile, on the back end, veteran Ryan McDonagh and J.J. Moser are both extension-eligible as well.  McDonagh is unlikely to command the $6.75MM cap cost that he currently has but there is likely mutual interest in seeing him stick around in a mentoring capacity for another year or two.  As for Moser, his first season with the Lightning after coming over in the Sergachev trade was a little quieter than expected but he’s still expected to be a top-four piece for them for the foreseeable future.  If they’re confident he can rebound, looking to sign him now when his value might be a little lower would be a wise move.

Can They Match Last Season’s Offensive Production? The Lightning led the NHL in regular season goals last season (292), good for a 3.56 goals per game. The team is returning its core offensive threats, so can it make another push toward the top of the offensive rankings? The answer likely hinges on whether it can replicate last season’s power play success, when it ranked fifth in the league with a 25.9 percent conversion rate. That efficiency was complemented by impressive even-strength production, as the team finished third in the league in even-strength goals, trailing only the Washington Capitals and, perhaps surprisingly, the Columbus Blue Jackets. If Nikita Kucherov can produce something close to last season’s 121 points, and players like Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, and Brayden Point continue to produce at a point-per-game rate, the Lightning should once again find themselves near the top of the league in goals per game and in a strong position to contend heading into the playoffs.

Photos courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

PHR’s Gabriel Foley and Paul Griser also contributed to this post.