PHR Mailbag: Robertsons, Kings, Bruins, Hockey Canada

The Robertson brothers get plenty of attention in this edition of the PHR Mailbag.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more to run from our latest call for questions.

bottlesup: As a Stars fan, I would prefer to keep Robertson under any circumstance; if things took a turn for the worst, though, what do you think a theoretical trade package would look like in return?

I know Jason Robertson’s name was out there in trade speculation but that felt more like a speculative way to fix a cap problem that only would have been created had they made a big splash in free agency.  And given that there were very few core players who made it to the open market, I think the idea of trading him was more hypothetical than realistic.  That is, for now at least.

If we look ahead a year, Dallas is still going to be tight to the cap ceiling.  Yes, nearly $28MM in cap space per PuckPedia for 2026-27 sounds great but with Robertson and potentially Thomas Harley heading for double-digit AAV contracts, things are going to get pretty tight pretty quickly.  But that’s a ‘problem’ they can kick down the road to next summer when he’ll be a restricted free agent so I wouldn’t be worried about a trade just yet.

Now, as to your hypothetical, that could go a few different ways.  If they want a top-line forward back that just makes a bit less money, it could be close to a one-for-one swap.  I think that would be their Plan A.  Plan B would be a second-line winger making around half of Robertson’s projected cost (so the player would be in the $5MM to $6MM range), a top prospect who is nearly NHL ready (think someone around Mavrik Bourque’s readiness as of a year ago), and some help on the right side of the defense that would take up most of the rest of the savings.  Basically, fill two important roster spots for the price of one with near-term help coming from the prospect as well.  There’s always a futures-based return but they’d have to have something in place to replace Robertson before they could do that.

Having said all that, I think they find a way to keep Robertson in the fold long-term unless things don’t go as planned this coming season and GM Jim Nill decides a roster shakeup is needed.

bigalval: What are the chances that the Kings could bring Jason Robertson back home? I know they have interest in him and Dallas is near the cap. What would it take to get him?

Let’s address the cap stuff first.  There is a relatively easy way for Dallas to open up the year with a bit of flexibility on the cap and that’s with not carrying a full roster.  If they carry just 22 skaters, they should easily start with a little over $1MM in flexibility, barring any injuries in training camp.  They can shuttle Lian Bichsel down on off days with paper transactions (they’re still legal this season before the restrictions come for 2026-27) as well so I don’t think they’re in a spot where they have to move money right now.

As for the Kings, they’ve burned up most of their cap space this summer from GM Ken Holland’s spending frenzy in free agency where he brought in a bunch of extra depth.  Per PuckPedia, they have less than $3MM in cap room while Robertson makes $7.75MM.  They’d have to send out a good chunk of money to make a move.  That makes adding him without taking away a core piece extremely difficult.

If we look at the scenarios above, I think we can rule out a futures-based return simply because Dallas probably can’t acquire a Robertson-level replacement elsewhere at this time of the offseason.  But let’s see if there’s a fit in the other two scenarios.

First, the player-for-player type of swap.  Kevin Fiala makes slightly more than Robertson this season but he has three more years left on his contract which would be appealing to Dallas.  But there’s a notable drop-off in production between the two so Dallas would want more.  The hope is that Quinton Byfield is on the way up development-wise but one-for-one, he’s not going to cut it for the Stars either.  Up front, there isn’t anyone else worth even considering in a one-for-one swap; Adrian Kempe had more points than either of them but as a pending UFA, he could be commanding something not far off what Robertson could get next summer in restricted free agency.  Unless Los Angeles adds something substantial to either Fiala or Byfield, it’s probably not a great fit.

The problem is that their Plan B scenario that I mentioned earlier is an even lesser fit.  Players like Trevor Moore or Alex Laferriere are the players making around half of what Robertson is now and they barely hit 40 points last year.  That’s too steep a drop-off.  In terms of a prospect who’s near-ready, there’s not a lot that fit the bill.  Brandt Clarke is a little past that but he might be the closest that would be palatable.  And as for proven RD help (not just prospect RD help like Clarke), they just lost Cody Ceci so they’re probably not trading back for him and Drew Doughty isn’t going anywhere.  Basically, if I were Nill, I’d ask for Clarke as the add-on in a Fiala or Byfield swap and keep it simple.  And that’s a steep price for the Kings to pay.  Robertson would certainly help Los Angeles but I think there are some other teams whose rosters might better align with what Dallas might be looking for if they do move him.

Spaced-Cowboy: I’m more curious about a different Robertson but my Leafs bias is showing.

Let’s give the other Robertson some attention now.  Nicholas Robertson recently signed a one-year deal worth $1.825MM to avoid salary arbitration.  But it doesn’t do a whole lot to avoid any of the speculation surrounding his future with Toronto.  He still doesn’t really fit the roster, especially the direction that GM Brad Treliving appears to be taking it.

On the other hand, trading him would have been easier a year ago than it is now.  Last season, he made $875K, barely above the league minimum and an amount that could be buried in the minors if things didn’t go well and he cleared waivers.  But $1.825MM isn’t as easy to get off the books.  Fewer teams have that type of flexibility to absorb the deal in full while if they’re making a swap of young players in need of a change of scenery, expectations will be higher since the other team is parting with someone of at least some value.  Robertson only has 56 points in his NHL career thus far and while he has shown a quality shot, he doesn’t do enough to play in the top six and the rest of his game makes him an iffier fit in the bottom six.  How many teams out there have a top-six spot for him where he could potentially thrive?  Do any of them?

With that in mind, while the fit isn’t great and Robertson probably wouldn’t mind being moved, I don’t see anything changing for him in the future.  For better or worse, he’s probably staying on Toronto’s roster and hoping to get some top-nine minutes.  In that scenario, I expect this season will be a lot like the last two and we’ll be speculating about the potential of trade again before too long.

VonBrewski: Don Sweeney is selling a “Bridge Year”??? More like a flaming bag of dog crap….Will they be a top-10 pick? I think yes.

Is he really selling a bridge year?  I think his public statements are more along the lines of intending to be a playoff team while a bridge year would be one where they actually took a step back and looked toward the future.  Basically, something like they did at the deadline last season but over a full year this time around.

Frankly, I think a bridge year would have made more sense for them over what they did this summer.  In a vacuum, most of the contracts they signed made sense beyond Tanner Jeannot but they put a lot of time, effort, and money into making their team tougher to play against when that wasn’t the reason that they missed the playoffs last season.  They missed the playoffs last year because of their struggles to score offensively, coupled with a subpar showing from Jeremy Swayman.  Viktor Arvidsson could help with the offence but adding more fourth-line depth in Sean Kuraly and Michael Eyssimont over more scoring help felt like patching a weakness that wasn’t really there.

I do think they will have a top-ten pick although it will be closer to tenth than first.  Getting Hampus Lindholm back and having a full season from Charlie McAvoy will help and I expect Jeremy Swayman to bounce back.  That will raise the floor of this group above the other bottom feeders.  But it’s hard to see the Bruins scoring enough to win consistently.  They’ll get some 3-2 victories along the way, sure, but teams near the bottom of the league in goals generally don’t make the playoffs and I suspect they’re going to be near the bottom of the league in that regard.

Gmm8811: Now that the Hockey Canada trial is over…how long do you think Bettman will make the players wait to be reinstated? I’d like to see them allowed back now. They’ve paid a fair penalty already for being found not guilty. Do any of their former teams still hold their rights?

There was actually a notable event earlier this week on that front with TSN’s Rick Westhead reporting that the not guilty verdict for the players wouldn’t be appealed.  Theoretically, had there been an appeal, that could have been enough for the league to say they were still ineligible pending the outcome of that appeal.  But that won’t happen now.

Having said that, I don’t think Gary Bettman has much appetite to reinstate those players anytime soon.  The statement released by the league indicates that they have concerns over the conduct of those players.  To quickly turn around and clear them to play after that statement would be surprising.

While these aren’t direct comparisons, I think back to how things were handled with Joel Quenneville and Stan Bowman.  Some time elapsed and then as a team wanted to at least seriously consider hiring them, the reinstatement process was handled very quietly behind the scenes.  When he was still with Montreal, Logan Mailloux went through a similar process where he was ineligible to play and then when he was entering a season where it looked like he could be a recall candidate, he went through the approval process and all of that was done without an announcement.  I’m sure their preference is to follow a similar process here, let some time pass by and then consider reinstatement if and when a team indicates to the league that they’d like to consider signing one of them.  I’m not sure the NHLPA will let that much time go by but I don’t expect Bettman and the NHL to willingly reinstate the five players quickly.

As for the rights question, all five players were non-tendered by their now former organizations at the expiration of their contracts, making them unrestricted free agents.  They’ll remain UFAs until they’re reinstated which I don’t expect will be anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.