A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings
While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.
It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.
While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.
- Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
- Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
- Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
- Matt Cullen – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.
Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.
Salary Cap Report: Metropolitan Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season begins, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. There are some teams not finished, as trades or financial meandering will be necessary due to cap crunches. Others have plenty of room.
We’ll look at the Metropolitan Division next. Some interesting notes:
- The Hurricanes have the most cap space of any team in the NHL.
- The Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist has the highest cap hit of any goalie in the NHL. The second highest is Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky.
- Four of the NHL’s top ten cap hits are found in the division: (Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Henrik Lundqvist. Claude Giroux is 11th).
By the numbers:
- Carolina Hurricanes
Cap Space Remaining: $16,736,667
Greatest Cap Hit: Jordan Staal: $6MM - Columbus Blue Jackets
Cap Space Remaining:$3,817,857
Greatest Cap Hit: Sergei Bobrovsky: $7.43MM - New Jersey Devils
Cap Space Remaining: $13,034,404
Greatest Cap Hit: Taylor Hall/Cory Schneider: $6MM - New York Islanders
Cap Space Remaining: $3,658,524
Greatest Cap Hit: Johnny Boychuk: $6MM - New York Rangers
Cap Space Remaining:$3,425,000
Greatest Cap Hit: Henrik Lundqvist: $8.5MM - Philadelphia Flyers
Cap Space Remaining: $413,334
Greatest Cap Hit: Claude Giroux: $8.275MM - Pittsburgh Penguins
Cap Space Remaining: -$2,757,499
Greatest Cap Hit: Evgeni Malkin: $9.5MM - Washington Capitals
Cap Space Remaining: $3,454,871
Greatest Cap Hit: Alex Ovechkin: $9.54MM
Snapshots: World Cup, Tufte, Grabovski, Penguins
The NHL and ESPN today released the U.S. broadcast schedule for the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. The tournament runs from September 8th to as late as October 1st, should the best-of-three final go the distance. The games will be broadcast in the United States on all four ESPN channels. The Canadian broadcast schedule was previously released in May, and the games will air in Canada on Rogers Sportsnet and CBC.
Here are some more snapshots from around the league:
- Matt Wellens of the Duluth News Tribune writes today on Dallas Stars’ first round pick Riley Tufte, who will miss the remainder of the US national junior development camp with a broken wrist. Tufte, 18, is not expected to miss time during the regular season, which he’ll play at the University of Minnesota Duluth . Tufte had 10 goals, 14 points in 27 games for the USHL’s Fargo Force last year.
- David Holcomb of Today’s Slapshot discusses Mikhail Grabovski and the New York Islanders today. Holcomb writes that after the big financial commitment the Islanders made to Grabovski, the amount of time he’s missed through injuries is difficult to deal with. He’s played well when healthy, but he plays with a fearlessness that gets him into trouble, especially with his lack of size.
- The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey reports on the Penguins’ AHL affiliates, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, have added to their coaching staff. Chris Taylor and J.D. Forrest will be join head coach Clark Donatelli. Forrest, 35, played last year in the ECHL. Taylor, 44, played 149 games in the NHL for the Bruins, Islanders, and Sabres, and spent last year as an assistant coach for the Rochester Americans.
Current Trade Candidates (Part One)
Now almost a month into free agency, the NHL off-season is nearing a point where the flow of transactions, once a raging river of signings during the first few days of July, will slow down to only a trickle. A few notable unrestricted free agents remain unsigned, a handful of young restricted free agents are set to still be extended, and arbitration cases continue to be settled prior to their hearings, though perhaps one of two will come to fruition. However, the days of big signings are over; all remaining deals handed out will either be expected, in the case of RFA’s, or underwhelming, for the UFA’s lucky enough to even find a new home. So what off-season excitement is left for hockey fans to follow? The trade market. August often brings a change of mindset for many NHL front office executives, from adding free agents before someone else scoops them up, to instead subtracting from the current roster as the season nears and cap space, depth, and even character concerns become more clear and focused as opening night approaches. The following players have had their names floated around the trade market all summer, and the next few weeks could bring a change of scenery to one or more:
The case of Evander Kane is different than many others on this list. If he is moved by the Sabres, it is not out of necessity due to cap constraints or a glut of depth at left wing, it is because they simply want him gone. The young power forward was recently charged with criminal trespass and harassment stemming from his role in an altercation at a local Buffalo nightclub. This is now his second run-in with the law during his short tenure in Buffalo, as he was just recently cleared of charges involving accusations of sexual misconduct by a young woman back in December. With his 0ff-ice behavior becoming a consistent and growing concern for the Sabres organization, trade speculation has run rampant. Buffalo would certainly like to have Kane’s on-ice production over the next two seasons, but they also have to weigh the risk of his troublesome actions becoming a distraction or interfering with his play during that time as well. If they wait to pull the trigger on a trade, and more incidents occur, this newest allegation grows more serious, or his production is impacted by his extracurricular issues, than the return for Buffalo will also be negatively effected. Also, if the Sabres decide to stick with him throughout his legal issues, potential suspensions and all, they still run the risk that their investment will not pay out, as Kane can still leave as a free agent in 2018. While nearly half of the league could probably find the space to add a great talent like Kane to their top six forward group, they all have to weigh these same risks. Expect the trade talk to continue, especially if teams feel that Kane simply needs a change of scenery, and don’t be surprised to see Kane wearing a different jersey in the next year. Any jersey would be better than an orange jumpsuit, as the hockey world can all join in hoping that a great young talent like Kane can sort out his off-ice issues and get back to focusing on his NHL career.
Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings
Howard is the first of several goalies on this list, and realistically only one of them is likely to be moved before the season begins, if any at all. Detroit is in trouble with the salary cap, having just awarded Danny DeKeyser with a new contract that carries a $5MM cap hit and still working out a new contract with Howard’s heir, Petr Mrazek, who is also looking for $5MM a season. Even if the two sides are able to agree to a deal that keeps Mrazek at about $3MM or so for next season, the signing will effectively put Detroit over the salary cap limit of $73MM. Johan Franzen will be put on Long-Term Injured Reserve as soon as possible, erasing his nearly $4MM cap hit, but the Red Wings must be cap compliant before then. If GM Ken Holland can find away to squeeze his roster in under the cap using his two-way contracts and other roster management magic, then maybe Howard or other could be spared. However, if that is not possible, expect Howard to be the main focus of a trade. The 32-year-old Howard and his 2.80 GAA and .906 save percentage were soundly supplanted by the 34-year-old Mrazek, who posted a 2.33 GAA and .921 save percentage in 13 more games during the regular season. Howard now is just an expensive backup at over $5MM. While there is value in keeping the former starter on board, both for depth and for expansion draft purposes, when push comes to shove for cap compliance, an expensive backup is an easy trade chip. However, there may only be one real suitor for Howard, as well as any starting-caliber goalie on the market, and that is the Dallas Stars, whose tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi didn’t quite get the job done last year, despite having a combined cap hit of $10.4MM. The problem this presents to a cap-strapped team like Detroit, is that they would have to take one of the two back in return, and even if Dallas held on to a portion of either contract, it might not provide the Red Wings with the space they need. Howard’s name will continue to come up, but he seems more likely to be traded during season when new suitors start to arrive, or perhaps not dealt at all.
Gustav Nyquist, Detroit Red Wings
If the Red Wings cannot move Howard and are getting desperate as the deadline approaches for cap compliance and there’s no tricks up Ken Holland’s sleeve, it seems like Nyquist could be the next man up on the chopping block. The college hockey star from the University of Maine was once considered untouchable in Detroit, after he lit the hockey world on fire in 2013-14 when he scored 48 points in 57 games in his first full NHL campaign. However, relative to his recent production of nearly a point per game in 2013-14 at the age of 24, and even his 54 points in a full 82 games in 2014-15, Nyquist layed an egg this past season with just 43 points and only about half of the goals of each of his prior two seasons. The worst part was that he did so in the first year of a new four-year, $19MM contract. Now Nyquist, who will turn 27 in September, is far from untouchable and is likely the leading trade candidate among a deep forward group in Detroit due to his financial burden relative to his production. The Red Wings would surely prefer not to trade him if they don’t have to, but they can rest assured that if he is truly put on the market, teams will line up for his services and the return will be more than satisfactory.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
Another goalie who could be on the move is Marc-Andre Fleury. After being surprisingly overtaken by the young playoff hero, Matt Murray, everyone and their grandmother seems to know that Fleury’s time is up in Pittsburgh. With an expansion draft looming, there is no way that the Penguins allow Murray to be left unprotected, which means that Fleury (whose No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, and teams can only protect one goalie) must go. GM Jim Rutherford has already said that he is happy with the two goalie situation and plans on having both when the season starts. However, the true intentions of the veteran executive are transparent, and the words are simply a farce that are likely meant to simply keep the morale of the former-All-Star starter up. Whether Rutherford truly plans to keep Fleury for the start of the season or not does not hide the fact that he does not plan to keep Fleury until the end of the season. Some way, somehow, it seems as close to a sure thing as a trade can be that Marc-Andre Fleury will be traded. Again, Dallas appears to be the lone suitor for a starter right now and the Penguins are no better off with the salary cap than the Red Wings, which causes confusion in making any potential deal regarding Niemi or Lehtonen. However, even if the Penguins are able to re-sign Matt Cullen, their roster has the flexibility to allow them to be cap compliant before putting Pascal Dupuis‘ $3.75MM cap hit on LTIR. So, the Penguins both don’t have to trade Fleury before the season and also are able to trade Fleury before the season. One thing is certain, he will be traded soon enough.
Canadiens Sign Bobby Farnham
The Montreal Canadiens signed forward Bobby Farnham to a one-year, two-way contract. Financial details were not released. The deal is worth the league minimum $575K at the NHL level, reports General Fanager. He’ll earn $300K in the AHL while the total guarantee in the contract is $350K.
The 27-year-old forward spent time with both Pittsburgh and New Jersey last season. In 50 games with New Jersey, Farnham registered 10 points (8-2). He appeared in three games with the Penguins before being waived in October.
News And Notes: Kings, Flyers, Scrivens, Penguins
The Los Angeles Kings announced today that they’ve signed 24-year-old center undrafted Patrick Bjorstrand to a one year contract. Bjorkstrand, the son of the Danish league’s Herning Blue Fox’s head coach Todd Bjorstraand, and brother of Columbus Blue Jackets’ prospect Oliver Bjorkstrand, scored nine goals, and 13 assists for the KHL’s Medveščak Zagreb last year.
Further links from around the NHL:
- The Philadelphia Flyers announced via their website that forward Nick Cousins has accepted his qualifying offer. Cousins will earn $937k on a one year contract.
- Former Maple Leafs, Oilers, and Canadiens goalie Ben Scrivens has signed with the KHL’s Dinamo Minsk, according to The Hockey Writers’ Alvis Kalnins. Scrivens played 15 games with the Canadiens this year, posting a .906 save percentage, and split the rest of the season with the Bakersfield Condors and the St. John’s Ice Caps.
- The Pittsburgh Tribune’s Bill West speculates on Twitter that after re-signing Justin Schultz, the Penguins may be loading up on skating defensemen hoping that at least one becomes a significant contributor, and that if several pan out, they may be able to deal one later on.
Snapshots: Trades, Cullen, Hall, Callahan
USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes today on eight teams he expects to be active in the trade market going forward, the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, and St. Louis Blues. While there are still several useful players left on the unrestricted free agent market, Allen suggests several teams are looking to either move out salary, or upgrade their teams via trade.
Allen suggests the Blues and Ducks would both like to add forwards, and could dangle defensemen to get it done. The Ducks have long been rumored to be willing to move Cam Fowler in exchange for forward help, and the Blues may be willing to move Kevin Shattenkirk, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2017. All of the Oilers, Bruins, and Red Wings are said to be seeking defensemen, and the Oilers in particular have excess forwards who could be moved. Allen also suggessts defensemen Tyson Barrie of the Avalanche, Matt Dumba of the Wild, and Kevin Klein and Marc Staal of the Rangers may be shopped this summer. In the case of Klein and Staal, it would likely be in an effort to clear cap space, and it’s also possible the Rangers move forward Rick Nash, but his $7.8MM cap hit may make that difficult.
Elsewhere around the league:
- Recently acquired Devils forward Taylor Hall will switch from wearing the number four to the number nine, reports Scott Lewis at Sportsnet.ca. Hall had previously worn four for his entire NHL career, but it’s retired in New Jersey for former Devils’ captain Scott Stevens. There had been a previous controversy when Hall was given the number four in Edmonton, which had been retired for former defenseman and then Oilers’ President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe.
- Puck Daddy’s Josh Cooper reports today on deliberations over who will replace injured Lightning forward Ryan Callahan on the American team for the World Cup of Hockey. Cooper lists Tampa Bay’s Tyler Johnson, Buffalo’s Kyle Okposo, Pittsburgh’s Phil Kessel, and New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri as potential replacements.
- Penguins’ GM Jim Rutherford was quoted on Twitter by the Pittsburgh Tribune’s Bill West, saying they do have an offer out on center Matt Cullen, but suggests the money is less than his play last year would justify. Cullen, who turns 40 in November, had 16 goals and 16 assists in 82 games last year, helping the Penguins win the Stanley Cup.
Penguins Re-Sign Justin Schultz To 1-Year, $1.4MM Deal
The Pittsburgh Penguins announced via Twitter and their website the re-signing unrestricted free agent defenseman Justin Schultz to a 1-year contract worth $1.4MM. Schultz, who was acquired from the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline in exchange for a third round pick in 2016, became an unrestricted free agent when the Penguins declined to give him a qualifying offer, which would have been around $3.9MM.
Schultz played 18 regular season games for the Penguins, scoring one goal, and adding seven assists. In his first shot at playoff action, he played 15 games, picking up four assists, and was a scratch for nine of the team’s first twelve playoff games. Before joining the Penguins, Schultz played 248 games for Edmonton, scoring 28 goals, and adding 73 assists, averaging 22 minutes a game.
Originally drafted by the Anaheim Ducks, Schultz starred at the University of Wisconsin, playing alongside fellow Ducks prospect Jake Gardiner. In a situation similar to that of Jimmy Vesey, Schultz went unsigned by Anaheim, and become an unrestricted free agent in 2012. He met with several teams, who saw him as an elite prospect, and chose the Oilers after a meeting with former Oilers star Wayne Gretzky.
Pittsburgh Notes: Kessel, Cullen, Schultz, Emrick
Phil Kessel underwent surgery on his hand today, reported Sportsnet’s John Shannon. The surgery was needed due to an injury Kessel suffered during the Penguins’ first round match-up with the New York Rangers. Kessel played in all 24 playoff games for the Stanley Cup champions, putting up 22 points and a +5 rating. For a player who’s toughness and heart have been questioned throughout his career, it seems as though a serious hand injury was not enough stop him from being arguably the most important player in Pittsburgh’s Cup run.
More from Pittsburgh:
- GM Jim Rutherford would like to bring back free agents Matt Cullen and Justin Schultz, reports Josh Yohe of DK Pittsburgh Sports. Yohe’s story continues that not only does Rutherford wish they would come back, he actually believes it is possible. As our friends at Roster Resource illustrate, that does not seem to be the case. Not only do the Penguins appear to have a roster that is chock full of NHL contributors without much room for addition, but as currently constituted, Pittsburgh is also over the salary cap limit of $73MM. It would take some creative maneuvering by Rutherford to squeeze in just one of them, nevertheless both. If it was to be just one, the veteran forward Cullen is more likely to take an inexpensive, one-year deal to return to the Penguins, than the young puck-moving defenseman Schultz.
- The Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins announced that they have re-signed forward Sahir Gill. They also announced that they have re-signed veteran defenseman Barry Goers, in a somewhat more surprising move, considering the plethora of two-way contracts that the Pittsburgh Penguins have given out this off-season.
- Award-winning hockey broadcaster Mike “Doc” Emrick is switching sports, but just for one night. NBC’s leading NHL play-by-play announcer will jump over to MLB Network to call tonight’s Pittsburgh Pirates-Chicago Cubs game. Emerick, who got his first chance to cover the NHL with the Pittsburgh Penguins, is an avid Pirates fan.
Are NHL Super Teams Possible?
Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.
The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.
Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.
Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.
The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.
Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.
Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.
As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.
Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.