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NHL Approves Changes To Draft Lottery

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The NHL’s board of governors has officially voted to approve the changes to the draft lottery that were proposed earlier this month, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. Three major changes will be implemented:

  1. The number of picks determined by lottery draws will drop from three to two starting in 2021.
  2. A team winning the lottery can only move up a maximum of ten spots starting in 2022.
  3. A team can only win a draft lottery twice in a five-year period starting in 2022.

Past wins will not be included once the five-year period is implemented. Because of the first rule, a situation like last year can no longer occur, when the Detroit Red Wings, clearly the last-place team in the NHL, were knocked to fourth overall. Teams can now only drop a maximum of two spots, meaning the worst team in the league is guaranteed a top-three pick. The second change also means fewer teams are in contention for the first-overall selection.

It will be interesting to see the effect of the first change this year, given there is no clear consensus at the top of the draft rankings. The Buffalo Sabres look like a lock to finish at the bottom of the standings after losing their 14th in a row last night, meaning they will get a top-three pick. The question becomes whether who they have at the top of their board is the same as the other bottom-feeding teams who will have a good chance at one of those top-two spots.

When the lottery changes were first reported, we polled the PHR community to see if they believed there should be a lottery at all. Nearly 45% of voters believe it should be solely based on standings.

2021 NHL Draft Unlikely To Be Pushed Back

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March 16: Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet confirms that the draft will not be pushed back. The event will go on as scheduled near the end of July.

March 9: It had been trending this way for a while, but Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the 2021 NHL Entry Draft is not expected to be pushed back. Though there was considerable support from general managers all across the league, the substantial obstacles will make the league keep the event scheduled for this July. Concerns over service time, draft rights, and delaying the top prospects from an October NHL debut were all among the many complexities moving the draft would have created.

Of course, this decision will not come without ramifications. The OHL, one of the biggest sources of NHL draft picks every year, has not played a single game this season. Even if they do sneak in a shortened schedule later this spring, evaluation of the prospects will not be nearly as detailed as a normal year. Some top draft prospects from the league have taken their talents overseas in the interim, but for many prospective mid-round picks, it has been a full calendar year without any competitive action.

The WHL and QMJHL have also not played their full allotment of games, while the NCAA season was also truncated. Potential first-overall pick Owen Power played just 24 games with the University of Michigan during his freshman season. Compare that to someone like Quinn Hughes, who got 37 NCAA games with Michigan plus a World Junior tournament during his draft year. While the consensus is pretty clear on Power’s upside, what about some of the lesser-known college names like Dovar Tinling, who managed just 11 games with the University of Vermont. He was included in NHL Central Scouting’s players to watch as a second or third-round candidate, but it will be extremely difficult to evaluate his true potential at this point. Tinling only just turned 18 a few days ago.

There are names like Mason McTavish, who is still a potential first-round pick but had to play in Switzerland this season as he waited for the OHL to resume. Certainly, a dozen games in Europe won’t give scouts the same amount of information that a full season in the OHL would have.

With the draft staying put, it will be interesting to see how valuable picks are viewed at the upcoming deadline. There’s a chance that first-round talents slip through to the mid-rounds, but also an increased chance of completely whiffing with a player that hasn’t competed in a year.

League Notes: Draft, Alignment, Playoffs

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The 2021 NHL Entry Draft is not expected to be moved, deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirmed today during his media availability with Gary Bettman. The reported changes concerning the lottery will be put to a full board of governors vote next week after the executive committee approved it recently. The full draft event, which is scheduled for July 23-24, will happen without the benefit of a full year of in-person scouting and could certainly provide some fireworks.

More notes from the availability today:

  • The league is expecting to return to the previous divisional alignment next season, though there will still be the change of the Arizona Coyotes moving to the Central Division and the Seattle Kraken debuting in the Pacific. While there has been some excitement about the new geographic rivalries created this season, the plan has always been to go back to the previous divisions once things got back to normal.
  • On the note of the Kraken, Bettman explained that both the rink in Seattle and the one on Long Island are on schedule to open in time to start the 2021-22 season. Climate Pledge Arena (Kraken) and UBS Arena (Islanders) will give updated homes and new destinations while hopefully providing some stability for the two franchises.
  • When asked about where the winner of the North Division will play once the NHL is down to four teams in the playoffs, Daly explained there is still some time before a decision has to be made. The Conference Finals round is scheduled for some time in mid-June, meaning they won’t have to make a decision on whether the Canadian team will have to come to the U.S. to play for a while yet.

Brent Johnson Commits To The University Of North Dakota

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The University of North Dakota is one of the top programs in all of college hockey and their roster always includes a plethora of NHL Draft selections. However, the team is about to lose much of its core in departing seniors Jordan Kawaguchi, Collin Adams (NYI), Grant Mismash (NSH), and Matt Kiersted and a trio of highly-regarded underclassmen likely to turn pro in Shane Pinto (OTT), Jacob Bernard-Docker (OTT), and Jasper Weatherby (SJS). That also doesn’t include the pre-season transfer of Jonny Tychonik (OTT) and dismissal of Mitchell Miller, both on the back end. Even with 2020 fifth overall pick Jake Sanderson (OTT) and others sticking around, North Dakota is in need of an influx of talent.

Fortunately, that shouldn’t be a problem for the program. With a strong recruiting class already lined up for next season, you can now add Brent Johnson to the list of incoming NHL hopefuls. The skilled 2021 draft-eligible prospect has announced his commitment to North Dakota, moving from the USHL’s Sioux Falls Stampede to the NCAA’s (former) Fighting Sioux. Johnson, 17, has been one of the best rookies in the USHL this season, currently ranked sixth among all defensemen with 24 points in 36 games. He is also among the top five in goals, assists, points, and plus/minus for Sioux Falls. Johnson has played so well in fact, that he de-committed from Arizona State University when major programs like North Dakota began to show interest. It’s not only NCAA programs that have been watching the dynamic defender either; he is currently considered a top-100 player in the 2021 draft class by a number of scouting services, with some believing he could go as early as the top of the second round and none expecting him to fall out of the third round. A mobile, right-shot defenseman with offensive instincts, Johnson checks a number of boxes for NHL clubs and is now headed down an elite developmental path at UND.

If Johnson enrolls at North Dakota next season, he will join an impressive group of freshman. A fellow defenseman, Scott Morrow, is the highlight of the group as a potential first-round pick this year. In fact, righties Morrow and Johnson could be likely to pair up with Sanderson and Tyler Kleven (OTT) as the Fighting Hawks’ new top-four – perhaps the Senators will draft them as well. Also heading to Grand Forks next year are previously-drafted forwards Jackson Kunz (VAN), Matteo Costantini (BUF), Jake Schmaltz (BOS), and Ethan Bowen (ANA). If Johnson instead opts to play another season of junior in the USHL, he appears to be the current gem of North Dakota’s 2022 recruiting class and will still have an opportunity to play with most if not all of the aforementioned players.

 

Poll: Do You Like The Draft Lottery?

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The NHL is making changes to the draft lottery again. Reports emerged today that several tweaks to the process are being put forward to the league’s board of governors for a vote, with some coming into effect for 2021 and some for 2022. But is it changes the league needs, or to do away with the lottery entirely?

Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic wrote a piece on the potential changes last month and noted how frequently over the last few seasons teams have moved up a considerable number of picks. He notes that the “final straw” for some was Detroit failing to receive even a top-three pick after finishing dead last in the NHL with a historically-bad record. 17-49-5 was good for the fourth selection, a brutal punishment for a team that is really just starting a true rebuild. The idea that the Red Wings “aren’t tanking” may rub people the wrong way, since it’s obvious their management wasn’t trying to make the playoffs last season, but many believe there’s no way the team should have been pushed that far down.

While the proposed changes would help somewhat—holding the lottery for only two picks instead of three means the Red Wings would have been guaranteed a top-three selection—the question still remains: should the league do away with the lottery entirely?

Should the worst team in the league be rewarded with the top pick every year? Should there be simple restrictions like no first-overall two years in a row? What other ideas are there for how to tweak the lottery to make it better? Cast a vote below but then make sure to share your thoughts in the comments.

Do you like the NHL draft lottery?
No, it should just be based on standings. 44.89% (488 votes)
Yes, but it needs some tweaks. 38.73% (421 votes)
Yes, it makes the best of a difficult situation. 14.44% (157 votes)
Other (leave in comments) 1.93% (21 votes)
Total Votes: 1,087

[Mobile users click here to vote]

NHL Proposing Changes To Draft Lottery

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2:45pm: Those issues were quickly resolved. Friedman reports that most of the changes will not take place until the 2022 draft and previous lottery victories will not be included. The 2021 lottery will indeed go down to two picks instead of three, should the changes be approved.

2:05pm: The NHL appears to be changing the draft lottery once again. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that in a memo circulated to clubs today, the league has proposed several changes. Teams would now be limited to no more than two lottery wins in a five-year period, would only be allowed to jump ten spots with a win, and only two picks (instead of three) will be determined with a lottery win. The changes are still subject to approval from the league’s board of governors.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet adds that news of these changes coming out is another sign that the draft will not be pushed back, though the official announcement has not been made on that. There was ample support from teams for the event to be moved so that there is more time to scout the 2021 draft class, but it would be very complicated to do so and needed to be bargained with the NHLPA.

The lottery changes—which certainly will make things more complicated if instituted—seem designed to prevent teams that barely miss the playoffs from winning the top spot, while also punishing a team that tears it all down to stay at the bottom of the league for several years. That five-year period will be a very important thing to remember for clubs in a rebuild and could block them from even having a chance at some of the best incoming players.

Discussion over the lottery goes back a while, but in October it was reported that the Detroit Red Wings were leading the charge on changes. Detroit themselves are in a rebuild phase and dead last in the league in 2019-20, but failed to receive a top-three pick when the New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators won the lottery spots. That would mean if these rules are immediately put into action (and retroactively considered), the Red Wings would still be eligible for picks. The New Jersey Devils, however, who are near the bottom of the standings once again, would not be eligible to win a lottery pick if their previous wins were taken into account. The Devils won the first overall pick in both 2017 (Nico Hischier) and 2019 (Jack Hughes), so they may be ineligible this time around.

There are no specifics released yet on whether the new rules would use previous outcomes or if they would start new in 2021, but it’s clear that changes of some sort will come in the future.

WHL Notes: NHL Loans, Guenther, Knak

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The Western Hockey League is finally back in action. Nearly a year since the top junior league canceled the remainder of its 2019-20 season due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the WHL has returned to play. The league announced a 24-game season back in early January with a to-be-determined late-February start date and that date was Friday, as four Central Division teams matched up. As one might expect, the re-opening of the WHL has a number of previously displaced players rushing back to their respective teams. Below are the signed NHL prospects who had been playing in the AHL that have been officially reassigned to the WHL:

Adam Beckman, Minnesota Wild –> Spokane Chiefs
Gianni Fairbrother, Montreal Canadiens –> Everett Silvertips
Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens –> Prince Albert Raiders
Ridly Greig, Ottawa Senators –> Brandon Wheat Kings
Ozzy Wiesblatt, San Jose Sharks –> Prince Albert Raiders
Tristen Robins, San Jose Sharks –> Saskatoon Blades

  • The WHL season may only be one day old, but the league’s leading scorer is a name to know. Dylan Guenther, a consensus top-ten prospect in the 2021 NHL Draft, started his campaign with the Edmonton Oil Kings with a pair of goals and a pair of assists to take the WHL’s top scoring spot. Guenther is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the WHL’s return, however brief, if the NHL does not postpone the 2021 draft. The top prospect was facing the possibility of missing out on his entire draft year, having only played in four games in the Alberta Junior Hockey League. While many CHL players jumped to the USHL this season, Guenther held out hope that the WHL would return and is now rewarded with 24 games to show what he can do. Likely a top-ten pick either way, the lack of certainty in this NHL draft class will now allow Guenther to fight his way into the top-five and potentially even to the top overall spot with an elite performance. A supremely skilled scoring winger, Guenther is the biggest name to watch in the WHL’s shortened season.
  • Another name to watch is Swiss forward Simon Knak. Despite some expectation that he would be selected last year in his first NHL Draft go-round, Knak slipped through the cracks. That was despite finding success in his first season in North America, recording 34 points in 49 games for the Portland Winterhawks. However, the draft dream is still alive. Knak has spent this season back home in Switzerland, suiting up for powerhouse HC Davos at the top level of the Swiss National League. He held his own too, recording eight points in 25 games in his first pro experience. Knack very easily could have stayed in Davos and continued his pro career. However, possibly inspired by his recent success as well as a strong run as captain of Switzerland’s U-20 team, Knak has decided to stay true to his plans and head back to Portland. Davos announced that Knak has been recalled from his loan and is returning to the WHL, hoping to catch the eye of NHL scouts by playing a top role for the Winterhawks. The question is whether he can do enough in a shortened season to earn a selection as an overage pick.

League Notes: Draft, Fines, AHL

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There’s been a lot of talk about the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and how it could be pushed back from this summer, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet examines just how difficult that would actually be in his latest 31 Thoughts column. Everyone agrees that it will be tough to properly assess players who haven’t had a chance to play much this season, but the draft has many other machinations that go along with it, including service time and rights retention.

There are real hurdles to overcome before the event is moved just like anything that needs to be negotiated between the NHL and NHLPA. For now, the draft is still scheduled to begin on July 23, just a few days after the Seattle Kraken enter as the league’s 32nd franchise and hold their expansion draft.

  • Vancouver Canucks forward Antoine Roussel has been fined $5,000 for roughing Edmonton Oilers forward Jesse Puljujarvi last night, the maximum allowable under the CBA. After a whistle, Roussel started throwing punches at Puljujarvi without the Edmonton forward wanting to engage in a fight. Roussel was also assessed a two-minute minor penalty on the play.
  • The AHL has postponed tonight’s game between the Iowa Wild and Texas Stars due to COVID-19 protocols affecting the Wild. The game has not been rescheduled yet. This postponement means that Texas will continue to wait for their next game after having last week’s match postponed due to inclement weather. The Stars haven’t played since February 13 and it is unclear if games on Friday and Saturday against Iowa will go ahead.

NHL Considering Postponing 2021 NHL Entry Draft

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As the Coronavirus pandemic continues to impact hockey at all levels, the NHL and its member teams have begun to discuss what to do about the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. If the draft proceeds as scheduled in July, teams will be facing an unprecedented lack of information on the eligible prospects. With the OHL and WHL yet to play this season, QMJHL teams limited to about 20 games or less thus far, and delays or cancellations in the NCAA, USHL, and throughout Europe, hardly any NHL draft-eligible has played a normal season. Expecting NHL teams to make educated selections comparable to a normal draft year at this point seems impossible. As a result, it should not come as a surprise that TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the league is discussing moving the date of the draft back, with teams expected to support the change.

In particular, Dreger notes that there have been discussions about pushing the draft scheduled for this summer all the way back to the following summer. This would allow for 2021 prospects to get in the full season that they have been denied this year before being selected. In this scenario, two drafts would potentially be held back-to-back in July of 2022, with 2021-eligible prospects selected first with an order determined by the 2020-21 final standings and then the second draft of 2022-eligible prospects determined as usual by the preceding season’s final standings. Of course, the NHL’s three-year window of draft eligibility could provide some interesting strategic decisions and quirky selections in regards to players passed over in the “2021” draft only to be selected just days or weeks later in the 2022 draft.

Dreger notes that draft details are collectively bargained and any changes to the dates or structure of the 2021 NHL Draft would need to be approved by the NHLPA. While the players’ union does not represent the interests of undrafted prospects, one would believe that they would go along with a decision to postpone the draft, if only to appease future constituents. At the end of the day, there is mutual interest between the NHL’s teams and the 2021 prospects to hold off on the draft until a more accurate profile can be had of all eligible players. Whether that means a delay of an entire year or possibly just until the developmental leagues can return to action for a few months early next season, it appears as though there is considerable support to push it down the line.

Snapshots: Myers, Entry Draft, Detroit

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Montreal Canadiens fans won’t want to hear it, but the NHL’s Department of Player Safety has ruled that Tyler Myers’ check on Joel Armia last night has been deemed legal and will not face supplementary discipline. As the video explains:

We have concluded that though there is head contact on this hit, the head is not the main point of contact. Myers hits through Armia’s core, making substantial contact with Armia’s chest and right shoulder. Armia’s head and body are propelled backwards in unison as he falls to the ice. On most plays where the head is the main point of contact, we see the head moving independantly in the same direction as the player’s body. That ’head snap’ as we have previously described it, is an excellent indicator than the head has absorbed more force than the rest of the body.

The video goes on to explain how the league believes the head contact that was involved was “unavoidable” and not a result of poor timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the body.

  • NHL Central Scouting has released a list of 36 players that they believe are candidates for selection in the first round of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Corey Pronman of The Athletic tweets the full list, which includes the massive 6’6″ defender Owen Power who is in contention for first-overall and caused a bit of a stir when he wasn’t released from the Michigan Wolverines program to attend Team Canada’s World Junior selection camp. It also includes some familiar hockey names like Luke Hughes—younger brother of Quinn Hughes and Jack Hughes—and Cole Sillinger—son of former NHLer Mike Sillinger.
  • Though the Detroit Red Wings are still battling a rash of COVID Protocol Related Absences, they’ll actually get some reinforcements soon enough. Both Darren Helm and Christian Djoos have had their non-roster designation removed, meaning they’re available for the team should they decide to insert them into the lineup.

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