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Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins

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The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.

It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.

Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.

Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season  this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). Justin Schultz

Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.

Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.

It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arizona Coyotes Trade Henrik Samuelsson To Edmonton Oilers

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Just hours after dealing Justin Peters to the Dallas Stars, the Arizona Coyotes are at it again. They’ve sent Henrik Samuelsson to the Edmonton Oilers for Mitch Moroz. Both players were selected in the 2012 draft, just five picks apart (27th and 32nd respectively).

Samuelsson was once a highly regarded prospect, going in the first round and bursting onto the AHL season as a rookie. He scored 40 points in 68 games that season and had the pedigree of his former-NHL father Ulf Samuelsson. Since that rookie season when he got a three-game taste with the Coyotes, Samuelsson has completely dropped off the map. Scoring just 12 points last season and dealing with multiple lower-body injuries has him almost listed as a bust among Arizona prospects. His skating has never been good enough for the NHL and though he’s only 22, it will be a long road ahead for him to turn it around.

Moroz, much the same story, was a teammate of Samuelsson on the Edmonton Oil Kings when they won a Memorial Cup in 2014. Selected just a few picks later he hadn’t reached the same scoring highs as his teammate but was expected to grow into a legitimate NHL power forward. Also just 22, he may still find the scoring touch that he has been sorely missing but it’s been a long three years since he left junior. In 123 AHL games, Moroz has just 22 points. Even his physical play has taken a step backwards, and he’ll need to find new motivation should he want to continue his professional career.

It’s an odd move for the Coyotes, who would be the last team expected to go after a former enforcer with little to no scoring ability. Perhaps they see something in Moroz that the Oilers have given up on, but more likely this is just a positional move as the Coyotes have a surplus of centers and the Oilers need some for their minor league squad.

Trade Currency: Surplus Draft Picks

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Trade time is upon us, with the NHL deadline coming just a month from now. While the players take a few days off for the All-Star break, front offices are busy setting up a plan for the next few weeks – unless you’re Joe Sakic that is, who took part in the Celebrity Shootout this afternoon and tapped in a goal.

One of the things team’s use most during this time to add depth to their teams are draft picks. Last year, 13 picks changed hands on deadline day itself, with another handful in the days prior. For teams looking to add for a playoff run, draft picks feel much easier to part with than roster players.

Going into this deadline, some teams have more picks accumulated from prior deals to work with. Here is a breakdown of a few teams that might be buyers, and have extra 2017 picks to dangle in trade talks.

Carolina Hurricanes – New York Rangers’ 2nd-round selection, New Jersey’s 3rd-round selection.

Carolina acquired the Rangers’ second-rounder when they dealt Eric Staal at the deadline last year. The Devils’ third-rounder is one that came with conditions, though they were likely met when Andrei Loktionov went back to the KHL. The Hurricanes could use some help if they’re going to catch anyone in the Metropolitan division.

Chicago Blackhawks – Carolina’s 5th-round selection, St. Louis’ 5th-round selection, New York Islanders’ 6th-round selection.

The Blackhawks will be using anything they can to add at the deadline, meaning these three extra picks could come in handy. They could also use them to beef up a farm system that has continued to develop replacements for players lost to salary cap crunches.

Edmonton Oilers – St. Louis’ 3rd-round selection, Vancouver’s 5th-round selection

Both extra picks the Oilers have are conditional, but unless Nail Yakupov has a tremendous second-half, it looks like neither will change from this season. A team that hasn’t been a buyer in a long time, they have enough young players to sacrifice some draft talent.

Montreal Canadiens – Washington’s 2nd-round selection.

The Habs got a couple of second-round picks when they moved Lars Eller this summer, meaning they’ll have some extra currency when the deadline comes around. It’ll be interesting to see if Montreal uses their draft picks instead of prospect capital to make a move at the deadline.

Philadelphia Flyers – Boston’s 3rd-round selection, Philadelphia’s 4th-round selection.

The Flyers have had a rough stretch after starting so well, but after beating the Maple Leafs on Thursday night are currently back in a playoff spot. If they decide that they can still push, they could use these extra picks in a package. Goaltending and defense is on their mind, but they’d obviously have to include more than the mid-round picks.

Toronto Maple Leafs – San Jose’s 2nd-round pick, Ottawa’s 2nd-round pick.

The Maple Leafs already owe Anaheim one of the two picks from the Frederik Andersen trade last summer, but could still use the other one to help them back into the playoffs for the first time since the shortened season. The Shanaplan says to build slow through the draft, but with the extra pick the team could add some veteran depth to a blueline that still has trouble defending.

Afternoon Snapshots: Duchene, Wings’ Contracts, McLellan

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Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun reports that it will cost a lot for the Ottawa Senators to acquire the Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. He adds that it would behoove the Sens to wait on any potential deal for Duchene. According to Garrioch, it would cost upwards to a first round pick, a top four defenseman, and a top prospect. Garrioch adds that the requests are “fantasy” like, and that Colorado might even ask for more should the trade market yield little fruit in the way of impact players. Though Pierre Dorion is looking to improve the roster, he won’t be that desperate to give up so much.

In other news around the league:

  • TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down the nightmarish contracts the Red Wings have and it appears as bleak as it looks. He lists Henrik Zetterberg’s deal as one that will bog the team down as he ages, noting that Zetterberg is not producing as he once did. He adds that Frans Nielsen is not living up to his rich and long term contract, but that at only 32, he’s still movable. It’s the contracts for Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader where Yost sharpens his criticism as the Wings threw money away on players hardly worth the financial investment (a combined $8.1MM cap hit). Those that passed the test? Gustav Nyquist. Though paid to be a goal scorer, Yost points out that Nyquist is a core player and there are other arguments out there defending Nyquist’s value. Mike Green is another name Yost brings up as worth the money. Regardless, it’s another indication that unless Ken Holland is prudent and crafty, the Wings are in for tough times ahead.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins believes that Edmonton bench boss Todd McLellan doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the Oilers’ turnaround. An underrated catalyst to the success of the Oilers, McLellan has Leavins’ vote for the Jack Adams Award, given annually to the league’s best coach. To turn around a decade’s long culture of losing is impressive in itself. Leavins even points out that McLellan, a patient man who gets coaching advice while at Edmonton gas stations, is more than willing to accept blame for the team’s failures. Regardless of who deserves the credit for the Oilers turnaround, Leavins feels it’s a disservice to not give McLellan the lion’s share of the kudos.

Snapshots: McDavid Effect, Tortorella, Van Riemsdyk

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In 2012-13, Eerie Otters forward J.P. Labardo scored a career-high 62 points. The next season, Otters forward Dane Fox scored a whopping 64 goals in 67 games, more than his previous four seasons’ combined. What do these sudden offensive outbursts have in common? Connor McDavid.

You’re forgiven if you haven’t heard of either of these men. Labardo is out of hockey while Fox is in the ECHL. But they both demonstrate what could be called “The McDavid Effect.”

When McDavid turned pro, struggling former first-overall pick Nail Yakupov had 10 points in 13 games playing with McDavid, but posted just 13 points in his next 47 games without McDavid. Now, Patrick Maroon is six goals above his career-high in just 50 games, mostly on McDavid’s wing.

National Post scribe Michael Traikos mentions those four men as shining examples of beneficiaries to playing with McDavid. Oilers coach Todd McLellan doesn’t want to take anything away from the effort Maroon has put in to improve, but adds that “playing with Connor helps. He has a tendency to make players around him better and that’s what superstars do.”

Maroon’s success is likely a result of being at the right-place at the right-time. He’s finally put in the off-season work: he lost 20 lbs over the summer and gained the step necessary to play with the speedy McDavid. Maroon told Traikos that he doesn’t “just skate around and expect [McDavid] to pass the puck to me… There’s a lot more to it.” McDavid praised Maroon as “one of the best forecheckers in the league.”

Regardless of who is on his wing, one of McDavid’s best attributes is his unselfish ability to improve those around him, and that should lead to more players being interested in the surging Oilers.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets will be without their head coach tonight. The team’s website announced that John Tortorella has returned to Columbus “due to a family emergency.” He will also miss the upcoming NHL All-Star game, where he was scheduled to coach the Metropolitan Division. Tortorella says he did not make the decision lightly and he hopes to back next week. Earlier today, it was announced that Blue Jackets forward Cam Atkinson would join Seth Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky in Los Angeles for the All-Star festivities.
  • While some hockey insiders believe that the Maple Leafs should be buyers at the trade deadline in order to make a big playoff push, there’s disagreement on who should be traded. TSN’s Dave Poulin believes the Maple Leafs should hold on to James Van Riemsdyk, despite the swirling trade rumors. While the big winger could get the team an upgrade on defense, Poulin argues that Van Riemsdyk is a veteran leader who is a perfect fit for the young Maple Leafs as they fight to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Van Riemsdyk has 39 points in 46 games and has been a great influence on rookie Mitch Marner.

Pacific Division Snapshots: Jones, Hertl, McDavid, Draisaitl

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With San Jose goaltender Martin Jones scheduled to make his 42nd start of the season tomorrow, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area wonders whether the 27-year-old’s workload has been too heavy. As it stands now, Jones is on pace to start nearly 70 games in 2016-17. The scribe spoke with former Sharks net minder Brian Boucher to seek his opinion on the matter. In Boucher’s estimation, if San Jose is to seriously contend for a Stanley Cup, they need to find a way to cut Jones’ workload, perhaps to something in the neighborhood of 65 games over a full schedule.

Boucher also questions whether the team fully trusts rookie goalie Aaron Dell, who has posted terrific numbers in limited action. Dell, 27, has won six of his eight starts and has posted a S% of 0.930 with a GAA of 1.97. The Sharks are currently in first place in the Pacific Division, 13 points ahead of fourth place Calgary, and assuming they can maintain that cushion it’s quite possible the Sharks will give Dell more time between the pipes in order to keep Jones as fresh as possible for a playoff run. If not, the team might peruse the trade market in search of a quality backup, much like the did a year ago by acquiring James Reimer ahead of the deadline.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Sticking with San Jose, it appears the Sharks are going to be welcoming young forward Tomas Hertl back to the lineup, as Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News reports. Hertl, who has been skating with the team for the last week, missed the team’s last 31 games with a knee sprain. Pashelka is unsure where Hertl will slot into the lineup upon his return but he notes the 23-year-old Czech had been the team’s third-line pivot prior to the injury.
  • David Staples of Postmedia suggests it’s time for the Edmonton Oilers to split up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, noting that each has become a solid defensive pivot and slotting one on the other’s wing is a waste. The notion represents a possible solution to the club’s third-line center question as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, as solid two-way pivot, would slide down the lineup in this scenario. The flip side, of course, is such a move weakens the team on the wing thus lessening the possibility of the team listening on offers for Jordan Eberle and perhaps increasing the odds Edmonton might rather add a winger prior to the trade deadline.

 

Trade Candidates: Jordan Eberle

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

After a decade of aimlessly wandering in the wilderness, the Edmonton Oilers are finally on the rise. That means the possibility of buying at the NHL Trade Deadline to bolster their lineup for the playoffs. Because the Oilers aren’t what most would consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, GM Peter Chiarelli will need to avoid mortaging the future to add a rental player to the current roster. St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk has been linked to Edmonton at various times over the past seven months, but his apparent unwillingness to commit long-term in northern Alberta means a deadline deal is somewhat unlikely.

However, if there is a deal to be made that improves the Oilers for this season and the future, then that makes sense for Chiarelli to pursue. One of the names that has been out there for much of the season is Jordan Eberle. He could be an attractive option for a team looking for a scoring winger. The Oilers could use a right-handed offensive defenseman and a top-nine center with offensive ability. Should Leon Draisaitl continue to show great chemistry with Connor McDavid, he could be moved permanently to the starboard side. When you include prospect Jesse Puljujärvi, the Oilers have their top-six right wingers for the next decade. That could make the streaky Eberle available, for the right price.

Contract

Eberle has two more seasons left after this one at $6MM.

2016-17

It’s been a streaky season for Eberle, who has goalless droughts of six (twice), nine, and most recently 18 games. Despite only scoring in eight games this season, he has 11 goals in those eight games. That includes three two-goal games. After breaking the 18-game drought, he has three goals and five points in his last three games. He’s been a consistent 25-goal scorer in his career, and should regress to the mean over the rest of season.

Season Stats

49 games: 11 goals, 21 assists, 32 points. 53.9 CF%, -1, 17:19 ATOI.

Potential Suitors

TSN’s Darren Dreger recently reported (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRagSports.com) that the Oilers asking price for Eberle “has always been high, understandably so, because he’s been one of the Edmonton Oilers’ players that is a big part of the core.”

Dreger speculated that if the Oilers decided Eberle was expendable, it would “ignite some kind of short-term market.”

Teams looking for an offensive winger include Anaheim, Buffalo, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, the New York Islanders, Ottawa, and Vancouver. Anaheim may be a division rival, but has great defensive depth and could strike a deal based on a package including Brandon Montour. Nashville could offer someone like Craig Smith plus something else; Smith has scoring ability and can play either right wing or center. The Islanders have a glaring need for a winger for John Tavares, whom Eberle has a history with. After a year of Eberle-for-Travis Hamonic rumors, Garth Snow could be ready for a major shakeup.

Likelihood Of A Trade

During the season? Not likely. The Oilers have a 98.9 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to SportsClubStats.com. The Oilers don’t want to make a big move that will affect their expansion plans or weaken their poor right-wing depth. They’ll look to make adds like they did with Patrick Maroon at last year’s deadline: an NHL player who can contribute beyond this season. It would take a perfect offer to force Chiarelli’s hand mid-season or before the expansion draft.

This off-season? Much more likely. Especially if Draisaitl continues to show well alongside McDavid and Puljujärvi shows improvement. The Oilers’ cap situation will get murky in the coming years, with McDavid, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, and Matt Benning all needing new deals in the next two off-seasons.

Pacific Notes: Oilers, Flames, Holland, Marleau

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Although the Edmonton Oilers find themselves comfortably in a playoff spot, TSN’s Darren Dreger doesn’t expect GM Peter Chiarelli to make any big splashes, he told TSN 1260 in Edmonton (transcription courtesy of Fan Rag’s Chris Nichols):

“I don’t project that Chiarelli is going to be doing any big game hunting. That’s not to say he’s not listening, and if another defenseman was thrown into the market that the Oilers wouldn’t try and acquire that piece – or perhaps some depth on the wing, or maybe a little bit of insurance at center ice as well.”

Dreger suggests that one area that the Oilers could try to land an upgrade for is rookie Drake Caggiula’s third line center spot.  The youngster has fared okay in that role but the belief is that he’s more comfortable on the wing and given his smaller stature (5’9), he’s not an ideal fit down the middle.

[Related: Oilers Depth Chart]

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • Although he passed over goalies like Ben Bishop and Marc-Andre Fleury to acquire Brian Elliott from St. Louis last summer, Calgary GM Brad Treliving would be wise to reconsider those two options, suggests Jared Clinton of The Hockey News. Elliott has had more down moments than good ones and currently boasts a subpar 2.92 GAA and a .891 SV%.  Basically, he’s not the starter of the future to build around.  Backup Chad Johnson has fared better (a 2.41 GAA with a .917 SV%) but he isn’t viewed as a long-term starter either while youngster Jon Gillies is scuffling this year as he battles back from an injury-plagued 2015-16 season.  The Flames were active on the goalie market last summer and it’s shaping up to be that way again this coming offseason.
  • Arizona center Peter Holland was fined just over $3,600 for an unsuspecting punch to Tampa Bay’s Ondrej Palat, the Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter link). The incident occurred on Saturday night and the fine represents the maximum allowable under the CBA.
  • San Jose’s Patrick Marleau had quite the third period yesterday. He became only the 12th player in NHL history to score four goals in a single period and was the first to do in nearly 20 years (Mario Lemieux matched that feat on January 26, 1997 against Montreal).  As CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz notes, Marleau was dropped down a line prior to the third and clearly the move paid immediate dividends.  After a quiet start to the year, Marleau has 16 goals on the season and sits three away from 500 for his career.

Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class

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As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.

Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.

While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P

You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.

Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P

Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.

Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P

Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?

Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA

The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.

Snapshots: Oilers, Staal, Hedman

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening

  • The Edmonton Oilers have recalled forward Anton Lander from the Bakersfield Condors today. Sportsnet’s Mark Spector speculates that the move means Jujhar Khaira may be out for longer than initially thought. Khaira suffered an upper body injury yesterday in the first period against the Florida Panthers. Lander’s callup was inevitable given how he’s lighting up the AHL. Lander has 14G and 13A in only 16 games—almost a two points per game pace. Those stats have not translated at the NHL level, however, with Lander scoring only 1G and 3A in 20 games.
  • New York Rangers defenseman Marc Staal may be nearing a return. According to the Newsday’s Steve Zipay, coach Alain Vigneault did not rule out Staal returning soon, and that Vigneault will play Staal as soon as he is healthy. Staal is recovering from concussion symptoms that kept him out since January 3rd. He’s been skating with the team for the past week to keep up conditioning and monitor his progress.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman still needs more time before returning to action, reports James O’Brien of NBCSports. Hedman misses his third straight game tonight with the vague “illness” tag. The Lighting are three points back of a playoff spot, but do not face a conference opponent until they visit the Florida Panthers next Thursday. Despite missing games, Hedman remains 2nd in scoring among defenseman with 7G and 31A in 44 games. The Lightning desperately need his production, so any absences indicate a more severe issue than initially thought.

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