Offseason Keys: Ottawa Senators
While the playoffs are now underway, many teams have already started their offseason planning. What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason? Our Offseason Keys series begins with a look at the Ottawa Senators.
After a rough 2017-18 season, the Senators were expected to struggle mightily in 2018-19. They received some criticism for opting to not retain their first-round pick for 2019 last summer, instead opting to keep their 2018 selection (fourth overall) which they used on winger Brady Tkachuk. While they finished at the bottom of the standings, their pick slid to fourth in the draft lottery this week so that decision isn’t under as much fire as it would have been had it remained at number one. GM Pierre Dorion blew up his roster as expected, selling off three core players at the trade deadline to add several draft picks and prospects. They’re very clearly in rebuilding mode but as it turns out, they may very well be making some moves that go against that premise this offseason.
Hire A Head Coach
The first thing that’s likely on Dorion’s to-do list is to pick a new head coach after Guy Boucher was dismissed shortly after the trade deadline. Veteran Marc Crawford took over on an interim basis down the stretch and while Ottawa’s point percentage didn’t jump too significantly (.417 compared to .390 under Boucher), the team looked to be playing with more jump, something that several veterans alluded to as well after being in a very rigid system previously.
Is that enough to justify keeping Crawford in that role? At 57 and having lost his job quickly the last two times as a head coach in Los Angeles and Dallas, he’s not necessarily going to be a long-term option for them. Does Dorion necessarily need to look for someone that he expects to be a fixture for many years to come though? If he feels they’re still a few years away from contention, could Crawford (or another veteran) serve as a short-term placeholder? That could potentially pave the way for someone like Troy Mann (AHL Belleville’s head coach) to stay where he is for a couple more years and work with more of their younger players before ascending to the NHL.
While this is ongoing, the team is also looking for someone to act as President of Hockey Operations. However, that search is not expected to affect the coaching situation; Dorion has the green light to make a hire even if the other role isn’t filled by then.
Defensive Decisions
With Thomas Chabot taking a huge step forward in his second NHL season and the acquisition of top prospect Erik Brannstrom as part of the deal that saw winger Mark Stone go to Vegas, the Senators have a strong foundation to build from. However, the supporting cast isn’t as strong and will need to be addressed in the near future.
The first key decision that will need to be made revolves around Cody Ceci. The pending restricted free agent carries a $4.3MM qualifying offer but it appears that the focus is on a long-term contract with the 25-year-old acknowledging that talks on that have already started. Ceci’s value has been a hotly-debated topic as while he plays a big role for Ottawa, he doesn’t rank particularly well when it comes to puck possession where he is consistently below average. Accordingly, some wonder if a long-term deal would be in Ottawa’s best interest. If a deal can’t be reached, then they’ll have to decide on his short-term future as he’ll only be a year away from UFA eligibility with the potential for a near-$5MM price tag in salary arbitration.
After that, there aren’t many options under contract that qualify as potential core players. Youngsters Christian Jaros, Christian Wolanin, Maxime Lajoie, and Andreas Englund have had opportunities with varying degrees of success but are likely best served as role players. Ottawa also has three other returning players with one year left on their respective contracts in Mark Borowiecki, Dylan DeMelo, and Ben Harpur. Again, all three aren’t top-four options on a contender so Dorion will need to decide if he wants to keep any of them around beyond next season. If not, he may turn to the trade market to free up a spot or two for some of those younger players.
Spend To The Floor
Rebuilding teams don’t typically chase after veterans and take on expensive contracts. However, the Senators may very well wind up doing that this summer. They have just over $45MM committed for next season per CapFriendly and aside from Ceci, none of their pending free agents are likely to sign a contract of significance. Center Colin White had a strong season but his track record likely isn’t strong enough for a long-term deal which makes a bridge contract more likely.
In other words, simply re-signing their own players isn’t going to get them close to the salary cap floor which is believed to be around the $60MM mark depending on how high the cap ceiling is set. And this is with veteran wingers Clarke MacArthur and Marian Gaborik remaining on the books in full even though their NHL careers are confirmed to be over and likely over, respectively, allowing insurance to cover a portion of their deals.
With that in mind, expect Ottawa to come up in discussions with teams that are looking to clear up cap space where the Senators can try to leverage another young asset or two in exchange for taking on an unwanted deal. If that falls through, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them discuss players on the back end of a front-loaded contract given their budgetary restrictions. If not, they could wind up being more active in free agency than it may seem where they’d target short-term contracts. No matter which way they go, expect some veterans to be heading to Ottawa in the coming months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mike Condon Expects To Be Ready For Training Camp
Senators goaltender Mike Condon is expected to be fully recovered and ready for training camp after being out since November after undergoing stem cell surgery on his hip, reports Postmedia’s Ken Warren. He cleared waivers early that month and played in AHL Belleville just once before seeking out various medical opinions which led to the surgery. Condon has one year left on his contract after this one with a $3MM salary and a $2.4MM cap hit. However, given the uncertainty surrounding his hip issues – it’s something he has battled throughout his career – it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to add another goalie to the mix. Anders Nilsson, a pending UFA, is a possibility to be brought back.
AHL Announces 2018-19 All-Rookie Team
The votes have been cast, and this year’s AHL All-Rookie Team has been released. The AHL rookie teams are always a mix of top draft picks and surprising prospects, and this year is no different. The team is as follows:
Goaltender: Shane Starrett, Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton Oilers)
Defense: Jake Bean, Charlotte Checkers (Carolina Hurricanes)
Defense: Mitch Reinke, San Antonio Rampage (St. Louis Blues)
Forward: Alex Barre-Boulet, Syracuse Crunch (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Forward: Drake Batherson, Belleville Senators (Ottawa Senators)
Forward: Tyler Benson, Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton Oilers)
Obviously winning this award doesn’t guarantee NHL success, but it is a strong sign for players who will experience a long and successful professional career. The past All-Rookie teams have included many eventual NHL All-Stars, something this group will aspire to be in the future.
Bean may be the most recognizable name of the group, having been the 13th overall pick in the 2016 draft. The Hurricanes defenseman made his NHL debut this season and recorded an incredible 44 points in 70 games for the Checkers. That put him eighth among all AHL defenders (one point ahead of Reinke) and should excite Carolina fans waiting for him to get a full-time chance at the highest level. Bean is another reason why so many have speculated about a Hurricanes trade this offseason as they seem to have too many defensemen ready to play increased roles.
Perhaps most notable though is Barre-Boulet, another undrafted forward that the Lightning snapped up out of the QMJHL. The 21-year old tied for the AHL lead in goals with 33 this season and led all rookie skaters with 64 points (one ahead of Benson). While there’s certainly no guarantee that Barre-Boulet ever becomes an NHL regular, he’s in the organization that won’t hesitate to give him a chance. The Lightning have a long history of success with undrafted forwards, most recently with Yanni Gourde who just posted his second consecutive 20+ goal season in the NHL.
Ottawa Senators Willing To Wait In Search For President
The Ottawa Senators were vindicated in a way last night when their 2019 first-round pick fell to fourth overall in the draft lottery. As the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks moved up the board, the decision to select Brady Tkachuk last year looked better and better. The Senators’ pick this year infamously belongs to the Colorado Avalanche, who will have to settle—if you can call it that—for the fourth selection in a year that they made the playoffs.
While GM Pierre Dorion and his front office staff can now put the original Matt Duchene trade behind them and prepare for their own draft, the organization is still looking for a new President of Hockey Operations to install alongside him and take over some of the direction of the franchise. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet touched on this search in his latest 31 Thoughts column, explaining that the Senators are “prepared to play the long game” and wait for the right candidate to appear. They basically have no choice, as Friedman also reports that the team has already contacted Ron Francis, Trevor Linden, Dean Lombardi, Joe Nieuwendyk and Steve Yzerman, only to have been turned down by each executive.
It makes sense to not rush into a decision like that, especially for a franchise that has operated without a person in that role for several years. While the Senators have been the butt of many jokes since coming a goal away from the Stanley Cup Final in 2017, they do now have several promising young players to build around and a history of draft success under Dorion’s guidance. The GM recently said “the worst is behind us” in reference to the complete tear down that has occurred in Ottawa over the past year, and he’s probably right—you can’t get much worse than trading away all the stars on your team amidst a pair of sub-30 win seasons and continual off-ice incidents.
There’s no clear timeline for when the Senators will install someone in the new position, but it’s easy to tell what kind of person they are going after for the role. All of the names listed in Friedman’s piece have a long history of success in the NHL either as a player or executive (or both). If they can eventually land a big fish like that to bring some stability to the organization, perhaps that “five-year run of unparalleled success” that owner Eugene Melnyk promised will actually come to fruition.
2019 NHL Draft Lottery Results
The ping pong balls have been drawn and the first 15 picks of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft are set. The league conducted its annual Draft Lottery tonight and the big winners were the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Chicago Blackhawks. The Devils, with an 11.5% chance of winning the No. 1 overall selection, did just that and astoundingly will have their pick of the class for the second time in three years. New Jersey won the draft lottery in 2017 and selected Nico Hischier and will have the chance to add another elite talent this year. This continues the almost comical lottery luck that has followed Taylor Hall in his career, moving from Edmonton to New Jersey. The Rangers held a 7.8% chance of moving up to the second overall pick and in this specific draft class were very lucky as well, as their consolation prize will be the second of two elite players at the top of the draft board. This will also be the first time in the modern draft era that New York selects within the first three picks. The Blackhawks may have a more difficult choice facing them at No. 3, but aren’t complaining after jumping from No. 12 into the top three, a move that had just a 3% chance of happening. Chicago has been a dynastic franchise this decade and will look to return to greatness by adding one of the draft’s top talents. Altogether, these three teams all moving up in this order was a result that had just a 0.027% chance of occurring.
Following the lottery results, the odds for which were set by the final league standings for non-playoff teams, the first half of the first round will play out as follows:
- New Jersey Devils
- New York Rangers
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Colorado Avalanche (from Ottawa Senators)
- Los Angeles Kings
- Detroit Red Wings
- Buffalo Sabres
- Edmonton Oilers
- Anaheim Ducks
- Vancouver Canucks
- Philadelphia Flyers
- Minnesota Wild
- Florida Panthers
- Arizona Coyotes
- Montreal Canadiens
The biggest loser of the night has to be the Colorado Avalanche, who fall out of the top three spots despite having a 49.4% chance of winning at least one of the those picks. This is the second time in just three years that Colorado has entered the lottery with the best odds at No. 1, only see three teams win the lottery and pass them up. In 2017, it was again the Devils who stole their top pick. After swindling the Ottawa Senators, it seemed the Avs were destined to cash in, but instead end up with the worst-case scenario. The Los Angeles Kings also have to be unhappy with the results, as the team slides from their second-to-last finish to the fifth overall pick. The Kings desperately could have used an injection of elite young talent next season and may not end up with an immediate contributor at No. 5. While they didn’t have the best of odds, the Vancouver Canucks are undoubtedly still disappointed in missing out on an opportunity to pair Jack Hughes with older brother Quinn Hughes, the team’s first-round pick in 2018 who already made a splash in his first few pro games down the stretch, or to at least make a top-three selection in front of the home crowd.
The younger Hughes, who was actually in attendance at tonight’s lottery event, has of course long been considered the likely top pick this spring and should start getting used to the idea of playing in New Jersey. The U.S. National Team center is considered a high-end play-maker already and turned down a scholarship to the University of Michigan earlier this season, knowing that he could be an impact player immediately in the NHL. As for the fit with the Devils, Hischier has already climbed atop the depth chart at center, but New Jersey will soon be able to boast amazing youth and depth down the middle with the addition of Hughes. Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko has pressured Hughes to be the top pick this year, but many still see him as a close second. The Rangers won’t mind, as Kakko is an extraordinary offensive talent who will score goals and throw his body around right away in the NHL. Kakko could become a major star in the New York market with his flashy goal-scoring ability and will certainly have the opportunity to play a major role right away. At third overall, there are many options for the Blackhawks, but the early expectation based on organizational depth would be a skilled forward like Vasili Podkolzin or Alex Turcotte. Chicago already has several promising young defensemen in the pipeline and can now add an elite forward to their growing young core of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, and Brendan Perlini. Now relegated to the No. 4 pick, the Avalanche will still undoubtedly get a strong player, just as they did two years ago with Cale Makar, if not an immediate contributor in the top remaining prospect on their board. A player like big Canadian center Dylan Cozens would fit in nicely with what Colorado is building.
Now that the order is set, the next step is the draft itself. Everyone may have their projections, but only the day of will reveal the actual futures of these teams and players. This year’s draft is set to take place in Vancouver beginning on June 21st, a day that New Jersey, New York, and Chicago are now much more excited for. Stay tuned.
Senators Notes: Coach, Chabot, Free Agency
Pierre Dorion took to the podium today in Ottawa to hold his year-end media availability, and answered questions about the direction of the franchise and evaluation of its core group. One of the biggest topics was the coaching vacancy, which is currently held by Marc Crawford on an interim basis. Dorion told reporters including Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that while Crawford will be interviewed for the job at some point, the team is also looking at a list of five to six other candidates.
The organization made it clear what they were looking for in a new head coach when they announced the firing of Guy Boucher, listing key attributes that would be needed. At the very top of that list was “teacher,” as the team must bring in someone who can develop their young players and get the best out of them quickly.
- Thomas Chabot will play for Team Canada at the upcoming IIHF World Championship, another step in his development path. The 22-year old defenseman may be the most important player on the Senators roster after putting together an outstanding season, and a chance to experience some more high-level hockey will only help his growth. Chabot recorded 55 points in 70 games this season and will be eligible for an extension on July 1. Dorion told reporters today that there had been preliminary talks and that they will try to sign him to a long-term deal.
- Garrioch also notes on Twitter that Dorion said he may try to add a veteran as free agency opens, something that wouldn’t be surprising given the salary cap situation the team is in. The Senators project to have just over $45MM committed to next season according to CapFriendly, though that covers just 14 roster players. The team will have to add a fair amount to reach the salary cap floor, though new deals for restricted free agents Cody Ceci, Colin White and Anthony Duclair should get them a good chunk of the way there. The team isn’t expecting to compete next season, but bringing in a veteran presence for the locker room in order to help the young players develop their professional habits is a route often taken by rebuilding clubs.
Senators Not Likely To Retain Magnus Paajarvi And Oscar Lindberg
The Senators are likely to not bring back winger Magnus Paajarvi and center Oscar Lindberg for next season, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. However, Ottawa appears to be inclined to issue a qualifying offer to winger Anthony Duclair and may attempt to keep winger Brian Gibbons who made a significant impact after being acquired late in the season.
Paajarvi never quite lived up to his draft billing as a tenth overall pick of the Oilers back in 2009. While he had a regular role this season, he wasn’t overly productive as he posted just 19 points in 80 games. With several younger forwards looking to make a push for a roster spot next season, it appears Paajarvi will be yielding his spot to one of them.
As for Lindberg, the trade deadline deal that saw him join the Senators didn’t do much to bolster his offensive game despite a boost in playing time. Between Ottawa and Vegas, he had 20 points in 55 games and as a 27-year-old old pivot, he’ll garner some interest on the open market in July.
Duclair came over from Columbus as part of the Ryan Dzingel deal just before the trade deadline. He signed with the Blue Jackets in a hope to revive his career but it didn’t happen. However, he showed some promising signs after the trade, collecting 14 points in 21 games, giving him 33 points on the season, the second-most of his career. That should be worth a $715K qualifying offer although he is eligible for salary arbitration.
Gibbons, meanwhile, was brought in for minor league defender Patrick Sieloff to fill a roster spot for the stretch run to allow the younger players to remain at AHL Belleville. After being invisible with Anaheim after putting up just five points in 44 games, he picked up 14 in 20 contests following the trade. Clearly, he showed he fits in with Ottawa so depending on the contract he’s looking for – he made $1MM this season – he could be a fit to stick around in a depth role.
Cody Ceci Hopes To Sign Long-Term Contract
The Ottawa Senators traded away almost all of their important free agents this season, sending Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel and Mark Stone out of town before having to deal with an offseason negotiation. Now the focus will turn from UFA to RFA, as several key players need new contracts before the 2019-20 season gets underway.
One of those names, Cody Ceci, is something of an enigma as the offseason begins. The 25-year old defenseman was awarded a $4.3MM contract in arbitration last summer, making him one of the most expensive players on the Senators rosters. In fact, Ceci’s salary is almost equal to the total of the other five defensemen—Mark Borowiecki, Dylan DeMelo, Thomas Chabot, Christian Jaros and Ben Harpur—that finished the year on the active roster. Another round in arbitration would likely give Ceci another raise, though it’s unclear where exactly that number would land.
It appears as though the defenseman wants to avoid that situation entirely, as he told reporters today including Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he has discussed a long-term deal with the Senators front office and wants to get something done before long. That could help them keep the cap hit down, and potentially secure a core player before unrestricted free agency hangs over their heads for another year. Though Ceci will only be 26 next summer, he will have already played seven seasons in the NHL and would qualify for UFA status.
The question is, whether Ceci should even be considered a core piece at all. Analytically-minded talent evaluators have pointed out for years that Ceci is deployed much more heavily than he should be, something that didn’t change even after Guy Boucher was relieved of his coaching duties partway through the season. In fact, Ceci logged more than 26 minutes in the final game of the season, and finished the year with an average of 22:34 per night. That huge amount of ice time resulted in him tying his career-high of 26 points, but also brought with it a -22 rating and a 44.1% CF%.
Still, there seems to be an appetite for Ceci in Ottawa and belief in him as a top-four defenseman. Perhaps with a better supporting cast and new coaching staff the team can coax the best out of him, especially given the extremely tough matchups that may have colored his statistics for the last few years. If a long-term deal can’t be achieved, the arbitration will only be able to award Ceci a one-year deal which would instantly make him a trade candidate on the rebuilding club.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Minor Transactions: 04/07/19
With the regular season ending Saturday, many teams, especially those who didn’t go to the playoffs, have decided to assign some of their younger players to the AHL to continue to get some playing time. Playoff teams could be adding to their rosters for the upcoming playoff run. Stay tuned to see transactions throughout the day.
- The Carolina Hurricanes announced they have recalled defenseman Jake Bean from the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. Bean, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, has had an impressive season in his first full season in the AHL and has been recalled several times by the Hurricanes despite having played in just two games. Bean has 13 goals and 31 assists this year with Charlotte. He will likely fill in for Calvin de Haan, who has already missed a week with an upper-body injury.
- The New Jersey Devils announced they have assigned several of their young players to join the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, including forwards Joey Anderson, Nathan Bastian, Michael McLeod and Brett Seney. Anderson has played in 34 games for New Jersey, having scored four goals and seven points. Bastian has spent most of his season with Binghamton where he has played 56 games this season, tallying 17 goals for them, while McLeod has appeared in 52 games with 31 points with Binghamton. Seney has spent more of his season with New Jersey, having scored five goals in 51 games for the NHL squad.
- CapFriendly is reporting that the Nashville Predators have recalled forward Zac Rinaldo from his conditioning stint with the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL. Rinaldo was assigned in Milwaukee on Apr. 2 despite undergoing what was considered to be season-ending shoulder surgery in February. He hasn’t appeared in a game since Jan. 1. He played three games for Milwaukee.
- The Boston Bruins announced they have assigned four players to return to the Providence Bruins of the AHL. The team will send forwards Trent Frederic, Anton Blidh and Zach Senyshyn as well as defenseman Jeremy Lauzon to their former team. Frederic played 15 games for Boston, but didn’t register a point. Blidh played in one game, while Senyshyn played in two games, registering one goal. Lauzon played in 16 games for Boston.
- Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports that the Columbus Blue Jackets have assigned defenseman Adam Clendening to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL. The 26-year-old has spent all but four games with Cleveland, putting up four goals and 36 points in 43 games.
- The Detroit Red Wings announced a flurry of moves today as they have assigned eight players to the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL, including forwards Christoffer Ehn, Martin Frk, Matt Puempel and Dominic Turgeon, defensemen Jake Chelios, Joe Hicketts, Filip Hronek and Dylan McIlrath. The team also assigned goaltender Kaden Fulcher to the ECHL’s Toledo Walleye.
- The New York Rangers have assigned several players to the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL, according to the AHL transactions page. The team has returned forward Vinni Lettieri and defensemen John Gilmour and Ryan Lindgren. The 24-year-old Lettieri played 27 games for the Rangers this season, but was dominant in Hartford, posting 23 goals and 46 points in 44 games. Gilmour has also dominated in Hartford, putting up 20 goals in 66 games, while Lindgren added needed physicality for Hartford in 63 games as well.
- The Philadelphia Flyers announced they have returned forward Corban Knight and defenseman Mark Friedman to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL. Knight, who was injured for much of the season, has only played in four games for Phantoms this season, putting up six points. Friedman, who made his NHL debut Saturday, has played 71 games for Lehigh Valley this season.
- The Washington Capitals announced they have assigned forward Nathan Walker to the Hershey Bears of the AHL. The 25-year-old Walker has appeared in three games for the Capitals, but will return to Hershey wher he played 54 games this season, posting 14 goals and 34 points.
- With an injury to goaltender Corey Crawford Friday, the Chicago Blackhawks recalled Kevin Lankinen from the Rockford IceHogs of the AHL. He wasn’t needed, however, and the team announced they have returned the young goaltender to the IceHogs. The 23-year-old fared well in his rookie season with Rockford, putting up a .911 save percentage and a 2.47 GAA in 18 appearances.
- The Ottawa Senators announced they have assigned defenseman Andreas Englund to the Belleville Senators of the AHL. Englund played three games for Ottawa this season.
- Anaheim Ducks defenseman Jaycob Megna cleared waivers Sunday and assigned to the San Diego Gulls of the AHL, according to CapFriendly. The 26-year-old Megna played 28 games for the Ducks while playing 35 for the Gulls.
Los Angeles Kings Will Not Bring Back Willie Desjardins
The Los Angeles Kings have informed interim coach Willie Desjardins that he will not be brought back. The team will look for a new head coach immediately. The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman also adds that the team is currently working on a coaching hire, but nothing is imminent.
“Today we thanked Willie Desjardins for his effort and dedication while serving as our interim head coach,” said Los Angeles Kings general Rob Blake, in a statement. “We wish Willie and his family nothing but the best going forward. The process for hiring our next head coach is underway and we look forward to conducting a thorough search for the right person to lead our team.”
Desjardins was brought in on Nov. 4 when the team fired head coach John Stevens after a miserable 4-8-1 start to the season. This came after the team reloaded their team with free agent Ilya Kovalchuk in hopes of challenging for another Pacific Division title. The team hired the veteran Desjardins as well as coaching hopeful Marco Sturm to stabilize the team in hopes the team could bounce back and compete. Instead, injuries and struggles from many of the team’s veterans led to the team struggling and the Kings ended up with a 31-42-9 overall record, good enough for the second-worst record in the NHL behind the Ottawa Senators.
Desjardins has put together an impressive resume, including plenty of international tournament and junior league success, but has also found himself in a number of tough NHL coaching positions over the years, including the aging Kings. He also coached a struggling Vancouver Canucks team for three seasons, compiling a 109-110-27 record.
Despite having a good chance to nab one of the top two prospects in the 2019 NHL draft in Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko (depending on their lottery luck), the team is still heavily encumbered by multiple long-term deals of players over 30 and will likely have to deal with a overburdened salary cap for a number of years in the future, which could make it difficult to truly compete in the next couple of years.
The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta was the first person to report this.