Free Agent Profile: Mack Guzda
Generally, we use this profile series for players that are about to hit the open market or for restricted free agents with a notable contract that needs to be negotiated. However, there is a free agent that is currently generating a lot of interest in undrafted goaltender Mack Guzda.
Last season, the OHL was the one major junior league that didn’t play at all and while some of their players were able to catch on with teams overseas, many, including Guzda, didn’t. He was second in the OHL in games played in 2019-20 but it wasn’t enough to be drafted despite being a starter the season before as well. That, coupled with not playing last season, largely had him off the radar heading into 2021-22.
That changed pretty quickly once this season got underway. He got off to a strong start with Owen Sound but with the Attack having another capable netminder in Nick Chenard and wanting to clear an overage slot, he was flipped to Barrie. Since joining the Colts, he has been one of the top goalies in the league, earning Goaltender of the Month honors for December and January, garnering the attention of several NHL teams in the process.
Stats
2021-22: 25 GP, 16-7-1 record, 2.61 GAA, .920 SV%, 2 SO
OHL Career: 155 GP, 74-52-18 record, 3.22 GAA, .894 SV%, 7 SO
Potential Suitors
Last weekend, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reported in a 32 Thoughts segment (video link) that there are at least seven teams showing interest in the 21-year-old. The Maple Leafs were classified as an aggressive suitor with Guzda mentioning to TSN’s Mark Masters that he recently met with them. Marek indicated that the Predators, Penguins, and Rangers are perceived to be frontrunners for the Tennessee native while the Hurricanes, Islanders, and Ducks have also shown interest in Guzda. Other teams could get into the mix as well; these are just the ones that have already been linked to him.
Guzda will need to evaluate which organization provides the best way to playing time at the AHL level to start and who could have an NHL opening a few years from now; it’s quite unlikely that an undrafted junior goalie would push for NHL minutes within the first couple of seasons of his contract.
Projected Contract
With that many teams interested in him, Guzda should be able to land an entry-level contract worth the maximum before bonuses, one that would carry an AAV of $925K, 10% of which would be in the form of a signing bonus. Significant performance incentives wouldn’t be likely, especially with goaltenders typically having a longer development curve than skaters.
At this point, the bigger question will be the timing of the contract. If he signs now, he’d burn the first year of the contract immediately, allowing him to get to restricted free agency a year earlier. Of course, at that time, he’s likely still in the minors so the allure of trying to get to bigger money quicker like some prospects do doesn’t necessarily apply to him. Accordingly, he could wait until March to sign when future contracts could be signed, permitting him to sign for three years with the first season being 2022-23. That’s likely the preferred option for his suitors.
Whether it’s over the next few weeks or next month when contracts for next season can be signed, it appears Guzda will be landing an NHL deal somewhere, a nice reward after being passed up in the draft multiple times.
Morning Notes: Skills Results, Bruins, KHL
The NHL held their Skills Competition as part of their All-Star festivities last night. The winners for each event are as follows:
Fastest Skater: Jordan Kyrou (Blues)
Save Streak: Jack Campbell (Maple Leafs) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning)
Fountain Faceoff: Zach Werenski (Blue Jackets)
Hardest Shot: Victor Hedman (Lightning)
Breakaway Challenge: Alex Pietrangelo (Golden Knights)
21 in ’22: Joe Pavelski (Stars)
Accuracy Shooting: Sebastian Aho (Hurricanes)
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- There are teams with some interest in Bruins youngsters Jack Studnicka and Urho Vaakanainen but there are questions as to what the upside for both players are, suggests Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic (subscription link). Studnicka started the season in Boston’s top six but has spent most of the season in the minors while Vaakanainen’s limited experience makes it hard to project whether or not he could become a second-pairing rearguard. Both players are potential trade options if the Bruins try to make a splash at the trade deadline but those questions of upside will make their value considerably varied around the league which could complicate things in a trade.
- The KHL announced that they have canceled the remainder of their regular season. The season was paused in mid-January due to several COVID outbreaks and while teams have less than 10 games remaining, the Olympic break would make it too difficult to play the rest of the season without compressing the playoff schedule too much. Instead, they’ll elect to start their postseason on March 1st with more of a normal schedule while the seedings will be based on win percentage. The IIHF World Hockey Championships are slated to begin in mid-May so this isn’t a situation where the KHL could have played later in the spring; they want to be finished by then so their players can participate in this tournament.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond with contract statuses as of the beginning of the year. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Arizona Coyotes
Current Cap Hit: $74,484,534 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Barrett Hayton ($864K this season)
D Janis Moser ($887K through 2023-24)
G Karel Vejmelka ($842.5K this season)
Potential Bonuses:
Hayton: $2.15MM
Moser: $82.5K
Vejmelka: $82.5K
Total: $2.315MM
Hayton has not lived up to his draft billing, one that felt like an overdraft at the time when he went fifth overall on the back of being a center in a draft where there weren’t many centers ranked high. He’s averaging nearly 17 minutes this season but hasn’t done much with them. There’s no way a long-term contract will be on the table in the summer; he’ll be looking at a bridge deal and a one-year pact wouldn’t be surprising at a little over his current AAV.
Moser was somewhat of a surprise second-rounder in the last draft in his third year of eligibility but he is a quality late-bloomer as he has worked his way into a regular role on Arizona’s third pairing over the last couple of months. It’s a role that shouldn’t make him overly pricey if he stays there over the next two seasons although with how quickly he has worked his way into the lineup, it’s certainly fair to think he could still have another level in him.
Vejmelka (who was once a Nashville prospect that went unsigned) went from a candidate to battle for the backup spot to their full-fledged starter fairly quickly. His overall numbers aren’t great but he has shown enough to get a multi-year deal this summer to remain part of the tandem for the Coyotes for a little while yet. At 25, he’s already arbitration-eligible although, with a limited track record, that won’t help a lot. He should still be able to at least double his current AAV and if a third season is tacked on, a cap hit around the $2MM range is reasonable.
Signed Through 2021-22, Non-Entry-Level
F Jay Beagle ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Travis Boyd ($750K, UFA)
D Kyle Capobianco ($775K, RFA)
F Lawson Crouse ($1.533MM, RFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Loui Eriksson ($6MM, UFA)
F Christian Fischer ($1MM, RFA)
F Alex Galchenyuk ($750K, RFA)
G Carter Hutton ($750K, UFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM, UFA)*
D Dysin Mayo ($750K, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($750K, UFA)
F Liam O’Brien ($750K, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($3MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($825K, UFA)
*-Toronto is retaining an additional $1.2MM of Kessel’s salary
Yes, the overwhelming majority of Arizona’s roster is only signed through this season and that’s by design. There are some notable players among the long list of fillers though.
Kessel hasn’t been able to score much this season – few have for the Coyotes – but he has become a better playmaker along the way. He’s a strong candidate to be moved at the deadline but with only a $1MM base salary, Arizona should be in no rush to move him as whatever contract they take to offset his AAV will undoubtedly cost more in salary dollars. Kessel won’t be able to command anywhere near his $8MM price tag on the open market but as a serviceable secondary scorer, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him in the $5MM range when all is said and done. Worth noting is that he turns 35 in October which means he isn’t subject to the 35-plus classification, giving interested teams a chance to work out a multi-year deal without any risk.
Among the RFA forwards, Crouse is heading for a nice pay raise. He has been given a much bigger role this season and has made the most of it, scoring at close to a 20-goal pace. As a power forward with a bit of offensive touch, there has been considerable trade interest in him but if he sticks around, he’s the type of player where it may not be surprising if GM Bill Armstrong tries to do a long-term deal in the high $4MM/low $5MM range. Fischer has seen his production drop sharply from his rookie season to the point where he is more of a fourth liner instead of someone believed to be part of their long-term plans a few years ago. His qualifying offer is just over $1.125MM but he has arbitration rights. A non-tender isn’t a guarantee but it’s a possibility if they can’t work out a new deal around his current price tag.
Jaskin is an interesting case – his contract made little sense based on his previous NHL history and while he produced overseas, it didn’t translate to the type of top-six role anyone was hoping for. Based on his history as an energy player, he could get a bit more than $1MM in free agency this summer but a trip back to the KHL where a bigger contract likely would be waiting for him is definitely an option as well. Boyd hasn’t had much interest in free agency in the past but his numbers this season could boost his market to the point where he can land a bigger deal and a multi-year commitment.
Many of the other UFA forwards – including the high-priced ones – are depth pieces and role players that are likely looking at something around $1MM or less in free agency. Several of them just went through the process last offseason with low levels of interest while some of their recently acquired players should have some interest at a much lower price tag (Roussel as an energy winger and Beagle as a faceoff specialist, for example). Those players, meanwhile, will likely be either re-signed or replaced by others willing to play for a similar amount.
On the back end, Stralman was acquired in a salary dump from Florida and had a chance to play a bigger role to rebuild some value. He has been decent for the Coyotes but nowhere near the level of a $5.5MM player. He’ll be 36 before next season starts and is someone that may have to go year-to-year from here at a price tag closer to half of what he’s making now. Lyubushkin continues to be a physical, stay-at-home defender and the fact he’s logging over 18 minutes a game will help his value. A deal similar to Jani Hakanpaa’s with Dallas (three years, $1.5MM AAV) should be attainable; while the price would be only a small increase, the security would be nice for someone that has gone year-to-year since coming to North America.
In goal, Wedgewood has helped his value since Arizona claimed him off waivers. He’s still in the lower end of backups and would be a third-string option on a lot of teams though so while he has earned a raise, it will probably be a small one. Something around $1MM – an amount that can be buried in the minors without any residual cap charge – could be attainable and would be a nice raise for someone who has never had a one-way contract before.
Signed Through 2022-23
D Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($850K, RFA)
Ladd was one of many salary dumps the Coyotes took on last offseason with Arizona getting three draft picks (including the one used on Moser) for their troubles. He has been able to hold down a regular spot in the lineup but that’s about all. At this point, it’s hard to see Ladd getting another contract when this one is up but if he does, it’ll be very close to the league minimum.
Gostisbehere has had quite a nice bounce-back season with the Coyotes. After being more of a depth piece with the Flyers, he has again become one of the higher-scoring defensemen in the league, ranking in a tie for 16th overall. If he can maintain that pace for the rest of this deal, he should have a sizable market in 2023 with a shot at a small raise, something that didn’t seem feasible last summer. As for Timmins, he was a key part of the Darcy Kuemper trade but his season came to an end quite early due to a knee injury. At this point, a one-year deal for 2023-24 seems probable unless he’s able to establish himself as a go-to defender next season but with just 39 games of NHL experience, that’s a tough ask.
Wild Looking To Add Center Depth
While the Wild don’t have a true number one center, it hasn’t prevented them from having a strong first half of the season as they sit third in the Central Division. Nevertheless, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on a recent appearance on WGR 550 (audio link) that they’re looking to add some depth down the middle between now and the March 21st trade deadline.
Minnesota has benefitted from Ryan Hartman being able to make the transition back to playing at center after spending most of his career on the wing while Joel Eriksson Ek is a capable, albeit under the radar, top-six two-way pivot as well. However, their depth thins out quickly after that. Frederick Gaudreau has spent most of his career in the minors, Victor Rask is no more than a fourth liner at this stage, and Nico Sturm is still relatively unproven. They also have Nick Bjugstad but he’s currently injured and is also more of a role player than a core piece.
As a result, there’s definitely a need for GM Bill Guerin to try to add a middleman. In a perfect world, someone that can play on the third line or move onto the second line would be a good fit but the Wild certainly won’t be the only team looking for someone like that.
From a salary cap standpoint, Minnesota is in good shape for this season. Per CapFriendly, they can add someone making a little over $5.3MM today, a number that more than doubles if they wait until the trade deadline. Affording an upgrade won’t be an issue as long as it’s a rental player. With the dead cap charges for the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise increasing by $8MM for next season, the Wild are unlikely to want to bring in anyone with term unless it’s a very team-friendly contract that would carry a significant price to trade for.
Dreger notes that Ottawa and Minnesota have scouted each other a lot lately and it just so happens that the Senators have a center that could fit what the Wild need in Chris Tierney. The 27-year-old is best utilized as a bottom-six forward but in recent years, he has been able to play higher in the lineup when called upon and produce, notching two 40-point seasons while scoring at a similar rate in 2019-20.
Whether it’s Tierney or someone else, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Guerin try to add some center help to give the Wild a lift heading into the playoffs. With the fewest games played in the Western Conference, it’s a move that Minnesota may want to make sooner rather than later to maximize the value of whoever they decide to bring in with a pretty heavy schedule on the horizon.
West Notes: Canucks, Forsberg, Oilers
While there has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding several of their veterans, Canucks president Jim Rutherford told NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger that their immediate goal is to get to the playoffs this season. Center J.T. Miller, winger Conor Garland, and goaltender Jaroslav Halak have all been mentioned as candidates to be moved but it would stand to reason that Rutherford’s preference is to give his current group more time together if he wants to see Vancouver get back into the postseason picture. The Canucks currently are seventh in the Pacific Division and are nine points out of the last divisional seed and six points behind Calgary for the final Wild Card seed although the Flames have four games in hand.
Elsewhere out West:
- The Predators plan to escalate talks on a possible contract extension for pending UFA winger Filip Forsberg, GM David Poile indicated in an appearance on ESPN 102.5 (audio link). The alternate captain is having the best season of his career with 38 points (including 24 goals) in 33 games and while he was speculated as a possible trade candidate earlier in the year, the fact that Nashville is soundly in a playoff spot (second in the Central) likely takes that option off the table. Forsberg has a $6MM salary and AAV and will be looking to beat that on the open market this summer.
- Postmedia’s Robert Tychkowski examines some of the storylines for the Oilers for the second half of the season and naturally, goaltending is among them. While he notes that Mike Smith will be able to return – a welcome addition – even that may not be enough to sustain their goaltending situation. Edmonton has 40 games remaining due to a lot of COVID-related postponements so they will need to rely on two goalies consistently, especially with Smith being 39 and just coming back from injury. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Ken Holland try to shore up the backup goalie position over the next few weeks though they will need to offload Mikko Koskinen’s contract to be able to afford any newcomers.
East Notes: Senators Centers, Forsberg, Tarasov
The Senators have had some tough luck when it comes to their center situation this season as several players have been injured. The latest was Josh Norris who is dealing with a shoulder injury. GM Pierre Dorion told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that the youngster is currently getting a second opinion but for the time being, the hope is that he’ll be able to return within the next three to four weeks. Norris leads all Ottawa players in goals with 18 in 36 games so far.
They may get Colin White back by then as well as Dorion indicated that they’re targeting February 26th as a target date for his return. White has missed the entire season so far due to a dislocated shoulder suffered back in October. The timeline for him to return was four to six months and it appears that, barring any setbacks, he’ll return in the middle of that window. As for Shane Pinto, the youngster is expected to be re-assessed in mid-March to determine if he’ll be able to suit up at all down the stretch for the Senators or if his season has come to an end.
More from the East:
- Also from Garrioch’s interview with Dorion, the GM wouldn’t commit to whether or not he plans to keep pending UFA goaltender Anton Forsberg past the trade deadline. The Senators have received interest in the 29-year-old but Dorion floated out the possibility that Ottawa keeps him past the deadline as a way to ensure that prospect Filip Gustavsson receives as much playing time as possible down the stretch with AHL Belleville to help prepare him to potentially serve as Ottawa’s backup goaltender next season.
- Blue Jackets goaltender Daniil Tarasov has resumed skating as he works his way back from a lower-body injury sustained more than a month ago, GM Jarmo Kekalainen told Mark Scheig of The Hockey Writers (Twitter link). The team hopes to know more about his timeline for a return in about a week. The 22-year-old has impressed in four appearances with Columbus this season with a .937 SV% and is the contender to be the full-time backup in 2022-23 so a chance to get in some more NHL work down the stretch would be ideal.
NHL Announces Several Key Events For 2022-23
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman took the podium today in Las Vegas to give an update on several topics, including some key events that will take place in 2022-23.
The 2023 NHL Winter Classic will feature the Boston Bruins at Fenway Park and will mark the fifth outdoor game for the team. The Bruins’ opponent has not yet been revealed, or the official date at this point. Fenway held the 2010 Winter Classic, where the Bruins defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1 in overtime.
Next year’s All-Star festivities will be held in Sunrise, Florida, and will be hosted by the Florida Panthers for the first time since 2003. The event will take place over February 3-4, 2023 with the All-Star Skills Competition on Friday, as it is this year. The Panthers, one of the league’s most exciting teams, will likely have several participants again next year.
The Stadium Series will head to Raleigh, North Carolina, where the Carolina Hurricanes will host an outdoor game at Carter-Finley Stadium, home of the NC State Wolfpack. This will be the very first outdoor game for the Hurricanes, though their opponent has also not been announced yet. The Stadium Series date has also not yet been officially set for 2023.
On the upcoming 2022 draft that is currently scheduled for Montreal, Bettman explained that if Quebec’s current COVID restrictions have not changed by that point, the league may decide to take it somewhere else. He hopes to have not only the team representatives and players in person, but also fans in the stands.
The league will also return to Europe next season in the Global Series, with games scheduled for Germany, Switzerland, Finland, and the Czech Republic, though details on those games were not revealed.
Snapshots: World Cup, Top Prospects, Memorial Cup
When the NHL first appeared headed to the 2022 Olympic Games, it signaled what would have been the first best-on-best action since the 2016 World Cup. Even that event came with the caveat of Team North America, a young-guns squad that kept some top talent off their respective countries. Connor McDavid, for instance, has still never worn a Canada sweater at a top-tier international event and hasn’t even taken part in the World Championship since 2018.
Perhaps there is reason to believe that is going to change, as Pierre LeBrun explained on TSN’s Insider Trading that the NHL and NHLPA have made progress on a potential 2024 World Cup of Hockey. There is also surprising support for it to be held partway through the 2023-24 season, something that had previously been fought against by the owners. This tournament would be held in addition to NHL participation in the 2026 Olympics in Italy, meaning hockey fans could be finally getting a chance to see best-on-best action in the coming years.
- Speaking of best-on-best, the CHL prospects game was originally scheduled to take place a few days ago has been rescheduled to March 23 in Kitchener, according to Corey Pronman of The Athletic. The event pits the best draft-eligible players in the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL against each other and provides a great scouting opportunity for NHL executives. The Ontario government is currently scheduled to lift all capacity restrictions on indoor events on March 14, which would potentially allow a full building for the showcase.
- Another marquee scouting event on the calendar is the Memorial Cup tournament, which hasn’t been held since 2019 because of the pandemic. This year’s event is scheduled to be held in Saint John, with the Sea Dogs automatically entered as the host team. Darren Dreger of TSN adds that because of all the postponements that have happened in the CHL this season, the Memorial Cup is going to be pushed into June.
Latest On Jack Eichel’s Recovery Timeline
The Vegas Golden Knights will be represented well at this weekend’s All-Star Game, with Jonathan Marchessault joining Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo at the hometown event. There’s another star player who has stolen the headlines today though, as Golden Knights head coach Pete DeBoer told reporters including David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that Jack Eichel could be cleared for contact after the break.
Eichel, recovering from artificial disk replacement surgery in November, was originally given an aggressive three-month timeline to return to action. When he was spotted on the ice just a few weeks after surgery it appeared as though it would be possible and now it seems his return is right around the corner.
Obviously, there are still the normal caveats that come with any player returning from injury, but Eichel’s Golden Knights debut will likely come with even more caution and patience because of his position as the first NHL player to receive this procedure. Chicago Blackhawks forward Tyler Johnson, who underwent the same surgery in December, is expected back in March according to Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times, which would be along the same three-month timetable.
DeBoer even went so far as to say that Eichel has been the best player on the ice at some recent practices, a dream scenario for the Golden Knights after taking a substantial risk in acquiring him earlier this season. The hope is that Eichel can return to full strength quickly and become a game-changing center at the top of the Vegas lineup, but that certainly is no guarantee after he missed so much time waiting for surgery. The 25-year-old’s last NHL game was played on March 7, 2021.
Morning Notes: Manson, Daws, Lorito
New Anaheim Ducks general manager has some big decisions to come in the next few weeks, as the team holds several players who would be top rental options at the trade deadline should they be put on the market. One of those names is Josh Manson, who has seemingly been linked to the Toronto Maple Leafs since the moment he entered the league. Well, if the Maple Leafs ever did want to pry Manson out of Anaheim, there’s another roadblock in the way. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet notes on the latest 32 Thoughts podcast that Toronto is one of the teams on Manson’s no-trade list.
The 30-year-old can block trades to 12 teams as part of his modified no-trade clause, which gives him at least a little bit of power over where he’ll end up if the Ducks do decide to move him in the coming weeks. Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm are the other big names for the Ducks, who sit third in the Pacific Division but have played a league-high 48 games already.
- The New Jersey Devils have recalled Nico Daws to the NHL roster today despite the All-Star break already being underway, sending Akira Schmid back to Utica in his place. While the Comets have a back-to-back starting tonight against the Laval Rocket and could be using it as a way to keep Schmid sharp, it will be interesting to see if Daws gets another look with the Devils down the stretch. The 21-year-old goaltender played twice in October, but with MacKenzie Blackwood‘s season still up in the air perhaps he’ll get another shot to try and show what he can do at the NHL level. Daws, a third-round pick in 2020, has a .917 save percentage in 17 games for Utica this season.
- Matt Lorito has signed a new one-year AHL contract with the Hartford Wolf Pack, returning to the AHL after spending this season in the KHL and SHL. The 31-year-old forward is an experienced hand in the minor leagues and won a Calder Cup in 2017 with the Grand Rapids Griffins. In his last AHL appearance, he had 11 points in 27 games for the San Diego Gulls.