Thomas Vanek & The Offense-Only Perception
In a few months, some lucky team in the NHL will get the chance to sign a two-time 40-goal scorer coming off an excellent offensive season. He put up the third most points by any free agent forward despite making just $2MM this season. In his first taste of playoff action since 2015, he scored two points and helped his team to an overtime victory while playing 16:28. That team will likely get a chance to sign him to an extremely short-term deal with little risk involved. And then, going off of recent history, that team will say “no thanks” and pass.
That player is Thomas Vanek, who was bought out in June of 2016 because of a $6.5MM cap hit, and has been overlooked ever since. In the summer of 2016 Vanek was coming off his 11th consecutive 40+ point season, but ended up signing a one-year deal with the Detroit Red Wings for just $2.6MM. That was only $100K more than the salary handed to each of Matt Martin and Joe Colborne, who both signed for at least two seasons. It substantially shorter and cheaper than the deal Jamie McGinn signed, he of 167 career points and exactly zero 40+ point seasons (a mark he still has failed to eclipse). Darren Helm earned a five-year deal, each of which would pay him close to $4MM, after a 26-point season.
The problem with Vanek, as some would explain, was that he was a perimeter player. He didn’t play defense, work hard enough or contribute in different ways. He was one dimensional. Well, who among the group above is two dimensional? Those four combined for 38 points in 2016-17. Vanek scored 48 all by himself.
That’s right, his 12th straight 40+ season was to follow after his $2.6MM contract, even with a trade midseason to shake things up. Vanek would net the Detroit Red Wings a third-round pick at the deadline, a neat little asset for paying a relatively paltry sum.
But then, when free agency rolled around again in 2017 Vanek would have to wait. Even with his 48 points, and obvious skills on the powerplay and in the shootout, he would wait all the way until the Vancouver Canucks finally snatched him up in September. You’d think that proving himself still capable would improve the offers, but Vancouver would sign him for just $2MM this time around. The deal came with no performance bonuses, likely because who would doubt he’d hit them at this point.
Vanek once again was up to the task, and found instant chemistry with Canucks rookie phenom Brock Boeser. This time, he’d register 41 points by the time the trade deadline came around—his 13th consecutive 40+ if we’re still counting—and earning the Canucks a shiny young Tyler Motte. The now 34-year old Vanek would put up 15 points in 19 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets down the stretch, helping them secure their playoff position.
When this July rolls around, Vanek will be an unrestricted free agent once again. He’ll be entering the summer as the third-highest scoring free agent forward on the market, behind only John Tavares and David Perron—that’s right, ahead of players like Evander Kane, James van Riemsdyk, James Neal, and Paul Stastny—and he still might come with very little risk.
He’s obviously not a player that you’d hand out a long-term deal to, not anymore at least. But when one dimensional defense-only players are getting hefty contracts, teams need to start realizing that the opposite is also valuable. Even if he is a coach’s nightmare—which he’s never been described as by anyone other than outside observers—in the right situations he’s still extremely effective. Any team, even a rebuilding one, should be looking at him as an undervalued asset if his price remains low like the last two offseasons. You can bet there will be a team that wants him at the trade deadline again next year—especially if he’s in the midst of #14.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
No Suspensions Incoming For Josh Anderson, Tom Wilson
According to the Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan, neither Josh Anderson or Tom Wilson will be suspended for their illegal checks in last night’s Washington Capitals-Columbus Blue Jackets game. Anderson received a five-minute major and game misconduct for a hit on Michal Kempny, during which the Capitals’ Evgeny Kuznetsov scored twice. Wilson was given a two-minute charging penalty for a hit on Alexander Wennberg, who is listed as doubtful for the next game.
Khurshudyan reports that the league “could not determine whether or not Wennberg’s head was the main point of contact” given the camera angles, meaning Wilson will not face further discipline. That comes on a busy day for the Department of Player Safety, who are also dealing with an incident from the Toronto-Boston series.
If Wennberg can’t go, it is a big hit for the Blue Jackets who clawed back to win game 1 in overtime. Already relatively thin at center, the team would also need to replace him on both the powerplay and penalty kill. Wennberg scored the first Blue Jackets goal, but ended up playing just 10:51 after leaving early in the third.
Having Wilson escape without suspension is also huge news for the Capitals, who rely on him to give some physical and defensive balance to their scoring lines. Playing 18:55 last night, he also led all Washington forwards in penalty kill time. After the game, Wilson told Khurshudyan that he was just trying to finish his check, but sometimes he might have to rethink the hits he lays late in games. “That cost us the game” Wilson said, referencing the then-tying goal that Thomas Vanek scored on the ensuing powerplay.
Poll: Who Will Be Eastern Conference Champions?
Yesterday, we asked who would come out of the next few weeks with the title of Western Conference Champions, and 37% of our readership agreed. The Nashville Predators easily led the poll, with the Colorado Avalanche bringing up the rear with just 3% of the total vote. Interestingly, the vote pegged the Los Angeles Kings as the third-most likely to win, despite finishing the season as the seventh best team in the West.
Will the public perception be the same in the Eastern Conference? We ask you the same thing, who will be champions when the first three rounds have been decided?
Can the Tampa Bay Lightning ride their conference lead all the way to the top? Will the Pittsburgh Penguins reach their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final? Are the Washington Capitals really cursed, or is it finally time for Alex Ovechkin to lift the Cup?
Make sure to leave your reasoning in the comments below, and share the poll on Twitter so you can disagree with even more people.
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Metropolitan Notes: Rangers, Boychuk, Pulock, Ward, Kempny
With the New York Rangers being the first team in almost a year to be looking for a head coach after firing Alain Vigneault Saturday evening, the team has said it will commence with their search immediately. The team must decide whether they are looking for a big name coach, a up-and-coming coach or a coach that is good at working with young players.
The New York Post’s Larry Brooks offers 10 potential candidates to replace Vigneault, leading those suggestions with three collegiate coaches, including the University of Denver’s Jim Montgomery, Boston University’s David Quinn and Union College’s Rick Bennett. He also suggests Toronto Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe of the AHL would be a good fit.
According to Brooks, there are also several veteran NHL coaches available, including Dan Bylsma, Darryl Sutter, Dave Tippett and Patrick Roy.
- Andrew Gross of Newsday reports that veteran defenseman Johnny Boychuk will undergo surgery Monday, but would not reveal what it is for. The 34-year-old defenseman missed quite some time this season, playing in just 58 games this season. He is expected to be 100 percent by June.
- Arthur Staple of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that while little has gone right this year, one bright spot has been the strong finish of rookie defenseman Ryan Pulock. The 23-year-old blueliner finished with 10 goals, most in the NHL for rookie defensemen. His 18:24 of average ice time was second among rookie defensemen behind Boston’s Charlie McAvoy. Staple suggests that his improvement on the defensive end could potentially make him a top-pairing defenseman.
- The Charlotte Observer’s Chip Alexander wonders what will happen to long-time goaltender Cam Ward now that the season is over. The veteran goalie who has spent 13 years with the organization will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and at 34 years old, the team must decide whether they want to bring him back or go in a different direction. Despite taking a backup role this year, Ward still played in 43 games and finished with a 2.78 GAA and a .906 save percentage as he had to fill in for a struggling Scott Darling. Of course, with no general manager in place yet, it might be a while before the team sorts that out.
- After going out a year ago and trading for star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and then being eliminated in the first round, the Washington Capitals have taken the opposite course this year, quietly trading for Michal Kempny from the Chicago Blackhawks. While hardly a headlining defenseman, Kempny has been a good fit with Washington and has changed their defense for the better, according to Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan. Kempny, who was often a healthy scratch for Chicago has filled in as a top-four defenseman and is averaging 16:46 per game. As the team prepares for a matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the playoffs, they hope the improvement of their defense might help them with a long playoff run.
Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Boucher, Ristolainen, Zetterberg, Bertuzzi
There is just one game remaining on the NHL regular season schedule and the league schedulers picked a good one as the Boston Bruins will host the Florida Panthers today in the lone game. While many people thought the game would have significant meaning for the Panthers (Philadelphia’s victory Saturday officially eliminated Florida from the playoffs), it instead has an effect on Boston.
If the Bruins win, they will jump over the Tampa Bay Lightning as the top seed of the Eastern Conference and get home ice advantage in the first three rounds of the playoffs. A win of any kind would give them a matchup with the New Jersey Devils. A loss will pit the Bruins against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team they have struggled with this year. The only known matchup in the Eastern Conference are the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets.
“Let’s face it, we were trying to find our own game and get to where we thought we were at the start of the year, which was definitely a playoff team,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy via NBC Sports Joe Haggerty. “We just didn’t know where we would fit, and the way Tampa got out of the gate, and Toronto for that matter, it was going to be an uphill battle. But here we are. We’re in a position to take it, and that’s a credit to the guys. We’ve worked hard to get here. This wasn’t by accident. We didn’t back in.”
- The Ottawa Senators, who ended up finishing in 30th place this season, must make a decision on their coaching situation. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen writes that Guy Boucher is in a strange situation as he did everything right a year ago at this time and has done little right since. The team’s defense and special teams were atrocious this year and need to get fixed. The question is, will it be Boucher or another coach? Garrioch says that even if Boucher survives, expect changes to the staff as last year is considered unacceptable.
- Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News writes that the Buffalo Sabres need to make sweeping changes to avoid another dismal season next year, but unfortunately, the team has a lot of contracts with term which will be hard to move, so the team will need to be creative in trades. The defense has six players already under contract and few top-four players, citing that Rasmus Ristolainen is considered their No. 1 defenseman and he is no where even close to that. He will have four more years on his contract at $5.4MM AAV and has shown little improvement and isn’t the leader they hoped he would be.
- Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes that Detroit Red Wings’ Henrik Zetterberg must decide whether he wants to keep playing. The 38-year-old still has three years left of the 12-year contract he signed in 2009 at $6.083MM AAV, but back then it was assumed players wouldn’t play the entire contract out. He’s logged over 1,000 and if he chooses to retire, the Red Wings would save $6MM in cap space if the team is able to place him on long-term injured reserve. St. James adds, however, that the veteran might want to come back for one more year as he is just 42 points away from reaching 1,000 points.
- St. James also tweets that the Red Wings have decided not to send forward Tyler Bertuzzi to the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL for their playoff run. They believe Bertuzzi has done enough at the AHL level and want him to hit the gym and get stronger with a full offseason of workouts.
Blue Jackets’ Ian Cole Fined For Dangerous Trip
The Department of Player Safety announced they have fined Columbus Blue Jackets’ defenseman Ian Cole $5,000, the maximum allowed by the CBA, for a dangerous trip on Vancouver’s Brandon Sutter on Saturday between the two teams.
The 29-year-old blueliner was given a two-minute minor for the incident. Cole was suspended for three games back in 2012 for an illegal hit to the head.
Cole was acquired at the trade deadline from the Ottawa Senators after they picked him up from the Pittsburgh Penguins days before. He has fit in nicely to the team’s lineup, but while there are rumors that Columbus has been discussing an extension, there is concern that the Blue Jackets might not be able to afford his pricetag as he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. He has five goals and 15 assists this season.
Columbus Has Key Defensive Decisions To Make This Offseason
The Columbus Blue Jackets are enjoying some of their best defensive depth in team history as they currently have 10 blueliners on their current roster. Not even including the impressive play of their top line of Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, the team has a quality top-six with trade deadline acquisition Ian Cole to pair with David Savard on the second line. The recently extended Markus Nutivaara also makes a quality third pairing with Ryan Murray. Their depth is so great that veteran Jack Johnson finds himself as a healthy scratch lately and can’t seem to break into Columbus lineup on most days.
However, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Blue Jackets’ blueline should look quite different next season and much of those changes will revolve around what the team does with three players in particular, including Johnson, Cole and Murray.
Johnson has had a tough year and is wrapping up a seven-year, $30.5MM contract. The 31-year-old asked for a trade midway through the season as his playing time had dropped this year, but the Blue Jackets found no takers and seems unlikely to return to Columbus considering how little he has been playing of late and now has been a healthy scratch for four straight games.
Cole, who many believed Columbus added as only a trade rental, has made quite a mark on the team’s defense and seems to be a good fit next to the physical Savard and the team is considering bringing him back next season. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen had a hand in drafting him back in 2007 when he was with the St. Louis Blues. According to Portzline, there have been rumors the team has already discussed a contract extension with Cole, but there are questions whether the team can afford him.
As for Murray, the team must make a decision on whether they want to retain the restricted free agent. Murray, who is currently making $2.825MM this year, is an excellent skater and puck mover, but has struggled his entire career with injuries. He’s only played out a full 82-game season once and has never come close after that as 66 games is his next highest. He’s played in just 41 games this year.
If the team signs two of those three players, Columbus should continue to have a strong defensive core in the future.
Markus Nutivaara Signs Four-Year Extension
The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed Markus Nutivaara to a four-year extension, worth an average annual value of $2.7MM. Nutivaara was scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season. The salary breakdown is as follows:
- 2018-19: $2.5MM
- 2019-20: $2.5MM
- 2020-21: $2.5MM
- 2021-22: $3.3MM
Nutivaara, 23, was selected in the seventh round three years ago and has burst onto the scene as a full-time player for the Blue Jackets. Through 59 games this season, he’s recorded 22 points and could see even more ice time in the coming years. With Jack Johnson and Ian Cole likely leaving through free agency, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nutivaara given more responsibility. With Ryan Murray still scheduled to become an RFA and rumored to be included in trade talks in the past, getting Nutivaara under contract was important.
It’s a very nice raise for the left-handed defenseman, but it does buy out one of his unrestricted free agent years. That obviously bumped up the cap hit a bit, but it is still low enough to be an inexpensive deal for the Blue Jackets if Nutivaara continues to develop. He’ll be just 28 when it expires, and could demand another solid contract on the open market.
The Blue Jackets are heading to the playoffs again if they can hold off the last few challengers, and you can bet that Nutivaara will play a larger role this time around. Last season, he played just two games in the postseason and averaged fewer than 12 minutes. Where he’ll slot in this time around isn’t set in stone, but with the way he has been playing lately there’s no way he should see the press box very often.
Eric Robinson Signs With Columbus Blue Jackets
The Columbus Blue Jackets have wasted no time jumping into the college free agent market, signing Princeton University captain Eric Robinson to a two-year entry-level contract. Princeton was eliminated from the NCAA tournament this weekend, meaning the senior captain could turn pro. Robinson will join the Blue Jackets right away, meeting them in Edmonton on Tuesday. The deal is worth an average annual value of $925K, with maximum bonuses according to Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press.
Robinson, 22, couldn’t get his club past Ohio State on Saturday, but completed his senior season with a solid 31 points in 36 games. Though he wasn’t used as the primary offensive weapon on his club, there are some who believe that he can grow into a bigger scoring role in the future. Instead, Robinson was tasked with a two-way role that has prepared him for life at the professional level. His heavy game fits nicely with what the Blue Jackets have built over the last few years, and he could get right into the lineup for them now that Nick Foligno is out for the next few weeks.
Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen had this to say about the young forward:
Eric is a power forward with excellent speed who plays a very reliable two-way game and brings the type of character and leadership we value as an organization. He will join our team for the rest of the regular season and we are excited about his future with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Blue Jackets are likely heading to the playoffs again this season, and Robinson could give them some extra depth during a run towards what will be a brutal Eastern Conference bracket. Right now, the team is scheduled to face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round though that could easily change in the next few days.
Minor Transactions: 03/26/18
As teams around the league continue to snap up their college recruits and add them to the NHL roster, others are just playing out the string hoping for better odds at the draft lottery. Still, the league will continue to make minor transactions right up until the end of the season and we’ll keep track of them all right here. Check back throughout the day to stay up to date.
- After announcing that Nick Foligno will be out for two to four weeks, the Columbus Blue Jackets have recalled Alex Broadhurst from the minor leagues. Broadhurst has yet to make his NHL debut, but leads the Cleveland Monsters in scoring this season with 41 points in 66 games. Foligno will try to get back in time for the playoffs, but in the meantime the Blue Jackets will need to sort out their center position without his help.
- Pheonix Copley is on his way back to the minor leagues, now that Braden Holtby has overcome the minor injury he was dealing with. Copley didn’t get into a game in his short stint, and is still waiting to make his Washington Capitals debut. The 26-year old goaltender could get a chance next season, if the Capitals decide that a new contract for Philipp Grubauer—who is scheduled to be a restricted free agent once again—is too expensive.
- The Calgary Flames have swapped goaltenders, sending David Rittich to the minor leagues while recalling Jon Gillies. The Flames are all but eliminated from postseason contention after losing five in a row, and will have a tough offseason to deal with after trading several future draft picks to try and contend for the Stanley Cup this season.
- Roberto Luongo is healthy for the Florida Panthers, as they have assigned Harri Sateri back to the minor leagues. The Panthers are in action tonight against the New York Islanders, with James Reimer starting in goal.