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Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Have Stalled

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Over the past few days, it seemed like a trade for all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson was imminent. Originally, the Dallas Stars were confirmed to be the leader in the race and deep in talks with the Ottawa Senators on a deal for Karlsson. Not long after, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning who had reportedly pulled ahead and had a deal in place with Ottawa that simply required a third team to take on salary. Some even stated that a deal was done pending a trade call, a rumor that obviously lacked reliability. Karlsson remains a Senator and it now seems like a trade is not coming as quickly as expected.

The Athletic’s Joe Smith, who has had his finger on the pulse of the Lightning’s trade talks, is no longer optimistic about a deal getting done. Smith writes that a deal for Karlsson should not be expected any time soon and that nothing is “imminent or close”. Smith admits that a trade could still work out between Ottawa and Tampa, but it’s no longer the foregone conclusion that some had perceived. Meanwhile the Stars are rumored to have fallen out of favor when they refused to include star blue line prospect Miro Heiskanen in a deal for Karlsson. Sportsnet’s John Shannon believes that the Stars still have a chance to land Karlsson, but it seems that Dallas’ chances depend on whether or not they can be flexible with their offer.

The Senators now have a feel for the market and should be able to work out a fair value for Karlsson soon. However, what isn’t so easy is accommodating their insistence on also sending away Bobby Ryan and his $7.25MM cap hit over four years remaining on his contract. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports today that this is the exact reason that finding a trade partner and working out the details of a deal could prove difficult. A three-team deal, like the one contemplated by Ottawa and Tampa Bay, is the most likely outcome for a Karlsson trade, but such deals don’t develop overnight. A trade could still be a ways away – The Athletic’s Chris Stevenson says that the Lightning, Stars, and Vegas Golden Knights all remain in the running – but Stevenson also says that nothing is close as the Senators have “retrenched” and the suitors are playing hardball. It seems that whichever team is able to up the ante on their offer and also be creative in managing several major contracts will be the team to land Karlsson and change the face of their franchise.

Tampa Bay, Ottawa Seeking Third Team To Facilitate Erik Karlsson Trade

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6:03 PM: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that the Rangers are a team that could potentially be involved as the cap facilitator.  Meanwhile, Joe Smith of The Athletic adds (via Twitter) that winger Ryan Callahan is in play for this move.  He has a 16-team trade list.

3:28 PM: The rumor mill has been working overtime this morning on a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning trade revolving around superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson, and now Travis Yost of TSN tweets that the teams are in the process of trying to find a third party to facilitate the deal, as balancing salaries is a key part of any transaction of this magnitude. Karlsson is expected to only be traded to a team if a contract extension can be worked out, while the Lightning are not expected to be one of the teams willing to eat Bobby Ryan’s contract. That contract could be exactly why the third team needs to be involved, though Tampa Bay themselves would likely need to move out contracts to fit in a Karlsson extension.

Remember that nothing is final at this point, and since the stakes in any potential blockbuster Karlsson trade are so high things can change at any moment. Just two days ago the Dallas Stars were considered the clear front runners, though now everything seems to be pointing towards the Lightning.

Karlsson is reportedly looking for a contract extension similar to the eight-year, $88MM deal that Drew Doughty recently signed, which would put any team in a financial bind. The Lightning, who know their way around superstar contracts, could potentially fit him in since they’ve inked their other top players to reasonable extensions the last few years. Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM AAV), Victor Hedman ($7.875MM) and Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM) have all signed relatively team-friendly deals instead of going to free agency, and though the team still needs to sign Nikita Kucherov to a mega-deal, they even have some cap space remaining for the upcoming season.

There are obvious candidates for the Lightning to move to clear more room. Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM), Tyler Johnson ($5.0MM), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM) are all expendable long-term contracts given the emergence of several young players, while Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM) and Dan Girardi ($3.0MM) are defensemen on expiring contracts who could be moved out given Karlsson’s impact on the blue line. The superstar defenseman only costs $6.5MM this season, meaning jettisoning just one of the above players would give the team enough cap space to acquire him.

Remember that teams during the offseason can go up to 10%, or $7.95MM, over the salary cap ceiling but must be compliant again by the beginning of the season. Even if Tampa Bay doesn’t find a taker for one of their contracts, they could still potentially acquire Karlsson only to find a way to get under the cap ceiling by the beginning of the year.

Tampa Bay Re-Signs Cedric Paquette To One-Year Deal

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Lightning center Cedric Paquette was one of the few arbitration-eligible players that didn’t file.  Now we know why as the team announced that they have re-signed him to a one-year, $1MM contract.

The 24-year-old played in 56 games with Tampa Bay last season, collecting five goals and four assists while logging a career-low 10:12 per game of ice time.  Paquette’s role increased in the postseason as he became a regular (playing in all 17 contests) while his playing time jumped to 11:51 per game.  In his career, he has played in 236 games (all with Tampa Bay), collecting 27 goals and 23 assists along with 41 PIMS.

The contract now gives the Lightning just under $3.4MM in cap space to work with and have just one player left to re-sign in winger Adam Erne.  However, if they do plan to add another impact player this summer – whether that’s Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson or someone else – they’ll have to free up some money first.  Not surprisingly, it was reported earlier today that Tampa Bay and Ottawa are seeking a third team to get involved in trade talks to take on a contract or two to help facilitate a trade.

Poll: Where Will Erik Karlsson Play In 2018-19?

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Since John Tavares decided on the Toronto Maple Leafs as his destination of choice in free agency, all eyes have turned to another Ontario-based superstar who might be changing locales in short order. Erik Karlsson has been given the opportunity to negotiate extensions with potential acquiring teams, and seems destined to be moved at some point in the next few days or weeks. The Ottawa Senators captain has one year left on his current contract, and was reportedly offered an eight-year, $80MM extension by the team. That number comes in slightly below the contract given to Drew Doughty (eight years, $88MM) which is seen by many as the measuring stick for Karlsson’s next deal.

Recently it was reported that the Dallas Stars had the inside track on any Karlsson trade, and as recently as a few hours ago Chris Stevenson of The Athletic tweeted that talks are ongoing between the two teams. The Stars have plenty of young talent, including Finnish defensemen Julis Honka and Miro Heiskanen, and are looking to compete while Jamie Benn, John Klingberg and Tyler Seguin are still in their prime. A Karlsson deal would make them immediate contenders, though it would obviously cost a ton in assets and salary.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, New York Islanders and even Columbus Blue Jackets have been mentioned among other teams as potential destinations, and it is not clear at this point who will win out and land the two-time Norris Trophy winner. It’s not even guaranteed that Karlsson will move on from Ottawa, which he’s called his home for many years and could potentially still increase their offer to retain him should the offered packages not live up to their expectations.

Where do you think Karlsson will start the 2018-19 season? Vote below and make sure to leave your thoughts in the comment section.

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Offseason Keys: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.

After missing the playoffs in 2016-17, Tampa Bay was looking to get back into Stanley Cup contention.  While they fell short of that, it was still a successful season as they won the Atlantic Division while making it to the Eastern Conference Final before being eliminated by the eventual champions in Washington.  They’ve already taken care of two key items on their summer to-do list with the re-signing of J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh’s extension; here are three other keys to their offseason.

Kucherov Extension Talks

Two summers ago, the Lightning held the cards when it came to then-RFA winger Nikita Kucherov.  He didn’t have arbitration rights, no teams want to sign offer sheets, and the team had limited cap room.  That forced a three-year, $14.3MM bridge deal with the third season being 2018-19 which makes him eligible for a contract extension as of July 1st.

It’s safe to say that the 25-year-old now holds the cards.  Kucherov is coming off a 100-point season and has firmly established himself as a premier winger in the league (if not the premier winger).  He will also be arbitration-eligible next summer and if he wants, he can simply file, go to the hearing, and get a one-year deal that will take him to unrestricted free agency.

That’s certainly not the route that GM Steve Yzerman will want to go.  The question will be how much will it cost to get him on a long-term extension?  While center Steven Stamkos set the bar two years ago when he signed for $8.5MM but it’s quite likely that Kucherov will cost more than that on his next contract.  It’s not impossible to think he could surpass the $10MM mark and more than double his current cap hit.  They may not get a deal done this summer but expect a lot of talks to occur in the weeks and months to come.

Free Up Long-Term Cap Room

Knowing that a new and much more expensive deal for Kucherov is on the horizon, Yzerman is going to have to look to free up some long-term space.  As things stand, the team already has over $56MM on the books for 2019-20 per CapFriendly and that only includes 11 players.  If Kucherov gets more than $10MM on an extension, that could present the Lightning with a situation where they’ll be looking to fill out nearly half their roster with only $13MM or so to spend.  That’s not a palatable situation to work with.  At some point, they’re going to have to move a core player out.

One player who has been speculated as someone that could move is center Tyler Johnson.  However, his full no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st which could affect any deal.  He has a more than manageable $5MM cap hit for six more years and with the center market as dried up as it is, they could get quite the return.  While moving him would take a key piece out of their lineup, Miller can also play down the middle as can Brayden Point (also an RFA next year).

While winger Alex Killorn has been quite consistently productive in a secondary role over the past five years, he could be deemed too pricey at $4.45MM through 2022-23.  However, he already has a full no-trade clause in place that could complicate things.  He wouldn’t bring back as much in a return as Johnson but moving him could allow them to keep their depth down the middle.  Veteran winger Ryan Callahan has a shorter-term deal to work with ($5.8MM through 2019-20) but his injury troubles will make him difficult to move.

At any rate, Tampa Bay is going to have to move out a notable player or two in the somewhat near future.  If they plan to make a splash in free agency this summer, they may have to move someone out now in order to do so.  If not, they can defer acting on this until next offseason but they’ll really be under the gun at that time.

Long-Term Stability On Defense

While the team already has seven defenders signed for next season (plus RFA Slater Koekkoek still to sign), only three are signed beyond the next 12 months in Victor Hedman, McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev.  Three others are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer which could result in a fairly significant amount of turnover in a short period of time.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Yzerman seeking younger rearguards in any offseason trade discussions.  While 2017 first-rounder Cal Foote figures to be in the mix a year from now, there isn’t anyone else that’s really on the verge of making an NHL push so they will need to add.  Their back end is pretty well set for 2018-19 and should be in good shape with McDonagh now being there for the full season but this is a group that doesn’t have a lot of stability beyond then which is something that the team should be looking to address.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Slater Koekkoek Re-Signs With Tampa Bay Lightning

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have locked up one of their restricted free agents, signing Slater Koekkoek to a one-year contract worth $865K. The deal is one-way, and could potentially take Koekkoek to Group VI unrestricted free agency next summer if he’s not given an opportunity with the Lightning this year. He needs just four games for the team to retain his rights as an RFA, but with a crowded blue line in Tampa Bay, it’s not a guarantee that he receives the chance.

Koekkoek, 24, was a first round pick of the Lightning in 2012, selected 10th overall. He was expected to become a top-pairing two-way defender, but hasn’t quite made the impact Tampa Bay had hoped. In 76 games he has recorded 13 points, but has now been bumped down the depth chart by additions like Ryan McDonagh. Tampa Bay is committed to contending for the Stanley Cup right now, and can’t wait around hoping Koekkoek continues to develop

If he’s going to ever fulfill his potential, he’ll have to take advantage of the next opportunity he’s given. If not, there might have to be a change of scenery for the left-handed defenseman. The signing doesn’t pose much risk to the Lightning as he can be completely buried in the minor leagues, but that’s certainly not the outcome GM Steve Yzerman is hoping for.

Tampa Bay Signs Cameron Gaunce, Kevin Lynch

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have added another option on the back end. The team has announced a one-year, two-way deal with defenseman Cameron Gaunce. Salary terms have not been disclosed, but it seems unlikely that Gaunce would secure anything above the minimum of $650K at the NHL level. The same could be said for Kevin Lynch, who also has signed a one-year, two-way contract with remain with the team.

Gaunce, 28, has bounced around the minor leagues since being selected in the second round ten years ago by the Colorado Avalanche. Playing last season for the Cleveland Monsters, he collected 24 points in 67 games but failed to make it up to the Columbus Blue Jackets for any games. In Tampa, he’ll almost surely be ticketed for the Syracuse Crunch for the entire season, and asked to lend a veteran hand to their minor league squad.

J.T. Brown Signs With Minnesota Wild

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Enforcer J.T. Brown is heading home to Minnesota, as the veteran forward has signed with the Wild. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that it is a two-year deal and adds that he will make $675K this year and $700K next year for an AAV of $687.5K.

Brown spent 2017-18 playing for two teams as he began the year with the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he had played for the previous five years of his NHL career. This year, with the Lightning overflowing with depth and his role declining, Tampa Bay placed him on waivers, hoping he could be sent to the AHL, but was claimed by the Anaheim Ducks. He played 23 games for an injury-ravaged Anaheim team, producing three points.

With Minnesota, the 27-year-old should provide more depth for the team’s bottom line, which Minnesota is re-designing. The team already locked up bottom-line center Eric Fehr, signed veteran Matt Hendricks and allowed veteran Matt Cullen to move on to Pittsburgh.

Montreal Canadiens Sign Matthew Peca

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The Montreal Canadiens have added one of the more interesting names on the free agent market, signing Matthew Peca to a two-year contract worth $1.3MM annually. Peca was a Group VI unrestricted free agent after failing to get a real chance to crack the lineup in Tampa Bay.

The 25-year-old managed to appear in just 10 games for the Lightning both this year and last. However, Peca made the most of his opportunity this year, posting two goals and five points in those 10 appearances. He was also impressive in his stint as a leader on the deep Syracuse Crunch roster in the AHL where the center posted 13 goals and 33 assists there.

While Peca has the skills to play the center position, a position of need, he is more than capable of filling a key wing position and could develop into a solid second or third-line option for Montreal or at worst, become a top AHL option for the Laval Rocket.

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