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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders 23.09% (263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 18.88% (215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.66% (110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 8.96% (102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.73% (88 votes)
Calgary Flames 6.41% (73 votes)
New Jersey Devils 5.62% (64 votes)
New York Rangers 4.39% (50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 3.69% (42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 3.69% (42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 2.19% (25 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.58% (18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 1.49% (17 votes)
Nashville Predators 1.23% (14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.79% (9 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.61% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139

[mobile users click here to vote]

Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

Devils Activate Nico Hischier, Name Him Team Captain

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It’s a big day for Devils center Nico Hischier.  First, he was cleared to come off the CPRA list (making him the final New Jersey player to be removed) but he was also named team captain in advance of today’s game against Buffalo.  He becomes the 12th captain in franchise history.

It has been a trying season for 22-year-old in that he hasn’t been able to play yet.  Hischier suffered a leg injury back in December while training and before he could be cleared to return, he was one of many New Jersey players to wind up on the CPRA list.  Even though he had recovered from the leg injury during that stint, he had to clear COVID protocol before he could be activated.  That’s hardly what he was hoping to give New Jersey in the first season of a seven-year, $50.5MM contract signed back in October of 2019.

He is a welcome addition to a New Jersey lineup that sits in the middle of the pack in offense this season at 2.82 goals per game heading into play today.  Hischier isn’t a high-end goal scorer – he only reached 20 goals in his rookie season – but is their best pure playmaker which should give them a boost offensively as the Devils look to hang around the playoff race in the very tight East Division.  As a result of their extended break in the schedule, he’ll wind up only missing 11 games despite being out for nearly six weeks.

Hischier becomes the youngest active captain in the league, taking that mark from Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (24).  He’s also the third ever captain from Switzerland, joining Roman Josi who is Nashville’s captain as well as Mark Streit who held the title for the Islanders in 2011-12 and 2012-13.  There are now just two teams in the league without a captain, the Rangers and Senators.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Matt Tennyson Clears Waivers

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Saturday: Tennyson has cleared waivers, Johnston reports. New Jersey quickly moved him to the taxi squad, while assigning Nicholas Merkley to the AHL.

Friday: Off the COVID Protocol and onto the wire, Matt Tennyson has been placed on waivers by the New Jersey Devils according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The team also put Eric Comrie and Connor Carrick there in recent days, losing the former back to his old team. Tennyson already did clear earlier in the season, but needed to go through the process again if the Devils wanted to assign him to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

With Sami Vatanen, Dmitry Kulikov, and Will Butcher all assuming their spots on the active roster, it was always going to be a tough squeeze for Tennyson. The 30-year-old served as a filler through ten games this season but was regularly caved in possession-wise, just as he has been for most of his career. Undrafted, Tennyson used his three years at Western Michigan University to build up his profile before hitting the professional ranks. He’s turned in quite a nice little career, spending 154 games in an NHL lineup.

Still, it seems unlikely that he will be claimed (if for no other reason than waiver claims are extremely rare these days.) More likely is he clears tomorrow and returns to the practice squad, where he can continue to serve as injury insurance for the Devils. Even there he might not be the first up, as Carrick cleared and could be used whenever the team needs a body.

Winnipeg Jets Claim Eric Comrie

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The Winnipeg Jets just won’t let Eric Comrie go. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the team has claimed the goaltender off waivers once again, bringing him back to the organization where he has played most of his career. Comrie ended up playing just one game with the New Jersey Devils after being claimed by them earlier this season, posting a .909 save percentage in the process.

If the Jets were the only team to put in a claim, they can now move Comrie directly to the taxi squad or minor leagues. If not, he’ll have to stay on the active roster until he does clear (Update: The Jets have indeed assigned him to the taxi squad). Of course, in either case, Comrie will have to face a quarantine as he returns to Canada. It’s not the first time he’s dealt with this merry-go-round waiver situation, as he was claimed, traded, and then claimed again last season. All the while he has only played in nine career NHL games, but the 25-year-old continues to post strong numbers at the minor league level and obviously has interest from around the NHL.

For Winnipeg, the question now becomes whether the waive a different goaltender. The team is currently carrying three on the active roster, with Connor Hellebuyck backed up by both Laurent Brossoit and Anton Forsberg. Forsberg was a waiver claim himself after the Jets lost Comrie, meaning he might end up back on the wire in the coming days.

Eric Comrie, Connor Carrick Placed On Waivers

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Feb 18: Though Comrie was claimed back by the Jets, Carrick cleared and can now be reassigned to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

Feb 17: According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the New Jersey Devils have placed both Eric Comrie and Connor Carrick on waivers, now that they are back in action and most of their players are off the COVID Protocol list.

Comrie, 25, played just a single game for the Devils after they claimed him from the Winnipeg Jets earlier this season. Though frustrating, this isn’t a new experience for the goaltender. Last season, Comrie was put on waivers by the Jets, claimed by the Arizona Coyotes, traded to the Detroit Red Wings, then claimed back by the Jets when he ended up on waivers again. This year looks like it might be a similar merry-go-round, as several teams still need some depth goaltending and could claim him.

Carrick meanwhile will likely go unclaimed as every other skater has this season, though that doesn’t mean he can’t play at the NHL level. The 26-year-old defenseman has 231 career games under his belt but has suited up just once this season.

One of the biggest reasons Carrick would slip through is his contract, which carries a $1.5MM cap hit this season. He’s scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to secure that kind of salary for 2021-22.

New Jersey Devils Announce Hockey Operations Changes

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The New Jersey Devils have announced several new roles and promotions among their hockey operations staff, starting with anointing a Director, Goaltending Development. Scott Clemmensen will serve in that role for the Devils, overseeing all goaltending development alongside Martin Brodeur, Brian Eklund, and Dave Rogalski.

Kate Madigan has been named Executive Director, Hockey Management/Operations, a promotion from her previous role as Director of Pro Scouting. Madigan will work on hockey operations projects such as free agency, trades, analytics, budget, and coordinating hockey operations personnel.

Jim Mill, who has experience as an AGM with the Minnesota Wild, will now oversee the Devils’ pro scouting staff.

The moves were all officially announced by GM Tom Fitzgerald, though it’s not even clear what his title will be after this season. The team gave Fitzgerald a multi-year contract, but only this season is as general manager. The Pittsburgh Penguins hoped to pull him away from that role when they were searching for their own GM but were not given permission. Regardless, the team has given some promotions to deserving candidates.

Nico Hischier Has Recovered From His Leg Injury

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  • While Devils center Nico Hischier remains on the CPRA list, there is some good news on his front. Corey Masisak of The Athletic relays (Twitter link) that head coach Lindy Ruff indicated that if it wasn’t for Hischier’s placement on the list, he’d be available to play.  That’s notable since the 22-year-old has not yet played this season due to a leg injury sustained back in December.  He’ll be a welcome addition over likely the next few days to a New Jersey lineup that sits 24th in goals per game this season.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/15/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. While the league is still waiting for a report from the Edmonton Oilers, here are today’s results for the other 30 teams:

Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Hunter Miska*
Edmonton – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: John Hayden, Arizona Coyotes; Tobias Rieder, Buffalo Sabres; Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild; Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils

Many of today’s CPRA removals were revealed long before the list was published this afternoon. Hayden was in the lineup for Coyotes for their matinee match-up with the Blues, while Bastian joined the Devils in their return to practice this morning and Rieder did the same with the Sabres. Interestingly, McCabe and Montour were also participants in Buffalo practice today, likely indicating that they will come off the list tomorrow. New Jersey’s Gusev and Kulikov skated separately with coaches after practice today, possibly implying that they too will be off the list soon.

After being late to report yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche are responsible for the only CPRA addition today in young goaltender Miska. Otherwise, this is another positive day as the NHL’s COVID numbers continue to trend strongly in the right direction. With the difficult situations in Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Jersey looking like they will soon be resolved, some progress in Philadelphia is seemingly the only thing stopping the league moving on from their recent rash of postponements and lengthy CRPA lists.

 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/14/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. The league is still awaiting updated lists from the Sabres and Avalanche, but the following are the complete results from the other 29 teams:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel*
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres; Calvin Pickard, Detroit Red Wings; Blake Lizotte, Los Angeles Kings; Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils; Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers; Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s another strong net positive day for the CPRA. The only true addition to the list comes in the form of Flyers forward Konecny. The other addition, Dzingel, has entered the required quarantine period for any player crossing into Canada after he was dealt to Ottawa by Carolina on Saturday, but by all accounts has not qualified for any other reason. Meanwhile, the Red Wings and Lightning wipe the slate clean while the Devils take a major step forward with eight players coming off the list. Joining Dahlin back at Sabres practice today was also head coach Ralph Krueger, a welcome sight after his own bout with Coronavirus.

While the situations in Buffalo and Colorado remain undetermined at this point, the Devils appear to be on the mend and Minnesota Wild head coach Dean Evason stated that he expects some of his players to begin coming off the list soon as well. If the situation in Philadelphia can be sorted out – especially with their Lake Tahoe game coming up next weekend – the NHL could be looking at a refreshingly short CPRA by this time next week.

 

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