Prospects

College hockey in the NCAA has been growing rapidly in recent years into one of the top developmental pathways for NHL talent in the world. Yet, it is still limited by the NCAA’s amateurism rules, which in most cases do not allow any individuals with “professional” experience in their sport to participate in college athletics. In hockey, this prohibits anyone who has played in a Canadian major junior league or European pro league from taking their talents to the NCAA.

However, change could be on the horizon. The NCAA held a Constitutional Convention on Monday, during which they unveiled a working draft of a new, decentralized and deregulated set of rules for the NCAA that will put the power of structure and governance into the hands of each of the three divisions. That will mean little at first, but will almost certainly lead to sweeping changes down the line at the Division I level as they reconsider how they want to be run once separate from Division II and III, which are materially different. Could amateurism rules be one of the major alterations? It sure seems likely. The NCAA has already embraced publicity rights or “NIL” for student-athletes and the rewritten constitution stresses the importance of student-athlete welfare. Division I is also the most financially-driven segment of the NCAA and will have to address a number of fiscal decisions. Is limiting hockey athletes from Division I hockey because they received a stipend in Canada or a few game checks in Europe the best for the athletes? The game? The revenue stream? Probably not on all counts. For now, the 2021-22 season moves along unaffected, but the structure of college hockey could look much different in the not-too-distant future.

Recent Results

While many are already tired of the narrative, it continues to hold true. No. 1 Michigan is the class of the NCAA this season and heavy favorite to win the title. The rest of the top five are certainly not slouches, but they simply pale in comparison to the star-studded Wolverines, who swept rival Michigan State as well as Penn State in recent weeks. They share the best points percentage with only No. 5 Quinnipiac and have the nation’s top offense. Until further notice, no one is passing Michigan up as the top team in the NCAA.

No. 2 St. Cloud State, No. 3 Minnesota State, and No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth are certainly not slouches. The Huskies are a reigning finalist with the best scoring margin and second-best defense in the country. The Mavericks are a top-five offense, uncharacteristic for a typically conservative team, and share the top scoring margin claim with St. Cloud. Duluth has won two and appeared in three of the past four championships and just narrowly missed another appearance last year. Yet, all three programs picked up unexpected losses in recent weeks – the Mavericks’ loss to Ferris State chief among them – which has kept them in Michigan’s shadow.

It is actually No. 5 Quinnipiac that might be the most impressive team behind Michigan of late. The Bobcats top record was boosted by a 4-0 run over the past two weekends of action, while their top-ranked defense remained stout. The top five in the country is new territory for Quinnipiac, but the ECAC program may just be getting started. With a good strength of schedule to go with a leading record, a couple more statement wins could leapfrog the team into the No. 1 conversation (or at least No. 2).

No. 6 North Dakota is also on a run following a surprising loss to Penn State in the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame game back on October 30. The Fighting Hawks bounced back with sweeps of No. 11 Denver and Miami, establishing themselves as a real threat for the title. No. 14 Notre Dame also went undefeated in its four games over the past two weeks and holds the nation’s top penalty kill. The Fighting Irish just need to beat some fellow top dogs if they want to move up.

Two teams shooting up the rankings are No. 15 UMass Lowell and No. 17 Ohio State. Both teams are taking advantage of some top teams in turmoil in their respective conferences to make a name for themselves. The Riverhawks are undefeated in their past four games, all against Hockey East competition, sweeping Boston University and adding wins against No. 18 Northeastern and No. 19 Boston College. They hold a top-five record in college hockey right now. Ohio State meanwhile has been menacing defensively with a top-five mark, helping to sweep Penn State and split with No. 7 Minnesota. Suddenly the Buckeyes are the third-highest ranked team in the Big Ten and have already shown that they can skate with the Gophers just ahead of them.

Early Hobey Favorites

It’s never too early for MVP talk and even just six weeks into the season there are already some names making cases for the Hobey Baker Award. Denver’s Carter Savoie (EDM) remains out in front with a league-leading 1.7 points per game that fuels the Pioneers’ third-ranked offense. However, there are others closing the gap in the scoring race. Taylor Ward of No. 9 Omaha is quickly becoming a top name to watch on the college free agent market. The senior forward leads the country in goals and is tied with only top-five NHL Draft selection Kent Johnson (CLB) of Michigan in points per game, behind Savoie. Fellow undrafted prospects Drew Worrad of Western Michigan and Matthew Kopperud of Arizona State are also in the scoring race, followed closely by none other than reigning No. 1 overall pick Owen Power.

Power and Johnson and not alone as Wolverines excelling statistically. Matthew Beniers (SEA) is tied for third in goal scoring. Luke Hughes (NJD) is third in scoring among defensemen, while leading the NCAA in plus/minus at +16. His defense partner, Jacob Truscott (VAN), is in second at +14. The problem of course is that the top-ranked team in the country is so stacked that it will be difficult for any one player to make a case for the Hobey Baker. A standout on a top team where NHL talent is more sparse will have a better shot, such as Savoie or Ward or Jake Sanderson (OTT) of North Dakota, who trails only Power in defensive scoring.

In net, there are several goaltenders off to strong starts, but perhaps not quite in the Hobey Baker conversation just yet. Devon Levi (BUF) is on his way though, leading the pack with a .943 save percentage and a second-place goals against average of 1.57. St. Cloud’s David Hrenak (LAK) leads that category with a 1.50 GAA to go along with a .939 SV% that comes in behind only Levi. Perhaps the two most valuable goaltenders thus far though are not even drafted prospects. Matt Murray is back in the starter’s net for UMass and keeping the Minutemen in games with his third-ranked .927 SV% and top-ten GAA. Longtime standout Dryden McKay of Minnesota State unsurprisingly holds a top-five GAA and top-ten SV% as well. Both could draw interest from NHL clubs later this spring, a nice consolation if they aren’t Hobey Baker finalists.

Trouble Brewing In Beantown

The hotbed of college hockey has grown cold with two historic programs struggling immensely this season. Sure, No. 16 Harvard and No. 18 Northeastern wish they were ranked higher, but it is No. 19 Boston College and unranked Boston University who are of real concern. Perennial favorites loaded with NHL talent, both the Eagles and Terriers are falling well short of expectations.

BC is 6-5-1 to begin the year and only their preseason rank and their (barely) winning record is keeping them ranked. The Eagles have dropped games to lowly programs like Bentley, Colorado College, and Merrimack while picking up half of their wins against the likes of Holy Cross, Vermont, and Merrimack again. Boston College has ten NHL draft picks on the roster, which ranks sixth in college hockey. It’s actually slightly low for the team and doesn’t include any first rounders, but even in an off year the Eagles should be outperforming their current record, especially considering the light schedule. Of the two, BC is more likely to turn their season around, but showed few signs of life in their last game, a convincing loss to UMass Lowell.

BU is in far worse shape. The Terriers have struggled to find sustained success for several years now, but this is a new low. The team is 4-7-1 and has long since left the national rankings. In fact, they received only three voting points in the latest poll. Boston University was swept by Northern Michigan and split series with Merrimack and Sacred Heart, which account for two of their three regulation wins on the year. With 14 NHL prospects in the program, the Terriers trail only Minnesota for the most in the NCAA. Unlike BC, the group includes two first-round picks, as well as four second-round picks, and an average draft position in the late third round. If all of those players have the seal of approval of pro clubs, it isn’t a recruiting problem for BU. Head coach Albie O’Connell’s seat was already hot entering this season; it’s on fire now. Recently hired assistant Jay Pandolfo, who left the Boston Bruins for his alma mater, could be getting the call soon.

With the growth of the college game, it is refreshing to see some other programs with top rankings and national headlines so far this season, but there will always be a draw for historic programs like BC and BU. For the good of NCAA hockey, hopefully the two Boston powerhouses and their talented rosters figure it out soon.