The New York Rangers selected Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere with back-to-back top-two picks in the 2019 and 2020 NHL Drafts, offering the team some key pieces to a short rebuild and a quick turnaround after the Ryan McDonagh and Henrik Lundqvist era of contending teams drew to a close. Things haven’t gone quite as planned for Kakko and Lafreniere individually since then, however.
Lafreniere now sits as the only remaining Ranger RFA left unsigned this offseason, and he needs a new deal in the next few weeks if he’s to be with the team on the first day of training camp. The team has the cap space to get it done with $2.278MM given a 22-player roster, per CapFriendly, but it’ll be a tight fit. Surely one thing Lafreniere is trying to flesh out is the role he’ll have on the team given a new coach behind the bench – Peter Laviolette. Some would say the outgoing head coach, Gerard Gallant, didn’t utilize Lafreniere as much as he should. Others would say Lafreniere hasn’t done enough to earn a bump in ice time.
He hasn’t hit the potential he showed in his 112-point draft-year season with the QMJHL’s Rimouski Océanic, but he’s been a capable depth scorer who’s put up double-digit goal totals in each of his three NHL seasons so far. In 2020-21, his rookie campaign, he notched 12 goals, nine assists and 21 points while playing in all 56 games in a third-line role during the COVID-shortened season. He didn’t receive any ice time increase in his sophomore campaign, though, likely the biggest offense that those not fond of Gallant’s handling of the young prospect will point to. His production didn’t see a jump as a result, and he posted just 31 points in 79 games. He saw a small uptick last season, finishing with 16 goals, 23 points and 39 points in 81 games.
It’s easy to worry about time running out for Lafreniere thanks to three years of relative stagnation. However, he jumped into the league straight from juniors at 18 years old, meaning he’s still just 21 – there’s still another three or four seasons before he truly enters his prime. While it’s rare to see a non-linear path toward stardom, especially for highly-touted prospects, it’s not unheard of. While New Jersey Devils captain Nico Hischier put up solid two-way results since Day 1, it took a solid three or four years for his offensive production to jump to the near point-per-game we expect from him today.
While it isn’t time to give up hope on Lafreniere entirely, we still are approaching make-or-break territory over the next two seasons. Potentially in an unfortunate turn of events for Lafreniere’s development, the Rangers are now fully in contending mode. Will they be willing to spend the resources and make the adjustments necessary for Lafreniere’s individual growth? Given the age of some of their core players, it seems prudent to make all efforts to help Lafreniere approach bonafide top-six territory in hopes of him helping extend their contention window.
That starts now under the Laviolette regime. Is the veteran coach prepared to give Lafreniere a top-six role by moving him to his off-wing? Blake Wheeler was brought in this offseason and has a long history of playing a top-six role for the Winnipeg Jets, but at his age, he’s shown he’s primarily a playmaking specialist over the past few seasons and is entering defensive liability territory if he wasn’t there already. You could argue there isn’t room for a player with as many holes in his game as Wheeler in the top six of a team looking to lift the Stanley Cup.
Lafreniere may not have the point totals, but today, he’s a better finisher than Wheeler, with less to worry about defensively. It could warrant a bump in ice time alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck or Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, assuming Laviolette keeps those combinations together from last season.
Kakko looks to have a more solid grip on a top-six role after spending a decent chunk of last season on the right wing with Kreider and Zibanejad. That line dominated possession for the Rangers, posting the highest expected goals share of any three-man line with more than 100 minutes together for New York last season, according to MoneyPuck. It would be prudent for Laviolette not to mess with a good thing.
Another thing to consider – could the Rangers shuffle Trocheck in their middle-six and pair Lafreniere and Panarin with Filip Chytil down the middle? The latter broke out for 22 goals in 74 games last season and is entering the first year of a four-year, $17.75MM extension he signed in March. If the team is looking for their young talent to gain experience in tougher roles when the guard eventually changes to them, it could be a move worth thinking about.
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