Uncategorized News & Rumors

With the Columbus Blue Jackets signing Sam Gagner to a one-year, $650K contract earlier this week, it seems that a new bar has been set for the unrestricted free agents still available on the market. Gagner, though he struggled last season, is still young and has a history of strong point production, yet settled for a contract that is over $4MM less than he was paid per year in his previous deal. While it is unlikley (and in most cases impossible) for any of those still looking for a contract to accept that kind of pay cut, it seems that bargain deals are the only deals being offered in a deep, but stagnant August market. While the destinations of the following players are still up in the air, their values have changed significantly since July 1st. Here is an updated prediction of what some of our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents and other notable players will sign for before the puck drops on the 2016-17 season:

Kris Russell (#12) – 2 years, $4.5MM

Russell remains our top-ranked unsigned free agent so far, and considering the hype that he was given prior to free agency as one of the best available defenseman in a shallow market for blue line help, it is shocking to many around the hockey world that he remains unsigned. The shock is much worse for Russell himself, who was reportedly looking to sign a long-term deal for $5MM+ per season. At this point, a deal like that seems far from the realm of possibility. Unfortunately for Russell, is playing style does not make him a darling of the analytics movement, which could be a primary reason for the surprising lack of interest. That, and his ineffectiveness with the Dallas Stars after coming over from the Calgary Flames at the Trade Deadline. Our original prediction for Russell was a four-year, $18MM contract. Given the situation he is in, it seems that both the term and value are likely to be cut in half.

Jiri Hudler (#18) – 1 year, $1.75MM

Hudler is the other player who’s availability is very surprising and difficult to figure out. Just one year removed from a 30-goal season, Hudler has shown that he is an offensive force and has found success playing on both wings and with many different types of line mates. Scoring and versatility, even at 32, generally earns a player a contract pretty quickly. That has not been the case for Hudler. A down season and concerns over size and toughness seem to be keeping him from getting the contract that he wanted and believed he deserved. Hudler is coming off a contract that carried a cap hit of $4MM per year, and we predicted that he would sign a deal for exactly that for four years. NHL teams are clearly concerned about paying for 2014-15 production and getting 2015-16 numbers, so term is likely a sticking point and a cheap, “show me” deal seems to be the most likely outcome. With similar stats to Teddy Purcell last year, expect Hudler to settle for a similar deal to the one-year, $1.6MM contract given to Purcell by the Los Angeles Kings.

Radim Vrbata (#27) – 1 year, $1.5MM

Similar to Hudler, Vrbata is likely asking for payment based on his 2014-15 numbers and getting offers based on his 2015-16 numbers. The veteran winger was excellent in the first year of a two-year $10MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks, scoring 63 points, but the second year did not turn out so well, as he scored less than half that amount. 27 points for a 35-year-old does not scream “hot commodity”, but even given his age and drop-off, we still predicted that Vrbata would secure a one-year, $3.7MM deal. The possibility of that value is long gone. Vrbata’s name seems to keep popping up, so it seems more likely that he’ll find a home in the NHL, rather than head overseas or retire, but it is likely to be more in the $1MM neighborhood.

Kyle Quincey (#44) – 1 year, $750K

If Sam Gagner got $650K after an awful season last year, Quincey’s prospects for anything over $1MM seem bleak given his dismal number in 2015-16 as well. We acknowledged in our prediction that Quincey severely under-performed the past two seasons in Detroit with a cap hit of $4.25MM, but still felt that a puck moving defenseman would earn at least $1.5MM on a one-year deal. Well, it’s now August and Quincey is not even the best defenseman on the market. Luke Schenn just got two years and only $2.5MM and he is better and younger than Quincey. Quincey will have to take a very cheap deal to play this season.

Jhonas Enroth (#50) – 1 year, $900K

It seemed like Enroth was set to sign with the Maple Leafs last week, but nothing ever came of it. It could be that the exact price was being nitpicked, as the Leafs are currently very close the salary cap ceiling. Unfortunately, the other team in the market for a backup goalie is San Jose, and they too are in a cap crunch. Enroth earned $1.25MM with the Kings last season and was excellent and thus was surely hoping for a raise. The market simply didn’t develop for the net minder, and now it is a bidding war between two teams with little to bid. Enroth could get lucky and sign a two-year deal for expansion draft purposes or simply to keep his cap hit low, but at this point a contract over $1MM seems unlikely.

Antoine Vermette (NR) – 1 year, $2MM

The newest addition to the free agent frenzy (or lack thereof) is Vermette, who was bought out by the Arizona Coyotes recently. Prior to the buyout, Vermette was put through waivers, and no team wanted any part of his 3.75MM cap hit. Using that as a starting point, it is safe to say that Vermette will not be getting 3.75MM from any team, nor will he likely get within even a million dollars of that mark. However, with 38 points in 76 games last season, Vermette is still producing at a similar rate as he has for the past five years or so, which made the buyout so surprising. The Coyotes likely wanted roster space for younger players, and the buyout was more about that than a commentary on Vermette’s ability. This late in free agency, most teams who would be interested in Vermette likely lack the cap flexibility to give him fair market value. He should still make a decent amount of money in 2016-17, but it will likely be a better bargain for his new destination.

James Wisniewski (NR) – 1 year, $850K

The off-season has not been kind to players coming off of bad seasons, and nothing is worse than missing an entire season with an injury. Such is the case with Wisniewski, who was injured in his first game with the Carolina Hurricanes, missed the remainder of the 2015-16 season, and was promptly bought out this off-season. Injury concerns are almost definitely the reason that Wisniewski remains unsigned, as he has top pair offensive ability when healthy, but simply isn’t healthy very often. However, even in this stagnant market, there are still D-needy teams who may be willing to pay for the chance at 30 to 40 points for an affordable, one-year deal if Wisniewski can play in the majority of the games this upcoming season. Unlike Quincey, who was actively bad this past season when healthy, Wisniewski’s ability post-injury is still somewhat unknown and may just give him a leg up in securing a contract.

Brandon Pirri (NR) – 2 years, $1.2MM

Finally we come to Pirri, who may be the closest comparison to Gagner remaining on the market. At 25 years old, Pirri perhaps has greatest potential of any remaining free agent, but is also a huge question mark. Despite showing some scoring ability in 166 NHL appearance, it seems many teams are still unsure of what his true ability is. He was expected to be tendered by the Anaheim Ducks, who acquired him at the Trade Deadline, and when they did not and he became an unrestricted free agent, he was expected to be scooped up quickly on July 1st. That also did not happen. Now, like Gagner, who is only 26 but must re-prove his NHL ability, Pirri is likely going to have to take a short-term deal for little money to show that he is an NHL-caliber player. At this point, Pirri is likely asking for a one-year deal so he can show himself and cash in next year, but don’t be surprised if he ends up signing for two or more so that the team can maintain control if their gamble pays off.

Each and every one of us is looking to maximize our value in life. You’re constantly on the lookout for the “best bang for your buck”, whether it be buying a new car, getting a good deal on groceries, or for hockey fans, maybe a new pair of skates or an NHL Network subscription. Such is life, and it is no different for front office executives around the league. The assets that they deal in are player contracts, and they fail or succeed by how much production they can squeeze out of each player while staying under the salary cap limit or a team-imposed budget. While you cannot really quantify the entire production of any hockey player, the best metric to analyze value is simply dollars spent per point. This shows you just how valuable a player is compared to their contract, by displaying their offensive production as a function of their contract.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. Last season, some of the league’s best players like Patrice Bergeron, Vladamir Tarasenko and Oliver Ekman-Larsson came in right around that mark. It also is a fair assessment for energy line players, aging veterans and entry-level players, whose deals are often under $1MM, leaving teams ecstatic when those players can become major point producers even though they are only expected to contribute few points. With this benchmark in mind, you’ll be astounded by some of the best value deals in the NHL in 2015-16.

Value is the reason why teams love impact rookies and All-Star caliber young players, and no entry-level deal payed off more last season than Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin. Skating alongside two of the game’s greats, Panarin put up 77 points in his first NHL season, while playing with an $812.5K cap hit. That comes out to a league-best  $10,552/point, almost ten times greater than the average rate. Even better news for Chicago: they still have one year left of that deal. The only entry-level player with more points than Panarin last season was Johnny Gaudreau, who scored 78 points at a rate of $11,859/per point (3rd best in the NHL), and the Calgary Flames are surely finding out this off-season that you pay for past value in that second contract. This is also the case for the 2nd-best value in the league, Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who scored only 66 points, but at an entry-level price tag of $712K and now finds himself in line for a big raise. In fact, the entire top ten and 37 of the top 50 cost/point leaders were on entry-level contracts last season, and many of those players, such as Vincent Trocheck (#4), Filip Forsberg (#5), Mark Scheifele (#6), and Victor Rask (#7), will all see their value decrease in the first year of expensive new extensions. Young players joining Panarin in continuing to be hockey’s “best bang for your buck” in 2016-17 are 2015 top picks Connor McDavid (#17) and Jack Eichel (#11), as well as Coyotes teammates Max Domi (#12) and Anthony Duclair (#14) and surprise rookie sensation Shayne Gostisbehere (#19).

There can still be value found in veteran players, however. Year after year, it seems that Lee Stempniak is always one of those players, as the veteran journeyman consistently outplays the modest contracts he is given. In 2015-16, Stempniak was the 13th best value in the league (#1 among standard contracts) at less than $17K/point, as he had 51 points playing on a one-year, $850K deal. He even provided additional value to the New Jersey Devils in the form of 2nd-round and 4th-round picks that they acquired from the Bruins when they traded Stempniak at the deadline. His teammate in Boston, Ryan Spooner, was second among standard-contract players, scoring 49 points in the first year of a two-year bridge deal with the Bruins that carries a cap hit of $950K. Expect Spooner to be back in the top 20 again next season. And of course who could forget Matt Cullen who, at 39, was often referred to as the best value in hockey last season, as his 32 points playing on a veteran’s contract of $800K was a big piece of the puzzle for the Pittsburgh Penguins as they marched to a Stanley Cup championship.

With the good comes the bad, and for every great young player or surprise veteran that provides their club with great value, there are overpaid players who don’t perform or role players who never seem to find their role there to bring them down.  In 2015-16, no player epitomized a lack of value like Tuomo Ruutu. Once a consistent two-way player capable of producing 30 to 50 points per season, the wheels had completely fallen off of the wagon for Ruutu well before entering the final season of a four-year, $19MM contract. In 33 games with Devils, Ruutu had just one assist (and was a -7) for a cost/point ratio of his entire cap hit, $4.75MM. Not to be outdone, Florida’s Garrett Wilson did not record a single point in 29 contests for the Panthers, thus producing an incalculable value metric, which is hard to swallow even for a player with a $675K cap hit. Tom Gilbert and Boyd Gordon are two more who struggled mightily to provide scoring value to their teams in 2015-16.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric. For more reading, check out the complete list of players at CapFriendly.com.