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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s goaltending situation, ranking the NHL’s potential expansion sites, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in last weekend’s mailbag.

PyramidHeadcrab: With the Sharks having now cleared nearly all of their large (and arguably, overpriced) contracts off the book, what’s the next step? What actions lead to greener pastures?

The next step is patience.  While it feels like San Jose has been rebuilding for a while, they’re still in the relative infancy of it when it comes to accumulating assets and future core pieces.  They have a few in place headlined by Will Smith but there’s still some work to do on that front.  Landing their goalie of the future will also need to happen.

Basically, they need another couple of years like this before slowly starting to build back up as their core youngsters get integrated into the lineup and become comfortable enough to take on bigger roles.  As that happens, then they supplement with quality veterans and, ideally, impact ones over time.  In other words, follow the model that Arizona is doing which is a long-winded rebuild but one that should eventually prove to be fruitful.

I assume you were hoping for something more concrete of an action, however.  Here’s what I’d recommend.

San Jose needs to be the clearinghouse for teams to offload pricey short-term deals.  They can’t retain any salary until 2025-26 as their three slots are all tied up so they can’t pick up picks that way.  But they can add draft choices by taking on some contracts.  It’s not as if they don’t want or need to spend either; they have nearly $39MM in cap space for next year, per CapFriendly, and their RFA class won’t eat up a huge chunk of that amount.  Rather than shopping in free agency to get to the cap floor, why not take on a contract or two (or three) and add some more assets that way?  I’m not saying that will expedite things but if it helps land them another quality prospect or two, it’d be well worth doing.

GBear: Does Trotz trade either Saros or Askarov this offseason, and if so, which of the two?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  If one moves, I think it’s Juuse Saros.  I say that knowing that Nashville was believed to be open to move Yaroslav Askarov to move up at the trade a year ago but it’s a different situation now than it was then.

Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension with Winnipeg just gave Saros a legitimate benchmark to shoot for in his next negotiations.  Should Nashville be willing to commit that type of contract to Saros two years from now?  I’d say no, especially since they’re not exactly short-term contenders.  This time a year ago, I think the team could have been aiming for an extension in the $7MM range based on how the goalie market had played out.  But the Hellebuyck one really changed the math on that which I think then changes the outcome of who goes.

As to the question of when a move happens, in a perfect world, those two are the tandem to start the season, giving the Preds some insurance and Askarov a quality veteran to work with.  The problem is getting full value for a legitimate number one goaltender in-season is something that probably just isn’t going to happen.  Few teams have a need at that time and usually, some that would couldn’t afford Saros’ $5MM price tag.

Accordingly, I guess it’s going to need to happen in the offseason, likely leading up to the draft where some of the bigger moves get made.  That would then give GM Barry Trotz time to find a veteran replacement to work with Askarov, either via trade or in free agency although it’s not a particularly strong UFA class for netminders.

Cla23: What are the chances of the Jets signing Monahan and Toffoli to extensions?  What’s going to happen to Perfetti? Trade bait maybe?

I would say that the Jets have a reasonable chance of signing Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to new deals.  If I had to pick one of the two as to who was more likely to sign, I’d go with Toffoli.  He was certainly open to re-signing in New Jersey and it came down to term and money; the two sides were just too far apart.  If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is willing to meet that asking price (which was speculated to be around the contract that Alex Killorn got last summer, four years and $25MM), then I don’t think Toffoli would have any issue eschewing a chance at testing the market, especially with the Jets being a team that is firmly in win-now mode.

Monahan’s a bit of a trickier case.  The long injury history makes him a real wild card.  I’m sure Monahan would like a long-term deal that set him up for the rest of his prime years but with that injury history, do the Jets want to give him that?  Perhaps more importantly, does Monahan think he can get it?  If so, he’ll probably go to market.  But if he figures his best shot is a medium-term agreement, then I think it’s right in Winnipeg’s wheelhouse to get a deal done.

I don’t get the sense that Cheveldayoff will be looking at Cole Perfetti as trade bait this offseason.  Yes, he was a healthy scratch recently but he still should be part of their longer-term plans.  He’s having a quieter year than expected but Perfetti is still just 22.  Now being deployed on the fourth line, he’s not exactly in a spot where he could be maximizing his trade value either.  Perfetti will almost certainly wind up with a short-term bridge contract in his first trip through restricted free agency so they can easily afford to give him another year and see how things go before taking a longer look at assessing his long-term fit with the franchise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What does the offseason look like for the Pens? Clearly, Kyle Dubas wants to change this roster makeup and get younger.

Is it possible we actually see one of Crosby, Letang, Malkin, or Karlsson moved in the offseason? They have most of the roster locked up for next year so I imagine trades are how they are going to have to address this roster primarily.

It definitely feels like there’s a goal of getting the Penguins to be a younger group.  And, barring an improbable turnaround that propels them into a playoff spot, that should be the course of action to take.  That said, it’s a concept that’s a lot easier said than done.

Let’s look at the four veterans you listed.  I don’t think Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin would entertain the possibility of leaving and waiving their no-move clauses.  Erik Karlsson tried his best to pour cold water on the idea of him moving on although I think he’d consider it in the right situation.  So maybe it’s him.  But otherwise, Sidney Crosby might be the logical candidate.  He, too, has a no-move clause but has suggested he’d want to do what’s in the best interest of the franchise.  He’d certainly bring back the best return so if it comes to that and he’s amenable, it could be Crosby who moves on to help jumpstart the rebuild if they’ve decided the time is right to do that.

Having said that, I don’t think Plan A is moving any one of those.  Instead, it’s more work around the edges of the roster.  Reilly Smith will be on an expiring deal next season so there should be a viable trade market for him.  I expect they’ll try to do something with Rickard Rakell in a player-player swap of underachievers.  Marcus Pettersson could be in play on an expiring deal as well.  Getting some younger pieces back will accomplish that same objective while giving their core yet another opportunity to try to get back to the postseason.  It’s a fine line to balance but I suspect Dubas will be encouraged to attempt to pull this off.

I’m not convinced it’ll just be trades, however.  If the cap goes up to $87.5MM as expected, they’ll have a little under $13MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  As you noted, a lot of spots are filled so there is room for them to add a piece or two on the open market.  If they aim for the younger options (27, 28, maybe 29 years old), they can make the team a bit younger while still potentially upgrading it.  I don’t think the teardown to really cycle to a younger core is coming just yet but the average age will be a bit younger on opening night next season.  All in all, I think it’ll be a busy summer for Pittsburgh but not quite at least year’s activity level.

Black Ace57: How would you rank the rumored expansion cities from most likely to least likely? Also, why is Cincy even in consideration when Columbus already has to contend with the Penguins over building a fan base? Can Ohio really support two teams like that?

There are believed to be five cities that have reached out to the NHL about potential expansion based on comments from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman last month.  Those five, with my rankings, are Salt Lake City, Houston, Atlanta, Omaha, and Cincinnati.

With Salt Lake City, it feels like a matter of when, not if, a franchise is there.  About the only way it doesn’t happen through expansion is if the Coyotes wind up there.  (Frankly, that’s a semi-realistic outcome.)  It seems safe to say they’ll have a team soon enough.

Houston is the other one where it feels like a case of when, not if.  They already have an arena and a potential owner in place.  It’s also a major media market and as we’ve seen with the NHL’s attempts to keep the Coyotes in a bigger media market in Arizona, they’re going to try hard to stay in (or get to) the big markets.

Atlanta would be next.  Yes, it has failed before but by the time a team was to come, basically an entire generation would have gone by.  It’s a sizable market with at least a bit of a core base from the Thrashers days.  I’m not overly confident that they’d have long-term success but with it being a bigger market as well, that will help their cause.

The other two I’m a bit skeptical about.  Omaha is at least a new market but I’m not sure that alone is enough to get the NHL’s attention.  And I share the same concern with Cincinnati.  It’s not that they’re under consideration though, they’ve just submitted a letter of interest.  But I don’t see that one happening either.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the quiet deadline for the Red Wings, a look at the offseason head coaching market, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gowings2008: Why has Yzerman stood pat in terms of trades and call-ups? Follow up, do you think Yzerman sees the team’s window as Seider and Raymond’s primes and is using Larkin’s prime to give the younger prospects time to mature?

I was surprised to see Detroit largely stand pat at the trade deadline.  I didn’t have them making a big splash but with the cap space they have, I thought they’d get in on the cheaper buys.  The fact there were some low-cost additions for teams that were simply willing to take on the full freight of the contract only made me more surprised as that was the type of move for them to make.

It came out after the deadline that Yzerman was hesitant to move their top picks and prospects.  I completely agree with that decision.  But flipping a late-round pick for an upgrade up front was something they could have done.  From a recall perspective, teams are capped at four non-emergency recalls from here to the end of the season.  They’ve already used three (Jonatan Berggren after being papered down while Austin Czarnik and Simon Edvinsson were converted to regular recalls once emergency conditions on their promotions ended).  They can’t do much more on that front.

I think Yzerman sees this team as being a couple of years away from contention which lines up with your follow-up question.  I suspect he’s hoping Dylan Larkin is still in his prime at that time but the hope is that their prospects should be starting to become key contributors at that time.  Those players will be on their entry-level deals, giving them ample cap space to take a big swing on the open market to upgrade as well.

rule78.1: What do the Red Wings do with the following UFA/RFA forwards this coming offseason now that weaknesses with them have been exposed?

Kane
Raymond
Perron
Veleno

I fully expect them to take a run at re-signing Patrick Kane.  39 points in 39 games is quite impressive and frankly, better than I was expecting.  There is going to be some risk here, however, with the track record of players coming back from his surgery not being the strongest.  He was willing to take a one-year deal this time but that shouldn’t be the case in the summer.  Anything over two years might make Yzerman hesitant.  I think Perron is in a similar situation.  At the right price point and term (again, probably a maximum of two years), I think they’d be interested in re-signing him.  But right now, I think he’s likelier to move on with the team turning to the open market to replace him.

As for the RFAs, it’s a bit easier to forecast.  Raymond is getting signed, it’s only a matter of bridge or long-term.  I think Moritz Seider gets the long-term deal while Raymond gets a two-year bridge around Perron’s current price point of $4.75MM.   Joe Veleno didn’t have much leverage last summer which is why he settled for just $825K.  He hasn’t shown enough for a long-term contract just yet but another one-year agreement feels likely for him.  With arbitration rights, he could more than double that AAV.  He has been a bit underwhelming for a first-round pick but there’s still room for him in Detroit’s long-term core.

Unclemike1526: I hate to keep harping on the Hawks’ goaltending but they have to do something next year, right? Now that Mrazek is here for two more years and that’s cool, can we count on him to have another injury-free year? I think we’ve all seen that Soderblom isn’t any kind of answer. Is Commesso going to be ready next year? Gajan is the future but at least two years away. Basse might not even sign here. They need to get some kind of bridge guy to the young guys and the future. I mean if Mrazek goes down next year without that guy they might as well phone in the games. A decent vet on a one-year deal who can hold down the fort just in case. Right? Thanks as always.

Do they have to do something?  Probably not.  Mrazek is there and if they’re not ready to pull the plug on Arvid Soderblom, they could very well run with those two next season.  They could then look to a veteran third-stringer to pair with Drew Commesso in the minors but that squeezes out Jaxson Stauber.  If they don’t want to have Soderblom (or Stauber) in the backup role next year, then Soderblom pairs with Commesso and yes, then a veteran on a one-year deal makes a whole lot of sense.  Frankly, a two-year deal would be more than defensible given Mrazek’s injury history; expecting Mrazek to be healthy would be risky.

Speaking of Commesso, I think you need to adjust your expectations for NHL readiness.  Over the years, I’ve read plenty of interviews with team executives who say they’d like a young goalie to have between 100 and 150 AHL games before moving up; there’s a reason they typically are promoted a lot slower than skaters do.  Commesso is currently at 30 games where he has been decent but not elite.  I don’t think he’ll be ready next season and unless he’s flat-out dominating the league for an extended stretch next year, I don’t think he’ll be ready for 2025-26 either.  That isn’t to say they couldn’t give him a few starts here and there when injuries strike on the NHL tandem but in terms of being a regular, he has a long way to go.

I’ll quickly comment on Adam Gajan as well who you have as at least two years away.  I’d add several years to that timeline.  He’s not having a great final season in the USHL which doesn’t help but most goalies play at least three years in college (like Commesso did).  Goalies basically never make the jump from the NCAA to the NHL as, again, teams want lots of AHL action before promoting them full-time.  Accordingly, I’d peg Gajan as five years away from being an NHL regular, possibly closer to six.  There’s reason for optimism for the future in goal but patience will be required.

Gmm8811: There are currently four interim coaches behind the benches. In my opinion, none of them will be hired next season as the full-time bench boss. Odds of Quenneville being reinstated? Thoughts on new hires? Recycle former coaches or new blood coming aboard?

First, let’s list the four interim coaches – Jim Hiller (Los Angeles), Travis Green (New Jersey), Jacques Martin (Ottawa), and Drew Bannister (St. Louis).  We know for sure that Martin won’t be back and I’d be surprised if Hiller was.  I think there’s a chance that Green sticks around if the Devils do well down the stretch and sneak into that final playoff spot.  As for Bannister, I think he will stay on in the full-time role.  The Blues aren’t going to be contenders over the next few years so a developmental coach like Bannister might be the right fit.  They’ve played well enough since he took over that I could see him getting a three-year deal.

I expect someone will take a real run at Joel Quenneville this offseason.  By then, he’ll have been out of the game for nearly three years now.  Will that be long enough for him to be reinstated?  I wouldn’t call it a lock but if I had to handicap it, maybe 80/20 that he is.

As for the vacancies, it’ll be the usual mixture of some first-time hires and others getting a second (or third) opportunity.  For first-time hires, Jon Gruden and Jay Leach I think will be strong candidates.  Gruden has been speculatively linked to Ottawa’s opening for a while now and Leach had some interest last year.  For the recycled options as you termed it, I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Berube lands another opportunity.  Dean Evason likely will get some inquiries as well and I wonder about Jay Woodcroft.  I know the fact Edmonton took off after they let him go doesn’t help but he helped turn things around when he took over and is still a young coach.  The chance to get a newer blood type of coach with some NHL experience could be appealing to some teams so I think he’ll have some interviews as well.

Schwa: Any predictions on where the top college free agents end up and who has the best chance of contributing early on? Is there a different format or process in this free agency than that of the summer FA? Thanks!

In terms of predicting where they end up, it’s a giant dart throw.  This isn’t a situation where some teams have more cap space than others which would be a difference-maker in discussions.  All teams are capped at offering entry-level deals so there will be little to no difference between them.  For some players, it’ll be about playing close to home.  For others, they’ll be targeting a team willing to burn a year of the contract now.  Others will look at depth charts and try to find a team with thin depth to give them a better chance of being recalled.  Meanwhile, some others will look for teams with better track records of prospect development.  With each player having a different priority, it’s really hard to forecast who the top contenders will be.

As for who has the best chance of contributing early, I think defenseman Dylan Anhorn could be a candidate to burn a year right away and see a handful of games down the stretch.  Winger Collin Graf will be highly sought after and should start his entry-level pact right away.  Note that these players – or any undrafted college free agent signing – will only be eligible to play until the playoffs.

There isn’t necessarily a different process to college free agency (teams can speak to agents/family advisors to work out a contract) but how it plays out is a bit different.  Unlike July 1st, not all players will be looking to sign right away as once they sign, they can’t play anymore in college.  Accordingly, players will wait until their campaign comes to an end.  For some, that has already happened while for others, that might not occur until closer to mid-April.  As a result, the flow of players is more gradual instead of the typical free-for-all we see on July 1st.

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In our final pre-deadline mailbag, topics include the upcoming trade deadline, Washington’s offensive struggles this season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two editions focusing on the Central Division and the Eastern Conference.

Emoney123: Can Briere make a move that balances the playoff drive and rebuilding goals?

Anyone else besides Laughton, Walker, and Seeler likely or could be traded?

Save the draft picks and prospects and look forward to making a splash in the offseason with a signing such as RFA Elias Pettersson?

Such an approach is doable in theory but is often hard to thread the needle on.  To do it, they need to sell high on their rentals to get the future assets and then take on some high-priced players for a low cost (late-round pick or a lower-end unsigned prospect) that hopefully keeps them afloat for the final spot in the Metropolitan Division.  How many teams will be looking to dump pricey expiring deals for just the value of getting the remaining money off the books?  I’m sure there will be some players available but enough to offset the loss of their others who will be more impactful?  I’m less sure about that one.

Beyond Scott Laughton, Sean Walker, and Nick Seeler, I don’t see too many more trade options.  Someone might want Marc Staal for a late-round pick with the experience he has.  If they’re still open to moving Morgan Frost, maybe the right deal comes around there.  I’m not as sold on his potential availability as I was earlier in the season, however.  If they make a move for a goalie, I could see Felix Sandstrom being part of a return going the other way so I suppose he’s in the mix to move as well.

While Pettersson has clearly now signed, I want to address the general idea of the question.  If you wanted the Flyers to make an RFA signing of that level of significance, you’re talking about giving up four unprotected first-round picks for the right to pay someone a contract that will be well above market value.  That’s not justifiable for pretty much any team at that level of a contract and certainly not for a team like the Flyers with where they are in their rebuild, a process that is still closer to the beginning than the end.  This is still a longer-term process that they’re in so it’s not the right time for them to be moving picks and prospects for established pieces.

Schwa: Set of Deadline questions:

1) What teams do you expect to make a splash for bigger names versus teams who will focus on role players?

2) Who is the biggest name you expect to move?

3) Who is the biggest rumored name you suspect will stay put?

As always, thanks for your input!

1) I could see Vegas making a splash.  They’re certainly no stranger to swinging big and with Mark Stone out for the rest of the regular season (and quite possibly longer), they now have the LTIR flexibility to make an impact of some significance.  Florida and Colorado also come to mind as teams aiming high.  The Panthers very quietly have ample regular cap space although they’re lacking top picks to trade.  Colorado, meanwhile, doesn’t have the cap room but if they’re able to move out Ryan Johansen, I could see them making a big move as well.

At the other end of the spectrum, I could see Detroit shopping there.  Here’s a team that has done well this season but is still not near the level that they need to be to have a deep playoff run.  There’s value in giving their youngsters some playoff experience though so I could see them using their cap space to add.  I also have Los Angeles here, not because they only want to do something small but because that’s about all they can do; with Viktor Arvidsson and Adrian Kempe expected back by the end of the season, they don’t have longer-term LTIR flexibility which means they’re pretty much money in, money out.

2) Two names come to mind, neither of which are particularly surprising.  Since Noah Hanifin doesn’t appear to be interested in signing an extension with the Flames, they’re in a spot where they need to move him.  I expect he’ll be the top blueliner off the board.  I’m not of the belief that it’s going to be a big trade deadline with a bunch of notable names moved; it’ll be quieter than this year.  So up front, Jake Guentzel is the biggest one I think gets moved.  It certainly feels like the expectation around him has shifted from a maybe on the trade front to probable with Pittsburgh realizing that even if he stays, they’re aiming for a likely first-round exit.  If they can’t re-sign him (and it stands to reason that if they were close, we’d be hearing about it), then he should be moved.

3) We’ve seen plenty of speculation surrounding Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom to the point where he has been featured prominently on some ‘trade bait’ boards.  I’m not as bullish as they are on the idea of moving him right now.  The Flames more or less have a one-team market for his services, New Jersey.  While I acknowledge the Devils might be desperate for an impactful addition, how much can Calgary elicit from a one-team bidding war?  In the summer, the Devils could still very well be looking for a goalie and perhaps some others too.  If GM Craig Conroy thinks he can get a better deal then compared to now (and I suspect he will think that), then Markstrom likely stays put, at least for a few more months.

Dayvisferreras: Any chance the Caps change head coaches for next season? I can’t tell if it’s the roster underachieving on offense or Carbery’s coaching system.

I suppose it’s possible that GM Brian MacLellan feels a coaching change is needed but I wouldn’t be expecting it to happen.  This is a coach who was well-known for getting lots of his groups offensively and while yes, the Capitals are struggling considerably on that front, I don’t think a whole lot can be pinned on him.

For me, this is more of a roster composition issue.  They have plenty of high-priced talent but a lot of them are in the downswing of their careers.  Going into the season, their top three centers were someone coming off major hip surgery, a veteran who had made it known he wanted to be traded, and one who was non-tendered in 2022.  With due respect to those players who are all NHL talents, centers are play-drivers and going into this season with some big question marks in those spots is risky.  That’s the fault of the GM, not the coach.  Meanwhile, on the wing, it’s a pretty old group as well.  Eventually, some fall-off was reasonably expected.

On the back end, how much firepower do they have?  John Carlson isn’t a top-end point producer as he was before but he’s still above-average.  Rasmus Sandin has some upside offensively but is still developing.  That’s about it in terms of offensive ability; most of their other options are more defensive types.  It’s hard to get much going in transition when you don’t necessarily have the defense that can kickstart that or some consistent options down the middle to drive that attack.

With their aging roster, they need an influx of speed and creativity.  If they can get that, I think you’ll see a better offensive performance from the Capitals moving forward with Carbery still at the helm.

Sunshine swede: Any chance that Florida choose to trade Reinhart at the deadline if they get a good package in return and feel they can’t afford to extend him? Or Montour/Forsling?

From a long-term asset perspective, the idea of getting value for any of Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, or Gustav Forsling over losing them for nothing but the vacated cap space makes sense on paper.  However, it would be shocking to see any of them moved over the next few days.

First, at this point, I don’t think the Panthers are at the point where they know they can’t bring back any of the players under any circumstances.  Can they keep all three?  That seems iffy but which one can’t they keep?  That’s far from being determined.  If they put pen to paper on long-term extensions with two of the three, then the idea of moving the other becomes a little more plausible as you’d be reasonably certain that you wouldn’t be able to keep the third one.

But even having said that, Florida’s a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.  Can they justify taking a key player away from their group and weakening their chances in the name of asset management?  That’s a tough sell to make.  If they were a bubble team, even in the spot their state counterpart in Tampa Bay is, such a move is defensible.  But when you’re battling for the top spot in the league and have eyes on playing into June, GM Bill Zito will be solely focused on adding to his core group, not hedging his bets about free agency in July.

RipperMagoo: To keep the game moving, what do you think of icing and offside resulting in loss of possession by the offending team? The defending team then gets the puck behind their net and the offending team has to clear the offensive zone.

This feels like a creative solution to a problem that I’m not sure many would necessarily agree exists.  I don’t see too many complaints about pace of play or game lengths going wildly beyond the planned television block.  I also think there are a lot of coaches who wouldn’t be fond of this rule as on icings, they’d lose the advantages of line matching against a tired group and choosing what side to take the draw on.  We already see a good chunk of something like this on delayed offside calls and an increase in that isn’t necessarily the end of the world but if the defending team has to take the puck behind the net first, it might actually slow things down as they’ll want to regroup, maybe get a line change in, etc.

If you’re looking to shave a few minutes off the average game length, why not just bring back the old hurry-up faceoff rule?  Instituted in 2002, teams had eight seconds to make a change after a whistle and then five seconds to line up for the draw before the puck was dropped.  When actually followed, the amount of dead time between whistles went down while we even had the odd calamitous draw where one team wasn’t even at the dot when the puck was dropped.  Of course, it wasn’t enforced too strictly and quietly went away.  But even then, I could see broadcasters taking issue with that as it would reduce the opportunities for replays and between-whistle advertisements.

Maybe it’s just me but I find games are fairly fast-paced as it is with fairly frequent multi-minute stretches without a whistle.  A period from start to finish generally doesn’t take much more than 40 minutes to complete and often comes in quite lower than that.  Points for creativity but I can’t see this gaining a lot of traction.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.