With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders.
The opening game of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will feature two teams on very different paths heading into the postseason. In this rematch of a 2019 Eastern Conference Second Round series, the Hurricanes and Islanders both have something to prove.
And, like that 2019 matchup which had just four total goals through its first two games, most would expect this series to be the most defensively inclined of the first round. With the Hurricanes struggling to put pucks in the net without their two best goal-scorers, though, will they be able to break through Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders’ ace in the hole, and avoid what could be one of the biggest upsets of the postseason?
Regular Season Performance
Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
NY Islanders: 42-31-9, 93 points, +21 goal differential
Head-To-Head
October 28, 2022: NY Islanders 6, Carolina 2
December 10, 2022: Carolina 3, NY Islanders 0
January 21, 2023: Carolina 5, NY Islanders 2
April 2, 2023: NY Islanders 1, Carolina 2
Carolina takes the season series 3-1
Team Storylines
The question surrounding the Hurricanes is clear-cut: they’ll likely dominate the possession game in this series, but can they finish enough chances to win four out of seven games?
Goal-scoring has been the disease that’s plagued Carolina in playoffs past. In last year’s second-round elimination at the hands of the New York Rangers, Carolina only scored more than two goals in a game once, a 3-1 win in Game 5.
General manager Don Waddell made a pointed acquisition last summer to address the recurring concern by plucking Max Pacioretty away from the Vegas Golden Knights in a cap-dump move. Needless to say, it didn’t work out as planned, with back-to-back Achilles tears ending Pacioretty’s season and limiting him to just five games in a Carolina uniform.
With Andrei Svechnikov now out of the lineup, Carolina’s finishing touch has evaporated. Sebastian Aho’s pulled his weight with 36 goals this year, and Martin Necas’ career year has been a life-saving measure for the division champs. More will be needed out of support players like Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis, though, if Carolina wants to avoid an upset.
It’s an upset that more and more are surmising about publically, and for good reason. Sorokin has a legitimate claim to this year’s Vezina Trophy, and since the date of Svechnikov’s injury (March 11), Carolina is the only playoff team with a negative goal differential.
Despite Carolina’s weaknesses, the Islanders still have to execute well enough to win the series. Their 243 goals ranked just 23rd in the league and are the least among all playoff teams.
One key difference? The Islanders are getting healthy. Mathew Barzal is making his return to the lineup tomorrow night, settling on the wing alongside Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. The team’s top playmaking talent had been sidelined for almost two months with a lower-body injury.
With he and leading scorer Brock Nelson on two different lines, a fully healthy top six could be enough to crack an inconsistent Frederik Andersen in the crease for Carolina.
Prediction
With injuries playing a major factor in this series, this isn’t the David vs. Goliath matchup these two teams’ regular-season records suggest. The series will rely on opportunistic scoring to beat a stingy Hurricanes defense or an elite Islanders goalie, and could very easily see multiple momentum swings.
But despite Carolina’s suffocating pressure, the Islanders have a pointed history of eking things out in the postseason. With the momentum (and goaltending) on their side, expect some more playoff magic from a team that’s dealt with pressure all season long.
The prediction: Islanders win in seven games.