Snapshots: NHL Expansion, Spurgeon, Nylander
In a recent episode of Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun expressed confidence that the NHL will be expanding, sharing it’s a matter of when rather than if. The TSN panel shared four cities that could be up for a new NHL team: Houston, Atlanta, Salt Lake City, and Quebec City. LeBrun added, “It felt like [Bettman] was so close to saying it was just going to happen… he kept talking about the recurring conversations of interest he’s having with those four cities.”
However, the TSN group also shared that before the league can worry about adding new teams, they’ll need to find clarity around the Arizona Coyotes arena situation. This certainly makes sense – the league needs to keep any relocation options open – but may also freeze any expansion talks for the short term. Bettman has recently expressed optimism in the Coyotes’ ability to find a new, more permanent home in the desert, although nothing is set in stone just yet. Arizona’s situation will be key to watch as the NHL considers where to add new franchises, and how many cities could be in line for expansion.
Other notes from around the league:
- Minnesota Wild captain Jared Spurgeon took a hard hit in the team’s Thursday night preseason game. He sat out of the rest of the game and may be dealing with an injury that holds him out for even longer. Head coach Dean Evason said, “It’s not positive, but we’ll get a better evaluation tomorrow.” This will be an important thing to monitor, as Spurgeon’s impact in Minnesota is second to none. In addition to serving as their captain for the last three seasons, Spurgeon has also become a consistent double-digit goal-scorer capable of 40-point seasons. Wild fans will hold their breath, as his availability for opening night now seems uncertain.
- The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel shared that Toronto forward William Nylander gave his agent, Lewis Gross, permission to continue negotiating a contract extension into the regular season. However, Nylander said he doesn’t want to hear updates until negotiations are closer to the finish line. Gross, notably, also represents Johnny Gaudreau, who had his own round of contract extension discussions with now-Leafs general manager Brad Treliving. The two sides, Gross and Treliving, aren’t unfamiliar with big-money extension discussions, which should be an interesting contributor to Nylander’s ongoing discussions.
East Notes: Nylander, Pinto, Lafrenière
The Toronto Maple Leafs are returning to an experiment that’s yielded middling returns at best when tried in the past. Head coach Sheldon Keefe is beginning training camp by utilizing William Nylander at center, putting the Swede back in the position he played when he was drafted in a crucial year for both team and player.
In theory, the move could pay serious dividends if kept long-term. It allows Keefe to roll out Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares on three separate units while letting David Kämpf hone his shutdown specialty in a fourth-line role. If Nylander can adapt to playing down the middle, it would also give more support to a rag-tag group of wingers made up of skilled free-agent signings on one-year deals and youngsters looking to prove they can handle full-time roles. He hasn’t ever stuck as a full-time center, however, and he was famously moved there by former head coach Mike Babcock during the postseason early in his career. It didn’t work out – he scored just three goals through his first three playoff series, but he’s exploded since then and solidified himself as a consistent playoff performer – which is more than other stars on the team can say.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference today:
- Things are still progressing on the Shane Pinto front for the Ottawa Senators. The RFA remains without a contract as training camp looms in a matter of hours now, but general manager Pierre Dorion tells TSN’s Claire Hanna he’s getting “creative” in freeing up cap space to sign the young center. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch also chimed in today, reporting the Sens and Pinto aren’t far apart on a new deal but that many moving parts (i.e., creating cap space via trade) still need to get worked out. While it’s anyone’s guess if Pinto will be in attendance for the first day of training camp, it does seem the wheels are in motion to make things work, and it won’t be too much longer before he reports, new contract in hand.
- New York Rangers head coach Peter Laviolette says he’ll open camp with 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafrenière at right wing. Many have speculated a move to his off-wing could be beneficial for the 21-year-old, who’s struggled to find ice time on the left wing behind Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin. It could work out to be a prudent move for the Rangers’ new bench boss, as getting both Lafrenière and Kaapo Kakko clicking in top-six roles out of the gate alongside the team’s veteran firepower would be incredibly impactful for their long-term futures with the team.
Leafs Notes: Murray, Muzzin, Nylander
In an interview before training camp, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving revealed that Matt Murray would need “significant” surgery that would take months to recover from. No other details were provided, in an effort to maintain Murray’s privacy.
The Leafs shared that Murray would begin the season on long-term injured reserve back in July and have been preparing for Ilya Samsonov to take the starter’s net ever since. Little detail was provided for why Murray would be on LTIR at the time and, while this update isn’t entirely telling in its own right, it seems fans now have a sense of what to expect with one of the newest Leafs goalies.
Murray posted a .903 save percentage and 14-8-2 record in only 26 games last season, his first with the Maple Leafs. The 29-year-old goalie carries a $4.6875MM cap hit this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
More Leafs Notes:
- Treliving also shared that defender Jake Muzzin won’t play this season. Muzzin suffered a cervical spine fracture in November of 2022 that’s put his entire playing career into doubt. This latest announcement doesn’t add much optimism either. Muzzin is also on an expiring contract, carrying a $5.625MM cap hit through the season.
- Treliving also provided an update on top winger William Nylander, sharing that getting Nylander signed to an extension was a priority for the team. This update falls in line with what fans have been hearing recently, but getting it emphasized from the general manager is good assurance to those worried that the Leafs may lose their 40-goal scorer.
East Notes: Nylander, Rangers, Knight
The contract status of Maple Leafs forward William Nylander is sure to draw plenty of attention this season as he enters the final year of his contract. In the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests that there probably isn’t going to be a resolution soon and that discussions will likely occur throughout the season. Notably, he adds that there have been talks about testing Nylander down the middle, a position he played earlier in his career. Nylander is already eyeing a sizable raise that would push his AAV into to the $10MM range but if he is able to see some time at center and play well, his market value would only increase given the high demand for impact middlemen. If that happens, he could very well price himself out of what Toronto can afford.
More from the Eastern Conference:
- At the moment, the Rangers don’t have any players on PTOs heading to training camp with them. However, Arthur Staple of The Athletic relays (Twitter link) that GM Chris Drury hasn’t ruled out the idea of bringing one in over the coming days. New York doesn’t have many openings on their roster and they have a handful of forwards and blueliners that should contend for a spot so unless there’s a proven upgrade willing to come to camp on a tryout, it might make more sense for the Rangers to stay with what they have.
- Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight spoke with Ken Campbell of The Hockey News to discuss the events that transpired that ultimately resulted in him stepping away from the team in February to enter the NHL/NHL Players’ Association Player Assistance Program. Knight didn’t return during Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final but participated in their development camp this summer and is expected to be a full participant in training camp next week when he’ll look to reclaim the other spot in their tandem with Sergei Bobrovsky.
Snapshots: Nylander, Flames, Senators
In a recent interview with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, new Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving spoke about contract talks with William Nylander. He made it clear that Toronto wants to re-sign the top-six winger, adding, “[Nylander] is a very good player and you always want to keep the good players… he’s told me he wants to be in Toronto. If there’s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.”
Leafs fans certainly hope that optimism means good things for future negotiations. Nylander scored 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games last season, his second year in a row setting career highs in both of those stats. He’s a consistent goal-scoring threat, entering the final year of a contract with a cap hit just below $7MM. A new deal will likely come with a raise, although Toronto currently has 12 other skaters slated to hit free agency next summer, in addition to Nylander. That could make it hard for the team to afford his services for much longer, although an early extension may help them prepare a bit more.
More from around the league:
- The Calgary Flames have officially hired a slew of new staff. This includes bringing on Kerry Huffman and Brad Richardson as Pro Scouts. Richardson appeared in 27 games with Calgary during his playing career, while Huffman played a bulk of his career with the Ottawa Senators and Quebec Nordiques next door.
- The sale of the Ottawa Senators could close as soon as next week. The selling of the franchise has been major news for much of the summer, with Michael Andlauer emerging as the eventual buyer. Andlauer owned a 10 percent stake in the Montreal Canadiens before bidding on the Senators. His bid also features Anna and Olivia Melnyk, Jeff York, and the Ottawa-based real estate Malhorta family.
Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Watson, Chiasson
While the Maple Leafs were able to get an extension done with Auston Matthews earlier this week, it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on a new deal with pending UFA William Nylander. Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun relays that the two sides are at least $1MM apart per year on a new agreement. Toronto is hoping to sign the 27-year-old around the $9MM mark while his camp is seeking something starting with a ten. Nylander is coming off a career year that saw him put up 87 points in 82 games, his second straight campaign of at least 80 points. If Nylander doesn’t sign now and goes and has another 80-point showing, he should be well-positioned to have someone meet his asking price on the open market next summer.
More from the Atlantic:
- Earlier this week, veteran winger Austin Watson agreed to a tryout deal with Tampa Bay but it was a bit surprising that it came to that point. Senators play-by-play voice Dean Brown recently reported (Twitter link) that his former team in Ottawa offered him a one-year contract earlier in free agency but that the 31-year-old was hoping to land a three-year agreement. Clearly, that didn’t come to fruition and resulted in very limited interest on the open market. That said, Watson should have a good chance to earn a spot with the Lightning with several key checkers leaving the organization this summer. However, with their salary cap situation, his deal, should he land one, is almost certain to be at or close to the minimum salary of $775K.
- Winger Alex Chiasson told Kevin Paul Dupont of The Boston Globe that he received a “fair number” of PTO offers around the NHL this summer. In the end, he chose the Bruins based on his perceiving an opportunity to land a regular roster spot along with a desire to play for a contender. This will be Chiasson’s fifth training camp on a PTO. He landed an NHL deal with the first three while the fourth (with Arizona last season) was unsuccessful.
Maple Leafs Notes: Keefe, Matthews, Depth, Nylander, Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving held a press conference today after Auston Matthews‘ four-year extension earlier this week, touching on various topics related to the organization. One of them was the future of head coach Sheldon Keefe, who Treliving said he’s “enjoyed getting to know,” and the two parties will continue to work on an extension.
Since taking over behind the Toronto bench early in the 2019-20 season after the team fired Mike Babcock, Keefe has put together a 166-71-30 record as an NHL head coach, good enough for a .678 points percentage. The 42-year-old coach is entering the final season of a two-year extension he had signed before the 2021-22 campaign started. While he hasn’t yet guided the team to any sustained playoff success, he has overseen one of the most successful regular-season stretches in franchise history, leading Toronto to have one of the longest active playoff streaks in the league. Without a Conference Final appearance to speak of, however, it would surprise many to see a long-term extension for Keefe announced.
Elsewhere in Leafland:
- Treliving said contract negotiations with Matthews were far from animous, calling the talks a “partnership more than a negotiation.” Matthews will have the highest cap hit in league history when the extension kicks in for the 2024-25 campaign with $13.25MM per season, but Treliving was expecting to dole out that much cash. “In the situation he’s in, he could have come in and demanded more than he got,” Treliving said.
- Regarding filling out the rest of the roster, Toronto is still in a delicate dance with the salary cap, needing to shed about $3MM before the season starts, even with LTIR relief, CapFriendly projects. That hasn’t stopped Treliving from considering a few minor additions, he said today, although he didn’t indicate whether those would come in the form of tryouts or guaranteed one-year contracts before training camps start next month.
- Treliving also spoke briefly about winger William Nylander‘s pending free agency, now his main order of business after getting Matthews extended. Like Nylander said earlier this week, however, Treliving feels no rush or deadline to get a deal done at the moment, willing to let negotiations play out and remain civil and productive. If the two sides can’t bridge the reported multi-million dollar gap, however, it’s hard to imagine Treliving letting Nylander remain on the team past the trade deadline without an extension close to fruition. The 27-year-old Swede is coming off the first 40-goal season of his career.
- Lastly, Treliving spoke highly today of young netminder Joseph Woll, who he believes is ready to assume the backup job behind Ilya Samsonov next season. Some wondered about Treliving’s and Keefe’s plans for the crease after inking veteran Martin Jones to a one-year, one-way deal earlier this month, but it’s clear now the Jones signing was purely for insurance purposes in case of an injury or an unexpected poor performance from Woll in camp. There is surely no room to stash Jones on the roster as a third goaltender, however, meaning he’ll very likely be exposed to waivers at the beginning of the season.
Snapshots: Nylander, International Tournaments, Stanley
Much has been made of Toronto Maple Leafs winger William Nylander‘s pending free agency, with reports indicating the two sides are far apart in contract talks. One person who isn’t worried is Nylander himself, who told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman today there’s “lots of time” to work out a deal and that he remains committed to staying in Toronto.
Of course, he may feel that way, but the team has other factors to consider. They’re balancing a tricky long-term salary cap situation with an extension needed for Auston Matthews, limiting their ability to maintain negotiations with Nylander without certainty on Matthews’ cap hit next season. New GM Brad Treliving won’t utilize Nylander as a one-year rental if they don’t get close to an extension, either – the wounds of losing Johnny Gaudreau in Calgary last season are still fresh, and Treliving will undoubtedly move Nylander before the trade deadline if there’s no extension in place.
Nylander is entering the final season of a six-year, $45MM deal he signed hours before the December 1 RFA deadline in 2018. Nylander’s reported ask for an extension is $10MM per season.
More from across the NHL sphere today:
- Speaking at the European Player Media Tour, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly once again reiterated the NHL’s desire to work with the NHLPA on an international best-on-best tournament for February 2025, whether it’s branded as a World Cup of Hockey or not. Notably, however, Daly indicated a specific plan to return to a regular schedule of international appearances, including a return to the Winter Olympics, new messaging that hasn’t been heard from an NHL official in quite a while: “So if we do a ’25 international tournament, we do the ’26 Olympics, the ’28 World Cup of Hockey, the ’30 Olympics, the ’32 World Cup of Hockey, and so on.” Since NHLPA executive director Marty Walsh assumed his post earlier this year, he’s been clear about the players’ desire to return to a consistent schedule of international tournaments.
- Despite reportedly requesting a trade earlier this year, Winnipeg Jets defenseman Logan Stanley told the Jets’ Jamie Thomas he’s “happy with how [negotiations] went” on his new one-year contract with Winnipeg and looks forward to training camp next month. Stanley alluded to his series of injuries last season, which limited him to 19 games, making it hard to get along with new head coach Rick Bowness, whom Stanley said he’ll speak to in the near future after signing his extension. It’ll be tough for Stanley to break into the lineup every game, however, especially after the Jets signed breakout defender Dylan Samberg to a longer, richer contract earlier in the summer.
East Notes: Trade Targets, Amirov Jersey Retirement, Nylander
Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander and Winnipeg Jets players Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele land atop the latest Trade Targets list from The Athletic, written by Shayna Goldman. All pending unrestricted free agents, Nylander finds himself first on the list after recording a career-high 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games last season. As Goldman notes, it’s highly unlikely a potential Nylander extension becomes top of mind for Toronto GM Brad Treliving until an extension for teammate Auston Matthews is signed, sealed and delivered.
Regarding Hellebuyck, his trade value has decreased in recent months, with teams shying away from doling out large sums of cash to bonafide starting netminders, instead looking for value options in the crease to guide them deep in the playoffs. Goldman posits, however, that it’s a method that can work only for a select few – namely Colorado and Vegas, as it has the past two seasons, given the strengths of their defense corps. While teams should be rightfully wary about handing out too much term to Hellebuyck on an extension, given he’s already 31 years old, acquiring a clear-cut elite starter is still necessary for some teams to reach championship contention. Other names on the list included Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce, Calgary Flames players Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, and Arizona Coyotes forwards Nick Schmaltz and Jason Zucker.
- In a well-deserved and meaningful gesture, KHL club Salavat Yulaev Ufa will be retiring Rodion Amirov‘s number 27 after the young forward passed away from a years-long battle with a brain tumor on Tuesday, according to The Hockey News’ David Alter. The 21-year-old Maple Leafs prospect had suited up in 70 games for his hometown team before he had to stop his playing career in 2021 to undergo cancer treatment. Reports indicate Salavat’s captain, 625-game KHL veteran Grigori Panin, initiated the decision.
- Alexander Nylander is a candidate to slide into the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top six to begin the season, says The Athletic’s Rob Rossi. The 2016 eighth-overall pick could get a look at either Sidney Crosby‘s or Evgeni Malkin‘s left wing with Jake Guentzel sidelined for the first few games of 2023-24 after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this month. Now on his third NHL organization, the 25-year-old Nylander will look to capture a full-time spot in the NHL for the first time since he played 65 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20.
Extension Candidate: William Nylander
The Toronto Maple Leafs currently stand with the most to lose entering the 2024 UFA market. A pair of star forwards, Auston Matthews and William Nylander, remain without contracts past next season, although the level of optimism surrounding extensions for each seems to be increasingly farther apart.
In actuality, rumors regarding extensions for both have been quiet over the last few weeks. But where we left off on Nylander wasn’t exactly on a positive note. Most recently, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in mid-July that negotiations were at a standstill. Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets and SDPN also believed the gap between the two parties was between $1MM and $2MM, with Nylander desiring around a $10MM AAV and the Leafs countering with an AAV between $8MM and $9MM. Nylander also had a rather strong relationship with former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, whose contract was not renewed earlier this offseason and Brad Treliving is now in his place.
There is still quite a lot of time between now and July 1, 2024, though – ten and a half months, to be exact. If the Leafs and Nylander can reconcile and work out a new deal, what could the final product be?
2022-23
The 2014 eighth-overall pick silenced most doubters last season with a career-best regular season and equally impressive playoff performance. He surpassed the 40-goal mark for the first time in his NHL career and tied for second on the team in playoff scoring with four goals. Despite a subpar reputation defensively in one-on-one situations, he’s consistently maintained strong face value and relative possession numbers, a trend that held true in 2022-23. It’s fair to say what we’re seeing now is peak Nylander, as the winger is now 27 years old and has eight seasons and over 500 games of experience under his belt. After back-to-back 80-plus point years, he’s cemented his status as a first-line caliber winger stuck at second on his team’s depth chart behind Mitch Marner.
Statistics
2022-23: 82 GP, 40 G, 47 A, 87 pts, +10 rating, 28 PIMs, 293 shots, 18:33 ATOI, 52.5% CF
Career: 521 GP, 177 G, 253 A, 430 pts, +23 rating, 134 PIMs, 1,441 shots, 17:10 ATOI, 53.8% CF
The Market
With Matthews and Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos surely set to extend with their current teams, Nylander has a legitimate claim to the title of best pending UFA with a real potential of hitting the market. That’s something he’s sure to use to his advantage in extension talks with Toronto, and with this being his big opportunity to cash in, he has no intentions of accepting a discount on a long-term deal. What Toronto won’t give him, he’ll try to find somewhere else.
It sets him up well to earn the eight-figure deal he desires, whether in Canada’s largest city or with another team. He’s likely to be money in the bank for at least 30 goals and 80 points for at least the next five to six years, assuming he stays healthy, and a rich deal like this has the rare potential to be a bargain halfway through with the pace the salary cap’s Upper Limit is expected to rise. The latter factor is one that may influence Treliving to become comfortable with the idea of committing $10MM to a fourth player in 2024-25, although it’ll still be an incredibly difficult fit under the cap expected to rise to $87.5MM. That being said, John Tavares‘ $11MM AAV deal expires in 2025, which will make it a one-season crunch if they do opt for an extension.
Comparable Contracts
Filip Forsberg (Nashville) – signed an eight-year deal worth $68MM ($8.5MM AAV) just a few days before the free agent market opened last season. It worked out to 10.3% of the salary cap at that time, which would translate to a $9MM cap hit for Nylander assuming an Upper Limit of $87.5MM when the extension kicks in. This will be Toronto’s biggest sticking point in negotiations – Forsberg was coming off an even better season than Nylander at the time (42 goals, 84 points in 69 games), had more games played than Nylander, and had scored with more consistency throughout his career. Like Nylander, Forsberg could have likely gotten more on the open market at the time.
David Pastrnak (Boston) – signed an eight-year, $90MM contract extension ($11.25MM AAV) with the Bruins amidst a 2022-23 season that saw him finish with a career-high 61 goals and 113 points, becoming the first 60-goal scorer not to win the league’s goal-scoring title since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96. They’re totals he won’t likely replicate, but he’d still shown flashes of a higher offensive ceiling than Nylander, as evidenced during his 48-goal, 95-point 2019-20 campaign, which was curtailed thanks to COVID in March. There is a sizable gap between his and Nylander’s market value, and given the recency of the extension, Pastrnak’s deal likely sets Nylander’s market cap around the $10MM he’s pushing for.
Projected Contract
Given the above comparables, there’s a fair argument to be made that Nylander won’t quite net $10MM on a seven-year deal if he becomes a free agent next summer. That’s not to say the Leafs will get what they desire on an extension, though.
In all likelihood, Nylander’s number on a max-term deal will start with a nine, which is above Toronto’s currently reported range of $8MM-$9MM. Unfortunately, meeting in the middle is not always commonplace for UFA negotiations, especially with a player on the age precipice of Nylander, who likely won’t have the opportunity for another high-paying, long-term deal after this one. He won’t have permission to speak to other teams about a deal, though. If Toronto does up their offer to something in the $9MM range, and Nylander rejects it in hopes of getting eight figures per year on the open market, it could be a decision he regrets, especially considering he’s forfeiting a year of term by signing with another team.
Treliving does have to balance this with Matthews’ pending extension and an extension for Marner before the 2024-25 season draws to a close, although Tavares’ deal expiring alongside Marner’s will give Toronto some flexibility they haven’t had for a few summers now. Nylander will also likely be eyeing Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel‘s extension situation as a more current/direct comparison for his own deal.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.