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PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.

The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.

After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.

Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.

Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.

The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.

Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4

Carolina takes season series 2-1-0

Team Storylines

The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?

Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.

That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.

Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.

There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.

Prediction

Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.

They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.

It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.

Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.

Egor Korshkov Traded In Russia

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  • 2016 second-round pick Egor Korshkov has been dealt in the KHL, heading to Amur Khabarovsk after three seasons with Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. The former Toronto Maple Leafs prospect never panned out, only playing one full season in the AHL, but he did score one goal in his only NHL appearance in the 2019-20 season. His player rights have since been traded to the Carolina Hurricanes and, later, the Florida Panthers, where he remains on their reserve list should he ever choose to return to the NHL. Now 26, Korshkov had just four goals in 40 KHL games last season.

Panthers RFA Logan Hutsko Signs In Sweden

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After a pair of seasons in the minors, Panthers prospect Logan Hutsko has opted for a change of scenery.  The forward has signed a two-year contract with IK Oskarshamn of the SHL, per a team release.

The 24-year-old was a third-round pick by Florida back in 2018 (89th overall) but only has a couple of years of pro experience under his belt since he played a full four years at Boston College.  Hutsko had a good first season in the minors last year with 38 points in 71 games but injuries limited him to just 43 appearances in 2022-23 where he was fairly productive with 27 points.  That makes his decision to leave a little surprising but the fact that he wasn’t among Florida’s ‘Black Ace’ promotions earlier this month probably didn’t help things.

Florida can still control Hutsko through 2026 and with this deal running through the end of the 2024-25 campaign, it seems likely that they will still tender him a qualifying offer this summer to retain his rights.  In the meantime, they’ll hope that Hutsko can take another step in his development in Sweden and then assess if he’s worth bringing back in a couple of years.

Ryan Lomberg Doubtful To Return Next Round

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Another day of morning skates for the Toronto Maple Leafs brings more updates on their duo of injured players, who are both ruled out for Game 5 against the Florida Panthers tonight but making progress in their recoveries. This morning, The Hockey News’ Mike Stephens relayed that netminder Ilya Samsonov was skating on his own this morning, practicing in isolation with Toronto’s skills coaches.

  • Rookie forward Matthew Knies is also practicing for the first time today since his concussion in Game 2 of the Florida series, says The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel. Knies was injured on a play behind the net, forced to the ice by Panthers forward Sam Bennett. While he won’t play tonight, Knies’ status is day-to-day and he hasn’t been ruled out for a potential Game 6 on Sunday.

Afternoon Notes: Bruins, Samsonov, Sprong

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Ty Anderson of 98.5 The Sports Hub is reporting that Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney is hinting that the Bruins will go into a re-tool this offseason. What that will be remains to be seen but the long-time GM was quoted as saying, “roster changes are likely coming.” Sweeney continually referenced Boston’s dire salary cap situation as well as integrating younger players into the lineup. Sweeney’s words are no surprise given that Boston has less than $5MM in cap space entering the offseason and have just seven of their current forwards signed to contracts for next year. Boston will also need to work out a new contract for backup goaltender Jeremy Swayman who will be a restricted free agent this summer.

On top of needing to work out a deal with Swayman, Boston has many other key free agents who will likely need to move on given the Bruins lack of cap space. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí are both unrestricted free agents who played on low cap hits last season and hit bonus clauses that will cause Boston to carry bonus overages of $4.5MM into 2023-24. Trade deadline acquisitions Tyler Bertuzzi, Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway are also all unrestricted free agents this summer and are likely to seek employment elsewhere. Given everything going on in Boston they will have a very different looking team than the one that lost in the first round to the Florida Panthers.

In other notes from around the NHL:

NHL Insider Chris Johnston tweeted today from Toronto Maple Leafs practice that Ilya Samsonov was not at Toronto practice and that goalie coach Curtis Sanford was working with Joseph Woll and Matt Murray. The Leafs have yet to offer an update on their netminders status for game 4. Samsonov is expected to have an MRI and some additional tests prior to the team offering an update on their starter for the elimination game on Wednesday. Woll would be the likely starter for Toronto should Samsonov be unable to play. The 26-year-old Samsonov was injured in a collision with teammate Luke Schenn in game 3 and was unable to return to action.

The Seattle Kraken have announced that forward Daniel Sprong has been ruled out of game 4 against the Dallas Stars. The 26-year-old is dealing with an upper body injury and won’t dress tonight as they Kraken look to take a 3-1 stranglehold on their second round series. Sprong has just two points in 10 games in these playoffs and is currently mired in a six-game pointless streak. He played just 6:36 in Seattle’s 7-2 game 3 victory and has been largely relegated to fourth line minutes during his recent stretch of poor play.

Florida Panthers Sign Mackie Samoskevich

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Forward prospect Mackie Samoskevich has agreed to terms with the Florida Panthers on a three-year, entry-level contract, the team announced Monday. Florida selected Samoskevich, 20, with the 24th overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft.

PuckPedia provided the terms of Samoskevich’s deal, which begins immediately with a $925,000 cap hit and expires after the 2024-25 season. At that point, he’ll be a restricted free agent. Given Samoskevich was on Florida’s reserve list at the time of the trade deadline, he is now eligible to play in any remaining Stanley Cup Playoff games for the Panthers.

Panthers general manager Bill Zito offered the following statement on the signing:

Mackie is a creative, dynamic playmaker who possesses an elite shooting ability and high hockey IQ. We’re excited to sign him to our organization and to see him take the next step in his progression as a professional.

The Connecticut-born Samoskevich comes from quite the hockey family, with sisters Maddy Samoskevich and Melissa Samoskevich putting up impressive numbers in their collegiate careers with Quinnipiac. Melissa Samoskevich had a breakout pro season for the PHF’s Connecticut Whale in 2022-23, scoring 16 points in 24 games.

Their brother opted to play his college hockey at the University of Michigan, though, where he reached the NCAA Men’s Frozen Four in back-to-back seasons. Samoskevich opted to turn pro at the end of Michigan’s season, signing a professional tryout agreement with Florida’s AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers. There, he registered six assists in nine combined regular-season and playoff games, a strong start to a promising career.

Samoskevich was named to the Big 10 conference’s all-rookie team after the 2021-22 campaign after he registered 29 points in 40 games. He left those offensive totals in the dust this season, though, with 20 goals and 43 points in 39 games for Michigan.

He also represented the United States at the 2022 Men’s World Junior Championship, recording three assists in five games.

Florida Panthers Recall Ten Players

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4:00 PM: The Panthers have officially announced the recalls, and added one name that wasn’t included in Richards’ report: goaltender Evan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick, 25, is a 2016 second-round pick who played in 17 games with the ECHL’s Florida Everblades and posted an 11-3-1 record and .921 save percentage in those games. Fitzpatrick saw action in one AHL game this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots in an April 1st overtime loss to the Springfield Thunderbirds. With Guzda, Lyon, and Bobrovsky ahead of him on the depth chart something would have to go quite wrong for him to see time in these playoffs, so this recall is more about adding some depth to the team than anything else.

10:37 AM: The Florida Panthers have brought up their complement of Black Aces for the remainder of the playoffs today ahead of Game 3 against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Per Florida Hockey Now’s George Richards, the following players have been brought up from the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers:

F Connor Bunnaman
F Grigori Denisenko
F Patrick Giles
F Aleksi Heponiemi
D Lucas Carlsson
D Matt Kiersted
D Santtu Kinnunen
D John Ludvig
D Calle Själin
G Mack Guzda

The recalls come after the Hershey Bears eliminated Charlotte from the Calder Cup Playoffs on May 4, taking their Atlantic Division semifinal series by a count of 3-1.

The two most intriguing names on this list are Denisenko and Heponiemi, both previously highly-touted prospects that have yet to make a notable NHL impact. Denisenko struggled in the minors this year and posted no points and a -1 rating in four playoff games for Charlotte. The 24-year-old Heponiemi, however, led the team with seven points in seven playoff games.

One name that Panthers fans will definitely recognize is Carlsson, who dropped back into an AHL role this season after appearing in 40 games for Florida during 2021-22. Carlsson was one of the best defenders in the AHL this season, recording 54 points in 61 games along with a +24 rating. He’s one of the more dependable recall options for Florida should injuries pop up among their defensemen.

The 24-year-old Kinnunen is also a name to watch for in the coming years. A seventh-round pick of the Panthers in 2018, Kinnunen broke out for 35 points in 69 regular-season games and six points in seven playoff games for Charlotte during his first season in North America.

Ryan Lomberg Resumes Skating

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Panthers winger Ryan Lomberg has resumed skating as he works his way back from an upper-body injury, relays David Dwork of WPLG Local 10 (Twitter link).  The 28-year-old was injured in the playoff opener against Boston but suited up in three more games before being shut down for the fifth game of that series.  Lomberg, who had a career year during the regular season with 12 goals and 20 points in 82 games, is still listed as week-to-week so it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to suit up during their second-round series against Toronto.

Sam Bennett Fined For Cross-Checking

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The NHL’s Department of Player Safety announced Friday morning that Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, for a cross-checking incident involving Toronto Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting in last night’s 3-2 win for Florida in Game 2 of their Second Round series.

DoPS has not made an announcement regarding any discipline for Bennett on a first-period collision that resulted in an injury to Toronto winger Matthew Knies. Knies skated one shift after the play before leaving the game with an injury.

Bennett was assessed a minor penalty on the cross-checking play involving Bunting and no penalty on the play involving Knies. The Panthers center cross-checked Bunting in the side of the head during a net-front battle, causing Bunting to fall to the ice. While on the ice, Bennett again cross-checked Bunting in the lower back.

Among the Toronto fanbase, the play drew comparisons to Auston Matthews’ cross-check to the face of Buffalo Sabres defender Rasmus Dahlin during last year’s Heritage Classic. Matthews received a two-game suspension as a result of the play.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Second Round coverage with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.

Two teams with very short histories of recent playoff success will face off against each other in the Second Round. What could go wrong?

Both teams overcame adversity to get to this point, although one team’s path is much more impressive than the other. The Florida Panthers are here against all odds, finishing the regular season as the 17th-place team in the league but vanquishing the record-setting Boston Bruins in seven games. It’s the first time in franchise history the Panthers have advanced in the postseason in back-to-back years.

The Maple Leafs, while favored to win their series, exorcised past failures in their own right, advancing in the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades. It’s a massive step toward ending the longest championship drought in the league, one in which they’ll have to vanquish both Florida teams to end.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 17, 2023: Florida 4, Toronto 5 (OT)
March 23, 2023: Toronto 6, Florida 2
March 29, 2023: Florida 3, Toronto 2 (OT)
April 10, 2023: Toronto 2, Florida 1 (OT)

Toronto takes season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

It was a tale of two seasons for the Florida Panthers, who went 12-5-2 after the trade deadline to rocket back into playoff position after a disappointing first half to the campaign. Fortunately for them, they were able to keep it rolling in the playoffs, and their early-series dominance and late-series heroics were enough to create one of the largest upsets in NHL history.

It should strike fear into the Toronto Maple Leafs, who deserve full credit for their series win, but were outplayed heavily at times by the Lightning and got some soft goals past a normally stout Andrei Vasilevskiy. One main reason for optimism for Leafs fans, however, is their play against Florida down the stretch. Three of their four season matchups game within the last few weeks of the campaign, with Florida scratching and clawing for playoff positioning. Toronto came out victorious in two of the three games, dropping the other in overtime.

Toronto was able to get to the slot with ease in their 6-2 win, forcing nine high-danger chances against Sergei Bobrovsky. Their more balanced attack, with the inclusion of Ryan O’Reilly to the third line, will be key in getting through a Florida defense that lacks depth behind Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad.

Goaltending may as well be a toss-up in this series. With Bobrovsky reclaiming the starter’s net in Florida, he and Ilya Samsonov have had very similar postseasons. Both have let in shaky goals at times but have turned it on in clutch moments, stealing their team’s games despite mediocre save percentages.

Defensively, Toronto will need to change their game plan when hemmed in their own zone. A common criticism against Toronto in the first round was their passiveness, allowing the Lightning to cycle freely in the zone and activate their defensemen at the points. With Montour’s current offensive dominance for Florida, he’ll be an unleashed weapon in this series if the Leafs aren’t more aggressive in covering the points.  There’s also the matter of Matthew Tkachuk to stop, who’s taken Florida on his back this season.

The same goes for Florida, who have to contend with a red-hot Morgan Rielly for Toronto. The Maple Leafs were much more confident moving the puck in their series-clinching Game 6 win, largely in part due to swapping in Timothy Liljegren in the lineup for Justin Holl. That change is expected to stick for Game 1.

Prediction

Both teams won their series in similar ways: clutch saves and mastering a “bend but don’t break” mentality. With the monkey off the Maple Leafs’ backs, however, the advantage goes to the team with better depth at every position.

Toronto’s ability to roll three lines and advance the puck out of the zone with a more confident defense, as well as a dialed-in Ilya Samsonov, should keep the upstart Panthers at bay and guide the Maple Leafs to the conference finals for the first time since 2002.

Prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

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