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Snapshots: Barzal, Timashov, Davidsson

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The New York Islanders locked up one of their key restricted free agents today when they agreed on a new two-year contract with Ryan Pulock, but still have one big item on their offseason to-do list. That’s a new contract for Mathew Barzal, who is a restricted free agent without arbitration rights and is in line for a huge raise.

Perhaps not as big as one might expect though. Pulock, speaking to reporters today including Andrew Gross of Newsday, explained that he and Barzal have spoken throughout the offseason and are trying to take deals that work for them and the Islanders, in the hopes that their current core can stay together. Still, it’s not like Pulock took a huge discount on his deal, which walks him straight to free agency at age-27 and carries a $5MM AAV. Barzal, who led the Islanders with 60 points during the regular season, is arguably the most important skater on the team and should command quite the salary.

Ottawa Senators Extend Christian Jaros

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Nov 4: The Senators have officially announced the Jaros contract, confirming the details reported yesterday. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a statement on the young defenseman:

Despite being limited by injury last season, Christian proved to be a reliable defensive defenceman. He’s a big body who’s rangy and who skates well. With his considerable professional experience, we’ll look for him to challenge for a roster spot in Ottawa when camp begins.

Nov 3: The Ottawa Senators have wrapped up their RFA class, coming to terms on a new contract with defenseman Christian Jaros. CapFriendly reports that Jaros has signed a one-year, two-way extension to avoid an arbitration hearing that had been scheduled for Saturday. The deal carries a $750K NHL salary and a $250K AHL salary.

Jaros, 24, may not have landed the one-way deal he might have hoped to land in arbitration, but accepted an offer that works out nicely for both sides. Coming off an entry-level deal that carried an $802K AAV including performance bonuses, Jaros takes a slight pay cut at the NHL level, but a major raise in the AHL. Whether he cracks the NHL roster or ends up spending the majority of the season in the AHL as he did last season, Jaros will walk away with a greater paycheck in 2020-21.

There is a path for Jaros to be a regular for the Senators this season. The club has only six defensemen signed to one-way deals, so there is at least one if not two positions open for their two-way players. Jaros has the most experience of that group, having played 76 NHL games, including 61 in 2018-19. With that said, top prospect Erik Brannstrom will certainly challenge for an NHL gig, while KHL import Artem Zub will also be expecting a chance at a spot in Ottawa.

Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen

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Much like fellow countryman and unsigned free agents Mikael Granlund, Sami Vatanen is getting next to no attention on the open market so far this off-season. The 29-year-old defenseman, ranked No. 14 overall in PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s, is an established two-way defenseman with nearly 200 points in his eight-year NHL career, but seemingly can’t find a suitable offer in the stagnant, flat cap market.

Unfortunately for Vatanen, recency bias looms large in the free agent market. Teams are more willing to offer significant contracts to players who have impressed in their most recent outings rather than looking at their overall career. This has sunk Granlund so far and the same can be said for Vatanen on multiple fronts. First, Vatanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was utterly forgettable. Traded at the deadline despite being injured, Vatanen did not see any regular season action with Carolina due to the suspension of the season. He was healthy enough to play once the postseason resumed, but played a limited role of just over 18 minutes per night in seven games (missing the final playoff game due to undisclosed reasons). Second, his past two seasons overall have not been stellar. Following four straight seasons of 67+ games played with the Anaheim Ducks, Vatanen’s health diminished over the past two years with the New Jersey Devils. He played in just 97 games total across the two campaigns and while his per-game stats both offensively and defensively held steady with his career average, his totals suffered.

Of course, the full picture of Vatanen’s career clearly displays why he ranked so high among PHR’s top free agents. He may be a couple of years removed from a relatively full season, but a healthy Vatanen in Anaheim was a perennial 30+ point player who also logged 100+ blocks and nearly 100 hits each year. Vatanen’s plus/minus was also superior before joining the struggling Devils. Even as part of what used to be a loaded Ducks defense corps, Vatanen earned his minutes and performed at a high level.

At full strength and given the opportunity, Vatanen can be a difference-maker for any team. A player who has logged 21 minutes or more per game in each of his six full NHL seasons , Vatanen knows how to carry the load of major minutes and special teams roles. He is also versatile, comfortable playing on his natural right side or on his off side. Over 82 games, Vatanen has 40-point upside and can be a disruptive force defensively as well. He has his demons as well; Vatanen is undersized, turnover prone, and can be a liability positionally in his own end. However, the total package is one of a bona fide top-four defenseman. Yet, at this point in the off-season he may not be paid as such.

Potential Suitors

Cap space aside, there are few teams in the NHL who couldn’t use a defenseman that can play both sides and contribute at both ends. Vatanen should cast a wide net of suitors, which makes the silence surrounding his name on the rumor mill all the more strange.

Taking into account the teams with ample salary cap space and need, there are a number of rebuilding clubs who could very likely be eyeing Vatanen. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have shown no hesitation to add free agents this off-season and could use a player like Vatanen, while the Los Angeles Kings have been very quiet but could greatly benefit from adding a player of Vatanen’s caliber to their young, inexperienced blue line. The Kings have a number of right-shot defenders, but Vatanen could still be very useful on the left side.

Of course, the problem with any of these teams is that Vatanen just escaped a rebuild in New Jersey and may want to look for a more competitive landing spot. While 2019-20 was a major disappointment for the San Jose Sharks, the team has the pieces to return to relevance this season. However, they could really use one more established veteran on the back end and Vatanen would fit the bill. There is a gap on the right side as well behind Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, but Vatanen might be the most dangerous playing on his off side with either of those stars.

Two other teams in need of defense but who might not be an obvious fit due to shot side are the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins. Both clubs are set on the right side; Boston has Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and a now-healthy Kevan Miller as well as NHL prospect depth and the Rangers have Jacob Trouba, Anthony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox. However, both teams have somewhat failed to address holes on the left side this off-season. Even on his off side, Vatanen would be a major upgrade to Brendan Smith and depth additions Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto in New York and to Matt Grzelcyk and John Moore in Boston. Both teams have considerable prospect depth on the left side, but as Stanley Cup contenders may not want to miss a chance at a player like Vatanen on a bargain deal.

Projected Contract

PHR originally expected Vatanen to sign a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $19.5MM. At this point, if Vatanen was going to land a long-term deal it would have happened by now. It seems teams want to make sure that he can stay healthy and play at his best for a full season before thinking about multiple years. Vatanen may not be restricted to just a one-year deal, as the impending Expansion Draft and its exposure requirements may make a two-year offer attractive to some, but anything beyond a two-year term seems unlikely.

As for the money, the posited $4.875MM AAV seems highly unlikely. That valuation was based on a long-term deal. Whether one year or two, Vatanen is now unfortunately facing a “show me” contract. With so many possible landing spots at or close to the salary cap ceiling, there isn’t much money to go around. If he wants to end up with a competitive club, Vatanen will be looking at a $3MM AAV or lower. If he chases the money, it still seems like the market is pointing toward a $3.5MM cap hit at best.

While Vatanen is a more well-rounded defenseman than Erik Gustafsson, the one-year, $3MM deal he signed with the Philadelphia Flyers feels like a decent expectation. If Vatanen lands a second year, perhaps he gets a total of $7MM. Either way, Vatanen is being paid for his floor when, if healthy, his ceiling is much higher. If whoever eventually signs Vatanen is lucky enough to get a healthy season (or two) out of him, he could be one of the better bargains of this free agent market.

Poll: Which Of The Eliminated Seven Will Return To The Postseason In 2021?

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When the NHL convinced the NHLPA to return in a bubble this summer, part of the agreement was for an expanded postseason. Just seven teams were actually eliminated, finishing their seasons in early March with no chance at the Stanley Cup.

For many of the players on the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres, it has already been almost eight months since they last played a competitive hockey game. While those squads may receive some sort of extended training camp, it’s going to be a battle to get back into the postseason in 2021.

Even though it’s tough, that doesn’t mean they won’t give it a try. Many of the seven teams have made major additions this offseason, with some even completing sweeping changes to their roster.

The Ducks, who finished 29-33-9 in 2019-20, had almost no financial flexibility to do anything on the free agent market. Kevin Shattenkirk and Derek Grant were their UFA additions, both coming on three-year deals. They do however have a wave of young talent working its way up the depth chart, which could at any point propel them to success. The same could be said about the Kings, who spent even less in free agency. Los Angeles is just at the start of their rebuild and will hope that top pick Quinton Byfield can make an NHL impact quickly.

The Sharks were one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, winning just 29 of their 70 games. This was a team that had just gone to the Western Conference Finals in 2019 and was still loaded with household names like Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Logan Couture. Goaltending was a huge part of the problem for the Sharks, but bringing in Devan Dubnyk certainly doesn’t guarantee an improvement.

New Jersey had plenty of hype after landing the first-overall pick in 2019 and surrounding him with expensive players like Nikita Gusev and P.K. Subban. When Hughes didn’t immediately set the league on fire, the team couldn’t really compete in a tough Metropolitan Division. This offseason the Devils have landed a proven middle-six winger in Andreas Johnsson, a capable defenseman in Ryan Murray, and a Stanley Cup champion in Corey Crawford to help them get over the hump. Development from Hughes is likely the most important factor here.

The same could be said about the Senators, who have taken an extremely young roster and added veteran pieces all over the ice. Evgenii Dadonov and Matt Murray highlight the additions, though the draft was really where the Senators believe their offseason earned its stripes. It’ll be tough for Ottawa this year, but they’re obviously on the track towards postseason contention.

Detroit is only really a year into their full rebuild and has stripped their roster of any long-term contracts. Sure, they added veterans like Vladislav Namestnikov and Bobby Ryan in free agency, but those both seem more like trade chips than core pieces.

In Buffalo, it’s playoffs-or-bust at this point. The team signed free agent superstar Taylor Hall to a one-year deal, brought Eric Staal away from his home in Minnesota, and added depth up front with pieces like Cody Eakin. New GM Kevyn Adams isn’t focused on a rebuild, he’s focused on getting the Sabres back to for the first time in a decade.

But who actually has the best chance at making the postseason? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments!

Which team is most likely to make the playoffs in 2021?
Buffalo Sabres 43.05% (933 votes)
San Jose Sharks 14.72% (319 votes)
New Jersey Devils 11.68% (253 votes)
Ottawa Senators 11.03% (239 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.14% (198 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 5.35% (116 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 5.03% (109 votes)
Total Votes: 2,167

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Ottawa Senators To Sign Alex Galchenyuk

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12:00pm: The Senators have officially announced the contract, signing Galchenyuk to a one-year, $1.05MM contract for the 2020-21 season. Dorion released a statement on the deal:

Alex’s signing represents another good addition for us at forward. He’s versatile in that he can play both left wing and centre. He’s gifted offensively, has been a solid power-play contributor and is a proven goal scorer in this league.

11:07am: The Ottawa Senators are going to add some more offensive firepower to the lineup, as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports they are close to signing unrestricted free agent Alex Galchenyuk. Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia tweets that the contract is expected to carry a salary of $1.05MM.

Galchenyuk, 26, is a long way from the 30-goal campaign he had in 2015-16 with the Montreal Canadiens. Since then he’s been included in separate trades for Max Domi, Phil Kessel, and Jason Zucker, bouncing from Montreal to Arizona, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. He was a disaster for the Penguins, scoring just five goals and 17 points in 45 games despite getting an early opportunity beside Evgeni Malkin, and was anything but a dominant presence for the Wild, registering zero points in their four qualification round games.

Still, he’s 26 and was a third-overall pick eight years ago. There is incredible skill in Galchenyuk’s hands and though he has been a relative disappointment given his draft position, he still does have 135 goals and 320 points in 549 regular season games. That’s good enough for second among all players drafted in 2012, behind only Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (166 goals, 353 points).

In Ottawa, he can slide into a lineup that suddenly looks a lot deeper than expected. The Senators have not only added Galchenyuk, but also Evgenii Dadonov and Austin Watson to a forward group that will also likely include third-overall pick Tim Stuetzle. On defense they’ve added Josh Brown and Erik Gudbranson while solidifying the crease with Matt Murray. It’s an impressive offseason for GM Pierre Dorion, who has been adamant that the Senators will be competitive sooner than many believe.

The question now becomes where exactly Galchenyuk plays, given he is likely more effective as a center (even if there are still legitimate questions about his defensive ability). The team already has Chris Tierney, Colin White, Josh Norris, and Logan Brown as potential pivots, meaning someone—perhaps Galchenyuk—will have to move to the wing.

Still, for just over a million dollars, this is an almost risk-free move for Dorion. At worst, Galchenyuk struggles and the team doesn’t retain him next season. At best, he rediscovers his previous 30-goal potential and becomes a core piece in the rebuild. Most likely? Galchenyuk gets strong powerplay time and becomes a trade chip for the Senators at the deadline to add even more assets to the cupboard.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators Sign Filip Chlapik

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The Ottawa Senators have taken care of a little more business, signing Filip Chlapik to a new contract. The one-year, two-way deal will pay him $735K at the NHL level. Senators GM Pierre Dorion had this to say on his young forward:

Filip’s a competitive player who works hard. He has applied himself to becoming an important player for us in Belleville. We’re confident that work ethic will be equally as effective for him as he strives to become the same type of player in Ottawa.

Chlapik, 23, still hasn’t established himself as a full-time NHL option, but did play 31 games with Ottawa this season. The 48th overall pick in 2015, he has 11 points in 56 career games. As Dorion points out, he has become a core piece of the Belleville lineup and could very well make the jump in the coming years.

While he waited for a new deal with Ottawa, Chlapik had signed on to play with HC Sparta Praha in the Czech professional league. Unfortunately, he has suited up just three times because of the COVID-19 situation overseas, which has put that league on pause. He has one goal in those three games.

Chlapik’s new contract leaves only Christian Jaros left for the Senators to sign, with an arbitration hearing on the books for November 7.

Chris Tierney To Re-Sign With Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators have come to another relatively hefty extension for a veteran player, agreeing with Chris Tierney on a two-year contract according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia. The deal will carry an average annual value of $3.5MM, with Tierney earning $2.8MM in 2020-21 and $4.2MM in 2021-22. The 26-year-old forward was a restricted free agent with an arbitration hearing scheduled for November 8. That hearing will no longer be required.

While many players are able to post career-highs when they move from a good team to a bad one and are given more responsibility, since arriving in Ottawa, Tierney still hasn’t been able to match the 17 goals he recorded during his final season in San Jose. He did post a career-best 48 points in 2018-19, but it came with just nine goals. This season he increased that number to 11, but the points dropped down to 37 in the shortened season.

Averaging more than 17 minutes a game, Tierney has become a core piece of the Senators forward group that trailed only Connor Brown, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Brady Tkachuk in ice time. While he likely should settle into a lesser role when Ottawa wants to compete, for now, he can continue to help the youngsters find their game while providing solid middle-six production.

The question that comes with almost every Senators signing these days is whether or not Tierney will actually finish this two-year deal in Ottawa. The contract is heavily back-loaded, allowing the team to move a good chunk of the salary owed if they decide to flip him at some point. With several top prospects pushing up the lineup and even more on the way, Tierney’s spot won’t be there forever. With no trade protection, he will be a valuable asset at the deadline if the team decides to move on.

Atlantic Notes: Sabres, Stuetzle, Dermott

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With quite a few changes having been made to the Buffalo Sabres roster this offseason, including the additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal into their top six, Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski writes that the team is done upgrading their roster, but a possibility of a trade still exists as the team is overloaded on defense.

The scribe writes that the Sabres could look to find a taker for either Colin Miller or Brandon Montour for a draft pick, which would open up a spot for 23-year-old William Borgen, a highly touted St. Cloud State player who has played just four NHL games so far after two years in the AHL.

  • Ottawa Senators newly-drafted forward Tim Stuetzle might have trouble joining the Senators for the upcoming 2020-21 due to his contract with Alder Manheim in Germany. The European rule is that a player with a valid cannot sign an NHL contract after Aug. 15. While that rule doesn’t make as much sense considering the draft was on Oct. 6, the rule still applies, according to deputy commissioner Bill Daly. The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian (subscription required) writes that Mannheim’s general manager Jan-Axel Alavaara said the only way Stuetzle could play for the Senators this season is if Mannheim releases him from his contract, which would then freely allow the 18-year-old to join Ottawa when the 2020-21 season begins. That would also require the German Federation to sign off on it. Salvian notes that no decision has been made on whether Mannheim would allow Stuetzle out of his contract, but the third-overall pick is still recovering from a fractured hand that he suffered on Oct. 13 and was given a six to eight-week recovery time. Of course, neither the DEL or the NHL have started their seasons with the DEL season having been postponed twice already with a current timetable of a December return. Regardless, expect general manager Pierre Dorion to continue to negotiate with Mannheim.
  • After being forced to accept a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs, defenseman Travis Dermott will have to bet on himself to benefit from a better deal next season. The blueliner will have to fight for a spot on the Maple Leafs’ blueline, according to Jonas Siegel (subscription required), who adds that Dermott will be fighting for playing time with Justin Holl, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen and Rasmus Sandin for the final three spots on Toronto’s defense and easily could be forced to play on his off-hand in order to earn minutes.

Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund

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There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.

Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?

It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.

Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.

In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.

Potential Suitors

Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.

The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.

Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.

By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.

If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.

While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.

Senators Eyeing More Forward Help

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The Senators have already added to their forward group this offseason with the signing of Evgenii Dadonov and the acquisition of Austin Watson but they may not be done adding up front just yet.  Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the belief is that Ottawa may be interested in adding one more forward to the mix.

From a roster composition standpoint, the Sens have several players on entry-level contracts that are likely to break camp with the team so adding another veteran wouldn’t put them in a roster crunch of any kind.  Adding another veteran would certainly insulate them against injuries and would allow them to shuffle some of those youngsters back and forth between them and AHL Belleville which is something they did last season.

Cap space won’t be an issue either as even after they re-sign arbitration-eligible center Chris Tierney, they’ll have plenty of it but there are questions as to how much they’ll be willing to spend next season, especially since they’re not quite ready to emerge from their rebuild just yet.  As things stand, they have a little less than $18MM in room, per CapFriendly.

It’s unclear what type of forward they’d have a preference for acquiring though as they have needs basically in every area.  But with their young core set to get more expensive over the next few years as entry-level deals expire, adding someone on a long-term deal could have repercussions down the road.  With that in mind, adding someone with a year or two left would probably be more beneficial for Ottawa.

There are quite a few teams looking to free up some cap room and if GM Pierre Dorion is indeed willing to add another forward, this could be an opportunity to bring someone in for a low price or if they’re open to taking on a pricier contract, perhaps add some more draft pick and/or prospect capital as well.

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