Philadelphia Flyers Sign Frost, Ratcliffe To ELCs
The Philadelphia Flyers have signed two more top picks from the recent draft, inking Morgan Frost and Isaac Ratcliffe to entry-level contracts. Each player is expected to return to the OHL for the upcoming season.
Frost was selected 27th-overall with the first of two first-round picks the Flyers received for Brayden Schenn. After a breakout season with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, the thin center is poised for another big season as some older players move on. His responsibility and ice time should increase, and he’ll get even more opportunity to show off his creativity in the offensive zone. Growing up around the Toronto Maple Leafs due to his father’s job as PA Announcer at the Air Canada Center, Frost shot up draft boards this year due mostly to his high “hockey IQ.” If he can add some strength and show that more attention doesn’t slow him down he has a shot to be an effective middle-six center in the NHL.
The Flyers moved up to get Ratcliffe at 35th-overall, dealing a pair of picks to the Arizona Coyotes for the right to draft the 6’6″ winger. Another player who broke out and soared up draft boards, Ratcliffe ended up with 28 goals this year for the Guelph Storm and has a knack for protecting the puck down low with his big frame. While it’ll take quite a bit of work to get his skating up to an NHL level, there is the capability there for a net front powerplay presence and effective five-on-five possession player.
Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue
The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.
Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews‘ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.
Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.
Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.
Top 2018 Draft Picks That Have Already Been Traded
About 11 months from now, 31 NHL general managers will come together in a room with thousands of people watching and select the next group of young players destined to make it to the professional ranks. The 2018 NHL Entry Draft will be a huge event, mostly because of the elite talent that will be available at the top.
Without a clear consensus on the top pick so far, the next year will be extremely interesting to watch for prospect hounds. Andrei Svechnikov, Rasmus Dahlin, Joe Veleno, Quinn Hughes and others all have incredible talent, and could push for the top spot with a big year (and perhaps a growth spurt or two). Like this year, we could also see a relative outsider like Nico Hischier fly up the ranks to take over the top spot by draft day. One thing is for sure though, that there is plenty of talent to find in the first round and beyond at next year’s draft.
It has already been clear that teams don’t want to give up their 2018 draft picks, as we saw with the collection of selections acquired by the Vegas Golden Knights. They have multiple second-round picks in 2019 and 2020, but couldn’t secure an extra top pick in 2018. That said, there have already been many transactions that have moved picks around. Here are the teams that have acquired extra picks in the first three rounds of the 2018 draft (key player traded in parentheses).
Arizona Coyotes:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Minnesota Wild (Hanzal)
Detroit Red Wings:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick (OTT) from New York Rangers (Smith)
Florida Panthers:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Arizona Coyotes (Crouse)
Minnesota Wild:
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from Buffalo Sabres (Scandella)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from Vegas Golden Knights (Tuch)
Montreal Canadiens:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Chicago Blackhawks (Weise)
New York Islanders:
Acquired 2018 1st-round pick from Calgary Flames (Hamonic)
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Calgary Flames (Hamonic)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Acquired conditional 2018 1st-round from St. Louis Blues (Schenn)
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Acquired conditional 2018 2nd-round pick (WSH) from Montreal Canadiens (Drouin)
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from San Jose Sharks (Polak)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from San Jose Sharks (Reimer)
Washington Capitals:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick (FLA) from New Jersey Devils (Johansson)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick (TOR) from New Jersey Devils (Johansson)
Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team
It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.
All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.
Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained
Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts
Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts
Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts
Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained
Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts
Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts
New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout
Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout
Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture
Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts
Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained
Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout
New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture
Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout
Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts
Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout
Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout
Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout
Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout
Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout
Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained
Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried
Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout
Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space
After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.
(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)
Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya
Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.
That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.
Potential Suitors
The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?
Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?
Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.
Projected Contract
Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.
East Notes: Patrick, Tatar
The Philadelphia Flyers tweeted that Nolan Patrick is just fine, indicating that it was either an abscess or a boil afflicting his face. Yesterday, the problem forced Patrick off the ice. The second overall pick of the 2017 draft, Patrick’s injuries were well documented and allowed Nico Hischier to sneak up in terms of draft stock. This seems to be nothing more than a blip on the radar, and Patrick would presumably be available sooner rather than later.
- Several members of the Detroit media weighed in on the re-signing of Tomas Tatar and it sounds like the 26-year-old winger is just relieved to be finished with the renegotiation of his contract. Mlive’s Scott DeCamp writes that the process was “stressful” and is excited that everything worked out. From DeCamp:
“I really, really wanted to stay,” he said. “I think Detroit is where I belong. I have so many friends, the fans are awesome. I have a great relationship with guys in the locker room, so it would be really, really hard to have a one-year deal and kind of not knowing what was going to come in the future. I’m extremely happy that I could stay and we found a way to sign the deal.”
Tatar told DeCamp, and Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News that with last season being a “disappointment” for the team after missing the playoffs, he expects to be better along with the rest of his teammates. Kulfan adds that general manager Ken Holland will now look to lock up forward Andreas Athanasiou, who along with defenseman Robbie Russo, is still without a contract.
Nolan Patrick Dealing With Infection
Fans of the Philadelphia Flyers were excited to finally see top pick Nolan Patrick lace up his skates and take to the ice today, but they will have to wait at least a little longer. According to GM Ron Hextall, Patrick is dealing with “an infection in his face” and will not skate today.
Patrick signed his entry-level contract just a few days ago, and is expected to compete for an NHL roster spot right away at this fall’s training camp. The second-overall pick has one of the more polished games of anyone selected this year and could likely step into a sheltered role with success. He’ll have to put his injury history behind him though, as he missed much of this season because of sports hernia surgery, only to go under the knife again just before the draft.
Those injuries already cost Patrick the top draft slot, as the New Jersey Devils went with Nico Hischier at #1 instead. The Flyers’ happy to even be picking that high after winning a lottery selection, jumped all over the long-touted WHL centerman who has NHL bloodlines and the size to compete. His future lies in the top six of the Philadelphia lineup, but how long it takes him to get there is still uncertain.
Nolan Patrick Signs Entry-Level Contract
The second-overall pick in this year’s draft is now the newest member of the Philadelphia Flyers organization, after Nolan Patrick signed his three-year entry-level contract with the club. The deal will pay him $925K per season in salary and signing bonuses, while he could earn up to $2.85MM including performance bonuses.
Patrick was long considered a lock for the first-overall draft position, but after dealing with several injuries including a sports hernia fell slightly behind Nico Hischier on the final day. Still recovering from a second corrective surgery to fix the hernia, Patrick missed the Flyers’ development camp but should be ready for the start of the season. While there is no guarantee he’ll start the year in the NHL, he remains one of the most polished players from the draft and could make an impact right away.
The 18-year old has actually played parts of four seasons for the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL already, and showed what he can do with a full healthy season in 2015-16. In 93 total games that year, he scored 132 points and was one of the most dominant singular forces in the entire CHL. When he was on the ice, Brandon rarely trailed in possession as his two-way game is already quite developed. Though he was limited to just 33 games in 2016-17 and had to watch the Wheat Kings be swept out of the first round of the playoffs, he still recorded 46 points and was impressive even banged up.
The Flyers, who missed the playoffs this season with just 88 points are still counting their lucky stars after a huge win in the draft lottery brought them up to second overall. With young players like Travis Konecny and Ivan Provorov—who happens to be one of Patrick’s best friends from their days in Brandon—already making an impact at the NHL level, there is a growing young core ready to take over from Claude Giroux and company as the driving force behind the team. Though it’s hard to see them competing for the Stanley Cup next season, if their young goaltending prospects develop as hoped, they could be a big player in the Metropolitan division for some time.
Flyers Re-Sign Lyon, Stolarz, And Bardreau
The Philadelphia Flyers have announced that goalies Anthony Stolarz, and Alex Lyon along with center Cole Bardreau have re-signed with the club. Both goaltenders inked two-way, one year deals while Bardreau agreed to a two-year contract.
Lyon spent last season with AHL affiliate Lehigh Valley and posted a 27-14-5 mark with a .912 save percentage. Stolarz spent a chunk of his season in Lehigh Valley but appeared in seven games for the Flyers, recording a 2-1-1 record with a .928 save percentage. He recorded his first career shutout against Detroit in just his second professional start with the Flyers. Courier Post writer Dave Issac reports that the signings of both netminders “opens the door” for 2015 pick Felix Sandstrom who is currently playing in Sweden.
Bardreau was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015, and did enough work for the Phantoms to bring him back for another two seasons in the organization. Recording 24 points in 72 games, Bardreau potted nine goals.
With the signings, general manager Ron Hextall has locked up the team’s three remaining free agents.
Taylor Leier Accepts Qualifying Offer
- The Flyers have agreed to terms on a one-year, two-way deal with Taylor Leier, TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link). The contract is reportedly worth $807K which suggests that he simply accepted their qualifying offer. Leier collected a goal and an assist in ten games with Philadelphia this past season while adding 37 points (14-23-37) in 48 games with their AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley.