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Expansion Primer

Expansion Primer: New Jersey Devils

May 25, 2017 at 5:14 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the New Jersey Devils swung one of the biggest deals of the offseason, trading young defenseman Adam Larsson to Edmonton for former first-overall pick Taylor Hall, it suggested that the team believed it could compete in the short term with a little more added offense. Hall cost more, was older and had fewer years left on his deal and the Devils were coming off a year in which they took a step forward and finished with 84 points.

While Larsson went on a deep playoff run with the Oilers, Hall struggled through a knee injury and saw the Devils take another step backwards, unable to do much offensively. The team finished with just 70 points, but as luck would have it were selected at the lottery and will pick first in the upcoming draft. The Devils now have some interesting choices to make in regards to the expansion draft, and decide whether to expose some of their aging veterans or keep them protected for another shot at it next season.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac, Mike Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Devante Smith-Pelly, Ben Thomson, Jacob Josefson, Stefan Noesen, Beau Bennett

Defensemen:

Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, Dalton Prout, Jon Merrill, Viktor Loov, Damon Severson

Goaltenders:

Cory Schneider, Scott Wedgewood

Notable Exemptions

Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, Michael McLeod, John Quenneville, Nick Lappin, Blake Speers, Nathan Bastian, Joseph Blandisi, Yohann Auvitu, Ilya Kovalchuk

Key Decisions

The Devils will almost certainly go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme for the expansion draft, as they can’t afford to lose any of their scoring threats up front. The decision will be whether to use a slot on some of their aging veterans, or protect some younger players who haven’t lived up to their potential yet. That decision likely rests with the idea of whether or not the front office believes they can compete next year. Mike Cammalleri

Up front, the trio of Hall, Henrique and Palmieri are all in their prime and ready to compete, while Zajac is still an effective player at age 32. All four will surely be protected, even if Zajac’s contract is starting to look like a little ugly—he’ll be paid $5.75MM through his age-35 season. After that, it becomes a little less clear. The team could protect Cammalleri and hope he rebounds next season to the effective scoring threat he has been his whole career, or use that slot on a younger winger like Bennett who showed that he’s a capable NHL forward. Getting rid of Cammalleri’s $5MM cap hit isn’t a bad thing, but the Devils also don’t need the room right now. They’re heading into the summer with well over $20MM in cap space before even factoring the few million the limit may rise by.

On defense, the team has the same problem. Protecting Greene, the much beloved captain and career Devil would cause the team to decide between Moore and Merrill both of whom showed the ability to at least contribute in a depth role on the blueline. That’s assuming of course that the team would protect Severson (they will) and expose Lovejoy, who logged nearly 21 minutes a night for the team. Greene and Lovejoy will play next season at 35 and 33 respectively, and have already started their decline. Protecting either of them would be a move directly tied to next season, instead of keeping the younger defensemen.

Cory SchneiderIn net, Schneider is one of the most secure netminders in the league despite his down year, though Wedgewood is a potential option for Vegas.The 24-year old netminder returned from injury and finished the season strong for Albany, and still looks like he may have an NHL role one day in the future.

On that note, the Devils still have several issues to deal with in terms of exposure requirements. Every team needs to expose at least one goaltender who is signed through, or has received a qualifying offer for next season. Wedgewood, as a restricted free agent would need to be qualified to be allowed to protect Schneider. Each team also needs to expose at least two forwards and one defender who is signed through 2017-18 and played at least 40 games this season or 70 the past two combined. Currently the Devils would need to expose two of Hall, Zajac, Cammalleri, Palmieri, Henrique and Smith-Pelly. Even just to give themselves other options, it’s likely that a player is extended in the next few weeks.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents from a team in loo of a selection from that club, but the only one who possibly would interest them is goaltender Keith Kinkaid. Outperforming Schneider at times this season, Kinkaid now has 56 NHL starts under his belt with a solid .912 save percentage. At just 27, he may eventually land a starting job somewhere but it would be surprising to see Vegas go after him seeing as they have several more experienced options available to them through the draft.

Projected Protection List

F Taylor Hall
F Travis Zajac
F Kyle Palmieri
F Adam Henrique
F Devante Smith-Pelly
F Jacob Josefson
F Beau Bennett

D Andy Greene
D John Moore
D Damon Severson

G Cory Schneider

With no no-movement clauses tying their hands, the Devils find themselves in a fine situation going into the expansion draft. They can carefully examine their players and see who they want moving forward. Is it a real rebuild, or just a reload for a quick turnaround? Would Vegas even take one of Cammalleri or Greene, with their hefty cap hits and advanced age? The team could also make a move for a forward before the draft, and decide to protect him instead. Ilya Kovalchuk

One thing to note is that Ilya Kovalchuk, expected to return to the NHL this summer at some point will not need protection. Kovalchuk currently sits on the Voluntary Retirement List, and cannot be officially reinstated until July 1st. As he’ll technically still be retired and out of the league, he won’t need protection. This is also true, though in a different manner, for Ryane Clowe, who will be exempt due to his career-ending injury. Clowe hasn’t played since 2014-15, and even though his deal technically has a no-movement clause he was listed as exempt among other former players like Chris Pronger and David Clarkson.

The Devils will have some tough decisions to make, but luckily they are all internal. The team won’t be forced to move anyone out in order to protect a young asset, instead just evaluating their immediate future to see if it’s worth hanging on to some aging stars.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion| New Jersey Devils Expansion Primer

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Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

May 24, 2017 at 3:22 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Vancouver Canucks head into this offseason with a goal unfamiliar to fans of the team: rebuild. It’s been 16 seasons since the Sedin twins made their debuts, and in that period the Canucks have made the playoffs 11 times. Now aged 36, the duo are on a rapid decline and will now try to help the team find a new set of core players. At the deadline, the Canucks sold for the first time in many years, sending Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows off for prospects.

Despite finishing second-last in the league, the team will select fifth in this year’s entry draft, thanks to the ping-pong balls at the draft lottery. Fifth was where they selected last year as well, picking Olli Juolevi from the OHL’s London Knights; the same place they unearthed budding-star Bo Horvat a few years prior. Now heading into the expansion draft they have few issues but many options, which will be examined below.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Daniel Sedin (NMC), Henrik Sedin (NMC), Loui Eriksson (NMC), Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Jayson Megna, Reid Boucher, Michael Zalewski, Joseph Cramarossa, Bo Horvat, Michael Chaput, Brendan Gaunce

Defensemen:

Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Andrey Pedan, Alex Biega, Tom Nilsson, Erik Gudbranson

Goaltenders:

Jacob Markstrom, Richard Bachman

Notable Exemptions

Jonathan Dahlen, Brock Boeser, Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin, Troy Stecher, Jordan Subban, Olli Juolevi, Griffen Molino, Thatcher Demko

Key Decisions

While it would be hard to imagine the Canucks exposing the Sedins in the expansion draft simply because of what they have meant to the franchise over their careers, the team won’t even have to worry about it. Both the twins and Eriksson have no-movement clauses and will automatically receive protection slots, leaving the team with just four forward choices. Brendan Gaunce

What that means is likely exposure of Gaunce, just a few years removed from being selected in the first round. Gaunce spent most of the season with the Canucks for the first time in his career, but still wasn’t able to contribute much offensively. Registering just five points in 57 games, he hasn’t been able to convert his size and hockey IQ into much scoring, though at just 23 he still has time.  Gaunce is the kind of player Vegas could very well target, hoping to find some upside in a young player that hasn’t shown it yet.

There is also Dorsett, who missed most of this season after neck surgery but has been an effective bottom-six player over his career. If he’s set to be healthy by next season he could bring a veteran voice to the young Vegas club, and protect any youngsters in the lineup. The Canucks actually may hope Dorsett is picked, just to rid themselves of his $2.65MM cap hit while they turn around their team.

On defense, the Canucks will have to choose between Sbisa and Gudbranson if they don’t make a trade before the draft. GM Jim Benning paid a hefty price to bring Gudbranson in, dealing Jared McCann for the former third-overall pick last summer. Gudbranson missed most of the season following wrist surgery and has been the whipping-boy for much of the analytical movement due to his poor possession numbers, but still represents a solid NHL defender with some upside.

Luca SbisaSbisa on the other hand logged 19 minutes a night and was one of only three players (along with the Sedins) to dress for every single game this season. He is a former first-round pick himself, but has never quite seemed to live up to the potential his excellent skating ability had showed early on. He’s two years older than Gudbranson, and is an unrestricted free agent after this season (Gudbranson is an RFA this summer).

In net, Markstrom will be the protected party as Miller is set to hit free agency. Markstrom’s new three-year extension kicks in this season and will pay him $3.67MM to be the Canucks’ starting goaltender. Whether he fills that role long-term is still yet to be decided, but there is no doubt he’ll come out of the expansion draft unscathed.

As far as free agents that Vegas could target in their early window, the Canucks don’t have much of interest. Miller is really the only one that has much value on the open market, and with the amount of goaltending options Vegas has available to them he doesn’t seem much of a fit.

Projected Protection List

F Daniel Sedin (NMC)
F Henrik Sedin (NMC)
F Loui Eriksson (NMC)
F Brandon Sutter
F Sven Baertschi
F Markus Granlund
F Bo Horvat

D Alexander Edler
D Chris Tanev
D Erik Gudbranson

G Jacob Markstrom

As always, there is the chance that Vancouver makes a deal to help out their situation before the draft, perhaps moving Tanev as has been rumored lately. They could also talk one of their older Swedes into waiving a no-movement clause in order to protect Gaunce or another forward, though that would put them at risk of selection as all three still have upside and name recognition. This might not be the worst outcome for the team in Eriksson’s case, after his disastrous season in the first year of his six-year, $36MM deal. He’ll turn 32 this summer, and likely won’t be much help to the team when they’re ready to compete again.

In all, the Canucks don’t find themselves in a horrible position, but losing one of Gaunce or Sbisa for nothing isn’t a perfect scenario. There are many ways they could avoid it, including making a side deal with Vegas to have them select a different player that may not be as beneficial. Vegas GM George McPhee has already admitted several teams have contacted him about this method, and he’s willing to listen if it provides his team with an asset.

This list could change drastically by next season, but with the majority of their young talent ineligible to be taken, the Canucks will continue their rebuild as planned this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion| Free Agency| Jim Benning| Prospects| RFA| Vancouver Canucks Expansion Primer

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Expansion Primer: Arizona Coyotes

May 23, 2017 at 4:33 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After going to the playoffs three consecutive years from 2010-12 the Arizona Coyotes have taken a sharp downturn in recent years, culminating in another disappointing season in 2016-17. They finished in 28th place with just 70 points, and unfortunately dropped all the way to seventh in the upcoming draft. Since most of their impressive assets are still very young, the team shouldn’t have much trouble protecting their future in the upcoming expansion draft. They do however have some interesting names that may be taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder, Brad Richardson, Josh Jooris, Mitchell Moroz, Tyler Gaudet, Peter Holland, Brandan Troock, Jeremy Morin, Jordan Martinook, Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Duclair, Teemu Pulkkinen

Defensemen:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski (NMC), Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn, Kevin Connauton

Goaltenders:

Mike Smith, Louis Domingue

Notable Exemptions

Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Brendan Perlini, Nick Merkley

Key Decisions

Like the Colorado Avalanche who we profiled yesterday, the Coyotes have more than enough protection slots to go around up front. Unlike the Avalanche though, who have a tough situation on defense the Coyotes will more than likely use the 7-3-1 method, allowing them to protect all of their valuable contracts.

Up front, the Coyotes amazingly have just three players signed for next season who are eligible to be taken, though several other restricted free agents will warrant protection. With seven slots, they actually have enough to even acquire another player or two without putting anything of true value at risk. Holland, Martinook, and Jooris all have shown various levels of upside in their NHL time, while others like Pulkkinen have performed well at the AHL level.

Because of the extremely few veterans signed for next season, the Coyotes actually still have some work to do. Each team needs to expose at least two forwards who are under contract for 2017-18 and played in at least 40 games this season of 70 the past two. McGinn, Rieder and Richardson are the only three who are signed, meaning another player will need a contract before the draft happens. Jooris is the most likely for this, as he doesn’t project as one of their current protected forwards but does fill the requirement. "<strong

On defense the biggest loss would likely be Schenn, the former fifth-overall pick who is now on his fourth organization without ever living up to the shut-down billing he had coming out of the WHL. If the team was worried that Vegas might take him—and there is definitely a chance the team would, seeing as he is a cheap 27-year old with more than 600 games under his belt already—and they really didn’t want that, they could go with the eight skaters method and protect four defensemen, though it seems very unlikely.

In net, Smith is a near-lock to be protected after the team refused to discuss him at the deadline despite his excellent season. GM John Chayka had this to say at the time:

We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded.  At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.

That does make Domingue an interesting option for Vegas, as the former fifth-round pick has turned in two solid seasons in part-time duty. While he doesn’t have the same immediate upside of Antti Raanta or Philipp Grubauer (two goaltenders who may also be exposed), Domingue is only 25 and costs just over $1MM for next season.

"<strongIt’s important to note that Dave Bolland, Craig Cunningham and Chris Pronger, all of whom are technically still on the Arizona payroll are exempt from the draft due to their career-ending injuries. Pronger has in fact already been inducted to the Hall of Fame, and currently works for the Department of Player Safety. Pavel Datsyuk, whose rights were acquired at the draft last year is also on the books and has a no-movement clause, but will not need protection because of his expiring cap-hit and status as a retired player.

Vegas will have a chance to speak to the pending free agents for the Coyotes like any other team, and there is the possibility they could go after Radim Vrbata instead of any exposed player. Vrbata had a solid season in the desert, leading the Coyotes with 55 points. At 35 he’s clearly past his prime, but for a team that will severely lack scoring ability he may be an interesting option. Shane Doan is also a free agent as of this moment, but it seems unlikely that he would go to Vegas for the end of his career—if it’s not over already—after making it clear he only wanted a trade to a potential Stanley Cup contender at the deadline.

Projected Protection List

F Jamie McGinn
F Tobias Rieder
F Peter Holland
F Jordan Martinook
F Alexander Burmistrov
F Anthony Duclair
F Teemu Pulkkinen

D Alex Goligoski (NMC)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D Connor Murphy

G Mike Smith

In all, the Coyotes sit in outstanding shape going into the expansion draft without much to lose. Since all of their highly-touted assets are still too young to be eligible, they’ve actually put themselves in a situation to acquire a player or two before the draft from a team in a worse situation.

Though they aren’t likely to compete next season, they could easily add young players to their core this summer to make their team substantially better. Like the acquisition of Crouse last summer in exchange for Bolland’s contract, or the draft-finagling to move up and get Chychrun, Chayka and the Coyotes front office is headed in the right direction. It would be surprising to not see them take advantage of their protection slots and ample cap space again over the next few weeks.

While this list reflects the roster as it is today, it could clearly change as the team makes the decision on who to extend or a deal to bring someone in. As it sits, Schenn or Domingue look like the toughest losses, which won’t really inspire much excitement among Golden Knights fans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion| John Chayka| Utah Mammoth| Vegas Golden Knights| WHL Expansion Primer| Wayne Gretzky

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Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

May 22, 2017 at 1:21 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 with one of the worst records in recent memory, winning just 22 games and seeing just a single player reach the 20-goal mark. As if their year could get any worse, they fell three spots in the draft lottery and will be required like everyone else to give up a player to the incoming Vegas Golden Knights.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Troy Bourke, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, Sven Andrighetto, Matthew Nieto, Rocco Grimaldi, Felix Girard, Mike Sislo, Turner Elson

Defensemen:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Mark Barberio, Eric Gelinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Nikita Zadorov

Goaltenders:

Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard

Notable Exemptions

J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, A.J. Greer, Andrei Mironov, Chris Bigras

Key Decisions

The Avalanche are in an enviable position when it comes to forwards, where many of their core pieces are still exempt due to the rebuilding nature of the club. It’s not so rosy on defence though, as both Johnson and Beauchemin hold no-movement clauses and thus require protection. Should the team be able to convince one of them—namely Beauchemin, since Johnson still at least represents some trade value—to waive their clause, they could use the 7-3-1 protection format. Otherwise they’ll likely have to go with the eight skater route or risk losing one of Zadorov or Barrie.

That would leave them with just four slots up front which isn’t ideal, but at least could protect the future and biggest trade pieces. That is assuming they don’t move Duchene or Landeskog before the draft, which would open up another spot for a younger player like Grimaldi or Andrighetto. Another option would be a buyout once the first window opens on June 15th, though Beauchemin—the most likely recipient—signed his latest contract after he turned 35 and thus the Avalanche would incur the whole $4.5MM cap hit next season regardless. Calvin Pickard

In net there sits the team’s most important decision. Whether or not to protect Varlamov or Pickard has been much debated, with reports coming out previously that the team will keep the former. After two solid seasons backing up, Pickard struggled at times in the increased role this year when Varlamov went down to injury. That’s not to say the young goaltender doesn’t have a bright future as he recently showed, backstopping Team Canada to a silver medal in the recent World Championships. He was given player of the game honors for Canada in their 2-1 shootout loss to Team Sweden in the gold medal game, and recorded a .938 save percentage in the tournament.

From each team, Vegas is also given the opportunity to talk to pending free agents before the draft. If they should come to an agreement with one, they would forfeit their selection from his former team. The Avalanche don’t really have any UFA targets that would be of much interest, though perhaps 25-year old Brendan Ranford provides some. The Group VI free agent has only played a single game in the NHL, but has proven to be a successful AHL scorer. If for some reason the Golden Knights believe they won’t be able to sign him—or any of the Avalanche UFAs—after July 1st, they could forego their selection entirely.

Projected Protection List

F Nathan MacKinnon
F Matt Duchene
F Gabriel Landeskog
F Mikhail Grigorenko

D Erik Johnson (NMC)
D Francois Beauchemin (NMC)
D Tyson Barrie
D Nikita Zadorov

G Semyon Varlamov

While Colorado is one of the most likely teams to make a move before the deadline, this is how the protection list currently projects for them. The Avalanche could also make a deal with the Golden Knights to take a player like Soderberg off their hands, who suffered an inexplicable drop-off in effectiveness this season. With three more seasons on his current contract, his $4.75MM cap hit is certainly one the Avalanche would love to rid themselves of as they continue their rebuild.

In all, Pickard looks like the worst loss the Avalanche could incur at this point and with several weeks still before the draft they may be able to solve that issue. The Golden Knights should have their fair share of goaltenders available to them, many of which they may feel more comfortable drafting. The Avalanche will continue to look forward with their group of “untouchables” which includes MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost, each of whom are at no risk of being selected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Colorado Avalanche| Expansion| Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Primer

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