Red Wings Notes: The Reality In Hockeytown
Watching from the other bench, Mike Babcock couldn’t help but smile. After a 4-0 victory over his former team in Detroit, it couldn’t be more obvious that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings are on completely different trajectories. The Leafs, once the bottom feeder of the Eastern Conference, is rising like a phoenix out of the ashes. And the Red Wings? Once the darling of the league, they now sit where the Leafs called home for several seasons.
Why? There are opinions everywhere and they vary from writer to writer. But here are a few thoughts:
- The Detroit News’ Bob Wojnowski writes that general manager Ken Holland has quite the mess to fix in Detroit. Though the Wings move into their sparkling new home next season, the product could sour what should be a happy housewarming. Wojo weighs the usual: how did they get here, what could Holland do to make it better, and what’s the reality behind all of it. Wojnowski quotes Holland as saying that he “can’t make three blockbuster trades” to suddenly make the team better. But it’s interesting because the current predicament faced by Detroit is because of Holland. From overvaluing players to handing out terrible contracts for long terms, Wojo points out that Holland’s rebuilding on the fly mantra has failed.
- That takes us to Winging It In Motown, where blogger J.J. From Kansas analyzes Holland-speak and what it could possibly mean. First, he points out Holland’s notion that rebuilds take 8-10 years took a hit after realizing that the majority of Red Wings fans recognize such a rebuild is necessary to reclaim the franchise’s once proud status as a contender. What he sees interesting is that Holland changed his tune a bit, showing that in Wojo’s aforementioned piece, Holland turns up the rebuilding timeline to just 5-6 years of pain. The reason? From J.J.:
If Holland knows he has to bring on the pain of risking constructive losing to end the pain of pointless losing, it’s in his best interests to sell it as well as he can. Honestly, I’m a little shocked he didn’t sell it as a 3-4 year plan instead.
- In one final piece from outside of Detroit, Craig Custance gives a non-partisan view of the Red Wings and the grade book isn’t kind. Custance writes that the Red Wings are deserving of a C-, and pens that “injuries, disarray on defense and the regression of Petr Mrazek” have gotten the Wings to where they are. He lists Detroit as sellers and lists Thomas Vanek and Brendan Smith as bargaining chips for rebuilding.
Between all three pieces, it’s obvious that change is coming in Detroit. The only question remaining is how quickly can the Wings return to the top?
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Marchand, Julien, Toronto
Brad Marchand has avoided a suspension for his “dangerous trip” of Detroit Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall in a recent game between the two clubs, the NHL Department of Player Safety has announced. Instead the pesky forward was assessed a $10,000 fine, the maximum allowed under terms of the CBA.
Given his history with the DoPS – he’s been suspended four times overall in his career and on three separate occasions since the start of the 2014-15 campaign – it seemed likely Marchand would be suspended. However, the fact Kronwall showed no apparent ill-effects from the incident may have saved the Bruins leading scorer from that outcome. Ultimately, not losing Marchand for any length is certainly great news for a Boston club fighting desperately for a postseason berth.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- In an ESPN Insider piece (subscription required), Rob Vollman makes an argument utilizing analytics for the Boston Bruins to refrain from terminating embattled head coach Claude Julien. Vollman compares the season-to-date performance of Boston to that of the New York Islanders, who dismissed head coach Jack Capuano recently. On the surface, the two are quite similar but an analysis of shot-based metrics reveal a different outcome. The Bruins have the league’s best shot attempt differential with a plus-488 while the Islanders were a minus-293 at the time of Capuano’s firing. He also compares the career accomplishments of the two coaches, and again Julien holds a decided advantage. Ultimately Vollman concludes it would be foolish to let Julien go. While the scribe makes a compelling case, it is known every coach has a shelf life and Julien is in his 10th season as the head man in Boston. If Bruins management concludes the bench boss has lost his team, or that his message simply isn’t getting through anymore, it may be best to move on.
- Craig Custance, also of ESPN, believes the time is now for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the team’s management to add experienced talent to take advantage of the young guns currently on ELC’s. Custance compares the current Leafs roster with that of the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks. That happened to be the year both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane debuted in the NHL. As Custance points out, even with the two talented young superstars leading the way, it wasn’t until Chicago added Brian Campbell (2008) and Marian Hossa (2009) did the team ultimately develop into a Stanley Cup contender. He maintains that the addition of Campbell helped turn the team’s defense corps into a quicker, more efficient puck-moving unit. Hossa, Custance adds, showed the team’s young stars how important it is to play smart, two-way hockey. The scribe suggests the Leafs should pursue a similar strategy and while there may be no player available comparable to Hossa, Kevin Shattenkirk could certainly fill the role for Toronto that Campbell did for Chicago. Shattenkirk might well be available via trade, though unless Toronto was able to ink the mobile defender to a contract extension, it would qualify as a risk to sacrifice the assets necessary to convince St. Louis to strike a deal.
Allen’s Latest: All Star Game, Detroit’s Youth, Top 25 Of All Time
USA Today’s Kevin Allen wonders if the NHL has found the right formula for the All-Star game. A struggle for many years to make a dent in ratings or generate interest, Allen writes that last year’s shift to a division specific, three-on-three battle was a shot in the arm for the sport and gave NBC its highest ratings for an All-Star game since they signed on with the NHL for coverage. Players also bought into the format, as evidenced by a quote from NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood recalled that one player said, “‘I want to be out there. I’m so mad that I’m leaving this building and not playing to win this event.” Flood felt that was “cool” and it showed a turnaround in the perception of the All-Star Game.
More from Allen:
- Though Detroit is having a rough season, the youth carrying the team has been a positive sign. Allen writes that the production from “kids” Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Jared Coreau has gone a long way in breathing some life into what’s been a stale season in Hockeytown. It also shows that Detroit has continued to draft talent that can produce at the NHL level. Though the playoffs could be missed, a silver lining is certainly the development and contribution from the younger players. Allen notes that while the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, it’s been the emergence of Mantha and Athanasiou that have given Detroit an uptick in scoring. More interesting, will be if the Red Wings continue to rely on their youth, with a roster and philosophy that always seem to favor veterans.
- Allen also lists his top 25 of all time and his #1 and #2 are not shocking with Gordie Howe narrowly edging Wayne Gretzky. Bobby Orr, Mario Lemieux, and Maurice Richard round out Allen’s top five.
Evening Snapshots: Ducks, Vanek, Rielly
News and notes from around the NHL this evening:
- The Anaheim Ducks recalled center Kalle Kossila from the San Diego Gulls today. The Franco-Finnish is having a great year in the AHL, scoring 9G and 18A in 33 games. The Ducks signed Kossila out of the NCAA last spring, but kept him in the AHL until now. Kossila was born in France but moved to Finland at an early age.
- Detroit Red Wings forward Thomas Vanek returns to action tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Vanek suffered a lower body injury on Sunday against the New York Rangers, and missed Detroit’s next game against the Boston Bruins. To make room Detroit scratched forward Drew Miller. Vanek has been the lone bright spot on a disappointing Detroit team this year. The Austrian forward is second in team scoring with 12G and 19A in 36 games. That is great production from a forward making only $2.6MM this year. Vanek has a chance to earn much more this summer as he enters free agency at the end of this season. And because of his pending UFA status—coupled with Detroit presumably not making the playoffs—Vanek could be a top trade candidate at the NHL trade deadline.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to be without defenseman Morgan Rielly, reports the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran. Rielly did not travel with the team to Detroit, and is not expected to be with the team tomorrow night in Philadelphia against the Flyers. Rielly hasn’t played since suffering a lower body injury on January 17th against the Buffalo Sabres. In that time, Toronto is 1-1-0-1, but did shut out the Calgary Flames on Monday 4-0. With the Atlantic Division playoff spots up for grabs, the Maple Leafs need Rielly back as soon as possible.
Trade Candidates: Thomas Vanek
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
The Detroit Red Wings are staring at the possibility of trading assets away instead of buying them up. After decades of acquiring top end talent, the Red Wings are now considering their options once the trade deadline hits. Will they deal talent away for prospects and picks? Or will they hold onto everyone, trying for a 26th consecutive playoff appearance? One player who could yield quite the return is Thomas Vanek.
Contract
One year, $2.6MM – Will be a UFA in July
2016-17
After a disappointing tenure in Minnesota, Vanek was cut loose via a buyout. The Red Wings signed him to a one-year deal worth $2.6MM, hoping that Vanek would show flashes of the player who had a nose for the net. So far, the gamble paid off. Vanek has been Detroit’s best forward all season, and has been one of the best scoring threats for the team–especially one struggling mightily on the power play. The Red Wings are reportedly on the fence about what to do–re-sign Vanek or trade him while his stock is high. Vanek is currently out, though he’s day-to-day with a lower body injury.
Season Stats
36 games: 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points. 51.1 CF%, +6, 14:54 ATOI.
Potential Suitors
The Red Wings’ decision making won’t be cemented until they reach their bye-week, which is only a week before the actual deadline. Vanek comes at a great price, instead of having a bloated contract, an issue with many players on the Detroit roster. What Vanek could garner from another team depends on where he goes and how the market reacts with other players.
Chicago, who kicked the tires on Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, would seem to be the best landing place for Vanek. Though Chicago is steadfast in holding onto its’ first round pick due to hosting the draft, there are a number of prospects in the system that could help Detroit, especially defensively. They could also offer future first round picks–along with prospects–to give them a solid scoring punch at left wing. Though the Hawks are always in a tight spot with the cap, Stan Bowman is not one to shy away for a chance at the Cup.
The Ottawa Senators are also an option as they’re searching for scoring. Currently sitting second in the Atlantic, the Sens could use another player with a scoring touch to add scoring depth in the conference that many believe will win a Cup again. The Sens might be willing to give up a first round pick for a scorer, as reported by TSN’s Frank Seravalli.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Again, everything depends on where the Wings sit in the standings. Ken Holland is notorious for “liking his team” or stating that players returning from injury are like adding at the trade deadline. Holland will push for the playoffs as long as the team plays its way to a spot, but with just a 13% chance of making the playoffs, Vanek may find himself in another jersey when the calendar turns to March.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rumor Roundup: Hanzel, Jurco, Parity
News and notes from the NHL’s rumor mill:
- According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Arizona Coyotes offered the Montreal Canadiens pending UFA Martin Hanzal in exchange for Michael McCarron, a 1st round draft pick, and a conditional draft pick. That is a steep price to pay for a player with only 10G and 8A in 39 games. Hanzal hasn’t done anything lately to help the Coyotes, either—he’s scored in only two games this month. Unfortunately for teams looking at Hanzal, the Coyotes’ asking price is in line with previous deals for Hanzal-like players. Andrew Ladd returned a prospect (Marko Dano) and a first and third round draft pick, while Eric Staal returned a prospect (Aleksi Saarela) and two second round draft picks. Both had similar production and similar ages to Hanzal at the deadline last year. That first round pick could turn into a second round pick if Hanzel continues to underproduce, but the Coyotes are not out the realm of reasonability right now.
- According to the Detroit Free Press’s Helene St. James today, Tomas Jurco had asked the Detroit Red Wings for a trade this season. Jurco has sat as a healthy scratch for all but 11 games this season, and has failed to register a point in those games. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has also heard that Jurco wants out, and one can see why. Sometimes a player has no room in a given organization, and no player wants to sit idly by at any point in his career. Teams are usually good about accommodating these requests—like when the Maple Leafs traded Peter Holland to the Arizona Coyotes for a conditional seventh round draft pick—but nothing is guaranteed. The problem for most teams is that the player usually has untapped potential and they want to hold on to that player as long as they can.
- TSN’s Darren Dreger said on TSN 1040 Vancouver today that the trade market is paralyzed by parity. Because so many teams are within a few points of a playoff spot, those teams are wary of trading away assets. Part of that parity stems from the so-called loser point, where many games end up becoming three point games (2 for a win, 1 for the OT/SO loss). The parity may be an illusion however. Three years ago Elliotte Friedman, then with the CBC, wrote that of the 32 teams 4 points or more back of a playoff spot, only 3 teams managed to make the playoffs.
Roster Notes: January 23, 2017
- For the second straight game, Blues starting goaltender Jake Allen will be a healthy scratch. Tom Timmerman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that backup Carter Hutton will get the start tomorrow night after third-stringer Pheonix Copley started last game; Copley will back up Hutton. Allen is scheduled to start on Thursday, after what coach Ken Hitchcock called a week of “tech workload.” Allen has really struggled this season, with his SV% dropping below 0.900 after posting a 0.920 in 47 games last season. Allen begins a four-year, $17.4MM contract extension next season.
- Staying in the Central Division, the Dallas Stars announced via Twitter that Radek Faksa will miss the next two games with a lower-body injury and superstar center Tyler Seguin is questionable for tomorrow’s game with an illness. Seguin has quietly had a good season so far, with 45 points in 48 games. Meanwhile, Faksa has improved his point totals in his sophomore season with 22 points in 48 games, after posting 12 points in 45 games in his rookie year.
- A day after clearing waivers, Drew Miller has been loaned to the Grand Rapids Griffins. However, as Dana Wakiji of DetroitRedWings.com writes, Miller could be back up with the big club quickly because of recent injuries to Dylan Larkin and Thomas Vanek. Miller has has five goals and an assist in 34 games with the Red Wings, after re-signing him to a one-year, $1.025MM contract in July.
- The San Jose Sharks will get rookie Timo Meier back after missing two games with an upper-body injury. The 2015 ninth-0verall pick will play with Melker Karlsson and Tommy Wingels on the Sharks’ fourth line, according to Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News. Meier has two goals and four points in 15 games with the Sharks, and 15 points in 17 game with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL. Meanwhile Tomas Hertl is travelling with the team but will not play tomorrow night.
Vanek, Larkin Out With Injuries
With two key divisional games coming up this week, the Detroit Red Wings will be without a pair of their top offensive weapons. According to Red Wings beat writer Ted Kulfan, Detroit GM Ken Holland has announced that both Thomas Vanek (lower-body) and Dylan Larkin (upper-body) are struggling with injuries and are considered day-to-day. Both forwards are staying home from the team’s trip to Boston for a Tuesday night game against the Bruins, while Larkin has already been ruled out of the return to Joe Lewis Arena to host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday as well.
Vanek was hurt in the second period of last night’s 1-0 overtime loss to the New York Rangers and did not return, missing more than half of the contest. However, head coach Jeff Blashill said after the game that he did not think Vanek’s injury was serious, which may lend some hope to Vanek being back for Wednesday night’s game. On the other hand, Larkin played a full game last night, seemingly without incident, and he and linemates Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar led all forwards in ice time. Yet, Larkin has been ruled out for the next two games, meaning he won’t skate with the Red Wings for over a week as a result of the upcoming All-Star weekend.
The loss of their two leading goal-scorers comes at a tough time for the Red Wings. Things appeared to finally be coming together last week with three big wins in a row: a rout of the Pittsburgh Penguins, a shutout of the Montreal Canadiens, and a shocking comeback against the Boston Bruins. However, Detroit has been unable to close out back-to-back games in overtime against the Buffalo Sabres and New York Rangers and still find themselves sitting in sixth place in the Atlantic Division, just a point ahead of Buffalo and the Tampa Bay Lightning. It may be difficult for the Red Wings to keep picking up points with free agent surprise Vanek and sophomore stud Larkin out of the lineup as they go up against the desperate Bruins and upstart Maple Leafs. Detroit is 23rd in scoring and dead last on the power play as it is, set to face Boston’s 10th-ranked defense and second-best penalty kill and Toronto’s 4th-ranked penalty kill and high-flying offense. Two divisional losses would certainly put a damper on the recent comeback attempt and could send the team into All-Star weekend on a sour note. If other forwards can’t step up and score some goals over the next couple of games (or longer), the Red Wings could be back in the basement of the division before they know it.
Snapshots: Tropp, Kruger, Blue Jackets
Just a day after bringing him up, the Anaheim Ducks have decides that Corey Tropp will head back to San Diego and the AHL. As Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports, the journeyman winger will head back to the AHL without a taste of NHL action. As mentioned yesterday when he was called up, Tropp hasn’t gotten a crack at the NHL level in more than two seasons, despite establishing himself as a regular on the Columbus Blue Jackets from 2013-15. The 27-year old Tropp is having a fantastic season for the San Diego Gulls, with 29 points in 32 games.
- While the Blackhawks are starting the rumor mill early this year with their reported interest in a pair of Red Wings, they might be getting some help back off the injured list sooner than later. Tracey Myers of CSN Chicago reports today that Marcus Kruger is “pretty close” and will hopefully return this week before the All-Star break. Injured on December 30th, Kruger was originally expected to miss only three weeks but faced a setback that has kept him out a bit longer. The Hawks miss his defensive presence and ability on the penalty kill, and will welcome him back with open arms. The team is now just two points back of the Minnesota Wild for first place in the Central division, but have played 48 games already – three more than the Wild. Firmly entrenched in a playoff spot – the team sits 12 points ahead of the third place Nashville Predators – the Blackhawks will be looking to add depth to their roster for another playoff run.
- Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that both David Savard and Markus Nutivaara are out for the Blue Jackets’ game tonight against the Ottawa Senators. Dalton Prout and Scott Harrington will figure in as the bottom pair. The team is being very hush-hush on Savard’s injury, only saying it occurred in Thursday’s game when he left in the third period. Quietly, Savard is having another excellent season for Columbus, logging over 21 minutes a night, second on the team behind Seth Jones. The 26-year old is locked up long-term on a very tidy contract, earning $4.25MM annually until 2020-21. While he doesn’t get the press that Jones or Zach Werenski get, he’s an integral part of a group of young defenders (26 and under) that Columbus will ride for the next number of years.
Snapshots: Kronwall, Miller, Condra
News and notes from around the NHL this morning:
- Niklas Kronwall returns to the Detroit Red Wings lineup today for a game against the New York Rangers. Kronwall hasn’t played since January 4th due to a groin injury. Alexey Marchenko is the corresponding healthy scratch today. Kronwall has struggled points-wise this season, scoring 0G and 3A in 25 games. The Red Wings are five points out of a playoff spot with three games in hand, so any positive addition should excite Detroit fans and management alike.
- To make room for Kronwall, the Detroit Red Wings placed forward Drew Miller on waivers, reports the Macomb Daily’s Chuck Pleiness. As Helene St. James points out, the Red Wings are already at the 23-man roster maximum. Somebody needed to go to make room for Kronwall. Miller has 5G and 1A in 34 games this season, and was playing just over ten minutes a night. Expect Miller to return if another Detroit player goes down with injury.
- Tampa Bay Lightning forward Erik Condra cleared waivers today, notes Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Condra has no points in 10 games this season, and was often a healthy scratch for the Lightning. The veteran forward hasn’t found his footing this year, and will likely remain in the AHL until the Lightning need an injury replacement. Condra is in the second year of a three-year, $1.25MM a year contract.