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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

Erik Karlsson To Miss At Least The Next Two Games

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The Sharks will be without defenseman Erik Karlsson for at least the next two games, notes Jon Williams of NBC Sports Bay Area.  The veteran is dealing with another groin injury though it’s not believed to be related to his previous groin injuries.  Nevertheless, head coach Bob Boughner indicated yesterday to reporters, including Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News, that Karlsson’s injury is a nagging one that he had been playing through.  However, with just four assists in 13 games this season, it’s certainly fair to wonder if the veteran would be better served by sitting for a little while and trying to come back at full strength.  With a record-setting $11.5MM AAV, San Jose needs much more offense than they’ve received from Karlsson thus far and perhaps this groin issue is at least partially to blame.

Minor Transactions: 02/08/21

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The AHL (at least most of its teams) has now joined the NHL in a new season, but there are still plenty of moves being made in the minors as teams solidify their lineups for the new campaign. Of course, many of those who were not successful in securing a contract in the NHL or AHL continue to find work overseas, while other are returning to juniors. Keep up with all of the minor moves made today right here:

  • A pair of veterans have been successful with AHL tryouts in Pennsylvania. Tim Schaller has earned a spot with the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, per a league release, while Chris Mueller will be back in the AHL for a 13th consecutive season as the Lehigh Valley Phantoms announced a one-year deal. Schaller, 30, had been an NHL regular for several years before last season, when his lack of production for the Vancouver Canucks finally caught up with him and he was traded to the Los Angeles Kings and subsequently demoted. Schaller has been an effective fourth liner in the past and will look to earn his way back to the NHL with a strong season in the minors. Mueller, 34, is likely beyond an NHL comeback at this point, having not played in the league since 2014-15, but the decorated AHLer is only a couple seasons away from cracking the league’s top 20 in all-time games played.
  • An intriguing prospect has signed on with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. Pavel Gogolev, fresh off of a 96-point season in the OHL last year, has returned to Ontario to join the Marlies, according to the AHL’s transactions log. He had been playing with Vasby IK of Sweden’s Allsvenskan to begin the year, but the club confirms that his contract has been terminated. Gogolev, 20, was passed over yet again in the most recent NHL Draft despite finishing sixth overall in OHL scoring last season. Perhaps this was due to his advanced age relative to other draft-eligible prospects or the lack of development in his defensive ability, but there is no doubting that Gogolev has impressive offensive skill and has shown repeatedly that he is committed to North American hockey and pursuing an NHL career. He will take another step closer to that goal this season with AHL Toronto.
  • Blake Pietila is looking to stick around the North American game and has signed a PTO with the Hershey Bears, the team announced. The former New Jersey Devils prospect signed with the Anaheim Ducks for the 2019-20 season, but played exclusively in the AHL despite having set a new career high in NHL appearances the season prior. The hard-working forward is looking for another opportunity to show he can still be an NHL asset and hopes to not only crack the Hershey roster, but carve out a top role as well. Pietila has recorded 142 points in 266 career AHL games, proving himself to be an impact player in the minors.
  • Despite appearing in training camp for the San Jose Barracuda, Sharks prospect Vladislav Kotkov will wait another season to turn pro. The Sharks have reassigned Kotkov to the QMHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs for one final junior campaign, the team announced. The Sea Dogs are certainly happy about the decision; Kotkov was acquired this summer for a pair of draft picks which would have been squandered if he had never suited up for the team. The overage import forward is a big, powerful offensive presence who is sure to make a major impact for Saint John before inevitably doing so for the Barracuda and possibly the Sharks down the road as well.
  • Former NHL journeyman Andrew Ebbett made a career as a hired gun, playing for six different teams over eight seasons but still managing to suit up for 32 games each year on average. However, when his luck in North America ran out in 2015, he made the unlikely discovery of the first long-term home of his career with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA. Ebbett has spent the last five seasons with Bern, the past four of which as a captain and a top-five scoring forward. However, it is time for Ebbett to move on yet again. At 38, he is not ready to call it a career just yet, but has said goodbye to Bern and signed with EHC Munich of the German DEL. Having recently lost other names familiar to NHL fans in Derek Roy and Kalle Kossila, the Red Bulls were excited to land the veteran Ebbett as a replacement for the remainder of the year.

Snapshots: Danault, Simek, Frk

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Montreal Canadiens center Phillip Danault has struggled this season as he is one of just two forwards who have yet to record a goal this season. The 27-year-old is coming off of 53 and 47-point seasons that last two years, but the pending unrestricted free agent reportedly turned down a six-year, $30MM deal during the offseason, according to Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan, and it looks to be weighing on him.

Danault refused to talk about his contract situation Friday, but Cowan said that ice time might play more of a role in his decision-making than money. Danault, who was playing top-six minutes for much of the past two seasons, is now the team’s No. 3 center behind Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

“I needed some time to adapt,” Danault said. “There are a lot of things that changed at the same time, whether it was my ice time or the way I was being used on the penalty-kill. I’m still playing with the same linemates, though. We try to give everything we have every night. I’m ready to do everything I can to help the team win. It’s going really well right now and we’ll keep on going that way.”

  • NHL Player Safety announced that San Jose Sharks defenseman Radim Simek has been fined $5,000 for spearing Anaheim Ducks forward Adam Henrique Saturday (video here). The fine is the most that is allowed by the CBA.The infraction occurred at 6:21 of the second period when the spearing occurred in front of the Sharks’ net. The two players then fought immediately afterwards with both players receiving two-minute penalties for roughing with the spearing getting missed.
  • The Los Angeles Kings could be without forward Martin Frk for some time, according to Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris. While he hasn’t received an update from the team’s training staff, head coach Todd McLellan said that by the look of the injury, he could be “out for a little while.” Frk missed the first nine games of the season with a groin injury and was making his season debut Friday only to be knocked out with another  lower-body injury.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: San Jose Sharks

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We’ve now made it past the holiday season but there is still plenty to be thankful for. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, things are just getting underway. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for with the calendar having now flipped to 2021.

What are the Sharks most thankful for?

Last season, San Jose finished dead last in the Pacific Division but while most teams in that situation could at least take solace in knowing that such a performance would yield a high draft pick, that wasn’t the case as Ottawa held their first-round pick from the Erik Karlsson trade, using it on Tim Stutzle.  This season, they’re not off to the best of starts either (currently sitting in last place in the West Division) but they at least have their first-round selection this time.  After underachieving last year and getting off to a sluggish start this season, there isn’t much to be thankful for in terms of on-ice success but at least they have their top pick in their pocket this time around.

Who are the Sharks most thankful for?

While many of San Jose’s players have underachieved lately, that can’t be said for Tomas Hertl.  After leading all of their forwards in scoring in 2018-19, he produced at a rate that would have been good enough for the team lead had it not been for a knee injury last season.  He has returned without any lingering issues and currently leads the Sharks in scoring in the early going this year.  After starting his career on the wing, Hertl has also successfully transitioned to a full-time center role, giving them a second homegrown fit down the middle with Logan Couture.  Hertl still has this year and next left on what has become a below-market contract with a $5.625MM AAV and will likely be looking for a deal around Couture’s price tag ($8MM) in 2022.

What would the Sharks be even more thankful for?

Karlsson providing a better return for their investment, both in terms of price paid to get him and his contract.  The pick used on Stutzle and Joshua Norris have given Ottawa two potential franchise cornerstones (not to mention the other players they parted with including Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo) while Karlsson hasn’t come close to living up to expectations.  His point-per-game average has dipped each year since 2015-16 which is concerning for an offense-first defenseman and he has managed just nine goals in a San Jose uniform.  With a record-setting $11.5MM AAV through 2026-27, the Sharks need a whole lot more from Karlsson than they’ve received so far.

What should be on the Sharks’ wish list?

Two areas come to mind with one being a lot more attainable than the other.  The realistic one is trying to add scoring help; the Sharks are averaging just 2.75 goals per game and no one has more than three with Brent Burns being the only defender to get on the board (this despite having the priciest back end in the league).  They are pegged to finish more than $4MM under the cap, per CapFriendly which is quite important in this environment where so many teams are capped out.  If they can hang around the playoff race, they could put themselves in a spot to add.

The less likely one is getting a reliable goaltender.  The Sharks added Devan Dubnyk in the hopes that a change of scenery could spark him after a tough showing with Minnesota last year while also giving Martin Jones a bit of a reprieve to help him improve.  Neither have happened.  Jones has been pulled twice already and is narrowly allowing less than four goals per game while Dubnyk has just a .902 SV%.  However, while getting a steadier option would certainly help, given the difficulty in acquiring any sort of goaltending help this season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to adequately address this area.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Postponed Vegas Golden Knights Games Rescheduled

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Feb 1: The league has announced schedule changes following the three postponements. The following has been rescheduled:

  • Game #122, St. Louis at Vegas, originally scheduled for Jan. 28, is now scheduled for Monday, March 22 at 10 p.m. ET
  • Game #149, Vegas at San Jose, originally scheduled for Feb. 1, is now scheduled for Saturday, Feb. 13 at 4 p.m. ET
  • Game #162, Vegas at San Jose, originally scheduled for Feb. 3, is now scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 25 at 10:30 p.m. ET
  • Game #241, Anaheim at San Jose, originally scheduled for Feb.13, is now scheduled for Tuesday, April 6 at 10:30 p.m.  ET
  • Game #325, Vegas at Anaheim, originally scheduled for Feb. 26, is now scheduled for Friday, April 23 at 10 p.m. ET
  • Game #326, St. Louis at San Jose, originally scheduled for Feb. 26, is now scheduled for Monday, March 8 at 10:30 p.m. ET

Jan 29: The NHL has postponed two more Vegas Golden Knights games, despite no other players from the team appearing on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. Games against the San Jose Sharks scheduled for Monday and Wednesday have both been postponed and will be played later in the schedule.

In the release, the league specifies that three members of the Golden Knights coaching staff and one player (presumably Alex Pietrangelo, who is on the CPRA list) are isolating currently. The teams training facilities will remain closed until further notice.

The Golden Knights are currently scheduled to welcome in the Los Angeles Kings next on February 5, though it is not clear if the situation will have resolved by then. The league has not announced when the two games against the Sharks will be played, but that is now three postponed matches the Golden Knights must fit somewhere into their remaining schedule.

Perhaps the team’s four-day break in April, which follows a series against the Sharks will be the easiest place to fit the games in, though these postponements mean there will be very little rest for Vegas down the stretch.

Rudolfs Balcers Sent To AHL On Conditioning Stint

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  • Sharks winger Rudolfs Balcers has been cleared to play and will head to the minors for a conditioning stint, reports CapFriendly (Twitter links). The 23-year-old was claimed off waivers back on January 12th and received a non-roster designation the next day that lasted through today.  Balcers will be able to skate with AHL San Jose for up to two weeks before he must be recalled.

Sharks Set To Return To San Jose In February

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The San Jose Sharks will soon be back home at the SAP Center. Due to a ban on contact sports in Santa Clara County, the Sharks held training camp in Glendale, Arizona. The team has since played on the road and will be the “home” team in Glendale for games against the Vegas Golden Knights on February 1st and 3rd. However, the Sharks have announced that with the ban lifted back in San Jose, they have begun planning and implementing health and safety measures in preparation for a return home. The Sharks plan to make their true home debut on February 13 against the Anaheim Ducks.

The plan is for all future Sharks (and AHL Barracuda) home games beyond the upcoming Glendale series to take place in San Jose. However, the team will be on a short leash. Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News writes that Santa Clara County has already vowed that “Any professional athletics organization that violates the order shall be immediately and automatically suspended from engaging in athletic activities.” The Sharks must abide by the NHL’s COVID Protocol anyhow, but rather than only face a league fine and players and/or coaches out of commission, the team may actually lose their home again if they do not follow local guidelines as well.

For now, the team is focused on their upcoming “home” games in Glendale. The Sharks’ players may arguably be more excited for these games than they are for their return to San Jose. Included in the team’s release today was that they have received permission to have limited attendance during the two-game series. Given the much stricter COVID climate in California, these may be the only games that the Sharks play in front of fans all year. Of course, Pashelka notes that only 2,500 tickets are expected to be sold for each game and sales are limited to Arizona citizens only, but there are sure to be some local Sharks fans in attendance.

San Jose Sharks Acquire Christian Jaros

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The San Jose Sharks completed two trades today, ending with the acquisition of defenseman Christian Jaros from the Ottawa Senators. First, the Sharks sent Trevor Carrick to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for minor league forward Jack Kopacka, who they then flipped along with a 2022 seventh-round selection to the Senators for Jaros. GM Doug Wilson released a short statement on his newest defenseman:

Christian is a big right-shot defenseman who plays a physical game. He is a young player with 76 games of NHL experience so far and has the ability to grow his game.

This is a rare three-way trade in the NHL, though the Sharks can likely claim that they received the best player in the deal, given Jaros’ previous NHL experience. The 24-year-old defenseman has played in 76 games for the Senators over the last three seasons, including 61 in 2018-19. He was pushed down the depth chart by some of Ottawa’s more veteran additions since then and cleared waivers earlier this month. Yes, the Sharks could have acquired Jaros at that point for nothing but a waiver claim, but clearing actually likely improved Jaros’ trade value. He can now be moved up and down freely between the NHL, taxi squad, and AHL until he plays in 10 NHL games or spends 30 days on the NHL roster.

That flexibility is valuable for a team like the Sharks who just put Jacob Middleton on waivers today, potentially losing him to a claim should someone be interested in the left-shot defenseman. Jaros will become a useful depth piece that could even push for some NHL playing time if younger players like Mario Ferraro or Nikolai Knyzhov falter (though that certainly doesn’t seem likely for the former at this point).

In Carrick, the Ducks are receiving a minor league star, who has routinely put up huge offensive seasons from the back end. The 26-year-old has only ever played seven games at the NHL level though and likely is an addition more for the San Diego Gulls than anything. It just so happens that Sam Carrick, his older brother, is the captain of the Gulls.

Kopacka, the youngest player involved in the deals, spent most of the 2019-20 season with the Gulls, though he also did have a short stint with the Tulsa Oilers of the ECHL. A fourth-round pick from 2016, he has yet to play in the NHL or really break out in the minor leagues. The Senators of course are also getting a seventh-round pick, a nice little sweetener for a player that seemed unlikely to see the ice with them this season. Even beyond the NHL roster, the Senators have some younger prospects that will need playing time before long, and moving Jaros has cleared the way.

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