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Metropolitan Notes: St. Ivany, Tuomaala, Duclair

September 16, 2024 at 12:43 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

Jack St. Ivany has the inside track at landing the third pairing right defense spot that will be up for grabs during Penguins training camp, opines Josh Yohe of The Athletic.

St. Ivany, 25, was a fourth-round pick of the rival Flyers in 2018 but didn’t sign with them following his senior season at Boston College in 2022. He instead landed in Pittsburgh as a free agent, signing a two-year, entry-level contract.

The California native reached the NHL last season after spending his first pro campaign entirely in the minors, recording an assist while averaging 13:42 per game over 14 contests over a late-season call-up. He didn’t have many visible mistakes, only logging three giveaways, although his overall defensive impact was questionable, with a -6.5 relative CF% at even strength in tough but not overwhelmingly difficult minutes.

But as Yohe points out, St. Ivany doesn’t have many legitimate challengers for the role, at least among right-shot defenders. Free agent addition Sebastian Aho could flip to his off-side and be a higher-upside option offensively if the Penguins wish, though.

St. Ivany signed a three-year, league-minimum extension back in May and has a two-way salary structure this year and next. He’s also still waiver-exempt, so if he falls behind off-handed competition like Aho and Ryan Shea during training camp, there’s nothing stopping Pittsburgh from assigning him to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton without incident.

More from the Metropolitan Division:

  • Flyers prospect Samu Tuomaala remains absent from rookie camp and is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, per Jordan Hall of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The 21-year-old right-winger has two years remaining on his entry-level contract and is coming off an impressive first season with the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, where he finished third in scoring with 43 points (15 G, 28 A) in 69 games. The 2021 second-round pick is destined for the Phantoms once again to open the season but should put himself under consideration for an NHL call-up and corresponding debut over the course of the season.
  • The Islanders will indeed kick off camp with free agent signing Anthony Duclair riding shotgun on the top line with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, head coach Patrick Roy told reporters today (via Stefen Rosner of NHL.com and The Hockey News). The 29-year-old Duclair did quite well in a similar role in a limited time for the Lightning after they acquired him from the Sharks at last year’s deadline, posting 15 points in 17 games next to their star-powered duo of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. The Isles signed Duclair, who’s averaged 21 goals and 43 points per 82 games throughout his career, to a four-year, $14MM deal on July 1.

Injury| New York Islanders| Philadelphia Flyers| Pittsburgh Penguins Anthony Duclair| Jack St. Ivany| Samu Tuomaala

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Ilya Sorokin Had Back Surgery, Not Expected To Miss Time

September 16, 2024 at 10:59 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

Star Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin underwent back surgery this offseason, head coach Patrick Roy told reporters Monday (via Stefen Rosner of NHL.com and The Hockey News). General manager Lou Lamoriello said Friday that Sorokin sustained an undisclosed injury this summer but had already returned to the ice and was expected to be a full participant shortly after training camp began.

A significant offseason procedure likely isn’t the way either side wanted to preface the eight-year, $66MM extension he signed last summer. But if a back injury was plaguing him last season, it offers an explanation for his more down-to-earth .908 SV% and 3.01 GAA that ended up losing him the starters’ crease to Semyon Varlamov in playoff action. Sorokin did start in Game 3 of the First Round against the Hurricanes, but he allowed three goals on 14 shots before getting the yank from Roy.

Despite those struggles, there’s little question that Sorokin remains a top-10 netminder in the NHL entering this season. He still finished eighth in Vezina Trophy voting last season and built up quite the acclaim in the two years prior, posting a .924 SV% and 2.37 GAA with 13 shutouts in 114 appearances across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns. He was the no-contest runner-up to Linus Ullmark in Vezina voting in 2023.

But if Sorokin’s recovery stretches into the regular season for whatever reason, the Isles still have a spectacular backup plan with Varlamov. Due to Sorokin’s brilliance, the 36-year-old Russian has been limited to fewer than 30 starts in each of the past three seasons, but he’s still been well above average. He had a .918 SV%, 2.60 GAA, and three shutouts in 28 appearances last season.

Sorokin, 29, was a third-round pick of the Isles back in 2014. He has a .919 SV% in 192 regular-season NHL games since arriving in North America in 2020.

Injury| New York Islanders| Newsstand Ilya Sorokin

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Red Wings Sign Jonatan Berggren

September 16, 2024 at 10:55 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 4 Comments

The Red Wings have signed restricted free agent winger Jonatan Berggren to a one-year deal worth $825K, per a team announcement.

It’s a fair pact for a player looking to return to a regular NHL role in 2024-25. After recording 15 goals and 28 points in 67 games during his rookie campaign in 2022-23, the 24-year-old Berggren spent most of last season with the Wings’ AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins. He was limited to 12 NHL appearances in various call-ups throughout the year, still managing a pair of goals and six points while averaging 10:52 per game.

Detroit general manager Steve Yzerman hoped to save Berggren’s deal until after they came to terms with a pair of household-name RFAs in Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, but it wasn’t to be. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported earlier this month that having Berggren signed by the time training camp begins was a must for the Wings, giving him a full-length runway to reclaim a roster spot over the coming weeks.

Raymond and Seider remain without deals and will officially be training camp holdouts if they don’t sign by Wednesday morning. After signing Berggren, the Red Wings have $16.82MM in cap space to accommodate the RFA duo, per PuckPedia.

Despite the demotion, Berggren was electric in Grand Rapids. The 2018 second-rounder led the Griffins in scoring with 56 points (24 G, 32 A) in 53 games and added 10 points in nine playoff contests.

Even upon Raymond’s return, Berggren has a decent shot at claiming a top-nine role in Detroit this season with Robby Fabbri, David Perron, and Daniel Sprong out of the picture. If he holds out into the regular season, Berggren could even serve as a top-six placeholder for his countryman.

Berggren is no longer waiver-exempt, so the Red Wings would likely lose him to another club if they attempt to send him back to Grand Rapids again. He’ll have arbitration rights if he reaches restricted free agency next summer.

Detroit Red Wings| Transactions Jonatan Berggren

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Penguins Sign Sidney Crosby To Two-Year Extension

September 16, 2024 at 10:34 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 13 Comments

The Penguins have signed captain Sidney Crosby to a two-year, $17.4MM contract extension, the team announced. It carries a cap hit of $8.7MM.

Crosby’s deal will be paid out mostly in signing bonuses, per PuckPedia. He’ll earn $780K in base salary with a $9MM signing bonus in 2025-26 and a $1.09MM base salary with a $6.53MM signing bonus in 2026-27. As suspected, his contract includes a full no-move clause.

In an instant, a giant cloud that would have loomed over Pittsburgh’s training camp later this week dissipated. The two-year pact ends an unexpected extension saga that began two months ago after reports that Crosby and the Pens were finalizing a deal went unfulfilled.

Some anxiety returned when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said on the “32 Thoughts” podcast earlier this month that Crosby was still weighing multiple extension offers from the Penguins but had yet to put pen to paper because he wasn’t sure whether he’d be able to “handle” missing the playoffs on a retooling club while still performing at an elite level. The 37-year-old told Friedman last week that he was “pretty optimistic” an extension would be done before training camp.

The two-year length shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. It allows the Penguins more salary cap flexibility in the future should the aging curve finally come for Crosby, as alluded to by Friedman on Friday, and it also gives him another opportunity to move on from Pittsburgh in 2027 should the Penguins’ record not return to a meaningfully competitive level.

Entering his 20th season, Crosby is still the heart and soul of hockey in Pittsburgh. The 2005 first-overall pick finished ninth in both Hart and Selke Trophy voting last season after leading the Penguins in goals (42), assists (52), points (94), and shots on goal (278).

“There are no words to properly describe what Sidney Crosby means to the game of hockey, the city of Pittsburgh and the Penguins organization,” said general manager Kyle Dubas. “Sidney is the greatest player of his generation and one of the greatest players in the history of the game. His actions today show why he is one of hockey’s greatest winners and leaders. Sid is making a tremendous personal sacrifice in an effort to help the Penguins win, both now and in the future, as he has done for his entire career.”

Crosby could have become an unrestricted free agent for the first time next summer without an extension. The three-time Stanley Cup champion is entering the final season of the 12-year, $104.4MM mega-deal with an $8.7MM cap hit he signed in 2012. The first deal he signed following the expiry of his entry-level contract, a five-year, $43.5MM pact that covered from 2008-09 to 2012-13, also had an $8.7MM AAV.

He is still playing at a superstar level, yet this is a much more cost-effective contract for Pittsburgh than his previous ones. That first extension cost 15.34% of the cap when it went into effect in 2008, while today’s deal takes up just 9.89% of the salary cap at its start. That’s not to say his previous deals weren’t bargains, though – The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn estimates Crosby has left roughly $43MM on the table throughout his career by taking deals lower than market value.

Assuming a $92MM salary cap for 2025-26, the Pens have $23.3MM in projected cap space for next season with seven open roster spots, per PuckPedia. They only have one notable pending RFA, fresh trade pickup Cody Glass. But there’s a decent slate of pending UFAs on Pittsburgh’s books, headlined by defenseman Marcus Pettersson. Those extension talks are expected to shift into high gear with Crosby’s deal becoming official.

Crosby sits 21st in league history in goals (592), 14th in assists (1,004), 10th in points (1,596), and eighth in points per game (1.25) among players with at least 500 appearances. The latter is the most telling stat, with concussions costing ’Sid The Kid’ a good chunk of his prime in the early 2010s. He was rightfully named among the 100 greatest players in NHL history during the league’s centennial celebration in 2017.

The Penguins have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, their first time outside the playoff picture since Crosby’s rookie season in 2006. Both sides hope Crosby’s discount deal helps them return to form.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Newsstand| Pittsburgh Penguins| Transactions Sidney Crosby

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Devils Sign Andy Welinski To PTO

September 16, 2024 at 9:02 am CDT | by Josh Erickson Leave a Comment

The Devils have signed defenseman Andy Welinski to a professional tryout, general manager Tom Fitzgerald announced Monday. The team also confirmed that former Sharks forward Kevin Labanc will be in camp, as initially reported Sunday by Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now.

Welinski, 31, hasn’t seen NHL ice since he was a part of the Ducks organization in the 2020-21 season. The Anaheim 2011 third-round pick has 46 games of NHL experience – all in Orange County – with a goal, five assists, six points, and a -2 rating while averaging 15:46 per game.

The organizational depth defender has been an AHL fixture in recent years. After a PTO with the Blues last year proved unsuccessful, Welinski settled for an AHL contract with the Iowa Wild. He posted 10 points in 27 games with the Minnesota affiliate before being sent to the Panthers organization at the minor-league trade deadline. He went without a point in eight appearances for the Charlotte Checkers.

Welinski looks to earn his first NHL contract in camp with the Devils since inking a two-way pact with the Rangers for 2022-23. The native of Duluth, Minnesota, is still a capable veteran puck-mover at the AHL level and would benefit New Jersey’s affiliate, the Utica Comets, especially early on in the season. They’ll likely be without a regular for the first few weeks of the campaign with Luke Hughes out with a shoulder injury, creating a ripple effect that will have one of the Comets’ top names on the NHL roster as a reserve on opening night.

In parts of nine AHL seasons, Welinski has 42 goals, 110 assists, 152 points, 119 PIMs, and a -17 rating in 319 appearances.

New Jersey Devils| Transactions Andy Welinski| Kevin Labanc

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Devils Optimistic About Signing Dawson Mercer Before Camp

September 16, 2024 at 8:47 am CDT | by Josh Erickson Leave a Comment

The Devils continue to grind away at contract negotiations with restricted free agent forward Dawson Mercer, and there’s a sense of optimism the two sides will agree on a bridge deal before training camp opens Wednesday, Peter Baugh of The Athletic reports.

Talks seemed to be at a standstill for much of the summer until New Jersey general manager Tom Fitzgerald told James Murphy of Responsible Gambling last month that he’d exchanged proposals with Mercer’s camp and was working toward an agreement. Multiple reports since then indicated a short-term contract was the likeliest outcome. PHR’s Brian La Rose examined possible comparables for Mercer’s pending deal earlier this month, exhausting any long-term options.

The Devils have less than $5MM in projected cap space to get a deal done, per PuckPedia. That number could increase slightly to begin the season if they place defenseman Luke Hughes on long-term injured reserve while rehabbing a shoulder injury. Still, they’d need to clear enough cap space to activate him quickly, as his absence isn’t expected to stretch past early November.

A bridge deal with a sub-$5MM cap hit seems fair to both sides after the season Mercer just had. The 2020 first-round pick’s third NHL season was his worst, posting career lows in assists (13), rating (-26), and shots on goal (134). That came despite a career-high 17:13 ATOI and playing in all 82 games yet again, continuing his career-opening ironman streak.

Yet Mercer, who turns 23 in October, hit 20 goals for the second time and projects as a reliable, versatile top-six utility piece who can play any forward position, even if his overall production this season reflected someone better suited for a third-line role offensively. After hitting 56 points in his sophomore campaign, it’s clear Mercer’s contract year was a bump in the road – one with unfortunate effects on his short-term earnings.

New Jersey Devils Dawson Mercer

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Avalanche, Canadiens, Flyers, Hurricanes Had Interest In Yaroslav Askarov

September 16, 2024 at 7:59 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

The Avalanche, Canadiens, Flyers, and Hurricanes were the main contenders in trade talks with the Predators for top goaltending prospect Yaroslav Askarov before he was dealt to the Sharks, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic.

Sources didn’t divulge details about those teams’ losing offers for the netminder, LeBrun said, but he did mention the Predators are high on Golden Knights 2023 first-rounder David Edstrom, who San Jose picked up in last season’s Tomáš Hertl blockbuster. That was likely the primary factor that led Nashville general manager Barry Trotz to pick the Sharks’ offer over the four others, all of which presumably included a first-round pick to have any degree of seriousness in discussions.

“I think we did a fair deal with San Jose,” Trotz told LeBrun. “In negotiating with [Sharks GM Mike Grier], it was always, ‘Let’s do a good hockey trade.’ You get the best prospect, you’re going to win the trade most times, but I’m really happy to get David Edstrom because we want to continue to add to our center ice. Our scouts really liked him. He was something we really liked at the draft. And getting the pick (Vegas’ 2025 first-round pick), it gives us a lot [of] draft capital now with three first-round picks next year.”

The full trade came across the wire on Aug. 23, just four days after Kevin Weekes of ESPN reported Askarov had submitted a formal trade request. San Jose also acquired forward prospect Nolan Burke and the Avalanche’s 2025 third-round pick, while the Preds also picked up goalie prospect Magnus Chrona in the swap.

But Nashville managed to keep the request under wraps before it leaked to the rest of the hockey world, per LeBrun. Askarov and his agent, Gold Star Hockey’s Dan Milstein, told Trotz in a Zoom meeting on Aug. 2 that he wouldn’t report to training camp if he weren’t moved.

For the four runner-up clubs, it’s easy to see why they had interest. They each have quality goaltending prospects/youngsters in their own right, whether it be Justus Annunen in Colorado, Jacob Fowler in Montreal, Carson Bjarnason in Philadelphia, or Pyotr Kochetkov in Carolina. But aside from the latter, none of them profile as the potential true gamebreaker San Jose now has in Askarov.

The Avs didn’t have their 2025 first-rounder available after trading it to the Flyers for Sean Walker at this year’s deadline, making it hard for them to construct a competitive offer. The Flyers had plenty of first-rounders available – three of them – but they don’t have a low ’A’-tier prospect in their pool that they would have been willing to part with, like Edstrom. The Canes also had draft capital but were likely wary of moving on from their more polished prospects, many of whom they expect will make an NHL impact this season after losing a lot of names to free agency. The Habs have plenty of picks and prospects still stockpiled, but how many were they willing to make available without fully turning the corner in their rebuild?

Carolina Hurricanes| Colorado Avalanche| Montreal Canadiens| Newsstand| Philadelphia Flyers| San Jose Sharks Yaroslav Askarov

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Five Key Stories: 9/9/24 – 9/15/24

September 15, 2024 at 9:09 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With training camps on the horizon, PTO agreements were the theme of the week with many veterans taking one to get a landing spot for training camp.  In the meantime, there was some other notable news across the NHL which is recapped in our key stories.

Columbus Adds A Veteran: On Saturday, Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell indicated that he would be looking to add a forward or two heading into training camp.  He wasted little time getting one of them as the team signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year, $900K contract.  The 35-year-old is coming off a decent season in Boston, one that saw him record 11 goals and 27 assists in 71 games despite averaging just 13:30 per night, his lowest ATOI since his rookie campaign in 2009-10.  Columbus is certainly on the lookout for some scoring help following the trade of Patrik Laine and the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau while forward Justin Danforth is also now injured so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do something else fairly quickly.

Surgery For Kane: For months now, it has been expected that Oilers winger Evander Kane was going to miss time with the injury that sidelined him late in the playoffs.  We now know the nature of the injury as it was revealed that the veteran will undergo sports hernia surgery within the next week.  Kane played through the injury for a good chunk of the regular season and most of the playoffs but was only able to dress in two games in the Stanley Cup Final.  There’s no word on exactly how long the procedure will keep Kane out for but assuming it’s for more than 10 games and 24 days, Edmonton will be able to place him on LTIR if they need to in order to keep cap-compliant.

Four For Larsson: Veteran defenseman Adam Larsson was picked by Seattle in expansion despite being a pending unrestricted free agent although he was quickly signed to a four-year deal.  The 31-year-old has been a solid defender in his first three seasons with them while even managing a career year offensively in 2022-23.  He was rewarded for his efforts earlier in the week as the Kraken signed him to a four-year, $21MM contract extension which begins in the 2025-26 season.  The deal represents a $1.1MM per season raise from his current deal and carries full trade protection for the first two years before it drops to a 15-team no-trade clause.

Shoulder Injury For Hughes: With this being a contract year for Devils defenseman Luke Hughes, it’s safe to say he was hoping to get off to a strong start to his season.  That won’t be the case now as the team announced that he suffered a left shoulder injury while training, one that will keep him out for six to eight weeks.  That means the 21-year-old will miss all of training camp, the preseason, and the start of the regular season.  Hughes had a promising rookie year, recording 47 points in 82 games last season which helped make him a finalist for the Calder Trophy.  He’ll now have to wait a little longer to try to build off that performance.

Toronto Signs Three: The Maple Leafs were busy finalizing their roster heading into training camp.  First, they took care of their last remaining restricted free agent, re-signing Nicholas Robertson to a one-year, $875K contract.  The 23-year-old had 27 points in 56 games last season but had made it known his preference was to get a change of scenery.  Now, he’ll look to make an impression under new head coach Craig Berube and establish himself higher in the lineup.

Meanwhile, they added two new players to the team as well.  Veteran Max Pacioretty signed a PTO agreement although his agent, Octagon’s Allan Walsh, quickly noted that they expect to have a contract in place by the start of the regular season.  The 35-year-old has battled injuries the last three seasons but still managed to record 23 points in 47 games with Washington in 2023-24.  Lastly, the team finally inked defenseman Jani Hakanpaa, who they had agreed to terms with on the opening day of free agency.  However, the terms are slightly different.  Instead of a two-year, $3MM agreement, he received a one-year, $1.47MM contract with an eight-team no-trade clause.  Hakanpaa was a physical presence on the back end in Dallas last season but there are concerns over his knee after missing the end of the season and the playoffs due to injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Week In Review

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Canucks Sign Dylan Ferguson To PTO Deal

September 15, 2024 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The Canucks have been looking for some goaltending insurance with Thatcher Demko’s lingering injury.  They’ve found an extra netminder for training camp as the team announced (Twitter link) that they’ve signed Dylan Ferguson to a PTO agreement.

The 25-year-old spent last season in the KHL after being non-tendered last summer.  He played in 23 games with Dinamo Minsk, posting a 9-9-0 record along with a 2.51 GAA and a .904 SV%, putting him 30th and 46th respectively in those categories.

Ferguson has three career NHL appearances under his belt, one with Vegas in their inaugural season and two with Ottawa in the 2022-23 campaign.  In between those outings, he has spent parts of four seasons in the minors but played only sparingly due to injuries, getting into just 29 games overall where he put up a 2.56 GAA and a .915 SV%.

As things stand, Arturs Silovs is set to serve as the starter in Demko’s absence with free agent signing Jiri Patera – formerly Ferguson’s teammate in Vegas – operating as the backup.  That could give Ferguson a chance to battle for minutes with Nikita Tolopilo and Ty Young who are both on their entry-level deals.  While it seems unlikely that Ferguson would get an NHL deal at this time, if he does, he can be controlled through the 2025-26 season.

Transactions| Vancouver Canucks Dylan Ferguson

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PHR Mailbag: Bounce-Back Seasons, McDavid, Breakout Player, Flames, Bedard, Demidov, No-Move Clauses

September 15, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what type of point production could be expected from Connor Bedard this season, which teams could be interested in Calgary’s veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

frozenaquatic: This is a question about expectations, both low and high: Who has a bigger bounce-back season, Matthew Beniers or Trevor Zegras? How do Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli stack up in their sophomore campaigns? And what do we really expect out of Pierre-Luc Dubois for the Caps in terms of production (what’s your prediction for goals and points)?

DigbyGuy: I would add Dylan Cozens to the bounce-back season question.

1) Between Beniers, Zegras, and Cozens, I’d go with Cozens.  The Ducks had a dreadful showing offensively last year and didn’t add anyone of consequence to help their roster.  Yes, there will be some improvement from their young core – including Zegras – but a bounce-back year for him might be staying healthy and getting to 55 points.  I think Beniers can beat his rookie-season numbers although I’m not expecting a huge jump past that.  I’d put him in the 60-65-point range.  Cozens has already gotten there before and I expect the Sabres to be more consistent offensively so I’d slot him a few points ahead of Beniers.

2) I’m concerned about the offensive situation in Columbus.  More specifically, the lack thereof.  The Blue Jackets have a very weak attack as things stand and even if Fantilli plays a big role, a big point total is unlikely.  I could see him around 50-55 points.  Anaheim’s situation, as I noted above, isn’t particularly good either but I’d put theirs ahead.  Add to that Carlsson likely playing on the front line (Fantilli probably starts behind Sean Monahan, their big offseason signing) and I think Carlsson lands around 60-65 points.

3) I think Dubois will primarily line up on the second line which is going to put his playing time pretty close (maybe slightly better) than it was with the Kings last season.  He’s also now on a team that doesn’t have quite as much offensive depth.  That should give Dubois enough runway to be more productive than he was a year ago but I wouldn’t put him at the level he was at with Winnipeg.  I think he’ll wind up somewhere around 22 goals and 53 points.

drew ford: There’s social media banter about Connor McDavid playing out his Oiler contract and signing back home in Toronto. Do you think this is a possibility?

Two years out from McDavid’s free agency, anything is technically a possibility at this point.  If things go entirely off the rails this season, he could very well decide that he wants to see what it’s like to play somewhere else and yes, his hometown team could theoretically be one of those options.  But the odds of that happening have to be quite low.

For starters, Edmonton is widely expected to be a contender this season and just inked Leon Draisaitl to a record-setting contract, declining to match two offer sheets to ensure enough money was available to do so.  This is a team that is squarely focused on winning now.  When you’re in an environment like that and having the type of success he has had, why leave?  If they were embarking on a rebuild, that’s one thing but there’s no indication they’ll be in that situation for the foreseeable future.

The other challenge the Maple Leafs would have is affording him.  Yes, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are on expiring contracts and if they were only replaced (or retained) on one-year deals, they could keep enough flexibility to be able to afford McDavid should he actually hit the open market in 2026.  I don’t see that happening so I’m skeptical they’d be able to afford the $16MM or more it’s probably going to take to sign him.  But again, it’s highly unlikely he makes it that far anyway.  Never say never to a hypothetical free agent situation two years out but let’s just say this is something I don’t expect to happen.

Nha Trang: Time for my annual question: who’s the guy who comes out of nowhere to be a major impact player this season?

Evidently, I’m getting worse at this each season.  The first time this question came up, I had Tage Thompson in his breakout year.  Then I went with Taylor Raddysh for 2022-23 and while he managed 20 goals, that wasn’t the same level of a breakout.  Morgan Geekie was my pick last season and although he had a career year with 39 points in 76 games, that’s not a true breakout.  (I did get a reasonable return on one of my two longshot picks though with Michael Carcone getting a 21-goal campaign after just having six career NHL tallies heading into the year.)

For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  I’ll continue to stick with that despite it making this question a bit more challenging.

My initial thought to this question is Montreal’s Kirby Dach.  He’s coming off yet another injury-riddled campaign but he showed some positive signs when healthy in his first season with the Canadiens.  He also now has an intriguing winger in Patrik Laine.  If the two of them can stay healthy (and that’s a big if on both fronts), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dach could push for 60 points which would be a new personal best by a pretty big margin.  That’s not quite a Thompson-like leap but it would certainly flip the script on him being an underwhelming top-three pick to an impact player.

Jaysen: I’m not an expert by any means but I can sense that the Flames are about to enter a full-scale rebuild, even though they might not say it. Kadri has been rumored to be available. But that Huberdeau contract is nearly impossible to move. I’d keep Weegar, for now.

What are your top three destinations for both Kadri and Huberdeau, and what would be the best trade return for both players that could benefit the Flames? And for Huberdeau, let’s propose a return where the Flames retain and one where they don’t.

DigbyGuy: I would add Rasmus Andersson to this as well.

I’m going to cover Jonathan Huberdeau first as the answer here is pretty quick.  With him making $10.5MM through 2030-31 and coming off two seasons with a point total in the 50s, there isn’t one viable trade option for him let alone three.  That contract might be the worst in the league.  Could there be a fit with maximum retention?  Possibly but the return wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to justify the $36.75MM in actual money they’d have to pay Huberdeau not to play for them; ownership probably isn’t signing off on that type of move either.  Maybe there would be an option three or four years from now when the term isn’t as bad but right now, that’s not a movable contract.

Nazem Kadri, on the other hand, has a viable trade market should GM Craig Conroy choose to pursue it.  At $7MM for four years, it’s a bit pricey for a second liner but there’s always high demand for a center.  Winnipeg comes to mind as a good fit as they’ve been looking for a consistent second center behind Mark Scheifele for a while.  Minnesota would be another fit although they’d need to wait until next season to do it (or Calgary would really have to pay down the cost) to make it work within their current cap situation.  But they’re another team that hasn’t had a consistent number two option for a while.

For a third team, I’d put Chicago which might seem strange at first glance given the prospect depth they have down the middle.  But those prospects might be a couple more years away and at that point, Kadri becomes a high-end third option, one they can afford since they’ll have so many players and prospects on likely below-market contracts.  But as they look to get through their rebuild, they will need some capable veterans.

As for a hypothetical trade scenario, there are way too many elements to consider here.  Can they retain?  If so, how much?  Can they take money back?  If so, how much?  How full-scale of a rebuild are they going for?  That determines the preferred type of assets to acquire (draft picks, junior-aged prospects, or pieces close to contributing now.)  Each answer to each question would modify the trade proposal and that’s too many variables to get through in a piece like this for three separate teams.  The short answer is that if it’s a full-scale rebuild (and I’m not convinced it is), get the best combination of assets possible regardless of whether they’re near-ready pieces or ones that are five or six years away.  You can always find short-term stopgaps (bridge players as I call them sometimes) to fill out a roster or hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop properly so Conroy shouldn’t restrict himself to looking for specific types of assets.

Onto Andersson now.  If Calgary decides to move him, I imagine Conroy would get a call from about 15 general managers in about 15 minutes.  The contract is more than manageable ($4.55MM for a top-pairing player for only two years) and he’s a right-shot player to boot, the side that’s always in high demand.  The best way to answer this is as follows.  If you’re wondering about teams who might be interested, look at the standings on March 1st.  Pretty much any team within five points of a playoff spot at that time would be calling unless they’re a team already well-stocked on the back end.  Dallas and Nashville come to mind in particular; no, I wasn’t cherry-picking Central Division teams as landing spots on purpose, it just worked out that way.

bottlesup: With Bedard getting a year of experience under his belt and much more veteran support around him, is it possible to think he can hit a point per game this year?

Yeah, I’d say that’s a more than reasonable goal to try to achieve.  He wasn’t that far off the mark last season with 61 points in 68 games.  With the return of Taylor Hall (who missed all of last season) and the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, he’s going to have wingers who are much better fits to play on the top line and should be better at finishing some of Bedard’s passes.  If he stays healthy, 90 points is where I’d peg Bedard’s point total at for the upcoming season.

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@3rdWorldGhost: I don’t understand why people are saying that Demidov is better than Michkov. I’m a @CanadiensMTL fan, but let’s be real, Demidov (I’m a fan) played great in the MHL, Michkov starred in the K. Very different levels of competition there. So, is this just media-driven?

I don’t think it’s media-driven at all.  We’re talking about two highly-skilled Russian prospects who were originally projected to be top two or three picks that slid on draft day taken just one year apart.  One went fifth, one went seventh.  They’re close enough that they’re going to be compared and some will have one ahead of the other.

One of the challenges with comparing the two is indeed quality of competition as you noted.  SKA St. Petersburg elected to loan Matvei Michkov to KHL Sochi, giving him a chance to play big minutes for a team that simply wasn’t very good.  That same organization felt that they were better off demoting Ivan Demidov down two levels to the MHL last season, a move that really didn’t make much sense then or now.  Just because Michkov lit it up doesn’t mean that Demidov wouldn’t have had he been afforded the same opportunity.  It doesn’t mean Demidov would have been as successful either but it does make it a lot harder to compare the two based on quality of competition.  Michkov having KHL success gives him some points in the comparison but it’s not the primary ranking factor either.

In the scouting world, it comes down to tools.  Frankly, both players have a vast and well-rounded toolkit of skills which is why they’re so highly touted.  Some scouts probably prefer Michkov, some think Demidov, who’s a year younger, will ultimately have the better skills.  It’s all in the eyes of the scout.  I wouldn’t read too much into a ranking pinning one ahead of the other; I’d say the general consensus is that the two are rated almost equally.

Jakeattack: I might be misunderstanding this, but what is the reasoning behind a player having both an NMC and a modified no-trade clause? Case in point, PuckPedia says that for Jonathan Marchessault.

In cases like this, think of the NMC as a NWC – a no-waivers clause.  If a player has a full no-move clause and nothing else, it’s a catch-all that prevents a trade or waiver placement without consent.  But if a player only has partial trade protection as Marchessault does, the addition of the no-move is merely to prevent a waiver placement.  This is actually fairly common around the league, especially for teams that are a bit stingier with how they hand out trade protection as Nashville is.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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