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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Zach Werenski’s Norris candidacy, forecasting the next contract for Marco Rossi, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we’ll run one more next weekend as well.

Gmm8811: It’s looking like the Broberg/Holloway offer sheets have worked out really well for the Blues. Do you foresee more GM’s taking a harder look at that option in the future? Thoughts on next year’s steals?

At this point, the Blues certainly have to be happy with how things turned out.  Philip Broberg is a legitimate top-four defender for them and Dylan Holloway has blown past his career bests offensively and turned into a capable top-six winger.  For what it’s worth, Edmonton pivoted relatively well with their low-cost replacements of Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin, given the circumstances.  Those two aren’t playing at the level Broberg and Holloway are now but they are playing to the level those two likely would have performed at had they stayed with the Oilers.

That type of success story should make general managers a bit more willing to look into offer sheets as an option although I do think more of them get floated around than we ever see.  We only find out when one is signed, not when one is discussed between teams and agents.  With another fair-sized jump expected in the salary cap, there’s definitely going to be a chance for a strategic offer sheet or two this summer.

The challenge is finding a team that will be cap-strapped early in free agency.  There will be plenty, sure, but identifying them now isn’t as easy as there are many signings and trades to be made over the next six months.  It’s also finding a younger player who wants a shorter-term deal as with the divisor for offer sheet compensation only being a maximum of five (even on a contract longer than that) cranks up the draft pick cost too high to be worthwhile.

If Florida finds a way to re-sign or replace both Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett, they’re going to have to look at low-cost deals to round out their roster.  That could make someone like Mackie Samoskevich a bit vulnerable as the Panthers would probably prefer a cheap one-year contract while he could command a two-year or three-year deal from a team that sees him playing a bigger role and is willing to pay him accordingly.  If Seattle re-signs or replaces Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev, that might push them into a lower-cost deal with Ryker Evans so I think teams would sniff around that but he seems less likely.  If the Stars are active between retaining or replacing their veterans, they could be vulnerable if they force themselves to pursue shorter-term agreements with their RFAs.  Wyatt Johnston probably isn’t attainable but if there’s a team that really believes in Mavrik Bourque, I could see him garnering offer sheet interest as well.

Emoney123: Is there a trade or potential 2025 free agent the Flyers can pair with Michkov?

From a UFA perspective, it depends on whether Philadelphia views Mikko Rantanen as a center, a position he has played off and on with Colorado.  If Rantanen wants to go for top dollar (which likely takes him off the table to re-sign), the Flyers are one of the teams that would have enough cap space that they could plausibly afford him without needing to do much subtraction from their roster.  I suppose Mitch Marner fits as well if Matvei Michkov switches to the left wing as a left-hand shot but is that too much raw playmaking on one line?  That said, if the Flyers had a shot at adding a top talent like that, do it and figure the rest out later might be the best approach there.

On the trade front, Vancouver seems like the team to try to make a move with if they ultimately decide to move one of Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller (who has full no-trade protection).  Legitimate top centers don’t come available too often and while both players have recent question marks, they also have a proven track record of recent production.  The cost for either would be significant, both in terms of current and future assets and with the Flyers still being in the build-up stage, a swap like that might not be at the most optimal time.  But again, with the scarcity of those types of players being traded, that shouldn’t dissuade GM Daniel Briere from inquiring at least about what it would cost to get one of them.

bottlesup: It might be a bit early, but is it safe to throw Werenski’s name into the Norris conversation?

I’d say it’s very safe to have Werenski in that mix.  He’s among the league leaders among blueliners for points, plays in all situations (all-around ability is right in the criteria for the award), and leads the NHL in average ice time.  When you’re in the mix offensively with the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, you’re definitely doing something right.  He has undoubtedly played a significant role in the Blue Jackets surprisingly finding themselves in the battle for a playoff spot at the midway mark of the season, an outcome few would have seen coming.

I expect that their playoff situation will ultimately dictate whether he wins the award.  That, and staying healthy, of course.  It’s not unprecedented that a non-playoff blueliner wins it as Erik Karlsson did just two years ago.  However, his numbers were so far and beyond the rest (he had 25 points more than any other defender) that they were enough of a difference-maker.  Werenski isn’t going to have that luxury.  If the Blue Jackets come up short of a playoff spot, he’ll probably land plenty of second and third-place votes but that won’t be enough to win.  But if they get in, he’ll be the driving reason why which should sway lots of first-place votes his way and make the difference.

Zakis: What does a Marco Rossi extension look like?

Why are the Iowa Wild perpetually bad and has that had influence on prospects seemingly not reaching another level (thinking Hunt, Lambos, Jiricek)?

Back in the summer, I basically pegged Rossi’s range as a bridge deal starting with a three or a long-term deal starting with a five if he had a season similar to 2023-24 this year.  That clearly isn’t happening since he’s already nearly matched his point total from a year ago in half the games.  That’s certainly going to change the numbers.  The bridge deal now will probably start with a four and a longer-term agreement that buys out UFA years coming closer to the $7MM range depending on how many years it buys out.  (And if he produces at an even higher rate in the second half, those numbers will go up even more).

Despite the strong showing this season, I tend to lean toward the bridge deal for Rossi.  There has been a lot of smoke about the Wild not being fully sold on Rossi (who’s undersized for a center) and while the team has tried to quash that, I don’t think they’re going from being uncertain about him to handing him a long-term deal.  I also expect Minnesota to take advantage of their cap space and try to make a splash or two in free agency (or on the trade front) that might push them to have to go that route anyway.

As for the farm team, I didn’t realize the history was that bad.  For those who don’t follow Iowa, in their first 11 years of existence, they made the playoffs once and lost in the play-in round once.  There has been considerable turnover in terms of their coaching along the way as well.  Without watching them closely, I can’t begin to assess what’s happening beyond simple guesswork which doesn’t do any good.

I don’t think it’s fair to put David Jiricek in that group considering he’s barely been with them for a month but I would suggest that yes, a continuous losing environment doesn’t help from a development perspective.  Sometimes it’s good to have more prospects meaning the youngsters are getting playing time but I believe there’s value in being in a good spot, playing meaningful hockey, and seeing some playoff action.  It’s hard to objectively state that yes, that held some players back from getting to another level – it’s not that simple, obviously – but I’d say it hasn’t helped.

Unclemike1526: Not being able to watch the games this year, I’m just curious is Soderblom that much better or is it just a mirage? After being able to watch the last three games I’m not exactly missing watching them anyway. It would be nice to get an opinion. I’d dare say right now Soderblom is the best G on the Hawks since Laurent Brossoit can’t play. As bad as Soderblom was last year it’s hard to believe he is that much better.

It’s a combination of a couple of things.  Arvid Soderblom is still young (he’s 25) and it was reasonable to think he’d bounce back, at least to a point after a tough 2023-24 season.  Also, year-to-year volatility for goalies is pretty common, especially younger ones; if veterans can have big swings in performance, so can the unproven ones.  I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a mirage, it’s just a young goalie who hopefully improved after a tough year and with less than 20 appearances, it’s still too early to say much conclusively.

With Brossoit out and Petr Mrazek a veteran placeholder, you’re absolutely right in that Soderblom is their best option right now.  And with the Blackhawks going nowhere in the standings this year, they should be going to Soderblom more often right now so that they can better assess him.  There’s a reason why he was their goalie of the short-term future not long ago and a reason why they had to go add Brossoit in the summer since he played so poorly last year.  Right now, they need to get a better sense of what they have and see if he’s still part of the future plans.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the cap crunch the Panthers will be facing as they look to re-sign two key unrestricted free agents this summer, options for the Jets to solve their roster needs, and much more.  With so many questions this time around, we’ll break them into three separate pieces instead of the usual two.

FeeltheThunder: As a Tampa fan, I’m wondering the type of combo Tampa will go for in the trade deadline. Tampa is a much-improved team from last year (night and day, really). I feel Tampa may go for one or two forwards to add more additional depth to their middle/bottom six group like they did a few years ago with Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul (that’s worked out quite well). They have a pretty good defensive group overall and have some depth so I don’t know if adding a defensive piece is necessary. What do you think of the combo they’ll go with and who may the targets be?

I feel one name for starters (if available) Jake Evans from Montreal has a number of qualities Tampa tends to aim for in a player and Tampa/Montreal have traded in the past.

In follow-up comments, you also mentioned Luke Kunin (who I’ve tossed out before as a possible fit for them) and Will Cuylle (who might be one of the more untouchable Rangers at the moment).  I still like Kunin as a fit for them.  If memory serves, I had Mikael Granlund on that list previously, assuming they can make the money work with the Sharks out of retention slots.  I think he’s still a good fit for them too.

Evans is a good one as well although the asking price on him is going to be fairly high with the start he’s off to this season.  At a $1.7MM cap charge, he’ll be affordable for a lot of contenders which will drive up the acquisition cost.  If Buffalo sells, Jordan Greenway could be viewed as trying to refill the Tanner Jeannot slot, probably at a much lesser price point than what was paid to Nashville to get Jeannot.  Another center that could interest them is Sean Kuraly, someone who can kill penalties and play with an edge.  If Utah sells, Nick Bjugstad could also fit the bill.

If they go for two forwards, it’ll be a center/winger combo (and if they wound up with someone like Kunin who plays all three positions), even better for them.  Aside from Granlund, all are cheap enough that Tampa Bay could afford them outright without necessarily needing retention at the trade deadline if they’re able to stay healthy between now and then.

Having said that, it wouldn’t shock me if one of their additions is on the back end, looking for a third-pairing upgrade.  Someone who can kill penalties, play with an edge, and give them a bit more depth in case injuries arise.  In essence, something like the David Savard move a few years ago (just not at the cost of a first-round pick).  Depending on what happens with Savard in Montreal and what they look to do up front, he could be a potentially plausible fit again.

Sunshine swede: Do you think Panthers can extend both Ekblad and Bennett? Guess Bennett will earn a raise, while Ekblad might have a cut. What do you think about their next deals?

Keeping one is definitely doable but both could be a challenge.  Per PuckPedia, they have $72.5MM in commitments on the books for next season already to 15 players.  If the salary cap lands around the $92MM range (some could see it going higher but for now, that’s the 5% allowable increase), that gives them a little less than $20MM to work with, a bit less than that if they want to leave themselves some in-season wiggle room.

Coming into the season, Sam Bennett was probably looking at a long-term deal in the $6.5MM range.  Given the dearth of impact centers set to become an unrestricted free agent and the fact he’s on pace for career highs offensively across the board, it stands to reason that he could push past $7MM on his next deal.  Frankly, something along the lines of Aaron Ekblad’s current price tag ($7.5MM) wouldn’t shock me given his playoff success.

As for Ekblad, he’s also set to benefit from a fairly weak UFA market; it’s basically between him and Neal Pionk for the top veteran right-shot option available.  While he’s not the big point producer he was earlier in his career, he still plays a big defensive role, logs heavy minutes, and is on pace for around 40 points again.  I could see a small cut in his pay but I could also see a long-term deal at that price tag again depending on how many teams are serious about bidding for him.

If the two of them cost, say, $14MM combined, now you’re down to only around $5MM to re-sign Mackie Samoskevich and sign a couple of depth forwards and depth defenders.  That’d make it tough to do anything to materially improve the roster.  Of course, losing one of those two would certainly hurt things as well.  I think the likeliest outcome is that they only keep one but if they really want to make their roster more top-heavy, there’s a way to keep both of them around and then restructure a bit once their $14.5MM goalie tandem sees their contract expire in 2026.

2012orioles: Is a Jakob Chychrun extension with the Capitals going to happen?

Last month, Chychrun indicated to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox that he could see himself re-signing with Washington.  And frankly, it’s easy to see why.  The Caps have been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the season with their roster makeover during the summer paying dividends with Chychrun playing a big role in that.  He’s on pace for a career year offensively with 11 goals and 14 assists in just 33 games.  His shooting percentage (15.1%) is a lot higher than his career average so there might be a bit of regression coming on the goal front but even so, he should blow past his personal benchmark of 41 points as long as he stays healthy.  In a contract year, that’s great news for him.

That next contract is going to be quite pricey, however.  He was probably in the $7MM range heading into the season and with the year he’s having offensively and the talk of a salary cap increase of more than 5%, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his next AAV start with an eight.  That might seem high but he’ll be 27 when he hits the open market; whoever signs him will be getting several of his prime years.

Can the Capitals be the team that gives him that contract?  I think they can be.  Per PuckPedia, they have $63.7MM on the books for 2025-26 with 14 players signed.  Granted, they need to sign a goalie tandem that will cost a lot more than the sub-$2MM they’re paying this year but there’s room for another big-ticket deal on the books.  Having said that, a Chychrun extension would push them past $30MM (probably closer to $32MM) on their back end so they may want to trim a bit.  But they can afford it and he’s a very good fit.  I think they can get it done.

DevilShark: What do you see as Hughes III ceiling in Norris voting this year? Could he crack the top 10?

Let’s recap his first half of the season.  Luke Hughes has three goals and 15 assists in 33 games so far.  Decent offensive numbers, sure, but hardly worthy of award consideration.  It’s even a step back from his per-game production from last season.  On top of that, his playing time is down by nearly two minutes a night from last year.  He sits fifth among New Jersey defenders in ATOI as a result.

Is this realistically the profile of a player who should be in consideration for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman?  Logically, doesn’t Hughes need to be New Jersey’s top blueliner to be even considered for the award?  While it’s worth noting that the Devils run three very balanced pairings, I don’t see a case to be made for him to land on a ballot let alone finish in the top ten in voting.

It wouldn’t shock me for Hughes to one day land in there.  Once he takes on a bigger role and if he can become the type of highly productive blueliner many project him to be, he’ll get into that range.  But that’s not going to happen this season.

rpoabr: What’s the trade that puts the LA Kings into true Cup contention? Doughty coming back soon (hopefully) should already be a boost.

Drew Doughty’s eventual return will be the biggest boost they get.  Adding a legitimate number one blueliner to the roster puts the rest of the back end in a more optimal spot on the depth chart and gives them a bit more depth in general.  If they stay healthy the rest of the way, they probably don’t need to make a move to add defensive depth so we can scratch that off the list of trade options.

But here’s the problem.  When Doughty returns (probably later this month), that’s the end of their cap space.  The Kings are operating in LTIR which means they haven’t been banking cap space.  Right now, they have lots to spend with an LTIR pool of more than $10MM.  When he comes back, they have to start trimming players to get back into cap compliance.  That puts them in a spot where they’re going to have to match money or get double retention on a player.  That means there isn’t a trade available to them this season that’s going to vault them into true Cup contention.

What could help put them into at least semi-contender status would be adding a top-six winger to help get them out of the middle of the pack offensively.  Making the money work would require double retention but players like Jason Zucker and Kyle Palmieri come to mind, players that will boost their middle six and should be acquirable for a package starting with a second-round pick.  But even with that, when you’re in a division with Vegas and Edmonton, they’re going to be hard-pressed to get to true Stanley Cup contention no matter what move(s) they make.

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