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Snapshots: Shaw, Flames, Blackhawks

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Facing elimination for the first time this spring, the Montreal Canadiens didn’t need any additional adversity heading into Saturday night’s game. Unfortunately, they’re going to have some.

Forward Andrew Shaw was not at practice and will not be in the lineup for Game 6, according to coach Claude Julien via John Lu of TSN. The team announced he is dealing with an upper-body injury, and is considered day-to-day. Based on this morning’s skate, the Canadiens will dress the following lines tonight:

Max Pacioretty – Phillip Danault – Alexander Radulov
Artturi Lehkonen – Tomas Plekanec – Brendan Gallagher
Alex Galchenyuk – Brian Flynn – Paul Byron
Dwight King – Steve Ott – Michael McCarron

Andrei Markov – Shea Weber
Alexei Emelin – Jeff Petry
Brandon Davidson – Jordie Benn

Carey Price

Shaw has struggled so far in this series. He’s currently pointless, with a -2 rating, seven PIM, and is just 31% in the face-off circle. After scoring 29 points in 68 games in the regular season with a 54% success rate in the dot, it begs the question of how long Shaw has been dealing with this injury. Despite his struggles, he would be a valuable addition should the Canadiens force a seventh game; Shaw has played in three game sevens with the Chicago Blackhawks (2-1 record). He had 35 points in 67 playoff games as a Blackhawk.

  • Over in Calgary, the team packed their bags on Friday. Several notable names are pending free agents, and most of them spoke with the media and expressed a desire to return, per Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Sun. Count Kris Versteeg, Michael Stone, Chad Johnson, Brian Elliott, and Deryk Engelland as interested in staying in Alberta; Dennis Wideman was not there on Friday, a day after being named in a $10.25MM lawsuit. Wideman played just four games down the stretch and none in the playoffs. He won’t be back. Versteeg and Stone both expressed strong interest in returning; both have family in the area. Somewhat more surprising was Elliott, who many believe will not return after his disastrous playoffs (0-3, .880 SV%, 3.89 GAA in four games).
  • As I covered this morning, the Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers today. Since then, a few players have spoken to the media. Per a series of tweets from Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, defenseman Brian Campbell said he would rather retire than sign elsewhere, Trevor van Riemsdyk also hopes to back in Chicago, but isn’t sure what will happen at the expansion draft, and Richard Panik is unsure of his value heading into negotiations and will not play at the World Championships. Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin will be joining USA and Russia, respectively.

“Completely Disappointed” Blackhawks Clean Out Lockers

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Hands up if you predicted the Chicago Blackhawks would be involved in a sweep during the post-season. Now, keep your hand up if you thought it would be them getting swept.

The Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers on Saturday morning after a disappointing end to a promising season. After a 109-point season, the first-seed Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games against the eighth-seed Nashville Predators.

Usually when teams are eliminated, we find out the injuries that key players were dealing with; famously, Patrice Bergeron played in the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals (vs the Blackhawks) with a separated shoulder, cartilage tear in his ribs, and a punctured lung. However, there have been no notable injuries revealed today. Per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, coach Joel Quenneville said that a few “key guys” were dealing with minor injuries, including Artem Anisimov, who was battling limited mobility. At this point, no players will require off-season surgery, according to Mark Lazerus of the Sun-Times.

General Manager Stan Bowman called the early end to his club’s season a “complete failure” compared to their expectations. The sweep “completely overshadowed” the 50-win season; Bowman promised changes would be coming, but did say that Quenneville will be back as head coach, according to Lazerus. However, Hine reports that Quenneville doesn’t foresee any changes to his coaching staff. Bowman promised that he and Quenneville “are going to work together to make sure this never happens again.”

Roster-wise, the Blackhawks have a few notable players up for new contracts: Richard Panik, Michal Kempny, and Scott Darling are all pending free agents. Bowman refused to comment on their statuses while also not commenting on the possibility of any roster moves involving “core” players. Realistically, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are all un-tradable, either due to their importance to the club or the size of their contracts, or both. The one interesting name could be Corey Crawford; while the sweep is not his fault (the Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games), Bowman played coy when asked whether Crawford would be the starting goaltender next season. Per Hine, Bowman replied, “I’m not going to speculate on anything—who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here.”

With the expansion draft upcoming and a few teams looking to move goaltenders, it could be difficult to find a taker for Crawford’s $6MM salary, especially at the likely asking price in a trade. Making that move would clear some significant cap space and allow them to keep Darling, who appears to be ready to take on a starting job. It would be the blockbuster of the summer. But as Bowman told Scott Powers of The Athletic, “We didn’t score any goals. It’s hard to win games when you get shutout.”

No matter what happens, it will be a long summer for a team that was expecting a long spring.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya

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Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.

  • Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
  • Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.

Chicago Blackhawks Recall Baun, Motte, Gustafsson From AHL

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The Chicago Blackhawks have brought up some “Black Aces”, recalling Kyle Baun, Tyler Motte and Erik Gustafsson from the AHL’s Rockford IceHogs. None of the three are expected to play in the important game four match against the Nashville Predators.

In the playoffs every year, teams recall several AHL players after their season ends in order to fill out the practice facility and get a taste of what playoff hockey preparation is all about. These players are dubbed “Black Aces”—a term that goes back to the forties and Eddie Shore—are the players who could step into an NHL lineup if needed on an emergency basis. It’s often used as a reward for a workman-like season at the AHL, or for young players who will make an impact at the highest level soon.

For the Hawks, these three represent both types. Baun is an undrafted 24-year old forward out of Colgate University, who scored the second most points on the last place IceHogs this season. His 34 points were a solid follow-up to a very disappointing rookie season last year. Gustafsson is a former fourth-round pick who showed off some of his offensive upside this year, tallying 30 points in 68 games from the blue line. He played 41 games with the Blackhawks last season, and has been in professional hockey since he was 18.

Motte on the other hand is just 22 and split this season between the Blackhawks and IceHogs, but had trouble in the bottom-six role he’ll likely have to embrace. The offensive explosion he experienced as a junior at the University of Michigan—56 points in 38 games and a top-10 finish for the Hobey Baker—hasn’t followed him to the professional ranks, and he’ll have to adjust his style to contribute more at both ends of the rink before getting another chance.

Evening Snapshots: Hartman, Kase, Bonino, Werenski

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To the surprise of many, Chicago Blackhawks forward Ryan Hartman will not face any supplemental punishment from the NHL after receiving a game misconduct in Game Two of the ’Hawk’s first-round series against the Nashville Predators. Hartman was tossed near the end of the game on Saturday night after checking Predators winger Craig Smith, a fully legal hit, but then then appearing to punch or cross-check Smith in the face while he was down, which is obviously not so legal.

Hartman’s motives were clear: the Blackhawks were down 5-0 with just over a minute to go and about to fall into an 0-2 hole as the top seed in the Western Conference. Hartman was frustrated with the circumstances, as his teammates surely were as well, but Hartman’s actions were an unacceptable way of exercising that frustration. However, NHL Player Safety deemed that it was not bad enough to warrant a fine or suspension and Hartman will be back in the Chicago lineup tomorrow for Game Three as the Blackhawks grasp for some semblance of hope against a suddenly dominant Nashville squad.

  • Ondrej Kase will also be one the ice tomorrow for some Western Conference playoff action, or at least for morning skate. The Anaheim Ducks announced that they had recalled the young forward from the AHL’s San Diego Gulls and that he will join the team ahead of their Game Three contest in Calgary. The Czech left winger skated in 53 games with the Ducks in 2016-17 and recorded five goals and ten assists. There is no word yet on whether or not Kase’s recall was the result of any injury concerns among the Anaheim forwards or if they simply wanted to add another depth option up front, seeing as Jared Boll was the only extra forward for the first two games of the season.
  • Both Nick Bonino and Zach Werenski avoided potentially serious injuries Sunday night when the Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets squared off in Game Three. Both players took pucks to the face early on in the game, but no long-term harm appears to have occurred. Bonino was struck right in the jaw and immediately dropped his stick and gloves and skated to the bench and down the tunnel. The initial thought was a broken jaw, but Bonino returned to the ice not much later with a jaw guard as the only notable change to his appearance. Werenski was not as lucky; the young defenseman took his shot square in the face and dropped to the ice for nearly 30 seconds (while the Penguins scored a goal). When Werenski finally got up and skated away, he left a trail of blood in his wake. Werenski returned later in the game with stitches on his face where a large cut once was and wore a full cage for the remainder of the game. Werenski also saw a major drop-off in ice time for the rest of the game and did not take a single shift in overtime, presumably due to the swelling around his eye. The Penguins went on to win 5-4 in OT.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

Morning Notes: Flames Burn Out, Toronto’s Unlikely Hero, Looking Ahead

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Saturday April 15th was a riveting evening of hockey for any fan of the sport. The Blackhawks were dominated 5-0 by the Predators in Game 2, but the other three games were all nail-biters. The Flames looked to take the lead after climbing out of a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd period, but the call on the ice of goalie interference against John Gibson kept the game tied. The Ducks would go on to get a bizarre ricochet goal from the stick of Ryan Getzlaf with just 4:46 remaining in regulation to secure an ugly win, and go up 2-0 in the series.

  • The Leafs’ Kasperi Kapanen has not been in the spotlight – the likes of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews have been so phenomenal that he is easily forgotten in the mix. The promising young crafty forward was the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel deal, which until now, had undoubtedly looked to favor the Penguins. Serving 4th-line duty, the forward had only scored one goal in his 8 games up with big squad this season. In the second overtime of Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Capitals, the forward crept in to the back post as Brian Boyle used his lanky frame to fool the netminder into sealing the near post in anticipation. The result was a gorgeous finish to a game where an unlikely hero was desperately needed. If the forward can build on this huge goal, perhaps he can become an X-factor in a series where they are the underdogs. He seems to be confident in the team’s chances.
  • The Senators would not go down quietly. Down 2 goals through 40 minutes, the squad rallied to tie the game with tallies from Chris Wideman and Derick Brassard. As mentioned in an earlier post, Chara’s late regulation delay-of-game penalty proved quite costly, as the Senators capitalized on the powerplay’s momentum and ended the overtime quickly. Dion Phaneuf hammered one home after the team had hit two posts previously in quick succession. The series has been incredibly tight, but surely Bruins fans will lament the lost opportunity, especially in light of their badly bruised defensive squad.
  • Four games will take place this Sunday. The Wild will try to avoid going down 3-0 in hostile territory, the Blue Jackets will hope to dodge a similar fate with cannons firing, and the Sharks and Rangers look to go up at home after splitting the first two on the road.

Potential Suspensions: Matt Calvert Edition

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The Columbus Blue Jackets may be down a player going forward in this year’s NHL playoffs. During last night’s Columbus Blue Jackets – Pittsburgh Penguins game 2 playoff match, Columbus forward Matt Calvert crosschecked an unsuspecting Pittsburgh forward Tom Kuhnhackl that should warrant league attention. Below we analyze the situation and past NHL playoff suspensions.

With less than a minute to go in the 4-1 Columbus loss, Calvert skated up to Kuhnhackl from behind and crosschecked him across the back/neck area—breaking his stick in the process—before turning around and shoving him in the face. (Video link). It looked like a deliberate cheap shot to the head area that would concern the Department of Player Safety.

Despite the hit’s optics, ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that he doesn’t think the NHL will suspend Calvert. The Columbus Dispatch’s Aaron Portzline corroborates, stating that his sense is that Calvert avoids a suspension. Pierre LeBrun thinks that the Department of Player Safety is concerned that the stick-breaking aspect of the play makes the play seem much worse, given that hockey sticks are prone to break easily.

If Calvert avoids a suspension, it will reiterate the League’s position that playoff games are more important than regular season games. It will also highlight a growing concern that the Department of Player Safety issues punishments haphazardly, and without any real consistency. As Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News points out, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen received three games for a mistimed hit on Pittsburgh forward Jake Guentzel. The League has always been criticized for its inconsistency in handing out punishments, and if Calvert avoids a suspension that sentiment will only grow. Anything less than a suspension will also reignite the sentiment that the League governs by a different rule book during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Last season the NHL issues four suspensions during the 2015-16 NHL playoffs that directly affected future playoff games. Three suspensions were for one game each, and one was for three games.

The NHL suspended Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Pierre-Edouard Bellemare one game for a hit on Washington Capitals defenseman Dmitry Orlov (video link). Bellemare hit Orlov from behind a few feet from the boards, causing Orlov to crash headfirst into the boards.

Next, the NHL suspended Chicago Blackhawks forward Andrew Shaw one game for using a homophobic slur. He directed the slur to an on-ice official while sitting in the penalty box.

The NHL then issued its biggest suspension of that year’s postseason by suspending Washington Capitals defenseman Brooks Orpik three games for a late hit to the head of Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Olli Maatta (video link).

Finally, the NHL issued its last suspension to Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang, giving him one game for his late hit to the head of Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson (video link).

All the issued suspensions involving physical hits involved hits to the head. The NHL did not issue any suspensions for stick infractions. If the NHL was concerned with a play’s optics, it would issue Matt Calvert at least a one-game suspension. However, if the League has a strict standard when it comes to playoff suspensions, do not be surprised if Calvert walks away with just a lighter wallet.

Playoff Notes: Blackhawks-Predators, Matthews, McDavid

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Game one of the playoff series between Nashville and Chicago certainly didn’t play out how many expected. Not only did the Predators steal a game in Chicago, they managed to shut out one of the most potent offenses. The Chicago Tribune’s Steve Rosenbloom “dares” the Predators to try and play a similar game against the Blackhawks in Game two. Rosenbloom writes that the Preds played “old-time” hockey which saw a vintage style of play from the 90’s: get a goal and sit on the lead. Rosenbloom goes on, adding that the Hawks didn’t take advantage of several gifts from Nashville while also giving Preds netminder Pekka Rinne too easy of a job Thursday evening.

  • Meanwhile, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that while it shocked many, those in the Nashville locker room never doubted for a second that they could compete with their Central division rival. Vingan writes that the season series was much closer than people think, and that for the Preds to head home up 2-0, Rinne must be “sensational” like he was in the first game while Nashville must sustain the aggressiveness that made them a higher scoring team in the regular season. Nashville, Vingan adds, must not allow Chicago to dominate play as they did in the final two periods.
  • Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the league is monitoring the ratings for the games involving young superstars Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood believes that a long playoff run would only make McDavid and Matthews more likely to be on NBC next season. Flood added that NBC responded to the hype of both players, flexing in games with the young stars to guarantee them air time. The next three games for both players’ teams will be featured on the NBC Sports Network, instead of the USA network. Wyshynski advises hockey fans eager to see more of McDavid and Matthews should tune in to those games.

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