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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $81,456,607 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Beniers (one year, $898K)
F Tye Kartye (two years, $859K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $918K)

Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $1.85MM
Kartye: $57.5K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $4.97MM

Beniers’ first full NHL season was certainly a strong one as he finished fourth on the Kraken in scoring while taking home the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie.  He followed that up with a good showing in the playoffs.  Basically, the second overall pick in 2021 has cemented himself as a key part of Seattle’s long-term plans.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t have been too surprising had he signed a long-term extension over the summer, one in the $8MM for eight years range, one we’ve seen quite a few core young centers sign in recent years.  That didn’t happen and now he’s off to a bit of a slow start this season.  Even if he winds up with a bridge deal though, it will still be pricey; Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras (three years, $5.75MM AAV) could be a suitable comparable.  He should have a chance at hitting several of his four ‘A’ bonuses at $212.5K each.

Wright was recently recalled, beginning the nine-game clock before the Kraken will need to decide about officially burning the first year of this deal.  However, they’ve since sent him back down, deferring that decision for the time being.  Assuming they avoid starting the contract, they’ll be able to lower the cap hit slightly for next season while avoiding the bonuses.  As for Kartye, he has been a regular in the bottom six in his first taste of regular season action.  If he can hold down that role this season and next, he might be able to double this price tag.  His bonuses are games-played based so it’s likely he’ll hit some of them at least.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($775K, UFA)
G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($762.5K, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($775K, UFA)
F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Kailer Yamamoto ($1.5MM, RFA)

Eberle has put up back-to-back 20-goal seasons in his first two years with Seattle, actually faring better offensively than he was with the Islanders.  In doing so, he has given himself a chance of securing another deal at a similar price tag as this one although it’ll be a shorter-term agreement with him turning 34 in May.  Wennberg has done better with the Kraken compared to his time with Florida but he hasn’t gotten back to his early-career numbers when he had 40 points in his sophomore year and 59 the following season.  The fact he plays in all situations and is a center will certainly help him on the open market but at this point, it feels like something closer to $3.5MM or $3.75MM might be where his next contract lands.

Yamamoto was bought out by Detroit (who ate the charge to acquire Klim Kostin’s rights) and quickly landed with his hometown team in unrestricted free agency.  Unless he’s able to produce at a higher level than he did with Edmonton though, he could be facing a non-tender in June.  Otherwise, a small increase could come his way.  Tolvanen fit in quite well after being claimed off waivers and is off to a good start this year.  If that can be maintained, he’d be worthy of a deal crossing the $2MM mark.  That said, the fact Daniel Sprong was non-tendered this past offseason after a 46-point year is a cautionary tale; they’re only willing to commit so much to that particular slot on the depth chart.  Bellemare and Shore were only able to get minimum-salary deals over the summer and there’s little reason at this point to think they’ll be able to command more next time out.

After struggling in his final year with Washington, Schultz has rebounded well with Seattle when it comes to his production, notching 34 points last season and is on a similar pace this year.  That, coupled with being a right-shot player, should give him a good market next summer which might allow him to land a small raise.  Megna was acquired before the trade deadline last season but has played just six times with his new team (including playoffs), all of which came last year.  Unless something changes, he’s likely to stay close to the league minimum.

Driedger landed this contract after a strong showing as Florida’s backup for a year and a half but things haven’t gone well with Seattle.  He struggled in his first year, then tore his ACL at the Worlds, causing him to miss most of last season; the bit he did play was in the AHL.  That’s where he is now as well, leaving a $2.35MM dead cap charge while he’s down there.  He should still land a seven-figure one-way contract next summer but something closer to the $1.5MM mark could be doable.

Signed Through 2024-25

D William Borgen ($2.7MM, UFA)
G Joey Daccord ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Brian Dumoulin ($3.15MM, UFA)
F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)

Gourde was another one of Tampa Bay’s cap casualties with Seattle picking him up in expansion.  He has put up back-to-back 48-point seasons with the Kraken while being a key two-way center along the way, just as he was with the Lightning.  Unless he can get back to the 60-point level he reached in his first full NHL campaign, it’s hard to see a sizable raise coming his way but another long-term deal around this price point could be doable if he stays close to the 50-point mark.  Tanev, when healthy, has been more productive with Seattle compared to his time with Pittsburgh and Winnipeg despite having the same type of role.  That said, with the injuries and his bottom-six role, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to command a big raise either.  That said, another deal in this range could work, if he can stay healthy.

Larsson has done quite well with a much bigger role since signing with Seattle, posting back-to-back career years offensively while logging over 23 minutes a night on average.  This is more like what New Jersey was expecting when he was the fourth overall pick in 2011.  If Larsson can continue to produce at that rate while remaining a key shutdown defender, he could push for closer to $6MM on his next contract.

Dumoulin joined Seattle this summer in free agency after a down year with Pittsburgh.  His ATOI is down around five minutes a night from last year as he has primarily been on the third pairing.  If that holds up, he’ll be hard-pressed to get an offer near this price as third-pairing players are closer to the $2MM mark now on the open market.  Borgen landed this deal on the heels of an arbitration filing thanks to a career year on the offensive front where he had 20 points.  However, for someone whose usage is fairly limited (generally below 17 minutes a night), it’s hard to see a scenario where he can command much more than that on the open market unless there’s a team that’s confident he can play in the top four.

Daccord was someone who benefitted from the increased value of third-string goalies, getting a seven-figure one-way deal despite playing in just ten NHL games combined over the past two seasons.  Now set as the backup, he could position himself to double this price tag if he holds that role through the end of 2024-25.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.5MM, UFA)

Schwartz was somewhat of a surprising signing after Seattle didn’t spend much in the expansion draft.  When healthy, he’s a capable top-six piece and while he managed to put up 21 goals last season, he has missed double-digit games in each of the last three seasons.  He’ll need to stay healthy more consistently to have a chance at eclipsing this price tag next time out.  Bjorkstrand was a cap casualty in Columbus and while his output dipped in his first year with the Kraken, he still put up his fourth 20-goal season out of the last five years.  If he continues at that pace, he could be in line for a contract similar to this one in 2026.

Oleksiak’s contract felt like an overpayment at the time for someone who hadn’t been in the top four a lot.  However, he has filled that role relatively well with Seattle while continuing to be one of the better shot-blockers.  This deal still is a bit high with the limited offense he brings to the table but it’s not a negative-value pact either.  He’ll be 33 when this contract is up, however, which could restrict his price tag somewhat.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $81,392,547 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F William Eklund (three years, $863K)
D Nikita Okhotyuk (one year, $789K)

Potential Bonuses
Eklund: $850K
Okhotiuk: $82.5K
Total: $932.5K

The Sharks have slow-played things with Eklund, giving him a taste of NHL action over the last two years but not enough to actually start his contract.  Now that his deal can’t slide anymore, he’s a regular in the lineup.  He’s off to a slow start this season and San Jose’s offensive woes will make it tough for him to hit on his four ‘A’ bonuses.

Okhotiuk is essentially waiver-blocked.  San Jose isn’t using him much but they also don’t want to risk losing him for nothing on waivers.  The end result is a lot of time on the bench which doesn’t bode well for his next contract or reaching some of his games played bonuses.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Calen Addison ($825K, RFA)
F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Carpenter ($775K, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Ty Emberson ($775K, RFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.725MM, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Jacob MacDonald ($762.5K, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Filip Zadina ($1.1MM, RFA)

After Labanc took a team-friendly one-year deal back in 2019-20, things have gone downhill as he has failed to pass the 33-point mark since then.  At one point last month, it looked like he’d be waived.  A change of scenery would likely do him some good but it’s almost certainly going to come at a fraction of this price.  Hoffman appears to be heading for a sizable dip in pay as well after a tough couple of years in Montreal and a particularly rough start to this season.  His shot is still dangerous but he might be better suited for a deeper team who can use him on the power play but hide him a bit at five-on-five.  Those teams won’t be able to offer anywhere close to the type of money he’s making now.

Duclair was acquired from Florida over the summer with the Panthers looking to free up some cap space.  A big year in a prominent role could also bode well for the winger but, as is the case with pretty much every other forward, he’s off to a tough start.  Still, after a 31-goal showing in 2021-22, Duclair should at least have a chance at another short-term deal around this price.  Barabanov is coming off a career year that saw him record 47 points in 68 games, a pretty nice bargain at his price.  However, a finger injury is likely to keep him out for another month which won’t help his bargaining power.  That said, a small raise could be achievable if he’s able to produce upon his return.

Kunin’s tenure with San Jose hasn’t gone great so far.  Injuries limited him to just 31 games last season where he managed 13 points and he’s producing at a lower clip in the early going this year.  Owed a $3MM qualifying offer in June, that price tag might be too rich for the Sharks.  Lindblom landed this deal after being bought out by Philadelphia but has struggled with his new team to the point where he cleared waivers in camp and is now in the minors with a dead cap charge of $1.35MM.  As things stand, even getting that much next summer could be difficult.

Zadina walked away from guaranteed money with Detroit to take a lot less with San Jose in the hopes that a new environment could help him revive his game.  The results have been spotty so far but with him being controllable through restricted free agency until 2027, they can afford a gradual development curve.  A small raise with arbitration eligibility should come his way.  Carpenter has seen limited minutes so far and is likely to stay in a depth forward role which will keep him around this price point moving forward.

Simek has been a depth piece for the majority of this contract (which is in its fourth year) which resulted in him clearing waivers in training camp.  Accordingly, he has a dead cap charge of $1.1MM which, like Lindblom, might be more than what he’ll be able to get on the open market this summer.  Addison was recently acquired from Minnesota in a move that basically gives him a fresh start where he’ll play more frequently.  After putting up 29 points last season, the Wild basically had no choice but to give him a low-cost, one-year deal.  Next summer, Addison will be arbitration-eligible and should see this price tag double at a minimum.

Emberson was picked up on waivers in training camp and is getting his first taste of NHL action.  He has held his own so far but a larger sample size is needed to see if he’s worthy of a bigger raise and a multi-year deal or another one-year pact if he winds up being a depth defender.  MacDonald is another depth piece who, at 30, is almost certain to stay around the minimum salary on his next deal.

Things haven’t gone quite as planned for Kahkonen.  Former GM Doug Wilson moved a capable blueliner in Jacob Middleton to get the netminder back at the 2021-22 trade deadline with the hopes that he’d be their goalie of the future.  The way he finished off that season provided some cause for optimism but since then, it has not been pretty.  He posted a save percentage of just .883 last season and this year, it’s even worse early on; with how bad the Sharks are, there’s no guarantee it will improve either.  He’s one of the more intriguing goalies in this free agent class; is it a case of him just needing a more structured environment to succeed in?  Or did he peak a couple of years ago?  How teams feel will ultimately decide if he gets a contract similar to this one or if he’s heading for a sizable pay cut as well.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Mackenzie Blackwood ($2.35MM, UFA)
F Mikael Granlund ($5MM, UFA)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Givani Smith ($800K, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($2MM, UFA)
F Fabian Zetterlund ($1.45MM, RFA)

Yes, things didn’t go well for Granlund in Pittsburgh but before that, he had 100 points in his last 138 games with Nashville.  Accordingly, a bounce-back performance is doable in theory but this might not be the best situation for that to happen.  At the moment, it’s hard to see him getting this type of money two years from now but if things stabilize somewhat and Granlund is a key part of that happening, he might be able to come closer than some might think.  Sturm had a career year last season, his first with San Jose as he put up career bests across the board while providing some positive value on his contract.  If he can stay close to 25 points while being a faceoff specialist, his market should be a bit stronger in 2025 where he could push for closer to $3MM.

Zetterlund did well with New Jersey last year but struggled mightily after being acquired in the Timo Meier swap.  This season, he has looked a bit more comfortable and is the early team leader in goals.  He’ll be looking to establish himself as a dependable middle-six winger moving forward and if he does, his next contract should at least go past the $2MM mark.  Smith has been a depth player when he has been on an NHL roster and that’s unlikely to change with the Sharks which should keep him around this price point two years from now.

Rutta is best utilized in a complementary role and the state of San Jose’s depth chart makes that somewhat difficult to accomplish.  When he signed this contract with Pittsburgh, it seemed like an overpayment at the time and if he winds up languishing with the Sharks for most of the remainder of it, he could also be looking at a small cut on his next contract.  Knyzhov has battled significant injury trouble and at this point, it’s just about re-establishing himself as a regular, a role he last had in 2020-21.  If he can do so and stay healthy, he could push for closer to $2MM but would need to become a top-four piece with the Sharks to aim much higher.

Blackwood struggled with injuries and inconsistency with New Jersey, resulting in his rights being dealt to San Jose in the spring.  They non-tendered him but quickly agreed to this deal.  The 26-year-old has fared better than Kahkonen but is struggling behind a weakened back end.  He’ll need to fare at least a bit better if he wants a shot at another deal around this price point; even keeping them competitive most nights might be enough.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Matt Benning ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Kyle Burroughs ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Mario Ferraro ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM, UFA)

To say that Vlasic’s contract hasn’t aged well would be an extreme understatement.  The decline in performance started in year two and has continued since then.  In his prime, Vlasic was a prime shutdown defenseman but now, he’s struggling to handle even number six minutes and has been healthy scratched at times.  There is signing bonus money in each of the remaining years of the contract which must be paid in full with a buyout.  Even so, a buyout starts to look a bit palatable this summer when the cost would be $3.833MM, $4.833MM, and then two years at $1.333MM.  San Jose isn’t in a spot where they need to free up cap space but keeping an aging veteran around at the expense of a younger player isn’t the best option either and a trade just isn’t palatable.

Ferraro’s contract was interesting at the time it was signed in that it brought him right to unrestricted free agency with no extra years of club control.  He’s playing a bigger role than he probably should but in a fourth or fifth role, he’d fit in well with quite a few teams.  Unless things really don’t go well between now and 2026, he should be positioned to earn an increase on this deal even with his struggles as a top-pairing player.

Benning’s contract was another somewhat curious one in that sixth defenders usually don’t get four-year deals.  He actually had a career season offensively last year, making him a bit of a bargain at the moment although he’d need to continue to produce near that level to earn any sort of significant raise.  Closer to the trade deadline, he could be an under-the-radar trade candidate.  Burroughs also inked a multi-year deal to be a role player on the back end, pretty good stability for a player who had less than 100 NHL games under his belt at the time he signed.  He’s also playing a bigger role than he should but if he can hold his own at the 20-minute mark, his market should be stronger in 2026.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $84,937,314 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Quinton Byfield (one year, $894K)
F Alex Laferriere (two years, $875K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (one year, $894K)
D Jordan Spence (one year, $820K)

Potential Bonuses
Byfield: $2.65MM
Kaliyev: $212.5K
Spence: $82.5K
Total: $2.945MM

Byfield took a small step forward last season and has looked a bit better in the early going this year.  However, he’s a lock for a bridge contract.  Barring a major uptick in production, that deal might be capped around the $2.25MM mark while his ‘A’ bonuses are going to be tough to reach.  Kaliyev, meanwhile, is a bit more established as a secondary scorer.  If he can get closer to the 20-goal and 40-point mark this season, he could push his bridge cost a bit higher than Byfield’s while hitting his lone ‘A’ bonus.  Laferriere is just starting off his NHL career so it’s a bit early to project his next deal but if he can stay on the third line, he should push past the $1MM mark at least.

Spence has been a strong point producer in the minors but isn’t quite ready to play a big role just yet.  That will limit his earnings upside to the point where a one-year bridge contract around what he’s making now might be what happens.  His bonuses are tied to games played with multiple thresholds so while he might not max out, he should reach some of that total if he stays healthy.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($775K, RFA)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Pheonix Copley ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($1.3MM, RFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($775K, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.675MM, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.15MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($1MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Talbot: $1MM

Arvidsson has certainly improved his value since being acquired in 2021 from Nashville, putting up two of his better offensive years including reaching the 20-goal mark each time.  Free agency hasn’t been kind to wingers lately but assuming he’s able to come back from the lower-body injury that has him on LTIR, he should be able to get a small raise on this on a multi-year deal.  Lizotte has shown slow and steady improvement over his first few seasons despite having relatively limited playing time; this season looks to be a continuation in the early going.  If that happens, he could have a case to push past the $2MM mark with arbitration rights.  However, if the Kings are only comfortable playing him 10-12 minutes a night, he could become a non-tender candidate if they want to fill that lineup spot with someone cheaper even at the expense of some production.

Grundstrom has become a fourth-line regular for Los Angeles and chipped in with a dozen goals last season.  Still, with the Kings largely capped out, they may be hard-pressed to afford to give him much more if this is the role he’s going to remain in.  A small raise is doable but a non-tender could be possible as well.  Lewis is a serviceable fourth liner which has kept him in the NHL for 16 seasons now.  If there is going to be a 17th, it’ll be at or close to the minimum again.  Anderson-Dolan is the extra skater at this point so it’s hard to see him commanding more than the league minimum either.  With nearly 100 NHL games under his belt already, he’s a bit of an arbitration risk for the Kings (who wouldn’t want to go higher than $775K) so barring him locking down a regular role, they might opt to non-tender him as well.

Roy is one of the more intriguing defensemen entering the final year of his deal.  He seemingly has largely flown under the radar with Los Angeles but he has put up back-to-back career years offensively despite not seeing a ton of power play time.  Defensively, he logs heavy minutes on the penalty kill, allowing him to hover around 20 minutes a night on average most years.  He turns 29 in March so he’s young enough that he should still have several good seasons ahead of him.  Add those elements to the fact that Roy is a right-hand shot and you have a combination that should earn him a nice raise on the open market.  A jump to around the $4.5MM mark could be doable for him although it’d be surprising if that came with the Kings who might be inclined to give his spot to prospect Brandt Clarke next season.

Talbot came over after an injury-plagued year with Ottawa.  He hasn’t been a true starter for a while but they’re basically counting on him to be one.  His bonuses are easy to achieve (payable at 10 games played) and the bulk of that will be charged against the cap next year.  If Talbot can get back to his form from a few years ago, he could get back closer to the $3MM mark next summer.  Copley is in his first full season as the backup after an early-season recall turned into a career year last season.  The early results aren’t good this year, however.  If he’s able to turn things around, a small raise could be doable but his longer-term track record of being a third-stringer will work against him in free agency.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Tobias Bjornfot ($775K, RFA)
D Andreas Englund ($1MM, UFA)
D Vladislav Gavrikov ($5.875MM, UFA)

Gavrikov impressed after being acquired from the Blue Jackets at the trade deadline last season along with Joonas Korpisalo.  They only had room to keep one of the two and opted for the blueliner.  Expecting a jump in the cap in the near future, the 27-year-old decided to take a short-term deal this time around in the hopes of landing a more lucrative long-term pact in 2025.  As things stand, he might be able to get a small raise but not much more than that.

Englund worked his way back up to the NHL last season, splitting the year in a depth role between Colorado and Chicago.  He should be in a similar role this year and a $1MM price tag for a sixth or seventh defender is a reasonable cost.  Bjornfot’s deal is one-way in both seasons as he opted to take some guaranteed money in exchange for taking less than his qualifying offer.  Playing time at the top level has been hard to come by for the 2019 first-rounder and he’ll need to establish himself as a regular to get any sort of meaningful increase two years from now.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Adrian Kempe ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM in 2023-24, $7MM in 2024-25 and 2025-26, UFA)

It was widely expected that the Kings would work out an extension for their captain at some point and they wasted little time doing so.  Kopitar isn’t a top-end scorer but has been close to the point-per-game mark the last few seasons while being a high-quality defensive center.  $10MM is a bit on the high side but on his next contract, he could provide some value on that deal, even when they start to manage his minutes.  Kempe has gone from a secondary producer to a go-to scorer over the last two seasons, notching 76 goals combined over the past two years.  As a result, his contract will be a nice bargain if he’s able to keep scoring at that rate.  He’ll be 30 in 2026 and if he remains a 30-plus-goal scorer, a decent-sized raise on a long-term deal could be on the horizon.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $83,117,240 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Philip Broberg (one year, $863K)
F Dylan Holloway (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Broberg: $850K
Holloway: $650K

Holloway was certainly eased into NHL action last season as he averaged less than ten minutes a game, not necessarily ideal for an offensive-minded player.  This year, the early usage is similar but they’re hoping he’ll work his way into a bigger role eventually.  As things stand, he’ll be hard-pressed to reach his bonuses and is almost certainly heading for a short-term bridge deal next year that will get him a small raise but not much more.

Broberg is following a similar path as Holloway.  He saw semi-regular action with the Oilers last year but in a very limited role with this season following the same trajectory to start.  Again, that makes his bonuses unlikely to be reached (which is notable given how tight to the cap they are now) and puts him in line for a low-cost bridge deal as Edmonton has done with several others coming off their entry-level deals recently.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Brown ($775K, UFA)
D Vincent Desharnais ($762.5K, RFA)
F Adam Erne ($775K, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($1MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Brown: $3.225MM

Brown’s contract is the cheapest on paper but will cost them the most as that bonus payout is payable once he gets to ten games played.  Barring injury, he’ll get there less than two weeks from now.  The pickup was a bit of a gamble since he was coming off ACL surgery but there was definitely an upside play to it.  He’ll need to show that he’s healthy and productive to have a shot at commanding that much guaranteed money on a multi-year deal next summer.

Foegele has been a subject of trade speculation for a while thanks to his contract.  For a third-liner, it’s not an overpayment but with their cap situation, it has been wondered if it’s a premium they can afford.  With the crunch on contracts for depth players in recent years, it’s unlikely there’s a big raise coming his way but a similar-sized multi-year deal should be doable.  Janmark cleared waivers last season but wound up playing a regular role most nights but is in that replacement-level range which makes it difficult for him to command much more than this bearing a breakout year.  Erne just signed earlier this week on a two-way deal, a sign that his market wasn’t the strongest either.

Desharnais is a late-bloomer but is basically a sixth or seventh defender at this point of his career.  His value to Edmonton is the below-minimum contract.  As things stand, he might garner enough interest to get close to the $1MM mark next summer but will need to be in the lineup more often than not to have a shot at that.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Evan Bouchard ($3.9MM, RFA)
D Cody Ceci ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan McLeod ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Derek Ryan ($900K, UFA)

Technically, Draisaitl is the second-best threat on the Oilers but that certainly doesn’t mean that he’d be a second option elsewhere.  On most teams, he’d be their top-line center and their go-to scorer.  Edmonton has benefitted significantly with his contract, one that is significantly below market.  He has been one of the top scorers in the league in the past decade (second only to his teammate) and between that and the fact he plays a premium position, Draisaitl is in a position to command a record-setting contract on the open market, ahead of the $13.25MM that Auston Matthews received earlier this year from Toronto.  However, if he wants to stay in Edmonton, it seems like he might have to settle for a bit less than that.

McLeod is one of the players who had to take the cheap one-year deal coming off his entry-level pact although that swung the leverage hammer to him as he had arbitration rights this summer.  He improved on his numbers from 2021-22 despite playing in 14 fewer games which helped him jump past the $2MM mark.  If he continues to improve, his value could be closer to $3.5MM next time around.  Ryan receiving a two-year deal was a surprise considering he turns 37 in December.  If he gets another contract, it’ll be around this price tag while Edmonton will be looking to keep this roster spot as close to the minimum as possible.

Draisaitl shouldn’t be the only big-ticket deal Edmonton will have to contend with in 2025.  Bouchard had a breakout second half and a strong playoff performance, making his bridge deal more expensive than the Oilers likely expected.  If he continues on that trajectory, he could more than double his current price tag on his next deal.  Ceci’s second season with Edmonton wasn’t as good as his first but he still held down a top-four role.  As long as that’s the case, they’ll get decent value but history has shown he’s typically better off in the fifth spot on the depth chart which doesn’t help his open-market value which, at this point, is probably close to what he’s making now.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Mattias Ekholm ($6MM, UFA)*
F Evander Kane ($5.125MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM, UFA)
G Stuart Skinner ($2.6MM, UFA)

*-Nashville is retaining an additional $250K per season on Ekholm’s contract.

McDavid had held the record for the highest AAV in NHL history until Nathan MacKinnon passed that this year.  It certainly feels like it’s only a matter of time before he reclaims that title, potentially passing Draisaitl to re-take the crown.  A three-time Hart Trophy winner as NHL MVP, McDavid has led the league in scoring in three straight years and five out of the last seven.  He plays a premium position and he’ll only be 29 when his next contract begins.  That means a max-term deal (eight years if he re-signs, seven if he was to go elsewhere) is basically a lock.  As is the case with Draisaitl, if the two want to stay together in Edmonton, McDavid will also need to leave money on the table to do so given their cap situation.

Kane impressed after joining Edmonton midway through the 2021-22 campaign and was off to a good start last year before being slowed by a lacerated wrist.  If he can get back to that level of performance, they’ll do well with this deal but it’s fair to say that he has struggled out of the gate.  He’ll be 35 when this deal is up so he might be hard-pressed to beat this contract at that time.

Ekholm has been a steady 30-point defender who logs heavy minutes for basically the better part of the last eight years.  He’s not a number one option but a capable number two or a high-end number three.  This contract falls in line nicely with either of those two roles, for now at least.  He’ll be 36 in the final season so that could be a small concern given his heavy workload.  Again, with his age, it’s difficult to see him beating this price on his next contract.  Kulak does well in a limited role but while he can handle top-four minutes, he often struggles with the extra workload.  That makes this contract a bit on the expensive side and if they need to try to trim more from their payroll, Kulak could be a strong candidate to be the cap casualty.

Most of Skinner’s first full NHL season went quite well.  He was an All-Star and it looked like they had an in-house solution to their long-term goalie struggles.  The playoffs were another story as he struggled mightily and his first few outings this year haven’t been the greatest.  With the current backup market, as long as he’s a league-average option, they’ll get a reasonable return so this contract should hold up relatively well over time.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $85,943,500 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Coronato (two years, $925K)
F Jakob Pelletier (one year, $863K/$406K SOIR charge)

Potential Bonuses
Coronato: $850K

Coronato turned pro after a strong college season last year, burning the first year of his entry-level deal in the process even though he only played in one game.  That makes assessing his second contract next to impossible at this point but it’s fair to say they’re counting on him playing an important role before too long.  His four bonuses are of the ‘A’ variety so if he’s able to stay in a top-six role, it’s possible that one or two of those could be hit.

As for Pelletier, he was up for close to half of last season which is what makes his season-opening IR charge harder than most.  Until he’s cleared to play, that will stay there.  At that time, he can be set to the roster, making the full cap charge come into effect or he can be sent down, taking it off entirely.  With the way things went last season where his playing time was limited and now with his shoulder injury, it’s reasonable to think a low-cost bridge deal is heading his way.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Dillon Dube ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Dennis Gilbert ($762.5K, UFA)
F A.J. Greer ($762.5K, UFA)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($925K, UFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Adam Ruzicka ($762.5K, RFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.75MM, UFA)

Lindholm’s future with the team (or lack thereof) has been a discussion point for several months now.  At one point, it looked like he might not have much interest in staying.  That doesn’t appear to be the case now but the two sides still aren’t believed to be close on a new deal.  While a repeat of his 42-goal performance in 2021-22 isn’t likely, Lindholm is still a top center in terms of all-around usage and someone is going to pay him accordingly.  At the moment, he’s one of the top middlemen that will be set to hit the open market and recent contracts handed out likely peg the low end of his price around the $8.5MM while the high end will start with a nine on a max-term deal or close to it.

Dube has shown steady improvement throughout his young career and is coming off a career year that saw him put up 45 points.  Another season like that will have him well-positioned to earn a fair bit more than the $2.4MM qualifier he’s owed; a long-term deal would push past the $4MM mark.  Rooney spent most of last in the minors but since he has a one-way contract, he’s counting in full against Calgary’s cap for the time being.  He’s likely looking at a deal close to the minimum next summer.  Greer did alright on Boston’s fourth line last year, resulting in a preseason waiver claim by Calgary.  That said, that role in the lineup is usually filled by someone making the minimum or close to it.  Ruzicka has shown some offensive promise but his NHL minutes have been limited.  As things stand, a deal just past the $1MM mark is doable but with a bigger role this season, there’s room for him to beat that.

While there is a bit of optimism with Lindholm, there still isn’t a ton when it comes to Hanifin even though he said last month that he’s open to the idea.  As a number two defender, he’s in line for a considerable increase on a long-term deal regardless of who gives it to him.  He’ll be 27 next summer so a max-term contract surpassing the $7MM mark should be heading his way.  Tanev is a throwback shutdown defenseman, the type of player that isn’t seen as frequently now as it was a few years ago.  However, he has managed to stay relatively healthy with Calgary which will help his value.  It’d be a bit surprising if he beat this on his next deal but with his reputation, it could be possible.

Zadorov had a surprisingly strong season last year from a goal perspective, notching 14 after his prior career high was seven.  His size and physicality have allowed him to get some decent-sized contracts thus far despite being more of a fourth or fifth defender but a repeat of that performance offensively could really boost his market next summer.  If he reverts back to his usual level of production though, he still could push for something in the $4.5MM range.  Kylington missed all of last season for personal reasons and after vowing to be ready for this year, is back on LTIR for personal reasons once again.  At this point, it’s hard to pinpoint what his next deal might look like until he’s actually back in uniform.

Oesterle came to Calgary in free agency after spending the past two years in Detroit.  Until he can lock down an every-game role, he’s likely to stay below the $1MM mark.  As for Gilbert, he has yet to play a full NHL season and is therefore also likely to be below $1MM on his next deal.  The fact he has an AAV below the league minimum might help his chances of sticking at the top level, however.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Walker Duehr ($825K, UFA)
F Dryden Hunt ($775K, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($5.8MM, UFA)
F Yegor Sharangovich ($3.1MM, UFA)
G Daniel Vladar ($2.2MM, UFA)

Mangiapane wasn’t quite able to live up to his 35-goal breakout year in 2021-22, scoring instead at a second-line level.  That’s not a poor performance but from a value perspective, they’re paying him to be one of their go-to scorers, not a secondary piece.  Sharangovich was acquired in the Tyler Toffoli trade this summer, basically buying themselves an extra year of control with this contract that they quickly gave him.  The 2021-22 version is worth a bigger deal than this one on the open market while the one from last year wouldn’t be likely to get much more than this.  We’ll see which version he is for Calgary.

Duehr spent more time in the minors than the NHL last season but still managed to earn a one-way deal for his troubles.  Now, it’s about establishing himself as an every-game player and if that happens, he could land a deal a bit better than this one.  If his seven goals over 27 games translates to full-season production at that level though, then the $2MM mark is achievable.  Hunt bounced around the league last season, twice claimed on waivers before being traded at the deadline.  He’s a player on the fringes right now and those ones usually stay pretty close to the minimum.

Vladar has been in trade speculation dating back to the summer with Dustin Wolf showing that he’s ready for some NHL action.  However, they likely don’t want Wolf playing just once a week so how willing they are to move Vladar at this point is far from a certainty.  He’s still relatively inexperienced with one good and one not-so-good year under his belt.  More of the former could push him toward the $3MM mark but more years like last season will likely result in a dip on his next deal.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Rasmus Andersson ($4.55MM, UFA)
F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM in 2023-24, $4.5MM in 2024-25 and 2025-26)
G Jacob Markstrom ($6MM, UFA)

Backlund was originally planning to wait things out before deciding about possibly extending but had a change of heart and was immediately named captain thereafter.  He had a career year last season and if he stays at that level, this deal would be a team-friendly one quickly.  That’s not realistic but if he goes back to his career averages, this is a fair-value contract that will carry him through 18 seasons with the Flames.

Andersson started out his career in more of a supporting role but former GM Brad Treliving thought that the blueliner had another level to get to, handing him this six-year deal.  He was certainly proven right.  The 26-year-old had a 50-point showing in 2021-22 (his previous benchmark was 22) and followed it up with a 49-point effort last season while pushing his ATOI past the 24-minute mark.  Those are basically number one defenseman numbers for a player who is being paid like a third or fourth option.  Lots can happen over the next three seasons that could change things but if Andersson has three more years like the last two, he has a chance to push for double his current price tag in 2026.

Markstrom is coming off a down season but remains one of the more consistently reliable goalies across the NHL which helped land him this contract back in 2020 at a time when the cap was just starting to tighten.  It’s a deal that puts him in the top ten for cap hits among NHL netminders (including those that will be on LTIR for the entire year) but when he’s on his game, he’s worth the premium.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $75,316,667 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Leo Carlsson (three years, $925K)
D Jackson LaCombe (one year, $925K)
D Tristan Luneau (three years, $897K)
F Mason McTavish (two years, $894K)
D Pavel Mintyukov (three years, $918K)

Potential Bonuses
Carlsson: $3.25MM
LaCombe: $925K
Luneau: $80K
McTavish: $2.5MM
Mintyukov: $550K
Total: $7.31MM

Carlsson was the second-overall pick back in June and while he opens the season as a cap-exempt player on SOIR, that won’t be the case for long.  With Anaheim’s depth down the middle, they have the luxury of easing him in at center if they want or to start him on the wing.  It’s far too early to forecast a second contract but he’s a big part of their future plans.  McTavish is also a key cog for them for the long haul.  The third-overall pick in 2021 had a strong first full season and is expected to play a bigger role this year.  If he stays on that upward trajectory, he could command a long-term deal around the $8MM range that other young middlemen have landed.  That is, if GM Pat Verbeek is willing to break from his tendency of sticking with bridge deals.  In that case, something around $6MM could be the target.

LaCombe made his NHL debut late last season, burning the first year of his deal in the process.  He was quite productive with the University of Minnesota in his college career, particularly the last two years.  However, with him really only having one year to base his second contract on, it’s almost certain to be a short-term agreement.  If he holds a regular role this year, it could check in around the $1.5MM mark.  Luneau and Mintyukov both broke camp with the team but might not be up for too long.  Two of the top blueliners in major junior last season, both have considerable offensive upside which will serve them well on their second contracts.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Sam Carrick ($850K, UFA)
F Benoit-Olivier Groulx ($775K, RFA)
F Adam Henrique ($5.825MM, UFA)
F Brett Leason ($775K, RFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($1.8MM, RFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Max Jones ($1.295MM, RFA)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Urho Vaakanainen ($850K, RFA)

Get used to hearing Henrique’s name in trade speculation throughout the season.  When healthy, he has shown he can still play on a second line although his role on a contender might be a bit lower.  Henrique’s injury trouble will limit his value on the open market, however.  He’s still capable of putting up 20 goals – he did so just last season – but as he starts to look more like a third-liner moving forward, his value will drop accordingly.  Something in the $3.5MM range might be the right spot.  Silfverberg is another trade deadline rental candidate assuming the Ducks retain a sizable portion.  He has struggled the last few years and is more of a role player at this point in his career.  In free agency, those players typically get about a third of what he’s making now.

Lundestrom’s platform year isn’t off to a good start as he suffered a torn Achilles tendon back in August, keeping him out for the first half of the season at a minimum.  Between that, the fact he’s coming off just a four-goal showing, and the fact that he filed for arbitration on his last deal, it’s possible that he becomes a non-tender candidate.  Otherwise, a one-year agreement at or very close to this price tag is where his next deal should be.  Jones has also battled injuries on his current deal but is coming off a career-best showing last year.  If he can build on that, he could land a bit more than his $1.5MM qualifying offer next summer.

Carrick had 11 goals back in 2021-22 which helped him earn this deal after being primarily an AHL regular before that point.  He’s a pure fourth liner which will cap his earnings upside unless he’s able to put up another double-digit showing offensively this season.  Groulx is the beneficiary from Lundestrom’s injury as he was able to break camp with the team.  He has primarily been in the AHL so far which doesn’t give him much leverage in negotiations but if he can lock down a full-time role, he could come in close to the $1MM mark.  Leason was claimed off waivers last season and played a somewhat regular role.  Similar to Groulx, if he can become an every-game player, he could land a small raise next summer as well.

Lyubushkin comes over following a late-summer trade as Verbeek continues to add grit to his roster.  He’s a third-pairing blueliner with some limitations but if last summer was any indication, it’s quite possible that he lands a similar-sized multi-year agreement in 2024 given the desire for right-shot blueliners around the league.  Vaakanainen just hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  Anaheim picked him up as part of the Hampus Lindholm trade, hoping he could be a part of their future plans on the back end.  That still could happen but with how much time he has missed, a one-year deal next summer is likely, one that should check in near the $1MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Lukas Dostal ($812.5K, RFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($3.65MM, UFA)

Vatrano’s first season with Anaheim was a successful one as he set a new career high in points with 41 while topping the 20-goal mark for just the second time.  At the time the deal was signed in 2022, this looked like a bit of an overpayment but if he can sustain those numbers, they’ll get a good return on the contract while the veteran will have a strong case for another multi-year pact in the $4MM range.  McGinn was a salary dump from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline but while he’s overpaid for his role, he’s still a serviceable checker.  His market value is around $1MM less than what he’s making now.

Dostal is in his first full NHL season after being up and down between Anaheim and AHL San Diego the last couple of years.  If he can hold his own as a backup, he should easily double this price tag.  If he can push to play more than just a typical backup, something closer to $3MM becomes potentially plausible.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Jamie Drysdale ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Cam Fowler ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($4MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Trevor Zegras ($5.75MM, RFA)

It took a while for Zegras and Anaheim to come to terms on the bridge deal that many expected but an agreement was reached just before the season.  The contract gives both sides more time to assess if he can become a true number one middleman.  If so, it’s possible that his next contract is closer to the $9MM mark while even if he stays around the 60-point mark that he has reached the last two years, he’d still be well-positioned for a decent raise with arbitration rights in 2026.  Johnston was just claimed off waivers this week, giving the Ducks a true enforcer, further enhancing their grit.  He had a very limited role with the Islanders and will need to lock down a regular spot by the time this deal is up if he wants another seven-figure AAV.

Fowler isn’t a true number one blueliner from the standpoint of being a high-end offensive producer who also plays on the top penalty kill.  But he’s not far from that either.  He is typically Anaheim’s best offensive weapon each season while logging big minutes in all situations.  For the contract that he’s on relative to the role he fills on their back end, this deal has aged well for the Ducks so far.  Fowler will be turning 35 soon after his next contract begins, however, which will hurt him a bit.  Performance-wise, there’s a case to be made that he’s worthy of a fair-sized raise.  However, his age will negate that.  Accordingly, a multi-year deal around this price point might be where his next deal lands assuming his recent level of performance holds up.

Gudas was another addition made with an eye on upgrading team toughness.  He has shown that he’s best suited to play on a third pairing but that he can log bigger minutes if needed.  This is an overpayment for that type of role but with so many of their blueliners being youngsters that could legitimately be a couple of years away, the term shouldn’t hurt them much.  Drysdale’s deal also just came together recently; his contract was more complex after he missed almost all of last season with a shoulder injury.  He’s going to be part of the long-term core but with just 113 games under his belt, it’s still hard to assess how much of an impact he’ll be able to make.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $93,989,461 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Knies (two years, $925K)
F Fraser Minten (three years, $845K)

Knies made an immediate impression late last season, eventually playing his way into Toronto’s playoff lineup.  He should be counted on to play a regular role this year but if he spends a lot of time on the third line as he’s starting on, it’ll be hard to make a case for an early extension.  If he progresses as planned, a bridge deal could push around the $2.5MM mark.  Minten somewhat surprisingly made the team after a strong training camp.  It’s possible his stint is a short-term one so it’s a bit premature to forecast what his next deal might cost.  Neither deal has performance bonuses (no player in the organization has any) so they’re not as risk of carryover charges on that front.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Bertuzzi ($5.5MM, UFA)
D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Max Domi ($3MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($800K, UFA)
F Noah Gregor ($775K, RFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.15MM, UFA)
D Timothy Liljegren ($1.4MM, RFA)
G Matt Murray ($4.6875MM, UFA)*
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
G Ilya Samsonov ($3.55MM, UFA)

*-Ottawa is retaining another $1.5625MM on Murray’s deal.

Nylander is shaping up to be one of the more interesting pending unrestricted free agents.  He has certainly outproduced his contract, becoming a legitimate top-line threat.  Now, the team has dabbled with him playing down the middle (which could resume if/when Minten is returned to junior) and even killing penalties.  If he does well in those situations, his value will only go up.  It’s believed his asking price is at least $10MM on a max-term agreement, a price tag Toronto isn’t willing to pay at the moment.  Negotiations were hard-fought last time around with a deal coming down to mere minutes before the deadline that would have made him ineligible.  It won’t come quite to that point next summer though as he’ll have enough suitors to get a deal done quickly if he makes it to the open market.

Bertuzzi’s market didn’t materialize to his liking this past summer.  Seeking a long-term deal and bigger money, he landed neither of those, quickly pivoting instead to a pillow contract.  He’s a good fit inside their top six and if things go as planned (while staying healthy), he should line himself up for at least a small raise and a multi-year deal next summer.  The same can’t be said for Domi, a player who has bounced around the last few years.  His two UFA contracts have been at this price point and unless he drastically improves (or regresses), it’s reasonable to think the next one should check in close to this as well.  Gregor was able to convert a PTO into a full deal after being non-tendered by San Jose.  Arbitration eligibility could work against him next summer as this is a roster spot the Maple Leafs will need to keep at the league minimum while he could make a case for a bit more than that if he holds down a spot on the fourth line.

Brodie is capable of logging big minutes but, in recent years, his offensive production hasn’t been the most consistent.  If he’s putting up 30 points as he was in Calgary, this price tag is one he can justify.  When that’s not the case, it becomes an above-market deal and considering he’ll be 34 next summer, he might be hard-pressed to command this much at that time.   Klingberg, for the second year in a row, had to settle for a pillow deal with the hopes of bolstering his market for the following summer.  On a more offensive-minded squad, he might have a better chance of succeeding this time around.  A big raise might not be likely but a multi-year agreement might be in reach.

Liljegren has been eased into the league with last season being his heaviest workload even though it was still in a limited role.  On a thinner back end depth-wise, that should change as in-season injuries come into play.  If he does well, he should be in a position to push for $1MM more than his $1.5MM qualifying offer.  But if he remains in a depth role, Toronto will be trying to keep his price closer to where it is now.  Giordano left a lot of money on the table to stay with his hometown team.  Yes, he’s now the oldest player in the league but he can provide a lot of surplus value on this agreement.  If he plays another season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it around this price tag as he aims for one last push for a Stanley Cup.

Muzzin and Murray are both done for the season already and have been placed on LTIR.  Muzzin, who was recently named as a scout for the Maple Leafs, is likely done for his career while Murray’s situation isn’t quite as certain.  The two sides opted to wait several months for surgery, allowing him to stay on LTIR for the whole season but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to catch on somewhere.  However, with his injury history, it’ll be on a contract that’s close to the minimum.

Samsonov wound up going to a hearing to get this contract, one that felt a bit lower than some expected.  However, he still doesn’t have the track record of being a successful long-term starter.  One more good, healthy year with Toronto might get him there and if that’s the case, he could push toward the $5MM or more range on a multi-year agreement next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
D Jake McCabe ($2MM, UFA)*
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($1.1MM, RFA)
G Joseph Woll ($767K, RFA)

*-Chicago is retaining another $2MM on McCabe’s contract.

Tavares has had a good run with Toronto, averaging nearly a point per game since signing with them in 2018.  Of course, at that price tag, they were expecting a bit more production from him while the stagnation in the salary cap has made this contract sting more as well.  He’ll be 35 when his next contract starts and it’s fair to say he’ll be heading for a fairly significant dip in pay.  The same can’t be said for Marner who will still be in his prime (28) when this deal is up.  Assuming his next two seasons are similar to the last two, he’ll be in a position to take aim at the priciest deal for a winger in NHL history; he’s about $740K below that now.

McCabe fared a bit better in Chicago compared to his time with Buffalo, resulting in the Maple Leafs parting with a first-round pick to get him near the trade deadline.  He won’t light up the scoresheet but can play in the top four and log some tough minutes.  Those players aren’t getting huge deals on the open market now but McCabe should be able to land a small raise (on his full deal, not just Toronto’s portion) and another multi-year agreement.  Timmins has shown some flashes of offensive upside in his limited NHL action but first, he’ll need to establish himself as a third-pairing regular before his value will start to go up.  If he can eventually work his way onto the second power play pairing, he’ll have a chance to double his current AAV in a couple of years.  Otherwise, his arbitration eligibility could work against him.

This is Woll’s first season as a full-fledged NHL backup which means he doesn’t have much of a track record to build on yet.  If he has success in the number two role over the next couple of years, an AAV in the $2MM range is achievable.  If he forces his way into more playing time though, then he could push his way toward Samsonov’s deal.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.35MM, UFA)

Jarnkrok opted for a longer-term deal than many expected last summer, a deal that worked out pretty well for Toronto in year one as he put up 20 goals for the first time in his career.  History suggests he might not get back to that point but even if he drops a few from that total, they’ll still get good value here.  Reaves also signed for longer than many expected as 36-year-old fourth liners typically don’t command three years.  However, while enforcers aren’t as plentiful as they were before, there’s a reason that Reaves always seems to be coveted by teams.  Speculatively, it’s hard to see him getting another contract in three years but stranger things have happened.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $90,448,333 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None that are projected to make the roster or play a prominent role this season.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
F Logan Brown ($775K, RFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($775K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Tyler Motte ($800K, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Considering the number of times that Tampa Bay has extended its core players as soon as possible under GM Julien BriseBois, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the same thing would happen to Stamkos.  Surprisingly, it hasn’t, an outcome that the captain himself isn’t too pleased about.  While his output slowed last season, he still put up 34 goals and averaged more than a point per game.  At this price point, that’s still pretty good value.  Stamkos will be 34 next summer and in a position to earn another multi-year agreement, likely with a market value around what he’s making now unless he slows down considerably this year.  BriseBois is taking a wait-and-see approach to see if Stamkos still fits on the team moving forward, a question that might not be able to be answered until we know the actual Upper Limit for 2024-25.

Motte was a late-summer signing after Josh Archibald decided to not play this year.  This is the second straight summer where his camp has misread the market, resulting in a lower-than-expected contract.  Assuming he has a similar showing this year as he has had lately, a small raise should be achievable as long as he doesn’t set his sights too high again early in free agency.  Brown comes in after being non-tendered by St. Louis and if he can earn a spot in the lineup when he returns from an injury that will keep him out at the start of the season, he could get a small raise or at least more guaranteed money next year.  Barre-Boulet is listed here as he’s tied for the lowest cap hit in the league which gives him a shot at a spot on the fourth line.  Primarily a minor leaguer the last two years, he’s likely to stay around the minimum salary next year.

Among the blueliners, Seabrook’s career has been over since late 2019.  He’ll be on LTIR for one more season and then the Lightning can try to work back to being a non-LTIR team, ideally giving them a chance to back a bit of in-season flexibility.  Meanwhile, Myers isn’t even on the roster now as a decision to extend him around this time last year didn’t pan out as he’s already cleared waivers.  However, they’ll still carry a $250K charge even with him in the minors.  Considering what they’re currently over their LTIR ceiling by, that small amount is notable.  Myers will likely wind up with a deal close to the minimum next summer.

Bogosian’s days of being an every-game player are done but he can still hold his own on a third pairing.  With his usage the last few years though, it’s hard to see him getting more than this on the open market next year.  Tampa Bay brought in de Haan this summer and it’s possible he winds up platooning with Bogosian in that part-time role.  Barring him having a bounce-back year, this is the range he’ll be in price-wise moving forward.  Fleury is another player on a sub-minimum contract which gives him some value from a depth perspective.  He has had a very limited role the past couple of years and at this point, he might be heading for a two-way deal next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Michael Eyssimont ($800K, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($800K, UFA)
D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
F Tanner Jeannot ($2.665MM, UFA)
G Jonas Johansson ($775K, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM, UFA)

The Lightning paid a high price at the trade deadline to land Jeannot and they weren’t exactly rewarded for their investment.  He’s poised to have an important role this season and if he can get close to his 2021-22 performance, he could be in line for a decent-sized raise with the premium power forwards typically get.  Eyssimont opted to take some job security over testing the open market in the summer, understandable considering he was a waiver claim last year.  If he can secure a full-time spot with Tampa Bay, he could set himself up for a small bump, even if he stays on the fourth line.  Glendening is basically a faceoff specialist who can kill penalties at this point of his career.  He might have left some money on the table to sign with Tampa Bay but his value is going to be limited moving forward.

The same can’t be said for Hedman.  While he couldn’t match his career-best 85 points from 2021-22, he still produced at better than a 50-point pace while averaging nearly 24 minutes a night.  While he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts (turning 35 early the following season), he should still be capable of covering 20 minutes a night while playing in all situations.  A small pay cut might be needed but he’ll have plenty of interest if he gets to the open market.  Perbix had a nice rookie season after being a college free agent signing.  He’ll be tasked with covering a regular role on the third pairing and if he can hold that down for two years, he’ll hit the market in his prime (at 27) which could allow him to possibly double this AAV at that time.

Johansson was a bit of a curious signing to be Tampa Bay’s backup given his lack of NHL success but keeping the cost as low as possible (in this case, it couldn’t be lower) was a priority.  Now that he’ll be thrust into the number one role for a couple of months, this will be his chance to show the league that he’s a capable netminder at the top level.  A good showing in this stretch – even though it’s not his free agent year – might be enough to allow him to push for a seven-figure AAV next time out.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Darren Raddysh ($762.5K in 2023-24, $975K in 2024-25 and 2025-26)
F Conor Sheary ($2MM, UFA)

Sheary comes over from Washington after two consecutive seasons of being a capable secondary scorer.  The risk here is relatively low for the Lightning as if he even produces 30-35 points, they should get a good return on this deal.

Raddysh didn’t play a lot during the regular season but logged more than 25 minutes a game in the playoffs, giving him enough leverage to get a two-year, one-way extension back in June, a pretty good outcome for someone who has cleared waivers in each of the last two training camps.  That shouldn’t be the case this time around and as a capable producer in the minors, this could be a team-friendly deal if he’s able to become a secondary point provider from the back end.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $83,379,047 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Jake Sanderson (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Sanderson: $1.85MM

We’ll get more in depth on Sanderson’s deal later on but this deal has $850K in ‘A’ bonuses, four valued at $212.5K each.  He hit all four last year (All-Rookie team, blocks, ATOI, and assists) and while the first one is no longer available, he has a decent chance of maxing them out again or at least coming very close.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Erik Brannstrom ($2MM, RFA)
F Parker Kelly ($762.5K, UFA)
F Dominik Kubalik ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($5MM, UFA)

Tarasenko’s market never really materialized as he was hoping for as even after an agent change, the price tag came in lower than expected with just a one-year term.  He didn’t repeat his better than a point-per-game effort from 2021-22 but still produced nicely at a top-six level.  This contract is certainly fair for a 50-point player with a track record suggesting he’s capable of more.  While it has created the crunch they find themselves in, it’s not a bad value agreement.  We’ll see if going this route winds up propelling him into a longer-term deal next summer.

Kubalik came over from Detroit as part of the Alex DeBrincat trade.  He had a career year last season although he slowed down as the year went on.  If he can get a fifth season of at least 15 goals under his belt, he could position himself for at least a small raise on another multi-year deal.  Kelly was a serviceable fourth liner last season, showing he can kill penalties and play with some physicality.  The offense needs to come around, however, if he wants to move off the minimum salary.

Brannstrom established himself as a regular last season but his offensive game, one that made him a first-round pick by Vegas several years ago, hasn’t come around just yet.  Additionally, his playing time dipped by over three and a half minutes per game as he went from a part-time spot in the top four to a full-time spot on the bottom pair.  It’s fair to say that the Sens still see some upside in him as evidenced by this contract but another season like this could have him approaching non-tender territory since he’ll be eligible for salary arbitration.  Speculatively, this could be a deal they wind up trying to move to open up cap room.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Jakob Chychrun ($4.6MM, UFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Mark Kastelic ($835K, RFA)

Giroux showed last season that he can still be a top-line player, posting his best showing since the 2018-19 campaign while giving Ottawa a strong return on that first year.  He’ll be 37 when his next contract comes due, however, so the expectation will be that he either goes year-to-year at that point or takes a discounted two-year deal as players in his situation often do.  Kastelic had a limited role last season but was effective on the fourth line, earning himself his first one-way deal in the process.  As is the case with Kelly, he’ll need to show a bit more offensively to get past the $1MM mark (when he’ll also have arbitration rights) in 2025.

Chychrun came over in a late-season trade from Arizona and really helped to stabilize a relatively inexperienced back end.  He hasn’t been able to match his 2020-21 breakout showing offensively with the Coyotes and if that holds up, that will hold back his earnings upside somewhat.  Despite that, if he can stay healthy, his next deal could push into the $7MM range.  Hamonic took a sizable cut compared to his previous contract to stay in Ottawa although that was going to happen no matter where he wound up.  He’s effective in a limited role and this price point works for the Senators.

Forsberg took a step back last season with his on-ice performance while dealing with injury issues that limited him to just 28 appearances.  Now set as the backup after GM Pierre Dorion turned to free agency to shore up his goaltending, that workload might be closer to his new normal.  It’s a tier below the top backups which is around where he should slot in.  He’ll need more years like his 2021-22 showing if he wants to get to upper-end backup money.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Mathieu Joseph ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($775K, UFA)

Joseph showed lots of promise down the stretch in 2022 when Ottawa acquired him, resulting in this contract.  Unfortunately for them, he struggled mightily last season, scoring just three times in 56 games which is hardly what anyone was expecting.  This is the contract that the Sens are believed to be trying to move right now although in this cap environment, that’s much easier said than done.  MacEwen accepted a rare three-year, minimum-salary deal this summer, one that guarantees him a one-way deal throughout.  He’s projected to be on the fourth line or as a reserve forward if and when they can carry extra players so it’ll be difficult for them not to get a reasonable return.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $89,677,916 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Justin Barron (one year, $925K)
D Kaiden Guhle (two years, $863K)
F Juraj Slafkovsky (two years, $950K)
D Arber Xhekaj (one year, $828K)

Potential Bonuses
Barron: $275K
Guhle: $420K
Slafkovsky: $3.5MM
Total: $4.195MM

Slafkovsky’s rookie season was a rough one as he had a limited role in the first half before an injury ended his year before he had reached the 40-game mark.  Assuming he has a similar spot on the depth chart this season, his offensive trajectory won’t change much, making him a likely bridge candidate.  It also makes his bonuses (including four ‘A’ ones) unlikely to be met.

Barron split last year between the NHL and AHL and Montreal’s defensive depth could force him down to start again.  If he does stick, however, he should at least hit some of his ‘B’ bonus for games played ($62.5K is the maximum).  A bridge deal would run him somewhere near the $1.5MM mark.  Guhle’s first professional season was a strong one as he logged over 20 minutes a night.  Limited offensive production could make a long-term deal tough but if he’s viewed as a core player, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montreal take a run at it.  He has two ‘A’ bonuses in his deal which could be reachable.  Xhekaj was one of the bigger surprises in the league last year, going from an undrafted junior free agent signing right to the NHL.  He had sheltered minutes and, like Barron, could see his waiver exemption work against him.  Assuming he sticks full-time, his role should be similar, paving the way for a bridge contract next summer also in the $1.5MM territory.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Gustav Lindstrom ($950K, RFA)
F Sean Monahan ($1.985MM, UFA)
G Samuel Montembeault ($1MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($762.5K, UFA)
F Jesse Ylonen ($775K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses:
Monahan: $15K

Pearson was acquired earlier this month from Vancouver and will be looking to rebuild some value after undergoing multiple wrist surgeries which caused him to miss most of last season.  At the moment, his next price tag should come in below this one.  Monahan got off to a strong start last year before multiple injuries ended his year prematurely.  Given his injury history, he opted to take an early extension from the Canadiens over testing the market.  The bonus becomes payable once he plays in 26 games.  Ylonen is now waiver-eligible for the first time and will be looking to lock down a regular spot on the roster.  He did well enough in limited action last season to position himself for a small raise so if he can become a regular, his next deal should pass the $1MM mark.

Lindstrom was re-signed quickly by Detroit after being non-tendered to avoid arbitration and was flipped to Montreal last month.  His role shouldn’t be much different though as he’s likely to remain a sixth or seventh defender.  Until he can establish himself as a full-time regular who doesn’t need sheltered minutes, his earnings upside will be somewhat limited.  Wideman struggled last season after a decent first year with Montreal.  The back issues that hindered him last season have already resurfaced so his next contract, if there is one, is likely to also be at the minimum.

When Montembeault signed this contract last year, it was a sign that both sides were unsure of his upside.  After a rough first season in Montreal, was there another level he could get to?  His performance last year suggests there might be.  He struggled down the stretch but in the first half of the season, his save percentage was above the league average on a team that gave up a lot of scoring opportunities.  He then had a strong showing at the Worlds in May to cap off his year.  His track record isn’t strong enough to push for top backup money yet but another season like this past one could push his asking price into the $2MM territory while another small step forward could push it closer to $3MM.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Jake Allen ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Joel Armia ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Christian Dvorak ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Jake Evans ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jordan Harris ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Rafael Harvey-Pinard ($1.1MM, RFA)
D Johnathan Kovacevic ($766.7K, UFA)
F Michael Pezzetta ($812.5K, UFA)
D David Savard ($3.5MM, UFA)

Former GM Marc Bergevin hoped that Dvorak would be able to fill the role that Jesperi Kotkaniemi was supposed to after Montreal declined to match his offer sheet with Carolina.  That hasn’t happened; instead, he has settled in more as a third-line option.  In this market, that’s a bit of a premium price.  Armia’s contract is definitely a premium as his offense just hasn’t come around.  He’s a capable defensive player but someone who is more or less valued in that role should be closer to half this price.

It looked like Evans was going to be a bargain last season.  Coming off a career year in 2021-22, he was expected to push for some playing time on the third line.  That didn’t exactly happen and he scored just twice in 54 games.  If he can get back to the 29 points he had the year before though, they can still get a good return on this deal.  Harvey-Pinard impressed in a midseason recall and while a 24.1% success rate on shots isn’t maintainable, he doesn’t need to produce at that clip to live up to this bridge deal.  Pezzetta is an end-of-roster player at a price tag that’s pretty close to the league minimum so they’ll do fine with that contract.

Savard logged big minutes last season due to a dearth of veterans on the back end.  He’s not an ideal top-pairing piece at this point of his career; a fourth or fifth role is where he’s better suited.  That role for this price tag is a bit on the high side but as long as he stays healthy, it’s a deal that they should be able to move if they want to.  Harris had a decent rookie campaign, establishing himself as a regular.  With only one full year under his belt, he was basically limited to a short-term second contract.  He’ll need to show that he can produce a bit more if he wants to land a sizable raise when this agreement is up.

Allen was extended to give Montreal a capable veteran netminder to help them through the next phase of their rebuild.  However, he’s coming off a tough year that saw him put up his worst showing statistically by a significant margin and is now one of the top-paid platoon options.  He’ll need to show considerable improvement to have a shot at beating this price point in 2025.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Kirby Dach ($3.363MM, RFA)
D Michael Matheson ($4.875MM, UFA)
G Carey Price ($10.5MM, UFA)

GM Kent Hughes paid a fairly big price to land Dach at the 2022 draft in a move that was surprising on both fronts – Montreal, a rebuilding team, moving multiple assets to add a player and Chicago, another rebuilding team, giving up on Dach so quickly.  The early returns were promising for the Canadiens as Dach locked down a top-six spot, splitting time between center and the wing while having a career year despite missing 24 games due to injuries.  Still just 22, they’re hoping that there’s more to come offensively and if that happens, the Canadiens will get a strong return on this contract fairly quickly.  Notably, the deal is structured so that Dach will be owed a $4MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights in 2026 so a raise will be on the horizon.

Matheson’s career has featured some ups and downs so far.  Back with Florida, this contract looked like a bargain, then a negative-value contract soon after.  He rebuilt some value in Pittsburgh but found another gear with Montreal.  Their young back end pressed him into a true number one role and, when healthy, he made the most of it as an all-situations player.  While he’s not a number one option in terms of talent, the Canadiens will get great value on this deal if he continues to have success in that spot.

Price’s playing days are over and he will remain on LTIR for the next three seasons.  While his contract is somewhat limiting in terms of forcing them into LTIR (meaning bonus carryover penalties), it’s a tenable situation for them to work within.  Notably, he’s still owed $17MM in total compensation which will make it difficult to move, unlike certain back-diving contracts that have moved (largely to Arizona) in recent years.

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