Finding A Match For A Duncan Keith Trade
Yesterday, a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the Blackhawks are working with defenseman Duncan Keith on a trade that would send him to either the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada. The move is speculated to be for family reasons which would explain the specific geographical region where he’d waive his no-move clause to go to. With that in mind, let’s look at the potential fit for each of those teams to take on the final two years of his deal ($5.538MM both years but just $3.6MM in total salary combined).
Vancouver – With Alex Edler set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, there is a potential spot for Keith to step into if Edler doesn’t re-sign while it would shift Nate Schmidt back to his off-side. Although the Canucks don’t have the cap space to absorb Keith’s contract outright, they have some expiring contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel) that could be used as offsets to make the money work this year. He’d also be a mentor for top youngster Quinn Hughes.
However, bringing in Keith would also put another roadblock in place for two of their young left-shot blueliners in Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone. Juolevi was able to carve out a limited role last season but more is expected from the fifth overall pick in 2016. As for Rathbone, he didn’t look out of place in a late-season stint and could be in the mix for a full-time spot in training camp. Developing some cost-controlled assets will help offset the big money owed to Hughes and Elias Pettersson this summer and Brock Boeser next summer.
It’s potentially for those reasons that they don’t appear to be interested in acquiring Keith at the moment. There are ways to make the money work for 2021-22 but 2022-23 could be a lot trickier and if they want to let Juolevi and Rathbone see some more NHL action, adding Keith would make that more difficult.
Edmonton – The early indications are that Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM) may not be ready to return at the start of next season so he could be heading for LTIR once again. Last fall, they used that money on Tyson Barrie but they could have to go in a different direction if Barrie prices himself out of what the Oilers can afford. Theoretically, Keith could fill that same role next year although if Klefbom can return later in the year, that would complicate things.
Behind Darnell Nurse, there are few proven options on the left side of Edmonton’s back end. Caleb Jones and William Lagesson have both had their ups and downs to this point in their young careers while Kris Russell is a third-pairing role player at best. Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek will both become unrestricted free agents later this month as well. They have high hopes for Philip Broberg, the eighth pick back in 2019, but he probably isn’t ready to step into a top-four role either. Keith could presumably serve as the bridge player for Broberg.
Edmonton also has some pricey contracts that could be moved to offset money. Winger James Neal has two years left at $5.75MM, nearly the same as Keith while goaltender Mikko Koskinen has one year at $4.5MM remaining. Both are buyout candidates as a result and could be included to balance the cap. With the state of their back end, a veteran that can play on the left side of the second pairing could be a useful pickup and Keith could conceivably fill that role.
Calgary – At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a great fit. The Flames have their top four defenders signed for next year at a cost of $20.75MM. While Keith on the third pairing would certainly improve their depth, paying more than $5MM for the privilege is something they can’t realistically afford.
However, expansion is looming and Calgary appears to be a team that will need to protect seven forwards which means one of their top four blueliners – likely Mark Giordano – will be left exposed to Seattle. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Kraken take on the final year of Giordano’s contract which would create an opening in the top four and $6.75MM in cap space. That could be an opening for Keith but otherwise, the Flames shouldn’t be the landing spot.
Seattle – For the Kraken to pick him in expansion, Keith would first have to waive his no-move clause. Considering his apparent desire to be in the Pacific Northwest, that shouldn’t be an issue. What will be trickier is finding the fit for a trade. Does Seattle want to take on that contract outright or are they going to want some sort of sweetener or salary offset? The latter can’t really happen until after the expansion draft when they’ll have players to trade which would take picking him off the table.
Those small logistics aside, Keith would certainly be an intriguing fit for an expansion team. There’s a chance he’d wind up in a bigger role than he should have (he turns 38 later this month) but he’s also someone that would potentially be their inaugural captain and help shepherd their roster through what will certainly be an interesting first couple of years. If they take a defenseman with their second-overall pick this month and put him on the NHL roster, Keith would work as a good mentor as well. Generally, players that old don’t make sense for a new team but there’s a fit here.
With such a narrow window of teams to work with (Winnipeg is too far East to qualify as part of Western Canada), Chicago and Keith’s camp will have their work cut out for them. Of the four, Edmonton may be the best fit before expansion while Calgary could become an option after that depending on what happens. And with their clean cap situation, Seattle could be in the mix at any time as well. There are options but likely not enough for the Blackhawks to bring in any sort of sizable return for the 16-year veteran.
Calgary Flames Re-Sign Colton Poolman
Saturday: The Flames have confirmed Poolman’s re-signing.
Friday: It may not be the surprise deal that brother Tucker Poolman got with the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday, but defenseman Colton Poolman has signed a new deal of his own. CapFriendly reports that Poolman and the Calgary Flames have come to terms on a one-year extension. Poolman’s new contract actually carries a lesser NHL salary at the minimum $750K compared to his $842.5K entry-level deal, but he earns a raise in the AHL from $70K to $80K.
Poolman, 25, is older than your average second-year pro, but his long-term development path has produced a defender with a well-rounded, intelligent game. A highly sought-after NCAA free agent last off-season, the Flames knew that they were getting a polished product when they emerged as the lucky winners for his services. The former University of North Dakota standout took his lumps early in his first AHL season, but improved as the year went on. A capable puck-mover and solid defensive player, Poolman is a reliable presence on the back end.
Poolman may not have much upside beyond what he has already showed, but is still a nice depth option. The Flames are deep on the blue line and it would be a surprise to see Poolman among the initial seven or eight names on the opening night roster. However, Poolman will be one of the top call-up options and in his second season with the team should make his NHL debut at some point.
Trade Rumors: Jones, Foegele, Tkachuk
A Seth Jones trade seems like a foregone conclusion this off-season. The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman has stated that he will not sign an extension before his current contract expires after the 2021-22 and will test the free agent market, all but guaranteeing that he will not re-sign with the team. The retooling Blue Jackets are not going to watch another star player walk away as they get nothing in return and recognize that Jones’ value will be much higher this summer as opposed to dealing him in-season. Columbus’ leverage is damaged by Jones’ public statements, but the team will try to create a bidding war to drive up the price. There should be no shortage of interest and one team is already hot on the trail. In his latest “31 Thoughts” column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that the Philadelphia Flyers are “definitely” in on Jones and that it isn’t exactly a secret either. Friedman states that there is a lot of chatter surrounding a potential Jones-to-Philly deal already. The Flyers have been open about their desire to add another top pair defenseman across from Ivan Provorov and have a number of talented young roster players and a deep pipeline to offer Columbus whatever they want. In need of top center, perhaps the Blue Jackets will buy low on 2017 second overall pick Nolan Patrick as part of a package for Jones, a top-five pick himself.
- Another player on the trade block, though not as publicly as Jones, is Carolina Hurricanes forward Warren Foegele. Foegele is looking to play a bigger role and on a deep Hurricanes roster he has been limited to bottom-six responsibilities. At first it seemed like Carolina may be reluctant to move the underrated forward, but it seems the tides are turning. Friedman believes that the ‘Canes are going to re-shape their bottom-six after falling short in the playoffs once again and that Foegele’s unofficial trade request may just be honored. He reports that trade talks are occurring between Carolina and Foegele suitors. Friedman adds that impending unrestricted free agent Jordan Martinook is another player unlikely to return to Raleigh next season.
- One player that Friedman does not see moving: Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk. While this may seem like common sense, the Flames are listening to all offers right now and could be making some major changes this summer. There were also whispers that Tkachuk himself may want to leave, however those rumors were met with swift and firm denials. As Friedman points out, that is a contrasting approach to how other teams have treated players who have recently asked to leave, such as Jones or Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson, implying that the rumors are in fact false. Friedman reports that Tkachuk’s name never came up in Calgary’s Pierre-Luc Dubois negotiations and the team has zero interest in trading him.
Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames
Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next summer will be more interesting for Calgary free agent-wise, but there’s still lots to do this time around.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Dillon Dube – This season was supposed to bring a breakout for Dube, and although he did set career-highs in goals and points, it certainly wasn’t the step forward many were hoping for. The 22-year-old forward saw his ice time fall once head coach Darryl Sutter took over, even sitting in the press box as a healthy scratch on occasion. Overall, he averaged less than 14 minutes a night in 2020-21, a far cry from the core piece that he is expected to become. In 51 appearances, Dube ended up with 11 goals and 22 points, still flashing top-six potential at times. But there is a lot of work to be done to gain the trust of Sutter and his contract this summer should reflect that. With just 18 goals through his first 121 games, Dube won’t be able to demand a huge raise and could maybe even be forced to settle for his qualifying offer, given he is not yet arbitration-eligible.
D Juuso Valimaki – The player that Dube shared the press box with on occasion? 22-year-old defenseman Valimaki, who was also called out by Sutter late in the season. “If they become better players, this team becomes better” was the eyebrow-raising quote from the head coach in May, after another Valimaki healthy scratch. The 2017 first-round pick ended up averaging just over 15 minutes a night in 49 games, putting him behind even depth options like Michael Stone and Nikita Nesterov. Because Valimaki missed the entire 2019-20 season due to injury, he actually will actually have even more restrictions this summer. He is not eligible for an offer sheet and is not eligible for arbitration, meaning just like Dube, he may have to settle for his qualifying offer if the two sides don’t work out a multi-year deal.
Other RFAs: F Glenn Gawdin, F Dominik Simon, F Justin Kirkland, F Matthew Phillips, F Luke Philp, D Oliver Kylington, D Connor Mackey, D Carl-Johan Lerby, D Alexander Yelesin, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons, G Artyom Zagidulin
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Derek Ryan – If Ryan is the most important free agent forward you are at risk of losing you’re in a good spot, but he’s actually an interesting extension candidate for the Flames. The 34-year-old center is still a capable penalty killer and you could do far worse for a fourth-line center, but his real value would come in the expansion draft, where Calgary needs players to fill the exposure requirements upfront. While it sounds like Milan Lucic will be waiving his no-movement clause to fill one spot, the team will need one of the other regulars from this season to sign a deal in the coming weeks.
G Louis Domingue – It’s not really that Domingue is a must-sign player for the Flames, but he represents a position that will need to be filled somehow. The team has Jacob Markstrom locked in as the starter, but they will need a backup goaltender that can help give him some time off or even take the net for a little while. David Rittich, who was supposed to be that option, was traded at the deadline, and Domingue likely isn’t the answer. While he does have a .904 save percentage in 140 NHL appearances, that number is boosted by some early-career stats. Over the past two seasons, he has posted an .882 in 18 games, certainly not enough to play tandem to Markstrom.
Other UFAs: F Brett Ritchie, F Buddy Robinson, F Josh Leivo, F Zac Rinaldo, D Michael Stone, D Nikita Nesterov, D Alex Petrovic
Projected Cap Space
One of the most interesting parts of the offseason for Calgary is how they deal with their big-ticket players who haven’t yet rewarded the team with much playoff success. The Flames have nearly $67MM tied up in just 13 contracts for the 2021-22 season, meaning they have less than $15MM to round out the rest of the roster. With Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Giordano set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, Sean Monahan, and Lucic the year after, there will be money coming off the books in short order. If any of those contracts are moved out, the team could get a jump on things by being aggressive in free agency this year, knowing there will be a bit more flexibility down the road.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Andrew Mangiapane Open To Long-Term Extension In Calgary
- Fresh off being named MVP at the Worlds, Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane indicated in a recent appearance on Sportsnet 960 (audio link) that he would be interested in signing a long-term extension with the team. 2021-22 is the final year of his two-year, $4.85MM contract so he will be eligible to sign a new deal when free agency opens next month. Mangiapane had 32 points this season (the second straight year with that total) so while he may want to stick around for the long haul, he’s probably going to be better off waiting to see how next season goes in the hopes of improving his negotiating leverage heading into those discussions.
Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.
Expectations were fairly high for the Flames heading into the season. They landed the top goaltender in free agency back in the fall in Jacob Markstrom while also adding Christopher Tanev to anchor a defensive pairing. These win-now moves didn’t do much to move the needle, however. Geoff Ward lost his head coaching job before the halfway point of the season with Darryl Sutter being brought in to turn things around but he managed the same .500 win percentage as his predecessor. Their only playoff victory in the past six seasons was the Qualifying Round in the bubble so it appears more changes will be on the horizon. What those changes should be highlights their summer checklist.
Add A Backup Goalie
Calgary had David Rittich backing up Markstrom for most of the season and the results weren’t particularly great although they were able to get a third-round pick from Toronto who brought him in as injury insurance for the playoffs. Louis Domingue served as the backup after that and he’s an unrestricted free agent this summer. That creates an opening that will need to be filled.
The good news is that there are plenty of free agents available so GM Brad Treliving shouldn’t have a hard time finding one. The question here will be how much they want to commit to Markstrom’s understudy. Markstrom, when healthy, has shown himself to be capable of logging heavy workloads and this season was no exception as only Connor Hellebuyck made more appearances. If they want him to play that much over the next couple of years, they can shop at the lower end of the market and free up some cap room for other areas. However, most teams don’t want their starter playing 60-plus games each season and if the Flames feel that way, they’ll have to shop closer to the higher end where it will cost another million or so on the AAV.
Core Decisions
The Flames have a core group up front and while they have shown flashes of strong offensive performances, it simply hasn’t been good enough. Returning the same core that has underachieved feels like a complete non-option at this point as expecting a big internal improvement from this group probably isn’t feasible. The question isn’t if the core will be back but rather how much of it won’t be.
The biggest uncertainty surrounds Johnny Gaudreau. The winger is set to enter the final year of his contract and while he has expressed a willingness to sign an extension, it’s fair to speculate if Calgary may feel otherwise. The 27-year-old didn’t have a bad year – he led the team in scoring and improved his per-game rates from 2019-20. But he’s also not the same player he was a few years ago when he put up two seasons of better than a point-per-game average including a 99-point campaign in 2018-19. He’s still a top-line player for now but do they want to commit a long-term contract to him? If not, then he becomes one of the more intriguing trade candidates of the summer as letting him walk to unrestricted free agency isn’t a viable idea.
Sean Monahan has also been in trade speculation already. He also has seen his production taper off in recent years and he had just 10 goals and 28 points this season in 50 games. In terms of output from centers, he was third behind Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund. With two years left, he’s not a rental either although they’d be selling low. With three top-six pivots, do they look to flip one for some help on the wing?
Is one move going enough or will multiple changes be needed to shake things up? That’s what Treliving is going to have to determine in the coming weeks and with it being harder to move money once the top free agents are off the board, he will likely need to make this decision by the end of July.
Add Offensive Help
On top of shaking up their offensive core, Calgary needs to add to it. They’ve been in the middle of the pack defensively the last couple of seasons but have only managed to finish 20th in goals scored in each of the past two seasons. They didn’t have a 20-goal scorer either. The composition of their roster is better suited towards a score by committee approach but for that to work, they need to have three lines capable of scoring. They’re not there just yet.
Yes, younger players like World Championships MVP Andrew Mangiapane and Dillon Dube are capable of improving and providing a boost from within. But adding one more top-six forward would also go a long way towards deepening their attack. However, with nearly $68MM in commitments to just 14 players, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for an impact addition so some cap juggling will be needed if Treliving is going to be able to add to the core.
Protect Giordano
With how well a lot of side deals in expansion went for Vegas back in 2017, some have expected there won’t be as many of those made this time around. But Calgary looks like a team that may want to do so given their situation on the back end.
With Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, and Tanev, Calgary has three blueliners locked up for at least the next three seasons. It then stands to reason that those will be the three that they protect from Seattle, assuming they use the standard 7/3/1 protection scheme. However, that leaves their captain Mark Giordano on the outside looking in.
Giordano has been a fixture for the Flames for nearly 15 years aside from a brief stint in the KHL. He’s second in franchise history in games played and third in scoring by a defenseman. Yes, he’s nearing the end of his playing career (and has just one year left on his contract with a $6.75MM AAV) but he’s someone the Flames would undoubtedly want to keep around as long as it doesn’t cost them one of those other three protectees, even if it took away from adding up front.
While a 37-year-old on a pricey expiring contract may not seem like the best fit for an expansion franchise, he’d give Seattle some short-term stability and an intriguing trade chip so they could be inclined to take him. Treliving will need to find a way to talk them out of potentially doing that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Calgary Flames Hire Kirk Muller, Cail MacLean
The Calgary Flames have added an experienced name to the bench for next season, hiring Kirk Muller as an associate coach. Cail MacLean, who served as head coach of the Stockton Heat for the past three seasons, will also be joining the Flames as an assistant. Muller was let go earlier this season by the Montreal Canadiens when the team parted ways with Claude Julien, but didn’t take long to find his next NHL stop. Ray Edwards and Martin Gelinas will not be returning as assistant coaches but are not leaving the organization. Instead, they’ll transfer to the player development department for the Flames.
Muller, 55, has a long history in the NHL, going back to his selection second overall by the New Jersey Devils in 1984. He played parts of 19 seasons in the NHL, suiting up for 1,349 regular season games and taking home the Stanley Cup in 1993. As a coach, he joined the Canadiens for the first time in 2006 before taking a head coaching job with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2011. He went exactly .500 during his three-year tenure with the Hurricanes, before going to St. Louis and then back to Montreal. Though he doesn’t have a ton of head coaching experience, the Flames may well see him as a replacement for Darryl Sutter in a few years.
MacLean meanwhile is getting his first taste of the NHL at age-44 but is an up-and-coming head coaching prospect in his own right. The former minor league player has been in charge of ECHL and AHL teams previously, taking the slow necessary steps to establish himself as a future NHL head coach. During his time with the Heat, they posted a 72-65-16 record.
The two men will join a coaching staff that also includes assistant coach Ryan Huska (who was the Stockton coach prior to MacLean), goaltending coach Jason LaBarbera, and video coach Jamie Pringle.
Dustin Wolf Wins WHL Goalie Of The Year (Again)
Dustin Wolf refuses to go along with the scouting norms. The Calgary Flames prospect just keeps winning, collecting the WHL Goaltender of the Year award for the second year in a row. Wolf had another incredible season, posting a .940 save percentage in 22 appearances with the Everett Silvertips, going 18-3 in the process with four shutouts. He added a gold medal with the U.S. World Junior squad as well, while also making his professional debut with the Stockton Heat of the AHL.
Not bad for the 214th overall pick in 2019.
There has been no stopping (or perhaps plenty of it?) Wolf at the junior level, where he has won almost every trophy imaginable during his time with the Silvertips. He will leave the WHL with a career record of 106-34-6, 24 shutouts and a .935 save percentage. He becomes only the fourth goaltender since 2001 to win the Del Wilson Memorial Trophy multiple times, joining Cam Ward, Chet Pickard, and fellow Silvertips alumni Carter Hart.
Now, the question will be whether his size holds him back at the next level. Wolf measures in at a generous 6’0″ and weighs just 168 lbs, which would make him one of the smallest goaltenders in the NHL. That’s exactly why he slipped to the seventh round, but it is impossible to ignore what he has done since the Flames took a chance on him two years ago.
Recently, there has been something of a resurgence of small goaltenders. Alex Nedeljkovic, a finalist for the Calder Trophy this season, faced a similar uphill battle because of his six-foot stature, but took advantage of an opportunity in Carolina and posted outstanding numbers for the Hurricanes this season. Juuse Saros, who many believe should have been a finalist for the Vezina this year is officially listed at 5’11”. Anton Khudobin is also listed at 5’11” and carried the Dallas Stars to the Stanley Cup Final last year. Jonathan Bernier (6’0″), Antti Raanta (6’0″), and Jaroslav Halak (5’11”) are other goaltenders who have found plenty of success in the NHL despite not being quite as lengthy as their contemporaries.
There’s no guarantee that Wolf makes it, but at this point, it doesn’t make much sense to bet against him. He’ll get a chance to show what he can do at the pro level next season, which will end up being the first season of his three-year entry-level deal (the contract was signed in 2020, but will slide forward this year after he spent the season in junior).
Minor Transactions: 06/04/21
There are just eight teams left alive in the NHL postseason and by this time next week that number could be down to four. The off-season has arrived for most, with all other major hockey leagues long since wrapped up. While many will wait for the NHL off-season to officially begin before making a decision on their future, other are willing to make a decision right away. Here are some notable moves from the latter group:
- As previously suggested, Joakim Nordstrom has indeed signed with the KHL’s CSKA Moscow. The club officially announced a one-year contract with the NHL veteran on Friday. While Nordstrom has never been a scoring threat in the NHL, his early commitment overseas is at least slightly suprising. The two-way forward clearly provides value, as evidenced by six straight seasons of starting at least two-thirds of his teams’ games across stops in Carolina, Boston, and Calgary. A solid checker and shot blocker, Nordstrom is a good defensive presence as a bottom-six forward, but does not provide much upside. Perhaps in Russia he will be able to do more offensively and play a more balanced game. He will be surrounded by plenty of talent with CSKA, a KHL juggernaut.
- Another forward heading to Europe is Tanner MacMaster. The former Quinnipiac University standout has played well in the AHL over the past three years, including playing a top-six role with 30 points for a loaded Toronto Marlies team last season, but has not earned an entry-level contract. He will look to Sweden for a bigger role and more substantial contract after spending this season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. MODO of the Swedish second-tier Allsvenskan has announced a one-year deal with MacMaster, who they label as a top-six center for the club.
- After a year off in 2020-21, former NHL enforcer Luke Gazdic has decided to make the change permanent. The veteran of 11 pro seasons has announced his retirement from the game. Gazdic will be remembered most for his three seasons as a fixture on the Edmonton Oilers’ checking line, though he developed into a leader in the AHL as well, spending his final two seasons with the San Diego Gulls.
- Also calling it quits after a long pro career is longtime Cleveland Monsters goaltender Brad Thiessen. Thiessen, 35, has announced his retirement after twelve years at the pro level. Thiessen initially left Northeastern University early in 2009, signing with the Pittsburgh Penguins as a highly sought-after free agent. Thiessen played three seasons with the Penguins, including seeing action in five NHL games, and another with the Calgary Flames, but since 2015-16 has been with AHL Cleveland. Thiessen helped to develop Columbus Blue Jackets netminders Joonas Korpisalo and Matiss Kivlenieks while continually providing reliable play and even leading the club to a Calder Cup.
Buffalo Sabres Win 2021 NHL Draft Lottery
For the final time for the foreseeable future, all non-playoff teams were eligible to win the first overall pick in the NHL Draft Lottery. Beginning in 2022, a team can only move up a maximum of ten spots, meaning the teams who finish No. 12 through No. 16 in the final league standings cannot move high enough to take over the top pick. The stage was set for a climactic send-off for the old format.
Well, the lottery balls decided not to take a crazy bounce in their last opportunity to move a team from the middle of the first round all the way to the top. Instead, the draft order stayed virtually the same. The Buffalo Sabres, who held the worst record in the NHL this season and thus the top odds in the lottery, retained the No. 1 pick. The expansion Seattle Kraken, awarded the same odds as the third-worst record in the league, moved up one spot, switching places with the Anaheim Ducks. New this year, there were only two lottery draws as opposed to the former three. Here is the official first-round draft order for the top 15 picks:
- Buffalo Sabres
- Seattle Kraken
- Anaheim Ducks
- New Jersey Devils
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Detroit Red Wings
- San Jose Sharks
- Los Angeles Kings
- Vancouver Canucks
- Ottawa Senators
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Calgary Flames
- Philadelphia Flyers
- Dallas Stars
- New York Rangers
(As a reminder, the Arizona Coyotes forfeited their first-round pick this years as discipline for scouting violations)
This will be the second time in four years that the Buffalo Sabres will pick first overall after selecting Rasmus Dahlin at the top spot in 2018. It also means that two teams, the Sabres and New Jersey Devils, will have owned the first pick in four of the past five drafts. The two clubs are happy that the NHL’s new rule limiting teams to two lottery wins in a five-year span kicks in next year with a clean slate. Incredibly, the Sabres lottery win also further advances the mythology of Taylor Hall. Although Hall is now with the Boston Bruins, this is the fifth time in Hall’s career that his most recent team eligible for the draft lottery has won. A No. 1 overall pick himself, Hall has brought luck to the Edmonton Oilers, Devils, and now Sabres.
Perhaps bigger news than Buffalo at No. 1 is Seattle at No. 2, a major opportunity for the Kraken to draft a player who is ready to join the team in their inaugural season. The Vegas Golden Knights, with the same odds in the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery, fell to No. 6 overall and drafted Cody Glass, who has still yet to establish himself as a regular in the Vegas lineup. With the second pick, Seattle will have better odds of adding an instant difference-maker.
The 2021 NHL Draft is unique compared to recent years in that there is no consensus top prospect. In fact, it is difficult to remember a draft class in recent memory that is so undecided at the top. One major factor has been the lack of complete scouting due to canceled and shortened seasons and limited live viewings. However, even with complete information, there is still seemingly no prospect that stands heads above the rest. University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power and forward Matthew Beniers are largely considered the top players at each position and the two most likely candidates for the top pick, with Power having a slight lead according to draft pundits. However, current teammate Kent Johnson and Wolverines commit Luke Hughes, a forward and defenseman respectively, are also in the mix. Canadian junior standouts Mason McTavish, Dylan Guenther, and Brandt Clarke and European pros William Eklund and Simon Edvinsson may also be in play.