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Peter Chiarelli

Edmonton Parts Ways With Analytics Guru Tyler Dellow

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers will not renew the contract of statistical consultant Tyler Dellow. He becomes the second such consultant removed from his position in the last week, joining Matt Pfeffer, who was dismissed by Montreal. Ironically, both Edmonton and Montreal executed trades this summer that have been widely panned by statistical analyst types in the media.

Some may view this as a movement away from the use of advanced stats in the sport after seeing several clubs hire analysts in recent years. But I don’t see that as the case. It’s more likely that Dellow’s departure has as much to do with Peter Chiarelli not being the GM who hired him than an abandonment of advanced stats.

Pfeffer’s dismissal gained particular notoriety after a THN interview in which the former consultant seemed to suggest his vocal argument against the Weber-for-Subban deal might have led to his ouster. He also appeared to describe Weber as an “average” defenseman, a comment he would later explain via twitter was actually a description of Weber’s recent play based on one limited statistic.

Dellow was hired two summers ago, primarily at the behest of then head coach Dallas Eakins and assistant general manager Scott Howson. With Eakins long gone and Chiarelli now running the hockey operations in Edmonton, it’s probably not a surprise the club chose not to renew Dellow’s contract.

Western Conference Notes: Schmaltz, Subban, Larsson

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Evidently the new Las Vegas expansion team is wasting little time getting up and running. As we mentioned yesterday, the newest entry in the Western Conference was closing in on naming the first GM in franchise history. Today we learned a press conference has indeed been scheduled for tomorrow at 1 pm PST where club owner Bill Foley is expected to announce his choice. Speculation, and that’s all it is at this point, is that George McPhee, formerly the longtime GM of the Washington Capitals and currently serving as an adviser with the Islanders under Garth Snow, will be named Las Vegas’ inaugural GM.

More from the wild, wild West:

  • Chicago GM Stan Bowman deserves a lot of credit for maintaining the Hawks presence as a Stanley Cup contender despite annual salary dumps, including this summer’s trades of Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Shaw. His ability to constantly juggle his roster while remaining cap compliant is due to the constant infusion of affordable young talent the organization continues to find and develop. Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun Times profiles several youngsters who aim to make the Hawks roster for the 2016-17 season.
  • Addressing questions from the reader mailbag, Adam Vingan of the Tennessean speculates how the Predators will employ shiny new toy, P.K. Subban. Like many, I thought the Predators got the better end of the Subban-for-Shea Weber trade. Subban is an electrifying talent still in his prime at 27 while Weber would seem to be on the downside as he approaches his 31st birthday. Plus with another decade remaining on Weber’s contract with a cap hit in excess of $7.8MM per, the Canadiens took on a healthy amount of risk on the back end of his deal.
  • From the same mailbag, Vingan also deals with the same tough choices every NHL GM will have to face between now and the expansion draft; namely which quality NHL player or players will they leave exposed. The league certainly went out of its way to ensure Las Vegas will be able to add legitimate talent and a lot of teams will be in the unenviable position of allowing a good player to leave for nothing.
  • The Subban deal wasn’t the only blockbuster trade completed this summer and it may not even by the one most panned by critics. Nearly every pundit thought the Devils pilfered LW Taylor Hall from Edmonton with Adam Larsson the return going to the Oilers. But it may not be as bad as it seems. Bottom line is GM Peter Chiarelli absolutely needed to upgrade his defense corps and likely didn’t have a lot of palatable options with which to do so. Plenty of young, RFA defensemen have been rumored to possibly be available via trade but exactly none have been moved to date despite the abundant need for quality blueliners around the league. Plus, unlike those RFA’s who would need new contracts with salaries inflating, Larsson comes at the beginning of a freshly inked deal that pays him a shade over $4.1MM on average for the next five seasons. That cost control has value. Fact is, Chiarelli might have made the best deal possible at the time, even if it ends up being a net negative in the long run.

Montreal Asked For Draisaitl, 4th Overall, Plus for Subban

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After today’s Taylor Hall and PK Subban trades, Oilers fans might be wondering why the Oilers couldn’t get a deal done for Subban. Well here’s why: TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reported Wednesday night that the asking price for the stud defenceman was Leon Draisaitl, the 4th overall pick which ultimately became Jesse Puljujärvi, one of Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse, plus more.

Klefbom is the Oilers top defenceman next to Andrej Sekera and newly acquired Adam Larsson. Nurse is a highly promising former 7th overall pick who played most of last season in the NHL with mixed results but should develop hugely next season. The Oilers were likely not willing to part with such a big part of their future blue-line to improve it now.

Draisaitl showed massive improvement last season, cracking the 50-point barrier on a line with the now traded duo of Hall and Teddy Purcell. The big center can play both center and wing, and is expected to play a key role in the upcoming season in the Oilers top 6.

Those two pieces already represent a large trade value, before we get to the just-drafted Puljujärvi. The Finnish forward unexpectedly fell to 4th overall and is likely to play in the Oilers top 9 this season.

With those pieces plus the mystery of what “more” could mean, it’s understandable why the Oilers passed on Subban. However, it should be asked which group would help Edmonton turn the corner this season: Hall and Subban, or Drasaitl, Klefbom, Puljujärvi, and Larsson.

The answer to that debate can never be known. Edmonton passed on trading a massive haul for Subban to trade Hall for Larsson.

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers were expected to be more competitive in 2015-16, thanks to phenom Connor McDavid, a new coach and GM, and off-season acquisitions Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, and Griffin Reinhart. Unfortunately, McDavid was hurt in early November, and by the time he returned in February, the Oilers were out of the playoff picture. Reinhart struggled early and spent the middle part of the season in the AHL. Top defender Oscar Klefbom spent more than half the year on IR after a broken knuckle and two successive staph infections. The Oilers struggled and finished 29th, mainly because of injuries and a porous defence. Stop me if you’ve heard this story before.

GM Peter Chiarelli has made several moves, with mixed results. Acquiring Talbot for picks has given the Oilers their starter for the next several seasons. Sekera is a solid second-pairing defenceman, but the Oilers are still missing two top 4 defensive options. The Reinhart trade is tough to call at this time, because of the Oilers depth of left-handed defensemen and Reinhart not being NHL-ready.

Adding Eric Gryba, Zack Kassian, and Patrick Maroon made the Oilers harder to play against, something that has sorely been missing in Oil Country. Big center Leon Draisaitl rebounded from a tough rookie season to put up 51 points despite spending a month in the AHL. Former 6th round pick in 2010 Brandon Davidson made the team as the 8th defenceman and played his way into a top 4 role, earning an extension and praise from around the league.

Chiarelli compared the team’s improvement to a “taller midget”.

Cap space: $10.3MM, 22 players under contract

Key RFAs: none

Other RFAs: W Iiro Pakarinen, D Jordan Oesterle, D Adam Clendening, LW Luke Gazdic, D David Musil

Clendening and Gazdic were not qualified and will become UFAs.

Key UFAs: none

Other UFAs: D Eric Gryba, RW Adam Cracknell, D Adam Pardy, D Niki Nikitin

Outlook: The Oilers don’t have any key players to re-sign, but need to drastically improve their back end through trades or free agency. Watch for Chiarelli to be involved in a few dealings around the draft.

High profile names like Travis Hamonic, PK Subban, Tyson Barrie, Jacob Trouba, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Seth Jones, Jason Demers, and Justin Faulk have all been linked to the Oilers at different points. While the ask for those players would be high, the Oilers have organizational depth in NHL forwards and prospect defensemen.

Besides defence, the Oilers need a right-handed centre with skill, more depth on right wing, and a backup goalie to allow Laurent Brossoit to develop further in the AHL. Big UFA winger Milan Lucic is a player of interest, as he would allow the Oilers to trade one of Jordan Eberle or Benoit Pouliot for defensive help.

Former first overall pick Nail Yakupov asked for a trade, and will likely be dealt on the draft floor. TSN 1260’s Jason Gregor reported the Ducks and Oilers were close to a trade involving Yakupov and Pouliot heading to Anaheim, but Pouliot’s season-ending injury ended those talks. In the end, Maroon was sent to Edmonton for project prospect Martin Gernat and a 4th round pick.

Former captain Andrew Ference will likely spend the year on LTIR, freeing up an additional $3.25MM under the cap. Ference underwent hip surgery in March.

Fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi will likely make the team, but could spend some time in Bakersfield to adjust to North America. In any case, don’t expect any other rookies to crack the opening night roster, but college free agent signing Drake Caggiula and AHLers Oesterle, Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev, Bogdan Yakimov, and Jujhar Khaira should see some NHL time during the season. Finnish winger Jere Sallinen was signed from the KHL and could be a dark horse to make the team as an extra forward.

Expansion draft wise, the Oilers are likely able to protect everyone they want to on their current roster with the exception of Brossoit, but he won’t be among the top 3 goaltenders available based on his struggles at the NHL level. Issues could come up after a summer of improving the roster, but Chiarelli won’t be too concerned about that yet.

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