PHR Panel: Playoff Predicting
We’re now more than a month into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the future of three struggling west coast franchises.
Q: Which team has the best chance at a playoff spot next season: San Jose, Anaheim or Los Angeles?
Brian La Rose:
Of the California trio, the Sharks have the best chance of making it and I say that fully knowing that they’re going to be bringing the same core group back that has currently has them dead last in the Western Conference. But with the Kings still early in their rebuilding process and the Ducks’ youth movement not going as well as they hoped, neither of them are realistically in the postseason mix for next year so San Jose has the best odds by default.
The good news for the Sharks is that there’s cause for optimism. Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson are immediate bounce-back candidates after putting up underwhelming numbers (relative to their respective contracts) from the back end this season. That will help get them a few more wins.
It’s also hard to believe that they’ll be as banged up as they’ve been this year in 2020-21. Karlsson, Logan Couture, and Tomas Hertl are among the players that have missed at least 14 games due to injuries and it’s hard for any team to overcome that. While San Jose is in the basement this season, they wouldn’t be had it not been for their list of injuries. Being healthier will get them a few more wins as well.
They will certainly need better goaltending from Martin Jones next season but he can be better than he has been lately. I’m not saying I expect them to get back in next year but I wouldn’t be surprised if they did.
Holger Stolzenberg:
That’s a tough one. I really cannot under any circumstances see Anaheim or Los Angeles, both in the middle of full rebuilds suddenly jumping into the playoff race next year. I would be surprised if either team spent significant money on big free agents this offseason, which would be essential considering how young both squads are.
So, if there was a team that had a chance it might be San Jose, even though that seems like a stretch as well. The team does have quite a bit of veteran talent and some top players on their roster which could make them contenders. However, they don’t have enough of that talent and some of it has aged considerably such as Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau (assuming they return to the Sharks next season).
What they don’t seem to have is depth and with little cap room to work with (potential compliance buyouts notwithstanding), there is little incoming youth coming into San Jose. The team has traded most of its top picks and with much of their young talent in the AHL struggling last season, it’s hard to envision the Sharks being overly relevant in a top-heavy Pacific Division. Of course, the team could get a boost from Ryan Merkley next year on defense if he can prove he’s ready to play at the top level, but even that seems like a long-shot. Perhaps some high-quality, inexpensive depth signings could alleviate some of those issues and give the Sharks a chance.
Zach Leach:
Each member of what used to be an elite three-team rivalry in Southern California is looking for a return to form. While the Sharks may have the best veteran pieces and the Kings have the most cap flexibility to improve via free agency and trade, I will give the Ducks the best chance to make it back to the postseason in 2020-21.
I think that Anaheim has more talent than most people realize. It starts in goal with all-world keeper John Gibson, who would be a perennial Vezina candidate if he got more help. On the back end, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, and Erik Gudbransson all missed considerable time due to injury this season, but if healthy and backed by youngsters Jacob Larsson, Brendan Guhle, and Josh Mahura, there is the potential for it to be a strong unit.
However, the forward corps is where there is the greatest opportunity for improvement from this season to next. The Ducks’ talent in the pipeline cannot be overlooked. Max Jones, Sam Steel, Troy Terry, Isac Lundestrom and Maxime Comtois will all have another pro season under their belts, while standouts Trevor Zegras and Brayden Tracey will be looking to make an impact as well. Add that group to veterans Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Jakob Silfverberg, as well as new faces Danton Heinen and Sonny Milano, and Anaheim appears to have a number of potential difference-makers.
On paper, the Ducks seem to have the depth to be a contender and could look to add another high-end player, either on the blue line or perhaps as a physical force up front, to further that strength. Anaheim has fallen short of expectations for several years now, but with expectations for next year now lower than they probably should be, the Ducks have a chance to be a surprise playoff team is they can stay healthy and capitalize on their youth and talent.
Gavin Lee:
The loss of Joe Pavelski seemed to have a bigger impact than many expected on the Sharks this season, who at times looked leader-less and lost on the ice. Nothing went right for the team and perhaps they could bounce-back with some offseason tweaks, but I wonder if there isn’t more pain coming in San Jose before any pleasure.
Anaheim too could take a step forward to compete for a playoff spot, given how much young talent is coming up through the system. I’ve been vocal in my live chats for some time expressing my doubts in the real ceiling of some of their recent high draft picks, but there’s still a good chance at least a couple of them hit.
While it’s hard to imagine right now, I actually think that the Kings might be the best bet here.
The team is in the beginning stages of a rebuild no doubt, but there is a lot to like about what they’ve accomplished so far. After stripping several older pieces off the roster they not only loaded up on draft picks—six in the first three rounds this year—but also started playing much better. I’m a huge believer in Cal Petersen as a legitimate starter in the NHL and he showed it with a .922 save percentage in eight appearances, while Gabriel Vilardi is finally healthy enough to show why he was taken so high.
I think a new season with new expectations and new faces could rejuvenate Drew Doughty, allowing him to help mold some of the team’s talented young defenders into a strong unit.
In the games leading up to the league pause, the Kings were 10-2-1 and on a seven-game winning streak. I think that might be a sign of things to come, and they could potentially sneak into the playoffs as soon as next season.
Bob Boughner Has The Upper Hand To Remain As Sharks Head Coach
While the Sharks haven’t entirely committed to removing the interim tag from head coach Bob Boughner, it certainly seems as if they’re leaning in that direction. Speaking on a recent conference call, GM Doug Wilson told reporters, including Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News that Boughner currently has the upper hand in the process but that they intend to do a thorough review once the season officially comes to an end.
Boughner was named as the interim bench boss back in December, taking over from Peter DeBoer (who took over as the head coach in Vegas barely a month later). While San Jose sits at the bottom of the standings in the West (they have a 14-20-3 record under Boughner after being 15-16-2 under DeBoer), Wilson felt there was some progress made in the second half of the year:
I was pleased to see some of the overall play improve over the last half of the year. There were times more often than not that we were playing the game the right way.
Of course, Boughner’s performance behind the bench this season isn’t the only reason that he is the frontrunner to get the job on a full-time basis. He spent two years as an assistant with the team (2015-16 and 2016-17) before joining Florida as their head coach and a good chunk of the core is still there and that familiarity certainly doesn’t hurt.
If he does eventually have the interim tag removed, a quick turnaround is going to be expected. The Sharks don’t have much in the way of salary cap flexibility to change their roster so the majority of their core will likely return.
Having fewer top players go down with injuries will certainly help in that regard and Wilson did have some positive news on that front. Center Tomas Hertl is well ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery while defenseman Erik Karlsson (thumb) and center Logan Couture (concussion) are close to being fully healthy and could return if the season resumes at some point over the coming weeks and months.
John Leonard Agrees To Terms With San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks have reached another agreement with a college star, announcing that John Leonard will be joining the organization. The team did not announce any contract details, likely for the same reasoning as Brinson Pasichnuk earlier today—it’s unclear whether the contract will start in 2019-20 or 2020-21. Still, Sharks GM Doug Wilson released a short statement on the young forward:
John is a high-end shooter who is creative with the puck. He took big steps in both his fitness level and all-around game and became one of the most dominant offensive players in college hockey this season. We are excited to see his continued growth as a member of the Sharks organization.
Leonard, 21, recently finished his junior season at UMass-Amherst and is a top-10 finalist for the Hobey Baker Award after scoring 27 goals and 37 points in 33 games. Originally selected 182nd overall by the Sharks in 2018, he has quickly shown that his offensive ability can be relied upon even if the rest of his game is still a work in progress.
San Jose Sharks Closing in On Brinson Pasichnuk
6:30pm: The suggestion that Pasichnuk was waiting for a team to offer the Perunovich “double contract” appears to have been correct. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the Sun Devils standout has agreed to terms on two separate deals, one that would begin this season should the NHL regular season resume and one that would begin in 2020-21. The Sharks have yet to to confirm the signing and may wait until one contract or the other can be affirmed.
5:00pm: The San Jose Sharks may be adding another defenseman to their system, as Kevin Kurz of The Athletic tweets the team is “closing in” on a contract with Brinson Pasichnuk. The Arizona State University captain recently completed his senior season and is an unrestricted free agent.
When Kurz adds that the young defenseman was highly sought after, he isn’t exaggerating. Previous reports had as many as 20 teams interested in Pasichnuk, though he had recently whittled that list down to just two. If he has indeed chosen to sign with the Sharks, any delay likely is due to the uncertainty around the NHL season. Pasichnuk wanted to see if there was any chance of signing for this year before making a contract official, similar to the way Scott Perunovich went about his contract with the St. Louis Blues recently.
There’s good reason for that interest from two-thirds of the league. Pasichnuk recorded 30 points for the second consecutive season, bringing his total up to 107 in 136 college games. The left-handed defenseman went undrafted out of the AJHL, but has continued to improve his game as the competition increased. The next step will be trying to continue that production at the professional level, something he apparently is ready to do as part of the Sharks organization.
Joe Thornton Still Wants To Play Next Season
It would have been unusual enough to have the NHL playoffs with no Joe Thornton this season, given he has appeared in the postseason 17 times over his career. But a regular season without him? That would be the end of an era. Some had wondered whether “Jumbo Joe” had played his final NHL game now that there is a chance the 2019-20 regular season could be canceled and the San Jose Sharks certainly won’t qualify for the playoffs, expanded or not. You don’t have to worry, according to the man himself, who told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic that he still has “years to go” in his NHL career.
Thornton, who will turn 41 in July, has now played in 1,636 regular season games during a 22-year career, with another 179 postseason contests added on. That’s already good for ninth all-time, trailing only longtime teammate Patrick Marleau among active players. Another full season would get him close to the top-five, depending on what Marleau does, not to mention climbing up the assist and point leaderboards, where he ranks seventh and 14th all-time respectively.
Sure, he’s not the same player that won the Hart Trophy as league MVP in 2006, or even the powerplay anchor that recorded 82 points in the 2015-16 season. But Thornton is still a strong possession player and continues to make you snap your head and say “wow” when he threads a pass through several defenders.
The question immediately becomes where would Thornton want to play next season. He obviously has incredible ties to the Sharks organization, but went public with his disappointment when he wasn’t moved to a contender at the trade deadline. If he doesn’t believe San Jose can get back to contender status by next year, perhaps he would want to continue his career elsewhere. The London, Ontario native has been linked to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the past, and has a history with the Boston Bruins that would make any return a marketing executive’s dream.
Thornton has also been very willing in the past to structure his contract in a way that made it fit for San Jose, something that might have to happen again if he wants to keep playing. After making $2MM this season he will likely have to take another pay cut to stay in the league. While that may seem like a problem for some, after making more than $109MM during a long career but still never raising the Stanley Cup, Thornton is probably looking at the situation on the ice more than the dollar signs on the contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
San Jose Sharks To Play March Home Games Without Fans
The San Jose Sharks, who initially hesitated to comply with the three-week ban on large social gatherings put in place by Santa Clara County, have now announced that they will indeed play home games closed to the public. The team’s release states that “admission to games will be limited to home and visiting club personnel, approved credentialed media and broadcast partners, essential club and arena staff, and NHL officials.” Unlike the Columbus Blue Jackets, the team has only confirmed this restricted access policy through their March home games and not through the end of the regular season.
Fortunately, the Sharks will not miss out on that much ticket revenue if they only limit attendance for their remaining March home games. San Jose is set to host the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, and Coyotes, but that is it. The team has two additional home games in April that could be opened back up to the public.
As the fear of the spread of coronavirus intensifies, the Sharks and Blue Jackets are far from the only teams who will be playing empty arenas. Teams across multiple sports and at the major league, minor league, and amateur levels are all taking measures to mitigate the risk of the virus spreading to players and fans alike. That of course includes the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda as well, who share a building with their parent club Sharks. The Barracuda have just two home games scheduled through the rest of the month.
Fredrik Handemark Drawing NHL Interest
With European leagues finishing up (or being cancelled) over the next few weeks, plenty of interest will be shown in some of the top performers. In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman writes that both the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks have shown interest in Fredrik Handemark out of the SHL.
Handemark has spent the last five seasons with Malmo, breaking out offensively in 2016-17 when he recorded 32 points in 47 games. He has been a consistent scorer for them ever since, and set a career-high in both goals (14) and points (38) this season.
Not only has Handemark produced offensively, but also represents a big body—6’4″ 209-lbs—that can play the center position. That’s the kind of player that always draws NHL attention, though it’s hard to know exactly how his game would translate to North America.
Hearing that the Red Wings and Sharks are “eyeing” Handemark shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, given their seasons so far. Both teams are near the bottom of the standings, with the Red Wings orchestrating a perfect tank season. Detroit is already eliminated from the postseason and will be looking forward to the draft lottery next month.
Minor Transactions: 03/11/20
The party ended for the Philadelphia Flyers last night, unable to extend their winning streak to ten games after being defeated 2-0 by the Boston Bruins. They’ll be able to get right back on the horse tomorrow night, but first the NHL will hold five games this evening. Today’s schedule is heavily represented by Western Conference teams, with a battle between the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers perhaps the most interesting in terms of playoff implications. As they prepare, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves throughout the day.
- Ahead of their road trip that starts tonight in Chicago, the San Jose Sharks have recalled Nick DeSimone. San Jose will face the Blackhawks, Blues, Stars and Avalanche before heading home later this month.
- The Montreal Canadiens have sent Lukas Vejdemo back to the minor leagues after playing in three games during this latest recall. The 24-year old forward scored his first NHL goal last night but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Nashville Predators.
- Once again, Martin Kaut has been recalled by the Colorado Avalanche, the third such occasion over the last few weeks. The young forward has looked ready to make the jump to the NHL and will give Colorado another body as Nathan MacKinnon deals with a lower-body injury.
- The New York Rangers have recalled Steven Fogarty under emergency conditions, likely meaning that Filip Chytil will not be ready to go tonight against the Avalanche. Chytil has been listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Fogarty, 26, has played in six games this season and 17 in his career, but is still looking for his first NHL point.
Snapshots: League Cancellations, Bjugstad, Hamonic
As the spread of COVID-19 continues around the world, professional sports leagues and organizations are starting to feel the effects. The San Jose Sharks are the first NHL team that is dealing with the consequences, as gatherings of more than 1,000 people have been banned in Santa Clara county. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic (subscription required) examined the situation in full, noting that the possibility exists that the Sharks will play in front of no fans later this month.
It’s not just individual teams feeling the changes though. Today, both the EBEL and DEL, leagues in Austria and Germany respectively, have cancelled the remainder of their seasons, including playoffs. The EBEL also includes teams from Hungary, Italy and the Czech Republic.
- It has become routine among the Pittsburgh Penguins this season to expect injury, though one still has to feel for Nick Bjugstad. The forward has suffered another lower-body injury that is unrelated to any prior, and has been listed as “week-to-week” once again according to head coach Mike Sullivan. Bjugstad has played just 13 games this season, scoring two points.
- Travis Hamonic was back at practice in full for the Calgary Flames today, skating alongside T.J. Brodie on the second defense pairing. That suggests the veteran defenseman will return to the Flames’ lineup later this week for the first time in over a month. Calgary is barely holding onto their third place position in the Pacific Division, meaning Hamonic’s return will be a welcome one as they prepare for the stretch run.
Jacob Middleton Week-To Week With A Lower-Body Injury
- Sharks defenseman Jacob Middleton was just starting to secure a regular role in the lineup after being recalled late last month but that momentum has been derailed. Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News mentions that Middleton is listed as week-to-week with his lower-body injury and may not be back this season. The 24-year-old has played in ten NHL games this season and will be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility in July.