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Lightning Sign Dan Girardi

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have added to their defensive corps on the first day of free agency, signing recently bought out New York Rangers defenseman Dan Girardi to a two-year, $6MM deal, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Girardi, who was scheduled to make $4MM with the Rangers this season, will now make $3MM yearly from the Lightning plus $1.1MM annually from his buyout, which puts him over what he would have made in New York.

Girardi is a polarizing player in the NHL. Many, including plenty of Rangers fans, felt that he was over-rated and overpaid in New York and is incapable of being a top-four defenseman in the NHL any more. Others rave about Girardi’s character and leadership and feel that he is a valuable asset. Regardless, Girardi will likely play a bottom-pair role for Tampa, but will be well-compensated to do so. The Lightning simply hope they are not the newest team to overpay Girardi and can instead get the most out of the veteran.

Girardi is coming off a career-low 15 points in 2016-17 and saw a drop off in hits and blocked shots as well. However, at one point Girardi was a guaranteed 20-30 point player who excelled at the defensive aspects of the game. The only question is which version of Girardi did the Lightning just commit to?

Rangers Expected To Sign Ondrej Pavelec To One-Year Deal

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TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported earlier this morning that Ondrej Pavelec was on his way to New York. The Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe tweets that the deal is a one-year, $1.3MM agreement. The deal was anticipated, as it was reported yesterday that the Rangers were in discussions with the netminder.

Pavelec will now be the backup to Henrik Lundqvist, following the departure of Antti Raanta. Last season, Pavelec only saw eight games with Winnipeg and posted a 4-4 record with a .888 save percentage.

Free Agency Rumor Round-Up

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Free agency is set to open in mere hours, but there are already plenty of rumors out there about deals that will become official at noon ET. Here are all of the deals expected to be made official this afternoon with the link to the original PHR article or recent report:

Anaheim Ducks expected to sign G Ryan Miller (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)

Boston Bruins expected to sign LW Kenny Agostino

Buffalo Sabres expected to sign G Chad Johnson

Chicago Blackhawks expected to sign RW Patrick Sharp

Colorado Avalanche expected to sign G Jonathan Bernier

Dallas Stars expected to sign C Martin Hanzal (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)

Detroit Red Wings expected to sign D Trevor Daley

Florida Panthers expected to sign RW Evgeni Dadonov

Florida Panthers expected to sign C Micheal Haley

Montreal Canadiens expected to sign D Karl Alzner

New York Rangers expected to sign G Ondrej Pavelec

Philadelphia Flyers expected to sign G Brian Elliott

Tampa Bay Lightning expected to sign D Dan Girardi

Vancouver Canucks expected to sign D Michael Del Zotto

Vancouver Canucks expected to sign G Anders Nilsson

Vancouver Canucks expected to sign C Sam Gagner (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)

Winnipeg Jets expected to sign G Steve Mason (per TSN’s Bob McKenzie)

New York Rangers In Discussions With Ondrej Pavelec

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When the New York Rangers traded Antti Raanta to the Arizona Coyotes, it was clear they’d have to enter the goaltending market in free agency. Though Magnus Hellberg played well in his very short sample with the team this year, he never seemed like a legitimate backup option for a team with an aging goaltender and eyes on a deep playoff run. He since signed in the KHL after becoming a Group VI free agent. Instead, they were likely to get a more veteran name who could step in and play a few games should Henrik Lundqvist miss any time.

Darren Dreger of TSN is now reporting that the team is in ongoing discussions with Ondrej Pavelec, the former Winnipeg Jets goaltender who spent most of the 2016-17 season in the minor leagues after clearing waivers. Pavelec does fill the experience portion of the backup requirement, but it’s been over a year now since he showed he was a capable netminder in the NHL. Perhaps at 29 the Rangers believe he can have a bounce-back season, or they think he’ll come at a relatively cheap price and invest the savings at a different position.

In eight NHL contests last year, Pavelec recorded an .888 save percentage. Beyond that his 2015-16 numbers weren’t much better, registering a .904 in 33 contests. Even in the AHL last year, where NHL backups usually perform quite well he was just average, posting a .917 save percentage and going just 8-7-2. It’s not certain that he’d struggle in the NHL again, especially behind a 100-point team like the Rangers but he’s far from the safest option on the open market.

Pavelec didn’t make it into our Top 50 Free Agents, a list that included six goaltenders at the time. From that group, Mike Condon has already re-signed with Ottawa, and both Brian Elliott and Anders Nilsson look to have already agreed to new homes. Even Keith Kinkaid, who just missed out on the list and may have placed ahead of Pavelec was retained by the New Jersey Devils to back up Cory Schneider.

East Notes: Smith, Daley, Kunitz

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When it came down to it, Brendan Smith felt no one else could beat what the Rangers offered. NHL.com’s Dan Rosen writes that the 28-year-old defenseman felt the Rangers provided the best opportunity after hearing other teams out:

“I think I could be a big part of that team,” Smith said. “I kind of like the niche that the Rangers have. They’re a little bit younger. I noticed that we are ahead of what I expected the Rangers to be with all these young guys.”

Smith was acquired from the Detroit Red Wings for a 2018 second round pick and a 2017 third round pick, but it wasn’t as if the Rangers didn’t benefit, either. Smith shifted into a more prominent role with the Blueshirts, whereas in Detroit, he found himself a healthy scratch or in the opinion of some fans, “misused” in terms of deployment. In nearly half as many games, Smith nearly matched his production with Detroit and saw a 90 second jump in average ice time. Smith alluded to the trade being a better fit and the stats show, especially after an impressive performance in the playoffs.

  • The Red Wings, meanwhile, appear to be closing in on signing Trevor Daley to a contract. Surprisingly, Daley seems to have left the Pens out, which is odd since he nabbed two Stanley Cups in as many years with the Penguins. The Score’s Josh Gold-Smith writes that the Bruins and Red Wings were the front runners for Daley’s services while Elliott Friedman tweeted that the Red Wings were more than likely to sign him. Sean Tierney of the Athletic analyzed some of the defensemen Detroit should target and Daley, though on the list, doesn’t measure up statistically with some of the other options out there. Tierney used an advanced metric, Goals Above Replacement, which measures a “single-measure stat that sums up the contributions a player makes during the course of a game.” Measured that way, Daley doesn’t appear to be one of the more attractive options. But should the deal come at an affordable price, it could be something that bolsters the Red Wings blueline, or help the Red Wings out at the trade deadline should they want to acquire more draft picks.
  • Chris Kunitz might find himself on the outs with the Penguins writes Fanrag’s Dave Holcomb. With a glut of forwards and specifically wings, Kunitz might find himself on the outside looking in with so many younger players filling the roster. Holcomb gauges that after the Pens bring back Matt Cullen and Nick Bonino, Kunitz may have a better idea of if he’ll be back.

Trevor Daley, Dan Girardi Close To New Deals

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According to the venerable Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, two deals that seem close as we head into free agency are Trevor Daley heading to the Detroit Red Wings and Dan Girardi heading the Tampa Bay Lightning. While Friedman mentions other potential connections, these are the two he seems surest of, even indicating they could potentially already be done. While Daley can’t sign until July 1st, Girardi is technically already a free agent after being bought out by the New York Rangers.

The pair ranked 23rd and 37th on our top 50 free agent list, expecting Daley to receive an extra year on the open market. Whether the deals are done or not, it shows that there has been fierce interest for both depth defensemen. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette chimes in, saying that Daley isn’t done but has narrowed his field to two or three teams (with Pittsburgh not one of them). Despite not being allowed to talk contract details in their pre-July 1st meetings, it’s assumed that basic structures are agreed upon since deals come fast and furious as soon as free agency period commences.

Daley and Girardi may not be the most exciting additions, but they could both provide a nice value for what should be relatively little money. Both players are heading into the twilight of their careers, and as we saw with Girardi’s buyout are too risky to commit big money or term to. It will be interesting to see if either one can lock down a third season, or will have to settle for one or two year deals at age 33.

Brendan Smith Signs With New York Rangers

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After hearing earlier today that Brendan Smith may have a bigger offer from New York than anyone else, the two sides have agreed to terms and will bring back the defender on a long-term contract. The deal is expected to be for four years with an average annual value of $4.35. It also includes some sort of no-trade clause for all four seasons. In our free agent rankings where Smith placed 12th, we had him signing a four-year deal worth $15MM, but he is clearly set to eclipse that number. Brendan Smith

Smith fit in quite well with the Rangers after being acquired at the trade deadline from the Detroit Red Wings, logging over 20 minutes a night for them down the stretch and being a big part of their playoff run. The left-handed defenseman has experience playing both sides, and could be asked to play his off-side now that Dan Girardi has been bought out. The Rangers have Ryan McDonagh and Brady Skjei locked in on the left side, and though newcomers Neal Pionk and Anthony DeAngelo are both right-handed, neither may be ready to start the year with the club.

It’s that versatility that made Smith so valuable on the open market, and has provided what may seem like a slightly overpriced contract. He had been playing on a $2.75MM cap hit, but at 28 was looking for a solid long-term deal. With the new cap hit, the Rangers will be left with between $15-16MM for now, though many things could still be done to impact that. The team still needs to sign restricted free agents Mika Zibanejad and Jesper Fast to new contract, while replacing Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta who they traded to the Arizona Coyotes.

This contract is not without risk, as Smith scored just nine points last season and isn’t very offensively gifted. He’ll never be a big point producer even if he plays with McDonagh, but what he can do is defend and do it well. He’s reliable in his own end and is willing to engage physically when the time is right (though that isn’t a huge part of his game). Mostly, he can do a little bit of everything and not hurt you with any bad mistakes. That’s valuable to any team, and apparently worth a hefty sum on the open market.

Bob McKenzie of TSN was first to report the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers Interested In Brendan Smith

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  • Ansar Khan of MLive reports that the Detroit Red Wings were hoping to get Brendan Smith back in town under a respectable three-year, $10.5MM contract but that he may have other offers. Khan points to Smith’s current team the New York Rangers and a potential $4MM AAV. Smith ranked #12 on our free agent list, in which we predicted a four-year, $15MM ($3.75MM AAV) contract. Smith will certainly expect multiple offers from around the league on July 1st, as his versatility makes him an interesting option for many teams.

CHL 2017 Import Draft Results

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The CHL is holding its annual import draft today, where teams from across the Canadian junior leagues get to select the rights to players around the world. Often these are recently drafted prospects, or those seen to have good chances at next year’s draft. Being selected has no guarantee that the player will actually ever suit up for the team, as Klim Kostin (the 31st-overall pick in this year’s NHL entry draft) has made very clear. Kostin was selected first-overall in the import draft last year, but has said that he has no intention of ever playing for the Kootenay Ice, instead hoping to play in the AHL or NHL next season.

Sometimes though, you can get an immense talent. Nico Hischier was selected sixth-overall by Halifax last season, and quickly rose to the first-overall pick in the 2017 Entry Draft. Mikhail Sergachev was also selected sixth in the 2015 draft before eventually being the return for Jonathan Drouin this summer. To be sure, there will be a name or two out of this year’s draft to make a huge impact in the NHL. Each team can only carry two import players on the roster, meaning many will pass on the opportunity to select another one. The results are below (including the NHL team that drafted them this weekend):

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Girardi Drawing Interest After Buy-Out

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Although he was just bought out by the New York Rangers due to meager performance relative to his pay, multiple NHL teams have shown interest in signing the 33 year-old. Detroit, who is supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, seem compelled to inquire, according to The Athletic’s Craig Custance. The Grand Rapids Griffins championship run will provide an infusion of youth who have won at the professional level, and yet the defense remains a primary concern for GM Ken Holland. Missing the playoffs for multiple seasons may not be palatable to an organization so accustomed to success. It’s uncertain as to where Girardi would slot if he did sign in Detroit. The Wings have 7 defenseman on the roster (when you include RFA Xavier Ouellet), and 4 of those have no-trade clauses.

Also heavily rumored are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elliotte Friedman stated that the team reached out to the defender, and that it is unknown how that conversation went. Newsday’s Steve Zipay made the connection to current Bolt Ryan Callahan, himself an ex-New York Ranger, with whom Girardi has close ties. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman does seem to like the old-school defensemen, and the team does have only 4 blueliners under contract while they negotiate terms with Slater Koekkoek. The team was already linked to Kevin Shattenkirk via the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, and players such Brendan Smith and Karl Alzner could find a decent fit on a second pairing. There are certainly more marquee names available out there, but perhaps the prices will become too steep for Yzerman’s liking. Girardi would almost certainly come cheap, and Tampa seems destined to make a push in the Atlantic after a down season – so it’s not an undesirable location.

The market that has surfaced for Girardi is quite remarkable considering his circumstances. Girardi has had three consecutive poor possession seasons which crescendo-ed this year with an 8th-worst Corsi 5-0n-5 finish among all defenders. In a league which is heading in the direction of deeper, more encompassing analytics, Girardi seems to buck every trend out there. He is probably still an NHL defender, but his immobile brand of defense is losing effectiveness fast and his shot-blocking may be beginning to take a toll on his body. His skating is sub-par and his offensive capabilities are very limited. He’s a good penalty killer, but at even strength is generally a net-negative regardless of how sheltered his minutes are. Still, as a veteran on a cheap contract, he might be worth a flier to regain form on a short-term deal. With such a poor UFA offering, it seems he has some value left and should be able to find a new contract with little pain.

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