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Trade Notes: Karlsson, DeBrincat, Pesce

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It’s not often that a defenseman is traded the summer after a Norris Trophy-winning, 101-point season, but that’s exactly what might happen with Erik Karlsson and the San Jose Sharks. With San Jose looking to rebuild and Karlsson’s historic regular season unable to lift the team out of the NHL’s basement, this summer could bring the second trade of Karlsson’s career. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported on TSN’s Insider Trading program that Karlsson’s representatives and the Sharks had a meeting last week about the player’s future, and the outcome of the meeting was a unified focus between team and player to “try and get a trade done” for next season.

Karlsson, 33, is in possession of a full no-movement clause in his contract meaning he would have final control over any destination. The largest barrier to any potential move isn’t expected to be that clause, though. Instead, it’s likely to be Karlsson’s $11.5MM cap hit, and whether interested teams will be willing to take on the full weight of that hit. (or whether the Sharks will need to retain a portion of the contract) In any case, it appears the Sharks and Karlsson’s camp share a motivation to find a trade outcome before the start of next season.

Some other notes about trade rumors from across the NHL:

    • Also on Insider Trading, TSN’s Chris Johnston reports that the Senators, by filing for arbitration with restricted free agent forward Alex DeBrincat, have “set the window for when they have to trade” the player. Johnston believes the Senators will make a push to get a DeBrincat trade finalized “by the draft this month” if possible. One might remember that DeBrincat was traded to Ottawa on draft day last year, and now based on Johnston’s report it seems he could get dealt on one of hockey’s most significant days once again, if not sooner.
    • Like DeBrincat, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce has the chance to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. On Insider Trading, LeBrun reported that while contract talks on an extension are continuing between Pesce and Carolina, the Hurricanes are “pretty resolute” that they’ll be trading him this summer if they can’t secure his signature on a new deal. LeBrun also adds that the Buffalo Sabres have already inquired about the possibility of trading for Pesce, potentially to be Owen Power’s long-term partner. It’s likely that the widely-respected 28-year-old blueliner would garner significant trade interest if put on the market. He just finished a year where he made a major impact on both ends of the ice, setting a career-high of 30 points while also serving as a leading penalty killer for a Carolina shorthanded unit that consistently ranks among the best in the NHL.

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Ilya Samsonov – The Maple Leafs took a significant risk on Samsonov, trusting him to potentially be their number-one goalie in a season where enormous pressure was placed on the team to finally go on an extended playoff run. Samsonov, now 26, had been exiled from the Washington Capitals after a disappointing 2021-22 season that included some major errors in some high-leverage moments.

Drafted 22nd overall at the 2015 draft, Samsonov was once believed to be the Capitals’ goalie of the future but his inconsistency and inability to seize the void left in Washington’s crease by Braden Holtby’s departure led to him being available for Toronto to snag as an unrestricted free agent.

The team signed him to a one-year $1.8MM deal and he ended up rewarding the team’s faith considerably. He led Toronto netminders with 42 games played and posted a strong .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against-average.

While his playoff performances as a Washington Capital were cause for significant concern, Samsonov’s play in the Maple Leafs’ first-round playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning helped Toronto get the playoff series win they’d been long searching for. While he didn’t quite play up to par against the Florida Panthers (like the rest of his team, to be fair) and had his series end early due to injury, his 2022-23 season could be seen as serving as a major turning point for his career and a moment where he has resurrected his reputation as an up-and-coming netminder.

He’s earned himself a solid pay raise from his $1.8MM deal, but since he has a relatively inconsistent track record he might not be the safest long-term investment.

As for his future in Toronto, there are some questions to answer. The general manager that signed him, Kyle Dubas, is no longer with the organization and the new general manager, Brad Treliving, is coming from a team that has an established veteran netminder in Jacob Markstrom. Might Toronto prefer to add a proven veteran in their crease? And if so, is there going to be enough cap space to re-sign Samsonov to the type of contract his play has merited?

F Nick Abruzzese – With such a sizeable portion of the Maple Leafs’ salary cap space set aside to pay for the team’s core of star players, Toronto will need cheap, energetic, competent players to fill spots lower in their lineup. Abruzzese, 24, fits that profile after a strong first season as a full-time pro.

He scored 16 goals and 48 points in 69 AHL games for the Toronto Marlies and pitched in two assists in his two games of NHL action. With no proven NHL track record to speak of he won’t receive a significant raise from the $850k he earned last season, and as a result, could be in prime position to seize a depth role in Toronto.

Other RFAs: F Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, F Pontus Holmberg, D Victor Mete, D Mac Hollowell, D Filip Kral

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan O’Reilly – The centerpiece acquisition of former GM Kyle Dubas’ flurry of trade deadline moves, O’Reilly looks poised to depart Toronto having improved his leaguewide standing to a considerable degree. In the final stretch of his tenure as a St. Louis Blue, the 2018-19 Selke and Conn Smythe Trophy winner’s significantly declined offensive production was the primary story surrounding his play.

By the time of the trade he had managed only 19 points in 40 games, a 39-point 82-game pace.

That’s a steep decline from the 58 points in 78 games he posted last year, and there was concern that at 32 years old O’Reilly was exiting his prime and was beginning a career-altering decline in form. Then O’Reilly landed in Toronto and he turned that narrative around, managing 11 points in 13 regular-season games and nine points in 11 playoff games.

His heroics at important moments, including a crucial game-tying goal in Game Three against Tampa Bay and two assists in the team’s stunning Game Four comeback showed everyone that O’Reilly still has gas left in the tank.

But as a result, he likely priced himself out of Toronto with his playoff heroics. He’ll be among the top centers available in what is a relatively thin free agent class down the middle and should receive contract offers that exceed what the Maple Leafs are in a position to offer him.

F Michael Bunting – While O’Reilly’s playoff performance changed the narrative around him for the better, the playoffs were not as kind to Bunting, 27. Bunting only managed to find the scoresheet twice in the playoffs despite scoring 23 goals and 49 points in the regular season.

His suspension due to a vicious hit to the head he laid on Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak earned Bunting some scathing criticism, and it left many wondering if he’d played his way out of Toronto, rather than priced his way out as someone such as Zach Hyman had.

Bunting remains a valuable winger who scored 63 points as a 26-year-old NHL rookie, but those questions that sprung up during the playoffs will linger as he considers offers on the open market. Is it possible that Toronto decides they can’t afford to let him walk?

Absolutely, but it feels like the team is headed in a different direction, especially with Matthew Knies penciled into his spot in the team’s top-six at what is likely to be a significantly cheaper price than the cap hit Bunting has earned.

F Alexander Kerfoot – While Kerfoot’s status as a focal point of Toronto’s return from trading Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche might leave a sour taste in the mouths of the Maple Leafs faithful, it isn’t exactly fair to judge Kerfoot against Kadri and the things he achieved in Colorado.

Kerfoot never had the breakout season in Toronto like the one Kadri had in Colorado, but Kerfoot nonetheless had his moments as a Maple Leaf. He scored 51 points in 2021-22 and was the second-highest-scoring Maple Leaf during the team’s infamous 2021 playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens, putting together a six-point performance that exceeded the production of stars such as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Reilly.

He’s a quality third-line forward with the versatility to either play center or along the wings, and he has also been a consistent presence on one of Toronto’s penalty-killing units. There are far worse players to staff a middle-six with than Kerfoot, but after he only managed two points in eleven playoff games it’s possible Toronto will look in a different direction for that area of their lineup.

F David Kampf – Kampf took a step forward after joining Toronto from the Chicago Blackhawks and has proven himself to be a solid defense-first fourth-line center. He was Toronto’s most heavily-used penalty-killing forward over the past two seasons and in that span of time, Toronto’s penalty kill ranks sixth in the NHL with a kill rate of 82%.

Toronto would surely like to have him back but like many of the other players on expiring deals, he may have earned a pay raise that bumps him to an area of pay Toronto won’t be able to match. He’ll be among the top fourth-line centers available on the market in any case and should earn a bump from the $1.5MM he earned this past season.

D Luke Schenn – Schenn has found himself in a different spot than where he was during his first tour of duty with the Maple Leafs. No longer is he a former top prospect whose NHL play has disappointed relative to the expectations placed upon him by the media, now he’s a widely-respected veteran defenseman who can offer gritty, hard-nosed play and two Stanley Cup rings worth of playoff experience.

Schenn earned $850k this past season but will in all likelihood earn at the very least more than $1MM AAV on his next contract, and possibly far more than that. He’s a quality option for a team looking to add a proven veteran defensive defenseman to their mix but perhaps not what Toronto needs with T.J. Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins already in pace along the right-hand side of their defense.

D Justin Holl – Holl’s playoff performances made him a bit of a lightning rod for the Maple Leafs fanbase, but as someone who worked his way up from the ECHL he’s carved out a solid career for himself. He’s been a regular on head coach Sheldon Keefe’s blueline since Keefe first took over the job in 2019-20 and has averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per night for the past three seasons, including as one of the team’s leading penalty killers.

As a right-shot blueliner, Holl may not have a spot in Toronto given the presence of Timmins, Brodie, and Liljegren, but he’ll find his place on the open market and be a solid option for a team looking to beef up its blueline.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Zach Aston-Reese, F Wayne Simmonds, F Radim Zohorna, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jordie Benn, G Erik Kallgren

Projected Cap Space

The presence of Toronto’s highly-paid core of stars makes their cap situation quite complicated, especially as key contract extensions for Matthews, Marner, and William Nylander, among others, will need to be negotiated. As a result, Toronto may not be in a position to make any major, long-term commitments before those deals are finalized. This is likely to impact the players they’ll be able to target on the open market.

CapFriendly projects them to have a little over $9MM in salary cap space, though that number would increase considerably should they manage to find a way to remove Matt Murray and his $4.687MM cap hit from their books. That should be enough to add a few role players, though if they want to make a more sizeable change to their team composition some creativity is likely to be required.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Senators Sale, Canadiens Staff, Knoblauch

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The new owner of the Ottawa Senators was revealed today, with Canadiens minority owner Michael Andlauer proving victorious after a long sale process. But while we now know the identity of the team’s new owner, the team won’t officially change hands for a few more months. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the deal for the team may not close until September, as there remains “a lot of work to be done” and Andlauer must also sell his stake in the Canadiens before taking control of their division rival.

As a result of that wait, no significant changes to the team’s hockey operations department are expected until Andlauer assumes full control of the franchise, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger. Steve Staios, currently an Edmonton Oilers executive, has been widely reported to be of interest to Andlauer as a potentially significant addition to the Senators’ front office, and it’s possible that Andlauer would prefer to have different people in charge of hockey operations than the two figureheads currently in place: general manager Pierre Dorion and head coach D.J. Smith. But while it could very well end up being the case that Andlauer prefers new hires, it seems the current status quo will remain in place through this offseason, an arrangement that could have an impact in the team’s ongoing decision-making regarding star forward Alex DeBrincat.

Some other notes from across the NHL:

  • While a variety of factors influenced the Montreal Canadiens’ fall from 2021 Stanley Cup finalist to league basement-dweller between 2021 and 2022/2023, one significant contributing factor is injuries. The team has been absolutely ravaged by injuries over the past two seasons, including this year when 2022 number-one pick Juraj Slafkovsky and star forward Cole Caufield were among the multitude of Canadiens to suffer season-ending injuries. The Canadiens have placed a high priority on player development at this stage of their rebuild, but head coach Martin St. Louis’ development efforts have been consistently hamstrung by injuries to key young talent. Now, off-ice changes are being made to address this situation. TVA Sports’ Tony Marinaro reports that the Canadiens have parted ways with head physiotherapist Donald Balmforth and head athletic therapist Graham Rynbend, a report that was confirmed by Jean Francois Chaumont of Le Journal de Montreal. 
  • The New York Rangers will retain Kris Knoblauch as their AHL head coach for next season, according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple. Knoblauch was a candidate for the Rangers’ head coaching vacancy and has been the bench boss for the Hartford Wolf Pack for the past four seasons. He led Hartford to the AHL playoffs this past season and upset one of the Eastern Conference’s best teams, the Providence Bruins, in a playoff series. Knoblauch, 44, will look to build on the progress made for Hartford this past season and make a push toward Calder Cup contention.

Wild Notes: Rossi, Goligoski, Gustavsson, Reaves

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The Minnesota Wild’s number-one priority as an organization seems to be finally finding the a true number-one center to build around. When he was drafted with the ninth-overall pick at the 2020 draft, it was believed that Austrian center Marco Rossi had a shot at being that long-awaited franchise-altering pivot. Significant health issues altered the trajectory of Rossi’s development early in his time as a Wild prospect, and while he has been an exceptionally productive player in the AHL (104 points in 116 career games) the soon-to-be 22-year-old hasn’t managed to seize the moment in the NHL with Minnesota.

While he’s still undoubtedly someone the Wild are hoping pans out, the Athletic’s Joe Smith reported today that he believes the Wild would “be open to moving Rossi if the right deal came up,” such as one with a 2023 first-round pick as compensation. (subscription link) The Kirby Dach trade that was made at last year’s draft could serve as a template for this kind of deal, with the Canadiens surrendering a draft pick in order to acquire a high-upside center whose development had been a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Given how significant Dach’s developmental turnaround was under Martin St. Louis in Montreal, it seems possible that an organization confident in its player development abilities might be willing to part with a first-round pick in order to acquire Rossi. Acquiring Rossi could afford a team a quicker turnaround to NHL relevance than developing a brand-new draft pick, so perhaps a team looking to speed up its rebuild or quickly inject some cost-controlled young talent into its roster could be a fit as well.

Some other notes regarding the Wild:

  • Smith’s article touched on quite a few players of interest to this Minnesota offseason, including 1042-game veteran blueliner Alex Goligoski. Smith reports that Goligoski’s preference is to remain in Minnesota for the final year of his contract, but that his $2MM cap hit combined with the Wild’s significant salary cap constraints could complicate things. Goligoski has a full no-movement clause on his contract so he can control his playing future, but after spending much of last season as a healthy scratch one wonders if he’d sanction a move away from Minnesota simply to re-gain a regular spot in an NHL lineup.
  • Perhaps the most significant player the Wild will need to negotiate with this summer is netminder Filip Gustavsson, who had a stellar season. Gustavsson is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent and Smith writes that his next contract “will end up falling into one of three categories: a one-year deal, a three-year deal or a one-year arbitration award.” With top prospect Jesper Wallstedt waiting in the wings, it makes sense that the Wild might not want to invest long-term in Gustavsson, but should the 25-year-old manage to even come close his numbers from this past season in 2023-24 only locking him down for one season could end up a costly mistake.
  • The Wild’s mid-season trade acquisition of enforcer Ryan Reaves injected some much-needed energy and life onto their roster, and he scored 15 points in 61 games helping the team reach the playoffs once again. Smith writes that Reaves, now 36, would like to return to the Wild but is prioritizing maximizing the financial value of his next contract, a deal that could very well end up his last major free-agent cash-in. Reaves reportedly is seeking term on his next deal longer than just one year, so since the Wild are set to be paying nearly $15MM in dead money due to the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, it very well could be that re-signing Reaves is a luxury they cannot afford.

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the St. Louis Blues.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Scott Perunovich – Set to turn 25 in August, Perunovich’s once promising career trajectory was severely impacted by extremely unfortunate injury luck. The left-shot blueliner underwent wrist surgery in March of last year and missed most of this past season after undergoing shoulder surgery in October. He also missed the entirety of the 2020-21 season due to another shoulder surgery.

A 2018 second-round pick, Perunovich had been ranked consistently among the Blues’ top prospects throughout his decorated NCAA career, a tenure at the University of Minnesota-Duluth that included back-to-back National Championships and a Hobey Baker award win.

The promise he showed in college has translated to the AHL, where he’s posted a 1.08 career points-per-game mark as a defenseman.

Unfortunately, though, that impressive scoring rate comes in just 42 career games, and that simple lack of playing time is the most serious obstacle he faces to receiving a significant raise from the $750k he earned this past season. He’s an undoubtedly talented player who smartly took the opportunity to get even more games under his belt by representing the United States at the IIHF World Championships last month, but he’ll need to prove he can stay healthy before he makes a dent in the Blues’ financial plans.

F Logan Brown – Another player who has shown promise but also seen injuries do significant damage to his development, Brown did not take the step forward in St. Louis that he likely hoped for when he received his change-of-scenery trade in 2021. The 2016 11th overall pick is a hulking six-foot-six center whose combination of size and skill has long tantalized scouts.

He’s more recently begun to put things together at the AHL level, scoring 19 points in 21 games for the Springfield Thunderbirds across two seasons but his NHL impact has remained marginal. He’s scored just 17 points in 69 games as a Blue and now at 25 years old, it’s possible St. Louis decides to cut bait rather than extend their hopes that he can develop into something more.

It’s also possible that the Blues opt to retain him at a cap hit similar to his $750k number from last season with the idea of him competing for an NHL spot in training camp and potentially taking on a more permanent role as a top-of-the-lineup player in Springfield.

Other RFAs: F Alexey Toropchenko, F Adam Gaudette, F Hugh McGing, D Tyler Tucker, D Dmitri Samorukov, D Brady Lyle

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Josh Leivo – 30-year-old Leivo set career highs in games played in the NHL this past season but unlike his fellow high-scoring 2021-22 Chicago Wolf, Stefan Noesen, Leivo didn’t reach a new stratosphere of offensive production in the NHL. Noesen, Leivo’s teammate on last season’s Calder Cup-winning AHL team, became a valuable secondary scorer for the Carolina Hurricanes and potted 13 goals and 36 points, as well as eight points in 15 playoff games.

Leivo, on the other hand, only managed four goals and 16 points in 51 games.

As a result, while Noesen took advantage of the opportunity his extremely productive 2021-22 AHL campaign afforded him at the next level, placing himself in a position to receive a significant pay raise, Leivo’s now in the spot where one has to wonder if he’s at his most valuable as a top-of-the-lineup AHL scorer.

That’s something the Blues will need to wrestle with, as there’s clearly some real talent that Leivo offers only he may not be best suited as an NHL regular.

In any case, Leivo’s season had its ups and downs but is unlikely to result in St. Louis struggling to find a way to afford to extend him so he can remain part of their organization.

G Thomas Greiss – While 22-year-old Joel Hofer struggled in two games with the Thunderbirds in the playoffs, he helped lead them to the 2021-22 Calder Cup Final (against Leivo’s Wolves!) and had a stellar 2022-23 regular season, posting a .921 save percentage across 47 games. He’ll turn 23 before the end of the month and per CapFriendly has one year remaining of waiver-exempt status.

So as he remains waiver-exempt for another year, it’s definitely possible the Blues choose to give Hofer one more year of seasoning in the NHL before he transitions to NHL duty in 2024-25. But with Vadim Zherenko poised to take on a larger role in Springfield and two other minor-league goalies under contract (Will Cranley and Colten Ellis) Hofer is more likely ticketed for NHL duty next fall.

That means that Greiss, now 37, is highly unlikely to return to St. Louis for another year as the backup to starter Jordan Binnington. The 368-game veteran’s .896 save percentage mirrored the .891 mark he posted last season with the Detroit Red Wings and means Greiss is now two full seasons removed from being an above-average backup goalie. There could still be some leaguewide interest in adding Greiss as an experienced and affordable backup option, but if that’s the case that interest is unlikely to come from the Blues.

F Matthew Highmore – Highmore, an undrafted 27-year-old forward took a big step forward at the AHL level this season, scoring 19 goals and 61 points for the Thunderbirds, a mark that placed him second in team scoring behind sniper Martin Frk. In addition to his exceptional AHL scoring numbers Highmore offers 139 games of NHL experience, and he could be one of the more in-demand AHL free agents, and as a result could earn a more lasting NHL opportunity for next season, similar to what Kiefer Sherwood got from the Nashville Predators this past season.

With Frk headed overseas, it’s possible the Blues prioritize re-signing Highmore to maintain some continuity at the top of their AHL lineup. Though it would be a mistake to not also note that other clubs looking to beef up their AHL lineups are likely to be after Highmore as well.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Pitlick, F Nathan Todd, F Luke Witkowski, D Steven Santini

Projected Cap Space

The Blues are projected to have around $7.5MM in available cap space by CapFriendly, a number that’s not exactly huge but also not going to be eaten into by any significant contract extensions for restricted free agents. GM Doug Armstrong could create some more space by moving out a pricey veteran defenseman such as Nick Leddy, Marco Scandella, or even Torey Krug, and such a trade would open up even more avenues for the Blues to add to their team. Regardless of what specifically the team does, they have a decent purse available to them to make additions, but without moving someone out they might not be able to shop at the top of the market.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Fantilli, Viel, Bayreuther

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In any other year, a player like University of Michigan forward and Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli would be a near-guarantee to be the first overall pick at the draft. But this season happens to also feature generational talent Connor Bedard, and as a result, Fantilli is likely to find himself headed to the Anaheim Ducks rather than the Chicago Blackhawks. Whether Fantilli heads to Anaheim to play with their NHL team in the fall (or in the NHL with whatever non-Anaheim team drafts him, should something surprising happen on draft day) or chooses to return to college hockey for another year is still up in the air.

Fantilli himself addressed the topic in a draft diary posted to NHL.com, writing “I will wait until after the NHL Draft before making a decision on whether or not I will return to Michigan for 2023-24.” Fantilli, who scored a whopping 65 points in 36 games for the Wolverines, expressed disappointment at failing to win a National Championship at Michigan but stressed that his decision would be more “about development and being able to mature as a person” than any lingering desire to win a national title. It certainly seems as though Fantilli could hold his own in the NHL next year but it seems that with players such as 2022 third-overall pick Logan Cooley and 2021 first-overall pick Owen Power taking some extra time in college to develop, Fantilli may opt for that route himself as well.

Some other notes from across the NHL:

  • Undrafted forward Jeffrey Viel, now 26, was slated to be a restricted free agent this offseason with a strong likelihood of continuing his run with the San Jose Sharks into a sixth season. Now, it seems his time with the organization that plucked him out of the QMJHL as an undrafted free agent will be coming to an end. Viel’s agent, Allain Roy, relayed to The Athletic’s Corey Masisiak that “Viel will enter the market on July 1 and look for a new opportunity.” (subscription link) Viel only played four NHL games this season and as a result, qualified for Group Six unrestricted free agency. A valued leader, Viel scored 15 goals and 31 points in the AHL this past season and should be of interest to other teams looking to beef up their AHL middle-six.
  • Another player set to change teams this summer is defenseman Gavin Bayreuther of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The 29-year-old played in 94 games for Columbus over the past two seasons, seizing opportunities provided by the multitude of injuries that have hit the Blue Jackets’ defense in that span of time. But now that the team has added considerable talent to their blueline in recent days (through trades for Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson) they have quite the logjam on defense. Columbus has eight defensemen on one-way contracts at the moment and that doesn’t include David Jiricek, the 2022 sixth-overall pick who will likely play his way into NHL consideration quickly in the fall. As a result, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports that “it seems a safe bet” that Bayreuther will hit the open market and move on from the club he’s been with for the past three seasons. (subscription link)

Draft Notes: Michkov, Canadiens, Hrabal

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Despite the fact that there’s virtually no mystery as to who the Chicago Blackhawks will take with the first overall pick at the draft at the end of the month, this year’s event is shaping up to be one with quite a bit of intrigue. Teams behind the Blackhawks have to grapple with a significant dilemma: whether to take a leap of faith to draft Russian winger Matvei Michkov. Michkov is widely regarded to be in the conversation as the most talented player in the draft, and he scored 20 points in 27 games in the KHL after being loaned to HK Sochi, an incredibly productive rate for a draft-year player. But his contract situation with SKA St. Petersburg will keep him in the KHL for at least three years, and with the uncertainty regarding NHL-KHL relations, it’s fair to wonder whether Michkov is worth the risk when other talented players are on the board.

The Athletic’s Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin report word from folks at the NHL’s scouting combine in Buffalo who say that Michkov “might be available outside the top-10.”(subscription link) This would mean that each of the teams inside the draft’s top-10 picks opted not to take the risk on Michkov, highlighting just how risky some front offices deem the selection. That being said, given how talented Michkov appears to be, it would also be no shock to see him go well inside the top-1o. But the bottom line based on this reporting is that while we have a very clear sense of where Connor Bedard will be headed, the landing spot of one of the other best talents in this class is anyone’s guess.

Some other notes about the 2023 draft, which will take place in Nashville on June 28th and 29th:

  •  Basu and Godin got the impression at the combine that it “doesn’t seem very likely” the Canadiens will draft Michkov with the number-five pick should he be on the board. Instead, they feel the team is giving serious consideration to two other top prospects with that pick: polished Austrian defenseman David Reinbacher and versatile American winger Ryan Leonard. Reinbacher is a valuable right-shot blueliner who impressed playing against men in Switzerland’s top pro league, while Leonard is a competitive winger who alongside fellow first-round talents Will Smith and Gabe Perreault shattered U.S. National Team Development Program scoring records.
  • The Athletic’s Corey Masisiak reports that the San Jose Sharks have on multiple occasions during the season met with Omaha Lancers netminder Michael Hrabal via a team representative. (subscription link) Hrabal, who was measured at nearly six-foot-seven at the combine, is firmly in the mix to be the first goaltender selected at the draft, and it seems the Sharks could be eyeing him as a potential goalie of the future. The Sharks did not sign 2021 81st overall pick Benjamin Gaudreau to an entry-level contract and may enter this offseason with a priority placed on improving the quality of their goaltending prospect pipeline.

Free Agent Focus: Seattle Kraken

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Seattle Kraken.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Vince Dunn – Dunn, who will be 27 next season, is by a wide margin the most significant pending free agent the Kraken have on their roster.

The left-shot blueliner is set to receive a sizeable raise from the $4MM AAV he played this season on after scoring 14 goals and 64 points this past season, a total that tied him for tenth in the NHL in scoring by a defenseman.

Dunn has quickly emerged as a dominant force in transition and the type of blueliner that can make a significant impact in the offensive zone.

He’s not a sheltered, offense-only contributor either as he logged nearly 24 minutes per night for the Kraken, the highest average on his team. It seems as though it’s only a matter of time before Dunn becomes the highest-paid player on Seattle’s books.

F Daniel Sprong – While not quite to the same degree as Dunn, Sprong had an impressive breakout 2022-23 campaign. Despite averaging just 11:25 time on ice per night, Sprong finished his season with 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games, which is a 26-goal, 57-point 82-game pace. There aren’t many players who could manage those types of numbers with such little ice time, yet Sprong, owner of a lethal shot, managed to do exactly that.

A former top prospect of the Pittsburgh Penguins, it had been long believed that Sprong held some untapped offensive upside but until this year he had failed to show more than sporadic flashes of offensive brilliance. The question for the Kraken to answer, then, is whether they believe Sprong’s breakout is sustainable.

If they think he can repeat this performance as a productive bottom-sixer, he’ll easily earn a sizeable raise from his $750k AAV. But if Seattle is more uncertain about his future, perhaps weary to invest too greatly into a player with a track record of inconsistency (who didn’t have a good playoffs despite Seattle making it to the second round) then these negotiations could get dicey, especially since Sprong is arbitration-eligible.

D Will Borgen – Borgen took a major step forward in his career in 2022-23, playing in all 82 games for the Kraken as well as all 14 of their playoff contests. He was a steady presence on the Kraken’s second and third pairings who also pitched in on the team’s second-unit penalty kill, and his play this season likely merits a decent raise from the $900k he cost the team on his last deal.

Other RFAs: F Morgan Geekie, F Kole Lind, D Cale Fleury

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Carson Soucy – Operating in a similar role to Borgen, Soucy managed to play nearly all of the Kraken’s games this past season and averaged just over 16 minutes time on ice with nearly two minutes each night spent on the penalty kill.

His offensive production declined slightly (from 21 points in 64 games last season to 16 in 78 games this year) but overall his play remained steady. He was a dependable defensive defenseman and offers the type of size and muscle on the blueline that many teams covet.

The Kraken are likely to want to keep Soucy around to maintain the quality of their defense, but given how well he’s done in Seattle the team may have a tough time matching the outside offers that come his way.

With 2021 35th overall pick Ryker Evans a breakout star in his first AHL campaign (he has 19 points in 20 playoff games at the time of writing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds) and likely to be pushing for an NHL spot in training camp, perhaps the Kraken feel comfortable letting Soucy walk and opening the door for Evans to claim his vacated spot on the left side of the team’s defense.

G Martin Jones – 33-year-old netminder Martin Jones’ numbers weren’t much to write home about, with his .887 save percentage in 48 games an especially weak mark, he does have one number really working in his favor: 27. That’s the number of games Jones won for the Kraken, and he posted an overall 27-13-3 record. He gave Seattle enough to take home two points in the vast majority of the games he played, and in a backup role there’s a lot of value in that.

With Chris Driedger and Philipp Grubauer already on their books and Daccord also in the mix, it seems relatively unlikely that Seattle will opt to bring Jones back. But although his save percentage was quite poor, he did win far more often than he lost and therefore put forth a solid argument to receive a new contract similar to the $2MM one he received last summer.

G Joey Daccord – Like the aforementioned Evans, Daccord has played extremely well with AHL Coachella Valley and his current performance likely places him firmly in the NHL conversation heading into next season. He could possibly end this season as a Calder Cup-winning goalie and he has posted a .927 save percentage through 20 games for the Firebirds. He was solid in the regular season as well, and at 26 years old looks ready to take the next step and become an NHL backup.

Whether he takes that step in Seattle is an open question, as Driedger remains on the books at a $3.5MM cap hit next season and Grubauer firmly re-established himself in Seattle by leading the franchise to their first-ever playoff series win.

In any case, he looks to be this year’s Charlie Lindgren, as Lindgren placed himself in a similar circumstance a year ago via strong performances for the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds and that summer earned himself a $1.1MM AAV deal to become the backup for the Washington Capitals. Perhaps that’s what’s in store for Daccord should he hit the open market.

Other UFAs: F Ryan Donato, F Joonas Donskoi, F Jesper Froden, F John Hayden, F Austin Poganski, F Alex True, F Carsen Twarynski, D Gustav Olofsson, D Brogan Rafferty, G Christopher Gibson

Projected Cap Space

This is where Seattle are in decent shape. CapFriendly projects them to have over $20MM in cap space, though that figure will be eaten into considerably by an extension for Dunn. With significant dollars set to expire in the near future (Jordan Eberle has one year and $5.5MM left on his deal, and Alexander Wennberg has one year and $4.5MM left on his contract, to give two examples) the Kraken are in a prime position to invest significant dollars in their team this summer. So far they’ve opted to build a team that prioritizes balance and depth, but maybe the significant financial flexibility they have this summer will lead them to chase some stars, similar to what the Vegas Golden Knights did following their first experience of playoff success.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Pesce, Third Overall Pick, Florida Everblades

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The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s most consistently competitive franchises in recent years and a major reason for their success has been the fact that they’ve thus far avoided giving out the types of inefficient, expensive contracts that eat up too much salary cap space and have sunk other team’s competitive hopes. A byproduct of that tendency to stick to their own valuations of players and not let the market dictate their plans has been that they’ve seen some talented players leave, players other clubs might have found a way to retain. Players such as Dougie Hamilton and Vincent Trocheck are examples of this, and perhaps the next player to be added to that list could be defenseman Brett Pesce.

Per a report from The Athletic, “If Pesce’s demands aren’t realistic to what Carolina had in mind” for his next contract, the Hurricanes “may very well trade him this summer.” (subscription link) Pesce, 28, will see his $4.025MM AAV contract expire next summer and could be looking to secure a significant raise after seeing himself go underpaid due to that contract relative to the immense on-ice value he’s provided. Pesce set a new career high in points this past season and is widely respected as a top-of-the-line defenseman in his own end. He’d likely fetch a significant return if traded, so it seems the Hurricanes may consider trading Pesce this summer in order to recoup some value rather than risk retaining him through the expiry of his contract next summer, only to see him leave for another team with Carolina receiving no compensation in return.

Some other notes from across the NHL:

  • With the Blue Jackets aggressively pursuing upgrades to their roster that will help them win in the short-term, many have wondered if the Blue Jackets would consider trading the third overall pick in this year’s draft in order to get a quality, established player. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen spoke on the prospect of trading the pick, according to the Columbus Dispatch’s Brian Hedger. Kekalainen said it would take “an awful lot” in order to convince the team to trade that pick, and although they’ve received trade calls nothing yet has come close to being enough for the team to consider making that deal. The Blue Jackets have long sought after a true first-line center to build their forward corps around, and with promising pivots such as Leo Carlsson and Will Smith expected to be available for Columbus to draft, it seems Kekalainen would need to be truly wowed by an offer in order to move the third pick.
  • The ECHL’s Florida Everblades secured their second consecutive Kelly Cup championship last night, sweeping the league’s finals against the Idaho Steelheads, a team that went on a historic run during the regular season. The Steelheads went 58-11-3 and stormed to the Kelly Cup finals but couldn’t find an answer to former University of North Dakota netminder Cam Johnson and the Everblades. Former Merrimack College captain Tyler Irvine scored the championship-clinching goal midway through the third period of the contest, leading the Everblades to the third title in their franchise history.

Devils Notes: Wood, Bahl, Boqvist

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With two major restricted free agents to negotiate contract extensions with in Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt, it’s no surprise that the New Jersey Devils may be forced to say goodbye to some familiar faces. Damon Severson, a quality blueliner with over 600 games played as a Devil, was traded yesterday and, according to recent reporting, another veteran Devil could follow him out the door: Miles Wood.

The Hockey News’ Kristy Flannery relays word from Wood’s agent, Peter Fish, “that there has been no communication” with Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald on a possible Wood contract extension. While it’s likely that the Devils would ideally like to keep Wood, their salary cap situation and other existing needs are likely to force his exit in free agency. As a result, Fish and Wood are preparing to hit the open market on July 1st. Wood will hope to find the right contract in his first trip to unrestricted free agency, and after scoring 13 goals and 27 points this past season his rare combination of size and speed could be of interest to other teams.

Some other notes about the Devils:

  • Flannery’s article also contained updates on the status of restricted free agent defenseman Kevin Bahl, whose $795k contract is set to expire. The soon-to-be 23-year-old emerged as a lineup regular for the Devils later in their season and is widely expected to be a part of the team’s blueline mix next season. Given that he has just 66 games of NHL experience, Bahl’s next contract shouldn’t break the bank, though the defensive upside the hulking six-foot-six Bahl possesses could be factored into the equation as well, potentially raising the price tag of any new deal. Bahl’s agent, David Gagner, confirmed to Flannery that he and Fitzgerald “are engaging in preliminary talks,” and it could be that the Devils would prefer to get some cost certainty on Bahl’s next deal before finalizing the Meier/Bratt contracts.
  • 24-year-old forward Jesper Boqvist’s agent Peter Wallen relayed to Flannery that “there has been no communication with Fitzgerald and the Devils” on any new contract as of five days ago. Boqvist emerged as a lineup regular this past season scoring 10 goals and 21 points in 70 games. The 2017 36th overall pick has scored well at lower levels and the Devils are likely hoping to retain him on an affordable deal so they can fill out some depth roles in their lineup with young, energetic homegrown players such as Boqvist on cheaper contracts.

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