PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Senators, Breakout Player, Playoffs, Salary Floor

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including a prediction for a breakout player, potential teams to make and miss the playoffs, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Spaced-Cowboy: Who do you expect to be the top 6 forward group for the Leafs come opening night or perhaps the deadline?

Let’s get the easy ones out of the way first.  The top two centers will continue to be Auston Matthews and John Tavares.  On the wing, William Nylander and Matthew Knies, fresh off a new deal this summer, are sure bets to play similar roles as they did last season.

But then it starts to get interesting.  I’d pencil in Matias Maccelli for one of the remaining winger spots.  It’s not that Toronto paid a high price to get him that warrants a look in a key role, nor does his performance from last season which left a lot to be desired.  But he’s a pure playmaker and with Mitch Marner departing, Maccelli could plausibly slide into that same role alongside Matthews and Knies to try to keep the same general line structure intact.  He showed enough skill in Arizona to make me think that he can have some success in that role.

The other winger might be Max Domi, more by process of elimination.  I expect head coach Craig Berube to put a third line together that will have some size and defensive acumen with a trio of newcomers Dakota Joshua and Joshua Roy with possibly Bobby McMann on the other wing.  Domi doesn’t fit on that line, nor is he a great fit on the fourth line either.  At this point, Toronto’s preference is probably to keep him on the wing anyway so his spot on the second line feels like a mixture of fit and convenience.  Easton Cowan could play his way into the mix but starting with the AHL Marlies feels like the likeliest outcome.

Forecasting the trade deadline is a little difficult as like many, I don’t think Toronto is done yet this summer.  We know they want to move out David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok and doing so would greatly change their salary cap forecast, unless that money is going to Jack Roslovic who has been linked to them for a while now (but might not supplant Domi in that top-six spot anyway).  If they wind up opening up more room before the season and hold it heading into the deadline, they could afford a top-end acquisition while if they can only move one and spend those savings plus more on Roslovic, they could be shopping in more of the secondary market.  How they operate these next few weeks could materially impact their plans in March.

sluggersdad: What is Ottawa’s next move in upgrading their roster? Thanks…

This is a hard one to project.  They have nearly $4.3MM in cap space per PuckPedia which has them in a good spot in theory to add before the season starts.  However, we also know that they are a ‘cash over cap’ team as owner Michael Andlauer alluded to back in June.  Why that matters is that because of that status, GM Steve Staios acknowledged that he wasn’t going to have the green light to spend to the cap ceiling this summer.  So, while they have close to $4.3MM in cap room, how much budget room do they have left?

There’s also the matter of bonuses, of which they have $3.75MM between Claude Giroux and Lars Eller.  Some of them are pretty easy to reach based on games played while others will require some playoff success as well.  But for a cash over cap franchise, any achieved bonuses become payable when reached.  Honestly, I’m not sure they have much, if any, wiggle room in the budget right now to upgrade their roster.

I’d like to give you a specific answer here but in the short term, I don’t think they’re going to do anything.  I could see them sniffing around the PTO market a little bit, especially on the back end if it looks like Nick Jensen is indeed going to miss some time to start the season even though he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery and maybe there’s a minimum-salary contract that comes out of that.  But beyond that, their next move might be at the trade deadline when they have a better sense of their revenue situation that will dictate if they can actually go ahead and add to their player cost budget.  At that point, it would be assess the team’s biggest need and go from there.

NhaTrang: Training camp looms soon, so it’s time for me to come out with my annual “Tage Thompson” question for Brian: who is the guy who comes out of absolutely nowhere to be a significant impact player this season?

Unfortunately, my track record continues to go in the wrong direction.  Thompson was a great pick the first time.  Taylor Raddysh had 20 goals the year I picked him but wasn’t a big breakout player.  I was a year early on Morgan Geekie as it turns out; I picked him in his 39-point year, not his 33-goal effort last season.  And last year’s was arguably the worst one as Kirby Dach battled injuries, as did his projected linemate in Patrik Laine.  The end result was 22 points in 57 games so that one’s a whiff.

For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  Given my recent track record, it’s tempting to change it but I’ll continue to stick with it for this year.

I had my best pick with Buffalo so it’s time to go back to that well with winger Zach Benson.  Yes, his sophomore year wasn’t really any better on paper than his rookie campaign but 28 points in 75 games is still respectable for someone who still could have been playing at the major junior level.  And the underlying numbers were pretty solid.  Benson should have a top-six role this season (possibly even playing with Thompson) and I expect him to have a breakout effort.  If all goes well, doubling last year’s point total could be doable and that would be a nice rebound after last year’s pick.

Breakaway: 4-in and 4-out.

Name one team from each division that made the playoffs last year that will not make the playoffs this year. And what four teams replace them?

Atlantic: I would say Toronto and Tampa Bay remain safe bets to get back in.  Florida should be unless Matthew Tkachuk’s absence proves to be a big problem and they start out how they played down the stretch last season before flipping the script in the playoffs.  Ottawa is more or less the same and on the way up so I’m pretty comfortable penciling them in as well.  By process of elimination, that would mean my pick would be Montreal.  They had some good luck on the injury front last year and their underlying numbers weren’t great.  I could see a scenario where they actually play a bit better this season but instead of just making the playoffs, they just miss them.

The challenge is that I have to pick one of the other three to replace them, something I’m not overly confident in.  I expect Boston’s lack of offense to be their downfall and as much as I think Buffalo is capable of improving, their annual self-destruction makes it hard to actually predict that happening.  So I guess it’s Detroit by default with John Gibson giving their goaltending enough of a boost.  But really, this side of the bracket could largely remain the same next season.

Metropolitan: Carolina is always a top regular season team and they’ve improved so they’re in.  New Jersey slipped down the stretch due to injuries but I still think they’re on the way up so I’d have them in.  On the one hand, Washington won the division last year and didn’t change their roster up much but on the other hand, many felt they were a bubble team at best heading into last season.  Did they overachieve?  I guess since I have to pick one to fall out of the race, it’s them.

On the other end, I don’t expect Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or the Islanders to be real threats.  Columbus is on the way up but as I noted in a recent mailbag, I don’t trust their goaltending to be good enough to get them in there.  That leaves the Rangers.  Things have to be better for them this season, doesn’t it?  Odds being odds, some of their underachievers will turn things around which might be enough to get them back in.

Central: I see no reason to take Dallas or Colorado out.  Winnipeg may very well drop a bit but as long as Connor Hellebuyck remains one of the top netminders, they should be fine.  That leaves St. Louis and Minnesota.  I could make a case for either one making or missing but I’ll go with the Blues continuing their strong play under Jim Montgomery and getting a Wild Card spot and the Wild missing.  For all the cap space they had this summer, they didn’t get a whole lot better unless Vladimir Tarasenko has a resurgence.  A full season from Kirill Kaprizov would help but given Jesper Wallstedt’s struggles in the AHL last year, their goaltending is more of a question mark than they probably hoped.

As for who gets in, Chicago is a safe no.  I think Nashville will be better than last year and they have the veteran talent to surprise and get back in.  But I’ll go with Utah, a team that’s slowly getting better and just added a top-six talent in JJ Peterka.  That, coupled with continued improvement from their young core, means that this could be the year for them to get back in.

Pacific: There’s no reason to think Edmonton and Vegas won’t get back in.  I have no reason to think the Kings won’t get back in either but since I have to pick one who made it to miss, I guess it’s them as the third-place team.

San Jose isn’t ready to push for a playoff spot yet.  Anaheim is better and a bit of a Wild Card but I think they’re still on the outside for one more year.  Seattle can’t stop treading water with a core group that’s not good enough so they’re probably in the same boat as a year ago.  That leaves Calgary and Vancouver.  I feel Dustin Wolf made the Flames more competitive than they actually were so them taking a step back wouldn’t surprise me.  That would mean Vancouver, a team that struggled mightily last year, finds a way to turn it around.  Having said that, five Central teams and three Pacific teams might be what happens again.

SirCobblestone: How do you think teams with low cap hits (San Jose, Chicago) will navigate the ELC of players worthy of staying in the show while respecting the cap floor? (23 roster player limit also.)

This cap part of this question shouldn’t be overly difficult this season.  All 32 teams are already above the $70.6MM floor and once Anaheim eventually signs Mason McTavish, every team should be $5MM clear of that floor.  Eventually, once they start selling, they’ll open up some space but there will surely be salary retention on some players while if they wait until closer to the trade deadline to make those moves, they should be able to comfortably stay above the floor.  Any achieved bonuses from their entry-level players would also count on the books this season, also helping them stay above that minimum spending amount.

As to the roster element, most of the lower-spending teams have veteran fillers on their roster that aren’t really part of their plans.  They’re placeholders, if you will, until those entry-level prospects show they’re ready.  And when they’re ready, they’ll get the spot and the veteran will either be traded or waived and demoted to the minors.

I’ll use a San Jose example since you brought them up.  Let’s say Sam Dickinson shows in training camp that he’s ready for NHL duty, or at least a look with the Sharks to start.  Yes, they already have eight blueliners on their roster but someone like Vincent Desharnais is clearly not part of their long-term plans.  He was acquired as a low-cost roster filler before they knew they’d be adding three veteran blueliners over the summer.  If they have to trade or waive him to open up a spot for Dickinson, they’re not going to think twice about it, they’ll just do it.  And if it’s the latter with him passing through unclaimed, the net savings to San Jose would only be just over $200K, barely enough to make a difference from a cap perspective while a player in and a player out keeps them in compliance with the roster limit.

I think you might be ahead of the game with this question.  A few years from now when the cap is much higher and more teams are operating with an internal budget that’s closer to the floor than the ceiling, I could see this question being asked as those teams might not have pricey placeholder veterans anymore but rather lower-cost ones.  Perhaps at that point, this could be an issue but for the upcoming season, teams should be able to navigate through this just fine.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.