Arbitration Breakdown: Jack McBain
Just a few arbitration cases remain, as the last day of hearings is slated for August 4. One player who will learn his financial fate before then is Arizona Coyotes forward Jack McBain, whose hearing is slated for Sunday along with Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman. The two sides have until the start of the hearing to reach an agreement, although PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reported earlier this month the two sides weren’t close to a deal.
Filings
Team: $1.2MM cap hit (two years)
Player: $2.25MM cap hit (one year)
Midpoint: $1.725MM cap hit
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Despite being just 23 years old, this isn’t the first time McBain’s been in some contract turmoil with an NHL team. Drafted by the Minnesota Wild in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft, the team was forced to trade his signing rights after a strong senior season at Boston College after McBain informed them he wouldn’t sign. The Coyotes picked him up at the end of last season via trade and immediately signed him to an entry-level contract, providing McBain with a clearer path to NHL ice than in Minnesota.
The decision to sign with Arizona proved fruitful for McBain out of the gate, who played in all 82 games for the Coyotes in his first full NHL season. While he played bottom-six minutes and didn’t post strong advanced numbers, he had some promising production on the scoresheet with 12 goals, 14 assists and 26 points. He did, however, get eaten alive in the faceoff dot, posting just a 44% win rate. That’s not uncommon for a rookie center, however.
The point totals are solid when you consider his most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and bottom-six grinder Christian Fischer, not exactly players who have had sustained offensive success at the NHL level. Consider every single one of McBain’s points came at even strength, and he has a strong case to see a bump in minutes next season. After the team added Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker and Nick Bjugstad in free agency and Logan Cooley via entry-level contract, however, McBain could reprise a fourth-line role in 2023-24.
It’s likely why the Coyotes have gone with a rather low filing on a two-year deal, especially considering some of his advanced numbers suggest a sophomore slump may be in the cards. However, there is still a lot to like about McBain as a player, even if many of those positives still revolve around his upside. Projected as a two-way talent, the Coyotes will rely on him to leverage his 6-foot-3, 201-pound frame more often to make plays on both sides of the puck. That’s not to say he shied away from physicality – his 64 penalty minutes ranked third on the team behind O’Brien and defenseman Josh Brown. Still, the Coyotes remain wary of sinking too much into a player that may not see more than a 4C role as their forward group fills out.
2022-23 Stats: 82 GP, 12-14-26, -8, 64 PIMs, 85 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 40.1 CF%, 44.0 FOW%
Career Stats: 92 GP, 14-15-29, -14, 70 PIMs, 98 shots, 14:00 ATOI, 40.3 CF%, 42.9 FOW%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of McBain’s negotiation.
Barrett Hayton (Arizona Coyotes) – If you’re trying to find a player with similar age and production to McBain at this point in time, you don’t need to look very far. Hayton signed a two-year, $1.775MM deal with the Coyotes late last summer after failing to post top-six caliber numbers throughout three seasons and 94 games in the desert. While McBain doesn’t carry the same potential as Hayton (who did have a nice campaign in 2022-23) and is a few years older, it does warrant consideration and will likely be used in-house as a comparable during the arbitration hearing. The offensive production at the time of signing is similar, and it’s a deal quite close to the midpoint of the two filings.
Isac Lundeström (Anaheim Ducks) – This one is likely a better fit for McBain in terms of age and potential, and they’re both projected to be relied upon as defensively responsible threats down the middle long term. An arbitrator awarded Lundeström a two-year deal worth $1.8MM per season last summer, also making this a slightly better direct arbitration comparable. At the time of signing, Lundeström had slightly more NHL experience at 151 games played but produced at a similar offensive clip, posting 22 goals and 44 points in that span. Both players have yet to hit their defensive potential.
Projection
The gap between the two filings isn’t terribly wide at just over $1MM in difference, nor will an arbitrator decision be a significant factor in the team’s salary cap situation. It’s likely to be one of the least consequential cases to be decided via arbitration this summer, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth discussion.
The comparables outlined and scoring numbers produced by McBain generate a strong argument for an arbitrator to side slightly north of the $1.725MM midpoint, but not by much. It is likely, however, that the arbitrator award will be a two-year deal based on McBain’s best comparables. Look for a two-year award close to, but not north of, the $2MM mark when the decision gets announced on Tuesday.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vladimir Tarasenko Had Offers From Hurricanes, Sharks
2:40 p.m.: Strickland has modified his initial report, now claiming the Hurricanes’ highest offer to Tarasenko was under $4MM on a one-year deal. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford also reported late last night that the Florida Panthers had submitted an offer for Tarasenko, which Strickland mentioned likely wasn’t a “competitive offer.”
1:50 p.m.: While star sniper Vladimir Tarasenko did find a home in free agency, it was far from a smooth process. Before signing a one-year, $5MM contract with the Ottawa Senators Thursday night, the 2019 Stanley Cup champion changed his representation early in July after not landing a deal when the UFA market opened on July 1. Shortly before that, multiple reports suggested Tarasenko was close to reaching a pact with the Carolina Hurricanes. Evidently, it didn’t come to fruition.
Despite his goal-scoring pedigree, the lack of widespread interest in Tarasenko made sense. He’s still incredibly skilled, but his ability to drive play is diminishing as he enters his 30s. He’s also had two major shoulder injuries in the past four years. His goal-scoring production also trailed off significantly last season, failing to score 20 goals in a full season for the first time in his career. It appears the Hurricanes, Sens, and San Jose Sharks all made firm contract offers to Tarasenko during his free agency period, though, as Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest reports today.
The Hurricanes and Sharks both made one-year pitches to Tarasenko at $5.25MM and $6MM respectively, Strickland said. Ottawa had also pitched a longer-term offer to Tarasenko at the beginning of free agency, coming in at four years and $22MM (a $5.5MM average annual value). With over $60MM in estimated career earnings to date, per CapFriendly, it’s understandable why Tarasenko would hesitate to commit long-term to a team that’s failed to exit their rebuild stage in earnest.
However, it appears Tarasenko also lost money on a short-term agreement by waiting to sign with the Sens. He’s at a stage in his career where winning is the highest priority, so the basement-dwelling Sharks were likely never in consideration unless they made a truly extravagant offer. He did lose out on $250K by not signing with the Canes, though, a mistake likely caused by waiting out for a better deal. It’s fair to assume Carolina’s offer to Tarasenko was made before they signed defenseman Anthony DeAngelo to a one-year, $1.675MM contract, using up most of their remaining cap space in the process.
In not signing with Carolina, Tarasenko arguably lost out on the best marriage of finances and team competitiveness. There are still many moving parts, including trade rumors surrounding their pending UFA defenseman Brett Pesce and San Jose Sharks star defender Erik Karlsson. Still, the team remains among the favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup in 2024, thanks to a strong returning core and a pair of major UFA pickups in Dmitry Orlov and Michael Bunting.
That’s not to say Ottawa is a bad final fit for the Russian winger. The team does still have playoff aspirations for next season, and a strong rebound campaign from Tarasenko could certainly help lift them to their first postseason appearance since 2017. Even if the injury bug strikes the Sens again or they fall out of playoff contention, a strong individual campaign from Tarasenko alongside a star-studded top-six that includes Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Joshua Norris, and Claude Giroux could earn him a more lucrative contract next offseason on a contending team. It’s an option made more palatable for Tarasenko by a relatively sharp expected rise in the salary cap’s Upper Limit compared to recent seasons.
Gabriel Carlsson Signs In Sweden
SHL club Växjö Lakers HC released a statement today confirming the earlier-reported signing of left-shot defenseman Gabriel Carlsson to a three-year contract. The former Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals defenseman signs in his home country of Sweden three days before SHL training camps begin on July 31.
A first-round draft choice of the Blue Jackets in 2015, the 26-year-old Carlsson joined the Capitals organization on a one-year, two-way deal last offseason after Columbus didn’t issue him a qualifying offer to retain his signing rights as an RFA. In hindsight, Carlsson likely received a little more hype than was warranted by his prospect status – Columbus drafted him as a shutdown defender, but registering just seven assists in 39 top-league Swedish junior games during his draft year didn’t inspire much confidence in terms of NHL projectability. Unfortunately, the concerns about Carlsson reaching his ceiling as a premiere defensive specialist turned out to be true, and he appeared in just 75 NHL contests for Columbus over parts of six seasons before the team cut him loose.
A last-ditch effort to get a full-time NHL job in Washington didn’t work out for Carlsson, either. He played just six games for the Capitals, his lowest total since 2019-20, recording two assists and a -1 rating. The season wasn’t a complete loss for Carlsson, however, as he played a top-pairing shutdown role for the AHL’s Hershey Bears and won his first professional championship in the process. Despite the Calder Cup win, his postseason play wasn’t as impressive as his regular-season performance, as he notched just two assists in 20 games and attached a -1 rating.
With that, Carlsson hit the UFA market thanks to the lack of a qualifying offer for a second straight season, obviously a fairly demoralizing experience. He’ll now participate in SHL play for the first time since 2016-17, when he posted two goals and two assists for four points and a +8 rating in 40 games for Linköping HC as a 19-year-old.
A three-year deal keeps Carlsson in Sweden through the 2025-26 season and could very well end his days of North American pro hockey. The towering 6-foot-5, 203-pound defenseman will look to help guide Växjö to their third SHL championship in four seasons after they won the title in 2021 and 2023. He joins a team ripe with former and future NHLers, including forward Tobias Rieder, defenseman Joel Persson, and high-end Buffalo Sabres center prospect Noah Östlund.
2023 Salary Arbitration Tracker
Originally published July 10th
This morning, the NHLPA announced the calendar of dates for this offseason’s slate of salary arbitration hearings. 23 players are slated for hearings, including the 22 players who elected arbitration last week, although some names below have been settled. As contracts are reached before hearing dates arrive, we’ll continuously update this article with the terms of settled contracts.
July 20
F Philipp Kurashev, Chicago (decided, two years, $4.5MM)
F Brandon Duhaime, Minnesota (settled, one year, $1.1MM)
F Alexey Toropchenko, St. Louis (settled, two years, $2.5MM)
F Noah Cates, Philadelphia (settled, two years, $5.25MM)
July 21
G Ilya Samsonov, Toronto (decided, one year, $3.55MM)
July 24
F Brett Howden, Vegas (settled, two years, $3.8MM)
D Vince Dunn, Seattle (settled, four years, $29.4MM)
F Tanner Jeannot, Tampa (settled, two years, $5.33MM)
July 26
D Ian Mitchell, Boston (settled, one year, $775K)
D William Borgen, Seattle (settled, two years, $5.4MM)
July 27
F Ross Colton, Colorado (settled, four years, $16MM)
July 28
F Gabriel Vilardi, Winnipeg (settled, two years, $6.875MM)
D Cale Fleury, Seattle (settled, two years, $1.6MM)
July 30
G Jeremy Swayman, Boston (decided, one year, $3.475MM)
F Jack McBain, Arizona (settled, two years, $3.2MM)
July 31
*F Alex DeBrincat, Detroit (settled, four years, $31.5MM)
*The Ottawa Senators filed for team-elected arbitration with DeBrincat before trading his rights to Detroit
August 1
F Trent Frederic, Boston (settled, two years, $4.6MM)
August 2
F Morgan Barron, Winnipeg (settled, two years, $2.7MM)
F Troy Terry, Anaheim (settled, seven years, $49MM)
August 4
F Ryan McLeod, Edmonton (settled, two years, $4.2MM)
D Brandon Scanlin, NY Rangers (settled, one year, $775K)
G Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota (settled, three years, $11.25MM)
F Drew O’Connor, Pittsburgh (settled, two years, $1.85MM)
A reminder of the rules surrounding salary arbitration, per CapFriendly:
- A player and team can settle on a deal at any point before the hearing starts
- Once the hearing has taken place, the arbitration decision must be issued by email within 48 hours of the closing
- Arbitration awards can only be one or two years in length
- Players who are in their final year of restricted free agency are only entitled to a one-year term
- The team decides on the awarded term, save for any team-elected arbitration cases
- The team can walk away from the arbitration decision if a contract with an average annual value of more than $4.54MM is granted
Jeremy Groleau Linked To Sweden
After going unqualified by the New Jersey Devils last month, young defenseman Jeremy Groleau may have found his new home. The 23-year-old has a one-year agreement in place with SHL club Farjestad BK, per Hans Abrahamsson and Tomas Ros of Sportbladet.
It’s not often we see a North American-born player head to Europe immediately after completing their entry-level contract, but that appears to be Groleau’s choice. He hit the unrestricted free agent market this offseason despite seeing an increased role when in the lineup with the Devils’ AHL affiliate, the Utica Comets, but he played just 43 games and was stuck behind many higher-ceiling defenders ahead of him in the organization.
Groleau went undrafted when first eligible in 2018, but it didn’t take him long to find an NHL home. The Devils signed Groleau to a three-year entry-level contract later that summer as a free agent out of the QMJHL’s Chicoutimi Sagueneens, but the deal slid twice as he didn’t get into any NHL action during the first two seasons of the deal.
The Quebec-born defender actually has quite a bit of pro experience for a player his age, appearing in 151 AHL games for the Comets/Binghamton Devils over the past five seasons. This past season was his first real taste of any top-four action in the minors, and he responded with a career-high 10 points and a +14 rating in 43 games.
He could’ve been an intriguing target for some teams to pick up on a minor-league deal, especially given his 6-foot-3 frame and improving defensive play. Instead, he heads to one of Europe’s most successful franchises – Farjestad has won the SHL/Elitserien championship seven times since 1994 and consistently participates in the continental Champions Hockey League.
With seven healthy defenders already signed for next season, though, Groleau will have to slog it out for playing time with his new Swedish teammates. Interestingly, the report from Abrahamsson and Ros suggests Farjestad was interested in retaining NHL veteran defender Brandon Davidson, who instead signed with rival SHL club Rogle BK this morning.
Arizona Coyotes Sign Logan Cooley
What seemed unlikely until the last 24 hours has officially occurred. The Arizona Coyotes have signed their top prospect, center Logan Cooley, to his three-year, entry-level deal, according to a team announcement. CapFriendly reports the structure of his ELC, which carries a $950K cap hit, is as follows: a $850K base salary, $95K signing bonus, $1MM type ‘A’ performance bonus, and $2.5MM type ‘B’ performance bonus. This is the maximum financial compensation Cooley is eligible to receive on his ELC.
Reports from PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman yesterday suggested an official announcement on Arizona signing Cooley could come today or Friday. The news comes after Cooley said earlier this summer he’d return to the University of Minnesota for another year of college hockey in 2023-24.
Cooley, 19, is not just Arizona’s best center prospect – he’s their best prospect overall since selecting star winger Clayton Keller at seventh overall in 2016. Putting up the second-most points of anyone in NCAA hockey last season, Cooley could very well slot in between Keller and Nick Schmaltz and take on first-line duties during his first season in the desert. The product of the Pittsburgh Penguins youth program posted a rather raucous 60 points in 39 games, helping guide Minnesota to the national championship game before conceding to Quinnipiac University in overtime.
As mentioned yesterday, the Coyotes must be happy with their choice to select Cooley at third overall last year over projected first-overall pick Shane Wright, who fell all the way to the Seattle Kraken at fourth overall. While Wright still projects as a promising talent, he’s no longer in a head-and-shoulders tier above the rest of the 2022 class – in fact, Cooley might be the only player you could make that argument for.
It’s worth noting that Cooley is far from a one-dimensional talent. While he did have some growing pains defensively early on in the collegiate season, he’s shown that his speed can be a factor on the backcheck. He can be caught out of position at times when in the defensive zone, though, something he’ll need to work on with Arizona at the NHL level. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue with head coach Andre Tourigny at the helm, who’s regarded as one of the better development coaches in the league. Unfortunately, Arizona hasn’t had a competitive enough roster during Tourigny’s tenure to showcase his full coaching abilities.
At his peak, Cooley is an electric offense-generating talent who demands attention on the ice, especially when making breaks up the middle through the neutral zone. His ability to catch passes in stride makes him a more-than-ideal complement for a strong playmaking winger.
Michael Dal Colle Signs In Germany
Former New York Islanders forward Michael Dal Colle is extending his stay overseas by signing a one-year deal with the DEL’s Iserlohn Roosters, per an announcement from the German club. The 2014 fifth-overall pick has not suited up in the NHL since a lone appearance with the Islanders in 2021-22.
To say Dal Colle’s career has stagnated since his draft year would be an understatement. He never stuck in the NHL full time, spending most of his pro tenure with the Islanders organization with their AHL affiliate in Bridgeport. The team cut ties with their former top prospect in the summer of 2022, letting him become a UFA by not issuing him a qualifying offer. With no other NHL offers, Dal Colle signed in Finland with Liiga club TPS, where he registered just four goals in 36 games. However, he did add a respectable 15 assists for 19 points in total.
Still, it’s far below expectations for Dal Colle, who now seems destined to play out the remainder of his pro career in Europe. The 27-year-old winger totaled just 112 NHL appearances for the Islanders across five seasons, scoring eight goals and 13 assists for 21 points. It wasn’t a case of strong minors production not translating to the pros, either. He only had one standout year in the AHL, recording 18 goals and 34 points in 34 games for Bridgeport in 2018-19, but otherwise posted rather pedestrian point totals representative of a middle-six AHL forward.
In Iserlohn, Dal Colle joins a team stuck in the throes of DEL mediocrity – never good enough to advance deep in the postseason nor bad enough to get relegated to the DEL2, Germany’s second-tier pro league. In fact, the current iteration of the Roosters has never been demoted from the DEL since their inception in 2000-01, but they’ve yet to advance past the quarterfinals in the DEL’s postseason. Iserlohn has also missed the playoffs entirely in each of the past two seasons.
Dal Colle will look to regain some scoring confidence in Germany, while Iserlohn will bank on the former top-five pick producing well for them in an extended role. He joins former Tampa Bay Lightning defense prospect Ben Thomas and former Chicago Blackhawks forward Drew LeBlanc as players with NHL experience on Iserlohn’s roster.
Hurricanes “Not Close” On Extension Talks With Pending UFAs
Today was a ceremonious day for the Carolina Hurricanes organization, locking in franchise center Sebastian Aho to the richest deal in franchise history. Don’t expect groundbreaking extensions for any other Hurricane hitting the open market in 2024, though. General manager Don Waddell told reporters, including the North State Journal’s Cory Lavalette today, that the team “isn’t close” on extensions with any of their other pending UFAs.
This rather consequential list includes, first and foremost, long-rumored trade target defenseman Brett Pesce. It’s long been believed that Carolina would trade Pesce sooner rather than later if an extension wasn’t in the cards, and Waddell confirmed that that was the case today. It’s fair to wonder whether his quote today increases Pesce trade speculation in the coming days, especially since little is known about the list of teams who’ve called the ‘Canes about Pesce’s services.
Moving out Pesce with haste would free up more space for the Hurricanes to pursue Erik Karlsson, who they’ve also been connected to on the trade market for many weeks. Bringing in Anthony DeAngelo for his second stint in a Carolina jersey also seems like a targeted backup plan if Carolina trades Pesce but fails to nab Karlsson, the 2023 Norris Trophy winner, in a trade from the San Jose Sharks.
Pesce isn’t the only notable Hurricane headed for unrestricted free agency next summer, however. On offense, Teuvo Teravainen and his five-year, $27MM deal signed in 2019 are set to expire. While he had arguably his worst season in a Hurricanes jersey last year, registering just 12 goals and 37 points in 68 games, he’s been one of Carolina’s top scorers for the better part of the previous half-decade. That being said, he’s also destined for a reduced role next season, with the addition of Michael Bunting in the team’s top six and Seth Jarvis likely to surpass him on the team’s depth chart. It makes sense why the Hurricanes wouldn’t want to pay Teravainen what he believes he’s worth, especially at this stage without any clear evidence of a permanent decline. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit the UFA market for the first time next July.
There’s also the matter of fan-favorite depth forward Jordan Martinook, a vital locker-room fixture with the team who’s had a tumultuous season in Raleigh. Placed on waivers (and cleared) before the season started to create some salary cap flexibility, Martinook would go on to play a pivotal depth role for Carolina in 2022-23. His 21 assists and 34 points in 82 games were both career highs, and he notched a remarkable 12 points in 15 playoff games as the Hurricanes marched on to the Eastern Conference Final yet again. Entering the final season of a three-year, $5.4MM contract signed in 2021, Martinook’s stock is at an all-time high. If there is an extension to be had here, don’t expect it to come before the New Year.
Finally, at least among the significant roster pieces headed for free agency next year, Pesce’s defense partner remains without a contract past 2024. Brady Skjei is now in the final season of a six-year, $31.5MM contract, and he’s had a rather up-and-down tenure with Carolina since they acquired him via trade in 2021. He’s been inconsistent defensively over the life of his contract but has settled into posting solid second-pairing numbers for the Hurricanes, at least from an offensive standpoint – he registered a career-high 18 goals last year after posting 39 points in 82 games the year before. While an effective player, he’s also not worth the $5.25MM per season they’re paying him – at least not for Carolina’s needs. With multiple high-end defense prospects on the way, it again shouldn’t be a surprise that the Hurricanes aren’t chomping at the bit to extend him.
Rounding out the list of pending UFAs for Carolina in 2024 are forwards Brendan Lemieux and Stefan Noesen, defenseman Jalen Chatfield, and goalie Antti Raanta. DeAngelo is also slated for unrestricted free agency in 2024 as well. All of those players were either signed to one-year deals this summer or have sub-$1MM cap hits.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Colorado Avalanche Re-Sign Ben Meyers
The Colorado Avalanche have re-signed forward Ben Meyers to a one-year contract, according to a team release. In doing so, the team has locked up their last remaining RFA this offseason and has their financial picture set for 2023-24, notwithstanding any further UFA additions. Per The Athletic’s Peter Baugh, it’s a league-minimum pact with a $775K cap hit.
Meyers, 24, has already had a solid taste of NHL action, having skated in 44 regular-season games with the Avalanche over the past two seasons while tallying five goals but no assists. The young center also appeared in six of seven games in Colorado’s first-round playoff loss to the Seattle Kraken this spring.
The Delano, Minnesota product split 2022-23 evenly between the Avalanche and the AHL’s Colorado Eagles, playing at least 30 games in each league. Last year’s big fish undrafted free agent signing out of the University of Minnesota skated in 39 contests with the Avs last season, notching four of his five career goals. He fared much better offensively in the minors, posting six goals and 18 assists for 24 points in 30 games with the Eagles.
It’s impossible to talk about Meyers without discussing his incredulous senior season with the University of Minnesota in 2021-22, which saw him explode for 41 points in 34 games and earned him nods to the U.S. National Team at both the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing and the 2022 IIHF World Championship in Finland.
Next season, Meyers will look to stick with the Avs full-time. Colorado would certainly appreciate it if he could, as cost-effective pieces are increasingly crucial with another season of limited salary cap flexibility. Currently, he’s slated to take on fourth-line center responsibilities, and his ice time will likely creep higher than the 9:35 per game he received last season.
Meyers will be waiver-exempt to start the season, although it’s a designation that won’t last for long. He has just ten NHL games remaining before he loses his exempt status and will require waivers to be assigned to the Eagles.
Re-signing Meyers leaves the Avalanche with $2.025MM in projected cap space with a 21-player roster and captain Gabriel Landeskog on long-term injured reserve, per CapFriendly.
Free Agent Profile: Josh Bailey
Often overlooked among a given year’s unrestricted free agent class are the late additions – unqualified RFAs and bought-out players. Longtime New York Islander Josh Bailey falls into the latter category. Unlike other prominent bought-out names, such as Matt Duchene and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, he remains unsigned as we enter August.
Bailey was one of the more underrated franchise cornerstones in the league for quite a while. Never really viewed as a high-end piece, Bailey didn’t let that stop him from being one of the more consistent Islanders forwards throughout the 2010s. A gifted playmaker, Bailey was money in the bank for between 40 and 60 points and played well enough, no matter who you put him with. He’d begun to drop off after his 30th birthday like so many others, however, leading the Islanders to deal him to the Chicago Blackhawks, along with a 2026 second-round pick, for future considerations last month. Chicago promptly bought him out, making Bailey a UFA for the first time in his 15-year NHL career.
It’s been all quiet on the western front for Bailey as of late. However, reports immediately after Chicago bought out Bailey suggested the Ottawa Senators were circling the veteran winger. It’s a fit that makes a fair bit of sense for both sides, given Ottawa’s lack of scoring depth, especially on their fourth line.
His built-in versatility makes him an attractive option for a bottom-six role as he ages, and he’s still a valuable playmaker and penalty-killer in isolation. His declining speed and skating limit him from being effective in a top-six role, but there are far worse veteran additions to plug-and-play this late into the offseason.
Stats
2022-23: 64 GP, 8-17-25, +3 rating, 2 PIMs, 72 shots, 48.2% CF, 15:08 ATOI
Career: 1057 GP, 184-396-580, -48 rating, 241 PIMs, 1591 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:32 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Any team with any cap space to spare could likely fit Bailey in. He’s unlikely to command over $1MM on a one-year deal and is ineligible for performance bonuses. While he’s unlikely to take a role with a team already filled out on the wings, quite a few teams could use Bailey as an upgrade on their bottom two lines.
As mentioned earlier, Ottawa is quite a clear fit in the Eastern Conference. They have over $5MM in cap space to spare, per CapFriendly. While they still have Shane Pinto to re-sign, he won’t command all of it. Bailey is a significant upgrade over the team’s currently projected fourth-line wingers, Parker Kelly and Egor Sokolov, and he could help catalyze some offense from the team’s third and fourth lines. They could use it after taking a goal-scoring hit in their top six by swapping Alex DeBrincat for Dominik Kubalik.
He could also head out to a team with a winning pedigree – the Colorado Avalanche. After a flurry of offseason additions, including Ross Colton and Ryan Johansen, the team still has a handful of depth forward spots available for competition. Bailey’s a more experienced option than Fredrik Olofsson, who Colorado acquired from the Dallas Stars in exchange for future considerations earlier this summer and promptly extended on a league-minimum contract. If nothing else, he’d give Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar more options to organize his second, third and fourth lines. There are many question marks regarding how the Avs’ opening night lineup card will look in any event.
Projected Contract
Bailey did not appear in our Top 50 UFA rankings list, nor was he eligible, thanks to his buyout. There’s no feasible way his next deal lands anywhere close to his previous $5MM cap hit or even his $3.5MM salary that he was due for 2023-24, especially at this point in the summer. However, a handful of playoff-hopeful or contending teams (as outlined above) could afford the veteran on a deal worth $1MM or less. Given his declining role and production, he’s likely to receive a number in that range from any team that approaches him, regardless of their contention status.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.