Expert Consensus: What To Expect In Round One Of The 2020 NHL Draft
While the actual date of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft is still unknown and at the very least still several months away, there is no new data for teams and draft analysts to gather on the draft class. So while the draft may seem like a long ways off, now is as good a time as any to begin dissecting the possibilities. Many draft experts agree, as several have already done their final dive into this class of prospects and released their final draft rankings. While there are a number of draft experts and services out there, here is a look at the upcoming first round based on the consensus of the most recent rankings from some of the most well-known draft analysts out there: Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required), Craig Button and Bob McKenzie of TSN, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News, Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst, Chris Peters of ESPN (subscription required), and Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet:
Alexis Lafreniere Will Go No. 1
No surprise, right? Alexis Lafreniere won the battle for the first overall spot a while ago and it is hard to find anyone who still disagrees. All eight experts ranked Lafreniere at No. 1 and few bothered to even argue the merits of the selection. Lafreniere has a chance to be a generational player given his offensive skill and skating ability. Regardless of who wins Friday’s lottery, they will be selecting the Rimouski superstar with the top pick.
Quinton Byfield Will Go No. 2
Of the eight experts, all but one ranked big center Quinton Byfield as the second overall pick. If that isn’t enough, just look at his numbers, including his height and weight, and you’ll get the idea why he is a can’t-miss prospect. Byfield is the type of top-line pivot that every team needs and, like Lafreniere at No. 1, no team will pass him up regardless of their organizational depth. The Sudbury centerman is the total package and his well-roundness alone will win him this spot.
Tim Stutzle Will Probably Go No. 3
Six of eight experts predict that German sensation Tim Stutzle will be taken third overall, with a seventh ranking him second. Stutzle has come on strong this season and shaken off any doubters with his elite speed and creativity. Thrown in his achievement against men in the DEL and against his peers at the World Juniors and you have a player that has shown that he can rise to the occasion once he arrives in the NHL. If the team picking third has a drastic need for defense or has fallen in love with one of the other consensus top-ten forwards, maybe Stutzle slips past third. However, he is right on the line of being too good to pass up like Lafreniere and Byfield.
Jamie Drysdale Will Be The First Defenseman Selected
Jamie Drysdale began the draft cycle as the top-rated defenseman and he will end it that way as well. All eight experts have the Drysdale as their top-ranked defender, anywhere from No. 4 to No. 9. The draft order will very likely determine where exactly Drysdale falls. However, given his ability and an otherwise weak defense class, especially on the right side, it is hard to imagine him falling outside the top five, as there will be teams looking to trade up if those pick-holders are not interested. The slick, pay-making blue liner out or Erie is a special player with the puck on his stick, but his defensive ability is also worthy of a top selection.
Another Goalie Will Go Early
Last year, the Florida Panthers bucked the trend of goaltenders rarely being taken early in the first round when they selected Spencer Knight at No. 13 overall. Watch for the same thing to happen this year and perhaps even earlier, depending on how the draft order plays out. Russian prodigy Yaroslav Askarov is being regarded even higher than Knight and might have a chance to crack the top ten. All eight experts ranked Askarov in the first half of the first round, but six had him at tenth or earlier. Askarov is truly considered an elite goalie prospect, the likes of which have not been seen in some time, and there will very likely be a team early on who simply can’t resist taking a guaranteed future starter.
A Down Year For The Americans
After a historic American draft class in 2019, the U.S. will very much take a back seat in the first round in 2020. Only one American, USNTDP defenseman Jake Sanderson, was a consensus first-round pick among the experts and none of the eight had more than three Americans slotted in the first round. Even among those few picks there was dissent among the experts, but forwards Brendan Brisson and Thomas Bordeleau look like the most likely names to sneak in.
Forward Depth Will Define The Draft Class
If there is one thing that has been a common refrain about the 2020 draft class, it is the wealth of talented forwards available. A strong sign that this is true is the varied opinions among the experts, with some ranking forwards early in the first round that others think might still be available in the third round. Only 15 forwards were consensus first-round picks among the eight experts. Beyond Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle, there are Swedish standouts Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz, CHL stars Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Jack Quinn, Connor Zary, Mavrik Bourque, Seth Jarvis, and Dawson Mercer, Finnish phenom Anton Lundell, Russian prize Rodion Amirov, and NCAA wunderkind Dylan Holloway. Yet, there were 22 other forward prospects who received at least one first-round ranking among the eight experts, not to mention another handful who were consensus second-round picks. There will be an uncommon amount of high-end ability available through at least the first two rounds for those NHL teams with needs up front.
Elite Defense Will Be Hard To Come By
Those teams desperate for help on the blue line will not have the same luck as those in need of forwards. Among the eight experts, only Drysdale and Sanderson were consensus first-round picks and both will be gone in the first half of the first round. Just four defenseman were given first-round grades by the majority of experts – Kaiden Guhle, Braden Schneider, Jeremie Poirier, and Justin Barron – and only Guhle received a top-half ranking by more than one expert. Given the depth of forwards and the inclusion of the goaltender Askarov as a definite first-round pick, it would not be a surprise to see as few as four defensemen selected in the first round this year.
Alexis Lafreniere Wins CHL Player Of The Year For Second Straight Season
When your name is in the running for the first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft, it doesn’t hurt to have a bullet point on your resume that only Sidney Crosby shares in hockey history. Forward Alexis Lafreniere of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic is projected to be the top pick in the 2020 draft almost unanimously. Any doubt that he may not take that title was likely put to rest on Wednesday when the CHL announced that Lafreniere had been named the 2019-20 CHL Player of the Year. As if that wasn’t enough of an accomplishment, this is actually the second straight campaign in which Lafreniere has received the award. He was named the CHL’s best player in 2018-19 as well. The only other player honored in consecutive seasons: Pittsburgh Penguins captain and one of the game’s all-time best, Sidney Crosby.
Lafreniere, 18, recorded an eye-popping 112 points in just 52 games this season with Rimouski. His 2.15 per-game scoring rate was the CHL’s best since another NHL mega star, Connor McDavid, was playing juniors. It also marks a sharp increase from Lafreniere’s 2018-19 production of 105 points in 61 games, which was still good enough to take home the CHL’s Player of the Year honors last season. Altogether, Lafreniere registered 72 goals and 217 points in 113 games across his two MVP campaigns and nearly 300 points total in his three junior seasons combined. As a result, there is approximately a 0% chance that he will ever play in the juniors again.
Instead, the presumptive top pick will simply sit and wait to see where his first pro destination will be. The NHL answer could arrive as early as later this month, as the NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for Friday, June 26th. However, if the nearby Ottawa Senators or the historically bad Detroit Red Wings or one of the other non-playoff teams does not win the first to select first overall, Lafreniere will have to wait even longer. A second lottery later this summer would determine which playoff team eliminated in the knockout round of the NHL’s adapted playoff format would have the first pick. On top of that, there is still some concern that with a possible delayed start to the 2020-21 NHL season that Lafreniere’s pro career may actually begin in Europe. The young star has entertained the thought of getting his first pro season started on time, even if that isn’t with his NHL club. He would of course be expected to return to North America once the new season does begin.
Regardless of where Lafreniere ends up, any team that has him in their lineup will receive a major boost. Lafreniere has shown for several years now that he is a special prospect and his second straight CHL Player of the Year Award puts him in elite company. Is it too early to proclaim him the next Crosby? Of course. That won’t stop the winners of this year’s draft lottery from keeping their hopes up though.
Alexis Lafreniere Considers Possibility Of Playing In Europe
The NHL draft lottery is scheduled for Friday, June 26, which likely will determine where top draft prospect Alexis Lafreniere will end up in the future. However, will that future begin in the 2020-21 season? With the NHL focused on the 24-team playoff format at the moment, little is known about when next season might get underway, although a long delay is expected before Lafreniere can start his NHL career.
With the playoffs likely to start in late July or August, it’s entirely possible that the 2020-21 season may not start until November or even later. With that being the case, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported recently on Insider Trading, that Lafreniere is likely to look into every possible option to get his season started on time. One possibility would be to sign a deal to play in Europe for a season (assuming that hockey starts in Europe on time).
“When is the National Hockey League going to begin the 2020-21 season? October? November? December? Even January? We don’t know,” said McKenzie. “On top of all that, where’s Alexis Lafreniere going to play this fall if the NHL season isn’t happening until January and the draft isn’t until October or November? Is the CHL going to be playing? Is the American Hockey League an option? We don’t know at this point. But one thing I can tell you – Emilie Castonguay for Alexis Lafreniere is looking at all the options on the table and that will include seeing if the European club teams are up and operating in September and October.”
Lafreniere, barring an unforeseen circumstance, is expected to be the first-overall pick in the 2020 NHL draft, but the draft is expected to be delayed until after the conclusion of the NHL playoffs, which could be in September or October. NHL.com’s Mike Morreale revealed that Lafreniere won the CHL’s Top Draft Prospect Award on Friday, his fourth award since his season with Rimouski Oceanic ended due to COVID-19. He also won the Jean Beliveau Trophy as the leading scorer in the QMJHL with 112 points, the Paul Dumont Trophy for the QHJHL’s top personality and the Michel Briere Trophy as the QMJHL’s top player.
The only notable comparison for such a move might be Auston Matthews, who played in the NLA. However, that was the year before he was drafted. Regardless, it still seems like a longshot that Lafreniere would pass up his first NHL season over a few months. The Detroit Red Wings have the best chances of winning the draft lottery at 18.5 percent.
OHL, WHL, QMJHL Announce Most Outstanding Players
The three leagues that make up the CHL have each announced the winner of their respective Most Outstanding/Valuable Player award, with Alexis Lafreniere grabbing the headlines once again. The expected first-overall pick has taken home the award for the second straight season in the QMJHL, joining only Sidney Crosby and Mathieu Chouinard as the only repeat winners.
Obviously Lafreniere is hoping for a hockey career that comes a little closer to the former than the latter, given that Chouinard played exactly one NHL game and was out of professional hockey after just six years. After scoring 297 points in 173 career games for the Rimouski Oceanic, Lafreniere is a near-lock as the first-overall pick whenever the 2020 NHL draft takes place.
In the WHL, it is Adam Beckman that takes home the Four Broncos Memorial Trophy after scoring a whopping 107 points in 63 games for the Spokane Chiefs. Beckman was picked in the third round by the Minnesota Wild and still has another year of junior hockey before he’s eligible for the AHL. It’s hard to top a year where you lead the league in goals, points and win the top award, but he’ll certainly be trying.
Given that Lafreniere is locked into a top spot for the draft, the most interesting award today may be the one given to Marco Rossi of the Ottawa 67’s. The Austrian-born forward spent his minor hockey years in Switzerland but absolutely dominated the OHL this season, scoring 120 points in 56 games. Rossi is eligible for the 2020 draft and was ranked sixth among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting.
NHL Releases Memo About Potential June Draft
The NHL released a memo Friday evening to all 31 teams stating its position on holding the NHL Entry Draft in June, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. While nothing is set in stone, NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly wrote that broadcast networks are on board with the plan that is rumored to set a June 5 draft date, giving the league a month to prepare.
One major issue would be the draft lottery. Considering the remainder of the regular season hasn’t been played out or cancelled, the NHL is suggesting using points percentage as the means to determine the order of the draft. The memo also outlined that the lottery format would be adjusted for this season only. There would be only one winner of the lottery with teams only being allowed to move up a maximum of four spots.
Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston notes that would mean that the Detroit Red Wings, who have the best chance to win the lottery, would receive nothing lower than the second-overall pick, while the Ottawa Senators would pick no lower than the third and fourth overall picks (they currently have San Jose’s lottery pick as well via the Erik Karlsson trade in 2018).
That could cause some ire from general managers who are all hoping to get their hands on QMJHL winger Alexis Lafreniere with the No. 1 overall pick. Despite having a greater advantage, Friedman notes that Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman stated on a Fox News Detroit Facebook Live chat on Thursday that he’s opposed to the idea.
My thought is: Why would you do that? Why would you need to do that?” Yzerman said. “There’s a lot of things that are affected, obviously. The draft position hasn’t been established; we don’t know who’s in the playoffs, who’s out of the playoffs, in some cases … But at this time, my own opinion is, I haven’t heard a good reason why we should do it prior to the end of the season, if we do conclude the season over the course of the summer.”
The league is also suggesting that teams would get seven days to deal with conditional trades that might involve draft picks in order that both teams reach a fair agreement. Many have sited the James Neal – Milan Lucic trade, which had Calgary receiving a conditional pick based on Neal scoring 21 goals and at least 10 more than Lucic. Teams would have a chance to renegotiate those deals so both teams are happy with the outcome.
However, the league is making it clear in the memo that they want to move on with the draft despite the uncertainty of the rest of the 2019-20 season. If the league is persuaded against using this format by teams, then the league would have to push it back much later with the best-case scenario being that the Stanley Cup awarded at some point in September with the 2020-21 season beginning in December and the draft being hastily dropped in between.
The fact of the matter is that whenever we hold the 2020 Draft — in early June or ‘shoehorned’ into a short window in October or November — (it) is not going to be a typical NHL Draft,” said Daly. “It is not going to look the same; it is not going to feel the same; and it is not going to be the same. While we may know more about next year’s landscape in terms of CBA, Salary Cap, Escrow, etc., in November than we will in June, we are still not going to know everything, and there is still going to be a multitude of questions that have no answers. So, any comparison of the 2020 NHL Draft to a typical year’s Draft is not — and cannot be — an ‘apples to apples’ comparison.”
Of course teams have to consent to this proposal, but the NHL is making it clear that this is the direction they would like to go, especially with the league’s financial security at stake. The NFL had a successful draft recently that gave a lot of attention to the league (including a 37 percent increase in viewership on the first night). With the NHL on suspension for more than a month, the league could use some of that attention headed its way until the league feels it can resume the NHL season later in the summer, at the earliest.
NHL Central Scouting Releases Final 2020 Draft Rankings
Even though we still don’t know exactly when the 2020 NHL Entry Draft will be taking place, hockey fans around the world can still pour over prospect stats and lists hoping their favorite organization gets the chance to add their favorite young player at some point down the line. Today, NHL Central Scouting released its final rankings for North American and International skaters and goaltenders. The top names are as follows:
- Alexis Lafreniere – Rimouski, QMJHL
- Quinton Byfield – Sudbury, OHL
- Jamie Drysdale – Erie, OHL
- Jake Sanderson – USNTDP
- Cole Perfetti – Saginaw, OHL
- Marco Rossi – Ottawa, OHL
- Jack Quinn – Ottawa, OHL
- Kaiden Guhle – Prince Albert, WHL
- Braden Schneider – Brandon, WHL
- Dawson Mercer – Chicoutimi, QMJHL
- Tim Stuetzle – Mannheim, DEL
- Alexander Holtz – Djurgarden, SHL
- Anton Lundell – HIFK, Liiga
- Lucas Raymond – Frolunda, SHL
- Rodion Amirov – Ufa, KHL
- Helge Grans – Malmo, Sweden-Jr.
- John-Jason Peterka – Munich, DEL
- Topi Niemela – Karpat, Liiga
- Noel Gunler – Lulea, SHL
- Roni Hirvonen – Assat, Liiga
- Nicolas Daws – Guelph, OHL
- Drew Commesso – USNTDP
- Samuel Hlavaj – Sherbrooke, QMJHL
- Yaroslav Askarov – St. Petersburg, VHL
- Jan Bednar – Sokolov, Czech-2
- Joel Blomqvist – Karpat, Finland-Jr.
Prospect Notes: Lafreniere, Gildon, Whelan, Richter Award
The announcement this afternoon that the NHL would be postponing the 2020 NHL Draft means that top prospect Alexis Lafreniere will have to wait a while longer to presumably be selected first overall. Yet, with his QMJHL season already canceled, the young forward has little else to focus on. The same can be said for a number of NHL teams who already know that they won’t be making the postseason regardless of the format the league chooses if and when they return to action. No team has more to gain from the coming draft than the Ottawa Senators. If the NHL Draft Lottery were to be held without any further changes to the regular season standings, the Detroit Red Wings would have the best singular odds of winning, 18.5%, but the Senators in both second and third, given their ownership of the San Jose Sharks’ pick, would actually have much better odds at a combined 25%. Naturally, the question was asked by TSN today of the Quebec native Lafreniere how he would feel about playing in Canada’s capital. “It would be fun. It would be special,” Lafreniere said, “It’s a great place to play and it would be an honor [to be selected.]” While the Senators have not exactly been a top free agent destination in recent years, the club is building up quite a talented group of prospects and Lafreniere would be a great fit to lead the team into the future, especially alongside whoever else the team selects early in the first round.
- One existing NHL prospect who may soon be joining his pro home is Florida Panthers pick Max Gildon. Gildon, who just wrapped up his junior season at the University of New Hampshire, is close to signing an entry-level deal reports New England hockey insider Mark Divver. Divver expects the two sides to come to terms on a deal within a week. Gildon was a 2017 third-round pick out of the U.S. National Team Development Program, but has outplayed his draft slot over three productive years on the UNH blue line. He also pairs a big frame, physical play, and ability to play in all situations with his considerable skill and vision. Joining a Florida team with a pretty thin pipeline of defensive talent, Gildon could be in the NHL sooner rather than later.
- Quinnipiac University forward Alex Whelan has found his first pro destination, as the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack announced a contract with the nearby product or the 2020-21 season. Whelan, who just finished his fourth and final year with Quinnipiac, was nothing if not consistent in his NCAA career. However, his 24 points this season came in just 29 games as opposed to 25 in 38 last year. On a per-game basis, he was the Bobcats’ second-best scorer on a team that was within reach of an NCAA Tournament berth. A power forward who looks prepared for the pro game, Whelan is a nice pickup for Hartford and will likely bring some Quinnipiac fans along with him.
- The NCAA announced the ten semifinalists for the Mike Richter Award for top goaltender on Tuesday, with several NHL prospects on the list. Maine’s Jeremy Swayman, who recently signed his entry-level deal with the Boston Bruins, heads up a list that also includes 2019 top goalie draft pick Spencer Knight of Boston College and the Florida Panthers, as well as UMass Lowell’s Tyler Wall, whose rights are owned by the New York Rangers but could be headed for unrestricted free agency. However, the favorite for the award is likely an undrafted product, Minnesota State’s Dryden McKay, who led the nation in wins, save percentage, and GAA. McKay and Swayman are the only Richter semifinalists who are also Hobey Baker finalists. Other standouts include Cornell’s Matthew Galajda, Michigan’s Strauss Mann, and Bemidji State’s Zach Driscoll. The three finalists will be announced at a later date.
Snapshots: Shanahan, Doughty, Draft Lottery
While the Toronto Maple Leafs have distanced themselves from the Florida Panthers of late and look to have a firm hold on the third playoff berth in the Atlantic Division, the same spot they held last year, most have seen this season as a disappointment for the club. The Leafs have endured an up-and-down campaign and even at their best have never truly competed for the division lead with rivals the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. In fact, the Leafs still sit 18 points back of Boston and nine points back of Tampa, who hold a game in hand. Yet, president Brendan Shanahan is choosing to see the positives in Toronto’s season and Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston relays that the Hall of Famer is happy with the direction of his team. “Adversity is something that every NHL team will go through, for all teams and not just ours,” Shanahan said, “and it’s something that you can either meet and grow from or you can use it as an excuse and I like to think that our players aren’t using it as an excuse, certainly not in management or coaching.” Shanahan continued that the team is “never going to [be consistent] all 82 games in a row, but certainly doing it more often than not, and that’s something that our guys are learning and it’s something I’m very confident that they are going to continue to grow at.” Shanahan speaks further about the team, noting how hard it is to sustain success in the NHL, but stating that he is confident that the Leafs can learn to be more consistent to make the most of their considerable talent.
- Another name choosing to be positive in a tough situation is Drew Doughty, whose L.A. Kings face the Maple Leafs on Thursday. The Kings went from perennial Stanley Cup contender to a long-term rebuild quicker than anyone could have expected and Doughty, signed long-term in L.A., would obviously rather be back competing for titles every year. That doesn’t seem likely any time soon though and the veteran is just trying to take things day-by-day. “It’s very hard, but it’s the position I’m in, and I gotta try to stay positive every day, as hard as it is,” Doughty told TSN, “I have to make the best of it and just try to get better every day, both as a team and individually.” Doughty says that he is happy to see the talent of the prospects in the Kings’ pipeline, as well as the team’s numerous picks, and has already seen “flashes” from many of the current young players on the roster. However, no one is expecting a quick turnaround in L.A., Doughty included, so he will have to find a way to stay focused and positive for a while longer.
- One major positive for Kings would be good luck at this year’s NHL Draft Lottery. L.A. dropped from No. 2 to No. 5 last season with the maximum three teams winning the lottery, and they hope for a different result as they currently sit with the second-worst record again this year. The Kings are undoubtedly hoping to move up to the top spot for the chance to take generational winger Alexis Lafreniere. So, when will we know the draft order for June? The Athletic’s Corey Pronman reports that the expectation is that the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery to be held on Thursday, April 9th. This would be the second night of the NHL postseason, which could see the lottery drawing again held in phases throughout a night of playoff action. More will be known soon on the details of this year’s lottery.
Prospect Notes: Draft Rankings, Foote, Brodeur
The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler has released his midseason draft prospect ranking (subscription required), where he takes a detailed look at the top 31 prospects while also ranking the second round. It won’t surprise you that Alexis Lafreniere is at the top, though the rest of his first round comes with some surprises.
One of those may be Jake Sanderson, who is the lone American-born player in the top-31. Sanderson sits at No. 25, making it quite a weak draft for the United States (especially compared to last year’s loaded class). The piece has enough information for you to spend an afternoon picking apart, especially as draft picks are swapped over the next several days.
- The Kelowna Rockets of the WHL have made a change behind the bench, releasing former NHL defenseman Adam Foote from his duties as head coach. This is almost unheard of for a team to do just before they host the Memorial Cup, but with Kelowna sitting with a losing record obviously they felt a change should be made. Foote’s son, Nolan Foote, just had a big change in his career path as well after being traded from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the New Jersey Devils. He’ll have to chase that Memorial Cup without his dad looking over his shoulder.
- Another famous hockey name is in the news today, as Jeremy Brodeur has signed with the Sheffield Steelers of the EIHL. Son of legendary NHL goaltender Martin Brodeur, the 23-year old netminder went undrafted and played last season in the ECHL.
Snapshots: Draft Ranking, Nygard, Gallagher
Alexis Lafreniere has topped another list, this time leading TSN’s mid-season ranking. Bob McKenzie compiles the list based on the determinations of ten NHL scouts, but writes that Lafreniere is in a “class all by himself.”
The rest of the list includes 61 other ranked players (plus five honorable mentions), with the usual suspects like Quinton Byfield, Tim Stuetzle and Jamie Drysdale near the top. Jake Sanderson is one of the interesting risers, finding himself the top-ranked American and in the top-10.
- There is at least one casualty of the battle between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. Joakim Nygard is still being evaluated by the Oilers’ medical staff after leaving last night’s game, but head coach Dave Tippett explained that it looks like it “could be a serious injury.” Nygard blocked a shot in the first period and could miss another huge chunk of games in his rookie season.
- In an absolute must-win for the Montreal Canadiens, they’ll have the heartbeat of their forward group back. Brendan Gallagher is expected to return for the team after missing six games with headaches, as they take on the Buffalo Sabres for the rights to fifth-place in the Atlantic. The Sabres and Canadiens both have 51 points and are seeing their playoff hopes slip away as we enter the last third of the season.