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Snapshots: 2022 Draft, Price, Ylonen

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Though the hockey calendar is starting to get back to normal, it looks like the 2022 NHL Draft may actually still be delayed from its normal late-June timeline. Corey Pronman of The Athletic tweets that the draft is likely to take place in the second week of July next year. Remember, now that the league has agreed to go to the Olympics the season schedule is a little longer than usual, which has seemingly pushed offseason dates back should Pronman’s expectation prove true.

Even though it won’t happen until next July, it’s never too early to start getting excited for the next wave of prospects. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic released his preseason top-32 ranking today, which has Shane Wright in the top spot as expected. Despite the OHL not playing last season, Wright remains the best prospect available in 2022 and is considered a lock by Wheeler at this point to be first off the board. The rest of the list has plenty of interesting scouting information on the top prospects available a year from now.

  • On July 23, the Montreal Canadiens announced that Carey Price underwent knee surgery and would face a recovery timeline of 10-12 weeks. The release included an expectation that he would be ready for the start of the regular season, and though Price has not yet begun skating, he is confident in the rehab he has been doing. The goaltender spoke with Dave Stubbs of NHL.com to discuss the injury and recovery, confirming that it had been a torn meniscus that he was dealing with for a while before the surgery. If all goes well, he’ll be back on the ice soon; his original timeline had him almost exactly synced up with the Canadiens’ season opener on October 13.
  • Speaking of Canadiens games, the organization expects young winger Jesse Ylonen to play in NHL games this season after spending last year with the Laval Rocket. That’s what director of player development Rob Ramage told Eric Engels of Sportsnet, though Ylonen will obviously still have to prove he’s ready to make the jump from Laval to Montreal. The 21-year-old was the 35th overall pick in 2018, had 17 points in 29 games with the Rocket, and actually made his NHL debut by playing 11:23 in the final game of the regular season.

Canadiens Notes: Kotkaniemi, Roster Moves, Captaincy

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The Montreal Canadiens held a press conference this morning with general manager Marc Bergevin to discuss the loss of Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the subsequent acquisition of Christian Dvorak. Bergevin gave information on multiple aspects of the situation that had evolved over the past week, as well as some other pressing questions that Montreal’s offseason inferred. In terms of the Kotkaniemi negotiations, though, Bergevin mentioned that they were discussing a two-year bridge deal with the 21-year-old Finnish forward. While he didn’t mention any specific financial terms, it’s hard to believe that the total value of the contract would’ve eclipsed the $6.1MM he received from the Hurricanes, let alone the average annual value. A two-year bridge deal would still have left Kotkaniemi with two seasons of RFA eligibility, only taking him through his age 23 season.

More from today’s Habs press conference:

Poll: Are The Montreal Canadiens A Playoff Team In 2021-22?

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After making it all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, losing in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens have had one of the most interesting offseasons of any team. That much roster turnover is unusual for a team that made it that far in the playoffs, but a decent portion of it has been out of their control.

A good portion of Montreal’s starting 12 forwards will look different next season. Gone down the middle are Phillip Danault, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Eric Staal. Dvorak will attempt to replace Danault’s shutdown role with a little more offensive touch but less defensive prowess. Kotkaniemi’s third-line role is likely to be replaced by another young center, most probably Jake Evans. Staal’s fourth-line role will likely be comprised of a more defensive-minded pivot in Cedric Paquette. Their group of wingers will look different too, losing out on Tomas Tatar’s two-way play in favor of a power-play specialist in Mike Hoffman. Gone is veteran Corey Perry in the bottom six, being replaced by another veteran presence in Mathieu Perreault.

The team’s defense faces the loss of the team’s captain in Shea Weber. His injury will keep him out for at least this entire season and puts the rest of his career in jeopardy. His absence will be replaced by committee, as youngster Alexander Romanov and new addition David Savard should see more minutes. The left side stays relatively constant from last season, and overseas addition Chris Wideman could challenge for some games as well.

A tandem of Carey Price and Jake Allen returns after a successful regular season campaign.

However, a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season returns with some question marks. Full seasons of Jonathan Drouin and Cole Caufield help boost the team, but downgrades from Danault to Dvorak and Tatar to Hoffman raise near-negating doubts. The success of youngsters like Evans and Romanov will be crucial if Montreal wants to make a return to the playoffs in 2022, and they’ll need repeat performances from players such as Jeff Petry and Josh Anderson.

So the question to you, PHR readers, is this: has Montreal done enough this offseason to yield a playoff team in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference? Make your voice heard below:

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Snapshots: Kotkaniemi, Hurricanes Cap, Quenneville

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It’s been an unusually busy weekend in the hockey world, with yesterday’s successful Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet and Christian Dvorak trade dominating headlines. Both of those moves have some corresponding implications that reach into today’s news cycle, including Kotkaniemi’s future as a playing member of the Carolina Hurricanes. General manager Don Waddell stated in his press conference this morning that the team’s plan is to start Kotkaniemi at the left-wing position in Carolina. It won’t be anything completely new for the 21-year-old Finnish forward, who’s played wing sparingly at times during his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens, but was mostly used as a bottom-six center there. Given his still-tantalizing potential and $6.1MM price tag, it’s likely that Kotkaniemi could slot in the top six along with Vincent Trocheck, but it’s all speculation until training camp begins. What’s for certain is that Carolina aims to give Kotkaniemi more opportunity and a better supporting cast than he’s had previously, hoping to get the most out of Kotkaniemi for the gamble of a price.

Some more fallout from the Kotkaniemi offer sheet, as well as a note about a Seattle Kraken expansion draft selection:

  • With today’s news of Jake Gardiner’s back and hip surgery and pending long-term injured reserve placement, the Carolina Hurricanes now have some salary-cap maneuvering to do. PuckPedia notes that Carolina will be able to exceed the cap by $4.05MM, the average annual value of Gardiner’s contract. The team currently sits at $1.5MM over the cap after the Kotkaniemi deal became official. PuckPedia also surmises that Carolina won’t have to go through too much trouble in order to maximize their salary cap relief, only sending two players down to be as close to the Upper Limit as possible before placing Gardiner on LTIR. Martin Necas remains the only non-waiver-eligible player on the roster and considering his role on the team, it’s unlikely he’ll be involved in a paper transaction. Steven Lorentz and Brendan Smith seem likely candidates to be waived and sent down in order to make the team cap-compliant.
  • The ZSC Lions of the Swiss National League announced today that they’ve signed former NHL forward John Quenneville to a contract after signing him to a professional tryout last month. Quenneville is one of a few Seattle Kraken expansion draft selections to not remain with the team into the 2021-22 season. Their selection from the Chicago Blackhawks, Quenneville was a pending unrestricted free agent and wasn’t signed by the Kraken. A first-round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2014, the now 25-year-old Quenneville never secured a full-time role in the NHL and will likely see much more opportunity overseas. Quenneville appeared in 42 NHL games between 2016 and 2020, scoring two goals and five points.

Montreal Canadiens Acquire Christian Dvorak

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The Montreal Canadiens announced today that they’ve acquired center Christian Dvorak from the Arizona Coyotes. The return is a conditional 2022 first-round draft pick as well as a 2024 second-round selection.

The conditions listed on the 2022 first-round pick are complex, to say the least. Arizona will receive the better of the two first-round picks that Montreal owns, both their own and Carolina’s (received today as compensation for Jesperi Kotkaniemi). The first-round pick is also semi-top-10 protected, meaning that if one of Montreal’s first-round selections is in the top 10 of the 2022 draft, Arizona will receive the worse of the two picks.

For Montreal, it’s a quick answer to the questions raised by how they’d fill the departure of both Phillip Danault and Kotkaniemi this offseason. There’s a lot to like about this Dvorak acquisition, including his cost certainty. The 25-year-old center is under contract for four more seasons at a cap hit of $4.45MM, with a modified no-trade clause that kicks in for the last two seasons of his deal.

Dvorak, who likely slots as the second-line center behind Nick Suzuki, is a capable two-way player who’s faced tough competition during his time in Arizona. Likely to receive a slight reduction on his 18:24 average time on ice from last season, his offensive numbers could improve from his career-high 18 goals and 38 points with a little less responsibility. From a hockey standpoint, Dvorak’s proven game at the NHL level makes him an immediate upgrade over Kotkaniemi for less money.

The Coyotes are in full teardown mode and not ashamed to show it. The team has now just three forwards on the active roster signed through next season – Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Andrew Ladd. Only two of those players are expected to be contributors at the NHL level. The team is projected to have upwards of $47MM in space heading into next year’s offseason and their gutted roster lead many to believe they’ll be in the running for first overall in 2022. Now equipped with eight picks in the first two rounds of the draft, the full rebuild has begun in Arizona.

All salary cap figures courtesy of CapFriendly.com

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was first to report the deal.

Montreal Canadiens Decline To Match Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

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The Montreal Canadiens are saying goodbye to one of their most promising young players in Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The team announced today that they won’t be matching the one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet tendered by the Carolina Hurricanes last weekend.

In return, the Canadiens are receiving Carolina’s first and third-round draft selections in the 2022 NHL Draft.

Carolina’s acquisition of Kotkaniemi marks the first successful offer sheet in the NHL since 2007 when the Edmonton Oilers successfully acquired Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks. The move to acquire the former third-overall pick at $6.1MM seems pricey for what he’s produced so far in his career, and when you look at Carolina’s salary cap situation, it appears even worse. Now finally with a full roster, the team sits at $1.52MM over the salary cap. Considering the team entered the offseason with a large amount of cap space and still lost Dougie Hamilton and Alex Nedeljkovic, questions have been rightfully raised over Carolina’s asset management strategy. But just because Kotkaniemi is making $6.1MM this season, and is consequently owed a $6.1MM qualifying offer at the end of the season, doesn’t mean he’ll cost that much down the line for Carolina. Multiple rumours have emerged that a longer-term extension for Kotkaniemi in Carolina may emerge at a lower average annual value as negotiations remain amicable.

For Montreal, their already stagnant roster now faces a massive hole at center. The team’s acquisition of Cedric Paquette won’t be nearly enough to replace the departures of Phillip Danault and Eric Staal as well as Kotkaniemi, and they need answers at the centre-ice position. Luckily for them, they’ll likely be able to find that answer with the compensation they received for Kotkaniemi. With an overpayment in real money from Carolina comes an overpayment in compensation as well. The draft picks Montreal received are much more valuable than what they would have received had they just traded Kotkaniemi anywhere else. Those picks can either be sent straight-up or packaged for a center, of which there are many on the trade market. While Christian Dvorak would appear to be the frontrunner, Tomas Hertl and Evgeny Kuznetsov remain available for trade and could soften the blow of Montreal’s lost centers.

Regardless, it’s an exciting story at a time where not much news tends to cross the NHL wire. Kotkaniemi’s performance in a new system under a new coach will be a large storyline this season, as the prospect with a high pedigree aims to live up to his third-overall potential.

All salary cap figures per CapFriendly.com.

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Opining

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Tomorrow, there is a deadline for the Montreal Canadiens to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet signed by Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the Carolina Hurricanes. The decision they have is a simple one on its face–pay Kotkaniemi $6.1MM for the 2021-22 season, or take Carolina’s first- and third-round picks to let him go.

But it’s much more than just a one-year decision and it has implications that reach much further than just one player. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has been completely silent since the agreement was announced just under a week ago, though there has been some reporting that the team is testing the market on replacement options should Kotkaniemi end up in Carolina.

With this uncommon situation, we’ve decided to unearth one of our former features: The PHR Panel. This time we’re welcoming Josh Erickson to the panel after he joined PHR earlier this offseason, but I, Brian La Rose, and Zach Leach will all give our thoughts as normal on what Montreal should do.

Q: Should Montreal match the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

Brian La Rose: 

There are two key questions where the answer determines what Montreal should do. Is there a capable second-line center that can be acquired via trade that will be around for more than a year or two? Also, if there is indeed the possibility of an extension below that AAV with Carolina as has been suggested including by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast, is that also available to Montreal?

If they are unable to land an impact center elsewhere, they may have to bite the bullet as their younger internal options aren’t ready to step into that type of role; the Jonathan Drouin experiment didn’t work the last time they tried it and there’s no reason to think it will now. And on the extension front, if there’s an acceptable one that can effectively be worked out – nothing can be made official until January – then matching for this season knowing a better contract is on the horizon becomes more palatable.

If there’s a reasonable trade waiting for Bergevin that lands him a capable second center behind Nick Suzuki, then walking away and taking the two picks makes sense. Otherwise, with how weak their depth down the middle would be (and there aren’t any impact centers in the pipeline either), they may very well have to match despite the overpayment and the potential for a much messier cap situation moving forward. With things dragging out this long, it doesn’t seem like a viable trade is presenting itself so matching starts to look a bit more viable as a result for the Canadiens but it will undoubtedly be a tough pill to swallow.

Zach Leach: 

The Canadiens should match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet. Yes, it may not be the more reasonable of the two choices, but then again this was not a reasonable move in the first place. The Hurricanes clearly have interest in Kotkaniemi, but this offer sheet is all about revenge and embarrassment. Carolina made that perfectly clear with the manner in which they announced and subsequently responded to the news of the offer sheet on social media. If Montreal does not match the offer, then they are making the Hurricanes just the second team to successfully offer sheet a player since the turn of the century. They are admitting that Carolina did a better job of poaching a young impact player than they did two years ago. They are surrendering.

Even if Kotkaniemi is not worth $6.1MM, which no one believes that he is right now, the Canadiens are giving up a promising, 21-year-old prospect who they selected with the No. 3 pick just three years ago, and moreover, he is going to what is suddenly a bitter rival. The Hurricanes may already have a handshake agreement on a more accurately-priced extension with Koktaniemi as well. The young center has tremendous possession numbers, has shown flashes of immense scoring ability, and is filling out his frame and becoming a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi could still be a star in the NHL, even if the early results at a very young age have been unspectacular. He is certainly worth more than late first- and third-round picks, especially to a Montreal team that is thin down the middle. Even if the Canadiens flip that draft pick compensation for a replacement for Kotkaniemi, they are doing so with the rest of the league knowing exactly what is going on and will not receive fair value and likely not adequately address the departure.

Sure, there are serious cap implications for the Canadiens. However, in the short term, they can make room for Kotkaniemi to begin the year, even with a full 23-man roster, by placing Shea Weber on LTIR and burying Paul Byron and Cedric Paquette. Montreal could also keep Kotkaniemi, a center they desperately need, and instead trade a superfluous winger such as Artturi Lehkonen. Might things be tight, short-term and long-term, by accommodating Kotkaniemi’s cap hit? Definitely. But if the Hurricanes are willing to make adjustments, then so too should the Canadiens. Allowing Kotkaniemi to walk and replacing him with another high-cost trade acquisition doesn’t make much cap sense either.

Any result in which the Canadiens do not match the offer sheet is a win for the Hurricanes and a loss for the Canadiens, and frankly, Montreal needs a win. This all began with a poorly constructed offer sheet two years ago for Sebastian Aho that ended up being a favor to the Hurricanes. A better offer could have landed the team the franchise center that they have been looking for. Montreal moved on, made different choices with their forwards, and surprised everyone with a run to the Stanley Cup this season. However, they fell short and now are set to return to the lion’s den that is the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Florida Panthers. Their off-season has been defined by a controversial draft choice and several free agent contracts whose values were worthy of skepticism. The Canadiens do not need another blemish this season. Maybe Kotkaniemi doesn’t pan out in the long term, but this is about more than just one player. It is about the image of the club and the morale in the locker room. The Canadiens need to assert themselves and demand some respect when the Hurricanes showed little. They can do that by matching the offer.

Josh Erickson: 

There are so many reasons why Montreal’s matching of the Kotkaniemi offer sheet would be completely nonsensical.

Cap space is the most obvious and pressing issue. While Montreal could currently accomodate Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM cap hit with their LTIR situation, they wouldn’t be able to all season. Byron won’t be out the entire year and will come off LTIR at some point, leaving only Weber’s $7.85MM cap hit on LTIR. With Montreal already spending $2.27MM into their LTIR pool, an additional $6.1MM caused by Kotkaniemi wouldn’t make the team cap-compliant. Even as it stands, Montreal’s active roster only has 19 skaters (Chris Wideman being the likely healthy scratch).

It also doesn’t make a lot of sense to drastically change the team’s makeup to retain Kotkaniemi. The team’s demonstrated a commitment to head coach Dominique Ducharme, who hasn’t developed the best relationship with Kotkaniemi at this point in his career. Selling off assets in order to retain a player who’s future with the club remains uncertain past this season, especially one with a $6.1MM qualifying offer, doesn’t seem like the best position to take from an asset management standpoint.

It all stands to say that the first- and third-round picks are far more valuable to the team at this point in time than Kotkaniemi at a $6.1MM cap hit and qualifying offer. There’s no guarantee that Montreal would be able to receive that return for Kotkaniemi in a future trade.

Gavin Lee:

As you can see from my colleagues, this situation has produced drastically different opinions. That’s exactly what a well-constructed offer sheet is supposed to do; make it a difficult decision on the original team, who then will have to take a gamble one way or the other. There’s no clear answer here for the Canadiens like there was with the Aho offer sheet two years ago.

The simple fact is that Montreal is trying to win right now. You don’t go out and sign Mike Hoffman and David Savard if you’re willing to spend a year developing young talent. The Canadiens want to give Carey Price the best chance to win a Stanley Cup right now, and frankly, I don’t see how letting Kotkaneimi walk helps in that pursuit. Unless there is a legitimate difference-maker out there that you think you can land with those additional assets–someone like Jack Eichel–sure, let him walk and flip the picks. But if you’re going to turn around and trade for someone like Christian Dvorak? Just match the offer and take your chances with an extension negotiation down the road.

The idea that Kotkaniemi is a bust is misguided. If anything, it’s just that his development was rushed by the Canadiens in the first place due to how much they believed in his talent. He turned 21 in July and has already played in 200 NHL games, including 29 postseason contests. He may never become the Anze Kopitar that people compared him to in his draft year–which was always a bit ridiculous–but the idea that he’ll never become more than a third-line center is still very premature.

There is also a mechanism that could get the $6.1MM qualifying offer down a bit, though that may provide little comfort to fans that have already made up their mind on Kotkaniemi. If he fails to live up to that kind of a contract, the Canadiens could elect salary arbitration in the usually unused first window in lieu of a qualifying offer and retain his rights with 85%–$5.185MM–of his contract value. Suddenly that becomes a little more palatable, though it can only be done once in a player’s career and it doesn’t guarantee that salary.

It’s not a situation I’d want to be in, but unless Montreal has a replacement–and a good one, not just a middle-six player–waiting in the wings,  they should match the offer.

Logan Mailloux Suspended Indefinitely By OHL

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Montreal Canadiens’ first-round pick Logan Mailloux won’t be starting the year with the London Knights after all. The OHL has handed Mailloux an indefinite suspension for violating the league’s “expectation of the appropriate conduct of an OHL player.” He can apply for reinstatement to the league on or after January 1, 2022 and a decision on his reinstatement will be based in part on his conduct since returning to Canada, the appropriate treatment, counseling, mentoring, and or education he receives from the date of today’s decision.

Mailloux, 18, was charged with taking and distributing an offensive photo without consent during a sexual encounter last year while playing in Sweden. He attempted to renounce himself from the 2021 NHL Draft, issuing a statement asking all 32 teams to not select him, but the Canadiens used the 31st overall pick on him anyway.

At the time, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin released a statement explaining that though they were aware of the situation, the team would make “a commitment to accompany Logan on his journey by providing him with the tools to mature and the necessary support to guide him in his development.”

When Mailloux attempted to renounce himself from the draft, he indicated in a statement that he wanted to return to London and play a season with the Knights while demonstrating “an adequate level of maturity and character.” He will no longer get that chance, at least through the end of the calendar year.

Christian Dvorak Is Believed To Be Montreal's Top Trade Target

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The Canadiens are believed to have identified Coyotes center Christian Dvorak as their top trade target as they investigate their options following the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels (audio link).  The 25-year-old was the logical speculative target for Montreal in this scenario with Arizona believed to be willing to move him and Dvorak being signed for four more years at $4.45MM while plausibly slotting in on the second line in the role that Kotkaniemi was expected to fill.  The asking price for Dvorak was believed to be high at the draft and with Montreal’s hand being forced here, it could even be higher now.

Poll: Should The Canadiens Match The Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet?

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The biggest news in the hockey world right now is the offer sheet that the Carolina Hurricanes signed with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The Montreal Canadiens have just a few more days to decide whether or not to match the one-year $6.1MM contract and keep Kotaniemi or let him go to the Hurricanes in exchange for first- and third-round picks.

The decision, some say, is an easy one—it’s the answer that many disagree on.

The Canadiens could just wave goodbye, collect their picks and go after another center, knowing that Kotkaniemi is not worth anywhere near that $6.1MM price tag this season. The deal would force either team to extend a qualifying offer of the same amount moving forward, though if the player is willing, an extension could also be worked out at a lower number. Two picks could help Montreal in a search for a different player, with many pointing to Jack Eichel as the name they could pursue with some added draft capital.

Because he has disappointed up until now, it’s easy to forget just how young and talented Kotkaniemi is. He turned 21 just last month and already has 200 NHL games under his belt. He has scored just 84 points in those games, including 12 in 29 postseason appearances, but there is obviously room to grow. Even if he was perhaps a mistake at third-overall in 2018–the existence of Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes would certainly argue so–that doesn’t mean he’s a worthless asset. In fact, it seems likely that the Canadiens could have gotten at least a late-first and a third for him had they decided to trade Kotkaneimi this offseason, probably more.

But now that the Hurricanes have forced their hand, it’s one or the other. Overpay a player who has not lived up to the hype to this point and is obviously not fully trusted by the coaching staff, or take that package (and only that package) as compensation. If they do match it, Montreal can’t trade Kotkaniemi for a year, meaning there’s no sign-and-flip coming.

For whatever you think of the player, it’s not easy to watch a third-overall pick walk out the door just six weeks after his 21st birthday. There’s a very real chance that Kotkaniemi not only lives up to his billing as a top-six center, but he could still be exactly what the Canadiens are looking for as a long-term complement to Nick Suzuki down the middle.

It’s not an easy decision for Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, but perhaps it is for you! Cast your vote below and explain your thoughts in the comment section.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

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